Statistical Annex

European Economic Forecast – Spring 2019

Contents

Output : GDP and its components

1. Gross domestic product 174
2. Profiles (q-o-q) of quarterly GDP 174
3. Profiles (y-o-y) of quarterly GDP 175
4. GDP per capita 175
5. Final domestic demand 176
6. Final demand 176
7. Private consumption expenditure 177
8. Government consumption expenditure 177
9. Total investment 178
10. Investment in construction 178
11. Investment in equipment 179
12. Public investment 179
13. Potential GDP 180
14. Output gap relative to potential GDP 180

Prices
15. Deflator of GDP 181
16. Deflator of private consumption 181
17. Harmonised consumer prices index 182
18. Harmonised consumer prices quarterly profiles 182
19. Deflator of exports of goods 183
20. Deflator of imports of goods 183
21. Terms of trade of goods 184

Wages, population and labour market

22. Total population 184
23. Total employment 185
24. Unemployment rate 185
25. Compensation of employees per head 186
26. Real compensation of employees per head 186
27. Labour productivity 187
28. Unit labour costs, whole economy 187
29. Real unit labour costs 188

Exchange rates
30. Nominal bilateral exchange rates 188
31. Nominal effective exchange rates 189
32. Relative unit labour costs 189
33. Real effective exchange rates 190

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General Government
34. Total expenditure 190
35. Total revenue 191
36. Net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) 191
37. Interest expenditure 192
38. Primary balance 192
39. Cyclically-adjusted net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) 193
40. Cyclically-adjusted primary balance 193
41. Structural budget balance 194
42. Gross debt 194

Saving
43. Gross national saving 195
44. Gross saving of the private sector 195
45. Saving rate of households 196
46. Gross saving of general government 196

Trade and international payments

47. Exports of goods and services 197
48. Imports of goods and services 197
49. Merchandise trade balance (% of GDP) 198
50. Current-account balance (% of GDP) 198
51. Net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) 199
52. Current-account balance (bn EUR) 199
53. Export markets (goods and services) 200
54. Export performance (goods and services) 201

World economy
55. World GDP 202
56. World exports of goods and services 203
57. Export shares (goods) in EU trade 203
58. World imports of goods and services 204
59. Import shares (goods) in EU trade 204
60. World merchandise trade balances (bn USD) 205
61. World current-account balances (bn USD) 206
62. Crude oil prices 206

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European Economic Forecast, Spring 2019

Table 1: Gross domestic product, volume (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 2.1 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.4
Germany 1.0 0.6 2.2 1.7 2.2 2.2 1.4 0.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.7
Estonia 7.3 0.9 3.8 1.9 3.5 4.9 3.9 2.8 2.4 3.5 2.8 2.6
Ireland 6.0 1.2 3.1 25.1 5.0 7.2 6.7 3.8 3.4 7.8 4.5 3.8
Greece 4.6 0.9 -4.9 -0.4 -0.2 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0
Spain 3.7 1.8 -0.9 3.6 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.1 1.9 2.6 2.2 2.0
France 2.1 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.2 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.6
Italy 1.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.9 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.3
Cyprus 4.3 3.2 -1.7 2.0 4.8 4.5 3.9 3.1 2.7 3.9 3.5 2.9
Latvia 7.1 2.4 2.1 3.0 2.1 4.6 4.8 3.1 2.8 4.1 3.2 2.9
Lithuania 6.8 2.4 3.7 2.0 2.4 4.1 3.4 2.7 2.4 3.4 2.8 2.5
Luxembourg 3.9 2.1 3.0 3.9 2.4 1.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.0 2.7
Malta 2.6 2.1 4.1 10.7 5.7 6.7 6.6 5.5 4.8 5.4 4.9 4.4
Netherlands 1.8 1.5 0.6 2.0 2.2 2.9 2.7 1.6 1.6 2.8 2.4 1.8
Austria 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.1 2.0 2.6 2.7 1.5 1.6 2.7 2.0 1.8
Portugal 1.5 0.4 -0.9 1.8 1.9 2.8 2.1 1.7 1.7 2.2 1.8 1.7
Slovenia 3.6 2.3 0.2 2.3 3.1 4.9 4.5 3.1 2.8 4.3 3.3 3.0
Slovakia 3.9 5.1 2.7 4.2 3.1 3.2 4.1 3.8 3.4 4.0 4.1 3.5
Finland 3.2 0.8 0.5 0.5 2.8 2.7 2.3 1.6 1.2 2.9 2.2 1.9
Euro area 2.0 0.7 0.8 2.1 2.0 2.4 1.9 1.2 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.7
Bulgaria 5.2 4.7 1.1 3.5 3.9 3.8 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.6
Czechia 3.5 3.3 1.1 5.3 2.5 4.4 2.9 2.6 2.4 3.0 2.9 2.6
Denmark 1.6 0.3 1.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.8 1.6
Croatia 4.4 1.7 -0.9 2.4 3.5 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.6
Hungary 4.3 0.5 1.4 3.5 2.3 4.1 4.9 3.7 2.8 4.3 3.4 2.6
Poland 3.3 4.7 3.0 3.8 3.1 4.8 5.1 4.2 3.6 4.8 3.7 3.3
Romania 5.2 4.6 1.4 3.9 4.8 7.0 4.1 3.3 3.1 3.6 3.8 3.6
Sweden 3.0 1.0 2.4 4.5 2.7 2.1 2.3 1.4 1.6 2.4 1.8 1.8
EU27 2.1 0.9 0.9 2.3 2.1 2.6 2.1 1.4 1.7 2.2 2.0 1.9
United Kingdom 2.9 0.7 2.0 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2
EU 2.2 0.9 1.1 2.3 2.0 2.5 2.0 1.4 1.6 2.1 1.9 1.8
Japan 1.4 -0.4 1.6 1.2 0.6 1.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.5
United States 2.7 1.1 2.1 2.9 1.6 2.2 2.9 2.4 1.9 2.9 2.6 1.9

Incorrect slice name

Table 2: Profiles (qoq) of quarterly GDP, volume (percentage change from previous quarter, 2018-20) 24.4.2019

2018/1 2018/2 2018/3 2018/4 2019/1 2019/2 2019/3 2019/4 2020/1 2020/2 2020/3 2020/4
Belgium 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Germany 0.4 0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Estonia 0.1 1.7 0.3 2.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8
Ireland -0.5 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.7 1.7 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
Greece 0.4 0.3 1.0 -0.1 : : : : : : : :
Spain 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
France 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Italy 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Cyprus 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 : : : : : : : :
Latvia 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Lithuania 0.9 0.9 0.4 1.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4
Luxembourg 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.3 : : : : : : : :
Malta 1.1 2.7 2.9 0.5 : : : : : : : :
Netherlands 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Austria 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Portugal 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
Slovenia 0.6 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Slovakia 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9
Finland 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Euro area 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Bulgaria 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Czechia 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5
Denmark 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
Croatia 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
Hungary 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
Poland 1.5 1.0 1.6 0.5 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6
Romania 0.3 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9
Sweden 0.8 0.4 -0.1 1.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
EU27 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
United Kingdom 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
EU 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Japan -0.1 0.5 -0.6 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2
United States 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

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Incorrect slice name

Table 3: Profile (yoy) of quarterly GDP, volume (percentage change from corresponding quarter in previous year, 2018-20) 24.4.2019

2018/1 2018/2 2018/3 2018/4 2019/1 2019/2 2019/3 2019/4 2020/1 2020/2 2020/3 2020/4
Belgium 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9
Germany 2.1 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0
Estonia 3.4 4.0 3.9 4.3 4.4 2.9 2.9 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.7 3.1
Ireland 10.5 9.4 5.4 2.6 3.5 2.7 3.5 5.2 5.1 4.2 2.8 1.4
Greece 2.5 1.5 2.1 1.6 : : : : : : : :
Spain 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
France 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2
Italy 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7
Cyprus 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 : : : : : : : :
Latvia 4.8 4.6 5.2 5.6 4.4 3.7 2.6 2.2 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2
Lithuania 3.5 3.7 3.0 3.6 2.9 2.6 3.1 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.3 1.9
Luxembourg 3.0 3.0 2.8 1.7 : : : : : : : :
Malta 4.9 6.5 7.5 7.4 : : : : : : : :
Netherlands 3.2 3.0 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6
Austria 3.2 3.2 2.8 2.1 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.3
Portugal 2.2 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7
Slovenia 5.2 4.6 5.1 3.6 3.5 3.0 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.0
Slovakia 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4
Finland 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1
Euro area 2.4 2.2 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2
Bulgaria 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4
Czechia 4.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.2
Denmark -0.6 1.2 2.6 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0
Croatia 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.5 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2
Hungary 4.9 4.8 5.3 4.9 4.7 3.9 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.1
Poland 5.0 5.1 5.6 4.6 4.3 4.3 3.9 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.4 2.7
Romania 4.5 4.3 3.8 4.0 4.3 3.6 2.7 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.5
Sweden 3.3 2.5 1.6 2.4 1.6 1.4 1.7 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.1
EU27 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4
United Kingdom 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4
EU 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4
Japan 1.4 1.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.7
United States 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7

Table 4: Gross domestic product per capita (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 1.7 0.6 0.5 1.2 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9
Germany 1.0 0.8 2.0 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.1 0.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.4
Estonia 7.5 1.4 4.1 2.1 3.3 4.9 3.6 2.7 2.3 3.2 2.7 2.5
Ireland 4.3 -1.0 2.6 24.0 3.8 6.0 5.4 2.8 2.5 6.7 3.6 2.9
Greece 4.2 0.6 -4.6 0.2 0.2 1.7 2.2 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.6
Spain 2.5 0.2 -0.9 3.7 3.1 2.8 2.1 1.6 1.4 2.3 1.7 1.5
France 1.4 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.9 1.4 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2
Italy 1.2 -1.0 -0.8 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.3
Cyprus 3.0 1.1 -2.7 2.5 4.3 3.5 2.7 2.4 2.1 3.3 2.8 2.3
Latvia 8.3 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.0 5.6 5.6 4.0 3.6 5.0 4.0 3.7
Lithuania 7.7 3.7 5.3 3.0 3.7 5.8 4.3 3.4 3.1 4.5 3.7 3.5
Luxembourg 2.7 0.4 0.7 1.9 -0.2 -0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.4
Malta 1.9 1.5 3.0 8.1 3.3 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.2 2.9 3.2 2.8
Netherlands 1.2 1.2 0.2 1.5 1.7 2.3 2.1 1.1 1.1 2.3 1.9 1.4
Austria 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.8 1.9 2.2 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.0 0.9
Portugal 0.9 0.2 -0.5 2.2 2.2 3.0 2.4 1.7 1.8 2.3 1.9 1.8
Slovenia 3.5 1.8 0.0 2.2 3.0 4.8 4.2 3.0 2.7 4.3 3.3 2.9
Slovakia 4.0 4.9 2.7 4.1 3.0 3.0 4.0 3.6 3.2 3.9 4.0 3.4
Finland 2.9 0.4 0.1 0.2 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.4 1.0 2.5 1.8 1.6
Euro area 1.5 0.3 0.6 1.8 1.7 2.2 1.7 0.9 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.5
Bulgaria 6.3 5.2 2.1 4.1 4.7 4.6 3.5 4.0 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.9
Czechia 3.6 2.7 1.0 5.1 2.2 4.1 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.7 2.8 2.4
Denmark 1.3 -0.1 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.6 1.3 1.1
Croatia 4.9 1.7 -0.6 3.1 4.4 4.0 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.1
Hungary 4.6 0.7 1.7 3.8 2.6 4.4 5.1 3.9 3.0 4.5 3.6 2.8
Poland 3.3 4.6 3.0 3.9 3.1 4.8 5.2 4.2 3.7 4.8 3.7 3.3
Romania 6.2 5.7 1.8 4.4 5.4 7.6 4.4 3.9 3.7 4.4 4.4 4.2
Sweden 2.7 0.3 1.6 3.4 1.4 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8
EU27 1.8 0.6 0.8 2.1 1.9 2.4 1.9 1.2 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.7
United Kingdom 2.5 -0.1 1.2 1.5 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6
EU 2.0 0.5 0.9 2.0 1.7 2.3 1.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.5
Japan 1.3 -0.4 1.6 1.4 0.8 2.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.3 0.9
United States 1.7 0.2 1.4 2.1 0.8 1.5 2.1 1.7 1.2 2.1 1.9 1.2

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European Economic Forecast, Spring 2019

