Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Joe Biden’s Three Genocides in Four Years, Part 1: COVID

From the vantage point of September, 2026 it might seem like pointless assholism to kick cancer-ridden, senile old Joe Biden when he’s down.

After all, we’ve got a rancid dotard in Trump threatening to nuke Iran in the midst of what John Mearsheimer is calling the greatest geo-strategic disaster in US history, why both with ol’ black-hearted Joe?

The reason is simple.

Until Americans, particularly Democrats reckon with just how vile, stupid, and deadly the last three Democratic presidential administrations have been (yes, America’s neocon foreign policy starts with Bill Clinton blowing up Yugoslavia and turning NATO into an offensive alliance and has continued to warmonger ever since, regardless of which party was in power), we’ll keep getting stuck with more of the same “not quite as bad as the Republicans” bullshit and the end of the republic will only escalate.

There is currently a well funded counter-revolution occurring in the Democratic party in which centrist Dems and the MSM are aligning to destroy anti-genocide candidates like Graham Platner in Maine (got him) and Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan (they’re still trying although he’s up in the polls).

If Dem voters don’t belatedly realize that their party establishment leadership is as corrupt as the GOP and actively push to purge them, we will not be able to vote our way out.

Never forget the Iron Law of Oligarchy.

So let’s look at the Delaware liar’s abysmal record as US President.

I’m going to argue that the senile asshole and the people around him actually running the country were responsible for not one, not two, but three mass death events that may or may not meet the legal definition of genocide, but certainly meet the moral one.

We’ll start with COVID.

Somehow Biden’s COVID Policies Were Worse Than Trump’s

An idiot like Trump, who’s openly an anti-science ignoramus could have been expected to bungle the response to a once-in-a-century pandemic like COVID. And of course Trump’s policies were a disaster. I don’t have time or space to litigate that here.

I’m just saying that as awful as Trump was on the issue, Biden managed to be even worse — when competence and sanity were key parts of his campaign pitch.

But Biden explicitly promised a return to best practices, “follow the science” and all that.

Instead we got “take the vax” and “get back to work.”

There was never a correction of the bad science of 2020 to clearly explain to people that COVID was spread via aerosols in the air, was rarely transmissable outdoors, and could be largely contained indoors with good ventilation systems and air quality monitoring.

There was also the huge lie that the vaccine would prevent transmission. That lie fooled a lot of people because many vaccines do prevent transmission (measles, polio, mumps, etc), but not for a corona virus like COVID. It shouldn’t have been a hard sell — people know that there’s no point in making a common cold vaccine because it’s a corona virus and changes too fast. We’ve accepted the need for new flu vaccines every year for the same reason.

But no explanations were forthcoming from the ghouls in the Biden administration. Just quiet announcements that data was going to be restricted2

It was the gaslighting of the Biden era that was the hardest thing to take (as long as his policies didn’t give you COVID that is). Four years of assholes insisting “he’s not senile, he’s got a stutter,” “the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine”, “the IDF is investigating” and all that crap. Was enough to drive a person insane. It certainly strained my relationships with friends and family and cost me at least one decade-long creative partnership.

The injury added to the insult was diverting money for COVID relief and prevention diverted to law enforcement3 and other bullshit.

Nearly twice the toll of the first year
444,583
Covid deaths under Trump
Weeks ending 1 Feb 2020 through 16 Jan 2021.

776,832
Covid deaths under Biden
Weeks ending 23 Jan 2021 through 18 Jan 2025 — 1.75 times as many, in a period when vaccines were free and universally available.

Both figures are sums of CDC’s own weekly provisional counts of deaths with Covid-19 on the certificate (dataset r8kw-7aab, data as of 27 Aug 2026). 2021 alone — the administration’s first year — killed more Americans than 2020 did.1

Bar chart of recorded Covid deaths and CDC excess deaths by year, 2020 through 2024. Recorded deaths peak at 463,267 in 2021; excess deaths peak at 530,876 the same year. The excess-death series stops after 2022, when CDC quit publishing it.

