大馬財經 原產品行情 財經焦點 2008-07-11 11:01
（吉隆坡）6月份原棕油庫存寫25年新高，在出口下滑中突破200萬公噸水平，由於棕油為經濟成長主要支柱，庫存創25新高為大馬暗晦經濟展望更添陰霾。
分析員擔心出口增長追不上庫存水平，大馬原棕油期貨後市展望吃緊。
庫存按月增長6.38%
大馬棕油局今日（週四，10日）出爐的數據顯示，6月份庫存增至203萬5353公噸，較5月份調整後的191萬3360公噸，按月增長6.38%，雖沒有達到《路透社》調查的上漲9.8%至210萬公噸嚴重，但也是25年新高。
原棕油期貨市場今日賣壓嚴重，投資者看淡大馬原棕油期貨後勢，基準9月貨早盤大跌25令吉或0.7%至3490美元，午盤在買盤支撐下縮窄跌幅，以3511令吉作收，跌4令吉。較今年3月4日的4486令吉歷史水平回掉21.73%。
其餘月貨跌幅介於5至53令吉，遠期交易跌幅凌厲，2009年1月獲大跌53令吉至3497令吉。
市場擔心，原棕油作為支撐經濟重要支柱，出口下滑和馬政治欠穩定，將讓馬幣單位的原棕油期貨吸引力大減，長期則影響經濟表現。棕油目前已經成為大馬出口成長的主要貢獻之一。
6月原棕油出口下跌至111萬9886公噸，按月跌6.7%，超越《路透社》預測的115萬公噸，產量僅微增0.8%至146萬8921公噸，比預測的153萬公噸稍高。
兩家獨立調查公司數據，進一步加劇不樂觀看法，7月首10天的原棕油按月下滑1.3和16.2%。
Intertek Testing服務公司的數據顯示，今年7月1日至10天日原棕油出口，按月下跌1.3%至35萬5154公噸，6月首10天的出口為36萬公噸；SGS公司的下滑數據更高，從6月的38萬9300噸，大掉16.2%至32萬6109公噸。該公司的圖表顯示今年5月起，每月首10天原棕油出口連續跌了兩月，5月和6月分別減3.8和12.5%。
亞歐美研究：種植領域維持減碼
亞歐美研究維持種植領域的“減碼”評級，並保留原棕油行情今年見頂和回跌的預測。
該行指出，原產品包括原棕油行情一路狂飆，引起全球性通膨和食糧短缺危機，估計將於近期出現顯著回調，一些國家或入場干預原產品濃厚炒風，或冷卻過熱的通膨走勢。
全球對食用油生物燃料原料需求吃緊，棕指期貨過去1年漲升逾33%，然而出口下跌無法消化庫存高企，將削弱進一步上漲動力。
同時，原油和其他植物油行情回跌，也進一步加速原棕油的下滑趨勢。
另一方面，持不同意見的交易商，則看好原棕油出口7月中恢復動力，主要是中國、印度和中東買家，將從9月初開始增加進口，以囤積應付年杪系列宗教節慶的需求。
達證券分析員詹姆斯拉惹勒南認為，每年年中的5月至8月是原棕油出口放緩週期，最後一季則是上升週期。
他認為出口只是按月下跌，若按年計出扣仍上升14%，對衝擊大馬經濟仍言之過早，須看若未來2個月的出口表現而定。
他估計，6月出口下跌主要是中國需求放緩，不排除是轉向大豆油。無論如何，中國對原棕油的長期需求仍穩定，因為大豆油和原棕油價差繼續擴大，而原棕油仍是最價廉的植物油。
亞歐美研究建議“售出”IOI集團（IOICORP，1961；主板種植組），持有森那美（SIME，4197；主板貿服組）和亞地種植（ASIATIC，2291；主板種植組），價格高企不下的吉隆坡甲洞（KLK，2445；主板種植組），估值已全面反映在股價。
該行建議買進小資本種植股，包括TH種植（THPLANT，5112；主板種植組）、貿易風種植（TWSPLNT，6327；主板種植組）和合成（HAPSENG，3034；主板貿服組）。
1/7至10/7大馬棕油出口數據：產量（噸）
原棕油：15,996
精煉棕油：65,079
精煉棕油軟脂油：158,790
精煉棕油硬脂油：28,476
原棕仁油：3,700
提煉棕仁油：15,881
油脂：5,235
（資料來源：路透社，SGS市場調查公司）
大馬原棕油主要出口市場：需求量（噸）
中國：115,577
美國：50,055
歐盟區：25,451
巴基斯坦：18,650
韓國：16,500
（資料來源：路透社，SGS市場調查公司）
星洲日報／財經‧2008.07.11
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osk SECTOR UPDATE
11jul08 PLANTATION OVERWEIGHT Sector Update- MPOB June 08 Statistics.pdf
MPOB June ’08 Statistics
Malaysia’s June palm oil inventory level hit a new record of 2.035m tonnes on slower exports, particularly to China. We believe this is a temporary phenomenon as China is meeting its domestic edible oil needs by drawing on its strategic reserves, which will eventually need to be replenished. We also believe the shortfall in soybean oil will result in higher demand for palm oil in the months ahead. We maintain an Overweight sector call.