Table 5: Domestic demand, volume (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.6 2.1 1.1 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.6
Germany 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.6 3.0 2.0 1.9 1.3 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.0
Estonia 9.0 -0.2 4.4 1.1 4.6 4.2 5.5 3.2 2.6 3.6 3.1 2.7
Ireland 5.7 1.5 0.9 14.6 22.6 -13.3 4.8 3.6 3.3 0.4 4.0 3.2
Greece 4.6 1.1 -6.3 -1.3 0.5 1.6 0.5 2.7 2.2 0.5 2.1 1.9
Spain 4.2 1.5 -2.0 4.0 2.4 3.0 3.0 2.2 1.9 2.8 2.2 1.9
France 2.3 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.6
Italy 1.6 -0.3 -1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.2 1.3
Cyprus 5.3 3.9 -3.2 3.9 6.1 8.5 3.0 4.8 4.0 4.7 4.6 3.5
Latvia 8.0 0.4 1.9 2.4 2.1 6.2 6.8 3.1 2.8 5.7 3.3 3.2
Lithuania 7.5 1.2 2.7 6.8 2.2 2.9 2.9 3.5 3.0 4.3 3.7 3.1
Luxembourg 3.0 1.4 4.2 0.8 3.6 2.5 3.1 3.0 2.4 3.5 3.2 2.9
Malta 2.2 2.3 1.7 14.1 1.2 -1.2 6.5 7.6 5.5 6.8 6.1 4.9
Netherlands 1.3 1.6 -0.5 6.9 -0.7 2.2 2.7 1.8 1.9 3.2 2.6 1.9
Austria 1.3 1.3 0.8 1.2 2.2 2.5 1.7 1.6 1.4 2.1 1.7 1.5
Portugal 1.1 0.3 -2.3 2.7 2.0 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.1
Slovenia 3.0 1.6 -1.5 1.9 2.9 3.9 4.6 3.5 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.7
Slovakia 3.8 4.0 1.0 6.0 1.2 2.6 4.2 2.9 2.8 4.2 2.8 2.7
Finland 2.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 3.2 1.8 2.3 1.3 1.1 2.5 1.9 1.6
Euro area 1.7 0.8 0.1 2.4 2.4 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.8
Bulgaria 7.6 5.2 0.0 3.3 1.6 4.8 6.2 4.4 3.7 6.4 4.8 4.1
Czechia 3.7 2.2 0.5 5.9 1.1 3.5 3.9 3.3 2.7 3.4 3.2 2.5
Denmark 1.9 0.7 1.1 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.6 1.5 1.7 3.1 1.5 1.9
Croatia 5.1 1.7 -2.0 2.2 3.8 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.3 3.7 3.6 3.5
Hungary 4.6 -1.5 0.7 2.1 1.0 6.8 7.0 5.6 2.9 5.8 4.3 2.0
Poland 2.4 4.7 2.4 3.3 2.3 4.9 5.5 4.4 3.9 4.9 3.9 3.7
Romania 7.3 6.6 0.5 5.3 5.1 7.6 5.7 4.4 3.7 4.8 4.2 3.9
Sweden 2.1 1.4 2.6 4.2 3.2 2.7 2.0 0.7 1.2 2.5 1.7 1.8
EU27 1.8 1.0 0.3 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.0
United Kingdom 3.4 0.4 2.1 2.7 2.4 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.2
EU 2.1 0.9 0.6 2.6 2.4 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.8
Japan 1.0 -0.6 1.6 0.8 0.0 1.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.2 0.4
United States 3.1 0.5 2.2 3.6 1.7 2.5 3.0 2.5 2.1 3.0 2.8 2.1

Table 6: Final demand, volume (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 2.9 1.6 2.7 2.5 4.6 2.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2
Germany 1.8 1.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.0 1.2 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.4
Estonia 7.7 1.2 7.3 0.0 4.9 3.9 5.0 3.3 3.0 4.0 3.5 3.1
Ireland 7.4 2.8 3.1 28.8 11.1 -0.9 7.4 4.2 3.8 4.0 4.3 3.8
Greece 4.8 1.0 -4.6 -0.2 -0.1 2.8 2.5 3.2 2.8 2.4 3.0 2.5
Spain 4.3 1.3 -0.5 4.1 3.1 3.6 2.8 2.2 2.1 2.8 2.5 2.3
France 2.7 1.0 1.9 2.2 1.6 2.6 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.7 2.0 2.0
Italy 1.9 -0.5 -0.2 2.2 1.6 2.5 1.2 0.6 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8
Cyprus 3.8 2.9 -1.1 4.4 5.5 7.5 3.1 3.3 2.8 5.3 3.5 2.8
Latvia 8.3 1.9 4.1 2.6 3.0 6.2 4.9 2.7 2.6 4.9 3.3 3.1
Lithuania 9.2 3.1 6.3 4.1 3.0 7.5 3.8 3.5 3.3 4.7 3.9 3.4
Luxembourg 5.8 3.0 6.7 4.2 3.8 -0.9 4.2 2.1 2.4 3.3 2.8 2.4
Malta 1.5 6.6 3.1 15.0 3.3 3.2 3.6 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.1
Netherlands 2.7 1.8 1.9 7.1 0.4 3.7 2.7 1.7 2.4 3.1 3.1 2.6
Austria 2.9 1.4 2.1 2.0 2.4 3.3 2.7 2.0 2.0 3.0 2.4 2.1
Portugal 1.8 0.6 -0.2 3.7 2.7 4.4 3.0 2.6 2.6 3.3 2.9 2.6
Slovenia 4.8 2.8 1.2 3.3 4.5 7.1 5.9 4.4 4.7 5.9 4.9 3.9
Slovakia 7.0 5.0 4.8 6.0 3.3 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.8 5.4 4.9
Finland 3.6 1.3 1.1 1.1 3.3 3.3 2.0 1.8 1.8 3.0 2.4 2.2
Euro area 2.7 1.0 1.6 3.7 2.6 2.8 2.2 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.3
Bulgaria 6.6 5.1 2.5 4.3 4.1 5.2 3.3 4.0 3.4 4.0 4.1 3.8
Czechia 6.5 4.1 3.3 5.9 2.6 5.0 4.2 3.3 2.9 3.9 3.4 2.9
Denmark 2.7 1.5 1.8 3.1 3.0 2.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.9
Croatia 6.3 1.2 -0.5 4.4 4.4 4.6 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.9 3.8 3.7
Hungary 7.5 2.4 3.0 4.5 3.0 5.7 5.9 5.1 3.8 6.4 5.1 3.7
Poland 3.9 5.3 3.9 4.7 4.5 6.5 5.8 4.7 4.2 5.4 4.6 4.0
Romania 7.1 7.2 3.1 5.1 8.3 8.3 5.6 4.4 3.7 5.2 4.9 4.6
Sweden 3.2 1.3 3.2 4.7 3.2 2.9 2.5 1.5 1.8 2.8 2.2 2.2
EU27 2.9 1.3 1.8 3.8 2.8 3.1 2.5 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.4
United Kingdom 3.5 0.7 2.4 3.1 2.1 2.3 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.4
EU 3.0 1.2 1.9 3.7 2.7 3.0 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.3
Japan 1.7 -0.5 2.3 1.1 0.3 2.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.4 0.7
United States 3.1 0.9 2.6 3.2 1.5 2.5 3.1 2.6 2.1 3.1 2.8 2.1

176
 Statistical Annex

Table 7: Private consumption expenditure, volume (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.7 1.1 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.4 1.6
Germany 0.8 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.6 2.1 1.7
Estonia 8.0 1.6 2.6 4.4 4.4 2.6 4.7 4.0 2.9 4.1 3.4 2.7
Ireland 5.0 3.0 -0.1 3.6 4.1 1.6 3.0 2.4 2.3 3.1 2.9 2.7
Greece 3.9 2.4 -5.3 -0.2 0.0 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.7
Spain 3.5 1.3 -1.5 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.6 2.3 1.8 1.4
France 2.3 1.6 0.7 1.5 2.1 1.0 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.1 1.6 1.6
Italy 1.0 0.2 -1.0 1.9 1.3 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1
Cyprus 5.6 3.7 -0.7 2.4 4.5 4.1 3.7 3.5 2.8 4.2 3.8 3.1
Latvia 6.4 2.3 3.1 2.5 1.4 4.1 4.5 3.7 3.6 4.5 4.0 4.0
Lithuania 7.9 3.3 2.5 4.0 5.0 3.3 3.9 3.8 3.3 4.2 3.9 3.3
Luxembourg 3.1 1.5 2.3 3.2 1.7 3.0 4.2 3.6 2.5 3.7 3.5 2.7
Malta 3.0 1.6 1.3 5.1 2.4 3.6 7.3 5.0 4.1 5.2 3.8 3.6
Netherlands 1.5 0.3 -0.3 2.0 1.1 1.9 2.5 1.4 1.6 2.8 2.2 1.9
Austria 1.8 1.4 0.6 0.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.5
Portugal 1.6 0.9 -1.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.3 1.9 2.3 2.0 1.8
Slovenia 2.4 2.6 -0.7 2.3 3.9 1.9 2.2 2.5 3.2 2.2 2.9 3.1
Slovakia 4.1 4.9 0.0 2.2 2.9 3.5 3.0 3.2 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.0
Finland 3.1 2.0 1.3 1.5 2.2 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.4 2.4 2.1 1.4
Euro area 1.7 1.0 0.0 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.6
Bulgaria 7.5 5.3 1.3 4.5 3.6 4.5 6.4 4.0 3.8 6.5 4.3 3.8
Czechia 3.1 2.7 0.5 3.7 3.6 4.3 3.2 3.0 2.8 3.7 3.3 2.5
Denmark 1.6 1.1 0.6 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.3
Croatia 4.6 1.4 -1.5 1.1 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.8 3.6 3.3
Hungary 5.2 -0.5 -0.3 3.9 4.0 4.8 5.4 4.9 3.8 5.2 3.3 3.2
Poland 2.9 4.5 1.9 3.0 3.9 4.9 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.5 3.8 3.4
Romania 8.1 7.3 0.6 6.0 7.9 10.0 5.2 5.2 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.0
Sweden 2.7 2.0 2.1 3.1 2.9 2.2 1.2 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.1
EU27 1.9 1.2 0.1 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.8
United Kingdom 3.8 0.7 1.1 2.6 3.1 2.1 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.3
EU 2.3 1.1 0.3 2.1 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.7
Japan 1.3 0.3 1.1 -0.2 -0.1 1.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.8 1.0 -0.3
United States 3.4 1.5 1.9 3.7 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.1

Table 8: Government consumption expenditure, volume (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.6 -0.2 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.3
Germany 0.6 1.9 1.2 2.9 4.0 1.6 1.0 2.0 1.7 1.3 2.3 1.7
Estonia 2.0 3.2 1.7 3.0 2.2 0.6 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.9 0.7
Ireland 5.9 2.9 -1.2 1.9 3.5 3.7 5.8 5.9 1.8 4.3 4.3 1.4
Greece 3.6 3.1 -5.0 1.6 -0.7 -0.4 -2.5 3.1 0.4 1.2 0.2 0.3
Spain 4.7 5.4 -1.2 2.0 1.0 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.5
France 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1
Italy 2.2 0.4 -0.7 -0.6 0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.4
Cyprus 3.0 5.1 -2.8 -0.5 -0.8 3.1 4.3 3.6 4.0 1.7 4.1 2.4
Latvia 2.7 0.7 -0.3 1.9 3.9 4.1 4.0 1.5 1.3 4.0 1.8 1.8
Lithuania 2.2 1.3 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6
Luxembourg 4.8 2.7 2.3 2.8 2.5 3.1 4.0 2.7 3.0 3.4 2.7 3.4
Malta 2.4 2.5 3.3 3.7 -2.8 2.1 11.7 11.5 6.3 15.7 9.0 6.9
Netherlands 2.9 4.1 0.0 -0.1 1.3 1.1 1.4 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.8 1.7
Austria 0.6 2.6 0.3 0.8 1.8 1.5 0.2 0.9 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.8
Portugal 3.0 1.2 -2.2 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.5
Slovenia 3.0 3.0 -1.4 2.4 2.7 0.5 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.7 1.6 1.4
Slovakia 3.3 5.8 1.0 5.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.4 1.6
Finland 1.7 1.5 0.2 0.2 1.8 -0.4 1.4 1.2 0.3 2.2 2.2 2.2
Euro area 1.9 2.1 0.3 1.3 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.3
Bulgaria 3.3 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.2 3.7 4.7 3.0 2.3 3.9 5.2 4.3
Czechia 2.8 1.2 -0.2 1.9 2.7 1.3 3.7 3.0 1.8 2.7 2.1 1.9
Denmark 1.7 2.2 0.7 1.7 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4
Croatia 0.7 3.2 0.1 -1.0 0.7 2.7 2.9 2.7 1.7 2.7 1.8 2.0
Hungary 3.5 0.4 1.5 1.3 0.7 1.3 -0.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 0.4 0.3
Poland 4.2 3.9 1.5 2.3 1.9 3.5 4.7 4.3 3.3 3.6 3.2 3.7
Romania -4.0 1.7 1.0 -0.3 2.2 2.6 1.8 3.8 3.1 2.0 1.5 1.4
Sweden 0.4 1.2 1.2 2.4 3.6 0.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.9 0.9
EU27 1.9 2.1 0.4 1.4 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.3
United Kingdom 3.9 2.0 0.7 1.4 0.8 -0.2 0.4 2.2 0.8 0.5 0.9 1.1
EU 2.2 2.1 0.4 1.4 1.7 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.3
Japan 2.6 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.5 1.0
United States 2.4 2.0 -1.4 1.7 1.5 -0.1 1.2 2.1 0.7 1.5 2.3 0.4