The green series ends after 2022: CDC’s excess-death dataset stops at the week ending 16 September 2023 and was never resumed. The gap in the chart is the blackout, drawn to scale.

If Biden Was Out of It, Who Actually Did This?

Funny you should ask.

I happen to think it’s important to lay the blame where it belongs with murderous vermin like Biden’s Chief of Staff Ron Klain, Obama’s ebola coordinator whose hiring was supposed to signal a return to competence.

Instead he pulled shit like retweeting MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle calling the OSHA vaccine rule “an ultimate work-around for the Federal govt to require vaccinations” which retweet was then cited by The Fifth Circuit as an endorsement when it stayed the rule, and Gorsuch pointed to it when the Supreme Court killed the mandate that January. The chief of staff’s own tweet helped sink the only workplace-safety rule the administration attempted.

Then there was Covid-19 Response Coordinator Jeff Zients, a management consultant and one-time Facebook board member with no public health background, wwho was somehow selected to run the response as a logistics problem for the entire vax-only stretch: the May 2021 unmasking, the Delta summer, the December 2021 rapid-test shortage, the blame-the-unvaccinated presser that December.

Criticized on the way out for rosy predictions of a Covid-free summer and for the test shortage; Public Citizen went after him on global vaccine access. He failed upward to become Biden’s chief of staff in February 2023 with God only knows how many American corpses ground under his wing-tips.

Somehow Zients’ Deputy Response Coordinator Natalie Quillian didn’t save the day, I guess her experience as Deputy Campaign Manager hadn’t really prepared her for handling a pandemic. Go figure.

And who can forget CDC Director Rochelle Walensky who wrote the May 2021 guidance telling vaccinated people to unmask at roughly 35% full vaccination, the statement that vaccinated people don’t carry the virus, the December 2021 isolation cut from ten days to five under airline pressure, and the February 2022 Community Levels metric that turned the map green. A regular magician of mass murder!

And then there’s Zients’ replacement as Covid-19 Response Coordinator Ashish Jha, who kicked off the “personal risk assessment” era and fobbed off the government’s responsibility to lead a united national pandemic strategy off on individuals left to fend for ourselves.

Jha’s October 2022 National Strategy for Improving Indoor Air Quality is the document that proves they knew what ventilation would take but for reasons that have always baffled me, the chance to do well by doing good (ie it would have been a massive honest graft and payoff opportunity, the kind good government runs on) and funding and leading a national campaign to improve indoor ventilation in schools, hospitals, nursing homes and workplaces….instead he declared the pandemic over while hundreds of thousands died.

And let’s have a special shout-out for the The Biden-Harris transition COVID advisory board: Co-chairs David Kessler, Vivek Murthy, Marcella Nunez-Smith. Members Ezekiel Emanuel, Michael Osterholm, Céline Gounder, Atul Gawande, Luciana Borio, Rick Bright, David Michaels, Julie Morita, Loyce Pace, Eric Goosby, Jill Jim, Jane Hopkins.

Special plaudits to board members David Michaels and Ezekiel Emanuel (older brother of disgraced ex-Chicago Mayor Rahm and UFC and WWE owner Ari Emanuel).

Michaels, an epidemiologist and Obama’s head of OSHA for eight years, who publicly called for an emergency OSHA standard covering inhalation hazards but was awful quiet when Biden (or someone not senile acting on his behalf) killed his own OSHA’s proposed rule.

Emanuel joined five other former transition COVID advisory board members in publishing three JAMA viewpoints calling for a “new normal” of life with COVID, explicitly rejecting elimination, just as Omicron peaked.

Dr. Emanuel boldly said “we’re not going to defeat the coronavirus. It’s here to stay.”

The White House distanced itself from the papers — and then adopted the posture seven weeks later with the Community Levels change.

But never fear, Zeke got his back when he was very early to distance himself from the Biden administration’s disastrous COVID policy. Family trait of the Emanuels to be on both sides of every issue.

Follow and support my work at NatWilsonTurner.com on Substack.


