Economic Trends in Mining

🌍 Africa has mastered extraction. The next challenge is mastering transformation. For decades, the continent exported raw minerals while the highest margins were captured elsewhere through refining, manufacturing, and industrial processing. But the future of African mining will not be defined by who digs the fastest. It will be defined by who controls more of the value chain. ⚒️➡️🏭 Consider the gap: 🔸 Copper concentrate ≠ copper cathodes 🔸 Lithium ore ≠ battery materials 🔸 Graphite concentrate ≠ battery-grade graphite 🔸 Gold doré ≠ refined bullion The resource stays the same. The economics change completely. 📈 The real opportunity sits between: Extraction ➝ Processing ➝ Manufacturing ➝ Global supply chains Africa is sitting on some of the world’s most strategic minerals for the energy transition: ⚡ Copper 🔋 Lithium 🪫 Graphite 🧪 Cobalt 🥇 Gold Yet too much value still leaves the continent before beneficiation begins. Value addition is not just about building refineries. It requires an ecosystem: ⚡ Stable power 💧 Water infrastructure 🚆 Logistics corridors 👷 Skilled technical talent 🏦 Industrial finance 📜 Predictable policy 🌐 Access to global buyers 🤝 Long-term strategic partnerships The countries and companies that solve these pieces together will shape the next industrial era of Africa. The conversation should no longer be: “How much mineral do we export?” It should be: “How much value do we retain?” 🌍 Africa’s mineral wealth is not only underground. Much of it exists in processing, technology, infrastructure, and industrial capability. That is where the next generation of growth will come from. #Africa #Mining #CriticalMinerals #EnergyTransition #BatteryMetals #Copper #Lithium #Graphite #Gold #Cobalt #Beneficiation #Industrialisation #Infrastructure #AfricaRising #MiningIndustry #ESG #ValueChain #Manufacturing #Trade #Investment

One of the most electric discussions I’ve ever been part of - the first debate in Investing in African Mining Indaba history. Over the course of 45 minutes, Ronak Gopaldas and I flipped the room from “Africa IS a winner from current geopolitical disruption” to our side, “Africa CAN be a winner.” Geopolitics doesn’t crown champions. Resource governance does. A big thank you to Rohitesh Dhawan for so expertly moderating four fireballs. A few of my key points (showing that geopolitics and geology alone aren't enough): -Exploration investment is the oxygen of the mining sector. If you don’t explore, you don’t discover. And if you don’t discover, you don’t produce. But exploration capital needs stability. In the Sahel, instability has taken a severe toll: between 2021 and 2024, exploration spending fell by 69% in Burkina Faso and 90% in Niger following coups and political upheaval, despite having good reserves. -Resource nationalism has consequences. In Zambia, average annual exploration spending fell 81% between 2016 and 2021 compared to the previous four-year period. The election of Edgar Lungu ushered in double taxation, the 16th royalty increase in a decade, and withheld VAT refunds - all of which undermined investor confidence. But policy reform can reverse course. After President Hichilema was elected and began rolling back these measures, exploration rebounded 89% year-on-year in 2022. While still well below pre-Lungu levels, the recovery was a clear signal that stability and predictability matter - not just geology. -Africa needs to pursue (not just discuss) regional integration. At the same time the African Continental Free Trade Agreement was being signed, dozens of trade barriers were going up (like Zambia's 2019 5% import levy on copper concentrate, which made it cost prohibitive to smelt DRC's copper in Zambia). Strengthening regional integration will be key to building local beneficiation on the continent. Every country cannot build processing facilities for every commodity. The economic case for smelting will require combining feedstock from multiple countries within the region - so addressing intra-regional trade barriers will be key. -There is significant social fragility across many African countries, with rising tensions driven by perceptions that mining is not delivering tangible benefits to local communities. Strengthening governance will be essential to ensure that mining tax revenue is reinvested in human capital, physical capital (infrastructure), and natural capital. Reducing social fragility is key to ensuring companies can operate projects without fear of disruption.