177
European Economic Forecast, Spring 2019

Table 9: Total investment, volume (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 1.9 1.9 1.5 2.7 3.8 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.7 2.6 2.3 2.0
Germany -1.5 0.6 2.9 1.6 3.5 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.4 3.1 2.9 3.2
Estonia 14.5 -3.0 7.8 -7.6 2.9 12.5 3.3 4.8 4.0 2.6 4.6 4.2
Ireland 6.8 -1.6 2.4 51.1 51.4 -31.0 9.7 4.2 5.2 -7.3 5.7 5.1
Greece 5.1 -0.5 -15.6 0.7 4.7 9.1 -12.2 10.1 10.8 -2.1 14.6 9.6
Spain 5.8 -0.8 -3.9 6.7 2.9 4.8 5.3 3.6 2.9 5.4 3.9 3.3
France 2.7 0.6 0.7 1.0 2.8 4.5 2.9 2.1 1.7 2.7 2.3 2.1
Italy 3.1 -1.4 -4.2 2.1 3.5 4.3 3.4 -0.3 0.9 3.7 2.0 3.1
Cyprus 3.5 5.3 -14.4 13.8 41.8 29.0 -7.1 10.2 8.1 8.3 7.5 5.3
Latvia 15.0 0.6 1.4 -0.5 -8.4 13.1 16.4 2.8 1.7 11.2 2.8 2.2
Lithuania 9.0 -0.9 6.5 4.9 0.3 6.8 6.5 5.0 4.4 7.3 5.3 4.4
Luxembourg 2.0 2.4 6.7 -9.9 10.4 4.0 -2.7 2.5 1.6 3.4 3.2 2.7
Malta 3.7 0.2 3.0 55.3 -0.1 -7.4 -3.7 10.1 7.8 1.6 8.2 5.7
Netherlands -0.4 2.4 -2.5 29.0 -7.3 6.1 4.3 3.2 2.1 5.4 3.8 2.3
Austria 1.3 0.0 1.2 2.3 4.3 3.9 3.3 2.0 1.6 3.4 2.5 2.1
Portugal -1.2 -1.0 -6.8 5.8 2.3 9.2 4.4 4.6 5.0 4.4 4.7 5.1
Slovenia 3.2 1.3 -4.8 -1.6 -3.7 10.7 10.6 7.5 7.4 9.0 7.5 7.4
Slovakia 0.9 2.7 2.3 21.9 -9.4 3.4 6.8 2.6 2.8 12.4 2.2 3.0
Finland 2.4 0.2 -0.9 0.7 8.6 4.3 3.2 1.6 1.3 4.1 2.2 1.8
Euro area 1.7 0.1 -0.6 4.9 4.0 2.6 3.3 2.3 2.3 3.3 3.0 3.0
Bulgaria 14.2 10.2 -3.6 2.7 -6.6 3.2 6.5 6.8 5.2 9.0 6.8 5.2
Czechia 4.3 3.3 0.1 10.2 -3.1 3.7 10.5 3.9 3.1 7.8 3.7 3.2
Denmark 2.0 0.6 0.8 5.5 7.6 4.6 5.1 1.7 2.3 8.2 1.4 2.6
Croatia 8.8 2.8 -4.7 3.8 6.5 3.8 4.1 6.0 5.4 4.1 5.4 5.8
Hungary 4.9 0.1 1.3 4.7 -11.7 18.2 16.5 10.4 2.4 12.5 9.4 1.0
Poland -1.5 9.5 3.1 6.1 -8.2 4.0 8.7 4.9 4.1 6.2 5.7 4.9
Romania 8.7 10.7 0.7 7.5 -0.2 3.5 -3.2 1.4 2.3 4.6 5.6 5.9
Sweden 2.9 1.6 3.5 6.7 4.2 6.0 3.3 -0.2 0.9 3.5 2.0 2.1
EU27 1.8 0.6 -0.3 5.1 3.3 3.0 3.7 2.4 2.3 3.7 3.2 3.0
United Kingdom 1.8 -1.3 3.9 3.4 2.3 3.5 0.2 -0.2 0.8 -0.1 0.9 0.9
EU 1.8 0.3 0.2 4.9 3.1 3.1 3.2 2.1 2.1 3.2 2.9 2.8
Japan -1.4 -2.5 2.3 1.6 -0.3 3.0 1.1 1.6 1.1 2.2 2.1 1.3
United States 2.8 -1.9 4.4 3.3 1.7 4.0 4.8 2.8 2.2 5.4 3.7 3.2

Table 10: Investment in construction, volume (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 0.5 2.7 1.4 -1.8 3.4 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.5 2.0 1.9 2.0
Germany -4.0 -0.7 2.5 -1.4 3.8 2.9 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.9 2.8 3.1
Estonia 13.6 -2.0 4.6 -1.1 -0.2 4.2 6.4 3.5 2.4 6.4 2.7 3.0
Ireland 6.6 -6.2 -6.1 7.3 18.2 16.0 15.8 10.3 7.9 12.0 10.8 9.2
Greece 5.0 -3.4 -19.2 -9.9 29.2 0.4 -18.5 20.2 12.5 4.9 10.5 10.9
Spain 6.7 -1.5 -7.9 3.6 1.1 4.6 6.2 4.1 2.9 5.8 4.2 3.4
France 3.0 0.5 -0.6 -1.3 0.5 4.4 1.5 0.5 0.5 1.6 1.4 1.6
Italy 4.2 -2.0 -6.3 -0.7 0.9 1.3 2.6 0.3 1.2 1.4 2.6 4.4
Cyprus 5.7 4.2 -15.7 -2.6 21.7 28.9 19.2 15.1 11.4 13.3 12.3 7.8
Latvia 18.3 3.7 -1.2 -0.2 -21.1 15.6 22.9 2.5 1.8 19.1 2.6 1.6
Lithuania 5.0 0.9 3.5 0.1 -6.4 4.8 8.5 5.3 4.2 5.5 4.1 3.1
Luxembourg 4.7 2.4 1.5 -4.6 8.2 -4.2 7.0 1.4 1.6 3.4 3.2 2.7
Malta : -2.9 1.0 52.9 -15.0 24.6 1.5 14.7 12.3 : : :
Netherlands -0.1 2.0 -5.5 11.4 10.9 6.0 6.2 3.5 2.1 5.9 3.7 2.2
Austria 0.3 -1.6 -0.3 0.1 0.4 3.5 2.8 1.9 1.4 2.7 1.8 1.6
Portugal -1.5 -3.6 -10.2 5.1 -1.5 8.3 3.1 3.6 3.7 3.2 3.6 3.8
Slovenia 1.7 1.6 -8.6 -5.5 -13.6 9.8 15.0 9.3 9.7 11.8 9.8 9.5
Slovakia -1.7 5.3 -2.8 29.0 -17.5 10.2 7.7 3.5 3.4 20.9 1.7 3.1
Finland 2.9 -0.6 -0.2 2.0 10.1 5.8 4.2 1.4 1.3 3.3 1.5 0.3
Euro area : -0.7 -2.6 0.4 2.7 3.9 3.2 2.4 2.1 3.3 2.8 3.0
Bulgaria 12.3 17.4 -8.3 -3.8 -2.7 -3.2 6.1 4.5 2.9 8.9 4.5 2.9
Czechia 2.2 1.9 -2.3 9.7 -6.9 3.6 13.7 3.2 2.3 8.4 2.9 2.6
Denmark 2.4 -2.4 0.2 10.1 6.6 6.1 5.4 3.2 2.0 6.0 4.1 3.2
Croatia : : : : : : : : : : : :
Hungary 6.0 -1.7 -2.1 6.4 -22.1 27.5 31.6 14.8 1.9 18.5 13.6 -2.2
Poland -1.8 10.1 2.3 2.2 -10.2 -0.2 9.4 3.7 3.0 8.8 6.2 5.4
Romania 7.7 12.2 1.4 20.9 7.4 11.7 -4.5 2.0 3.9 2.9 5.3 6.8
Sweden 5.7 1.3 2.4 8.6 7.7 8.1 3.0 -2.7 -1.8 2.6 -0.7 0.8
EU27 1.6 -0.2 -2.2 1.4 2.2 4.2 3.7 2.4 2.0 3.7 3.0 3.0
United Kingdom 1.3 -2.5 3.2 5.1 2.9 6.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 -0.9 1.0 1.1
EU 1.5 -0.6 -1.5 1.9 2.3 4.6 3.3 2.2 1.9 3.1 2.7 2.7
Japan -4.5 -5.2 2.3 0.3 1.3 2.9 : : : : : :
United States 2.2 -6.2 1.3 3.6 1.0 2.3 2.1 0.1 1.2 3.2 2.1 1.4

178
 Statistical Annex

Table 11: Investment in equipment, volume (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 2.4 0.1 0.4 4.4 11.4 0.6 1.9 1.6 1.9 3.8 2.8 2.2
Germany 0.4 0.7 3.5 4.1 2.2 3.7 4.2 2.1 2.8 4.7 2.9 3.3
Estonia 15.1 -7.2 13.2 -16.1 5.4 27.7 -4.6 6.5 5.8 -2.0 7.0 5.8
Ireland 3.2 4.7 9.0 -2.9 24.2 -11.2 37.7 -3.0 3.7 15.7 3.4 4.1
Greece 5.5 3.7 -13.5 7.3 -11.4 22.2 -10.2 4.2 8.9 -9.4 18.5 9.5
Spain 3.0 -0.9 2.2 11.9 5.2 6.0 5.4 3.0 3.1 6.0 4.1 3.7
France 1.9 -1.0 1.8 4.1 7.4 3.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 3.0 3.2 2.7
Italy 2.2 -1.7 -3.0 4.6 6.7 9.1 5.5 -0.5 0.8 9.7 2.6 2.0
Cyprus -1.1 7.6 -18.8 52.1 107.9 26.5 -35.1 3.3 3.1 4.5 3.5 3.2
Latvia 12.9 -6.7 6.8 -1.3 11.1 8.2 10.9 3.5 1.5 5.0 3.0 3.0
Lithuania 14.1 -7.7 13.5 13.4 8.9 8.6 4.0 4.4 4.5 9.5 6.7 5.5
Luxembourg -1.1 2.8 15.3 -19.1 15.8 14.8 -15.6 3.8 1.6 3.4 3.4 2.6
Malta : 2.1 2.5 85.5 13.5 -35.0 -14.4 : : : : :
Netherlands -2.0 2.5 -0.4 14.2 4.8 8.5 2.8 2.8 1.0 6.0 4.2 2.3
Austria 1.1 0.4 1.3 3.9 10.6 4.6 3.3 2.1 1.5 4.6 3.2 2.4
Portugal -1.9 1.8 -4.1 10.4 7.5 13.5 6.1 6.3 8.5 7.0 7.8 8.5
Slovenia 5.7 -0.8 -1.1 3.9 7.3 12.1 8.3 6.5 5.8 8.2 6.6 6.5
Slovakia 3.0 0.7 7.9 16.9 -1.3 -1.4 5.2 2.4 2.2 3.9 3.2 2.9
Finland 0.9 1.1 -0.7 3.6 13.7 6.1 1.6 1.8 0.6 6.8 4.0 5.0
Euro area : 0.0 1.1 5.6 5.8 5.0 4.4 1.8 2.4 5.5 3.5 3.1
Bulgaria 16.2 0.8 4.1 9.8 -14.9 4.3 7.1 9.4 7.5 9.9 9.3 7.5
Czechia 6.0 4.1 2.2 9.3 -2.5 3.4 9.8 5.1 4.2 8.0 4.5 4.1
Denmark 1.5 0.8 1.7 1.4 2.5 7.7 6.6 -0.9 2.8 14.5 -3.0 2.0
Croatia : : : : : : : : : : : :
Hungary 4.1 -0.2 5.6 1.5 2.5 13.8 -2.0 5.6 3.9 8.5 5.6 5.0
Poland -1.3 8.3 4.3 12.1 -7.6 8.3 9.0 6.8 5.8 4.0 5.4 4.6
Romania 10.2 10.0 -1.0 -3.9 -8.9 -5.0 1.5 2.4 2.0 8.5 6.5 5.5
Sweden 1.2 2.0 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.5 1.3 0.8 3.1 4.7 4.3 3.6
EU27 1.6 0.6 1.4 5.6 4.5 5.1 4.5 2.1 2.6 5.8 3.6 3.3
United Kingdom 2.6 -2.1 6.8 5.2 2.0 -2.7 -4.5 -4.0 0.4 -3.2 0.4 1.0
EU 1.7 0.3 1.9 5.6 4.2 4.2 3.5 1.5 2.4 4.9 3.3 3.1
Japan 0.9 -1.0 3.1 2.8 -1.8 4.9 : : : : : :
United States 2.8 0.1 9.0 2.8 -1.1 5.9 7.2 5.0 3.4 6.8 3.9 3.4

Table 12: Public investment (as a percentage of GDP, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019