Notes

1. Four ways to count the dead

“Excess deaths” means different things depending on the baseline, and the answers differ by a factor of two.

Measure 2021 2022 Baseline
Recorded Covid deaths
CDC provisional counts, r8kw-7aab
463,267 246,297 None — a direct count of death certificates.
CDC excess deaths, all causes
CDC xkkf-xrst, summed by year
530,876 331,469 Observed deaths minus the average expected from prior years.
Same, conservative version
observed minus the upper bound of expected
443,697 232,223 The cautious read of the same CDC data — the floor.
Academic pandemic baseline
Paglino & Stokes et al., Science Advances
538,708 County-level model, March-to-February years. Year one was 620,872.
Peer-country gap
Bor et al., JAMA Health Forum
1,098,808 820,396 Deaths that wouldn’t have happened at the death rates of 21 peer countries. Only partly Covid.

These measure different things and are not additive. Excess deaths include overdoses, missed screenings and untreated disease — everything a wrecked health system does to people, not only the virus.

2. The order in which the counting stopped

1 May 2021 CDC stops investigating breakthrough infections that don’t end in hospitalization or death. Everything milder goes uncounted — including the data that could have tested the claim that the vaccinated weren’t spreading it.
20 Feb 2022 The Times reports the CDC is withholding most of the data it collects — booster effectiveness for adults 18 to 49, hospitalizations by age, race and vaccination status, wastewater. The stated reason was fear the numbers would be misinterpreted.
25 Feb 2022 “Community Levels” replace community transmission, four days before the State of the Union. The threshold for a green county moves from under 10 weekly cases per 100,000 to as many as 200. Most of the map turns green overnight and the mask recommendations lapse with it.
Spring 2022 Free testing winds down and reported cases detach from wastewater readings. From here the case count measures who can still get a test, not who is sick.
18 Sep 2022 Biden, on 60 Minutes at the Detroit Auto Show: “The pandemic is over.” The line complicated his own administration’s pending request for Covid funding.
11 May 2023 The public health emergency ends and the authority to collect goes with it. CDC stops reporting new cases nationally, loses the power to compel labs to report results, and electronic reporting of negative tests ends. Hospital reporting drops from daily to weekly.
16 Sep 2023 The last week of data in CDC’s excess-death dataset. The tracker simply stops, and was never resumed — which is why the chart above has nothing to show after 2022.
30 Apr 2024 Federal hospital reporting requirements expire and reporting goes voluntary. CMS reinstated mandatory reporting for Covid, flu and RSV on 1 November 2024.

No single order shut this off. It went piece by piece over three years, each removal defensible on its own, the sum of them leaving the country unable to say what was happening to it.

3. The Covid money that went to the police

This one isn’t an inference. The administration campaigned on it in public, and the spending was tallied by reporters.

13 May 2022 Biden asks cities to spend more relief money on police. A Rose Garden event and a fact sheet urging state and local leaders to “deploy as many dollars as possible before the summer months.” By then $10 billion of American Rescue Plan money was committed to public safety, $6.5 billion of it from State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds across 300-plus communities — which the White House itself called one of the largest single-year federal commitments to state and local law enforcement on record.
7 Sep 2022 The Marshall Project tallies where it landed. Of $101 billion allocated by governments through the first quarter of 2022, $52.6 billion was booked as “revenue replacement” — and roughly half of that, an estimated $26.3 billion, went to criminal justice. The LAPD took over $300 million for officer salaries; Alabama put $400 million toward two new prisons. Community violence intervention, the program Biden kept naming, got $187 million — under 1 percent. The figure is a keyword tally of vague Treasury filings, so treat it as an estimate rather than an audit.
More on the same flow: The Appeal, EPIC on relief money buying police surveillance tech, Prism.

Tit for Tat US/Iranian Strikes Resume

America hit Iran last night, taking out a couple launchers and radar aiming at ships the US is trying to get out of the Strait. Iran responded by hitting a US base in Jordan.