Africa isn’t waiting for a seat at the table. It’s building its own table. Boston Consulting Group (BCG)’s new report lays it out clearly Africa could sit at the centre of the global critical minerals race. Not on the sidelines. The centre. By 2040, global demand for minerals is expected to more than double. And Africa holds a disproportionate share of the world’s supply. The DRC alone produces over two-thirds of the world’s cobalt. South Africa dominates platinum and manganese. Zimbabwe and Namibia are fast becoming the new frontlines for lithium and rare earths. The problem is most of that value still leaves the continent as raw rock. The report shows Africa captures less than 5 percent of global exploration spend while exporting as much as 40 percent of its mineral value. Refining, processing, and manufacturing all happen elsewhere. The result is Africa does the digging, others do the dealing. But that narrative is starting to crack. Namibia’s policy reforms have drawn EU-backed investment into rare earths and lithium. Morocco is quietly transforming itself into a phosphate-based battery hub with both Europe and China in its orbit. The DRC and Zambia are linking cobalt and copper through the new Battery Minerals Corridor one of the most practical continental projects we’ve seen in decades. You can feel the mood shifting from dependency to design. BCG’s numbers drive it home. Every billion dollars invested in mining and processing can add 200 to 280 million dollars to GDP, create 3 to 6 thousand jobs, generate around a 100 million in new infrastructure, and deliver another 70 to a 100 million to governments in revenue. What’s exciting is the timing. Africa’s not stuck with legacy infrastructure or outdated industrial baggage. It can build clean, digital-first supply chains with ESG and traceability designed in from the start. No retrofitting, no greenwashing just new models that work. But this decade decides everything. Demand’s exploding, capital’s moving, and global players are already carving up offtakes. China still owns the midstream. The US and Europe are scrambling to rebuild theirs. Africa has the leverage, but it only counts if it acts fast, with scale and credibility. We’ve spent half a century talking about Africa’s potential. Now it’s about execution. The minerals are real. The opportunity is bigger. And for once, the leverage sits with Africa if it chooses to use it. For more of my takes on the resource industry sign up to my weekly newsletter www.kamoacap.com #Mining #Exploration #Resources #CapitalMarkets #Africa

𝗭𝗮𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗮 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝘁: ~3,000 𝗟𝗶𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗱 Zambia’s Ministry of Mines has cancelled ~3,000 mining licenses for non-compliance since 2024. This is not a routine clean-up. It’s a structural shift in how access to mineral resources is governed. 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗪𝗮𝘀 𝗔𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗼𝗸𝗲𝗱? The majority were: Exploration licenses Inactive or underutilized concessions Speculative holdings with no real development activity Across key minerals: copper, cobalt, lithium, manganese, and gold 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 Zambia is targeting ~3 million tons of annual copper production. That doesn’t happen with: Idle licenses Land banking Paper investors It requires execution, capital, and speed. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁 This is what’s changing: Access is tightening → fewer, more serious players “Use it or lose it” is now enforced Capital quality matters more than ever Zambia is moving from license allocation → performance enforcement 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗢𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆 When dormant licenses are cleared, new operators move in. And those operators need: Equipment Processing solutions Infrastructure Trusted commercial partners on the ground 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗦𝗮𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝗙𝗶𝘁𝘀 As global manufacturers look toward Zambia, DRC, and the broader Copperbelt, the challenge is not opportunity — it’s market access and execution. Sales Connect supports: Market entry for international and local manufacturers. Commercial representation across Africa 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵𝘁 Zambia didn’t just cancel licenses. It sent a clear message: If you’re not developing the asset, you’re blocking someone who will. Part of a broader shift across Africa toward stricter resource governance and execution-led investment.

Why Ghana Is Poised to Lead Africa’s Green Mineral Revolution — And Why Smart Investors Shouldn’t Just Watch Ghana’s mining narrative has long been synonymous with gold. As Africa’s leading producer and a consistent contributor to national revenue, gold shaped the country’s global mining identity. But in the shadow of gold’s glimmer, a quiet but potent transition is unfolding. Ghana is now positioning itself at the forefront of the green mineral revolution, not by chance but by choice. Lithium, nickel, and tantalum are no longer just geological trivia—they are the building blocks of the energy transition. And Ghana is laying the legal, institutional, and financial groundwork to lead the continent in harnessing them. It starts with strategy. Ghana’s cabinet has already approved a policy framework on green minerals that requires local processing and value addition before export. In doing so, the country has drawn a clear line: the days of shipping raw minerals for minimal returns are over. The Ewoyaa Lithium Project, developed by Atlantic Lithium, is emblematic of this shift. Not only does the deal give the state a 13 percent free-carried interest and a 10 percent royalty, it also mandates a local listing and active Ghanaian participation. That model is being reinforced by one of Ghana’s most important institutional players—the Minerals Income Investment Fund (MIIF). With over $550 million under management, MIIF is not just observing the green mineral wave, it is investing in it. The fund is seeding projects, providing equity capital, and anchoring the long-term vision of building industrial value chains around critical minerals. The country is also borrowing hard-earned lessons from the gold sector. Policy reforms such as the GoldBod Act have improved transparency and centralized pricing. Small-scale mining, once fragmented and informal, is being integrated into formal markets with traceability tools and legal protections. Lithium, nickel, and other green minerals are now being guided through this more disciplined framework. Regionally, Ghana’s leadership could not come at a more urgent time. With African nations pushing for beneficiation and the West seeking to diversify from China’s dominance in critical minerals, Ghana’s combination of resource wealth, policy clarity, and investor readiness sets it apart. This is not a speculative gold rush. It is a long-term industrial strategy. For serious investors, the takeaway is simple. Ghana is not just offering access to green minerals. It is building a market where capital, governance, and global demand align. And that is a position worth more than just watching. Are you ready to be part of Ghana’s next mining chapter—or will you let others write it without you? #GreenMinerals #LithiumInvesting #GhanaMining #CriticalMinerals #AfricaEnergyTransition #SustainableMining #MIIFGhana #GhanaInvestment #ValueChainAfrica #BatteryMetals #WoodbridgeOBM