5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5
Germany 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.5
Estonia 4.9 5.7 5.3 5.2 4.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.0
Ireland 3.8 4.2 2.4 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.3
Greece 5.5 5.3 3.2 3.8 3.5 4.4 3.0 4.1 4.0 3.5 4.1 4.1
Spain 3.9 4.6 3.1 2.5 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.0
France 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6
Italy 2.8 3.1 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.3 1.9 1.9 2.0
Cyprus 3.6 3.5 3.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 5.5 2.2 2.2 2.8 2.9 2.9
Latvia 2.4 4.9 4.7 4.8 3.6 4.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 4.8 4.7 4.7
Lithuania 2.9 4.6 4.2 3.7 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5
Luxembourg 4.6 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0
Malta 3.9 3.4 2.9 4.2 2.5 2.3 3.0 3.5 3.5 2.5 2.8 3.1
Netherlands 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5
Austria 2.5 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.1
Portugal 4.6 3.7 3.1 2.2 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.6
Slovenia 3.8 4.5 4.5 4.7 3.1 3.1 3.6 3.9 4.1 3.2 3.6 3.9
Slovakia 3.6 3.5 3.6 6.3 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
Finland 3.7 3.6 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.7
Euro area 3.1 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8
Bulgaria 3.6 4.7 4.1 6.6 2.6 2.2 2.9 4.1 4.4 3.3 3.8 3.9
Czechia 5.1 5.3 4.3 5.1 3.3 3.4 4.1 4.2 4.3 3.8 3.9 3.9
Denmark 2.8 3.0 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4
Croatia : 5.8 3.6 3.2 3.2 2.7 3.5 3.8 4.0 2.7 2.7 2.9
Hungary 4.0 4.0 4.1 6.6 3.1 4.6 5.8 6.7 6.2 5.8 6.3 6.3
Poland 2.6 4.3 5.0 4.5 3.3 3.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.9 5.1
Romania 3.2 5.3 4.9 5.2 3.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.5 2.8 2.8 2.9
Sweden 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.8 4.8
EU27 : 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0
United Kingdom 2.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 3.0
EU : 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0
Japan 5.0 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
United States 3.7 3.9 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3

179
European Economic Forecast, Spring 2019

Table 13: Potential GDP, volume (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 2.2 1.7 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.3
Germany 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.9 2.1 2.0
Estonia 5.2 3.7 1.5 2.8 2.7 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.0 3.2 3.3 2.9
Ireland 6.7 2.8 1.4 23.1 6.0 8.5 5.1 4.3 3.9 7.6 3.9 3.5
Greece 4.2 1.6 -2.2 -1.9 -1.4 -0.9 -0.8 -0.3 0.0 -0.8 -0.3 0.0
Spain 3.5 2.9 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.5
France 1.9 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3
Italy 1.3 0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8
Cyprus 3.5 3.7 0.1 -1.1 0.8 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2
Latvia 6.6 5.0 -0.1 2.2 2.2 3.1 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.4 3.6 3.7
Lithuania 6.0 5.0 1.2 2.0 1.7 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.6 3.5
Luxembourg 4.6 3.3 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.8
Malta 2.8 2.4 3.5 7.8 7.4 7.1 6.3 5.7 5.5 6.1 5.4 5.2
Netherlands 2.5 1.6 0.6 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8
Austria 2.3 1.8 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1
Portugal 2.2 0.6 -0.6 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6
Slovenia 3.4 3.3 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.4 2.7 3.1 3.4
Slovakia 4.2 5.3 2.7 2.8 2.2 2.4 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.6
Finland 3.6 1.7 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.6
Euro area 2.1 1.5 0.6 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6
Bulgaria 3.5 5.1 1.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.7 3.4 3.4 3.2
Czechia 2.8 3.9 1.2 2.8 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7
Denmark 1.8 1.3 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6
Croatia : 2.2 -0.2 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.4
Hungary 3.7 1.9 0.5 2.2 2.0 2.8 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.2 3.4 3.1
Poland 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.5 3.7 3.8
Romania 2.8 5.7 2.1 3.5 3.9 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.5 4.6 4.1 4.1
Sweden 3.0 2.2 1.6 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.4 2.1 2.0
EU27 : 1.7 0.8 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8
United Kingdom 3.0 1.8 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4
EU : 1.7 0.8 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7
Japan : : : : : : : : : : : :
United States 3.0 2.0 1.4 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2

Table 14: Output gap relative to potential GDP ¹ (deviation of actual output from potential output as % of potential GDP, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 0.3 0.9 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4
Germany 0.1 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.9 0.7 -0.2 -0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0
Estonia 1.5 5.3 -0.9 0.3 1.1 2.7 3.3 2.8 2.2 3.0 2.6 2.3
Ireland 2.0 -0.7 -1.5 3.4 2.4 1.2 2.8 2.2 1.7 0.2 0.8 1.1
Greece 1.8 2.8 -12.2 -12.1 -11.0 -8.9 -6.4 -4.0 -1.9 -6.0 -3.8 -1.9
Spain 2.9 1.2 -6.9 -4.7 -2.3 -0.5 0.9 1.6 2.0 1.0 1.8 2.2
France 1.5 1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.5 0.8
Italy 1.4 0.7 -3.1 -3.3 -2.0 -0.5 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 0.3 0.8
Cyprus 2.0 4.2 -4.6 -5.2 -1.5 0.8 2.8 3.8 4.3 2.3 3.5 4.3
Latvia -0.5 3.4 -4.4 0.4 0.2 1.7 2.8 2.2 1.3 2.4 2.1 1.3
Lithuania -2.2 2.1 -3.5 0.5 1.1 3.0 3.6 3.1 2.1 2.8 2.0 1.1
Luxembourg 2.3 -0.5 -3.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.6 1.0 1.3 0.0 0.3 0.2
Malta 0.7 0.3 -1.7 3.1 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.9 0.4 -0.4
Netherlands -0.2 -0.1 -2.3 -1.9 -1.0 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.6 1.6
Austria 0.0 0.3 -0.6 -1.3 -0.8 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.5
Portugal 0.7 -0.3 -2.5 -1.8 -0.7 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.5
Slovenia 0.6 3.1 -4.5 -3.3 -1.6 1.3 3.3 3.4 2.8 2.7 3.0 2.5
Slovakia -2.9 2.3 -2.3 -1.2 -0.3 0.4 1.5 2.1 2.3 0.7 1.3 1.2
Finland 0.3 0.7 -2.2 -3.4 -1.7 -0.3 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.9
Euro area 1.0 0.5 -2.3 -1.8 -1.0 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.8
Bulgaria -1.9 1.8 -0.8 -1.6 -0.7 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 0.3 0.6 1.0
Czechia 0.1 3.0 -1.8 0.0 -0.1 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.3 1.1 1.2 1.0
Denmark 0.9 1.3 -2.8 -1.5 -0.7 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.5
Croatia : 3.5 -3.5 -3.4 -1.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 2.4 1.6 2.3 2.5
Hungary 0.2 1.0 -3.0 0.3 0.6 1.8 3.3 3.3 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.4
Poland -3.4 0.4 0.0 -0.8 -0.7 0.8 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.6
Romania -0.3 5.9 -4.4 -2.7 -1.9 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.2 -0.3
Sweden -0.1 0.3 -1.7 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 -0.1 -0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.2
EU27 : 0.6 -2.2 -1.7 -0.9 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.7
United Kingdom 0.5 0.0 -2.5 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.3
EU : 0.5 -2.3 -1.4 -0.7 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7
Japan : : : : : : : : : : : :
United States 0.2 -0.1 -1.7 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.8
¹ When comparing output gaps between the spring and the winter forecast it has to be taken into account that the overall revisions to the forecast may have led to changes in the estimates for potential output.

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 Statistical Annex

Table 15: Deflator of gross domestic product (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.0 1.8 1.7 1.2 1.5 1.6 2.2 1.9 1.8
Germany 0.9 1.0 1.4 2.0 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.9
Estonia 4.9 6.8 3.3 1.0 1.5 3.9 4.6 3.3 2.7 4.2 3.6 2.9
Ireland 4.7 0.5 -0.3 7.4 -0.8 0.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.1
Greece 3.0 3.2 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.6 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.5 1.1 1.2
Spain 3.9 2.8 0.1 0.5 0.3 1.2 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.7
France 1.8 1.8 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.3 0.9 1.4 1.5
Italy 2.8 2.1 1.1 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.4
Cyprus 2.9 2.8 0.5 -1.2 -0.6 1.7 1.6 1.1 1.3 2.1 1.3 1.7
Latvia 4.5 8.7 2.5 0.0 0.9 3.2 4.2 2.7 2.0 3.7 2.1 2.7
Lithuania 0.6 5.6 2.5 0.3 1.4 4.3 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.6 3.7 3.6
Luxembourg 2.0 3.6 3.1 -0.4 0.9 2.2 3.8 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.7
Malta 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.6 1.4 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1
Netherlands 2.9 1.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 1.2 2.2 2.4 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.0
Austria 1.5 2.1 1.7 2.2 1.4 1.3 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.8
Portugal 3.4 2.5 0.6 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.5
Slovenia 6.1 3.1 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.9 2.2 2.6 2.5
Slovakia 5.9 1.6 0.7 -0.2 -0.5 1.2 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.6
Finland 1.3 1.9 2.0 1.7 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.5 1.9 0.9 1.6 2.0
Euro area 2.1 1.8 1.0 1.4 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.7
Bulgaria 5.0 7.3 1.7 2.2 2.2 3.4 3.6 2.7 2.2 2.6 2.4 2.2
Czechia 2.9 1.8 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.6 2.3 2.0
Denmark 2.3 2.4 1.6 0.4 0.7 1.4 0.4 1.6 1.8 1.1 1.6 2.0
Croatia 4.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 -0.1 1.1 1.7 1.5 1.6 2.3 1.7 1.6
Hungary 8.0 4.1 2.9 1.9 0.9 3.8 4.5 4.0 3.4 3.7 3.3 3.0
Poland 3.3 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.3 2.0 1.1 1.8 2.4 1.1 2.4 2.5
Romania 28.1 11.6 3.3 2.6 2.5 4.7 5.9 5.2 3.7 6.5 3.8 3.5
Sweden 1.6 2.2 1.2 2.1 1.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.5 2.0 1.8
EU27 2.3 2.0 1.1 1.4 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8
United Kingdom 2.0 2.5 1.7 0.4 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.6 2.0
EU 2.3 2.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.8
Japan -1.3 -0.8 -0.6 2.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.9
United States 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.1 1.1 1.9 2.3 1.9 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.0

Table 16: Price deflator of private consumption (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 2.1 2.3 1.6 0.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.1 1.6
Germany 1.3 1.1 1.5 0.6 0.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.6
Estonia 3.9 5.2 3.4 -0.1 0.9 3.7 3.3 2.6 2.3 3.6 3.4 2.5
Ireland 4.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.4 1.5
Greece 2.8 3.0 0.4 -1.7 -0.8 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.3 1.2 0.9
Spain 3.4 2.6 1.6 -0.2 0.0 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.5
France 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.3 -0.1 1.3 1.7 1.2 1.2 1.8 1.7 1.6
Italy 2.8 1.9 1.7 0.2 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.4
Cyprus 1.6 3.1 1.3 -1.6 -1.4 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.4
Latvia 4.5 8.0 1.7 -1.0 1.1 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.4
Lithuania -0.3 5.6 1.9 -0.9 0.9 3.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.5
Luxembourg 2.1 2.1 1.7 -0.1 0.4 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6 2.0 1.9
Malta 2.0 2.5 1.7 1.7 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.9 0.9 1.4 1.6
Netherlands 2.7 1.4 1.6 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.0 2.5 1.8 1.7 2.5 1.9
Austria 1.8 1.9 2.3 1.5 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.0
Portugal 3.4 2.3 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6
Slovenia 6.1 3.0 1.4 -0.6 -0.5 1.7 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4
Slovakia 6.1 2.9 1.9 -0.1 -0.3 1.4 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.4
Finland 1.7 1.9 2.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.7
Euro area 2.2 1.7 1.5 0.3 0.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.6
Bulgaria 3.6 4.9 1.3 1.2 -0.1 2.3 2.5 2.0 1.8 2.6 2.0 1.8
Czechia 2.3 2.3 1.2 0.1 0.5 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.2 1.8
Denmark 1.9 2.0 1.7 0.4 0.5 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.7 2.0
Croatia 3.3 3.7 1.7 -0.5 -1.2 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.4
Hungary 7.3 4.6 3.2 -0.2 -0.2 2.6 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.0
Poland 4.3 2.5 2.2 -1.1 -0.4 1.7 1.7 2.1 2.6 1.5 2.3 2.4
Romania 23.9 6.6 3.6 1.0 0.7 2.7 3.7 3.3 3.1 3.5 3.4 3.0
Sweden 1.4 1.8 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.7 2.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8
EU27 2.4 1.9 1.5 0.3 0.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.7
United Kingdom 0.9 2.3 2.4 0.5 1.5 2.1 2.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.5 2.1
EU 2.1 2.0 1.7 0.3 0.6 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.7
Japan -1.0 -0.5 -0.2 0.4 -0.5 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.7
United States 2.0 2.2 1.8 0.2 1.1 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.0

