Reaping the Whirlwind in Egypt

If democracy is to have any chance of surviving in Egypt it's up to the E.U. and the U.S. to move against the generals.   The Egyptian army's counter-coup is now a fait accompli.   Expectations that toppling the democratically-elected Morsi government would pave the way for a secular, non-elected, democratic (???) civilian government have been dashed as the generals moved to consolidate their hold on the country.

It's been suggested that Western governments and media demonized Morsi to condition the public for his ouster.   If so, it worked.

Mubarak was released, Morsi imprisoned.   When secular leader El Baradei resigned in protest at the military's wanton power grab he and his family had to flee to safety in Europe even as the generals ordered his arrest.

Today's New York Times editorial asks, "Who Will Be Left in Egypt?"

On Thursday, with much of the world distracted by Syria, the Egyptian generals and the civilian officials they have appointed extended a countrywide state of emergency for two months. And after overthrowing Mohamed Morsi, Egypt’s first freely elected president, two months ago and trying to crush his Muslim Brotherhood allies, security forces have also begun to round up other dissenters, a chilling warning that no Egyptians should feel safe if they dare to challenge authority. 

The 1950s-era state of emergency law, which removes the right to a trial and curbs on police abuses, was for decades a hated symbol of Mr. Mubarak’s excesses. Although the law stayed on the books, the state of emergency was suspended after Mr. Mubarak’s overthrow. The military leadership revived it last month and has extended it until November, citing the security problems that have only grown worse since Mr. Morsi’s ouster.

Just as troubling, the government has moved from singling out the Brotherhood and other Islamists to going after liberal and left-leaning activists and journalists.

There seems to be no end to the draconian controls as the military seeks to restrain the news media, manipulate the courts, misuse security services and restrict civil society groups. If it prevents the Muslim Brotherhood from operating at all, as many expect, it will go even farther than Mr. Mubarak. The process of revising the Constitution that was put in place by the government seems as flawed as the one implemented by Mr. Morsi. The results are almost certain to be regarded by many Egyptians as illegitimate. 

The Times calls for Washington to cut off all aid to the generals.  A similar appeal to the European Union was recently made in The Guardian.  Unfortunately the message has yet to be sent to the men with the funny hats and all the ribbons in Cairo.

Here, Mo, You Can Have Hosni's Cell

Any remaining shred of doubt that the Egyptian military is playing  major league hardball on this coup d'etat is gone.  It's not just the killings of Egyptian Islamists.  It's not the release of their own capo, Hosni Mubarak.   Now they're after Mohamed ElBaradei, the liberal who served for exactly one month as vice-president briefly after the ouster of Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood. 

ElBaradei, long-serving former Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, lawyer and diplomat, winner of the 2005 Nobel Peace Prize, is being accused by the Egyptian military of a variety of misdeeds arising out of his four-week tenure as Veep.

ElBaradei, who quit following last week's mass killing of protesters, "stands accused of failing to present any alternatives to dispersing two mass sit-ins in Cairo, as well as disregarding "terrorist crimes" committed by the Muslim Brotherhood there.

ElBaradei was a member of the National Salvation Front, part of the opposition to Mohamed Morsi, who was deposed by the army last month. He has been vilified in the Egyptian media since quitting. He has been called a "traitor" and caricatured stabbing Egypt in the back. The case is being brought by a professor of law, Sayeed Ateeq. ElBaradei is now in Austria with his family.

Ah, Austria, what a lovely place at this time of year.  I'm just guessing but Mo and family might be staying there for a while.

You Know It's a Coup When

When you're an Egyptian, you know your uprising has actually been a military coup when the authorities release Hosni Mubarak.

It was unclear how Egyptians — particularly those who have welcomed the military action against Mr. Morsi — would respond to the release of a despised autocrat whose downfall united Mr. Mubarak’s secular and Islamist foes. News of the legal maneuvers came at a time of sustained bloodletting.

Just in the past 24 hours, the Egyptian government has acknowledged that its security forces had killed 36 Islamists in its custody, while suspected militants were reported on Monday to have killed at least 24 police officers and wounded 3 others in an attack on their minibuses in the restive northern Sinai region.

Mr. Mubarak, 85, faces an array of legal challenges including allegations of corruption and a retrial on charges of complicity in the murder of protesters whose revolt forced his ouster in February, 2011.

If You Were Hosni

Who knew?  President AND a Shriner!

To many Westerners, Hosni Mubarak seems enigmatic, out of touch with reality, perhaps even irrational.  He seems all those things until you put yourself in his shoes.