Africa’s Mining Moment: Unlocking Growth & Energy Access Mining is Africa’s economic engine, driving industrialization, job creation, and infrastructure development. As the world transitions to clean energy, Africa—home to 30% of the world’s critical minerals—is central to the supply of lithium, cobalt, copper, and nickel for the green economy. This aligns with Mission 300, a World Bank and AfDB initiative to connect 300 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa to electricity by 2030. Achieving this goal requires investment in mineral value chains, infrastructure, and energy access. Key Challenges & Market Trends A World Bank Group study (IFC & MIGA) highlights major industry dynamics shaping Africa’s mining sector: 🔹 Energy Deficits – Power shortages hinder processing & industrialization. 🔹 Infrastructure Gaps – Transport & logistics increase costs & reduce competitiveness. 🔹 Geopolitical & Policy Uncertainty – Export bans & shifting regulations create volatility. 🔹 ESG & Investor Sentiment – Capital is now tied to sustainability & governance. 🔹 Limited Access to Capital – Junior miners & SMEs struggle to raise funding. 🔹 Climate Risks – Water scarcity & extreme weather disrupt mining operations. Africa’s Mining Evolution: From Extraction to Value Addition Governments are pivoting toward localizing value chains & maximizing benefits: ✅ Zambia-DRC EV Battery Deal – Strengthening regional collaboration. ✅ Export Bans on Raw Minerals – Encouraging local beneficiation & job creation. ✅ Investment in Power & Logistics – Unlocking growth through energy & transport networks. ✅ Formalizing Artisanal & Small-Scale Mining (ASM) – A massive untapped opportunity. ✅ ESG & Governance Integration – Stronger compliance is reshaping investor priorities. The Investment Case: Unlocking Africa’s Mining Potential $22billion in annual mining tax revenues, with: • $14billion from Southern Africa • $4billion from North Africa • $2billion from West Africa • $1.3billion from Central Africa 42 untapped key deposits constrained by power & infrastructure. • Africa holds 23 key minerals but captures just 10% of global exploration investment. Investor Priorities: What Draws Capital? 🔹 Strong Geological Resource Base – Proven reserves. 🔹 Operational Profitability – Competitive cost structures. 🔹 Security of Mining Licenses – Stable tenure policies. 🔹 Predictable Mineral Royalties – Fiscal consistency. 🔹 Robust Institutional Governance – Strengthened legal & regulatory frameworks. Africa’s Future is Now With Mission 300 accelerating energy access, Africa must act decisively to unlock its full mining potential. The future isn’t coming—it’s already here. Now is the time to mine Africa’s opportunities. #Mining #Africa #CriticalMinerals #Mission300 #EnergyTransition #MI25 Chanda Chime - Katongo Kalonde Cynthia Nyati Mutuna Investing in African Mining Indaba Boubacar Bocoum Demetrios Papathanasiou Nathan Belete Robert Schlotterer

Ghana is becoming a major warning sign for the global gold mining industry. Uncertainty surrounding the future renewal of Gold Fields’ Tarkwa lease is raising serious concerns about long-term mining security in one of Africa’s most important gold producing countries. And global mining capital is paying close attention. Mining companies invest billions into infrastructure, processing facilities, exploration, logistics, and local economies based on one core assumption: that mining leases remain legally secure over the long term. Once governments begin creating uncertainty around renewals or reallocating strategic mining assets after decades of investment, international capital immediately starts repricing sovereign risk. The shortcut is to think higher gold prices automatically benefit mining jurisdictions. The transcender understands the contradiction. As gold prices rise, governments increasingly want a larger share of mining profits and strategic control over resources. But the more uncertain lease protections become, the harder it becomes to attract long term mining investment. And that can eventually tighten future global gold supply even further. Ghana may now become an important signal for the future direction of global resource nationalism.