181
European Economic Forecast, Spring 2019

Table 17: Harmonised index of consumer prices (national index if not available), (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 2.0 2.2 2.0 0.6 1.8 2.2 2.3 1.8 1.6 2.3 2.1 1.6
Germany 1.5 1.8 1.6 0.7 0.4 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.6
Estonia 3.5 5.2 3.2 0.1 0.8 3.7 3.4 2.4 2.2 3.5 3.3 2.5
Ireland 4.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.7 1.2 1.4
Greece 3.4 3.1 1.3 -1.1 0.0 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.0
Spain 3.2 2.7 1.8 -0.6 -0.3 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.5
France 2.0 1.7 1.6 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.1 1.3 1.4 2.1 1.7 1.6
Italy 2.5 2.1 1.9 0.1 -0.1 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.4
Cyprus 3.1 2.2 1.9 -1.5 -1.2 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.3 1.4
Latvia 3.2 8.4 1.2 0.2 0.1 2.9 2.6 2.8 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.4
Lithuania 0.6 5.5 2.0 -0.7 0.7 3.7 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.2 2.1
Luxembourg 2.8 2.7 2.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.8
Malta 2.6 2.5 1.9 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.0
Netherlands 3.0 1.6 1.8 0.2 0.1 1.3 1.6 2.5 1.5 1.6 2.5 1.7
Austria 1.8 1.9 2.3 0.8 1.0 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.0
Portugal 3.3 1.9 1.6 0.5 0.6 1.6 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6
Slovenia 6.9 3.0 1.8 -0.8 -0.2 1.6 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.2
Slovakia 7.8 2.8 2.0 -0.3 -0.5 1.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.4
Finland 1.8 1.8 2.3 -0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.8
Euro area 2.2 2.0 1.7 0.2 0.2 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.6
Bulgaria 6.4 7.1 1.5 -1.1 -1.3 1.2 2.6 2.0 1.8 2.6 2.0 1.8
Czechia 2.5 2.7 1.7 0.3 0.6 2.4 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.8
Denmark 2.1 2.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 0.7 1.3 1.5 0.8 1.5 1.7
Croatia 3.2 3.4 1.8 -0.3 -0.6 1.3 1.6 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.4
Hungary 7.1 5.1 3.2 0.1 0.4 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.0
Poland 4.3 2.8 2.2 -0.7 -0.2 1.6 1.2 1.8 2.5 1.2 2.6 2.7
Romania 26.0 6.8 4.0 -0.4 -1.1 1.1 4.1 3.6 3.0 4.3 3.5 3.3
Sweden 1.9 1.9 1.0 0.7 1.1 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.6 2.1 1.9 1.6
EU27 2.6 2.3 1.8 0.1 0.2 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.7
United Kingdom 1.2 2.5 2.9 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.5 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.0 1.9
EU 2.7 2.3 2.0 0.1 0.2 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.8
Japan -0.5 0.0 0.4 0.8 -0.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.3
United States 2.5 2.6 2.0 0.1 1.3 2.1 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.4 2.2

Incorrect slice name

Table 18: Harmonised index of consumer prices (national index if not available), (percentage change on preceding year, 2018-20) 24.4.2019

2018/1 2018/2 2018/3 2018/4 2019/1 2019/2 2019/3 2019/4 2020/1 2020/2 2020/3 2020/4
Belgium 1.6 2.2 2.7 2.8 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.5 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.4
Germany 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.4
Estonia 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.0
Ireland 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.4
Greece 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6
Spain 1.1 1.8 2.3 1.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4
France 1.5 2.1 2.6 2.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3
Italy 0.9 1.0 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2
Cyprus -0.8 0.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.1
Latvia 2.0 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.3
Lithuania 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
Luxembourg 1.2 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.6
Malta 1.3 1.7 2.4 1.6 1.1 2.0 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.7 2.2 1.8
Netherlands 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4
Austria 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8
Portugal 0.9 1.2 1.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6
Slovenia 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.2
Slovakia 2.4 2.9 2.7 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2
Finland 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7
Euro area 1.3 1.7 2.1 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4
Bulgaria 1.6 2.4 3.6 3.0 2.5 2.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Czechia 1.7 2.1 2.3 1.8 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.7 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.1
Denmark 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6
Croatia 1.1 1.8 2.0 1.3 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3
Hungary 2.0 2.8 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.7 3.2 2.9 2.9
Poland 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.6
Romania 3.7 4.5 4.6 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.8
Sweden 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.6
EU27 1.3 1.8 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5
United Kingdom 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.3 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.3
EU 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6
Japan 1.3 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.4
United States 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9

182
 Statistical Annex

Table 19: Price deflator of exports of goods in national currency (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 0.8 1.2 1.7 -3.7 -2.6 2.4 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 2.0 1.2
Germany 0.2 0.1 1.2 0.9 -1.0 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.6
Estonia 2.5 3.3 1.6 -1.7 0.0 4.0 2.4 1.3 1.6 2.4 1.4 1.4
Ireland -1.2 -0.2 0.4 9.9 -4.0 -2.0 -3.4 -0.3 0.4 -1.4 0.4 0.5
Greece 2.8 1.8 3.1 -11.5 -5.5 7.3 5.5 2.4 1.7 4.2 0.4 1.1
Spain 1.2 1.7 1.5 0.7 -1.5 3.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.7 0.5
France -0.6 0.8 1.2 0.6 -2.0 1.3 0.6 1.3 1.4 0.3 1.5 1.1
Italy 1.6 1.4 1.6 -0.4 -0.8 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.9 2.1 1.0
Cyprus 2.6 2.8 1.4 0.8 -0.9 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.8
Latvia 5.1 6.0 4.9 0.2 -2.7 4.2 3.2 1.5 1.2 3.2 1.2 1.5
Lithuania 1.6 3.0 4.6 -6.5 -3.1 4.7 3.8 2.3 1.6 2.5 2.3 2.1
Luxembourg 1.7 3.0 2.0 -2.0 -1.0 4.0 3.7 1.8 1.2 1.4 1.5 0.7
Malta 1.8 0.9 2.0 0.5 -4.9 4.8 4.4 4.5 4.5 5.5 3.0 3.0
Netherlands 0.4 0.9 2.1 -2.6 -3.6 3.7 2.3 0.9 1.3 2.4 1.4 1.2
Austria 0.5 1.1 1.3 -1.0 -1.1 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.5
Portugal 0.8 0.8 1.7 -2.6 -2.9 3.3 1.9 1.6 1.2 1.9 1.6 1.2
Slovenia 5.4 1.3 1.1 -0.6 -2.1 2.6 2.6 1.8 1.5 2.3 1.8 1.2
Slovakia 5.3 -0.3 0.4 -1.3 -1.7 2.2 1.6 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.0
Finland -1.1 -0.9 1.5 -1.7 -2.9 3.9 4.8 1.0 1.3 2.6 2.2 2.2
Euro area 0.4 0.7 1.4 0.0 -1.9 1.9 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.4 0.9
Bulgaria -2.5 8.9 3.3 -2.3 -2.4 7.7 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Czechia 0.0 -1.8 1.6 -1.4 -2.8 -0.6 -0.9 0.7 0.2 -0.8 0.6 1.5
Denmark 1.5 2.2 2.2 -0.7 -0.8 0.3 0.4 2.5 1.4 0.1 1.4 1.3
Croatia 4.4 2.4 2.3 -2.3 -3.1 1.2 0.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.3
Hungary 0.9 0.8 1.8 -0.3 -1.0 1.7 3.0 1.7 1.5 2.7 1.9 1.5
Poland 4.8 2.6 2.5 1.6 0.3 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.9 2.0
Romania 26.0 6.7 2.4 -0.3 -8.9 3.3 5.6 4.8 3.9 4.3 3.2 3.1
Sweden -0.4 2.6 -1.1 1.6 -1.6 4.1 5.7 4.3 1.7 5.5 2.4 1.2
EU27 0.6 0.9 1.4 0.1 -1.8 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.0
United Kingdom 0.2 3.5 1.7 -8.3 5.7 6.2 3.6 1.6 1.4 3.2 2.3 1.1
EU 0.5 1.2 1.4 -0.6 -1.2 2.3 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.0
Japan -1.9 -2.1 1.4 0.8 -8.7 4.5 1.3 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.0 1.0
United States 0.9 1.6 2.0 -7.2 -3.8 3.0 3.6 0.6 1.2 4.2 1.8 1.2

Table 20: Price deflator of imports of goods in national currency (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 1.7 1.3 2.7 -5.4 -3.1 3.9 3.5 1.5 1.3 1.1 2.0 0.8
Germany 0.4 -0.1 1.7 -2.2 -3.2 3.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 1.7 1.1 0.6
Estonia 0.4 2.3 2.2 -2.0 -1.1 3.1 2.4 1.2 1.4 2.0 1.4 1.4
Ireland 0.3 -1.6 1.8 1.8 -6.2 3.5 1.1 0.6 0.6 -1.5 0.4 0.5
Greece 3.1 2.7 2.0 -12.0 -3.3 6.1 6.5 2.0 1.0 3.8 1.4 0.9
Spain 1.5 1.0 3.1 -1.4 -1.6 4.1 3.4 0.8 1.3 2.8 2.3 0.6
France -0.3 0.5 1.7 -3.6 -2.9 2.7 2.5 1.4 1.3 2.2 1.7 0.6
Italy 2.3 1.7 2.3 -4.3 -4.3 4.1 3.5 2.2 1.3 2.6 2.2 0.8
Cyprus 1.9 2.9 1.0 -2.4 -0.5 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 0.1 1.4 1.0
Latvia 5.8 5.9 4.2 -2.1 -6.0 3.3 1.6 1.6 1.4 2.0 2.5 1.3
Lithuania -1.4 3.7 4.5 -8.7 -5.3 4.1 4.7 1.8 1.3 3.0 2.1 1.2
Luxembourg 2.1 1.5 1.3 1.1 -5.7 3.6 2.7 1.6 1.1 0.9 1.8 0.7
Malta 1.5 0.5 0.3 -0.4 -0.5 0.4 2.3 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.0 2.0
Netherlands -0.2 0.7 2.8 -5.0 -4.5 4.2 2.5 1.0 1.3 2.2 1.3 1.2
Austria 0.1 1.2 2.1 -2.6 -1.8 3.2 2.3 0.5 0.8 2.0 0.6 0.6
Portugal 1.2 0.4 1.5 -5.2 -3.9 4.3 2.5 1.4 1.0 2.2 1.4 1.0
Slovenia 5.5 1.3 2.4 -1.9 -2.9 3.3 2.9 2.1 1.0 2.9 2.0 1.0
Slovakia 4.7 1.0 1.2 -1.1 -1.3 3.0 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.1
Finland -0.3 0.5 2.3 -6.2 -3.4 4.3 4.4 1.8 1.3 3.9 1.6 1.1
Euro area 0.8 0.7 2.1 -3.3 -3.3 3.5 2.7 1.1 0.9 2.0 1.5 0.8
Bulgaria 2.8 5.1 3.0 -2.9 -6.0 7.5 2.3 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.4
Czechia -0.6 -1.1 2.0 -1.9 -3.8 0.7 -0.5 1.0 0.2 -0.4 0.2 1.0
Denmark 0.6 0.5 2.1 -2.5 -2.8 1.5 2.7 2.2 1.3 0.7 1.7 1.2
Croatia 2.4 1.9 1.9 -1.2 -2.5 2.6 1.1 1.3 1.3 0.9 1.6 1.0
Hungary 1.7 1.6 2.0 -1.1 -2.5 1.7 4.0 1.6 1.5 3.6 2.6 1.5
Poland 5.2 1.5 2.6 -1.3 -0.3 1.3 2.8 2.2 1.7 2.5 1.8 1.8
Romania 21.6 1.4 2.2 -1.3 -7.3 4.7 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.5
Sweden 1.0 2.5 -0.9 -0.1 -2.2 4.7 6.7 4.0 1.4 6.2 2.7 1.3
EU27 1.0 0.9 2.1 -3.0 -3.2 3.3 2.8 1.3 1.0 2.1 1.6 0.9
United Kingdom -0.7 3.8 1.4 -6.7 2.8 5.6 3.3 0.7 0.5 2.8 1.9 0.2
EU 0.8 1.2 2.0 -3.4 -2.4 3.6 2.8 1.2 0.9 2.2 1.7 0.9
Japan 0.7 1.6 5.7 -9.6 -15.0 9.9 6.6 1.0 1.6 1.0 1.6 1.6
United States 1.4 2.1 2.2 -9.6 -4.2 2.4 3.0 0.5 1.2 3.4 1.4 1.2