Today, around 8pm Iranian time, the US hit a variety of targets, some civilian (a fish powder plant?) and some military. Iran has now started its retaliation, which includes a lot of anti-ship missiles going after US naval vessels.

Last night’s attack by Iran:

launched its attack on U.S. bases in response to an American strike on Iranian naval facilities, which caused multiple casualties. The reported expenditure of more than 80 PAC-3 interceptors in a single engagement by some estimates represents more than ten percent of the entire American arsenal, at a time when interceptors are in very short supply across the Western world primarily due to mass use against Iran, but also due to mass donations to Ukraine. While U.S. government sources claimed that there was no damage to facilities from Iranian strikes, footage from the ground and satellite imagery has confirmed damage, compounding longstanding concerns regarding the Patriot’s limited effectiveness.

This comes back to what I said day one of the war: that the math favors Iran—the US and Israel will run out of interceptors long before Iran runs out of missiles and drones.

Both sides have been degrading the other sides radar (the US was late on this, but is now hitting the hard), but both sides still have satellite imagery to work from. (I’m 99% sure that China, Russia or both are providing real time feeds to Iran.) Loss of radars degrades defense more than offense, so more attacks can be expected to get thru on both sides, but, of course, Iran never had a lot of AD to begin with so this effects the US more.

Today’s attacks seem to mostly be tomahawks launched from US naval vessels, which are also in short supply.

The US attacks came as:

just yesterday, the U.S. Secretary of the Army AND the U.S. Deputy Undersecretary of the Army both reportedly resigned from their roles, leaving the United States without the Army’s number one and number three man.

Three of the remaining five regional commanders also gave Hegseth a non-concur on the plans, which means “we’ll do it because it’s a legal order, but we think it’s stupid.”

After the second set of American attacks Trump bloviated:

Once again, America can’t do this without indiscriminate use of nukes. Those nukes would not take out Iran’s missiles, which are deep in mountains, and Iranian commanders would then take out Israel, which yeah, they can do. Probably effectively destroy the physical economy of every US vassal within range and those regimes would not survive the fallout. Saudi Arabia is already in enough trouble that they’re negotiating an 8 billion dollar loan.

Iran was willing to let the war drag out because their calculation was that they could take the economic pain for longer than the US, and it avoided a lot of damage to Iran. But that doesn’t mean they can’t win a hot war, by my calculations they can, will and in fact, really already have except that Trump (unlike most of his generals) won’t admit that America has lost.

We’ll see if this keeps going. I don’t really see how it should, given American weaknesses, but Trump isn’t a rational actor. though I’d guess he really wants the war over before the midterms.

As for Iran, they’re digging their heels in hard, saying that peace only happens if Trump and Israel obey the MOU (which includes an end to Israeli attacks in Lebanon, where they are bulldozing entire towns that have existed for thousands of years.)

Since Trump can’t or won’t rein in Israel, if Iran’s serious, this is going to go on until Israel is begging for peace.

And folks? You’re living thru a war which will be studies by historians for ages as the war that marked the end of America as a superpower.

Update: interceptor depletion is real

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So Tired Of All The Lying

Although gaslighting is probably a better word for it.

The lying is just… endless. Key stats are bullshit (CPI is the one I’ve talked about most) or damn nearly meaningless (GDP). There’s a genocide going on and most media organizations are pretending it isn’t happening, even though it’s live-steamed. In Britain “Palestinian Action” is designated terrorists, while Israel is not. The President of America lies almost every time he opens his mouth to do anything but shove another McDonalds burger into it. Everything Israel says is a lie.

The biggest media personalities are mostly lying about half the time and when they aren’t, what they say is misleading.

Software exists to modify surveillance footage. Combined with AI you can’t trust pictures or video any more.

In the US politicians scream about communism, when there has never, ever, not once, been a US government that was remotely communist and there isn’t a single communist elected member of Congress. Most Americans couldn’t even define communism, and think it’s things like universal healthcare or being against genocide, not workers controlling the means of production.

