Will Hurricane Melissa affect the UK weather?

Lifeguard securing a red and yellow flag on a deserted beach with sand whipped up by strong winds Image source, Getty
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The scale of devastation across Jamaica and Cuba is emerging after Melissa - one of the most powerful Altantic hurricanes to make landfall - barrelled through.

Now, as a weakened category 2 storm, there have been some impacts felt in the Bahamas, with Melissa tracking toward Bermuda on Thursday.

Beyond that, as can be fairly typical, Melissa will weaken so that it will no longer be a hurricane or tropical storm as it moves into the North Atlantic.

Ex-hurricanes can sometimes impact the United Kingdom but on this occasion any remnants of Melissa will have minor affects on our weather early next week.

Hurricane Melissa route

Hurricane Melissa is now moving at pace north-east in the western Atlantic with sustained wind speeds of 105mph (169km/h).

It is expected to weaken further as it encounters cooler waters and track to the west of Bermuda on Thursday.

The US National Hurricane Center warns that Bermuda could see damaging winds with around 25mm (1in) of rain, rough seas and potentially life-threatening rip currents.

By the weekend Melissa will pass to the east of Newfoundland, Canada.

But as it enounters much cooler sea surface temperartures and the jet stream - the fast moving wind high in the atmosphere - it will weaken and undergo what meterologists call "extra tropical transition".

In other words, it will no longer be a tropical storm or hurricane and will just be an area of low pressure, despite having the remnants and signature of Melissa.

This area of low pressure will then move east across the Atlantic interacting with other weather systems and is likely to stall around the south-east of Greenland before weakening.

Any effects to the UK will be limited, but a weather front wrapped around this area of low pressure may bring some heavy rain on Monday.

It may also turn a bit breezy but the weather will be nothing more than a typical autumn day.

Meteorological pressure chart for Monday showing an area of low pressure to the south of Greenland and Iceland with weather fronts and rain across the UK.
Image caption,

Remnants of ex-hurricane Melissa are expected to pass close to Greenland and Iceland on Monday

Wet and windy at times

The weather in the UK for the rest of this week remains quite changeable with areas of low pressure bringing wet and windy weather for many of us at times.

On Thursday afternoon strong winds will develop across Northern Ireland in particular with gales and gusts of 60-70mph (96-113km/h) around Irish Sea coasts.

The Met Office has issued a yellow severe weather warning for wind from 13:00 to 23:00 GMT and suggests there could be some travel disruption, especially on Irish Sea ferry routes.

Some rain will spread across the UK too.

Further rain, heavy at times, is expected on Friday evening and overnight.

And then the weekend and into early next week remains unsettled with further bouts of rain and breezy conditions.

This is nothing unusual for November but you can check your more detailed weather forecast here or on the BBC Weather app.

Hurricane hype

Ex-hurricanes heading our way can often conjure up wild headlines and speculation.

But in reality the weather that the UK may end up getting is no different to the occasional stormy weather we can sometimes see in autumn and winter.

Strong winds and heavy rain are part of that.

The most notable ex-hurricane to impact the UK and Ireland was Ophelia in October 2017.

Moving up the west coast of Ireland, strong winds resulted in power cuts and travel disruption in western parts of the UK.

With a southerly airflow linked to it, Saharan dust and smoke from Portuguese wildfires were also transported to the UK, resulting in eerie red skies.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 November.