Production marginally higher. June production came in at 1.469m tonnes, up by just 0.8% m-o-m but sharply higher than the 1.166m tonnes produced in June last year. Production in Sabah fell 1% to 483k tonnes but this was adequately compensated by output from the peninsula and Sarawak. The mid-cycle dip is not unusual as it also occurred last year although it only happened in Sabah this time around. Y-td, production totaled 8.201m tonnes compared with 6.679m tonnes last year on account of the weather.
Exports down on China. Exports fell 80.6k tonnes, or 6.7% m-o-m, to 1.120m tonnes as China’s purchases dropped 77.5k tonnes, hence contributing to the bulk of the drop in exports. Exports to major importers such as the Netherlands, Pakistan and the US were higher by 10.0k tonnes, 7.5k tonnes and 22.7k tonnes respectively. Meanwhile, India’s purchases were flattish. We found it encouraging that exports to Russia hit a new high at 36.3k tonnes.
From what we understand, exports to China has slowed substantially from its peak of 390k tonnes in March this year due to increased usage from its state reserves in an attempt to stabilise food prices. However, this means its edible oil reserve level is falling and will need to be replenished eventually, especially with increased consumption during the Olympics. On a y-t-d basis, China’s imports of Malaysian palm oil are still up by 9.9%.
Inventory at record high. Malaysia’s palm oil inventory level hit a new high of 2.035m tonnes due to a production increase of 1.522m tonnes this year but exports were up only by 0.882m tonnes as China held back on its purchases.
CPO price outlook. CPO price averaged RM3,499/t this year based on MPOB prices for Peninsular Malaysia. We believe CPO price will at least sustain at current levels for the rest of the year and our average CPO price assumption of RM3,500/t will be achieved. Admittedly, it is taking a little longer than expected for the inventory level to decline but we believe this is a matter of when, and not if a reduction in soybean oil supply from US will need to be compensated by other edible oils. Also, China will inevitably have to start increasing its purchases.
Crosswinds from crude oil. Palm oil prices as well as plantation stocks have come under pressure as the market has become increasingly concerned about peaking crude oil prices. Logically speaking, there is no direct link between palm and crude oil as biodiesel had stopped being viable from last year. Nevertheless, since the start of 2007, palm oil prices had been rising in tandem with crude oil price, hence there are concerns that it will decline with a drop in crude oil as well. While we think it is difficult for palm oil to resist any downward pressure from crude oil, the downside for palm will be relatively limited. This is because over the past 3 months palm oil price had stayed flat although crude oil had repeatedly hit record highs. As a result, palm oil is only US$70/t more expensive than crude oil, which is a very low spread compared with an average of US$189/t last year and US$246/t this year.
Assuming that last year’s average of $189/t is sustainable, the downside for CPO is at US$922/t, or RM2,997, in the event crude oil falls to US$100 per barrel. Looking at it in reverse, the current CPO price is discounting crude oil at US$120 per barrel based on a US$189/t spread. If this year’s average spread of US$246 is to hold, the downside for CPO will be at RM3,182/t. This will happen only if palm oil ignores its own fundamentals.
We do not think a negative spread between palm oil with crude oil such as that in 2006 will arise again as biodiesel economics will come into play to at least force palm oil to trade at parity to crude oil. This will be true if energy is the only use for palm oil. However, since the dominant usage for palm oil is for food and conversion to biodiesel represents additional demand for palm oil, it is not difficult to justify palm oil’s premium to crude oil.