Outright lies about enemies are common:

I mean, no, he never said that. Ever. Similar to the concerted media lies (an academic study found over 80% of media articles lied about Corbyn.)

It’s just relentless. I feel like I’m an intellectual janitor facing a mudslide worth of shit. No matter how fast I shovel, there’s always a thousand new lies.

Today I saw some scumbag claiming that building data centers is re-indstrialization (no, and it makes re-industrialization harder because it raises energy prices and misallocates capital.) I saw someone else say that insurance companies in the US are heroes because they deny care and someone has to tell doctors no, when international comparisons show that universal systems which deny far less care produce better results and cost less.

Sigh…

Nothing.

Nothing can be fixed if we believe lies. Nothing.

All of these lies exists because some group of evil scumbags want to do something that they know is bad for the majority of people. They need to manufacture consent, or at least muddy the issue enough to enrich themselves by impoverishing, sickening or straight up killing people.

It is that simple. It is that simple. It is that simple.

And it is radicalizing me to a degree I would never have thought possible because nothing can be fixed while these people are in charge or even tolerated. They all need to be removed from having any influence or power or wealth. This means basically every senior executive, every politician and every senior editor, producer or media owner. (Yes, there are exceptions, they are so exceedingly rare that they are meaningless.)

“Climate change isn’t real. There isn’t a genocide going on. Having billionaires hasn’t destroyed the middle class completely, the price of cars is only slightly higher than in the 90s.”

Remember all the idiots calling Clinton and Obama communists?

Garbage. Flaming mountains of garbage. All in the service of wanting more money than anyone could need, said money to be “earned” by hurting as many people as possible.

 

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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – August 30, 2026

by Tony Wikrent

 

War on voting

Judge Talwani’s Most Recent Order On Voting By Mail – It’s Long, It’s Complicated, And It’s Definitely Worth Your Time

Joyce Vance, Aug 28, 2026 [Civil Discourse]

After the Supreme Court made a (purely procedural) decision about Trump’s executive order on mail-in voting, rejecting judicial action in the case brought by blue state AGs because it wasn’t “ripe” for a decision yet, Judge Indira Talwani did the logical thing. She gave the plaintiffs in that case and in the case brought by the League of Women Voters a push toward updating their lawsuits. The government showed off the final rule it wants to use to implement the executive order. The ripeness argument is now moot. The administration zeroed it out when the Postal Service announced its final rule was ready to publish. The rule was published on Wednesday….

In essence, the Supreme Court directed her that the government hadn’t taken enough steps toward implementing Trump’s EO for the court to know what that implementation would look like and whether it was lawful. Too soon, the Supreme Court told Judge Talwani. You need to wait for the government to do more.

Now, the government has done more….

Judge Talwani also took a gentle, but satisfying slap at the Court, pointing out that the Trump administration isn’t exactly playing by the rules when it comes to court orders: ….

With the background laid out, we hit a critical juncture in the Judge’s decision. Here’s the most important thing to understand: the government defendants, who just days ago were arguing that the plaintiffs’ case wasn’t ripe for the court to decide, are now arguing that it’s too late for the court to intervene. Yes, you read that right. Too early has now become too late, with no Goldilocks spot in the middle. So much for the “justice” in Justice Department.

Here’s how Judge Talwani explains it. It’s worth reading her full layout: ….

The bottom line here is so grotesque that it’s impossible to imagine any other Justice Department advocating for such a plan, and any court taking longer than a few moments to reject it, as Judge Talwani did today. She notes that the government defendants “offer no reply to Plaintiff States’ assertion that compliance for the 2026 midterm elections will be impossible for many of them.” And what’s at stake is the right of Americans to vote. She notes the “significant risk of disenfranchisement” and finds that “In light of the State election officials’ unrebutted declarations that compliance with the Final Rule at this late date is impossible, the risk of irreparable harm to voters in those jurisdictions is grave.” As for the League of Women Voters, their members face irreparable harm for the same reasons—because they live in states that will be unable to comply with these new measures, and so, their ballots will not count.

