Hilltop Securities Inc.

Former President Donald Trump has been re-elected, with the Republican Party securing control of the U.S. Senate and aiming to gain control of the House. A “Red Wave” is highly possible, which could have significant economic, policy and municipal market implications. Tax policy will be a major focus in 2025, with potentially an even stronger threat to the municipal bond tax exemption compared to 2017, if a “Red Wave” in fact occurs. Read our latest Municipal Commentary by Head of Public Policy and Municipal Strategy Tom Kozlik here: https://lnkd.in/grSfBajN #HilltopSecurities #MuniMarket #Election

The ISM Services composite index rose from 54.9 to 56 in October, signaling the fastest pace of expansion since July 2022. The growth was widespread with 14 of 16 service categories showing gains last month. The employment index climbed from contraction to expansion, up almost five points to 53, the highest in over a year. This suggests the weakness apparent in the October employment report may have been overstated. Read our latest Economic Commentary by Senior Portfolio Manager Scott McIntyre, CFA here: https://lnkd.in/guhgaiwF #HilltopSecurities #EconomicCommentary #ISMServices

As election day 2024 approaches, the nation finds itself gripped by a palpable sense of stress, anxiety and even fear. The lead up to Nov. 5 has been marked by a near-unprecedented set of events. The Democrats made an unexpected and un-surprising move by replacing their candidate- who is currently finishing his first term in the White House. We have seen two assassination attempts on the Republican candidate. International conflicts, and the looming threat of post-election violence in the U.S. is creating a pressure cooker atmosphere that seems ready to burst. To read our latest Municipal Commentary by Head of Public Policy and Municipal Strategy Tom Kozlik click here: https://lnkd.in/gkvE75eq #HilltopSecurities #MuniMarket #ElectionDay

HilltopSecurities Insurance is excited to announce John Weatherly has joined the firm as Senior Vice President, Insurance Solutions Professional. Weatherly has over 20 years of experience working with individuals, families, and business owners on life insurance, key man insurance, buy-sell agreements, business succession planning, deferred compensation plans, disability coverage and long term care insurance. Please join us in welcoming John to the Herd! #HilltopSecurities #Insurance #LifeInsurance

As expected, storms and strikes contributed to the lowest payroll count in nearly four years, but surprising weakness in previous months has rekindled concerns of a deteriorating labor market, nudging bond yields lower. The establishment survey showed an October payroll increase of just +12k, well below the +112k median forecast. Economists had expected a significant decline as a result of hurricanes Helene and Milton, but the October data was quite a bit weaker. The bigger surprise this morning was found in unusually large revisions to previous months. September payrolls were revised downward from +254k to +223k while the August count was lowered from +159k to +78k. Suddenly, Fed concerns over a softening labor market are back in play. To read our latest Economic Commentary by Senior Portfolio Manager Scott McIntyre, CFA click here: https://lnkd.in/gmPGv6kJ #HilltopSecurities #EconomicCommentary #Payroll

HilltopSecurities employees brought the magic of Halloween to life at this years “Haunted Hilltop” department decorating and costume contest! Congrats to our contest winners! We cannot wait to see what you’ll come up with next year. #HilltopSecurities #HappyHalloween #HauntedHilltop

HilltopSecurities’ Tom Kozlik and Yaffa Rattner recently sat down to discuss the results and implications of our 2024 Public Entity Survey. To watch the full video, click here: https://lnkd.in/gA_rAVFN #HilltopSecurities #PublicEntity #SurveyResults

Happy Halloween from HilltopSecurities! And now (drumroll, please!), we are pleased to present the world premiere of this year's Halloween blockbuster short film, "Harry DePositor and the Vault of Secrets"! 🎃 #HilltopSecurities #Halloween #VaultofSecrets

HilltopSecurities' John R. Muschalek and Tom Kozlik sit down for the ninth installment of The Muni Minute. In this episode, the pair discuss the best opportunity of the year to buy municipal bonds, potential impacts of the election, the issuance forecast for the rest of 2024, and takeaways from recent conversations with investors. #HilltopSecurities #MuniMinute #MuniMarket #Investors

The initial estimate of third quarter GDP came in slightly below forecast, but still quite solid, as the U.S. economy continues to grind higher. The +2.8% reading (quarter-over-quarter, annualized), missed the median forecast by a tenth and follows a +3.0% Q2 increase. Inventory accumulation was negative last quarter, subtracting 0.17 percentage points, while net exports subtracted another 0.56%. However, personal consumption made up the shortfall, climbing +3.7% with the biggest gain since Q1 2023. When the volatile inventory component is factored out, final sales of domestic products rose +3.2%, the most this year. Read our latest Economic Commentary by Senior Portfolio Manager Scott McIntyre, CFA: https://lnkd.in/gbxqCnbh #HilltopSecurities #EconomicCommentary #GDP