Get this man a blog!

I hope that Pakistani Major Mehar Omar Khan doesn't stop composing intriguing articles when he finishes his stint at the US Army's Command and General Staff College (CGSC). Last week, we were treated to his essay "Is There an Islamic Way of War?", apparently written in response to a CGSC class entitled "An Islamic Way of War?" (note the question mark). Major Khan posits the thesis that Islam is, in most cases, not the root cause of terrorism and insurgency throughout the Muslim world. In Major Khan's view, most insurgency is localized and fought for more pragmatic reasons. For example, while the insurgency in Iraq often used Islamic imagery and rhetoric, much of the violence was actually waged over cultural, economic, and political differences.

What is often referred to as an "Islamic" way of war is more correctly a rise of non-state movements, such as insurgencies and terrorist organizations, which are coincidentally located within the Islamic world. Indeed, these methods are little more than time-tested techniques which smaller organizations use to defeat larger organizations. The insurgency we see in the Muslim world doesn't differ too much from insurgencies in Asia and Latin America, nor does terrorism seem to be too far removed from the IRA in Northern Ireland. Major Khan notes:

The world may have changed its attitudes towards [liberation] movements, but people’s yearning for their right to freedom and self-determination in regions like Kashmir, Chechnya and Occupied Palestine has been documented in the annals of organizations like UNO and others as a legitimate aspiration. Their efforts have been both peaceful as well as violent. But that trend is no different from legendary American militias fighting for their independence against the colonial British or, more recently, people of Northern Ireland fighting against the English. Coincidentally, since in all these places, Muslim subjects are up against Hindu (Kashmir/India), Orthodox Christian (Chechnya/Russia) and Jewish (Palestine/Israel) occupiers, a tinge of religion is bound to appear in the politics surrounding these issues. Is it then fair to call subjects’ struggle as a religious war but stop short of attaching religion to the guilt of occupation? It hurts to even imagine that Jesus Christ inspired Sinn Fein to bomb Belfast and London or Lord Krishna taught Hindu Tamil Tigers of Sri Lanka to commit hundreds of suicide bombings or some God in the shining sky inspired Japanese Kamikazes to hurl themselves into allied ships sailing into their coasts to seal their independence. Why apply different terms of debate to different places and people?

Certainly, any religion can be warped into an instrument of hate, repression and ignorance; just witness the dark side of Christianity, which includes the Inquisition, slavery and geocentrism. As Major Khan summarizes:

For the sake of God, let’s keep God out of our games. No religion condones, let alone approves, bloodshed. Despite all the sublime words written in scriptures and said by Prophets, the so-called adherents of all ‘faiths’ have consistently done and said things that deserve the wrath of our Lord. Let’s admit that war is a necessary evil and there are weak sides just as there are strong ones. The tactics adopted is a function of relative power. Each side does a sprinkling of God to lift the spirits of stupid men and women about to die.

Well put. The 4GW world is far more complex than simple religious caricatures. Seriously, I hope Major Khan starts up a blog or gets a regular weekly roundup in SWJ. I'm really enjoying his work.

And, just for clarification...

Courtesy of Jenna (via Google Reader), we are reminded that al-Qaeda affiliates (e.g., al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, al-Qaeda in Iraq, etc) are not quite the real al-Qaeda Central (in Pakistan). For a brief primer, check out this post in a great Middle Eastern blog, The Majlis.

I almost think that renaming each regional terror organization "al-Qaeda" is actually a global misinformation and deception campaign against the West. And I'm not entirely sarcastic when I say that, either (note bin Laden's words, starting with "two mujahadeen fighters".

I can guarantee that this will never happen...

...because it makes too much damn sense.

Boss Mongo came up with a modest proposal for our various law enforcement and intelligence agencies in order to help keep known terrorists out of the US. Unlike other "modest proposals", this isn't sarcastic or over-the-top in the least...it's simple, it doesn't violate anyone's rights, it's unobtrusive, and it's cheap. Which leads me to believe that it won't happen...

Mongo notes that the would-be underwear bomber, named Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, has an Arabic-based name which, when transcribed into a Latin-based alphabet ("Romanized"), results in all sorts of possible spellings. As Mongo points out, this is the case with many Arabic names (look at the 37 possible spellings of Qadaffi's name). It would be relatively simple for someone to fabricate numerous forms of identification based on multiple spellings, greatly complicating searches for a known terrorist's name in databases.

