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Bitcoin Today — Market State

As of 21 Sept 2026 · Composite of 11 knowledge objects · Explainable, not a trading signal

Mixed / neutralNet tilt +0.09Confidence 81%
3 of 5 signals bullish · 2 bearish

A synthesized read of where Bitcoin stands today, aggregating 5 directional signals across cycle, structure, flows, historical analogues and long-run base rate. Context below.

Directional signals

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Cycle→
Overheated (75/100)
Structure→
Uptrend
ETF flows (30d)→
+3,082M$ (accumulation)
90-day analogues→
median -0.9%, 50% up
1-year base rate→
median +49.59%, 65.98% up (unconditional)

Context

Macro coupling→
equity n/a (1y), regime Sweet Spot
Volatility→
options normal · VRP +5.4pp · IV-rank 3.97
Options→
max-pain $80,500, spot +0.6%, PCR 0.74, 0d
Macro regime
risk_on_leaning · quadrant sweet_spot · composite 55.62
Confluence
2/5 aligned · bearish · 3.81 effective domains
Sources (11 knowledge objects · derived_from)

Each signal above is derived from a separately published, versioned knowledge object. Freshness per source:

  • Cycle — as of 21 Sept 2026
  • Flows — as of 18 Sept 2026
  • Macro — as of 21 Sept 2026
  • Options — as of 21 Sept 2026
  • Analogue — as of 21 Sept 2026
  • Base rate — as of 21 Sept 2026
  • Structure — as of 21 Sept 2026
  • Confluence — as of 21 Sept 2026
  • Volatility — as of 21 Sept 2026
  • Correlation — as of 20 Sept 2026

Related knowledge

This is a synthesized, explainable market state for research and education — not financial advice and not a buy/sell signal. Historical and base-rate figures describe the past; they do not predict the future.

Dig into the data

Explore the Bitcoin cycle, on-chain charts and backtests behind each signal.

Bitcoin Market Pulse →Bitcoin Charts
← Bitcoin chartsUpdated 21 Sept 2026