183
European Economic Forecast, Spring 2019

Table 21: Terms of trade of goods (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium -0.8 -0.1 -0.9 1.8 0.5 -1.4 -1.9 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4
Germany -0.2 0.2 -0.5 3.1 2.3 -1.6 -1.0 0.4 0.4 -0.8 0.0 0.0
Estonia 2.1 1.0 -0.6 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
Ireland -1.5 1.4 -1.4 8.0 2.3 -5.3 -4.5 -0.9 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Greece -0.3 -0.9 1.1 0.6 -2.3 1.2 -1.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 -1.0 0.2
Spain -0.2 0.7 -1.6 2.1 0.1 -0.8 -2.1 0.3 -0.1 -1.6 -0.6 -0.1
France -0.3 0.3 -0.5 4.4 1.0 -1.4 -1.8 -0.1 0.2 -1.9 -0.2 0.5
Italy -0.7 -0.3 -0.8 4.2 3.6 -2.3 -1.6 -0.5 0.0 -0.7 -0.1 0.2
Cyprus 0.6 -0.1 0.4 3.2 -0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.8 -0.2 0.8
Latvia -0.7 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.5 0.9 1.6 -0.1 -0.2 1.2 -1.3 0.2
Lithuania 3.1 -0.6 0.1 2.5 2.4 0.5 -0.9 0.4 0.3 -0.5 0.2 0.9
Luxembourg -0.4 1.5 0.6 -3.1 5.0 0.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.5 -0.3 0.0
Malta 0.3 0.4 1.6 0.9 -4.5 4.4 2.0 1.5 1.7 2.8 1.0 1.0
Netherlands 0.6 0.2 -0.7 2.4 1.0 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
Austria 0.4 -0.2 -0.8 1.7 0.7 -1.4 -1.2 0.1 0.0 -0.8 -0.1 -0.1
Portugal -0.4 0.4 0.1 2.7 1.0 -0.9 -0.6 0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.2
Slovenia -0.2 0.0 -1.2 1.3 0.8 -0.6 -0.2 -0.3 0.5 -0.6 -0.2 0.2
Slovakia 0.6 -1.2 -0.8 -0.2 -0.4 -0.8 -0.9 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1
Finland -0.8 -1.4 -0.7 4.8 0.5 -0.4 0.4 -0.8 0.0 -1.2 0.6 1.1
Euro area -0.3 0.0 -0.7 3.4 1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -0.1 0.1 -0.8 -0.2 0.1
Bulgaria -5.2 3.7 0.3 0.6 3.9 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.4
Czechia 0.6 -0.7 -0.4 0.5 1.0 -1.4 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 -0.4 0.3 0.5
Denmark 0.8 1.6 0.1 1.9 2.1 -1.2 -2.3 0.3 0.1 -0.6 -0.3 0.1
Croatia 1.9 0.5 0.5 -1.2 -0.6 -1.3 -0.5 0.1 0.2 0.7 -0.1 0.3
Hungary -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 0.8 1.5 0.0 -1.0 0.1 0.0 -0.8 -0.7 0.0
Poland -0.3 1.0 -0.1 2.9 0.6 0.3 -1.0 -0.7 -0.5 -1.2 0.1 0.2
Romania 3.6 5.3 0.2 1.0 -1.7 -1.3 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.8 -0.6 -0.4
Sweden -1.4 0.1 -0.2 1.7 0.7 -0.6 -1.0 0.3 0.3 -0.7 -0.3 -0.2
EU27 -0.4 0.0 -0.6 3.1 1.4 -1.4 -1.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.8 -0.1 0.1
United Kingdom 1.0 -0.2 0.2 -1.7 2.8 0.6 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.9
EU -0.2 0.1 -0.6 2.4 1.8 -1.0 -1.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.7 -0.1 0.2
Japan -2.6 -3.6 -4.1 11.5 7.4 -4.9 -4.9 -0.2 -0.6 0.4 -0.6 -0.6
United States -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 2.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.4 0.0

Table 22: Total population (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Germany 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2
Estonia -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1
Ireland 1.6 2.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9
Greece 0.4 0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6
Spain 1.2 1.6 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5
France 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Italy 0.3 0.6 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cyprus 1.2 2.1 1.1 -0.6 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6
Latvia -1.1 -1.1 -1.4 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7
Lithuania -0.8 -1.3 -1.5 -0.9 -1.3 -1.6 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -1.1 -0.9 -0.9
Luxembourg 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.0 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.7 2.5 2.4 2.2
Malta 0.7 0.6 1.1 2.4 2.3 2.8 2.9 1.6 1.5 2.5 1.6 1.5
Netherlands 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
Austria 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.8
Portugal 0.5 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1
Slovenia 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Slovakia 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Finland 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4
Euro area 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Bulgaria -1.1 -0.5 -1.0 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3
Czechia -0.1 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1
Denmark 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5
Croatia -0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5
Hungary -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
Poland 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1
Romania -0.9 -1.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6
Sweden 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.7 0.9 1.0
EU27 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
United Kingdom 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
EU 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
Japan 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
United States 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

184
 Statistical Annex

Table 23: Total employment (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.6
Germany 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.5 1.3 0.8 0.7
Estonia 0.6 -0.6 1.0 2.9 0.3 2.7 1.2 0.6 -0.1 0.8 0.3 -0.1
Ireland 2.9 1.1 -0.2 3.5 3.8 2.9 3.5 2.0 1.8 3.1 2.6 2.0
Greece 1.4 1.0 -3.5 0.7 0.5 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.2
Spain 3.3 0.9 -2.5 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.0 1.7 2.4 1.7 1.5
France 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8
Italy 1.1 -0.1 -0.9 0.7 1.3 0.9 0.8 -0.1 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.9
Cyprus 2.7 2.7 -2.1 1.5 4.6 4.3 4.0 2.6 2.0 3.9 2.8 2.3
Latvia 0.1 -0.9 -0.6 1.4 -0.3 0.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 1.5 0.3 0.1
Lithuania -0.7 -1.3 0.1 1.3 2.0 -0.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5
Luxembourg 3.6 3.4 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.1 2.8 3.6 3.3 2.8
Malta 0.2 1.5 3.3 4.1 4.3 7.8 5.6 4.0 3.4 5.0 3.6 3.4
Netherlands 0.2 1.2 -0.4 1.0 1.4 2.2 2.5 1.4 0.7 2.1 1.4 0.8
Austria 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.6 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.5 1.8 1.1 0.8
Portugal 0.5 -0.5 -1.8 1.4 1.6 3.3 2.3 1.1 0.8 2.2 1.3 0.8
Slovenia 0.7 1.0 -1.1 1.3 1.8 2.9 3.0 2.3 2.1 3.0 2.5 1.7
Slovakia -0.1 1.4 0.2 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 0.8 0.4 1.7 1.0 0.6
Finland 1.1 1.1 0.1 -0.1 0.5 1.2 2.7 0.9 0.6 2.2 1.1 0.9
Euro area 1.0 0.6 -0.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.9
Bulgaria 0.5 2.0 -1.7 0.4 0.5 1.8 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.2
Czechia -0.3 1.1 0.0 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.9 0.7 1.6 0.3 0.0
Denmark 0.1 0.8 -0.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.1 0.9 1.7 1.1 0.8
Croatia 0.7 1.7 -2.2 1.2 0.3 2.2 2.4 1.6 1.3 2.3 2.0 1.3
Hungary 0.0 -0.8 1.0 2.4 3.1 2.0 2.2 1.4 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1
Poland -1.4 2.8 -0.1 1.5 0.8 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.1
Romania -2.7 -0.5 -1.2 -1.3 -1.1 2.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.1
Sweden 0.7 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.3 1.8 0.8 0.6 1.7 0.9 0.7
EU27 0.5 0.7 -0.3 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.4 0.8 0.7 1.3 0.9 0.7
United Kingdom 1.0 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.3
EU 0.6 0.7 -0.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.7
Japan -0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 1.8 0.5 0.2
United States 0.8 0.1 0.9 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.6 1.2 0.8 1.5 1.2 0.7
Note: See note 6 on concepts and sources where countries using full time equivalents are listed.

Table 24: Unemployment rate ¹ (number of unemployed as a percentage of total labour force, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.5 7.8 7.1 6.0 5.6 5.3 6.4 6.1 5.9
Germany 8.9 9.0 5.7 4.6 4.1 3.8 3.4 3.1 2.7 3.5 3.2 3.0
Estonia 11.8 7.5 11.0 6.2 6.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 6.0 6.0
Ireland 4.6 6.8 14.2 10.0 8.4 6.7 5.8 5.4 5.0 5.6 5.1 4.9
Greece 10.5 9.0 21.8 24.9 23.6 21.5 19.3 18.2 16.8 19.6 18.2 16.9
Spain 11.3 11.0 23.3 22.1 19.6 17.2 15.3 13.5 12.2 15.6 14.4 13.3
France 8.3 8.4 9.8 10.4 10.1 9.4 9.1 8.8 8.5 9.0 8.8 8.4
Italy 8.8 7.0 10.5 11.9 11.7 11.2 10.6 10.9 11.0 10.7 10.4 10.0
Cyprus 4.2 4.6 11.6 15.0 13.0 11.1 8.4 6.7 5.9 8.2 6.3 4.8
Latvia 12.7 9.7 14.7 9.9 9.6 8.7 7.4 6.9 6.7 7.3 6.7 6.5
Lithuania 14.2 7.6 13.8 9.1 7.9 7.1 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.5 6.3 6.3
Luxembourg 3.1 4.7 5.3 6.5 6.3 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.2
Malta 7.2 6.6 6.3 5.4 4.7 4.0 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0
Netherlands 4.2 4.6 6.1 6.9 6.0 4.9 3.8 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.6 3.6
Austria 4.5 5.0 5.1 5.7 6.0 5.5 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.6 4.4
Portugal 6.3 9.3 14.2 12.6 11.2 9.0 7.0 6.2 5.7 7.1 6.3 5.9
Slovenia 6.4 5.5 8.8 9.0 8.0 6.6 5.1 4.8 4.6 5.6 5.3 5.1
Slovakia 18.7 12.6 13.9 11.5 9.7 8.1 6.5 5.9 5.6 6.9 6.3 6.0
Finland 9.2 7.5 8.2 9.4 8.8 8.6 7.4 6.7 6.2 7.8 7.2 6.9
Euro area 8.8 8.4 11.1 10.9 10.0 9.1 8.2 7.7 7.3 8.4 7.9 7.5
Bulgaria 16.0 7.7 11.7 9.2 7.6 6.2 5.2 5.0 4.8 6.0 5.8 5.7
Czechia 8.1 6.3 6.8 5.1 4.0 2.9 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6
Denmark 4.9 4.4 7.2 6.2 6.2 5.7 5.0 4.8 4.7 5.2 4.9 4.7
Croatia 15.0 10.5 15.2 16.1 13.4 11.0 8.5 7.8 6.9 9.1 7.6 6.6
Hungary 5.9 8.0 10.2 6.8 5.1 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.3 3.2
Poland 18.7 11.3 9.8 7.5 6.2 4.9 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.3 2.9 2.8
Romania 7.8 6.6 7.0 6.8 5.9 4.9 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.1
Sweden 6.5 7.1 8.1 7.4 6.9 6.7 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.2
EU27 9.6 8.5 10.6 10.0 9.1 8.1 7.3 6.9 6.6 : : :
United Kingdom 5.0 5.7 7.5 5.3 4.8 4.4 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.7
EU 9.0 8.1 10.2 9.4 8.6 7.6 6.8 6.5 6.2 6.9 6.6 6.3
Japan 5.0 4.3 4.3 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.5
United States 5.2 5.9 8.0 5.3 4.9 4.4 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.5 3.5
¹ Series following Eurostat definition, based on the Labour Force Survey.

185
European Economic Forecast, Spring 2019

Table 25: Compensation of employees per head (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 2.6 2.7 2.2 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.1
Germany 1.2 0.9 2.5 2.7 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.2 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0
Estonia 11.1 11.3 4.5 3.3 6.3 6.9 8.8 6.1 5.6 7.0 6.0 5.6
Ireland 6.5 3.6 -0.1 2.6 2.1 0.9 2.9 3.2 3.6 2.7 3.0 3.4
Greece 6.7 4.6 -3.7 -2.4 -0.9 0.5 1.3 2.4 1.7 0.9 1.3 2.0
Spain 3.4 4.7 0.6 0.8 -0.5 0.3 0.8 2.0 1.8 1.0 2.4 1.7
France 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.0 0.8 1.9 1.7 0.0 1.8 2.3 0.4 2.2
Italy 3.3 2.8 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.3 2.0 0.9 1.0 1.8 0.9 1.0
Cyprus 4.9 4.3 -0.9 -1.3 -1.1 0.7 0.1 2.5 2.8 1.5 2.2 2.2
Latvia 8.9 16.9 3.4 7.7 7.3 8.0 7.8 6.2 5.0 7.1 5.8 5.8
Lithuania 6.4 10.2 4.1 5.9 6.7 8.7 7.7 7.0 5.9 8.2 7.7 6.0
Luxembourg 3.6 3.3 2.3 1.6 0.9 3.3 2.1 3.0 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.3
Malta 4.9 3.3 2.4 5.5 2.9 -0.3 1.6 2.4 2.5 2.3 3.2 3.1
Netherlands 4.2 2.6 1.8 -0.2 1.2 1.1 2.2 2.7 2.8 2.4 3.1 3.5
Austria 1.9 2.6 2.0 1.9 2.4 1.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.4
Portugal 4.0 3.0 -0.2 0.4 1.7 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.3 1.8 2.1 2.1
Slovenia 9.1 5.3 1.3 1.3 3.0 3.2 4.0 4.8 3.7 3.3 3.3 3.4
Slovakia 8.7 7.0 2.9 3.5 2.1 5.2 5.4 6.8 6.7 5.0 6.4 6.2
Finland 3.0 3.3 2.2 1.4 1.1 -1.2 1.2 3.4 2.9 1.4 2.2 2.4
Euro area 2.6 2.5 1.8 1.3 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.4
Bulgaria 7.9 10.6 7.8 5.6 5.8 10.5 5.6 6.9 5.9 8.0 7.6 6.3
Czechia 7.8 3.9 2.0 3.0 4.0 6.4 7.6 5.0 4.2 8.0 7.8 5.6
Denmark 3.5 3.5 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.5 2.8
Croatia 6.4 3.8 -0.1 0.4 1.3 -1.1 1.9 3.6 3.4 2.0 1.7 1.5
Hungary 12.9 4.8 1.8 -1.5 4.4 6.2 9.6 6.6 6.5 8.1 6.6 6.2
Poland 5.3 4.3 4.3 1.7 4.8 5.8 7.5 8.0 7.9 6.1 7.0 7.4
Romania 34.9 15.4 4.7 1.9 15.0 12.6 18.4 13.5 9.0 13.0 6.7 6.7
Sweden 4.4 3.6 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.0 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.5
EU27 3.2 2.6 1.9 1.3 1.4 1.9 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.8
United Kingdom 4.6 3.5 1.8 1.1 2.8 3.1 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.2
EU 3.5 2.8 1.9 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.8
Japan -1.3 -1.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.5 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.3 1.2 1.1
United States 3.4 2.7 2.5 3.1 0.9 3.1 2.7 3.0 3.3 2.9 3.2 3.4
Note: See note 6 on concepts and sources where countries using full time equivalents are listed.

