I just spent the last two days at the Payload Lunar & Mars Economy Summit at Space Center Houston.
It was an incredible mix of builders, policymakers, technologists, and investors who are shaping the next chapter of American space leadership. Timelines, infrastructure, national power, and what it will actually take to stay ahead. Spoiler: we're falling behind rapidly.
Here are the three big themes I keep coming back to:
🔴 China might beat us back with humans to the Moon
They’ve made their intentions clear: land by 2029, establish a permanent base by 2035. Their commercial sector is moving faster, better funded, and more aligned with national strategy than we’d like to admit.
They’ve mastered 1→X, and now their commercial space sector is getting good at 0→1. That should be a wake-up call.
The real question is whether this moment becomes our generation’s Sputnik. Will it push us to align policy, capital, and industry around a shared vision? Or will we let another space race play out from the sidelines?
🌕 The Moon is not the finish line
It’s the first node in a much larger space economy. Think logistics hub, refueling station, testing ground, and forward operating base.
If we treat it like a trophy mission, we lose. But if we build it out like infrastructure, it becomes the enabler for everything that follows: Mars, deep space, autonomy, off-world manufacturing.
We’re going to need cargo systems, resource extraction, in-situ construction, and regular transport. That’s a full-stack industrial challenge — and a big opportunity. Looking at you, Impulse Space and Ethos Space Resources.
⚡ Infrastructure is the difference between staying and visiting
Comms is furthest ahead. We’ve been building those systems for decades. Power is next. Without power, nothing works. And for sustained presence, we’re almost certainly going to need nuclear. Looking at you, Zeno Power and Radiant.
Autonomy is the furthest behind but maybe the biggest unlock. We can’t operate in real time on the Moon, and definitely not on Mars. Tools will need to handle complex decisions locally, without phoning home.
We’ll also need people. No AI or robot can match human intuition in unpredictable environments. But robotics and autonomy can make crew time radically more efficient. And in space, time is the most expensive thing there is.
The future of space isn’t about headlines. It’s about execution. Infrastructure, logistics, strategy.
We're proud to be backing companies building in the critical space domain at the US Strategic Tech Fund (an Alumni Ventures Fund)
This is how we win. 🇺🇸 🚀