PBO modelling using the PBO DSAModel alongside forecasts from Budget 2026 and the 2024 MTFSP, as well as NTMA data ... The PBO's DSA Calculator tested what would happen if windfall CT revenue disappears, interest rates rise to 6.2%, or both.
The PBO's estimate excludes major announcements, including increased spending on defence, along with the $13 billion for Carney's new housing bureaucracy, so the real deficit number could be even higher.