Table 26: Real compensation of employees per head ¹ (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 0.5 0.4 0.6 -0.6 -1.2 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.5
Germany -0.1 -0.2 1.0 2.1 1.5 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.3
Estonia 6.9 5.8 1.0 3.4 5.3 3.1 5.4 3.5 3.2 3.3 2.5 3.1
Ireland 2.4 3.2 -0.8 2.2 1.3 -0.4 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.8
Greece 3.8 1.5 -4.0 -0.7 -0.2 0.0 1.0 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 1.1
Spain 0.0 2.1 -1.0 1.0 -0.5 -1.3 -0.8 0.8 0.2 -0.8 0.6 0.2
France 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.1 -1.2 0.6 0.6 -1.3 0.6
Italy 0.4 0.8 -0.6 0.8 0.0 -0.8 0.9 0.0 -0.2 0.4 -0.6 -0.4
Cyprus 3.2 1.2 -2.2 0.4 0.3 -0.1 -1.1 1.6 1.6 0.7 0.9 0.8
Latvia 4.2 8.2 1.6 8.9 6.1 4.7 4.9 3.3 2.6 4.3 3.0 3.3
Lithuania 6.8 4.3 2.1 6.8 5.8 5.1 5.2 4.4 3.5 5.4 5.1 3.4
Luxembourg 1.4 1.2 0.6 1.7 0.5 1.7 0.4 1.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4
Malta 2.8 0.8 0.7 3.8 2.2 -1.3 0.9 1.0 0.6 1.4 1.8 1.5
Netherlands 1.5 1.2 0.2 -0.4 0.7 -0.5 0.2 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.6 1.6
Austria 0.2 0.7 -0.3 0.4 1.0 -0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4
Portugal 0.6 0.7 -1.5 -0.5 0.7 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.5
Slovenia 2.9 2.2 -0.1 1.9 3.6 1.4 1.5 2.5 1.3 0.8 0.8 1.0
Slovakia 2.5 3.9 1.0 3.6 2.4 3.7 3.1 4.2 4.3 2.4 3.7 3.8
Finland 1.2 1.4 -0.1 1.0 0.6 -1.8 -0.1 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.8 0.7
Euro area 0.4 0.8 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.8
Bulgaria 4.2 5.4 6.3 4.4 5.9 8.0 3.0 4.8 4.0 5.2 5.4 4.4
Czechia 5.4 1.6 0.9 2.9 3.4 4.0 4.9 2.4 1.7 5.5 5.5 3.8
Denmark 1.6 1.5 0.2 1.3 1.0 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7
Croatia 3.0 0.1 -1.8 0.9 2.5 -2.0 0.7 2.6 2.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
Hungary 5.2 0.1 -1.4 -1.3 4.6 3.6 6.2 3.3 3.3 5.0 3.2 3.1
Poland 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.9 5.2 4.1 5.8 5.8 5.2 4.5 4.5 4.9
Romania 8.9 8.3 1.1 1.0 14.1 9.7 14.2 9.9 5.7 9.1 3.1 3.6
Sweden 3.0 1.7 1.4 1.8 1.5 0.3 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.6
EU27 0.8 0.7 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.5 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.6 1.1
United Kingdom 3.7 1.1 -0.5 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.4 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.6 1.0
EU 1.3 0.8 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.1
Japan -0.3 -0.5 0.3 0.1 1.7 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4
United States 1.4 0.5 0.7 2.9 -0.2 1.3 0.6 1.2 1.5 0.8 0.9 1.3
¹ Deflated by the price deflator of private consumption.
Note: See note 6 on concepts and sources where countries using full time equivalents are listed.

186
 Statistical Annex

Table 27: Labour productivity (real GDP per occupied person) (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 1.3 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8
Germany 0.9 -0.2 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.1 -0.2 1.0 0.4 1.0 1.0
Estonia 6.7 1.7 2.8 -0.9 3.2 2.1 2.6 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.7
Ireland 3.1 0.2 3.4 20.9 1.2 4.2 3.0 1.7 1.5 4.6 1.9 1.7
Greece 3.1 0.0 -1.5 -1.2 -0.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.8
Spain 0.4 0.9 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5
France 1.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.8
Italy 0.4 -0.4 0.4 0.3 -0.2 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4
Cyprus 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.7 0.6
Latvia 7.0 3.6 2.7 1.5 2.4 4.7 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.9 2.9
Lithuania 7.6 3.8 3.7 0.7 0.4 4.7 2.4 2.4 2.3 3.8 3.3 3.0
Luxembourg 0.3 -1.2 0.7 1.3 -0.6 -1.8 -1.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1
Malta 2.4 0.5 0.8 6.4 1.4 -1.1 0.9 1.4 1.3 0.4 1.3 1.0
Netherlands 1.6 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.0
Austria 1.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.0
Portugal 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.3 -0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.5 0.9
Slovenia 2.9 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.9 1.5 0.8 0.6 1.3 0.8 1.2
Slovakia 4.0 3.6 2.6 2.2 0.7 1.0 2.1 3.0 3.0 2.3 3.1 2.9
Finland 2.0 -0.3 0.5 0.6 2.3 1.5 -0.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.1
Euro area 1.0 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.9
Bulgaria 4.7 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.4 2.0 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.0 3.4 3.4
Czechia 3.8 2.1 1.1 3.8 0.8 2.8 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.4 2.7 2.5
Denmark 1.5 -0.5 1.7 1.0 0.9 0.6 -0.4 0.6 0.7 -0.5 0.7 0.8
Croatia 3.7 0.0 1.4 1.1 3.2 0.7 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.8 1.2
Hungary 4.3 1.4 0.4 1.1 -0.7 2.1 2.7 2.3 2.4 3.4 3.0 2.5
Poland 4.7 1.9 3.1 2.3 2.2 3.4 4.8 3.9 3.6 4.1 3.4 3.2
Romania 8.2 5.1 2.6 5.2 6.0 4.3 3.9 2.9 2.9 3.3 4.0 3.5
Sweden 2.3 0.4 1.2 2.9 0.8 -0.2 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.1
EU27 1.6 0.2 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.1
United Kingdom 1.9 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9
EU 1.7 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1
Japan 1.7 -0.6 1.5 0.8 -0.3 0.9 -0.2 0.3 0.4 -0.7 0.5 0.3
United States 1.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 -0.1 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.2
Note : See note 6 on concepts and sources where countries using full time equivalents are listed.

Table 28: Unit labour costs, whole economy ¹ (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 1.3 2.6 1.5 -0.8 0.3 1.6 1.8 2.2 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.3
Germany 0.4 1.1 1.2 1.9 1.3 1.8 2.8 3.4 1.8 2.5 2.0 2.0
Estonia 4.1 9.5 1.7 4.3 3.0 4.7 6.1 3.9 3.0 4.2 3.4 2.8
Ireland 3.4 3.4 -3.5 -15.2 0.9 -3.2 -0.2 1.4 2.0 -1.8 1.1 1.6
Greece 3.4 4.6 -2.2 -1.3 -0.3 0.6 1.1 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.2
Spain 3.0 3.7 -1.2 0.5 -0.6 0.2 0.8 1.9 1.6 0.9 1.9 1.2
France 1.8 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 -0.5 1.0 1.2 -0.6 1.4
Italy 2.9 3.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 -0.5 1.9 0.7 0.8 1.6 0.8 0.6
Cyprus 3.3 3.8 -1.4 -1.7 -1.4 0.6 0.3 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.6
Latvia 1.8 12.8 0.6 6.1 4.8 3.1 4.6 3.3 2.1 4.4 2.8 2.9
Lithuania -1.1 6.1 0.4 5.1 6.4 3.8 5.2 4.5 3.5 4.2 4.2 2.9
Luxembourg 3.2 4.6 1.6 0.3 1.5 5.2 3.3 3.5 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.4
Malta 2.4 2.7 1.6 -0.8 1.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.9 1.9 2.1
Netherlands 2.6 2.3 0.8 -1.2 0.5 0.5 2.1 2.4 1.9 1.7 2.2 2.5
Austria 0.5 2.4 1.7 1.4 1.6 0.6 1.5 2.1 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.4
Portugal 3.1 2.1 -1.2 0.0 1.4 2.1 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.2
Slovenia 6.1 4.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.3 2.5 3.9 3.1 2.0 2.5 2.2
Slovakia 4.5 3.2 0.3 1.3 1.3 4.2 3.3 3.7 3.6 2.7 3.2 3.3
Finland 0.9 3.6 1.7 0.8 -1.2 -2.7 1.6 2.6 2.3 0.8 1.1 1.3
Euro area 1.8 2.5 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.5
Bulgaria 3.0 7.7 4.7 2.5 2.3 8.4 2.4 3.6 2.5 4.8 4.0 2.8
Czechia 3.9 1.7 0.9 -0.8 3.1 3.6 6.2 3.2 2.5 6.5 5.0 3.0
Denmark 1.9 4.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 1.1 2.4 2.0 1.9 2.7 1.8 2.0
Croatia 2.7 3.9 -1.4 -0.8 -1.8 -1.8 1.7 2.6 2.3 1.5 0.9 0.2
Hungary 8.2 3.4 1.4 -2.6 5.2 4.1 6.7 4.2 4.0 4.5 3.5 3.6
Poland 0.5 2.3 1.2 -0.6 2.5 2.3 2.6 3.9 4.2 1.9 3.5 4.1
Romania 24.6 9.8 2.0 -3.1 8.5 8.0 14.0 10.3 5.9 9.3 2.5 3.0
Sweden 2.0 3.1 1.3 -0.2 1.7 2.2 2.9 2.5 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.3
EU27 2.0 2.6 0.7 0.3 0.9 1.0 : : : : : :
United Kingdom 2.7 3.2 1.0 0.5 2.5 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.3
EU 2.1 2.7 0.8 0.3 1.2 1.2 2.2 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.5 1.8
Japan -3.0 -0.4 -1.3 -0.3 1.5 -0.5 1.4 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.7
United States 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.9 1.0 2.1 1.4 1.8 2.3 1.6 1.7 2.1
¹ Compensation of employees per head divided by labour productivity per head, defined as GDP in volume divided by total employment.
Note: See note 6 on concepts and sources where countries using full time equivalents are listed.