This is another key point we should all note. Why won’t the ballots count? It’s not because the voters involved aren’t eligible to vote. They are. It’s not because they’ve done anything wrong—failed to register or vote in a timely fashion. They haven’t. Americans will be disenfranchised because Donald Trump does not want them to vote. No legal sleight of hand can legitimize that….

We’ve now reached the point in this case where the lawfulness—or not—of what Trump wants to do to our elections takes center stage. The case will go back to the Supreme Court and the Court will have to decide whether the Constitution, which clearly leaves this bit of election administration up to the states, still matters. Will the Roberts Court decide to undo 250 years of American democracy? Are there five votes left for the rule of law? One hopes that even on this court, a majority, however slender, that will do the right thing exists….

 

The Battle Over Mail-In Ballots

Robert Kuttner, August 28 2026 [The American Prospect]

… How does Trump get to dictate Postal Service meddling in partisan politics? As our colleague David Dayen has been writing for more than a decade, one reason is that the last two Democratic presidents, Biden and Obama, have been asleep at the switch.

Obama did not fill a single vacancy on the Postal Service Board of Governors during his entire eight-year term of office. As Dayen pointed out in a piece for The New Republic in 2014 (long before he joined the Prospect), the inspector general of the Postal Service proposed that the USPS provide basic postal banking, but it never happened—because the Postal Service’s board was still dominated by George W. Bush appointees. And Biden left in place Trump appointee Louis DeJoy as postmaster general because he never bothered to appoint enough board members to fire him….

 

States Are Quietly War-Gaming Trump Interference in the Midterm Elections

[The Allen Analysis, Aug 25, 2026, via Naked Capitalism 08-26-2026]

Democratic officials are preparing for seized voting machines, blocked mail ballots, rogue county officials and an attempt to prevent elected members of Congress from taking their seats.

 

Wyoming’s Primaries Were a Preview of Trump’s Midterm Interference – Mother Jones

Sophie Hurwitz, Aug 29, 2026 [motherjones.com]

 

Revisiting: Can Federal Troops Be Stationed At The Polls In 2026?

Joyce Vance, Aug 27, 2026 [Civil Discourse]

… The Bangor, Maine, Daily News reported earlier this week that the Republican nominee for Governor, Bobby Charles, told a group of young Republicans, “I’m going to ask Tom — three or four weeks before the election, maybe three — I’m going to make an appeal for ICE and marshals to be at our voting booths.” He continued, “Do you think the illegals who are being paid money are going to like that?”

Charles was taped. You can listen to the audio—exclusively obtained by the Daily News—here.

“Tom” is a reference to Tom Homan, Trump’s “Border Czar.” Apparently Homan and Charles are pals; Charles says they were on Fox together in the audio. (Homan, you may recall, was reportedly investigated for taking what he thought was a $50,000 cash bribe from a man who was actually an undercover FBI agent. Pam Bondi summarily dropped the investigation early in her tenure as AG.) Homan is decidedly in support of Trump’s anti-immigrant policy. He blamed state and local law enforcement for the federal presence in Minneapolis when he took over from Gregory Bovino after the deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti. And Trump, of course, has been working the whole “illegal immigrants voting” narrative, despite the absence of evidence to support it, as a convenient excuse for interfering with the upcoming elections. It’s the basis for his contested executive order to use the Postal Service to control who can get a mail ballot….

 

War

Lawrence Wilkerson: U.S. Considers Nuclear Strike Against Iran

Glenn Diesen, Aug 19, 2026, via Naked Capitalism 08-24-2026]

 

Once Again Orientals/Chinese/Whoever Are Not Innately Superior People

This excerpt commenting on China’s accomplishments needs pushback:

The Orientals ( SE and Far East Asia+ China) are a superior people: far more inventive, very hard working, system and procedures driven.

No.

If Orientals were innately superior people they wouldn’t have spent centuries being curb stomped, essentially at will, by Europeans.

Europeans were not innately superior either, they happened, for solid historical reasons, to have had a technological revolution which made them superior at war and later at production for a while. That is all.