Maintain Overweight. We continue to Overweigh the sector with Buy calls maintained for IOI Corp (TP RM8.75), Asiatic (TP RM10.90), KLK (TP RM18.55), Kulim (TP RM13.80), IJM Plantations (TP RM5.95) and Golden Agri Resources (TP SG$1.37).
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11 Jul 2008 Plantation update Inventory hits new high but misses estimates.pdf
Palm oil stocks hit another record,.. Weaker exports pushed Malaysia’s palm oil stocks up 6.4% mom to a new record of 2.04m tonnes in Jun 08.
… but miss market expectations. Despite being a new record, the inventory level fell 2.8% short of market expectations of 2.1m tonnes, based on a Reuters poll. The reason is the lower-than-expected output. The latest statistics are a mild positive as they suggest that inventories are tighter than market expectations.
Structural changes bump up stock level. We believe that the high inventory level is partly attributable to structural changes in trade and government policies rather than a lack of demand. Malaysia has been importing more palm oil from Indonesia this year. We also gather that consuming countries are holding less inventory due to higher working capital, volatile prices and government intervention.
Widening price gap between palm and soybean oil. Demand has not kept up with production, thus capping the upside for CPO price and leading to a yawning price discount to soya oil from an average of US$100/tonne in 2000-2007 to US$400 currently. This is the widest price gap and augurs well for palm oil demand when price-sensitive buyers start to stock up ahead of the Deepavali and Ramadan festive season.
Price outlook for 3Q08. Crude oil price movements and new US soybean crop developments are likely to dictate CPO prices in 3Q. Unless there are adverse weather conditions in major crop areas, we expect CPO price to be volatile and trade between RM3,000 and RM3,600 during the quarter, assuming that crude oil price continues to trade at US$110-140 per barrel. We maintain our 2008 CPO price forecast of RM3,350 per tonne, which is conservative as it assumes an average CPO price of RM3,222 in 2H08.
No change to earnings forecasts. Although these palm oil stats are mildly positive, we see no reason to change our CPO price forecasts of RM3,350 per tonne for 2008 and RM3,000 for 2009. But over the next 1-2 weeks, we will be reviewing our earnings projections for our universe of plantation companies to account for recent movements in fuel and fertiliser costs and changes in windfall tax.
Maintain OVERWEIGHT call. We remain OVERWEIGHT on the sector but maintain our cautious short-term stance due to concern over the highly volatile crude oil price, biofuel policy risk in EU and high foreign shareholdings for the listed planter. On a more positive note, this sector remains a bastion against political risk and uncertain market conditions. IOI Corp stays our pick of the big-cap planters while Asiatic holds that position among the mid-cap planters.
MPOB stats for June 08
Palm oil stocks hit another record... Weaker exports pushed Malaysia’s palm oil stocks up 6.4% mom to 2.04m tonnes in Jun 08. This is the country’s highest-ever palm oil stock level since MPOB started compiling its data in the 1980s.
… but miss market expectations. Despite being a new record, the inventory level fell 2.8% short of market expectations of 2.1m tonnes, based on a Reuters poll. The reason is the lower-than-expected output. The latest statistics are a mild positive as they suggest that inventories are tighter than market expectations.
Figure 1: Monthly palm oil stats (Jun 08)
Output recovers from tree stress and poor weather. Production inched up 0.8% mom even though production in June tends to be lower than in May. On yoy basis, output rose 26% as FFB yields and OER recovered from tree stress and flooding towards the end-06. For the first six months of 2008, CPO output from Malaysia increased 22.7% to 8.2m tonnes, thanks to improved weather and better yields. This is 12.5% higher than MPOB’s forecast of 7.3m tonnes.
Figure 2: Palm oil output recovers from tree stress and poor weather (‘000 tonnes)
Seasonal slowdown in exports not a surprise. In Jun, Malaysian palm oil exports fell 6.7% mom due to seasonal factors. Typically, exports are low in 2Q as there are no festive events and buyers normally stay on the sidelines during this period in anticipation of lower prices during Jul-Sep when production is seasonally higher. On yoy basis, exports advanced 18.7% in Jun, clearly indicating that demand has improved despite a 40% yoy jump in CPO price to RM3,595 per tonne. Strangely, palm oil shipments to China fell 25% mom. We suspect that the Chinese government released edible oil reserves to large edible oil refiners. Also, shipments to southern China may have been delayed by severe flooding towards the middle of June. On a more positive note, we observe stronger demand from the EU, Pakistan and the US due to higher biodiesel usage, lower import tariffs and trans-fat labelling requirements in the US.