Mongo's ingenious--and relatively simple--solution involves some knowledge of basic Arabic, and permits one to easily search for multiple spellings for one Arabic-based name. TSA take note: this is a far better security precaution than banning bathroom breaks and Amazon Kindles in the last hour of the flight.

Just when you thought Holiday air travel couldn't get any worse...

...a terrorist with suspected links to al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) attempts to blow up an Airbus en route to Detroit, Michigan. And I thought being in Reagan International on the 23rd of December was bad...

One blog in particular has some great updates on this recent development. "Al-Sahwa" (Arabic for "The Awakening", in reference to the Awakening movements in Anbar Province in Iraq) is run by a number of Army captains who seem to spend their time blogging on counterinsurgency and national security issues due to extreme boredom in their captains career course (I deeply sympathize). On Christmas Day, no less, a poster by the name of Pat Ryan posted extensively on the recent happenings in the skies over Detroit:

It appears the the recent US-Yemeni operations targeting AQAP in various parts of Yemen have stirred up the hornet's nest...

Northwest Airlines 253 (originating from Amsterdam) was the site today of a failed attempt to detonate some sort of Improvised Explosive Device (IED). The Wall Street Journal reports that after the plane landed in Detroit, TSA and FBI officials quickly took one individual into custody and were interviewing all passengers. Although full details are yet to emerge, initial reports say that the man had some sort of IED strapped to his leg and attempted to detonate the device in midair. The device malfunctioned and started a small fire.

According to the WSJ, the man told officials that he had been given the IED by an AQ (or AQ-affiliated) operative based in Yemen and was acting on their instructions. If true, this would show the ability of AQAP to extend their reach beyond the wider Arabian Peninsula into the West and the US specifically. It also clearly raises questions of physical security vulnerabilities on flights originating from international locations.

Obviously, this story is still unfolding, so details will likely be sketchy for the next few days. However, I found it interesting that Pat linked the AQAP-inspired attack over Detroit to a recent series of successful raids against AQAP in Yemen over the last week. On Thursday, 24 December, the Yemeni military launched a massive combined operaton on AQAP operatives, and are suspected of killing the top two AQAP leaders in Yemen, as well as Anwar al-Alwaki , a radical Muslim cleric who had regular e-mail contact with Major Nidal Hasan, the Fort Hood shooter. In total, the 24 December operation produced the following results, according to Saba News, the official Yemeni news organization (H/T Long War Journal and al-Sahwa):

Anti-terrorism troops launched in the early hours of Thursday [24 December 2009] air and ground raids against al-Qaeda hideouts and training sites in Abyan in the south and in Sana'a in the north killing and arresting about 51 al Qaeda suspects, including foreigners.

Between 24-30 plotters were killed and caught in Abyan in the south, four killed and four arrested in Arahab district north of the capital, and 13 were seized in the capital of Sana'a.

The 24 December attack comes shortly after an American cruise missile attack 17 December. This strike was directed against three separate targets in Yemen, and is suspected of killing over 120, according to Yemeni officials.

The correlation is disturbing, but the attacker's isolated actions, and the relative incompetence of the operation may be an indication of an AQAP organization on the ropes. Let's hope so. The links between recent American/Yemen success and this recent botched plot are better than the theory I had about a Christmas event having great psychological effect, although it's not entirely without precedent this holiday season, what with a Taliban video of PFC Bowe Bergdahl surfacing just yesterday.

Waq al-Waq, a blog specializing in the Iranian- and AQ-backed insurgency in Yemen, has been quiet over the last few days, but should have great information coming out of the area.

When life gives you lemons, put them in a Corona bottle…

The big news over the past few days has been al Qaeda's threats against Germany, possibly in an attempt to influence the elections. Obviously, they weren't particularly successful as Angela Merkel was recently re-elected this week.

Al Qaeda, in an attempt to dissuade the Germans from participating in Afghanistan, offered the following proclamation:

[Afghanistan is not] a beer tent to celebrate Oktoberfest in all year round."

Christ, with the 3600-man German contingent in Afghanistan consuming nearly a million pints of beer over the course of a year, it's kind of hard to tell the difference. Nevertheless, the police presence has been increased this month, particularly in Munich, where Oktoberfest is primarily celebrated. Indeed, only a dastardly organization like al Qaeda would seek to defile a holiday dedicated to drinking beer. Fortunately, there's an upside to the threats and increased police presence:

Susanne Seitz, 30, a communications manager from Munich in a black "dirndl", a traditional southern German dress, agreed: "It won't spoil the party, people are having just as good a time as they have always done."