No one is innately superior.

Some societies are superior to their competitors for a time. The Roman Republic (not so much the Empire, which was unable to expand significantly and keep those expansions. Before them the Greeks (everyone seems to forget the Hellenic world.) Before them various Mesoptomians and the Egyptians (who still have the all the time record for an enduring multi-millenial civilization, and during that time probably thought they were the bestest of the best, then got conquered repeatedly and forcefully had their own civilization and religion taken from them and replaced with Islam.)

Before China took the lead in the East, India was . Then China had a great run, but got its faced pushed in three times over 2,500 years–Mongols, Manchu and Europeans.

No one is innately superior. Under the right circumstances any society can rise to a dominant position. Then they will lose it when the conditions that gave rise to it end, often due to their own foolishness.

Every culture where people start thinking they are innately superior will commit atrocities at whatever scale they are capable of. The moment a culture thinks they are the best and that it is innate, they look down on everyone else and see them as non-human.

If you want to see what this looks like, go find a list of the British Empire’s atrocities. Or Amerca’s. Or the Mongols. Or most Mesopotamian kingdoms.

Or go watch some videos of what the people who think “God Chose us!’ are doing right now: all the mass murder, rape and torture, which an especial enjoyment of child murder.

Your society may be superior in some ways, for a time. This will always end, it is never innate and it always dependent on contingent circumstances.

If you think it is innate not only will you become monsters, but you will lose your superiority sooner than if you understand it is a result of historical contingencies and not something you don’t have to work hard and wisely to keep.

 

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Mid-Week Open Thread

Have some health issues flaring up and minor surgery on Friday, so may not post much till Monday, although I’ll try. Anyway, an open thread so you can discuss what’s going on. As usual, if I covered a topic in the last week, please comment there instead.

If You Want Companies To Behave Well You Have To Punish Decision Makers

Regular readers will know that China has been going after billionaires hard. So much so, in fact, that the number of billionaires is dropping in China.

Back after the financial collapse executives did very very well. They had been lying repeatedly, had engaged in wide-scale fraud and to the extent that there was any punishment it was fines on the companies involved.

Not only were the fines less than the companies had made, but even in the rare case that the company went bankrupt, the executives involved still got to keep all the money they had made. Dick Fuld, CEO of Lehman Brothers wound up with a net worth of over 500 million — after his company was bankrupt.

The saying at the time when bad deals were made was IBGYBG. “I”ll be gone, you’ll be gone.”

So if you want to dis-incentivize bad executive behaviour, you have to really go after the execs. Here’s an example of China doing it the right way:

Notice that all his personal assets were seized. I’d also track down any family member he made rich and take that money away.

The only way to restrain capitalists is real prison sentences or execution (Vietnam is fond of executing corrupt execs) and taking their money, and thus power, away. The idea of corporations being used to shield decision makers and beneficiaries of illegal or evil behaviour from liability has to go away. Corporate personhood has to end, as well, or they have to be given the disadvantages of personhood. “Committed a serious crime? OK, the corporation is dissolved.”

Psychologically the most important thing here is for government officials to not identify with business leaders. Chinese CCP bureaucrats do not think of themselves as part of the same class as executives at companies. Organizationally there can be no revolving door between business and government. You can move from biz to government, but not vice versa. There can be no route for payoffs, including the old “I”ll hire or give your wife or kid a sweetheart deal.”

For most of Western history bureaucrats – aka. civil servants, were considered morally superior to businessmen, because they were working for the common good and by doing so earning less than they could if they were in the private sector. Business was what you did if you were morally inferior: a person who was concerned about yourself and not others.

That ethos produced some very competent and high powered government bureaucracies which were well respected, especially when combined with civil service examinations.

Government and business are two different things. There has to be some understanding between them, since government must regulate business, but government’s job is to make the people better off, not to make businesses richer.

When government operates this way it can control private enterprise so that markets work to the benefit of society. When it doesn’t, usually because it’s been corrupted by capitalists, it enables monopolies and oligopolies and exploitative practices and when there are crises, it bails out the rich, not the people.