Outlook
Structural changes in trades and government policies bump up stock level,... We believe that the high inventory level is partly attributable to structural changes in trade and government policies rather than a lack of demand. Firstly, Malaysia has been importing more palm oil from Indonesia due to the new export tax regime. In 1H08, palm oil imports shot up 98% or 144,892 tonnes to 287,000 tonnes. Secondly, we also gather that consuming countries are holding less inventory due to higher working capital and volatile prices. This is evident from the reported stock level in Rotterdam bonded warehouses, which showed a 40% drop in palm oil stocks from end-Mar 08 to 105,000 tonnes as at end-Jun 08. Also, China’s Assistant Minister of Commerce recently stated that the country will increase the use of reserve edible oils to control rising vegetable oil price. This suggests a lower inventory level in China, the largest consumer of imported edible oils. Lastly, the Jun 08 stock level represents 1.82 months of export coverage, which is not a record though it is on the high end of the historical range.
Figure 4: Malaysian palm oil stocks rising as more stocks are kept at producing countries
Figure 5: Malaysia’s closing stock/export ratio below record in 2007 (x)
… widening price discount between palm and soybean. Demand has not kept up with production, thus capping the upside for CPO price and leading to a yawning price discount against soya oil from an average of US$100/tonne in 2000-2007 to US$400 currently. This is the widest price gap ever and augurs well for palm oil demand when price-sensitive buyers start to stock up ahead of the Deepavali and Ramadan festive season in Sep-Oct. The current high crude oil price is also expected to spur biodiesel production and boost edible oil demand. On the production front, palm oil estates in Malaysia have been registering above average FFB yields for the past 10 months. Going by history, these estates could suffer from biological tree stress in 4Q08. These two factors will limit the upside to inventory levels when palm oil output hits its seasonal peak in Jul-Sep.
CPO futures fell on negative export data for first 10 days of July. CPO futures fell by around RM4-27 per tonne yesterday as two private surveyors released weak palm oil data for the first 10 days of July, offsetting the slightly positive Jun palm oil stats. According to Societe General de Surveillance, exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July 1-10 fell 16.2% to 326,109 tonnes from 389,300 tonnes shipped from June 1- 10. Intertek Testing Services reported that exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July 1-10 dropped 1.3% to 355,154 tonnes from 360,000 tonnes shipped from June 1- 10.
Price outlook for 3Q08. CPO price surged 60% yoy from RM2,174 to RM3,478 per tonne in 1H08, pushed up by tight global edible oil supplies, regulatory issues and poor weather in some key edible oil regions. Crude oil price movements and new US soybean crop developments are likely to dictate CPO prices in 3Q. Unless there are adverse weather conditions in major crop areas, we expect CPO price to be volatile and trade between RM3,000 and RM3,600 during the quarter, assuming that crude oil price continues to trade at US$110-140 per barrel. We maintain our 2008 CPO price forecast of RM3,350 per tonne, which is conservative as it assumes an average CPO price of RM3,222 in 2H08.
Figure 6: Widening price gap between palm and soyaoil (US$/tonne)
Valuation and recommendation
No change to earnings forecast. Although these palm oil stats are mildly positive, we see no reason to change our CPO price forecasts of RM3,350 per tonne for 2008 and RM3,000 for 2009. But over the next 1-2 weeks, we will be reviewing our earnings projections for our universe of plantation companies to account for recent movements in fuel and fertiliser costs and changes in windfall tax.
Maintain OVERWEIGHT call. We remain OVERWEIGHT on the sector but maintain our cautious short-term stance due to concern over the highly volatile crude oil price, biofuel policy risk in EU and high foreign shareholdings for the listed planters. On a more positive note, this sector remains a bastion against political risk and uncertain market conditions. IOI Corp stays as our pick of the big-cap planters for the liquidity of its shares, capital management potential and share buyback programme. For exposure to mid-cap planters, we like Asiatic Development.