"The police are clearly doing all they can to protect us, but if it happens, I don't think there is really very much anyone can do about it," Seitz told AFP.

"On a lighter side, police have virtually stopped fining people for being drunk on their bikes or not having their lights on while cycling, they seem to be more pre-occupied about catching the terrorists."

Ha, take that, Nanny State!

Chapter XVI: Whether it is better to fear or love butt bombs...

The US Naval Institute’s blog carries a number of fascinating posts—some regard naval history, some regard the nature of 4GW and the OODA loop. And then, we have some which primarily regard the use of what the authors refer to as “butt bombs”.

A little background: A recent al Qaeda plot involved the attempted suicide bombing of Saudi Arabia’s counter-terrorism minister. The attacker hid the explosives not in a suicide vest, but rather, as some news sources refer to it, in his “anal cavity”. The attack was ultimately unsuccessful; with the attacker eliminating himself from the gene pool after a fellow al Qaeda operative sent him a text message, detonating the cell phone-triggered explosives, and left the counter-terrorism minister shaken, but not stirred. Al Qaeda must be running out of ideas—this was used in the last Batman movie, The Dark Knight—only without the bomb in someone’s ass. The Joker, as you will recall, detonates a bomb hidden inside someone’s chest cavity after being granted his phone call, facilitating his escape. (The guys at Defense and the National Interest have a great analysis of that movie’s application to 4GW.)

When we first heard about this, we responded with raucous laughter, and we even made a little song about the event. Seriously, the lyrics were “Let’s have some fun, this beat is sick/I wanna take a ride on a dynamite stick”. Okay, it’s not exactly that original, sue me.

Anyway, the USNI quotes Dr. Mike Waller of politicalwarfare.org on the potential IO spin we could potentially put on al Qaeda’s use of anal explosives:

Al Qaeda has flummoxed security experts with its new tactic of evading detection systems by hiding explosives and detonators inside the bodies of suicide bombers.

The method redefines what it is to be an “assassin.”

The new trick came to light last month in a Saudi palace when an Al Qaeda operative, claiming to want to surrender, exploded in a failed attempt to murder the Saudi prince in charge of counterterrorism operations. The terrorist stuffed a pound of explosives and a detonator up his behind (or perhaps one of his buddies did it for him) in order to foil bomb detectors.

What I’m about to propose is gross and disgusting and downright insensitive. But it’s culturally appropriate. And it’s a quick, inexpensive way to see if we can damage terrorist recruitment and neutralize this new and dangerous Al Qaeda murder tactic. So here goes.

Rather than get alarmed about lacking the technical means to detect such bomb smugglers, we should use Arab and Islamic (and generally universal, lowbrow, adolescent) cultural traits to make terrorists too ashamed and embarrassed to turn their bottoms into bombs. And to humiliate their supporters.

This tactic is begging for ridicule. Terrorists hate being ridiculed. Sexually repressed young men hate being ridiculed. Islamist extremists hate being ridiculed. Mockery stains their honor. Most terrorists are sexually repressed Islamist extremist young men.

Therefore, it’s time for the US and its allies, as well as the Saudis, to turn on the laughs by making fun of the butt-bombers. We can all think of ways to ridicule these weirdos in English – oh, the metaphors are just too plentiful and too crude to list here – and the Arabic language is likewise awash in backdoor humor. To say nothing of Pashto.

It does make for an interesting IO spin, to be certain. There’s nothing like ridiculing your enemies’ gross incompetence and maybe even nominating them for a Darwin Award—particularly when it involves something that’s so comically sexually humiliating. But is the author over-estimating the level of embarrassment involved by playing up the gay angle? After the collapse of the Taliban, the custom among Afghan warlords to have a young boy in their service commenced again. Indeed, I believe it was Peter Bergen who reported that, during the Afghan Civil War, two warlords fought a battle with tanks over who had the rights to a young boy. The custom seems to have mixed favor throughout the Muslim world, with nations such as Iran out-right banning gays, on one hand. On the other hand, T.E. Lawrence reported that the Hejaz chapter of MEMBLA seemed to be alive and well among some Bedouins, at least during World War One.

Nevertheless, relentless ridicule is a simple, effective way to de-legitimize al Qaeda, especially when combined with their ever-increasing unpopularity as a result of the massive collateral damage they create.

Focus: Create your own IO spin on the AnalBomber. Do it for NATO.