All of this is well understood, really, it’s just that there’s a lot of money to pay for scummy intellectuals and journalists and experts to obscure the fact and pretend that there’s a trickle down effect or that what’s good for rich is good for society. (Hello Milton Friedman, you corrupt hack.)

Markets are a lot like nuclear energy. Great if you do it right, but if you don’t, it’ll blow up in your face, and the first rule is that the more money a capitalist has the more harshly they should be treated if they break the law or hurt the public. In China, that’s how it is. In the West, the rich skate and the poor go to prison for life or have their homes and savings and livelihood stolen.

 

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Canada Refuses Last Minute Trade Demands From Trump And Ends Talks

I’m not a big fan of Canada’s Prime Minister Carney, the guy who blew two housing bubbles: one in Canada then another in the UK. He’s a neoliberal’s neoliberal.

But unlike most he is neither stupid nor a coward.

It was looking like there would be a Canada/US trade deal, and honestly? I was worried what Canada had given away to get it.

But then according to Carney (the US denies, but the when the Trump administration’s lips are moving, they’re lying), they added a bunch of last minute additions.

These are pretty close to annexation without the troops: the US would control Canada’s trade and have first call on all its minterals and would have altered our internal laws to suit them. I’m particularly intrigued by America wanting an end to Quebec’s language sign laws: what the hell does that have to do with the US?

It’s always hard to tell what is going on in the Trump administration, but these demands seem calculated to force Carney to refuse. He’d lose the next election if he agreed, the backlash would be immense. Certainly he would have been crushed in Quebec, and without Quebec he has no route to victory.

Moderately sane and informed American officials would know this. So, normally, one would assume they deliberately spiked the talks.

But this is the Trump administation, full of some of the stupidest and most ignorant people on Earth, ruled by a senile old man with the attention span of a grasshopper on cocaine.

So maybe they really figured “Canada has to do what we tell them to!’

Instead, the vast majority of Canadians support Carney, even prairie westerners who usually hate his guts.

And fortunately it worked out for the best. They pushed a strong hand way too far. The truth is that Canada has a ton of trade with America and is very vulnerable.

But the longer term truth is this: there’s nothing Canada buys from the US it can’t get somewhere else, often for a lot less (hello China) and there’s not much Canada exports that it couldn’t sell to nations other than America. We’re in a bad position because against the opposition of the majority of Canadians a feckless previous Prime Minister signed trade deals with the US which increased integration.

But what was done can be undone, because Canada is not naturally dependent on America.

One argument I keep hearing from Americans is that Canada needs America to defend it. To which the answer is a question: “From whom?”

The truth is that no one but the US is actually an invasion threat to Canada. Second biggest country in the world. Separated by large oceans or thousands of miles of land from every country in the world except America. The only nation America protects us from is America, and that’s what’s known as a protection racket.

Generally I don’t believe in making deals with Trump. No deals at all. He doesn’t keep his deals and if you make any concessions he always assumes that means there’s more to be had and comes back again with more threats.

The task for Canada is, indeed, to diversify away from the US. Trump is doing us a favor. If he’d offered a slightly shitty deal, we’d have accepted it. If he’d asked only for the moon, not the stars, he’d have gotten it. By making demands no Prime Minister could accept without losing the next election, demands which amount to “we control your trade relations with everyone else going foward” Trump made it possible for Carney to tell him no on the entire package.

And while that will suck for Canada; while Canada will be hurt by a trade war: it’s forcing us to do the right thing rather than put it off or do it slowly.

So I’d like to thank Trump.

“Thank you President Trump, for being a complete and utter asshole with the IQ of a squash and no empathy or kindness at all  Any President slightly smarter of slightly more able to understand other people could have had Canadian elites giving them cheap everything Canada has an integrating with the US even more. But you keep showing why that’s impossible and stupid.”

Now we just need a strong military deterrent. We have a lot of mountains and Iran has just shown us how to use them.

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