Zambia Moves First: World’s First Electric Mining Truck Deployed at Kansanshi Zambia is no longer just a producer of copper—it’s becoming a proving ground for the future of mining. FQM Zambia, in partnership with Hitachi Construction Machinery Zambia Co., Limited (HCMZ), has commissioned the world’s first ultra-large battery-electric mining truck at Kansanshi. This is not incremental innovation—it’s a step change in how large-scale mining will be powered. Mining is one of the most energy-intensive industries globally. Decarbonising it has been more theory than execution—until now. Electrifying heavy haulage at this scale signals that the transition is moving from ambition to deployment, and Zambia is hosting it. The implications are significant. Lower emissions. Reduced diesel dependency. Improved operational efficiency over time. And critically, alignment with global ESG expectations that increasingly determine where capital flows. For Zambia, this goes beyond technology. It positions the country at the intersection of resources and innovation—where copper meets clean energy, and where global players test what comes next. It also reinforces a broader trend: serious operators are not waiting. They are investing, piloting, and scaling—on the ground. The message is clear. Zambia is not just part of the mining conversation—it is shaping it. For local suppliers, engineers, and SMEs, this is the signal: the standard is rising. The ecosystem must rise with it. The future of mining is being built in real time. Zambia is on the front line.

Africa is shaping tomorrow’s critical minerals value chains Africa’s role in global battery, EV, defense, and renewable energy supply chains is no longer just about extraction. Governments are using targeted policy tools to support domestic industrialization while remaining open to collaboration and investment. Our January 2026 Africa Critical Minerals Policy Brief highlights five important shifts:     DRC – Cobalt: Export quotas now regulate volumes and stabilize supply, giving the government leverage to encourage domestic processing — though partnerships are not legally mandated.    Zimbabwe – Lithium: Bans on lithium ore exports and planned bans on concentrates are driving battery-grade refining and attracting industrial FDI.     Ghana – Green Minerals: Export restrictions and mandatory beneficiation are designed to build domestic processing capacity across lithium, bauxite, and other green metals.     Namibia – Critical Minerals: Raw mineral exports require ministerial approval, making the government a gatekeeper of downstream value creation.     Pan-African Trend: Across multiple countries, local-value policies are emerging in parallel — not as a single coordinated bloc, but as a clear shift toward industrializing mineral wealth. These policies are not about coercion. They reflect development priorities, including jobs, industrial capacity, and more resilient global supply chains, which are built through partnerships, co-investment, and aligned incentives. Africa is no longer just a supplier of minerals. It is shaping the platforms on which future value chains will be built. #Africa #CriticalMinerals #ValueChains #BatteryIndustry #EVs #IndustrialPolicy #Mining #StrategicInvestment #SustainableDevelopment

Can Africa ride its critical minerals wave to an economic boom? Africa can absolutely ride the critical minerals wave to an economic boom, and there is mounting data to support this view. Africa holds about 30% of the world’s critical mineral reserves, including cobalt, lithium, nickel, graphite, and rare-earth elements, minerals crucial to the global energy transition and digital technology industries. The International Energy Agency forecasts demand for these minerals to soar: lithium demand will grow fivefold by 2040, while graphite and nickel will at least double, and cobalt and rare earths by 50–60%. This structural global shift positions Africa not only as a vital supply hub but as a central stage for industrial, technological, and economic transformation if value chains are built within the continent. Governments are stepping up with sweeping policy reforms to capture more value locally. Zimbabwe, for example, banned raw lithium exports and is commissioning new lithium sulphate processing plants, with Chinese companies investing over $400 million and local revenues set to more than double. Across West and Southern Africa, “resource nationalism” is rising; local content laws, beneficiation mandates, fiscal incentives, tax breaks, and equity participation are now required for miners, with similar moves being seen in South Africa and Zambia. Regional coordination is also gathering pace, supported by initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area and shared infrastructure projects, all aimed at integrating mining with refining, manufacturing, and innovation hubs. This is already leading to more domestic job creation, tech transfer, and a surge in industrial investment across the sector. Africa’s push for more grants than loans for energy financing, the renegotiation of mining contracts to mandate domestic value addition, and increased leadership in global minerals diplomacy are key trends. Rather than remain mere exporters of raw commodities, African countries are positioning themselves as indispensable, higher-value players in the global clean energy revolution. The critical minerals boom, if paired with bold reforms and strategic investment in infrastructure, can drive a continent-wide economic renaissance and ensure Africa captures genuine, sustainable benefits from its natural wealth. Read the full article below: https://lnkd.in/g5RDAkpy #CriticalMinerals #AfricanMining #GreenTransition #ValueAddition #AfricaRising #MineralBeneficiation #LocalContent #SustainableDevelopment #MineralsForGrowth #EnergyTransition #Africa2030 #ZimbabweLithium