Try to imagine Hosni Mubarak job hunting and sitting down to write his resume.  Under "job experience" I would suppose he'd write that he served Egypt, in uniform and out, for about 60-years.   In his early years he even flew Spitfires.  Then he got into politics, showed promise and moved on up the ranks.  He lived through every day of what could be called the Middle East modern era.  He served Nasser and Sadat and then did what neither of them could manage, he survived as Egypt's president for three decades.   He survived many assassination attempts and overcame constant challenges, internal as well as external, while enabling his immediate family to amass a fortune estimated at between 40 and 70-billion dollars.  He and Ronald Reagan became presidents in the same year, 1981.

So what sort of skillset does it take to do all that?  Above all else you've got to be a true survivor.  You've got to be nimble, shrewd, calculating, determined, cold, brutal and, when needed, ambiguous even unreadable.

Last night everyone expected Hosni to appear on TV to resign the presidency.  They were shocked, even outraged that he did the opposite.  Why?

If you were Hosni you would realize that it's over for you.   Your days in power are ending.  That can't be changed.   So what's second best?   That's obvious.  What Mubarak needs now is to salvage his National Democratic Party or get it on some sort of life support.  He's said he wants to live out the rest of his life in Egypt but I'm sure he doesn't want to spend those years behind bars.

If the NDP falls as it seems it must, Hosni is going to have to have some sort of amnesty in place first or else get the movers in.  Either way that takes time.  Moving or converting $70-billion in assets isn't something that's easy or quick to accomplish.  Getting family members resettled also takes a bit of time.  Hosni needs understandings with governments throughout Europe, the Middle East and in the United States.  A lot of these things will be far harder to pull off once he yields the presidency.  I'm pretty sure that while Omar is tending the shop, Hosni is working the phones.  He has to buy time and that will only become much harder once he steps down.    In the meantime the old bugger still has a few more cards to play.

Mubarak's Down But Is He Truly Out?

It seems too good to hope for.   An Egyptian army commander shows up in Liberation Square and tells demonstrators that, "everything you want will be realized."   Word is getting around that Hosni Mubarak may actually resign the presidency today.   The army proclaims, "  Based on the responsibility of the armed forces and its commitment to protect the people and its keenness to protect the nation... and in support of the legitimate demands of the people [the army] will continue meeting on a continuous basis to examine measures to be taken to protect the nation and its gains and the ambitions of the great Egyptian people."

So far, so good - so far.   But, so far, it's all talk and, for the demonstrators, it's still a long hike from pillar to post.   There are endless challenges ahead including what to do with the ruling, National Democratic Party.   In Tunisia it didn't take long to realize the way forward meant that the institutional ruling party had to be dissolved.   That may be doubly true for Mubarak's NDP.  That's where the generals in uniform hold court, where military leadership assumes civilian power.  How can there be any way forward until the political franchise is pried from the fingers of retired generals?  

The president, the vice-president, the defence minister, the security minister, other cabinet members - they're all generals with a well-honed appetite for power.  Their history, their nature makes them incompatible to any possible transition to democracy.

So far it's all talk, talk and rumour.   None of it has been confirmed by the government.  In fact the information minister stating, " The president is still in power and he is not stepping down." 

If Mubarak doesn't resign, tomorrow, the Muslim holy day, could be extremely interesting.   The demonstrators have called for 10-million Egyptians to take to the streets and join them.

Not Bad for Just 30-Years Work

I know why Hosni Mubarak won't go into retirement peacefully.  With the gig he's got, nobody would.  A report in The Guardian says Hosni and his clan may have amassed a personal fortune of - wait for it - up to Seven Zero Billion Dollars.  That's 7 followed by a shitload of zeroes.  $70,000,000,000.00   I'm getting close myself.  I've got all the zeroes, just not the seven.

Now I'm just guessing here but maybe Hosni got overtaken by events he didn't foresee and hasn't had enough time yet to dig a crater big enough to stash all that loot.   One thing for sure - as soon as he's gone the people of Egypt will have seventy billion reasons to track down him, his family, and their loot.

Maybe the anti-Mubarak people should think this one through.  Is driving this guy out of Egypt really a good idea?

Easing Mubarak Out of Office

According to The New York Times, Egyptian officials, including the newly-minted vice-president Omar Sulieman and top Egyptian generals are working on plans to show Hosni Mubarak the door.  Among the ideas are to suggest Grampa Hosni go rest for a spell at his seaside home or, perhaps, take a leisurely visit to Germany for one of his annual medical checkups.

If they want to send Mubarak on his way I think the White House could do a little more to help.   I'm sure they could at least lend Egypt the same vehicle they used to get rid of their own tyrant.