187
European Economic Forecast, Spring 2019

Table 29: Real unit labour costs ¹ (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium -0.6 0.8 0.0 -1.8 -1.5 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.0 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5
Germany -0.5 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 1.0 1.3 -0.2 0.7 0.0 0.1
Estonia -0.7 2.5 -1.6 3.2 1.5 0.8 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.1
Ireland -1.3 2.8 -3.1 -21.0 1.7 -3.6 -1.7 -0.3 0.1 -3.5 -0.7 -0.4
Greece 0.4 1.3 -1.6 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.1
Spain -0.8 0.9 -1.2 0.0 -0.9 -1.0 -0.2 0.4 -0.1 -0.5 0.3 -0.5
France -0.1 0.5 0.3 -0.9 0.2 0.0 0.1 -1.8 -0.3 0.2 -1.9 -0.1
Italy 0.1 1.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.7 -1.0 1.1 0.1 -0.2 0.4 -0.5 -0.8
Cyprus 0.4 0.9 -1.9 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 0.9 0.8 -0.6 0.2 -0.1
Latvia -2.7 3.8 -1.8 6.1 3.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.2
Lithuania -1.7 0.5 -2.1 4.7 4.9 -0.5 1.7 1.4 0.8 1.6 0.6 -0.7
Luxembourg 1.2 1.0 -1.4 0.7 0.6 3.0 -0.5 1.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7
Malta 0.1 0.0 -0.9 -3.2 0.1 -1.7 -1.4 -1.2 -1.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1
Netherlands -0.4 0.5 0.0 -1.9 0.0 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.5
Austria -1.0 0.3 0.0 -0.7 0.2 -0.6 -0.1 0.1 -0.5 0.0 -0.2 -0.5
Portugal -0.4 -0.4 -1.8 -2.0 -0.3 0.5 0.8 0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.1 -0.4
Slovenia 0.0 0.8 -0.6 -0.7 1.0 -0.3 0.2 1.5 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3
Slovakia -1.3 1.6 -0.4 1.4 1.8 2.9 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.1 0.5 0.7
Finland -0.4 1.6 -0.3 -0.8 -1.4 -3.6 -0.4 1.1 0.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.7
Euro area -0.4 0.5 -0.3 -1.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.5 -0.2
Bulgaria -1.9 0.4 3.0 0.2 0.1 4.8 -1.2 0.9 0.3 2.2 1.6 0.6
Czechia 1.0 -0.1 0.2 -2.0 1.8 2.1 4.0 1.1 0.5 4.8 2.6 0.9
Denmark -0.3 1.5 -1.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 2.0 0.4 0.1 1.6 0.2 0.0
Croatia -1.3 -0.1 -2.4 -0.8 -1.8 -2.8 0.0 1.1 0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -1.3
Hungary 0.2 -0.7 -1.4 -4.4 4.3 0.2 2.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.6
Poland -2.7 -0.8 -0.4 -1.3 2.2 0.3 1.5 2.1 1.8 0.8 1.0 1.5
Romania -2.7 -1.6 -1.2 -5.6 5.9 3.2 7.7 4.8 2.1 2.7 -1.2 -0.5
Sweden 0.5 0.9 0.1 -2.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.5 -0.2 -0.4
EU27 -0.7 0.4 -0.4 -1.3 -0.2 -0.3 0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.2
United Kingdom 0.7 0.7 -0.7 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.3
EU -0.5 0.4 -0.5 -1.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 -0.3 -0.1
Japan -1.7 0.5 -0.7 -2.4 1.2 -0.2 1.5 0.2 0.2 0.8 -0.1 -0.2
United States -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 0.8 -0.1 0.2 -0.8 -0.1 0.4 -0.6 -0.5 0.1
¹ Nominal unit labour costs divided by GDP price deflator.
Note: See note 6 on concepts and sources where countries using full time equivalents are listed.

Table 30: Nominal bilateral exchange rates against Ecu/euro (2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium : : : : : : : : : : : :
Germany : : : : : : : : : : : :
Estonia 15.6466 15.6466 : : : : : : : : : :
Ireland : : : : : : : : : : : :
Greece : : : : : : : : : : : :
Spain : : : : : : : : : : : :
France : : : : : : : : : : : :
Italy : : : : : : : : : : : :
Cyprus 0.5782 : : : : : : : : : : :
Latvia 0.6012 0.7002 : : : : : : : : : :
Lithuania 3.5285 3.4528 3.4528 : : : : : : : : :
Luxembourg : : : : : : : : : : : :
Malta 0.4140 : : : : : : : : : : :
Netherlands : : : : : : : : : : : :
Austria : : : : : : : : : : : :
Portugal : : : : : : : : : : : :
Slovenia 224.7013 : : : : : : : : : : :
Slovakia 42.0214 : : : : : : : : : : :
Finland : : : : : : : : : : : :
Euro area : : : : : : : : : : : :
Bulgaria 1.9495 1.9558 1.9558 1.9558 1.9558 1.9558 1.9558 1.9558 1.9558 1.9558 1.9558 1.9558
Czechia 32.8417 27.4541 25.7077 27.2792 27.0343 26.3310 25.6470 25.6522 25.6407 25.6291 25.7958 25.7958
Denmark 7.4414 7.4528 7.4509 7.4587 7.4452 7.4386 7.4533 7.4643 7.4645 7.4526 7.4597 7.4597
Croatia 7.5206 7.3254 7.4926 7.6137 7.5333 7.4634 7.4183 7.4296 7.4322 7.4178 7.4174 7.4174
Hungary 253.0 259.1 289.9 310.0 311.4 309.2 318.8 320.2 320.9 319.1 324.1 324.1
Poland 4.0928 3.9085 4.1364 4.1841 4.3632 4.2568 4.2611 4.2886 4.2842 4.2621 4.3032 4.3032
Romania 3.1051 3.6809 4.3547 4.4454 4.4904 4.5683 4.6540 4.7517 4.7572 4.6558 4.6672 4.6672
Sweden 9.0220 9.6042 9.0042 9.3535 9.4689 9.6347 10.2600 10.4342 10.4401 10.2799 10.4011 10.4011
EU27 : : : : : : : : : : : :
United Kingdom 0.6462 0.7474 0.8384 0.7258 0.8195 0.8763 0.8847 0.8635 0.8605 0.8827 0.8786 0.8786
EU : : : : : : : : : : : :
Japan 118.3271 145.3816 119.9316 134.3140 120.1967 126.6090 130.3781 125.5673 125.7310 130.7409 130.1000 130.1000
United States 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2

188
 Statistical Annex

Table 31: Nominal effective exchange rates to rest of a group ¹ of industrialised countries (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019

5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018

averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 1.2 0.9 -0.3 -2.9 2.1 1.2 2.3 -0.8 -0.1 2.4 0.2 0.0
Germany 1.6 1.0 -0.5 -3.9 2.4 1.4 3.0 -1.1 -0.1 3.2 0.3 0.0
Estonia 1.3 1.4 -0.1 2.7 2.3 -0.2 3.4 -0.2 -0.1 3.5 0.6 0.0
Ireland 1.5 1.5 -0.7 -6.5 2.1 2.0 2.7 -1.8 -0.1 2.9 -0.5 0.0
Greece : : : : : : : : : 4.6 1.2 0.0
Spain 1.4 0.9 -0.3 -2.9 2.2 1.3 2.6 -0.7 -0.1 2.7 0.3 0.0
France 1.4 0.9 -0.5 -3.8 2.1 1.4 2.7 -1.0 -0.1 2.9 0.3 0.0
Italy 1.8 0.9 -0.3 -3.3 2.1 1.4 3.1 -0.9 -0.1 3.3 0.4 0.0
Cyprus 1.9 1.1 -0.5 -4.2 2.3 1.4 2.9 -1.2 -0.1 3.0 0.3 0.0
Latvia -0.2 0.2 0.4 3.7 3.0 -0.6 3.6 -0.3 -0.1 3.7 0.9 0.0
Lithuania 6.4 1.5 0.5 5.4 3.3 -1.2 3.9 -0.5 -0.2 4.0 0.8 0.0
Luxembourg 0.7 0.8 -0.3 -2.0 1.5 0.8 1.6 -0.5 -0.1 1.7 0.2 0.0
Malta 1.4 0.9 -0.6 -5.1 1.5 1.8 2.6 -1.3 -0.1 2.7 0.2 0.0
Netherlands 1.0 0.9 -0.4 -2.7 2.1 1.2 2.1 -0.7 -0.1 2.2 0.2 0.0
Austria 1.1 0.7 -0.2 -2.0 1.6 0.7 2.2 -0.7 -0.1 2.3 0.2 0.0
Portugal 0.9 0.7 -0.3 -2.7 1.8 1.0 1.9 -0.7 -0.1 2.0 0.2 0.0
Slovenia -3.0 0.6 0.2 0.2 1.7 0.1 2.2 -0.2 -0.1 2.3 0.6 0.0
Slovakia 2.6 6.5 -0.1 -0.8 1.9 0.4 1.7 -0.3 -0.1 1.8 0.4 0.0
Finland 1.8 1.3 -0.4 -1.0 2.3 0.7 3.4 -0.8 -0.1 3.6 0.4 0.0
Euro area 2.9 2.0 -0.9 -6.0 4.0 2.4 4.8 -1.5 -0.1 5.3 0.6 0.0
Bulgaria 3.7 1.0 0.4 -0.8 2.4 1.9 4.2 0.4 0.0 4.6 1.6 0.0
Czechia 3.9 4.5 -0.9 0.0 2.8 3.3 4.6 -0.4 0.0 4.8 -0.3 0.0
Denmark 1.1 1.2 -0.7 -2.5 2.2 1.3 2.6 -1.0 -0.1 2.8 0.1 0.0
Croatia 1.7 1.2 -0.6 0.7 3.0 1.2 3.4 -0.4 -0.1 3.6 0.7 0.0
Hungary 1.1 -1.4 -2.0 -1.2 1.2 1.3 -1.0 -0.7 -0.3 -1.0 -1.1 0.0
Poland -0.5 1.7 0.7 -0.3 -2.3 3.2 2.2 -1.1 0.0 2.2 -0.5 0.0
Romania -15.0 0.0 -0.7 -0.7 1.0 -0.7 0.9 -2.2 -0.1 1.1 0.6 0.0
Sweden 0.8 -2.0 2.7 -5.1 1.0 -0.7 -3.7 -2.6 -0.2 -3.9 -1.1 0.0
EU27 3.9 0.7 -0.4 -4.4 1.1 0.8 6.8 -1.4 -0.1 7.2 0.9 0.0
United Kingdom 0.9 -4.7 1.5 6.0 -10.1 -5.6 2.0 1.1 0.3 2.4 0.5 0.0
EU 3.9 0.7 -0.5 -5.6 1.2 1.4 6.2 -1.7 -0.1 6.9 0.8 0.0
Japan 0.3 1.9 -3.2 -5.7 15.0 -3.3 0.5 1.4 -0.3 0.5 0.5 0.0
United States -0.7 -1.4 -0.1 15.1 4.7 -0.3 -0.5 2.5 0.0 -0.8 2.5 0.0
¹ 42 countries: EU-28, TR, CH, NO, US, CA, JP, AU, MX, NZ, KO, CN, HK, RU and BR.

Table 32: Relative unit labour costs, to rest of a group¹ of industrialised countries (nat. curr) (percentage change over preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019

5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018

averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium -0.6 0.2 0.5 -1.6 -1.1 0.3 -0.5 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 :
Germany -1.9 -1.6 0.2 1.3 -0.3 0.5 0.4 1.2 -0.3 0.3 0.1 :
Estonia 2.4 5.8 0.5 3.1 1.3 3.3 3.2 1.1 0.8 1.8 1.2 :
Ireland 1.5 1.0 -4.4 -15.9 -0.4 -4.7 -2.2 -0.7 0.0 -3.7 -0.6 :
Greece 0.2 1.4 -3.7 -2.8 -2.8 -1.2 -2.2 -1.5 -1.7 -3.1 -2.4 :
Spain 0.7 1.2 -2.2 -0.2 -2.2 -1.3 -1.7 -0.3 -0.4 -1.4 0.1 :
France -0.3 -0.2 0.3 -0.5 -1.1 -0.7 -1.4 -3.0 -1.1 -1.0 -2.6 :
Italy 0.7 0.6 -0.4 -0.1 -1.2 -2.1 -0.6 -1.7 -1.4 -0.7 -1.2 :
Cyprus 0.6 0.7 -1.7 -2.1 -2.8 -0.7 -2.0 -0.3 0.0 -0.5 -0.4 :
Latvia -0.1 9.3 -0.5 4.9 2.4 1.3 1.3 0.2 -0.4 1.7 0.2 :
Lithuania -3.1 2.5 -0.7 4.0 4.3 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.8 :
Luxembourg 1.4 2.0 0.5 -0.3 0.3 3.9 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 :
Malta 0.9 0.6 0.8 -1.5 0.1 -0.5 -1.5 -1.1 -0.7 -0.1 0.3 :
Netherlands 0.8 -0.1 -0.2 -1.9 -1.0 -1.0 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 0.4 :
Austria -1.5 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 -1.0 -1.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -0.3 :
Portugal 1.0 -0.6 -1.8 -0.7 0.4 0.9 0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1 -0.2 :
Slovenia 3.9 1.4 -1.1 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 1.2 0.9 -0.5 0.4 :
Slovakia 2.4 0.8 -0.8 0.6 -0.5 2.5 0.4 0.9 1.4 0.1 1.0 :
Finland -1.0 0.9 0.6 -0.1 -2.9 -4.2 -1.0 0.1 0.2 -1.5 -0.9 :
Euro area -1.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 -1.8 -1.1 -1.0 -0.7 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 :
Bulgaria -1.1 4.3 3.4 1.4 -0.6 6.4 -1.5 0.1 -0.2 1.2 1.1 :
Czechia 2.1 -0.6 -0.1 -1.7 1.4 1.9 3.4 0.4 0.3 4.0 2.9 :
Denmark 0.3 1.3 -0.9 0.0 -0.8 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.6 -0.1 :
Croatia 0.2 1.2 -2.6 -1.6 -3.7 -3.2 -1.1 -0.1 0.1 -1.1 -1.2 :
Hungary 6.2 0.8 0.3 -3.4 3.3 2.2 3.5 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.3 :
Poland -1.3 -0.2 0.1 -1.5 0.7 0.6 -0.3 1.1 2.0 -0.7 1.3 :
Romania 20.9 6.7 0.7 -4.1 6.4 6.4 10.8 7.4 3.6 6.4 0.1 :
Sweden 0.1 0.3 0.1 -1.0 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 :
EU27 -0.4 0.2 -0.7 -1.6 -1.5 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -1.1 :
United Kingdom 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 :
EU -0.4 0.2 -0.8 -1.7 -1.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -1.1 :
Japan -4.9 -2.7 -2.6 -1.4 0.3 -2.1 -0.6 -1.5 -1.5 -0.6 -0.9 :
United States -0.2 -0.9 0.2 0.9 -0.1 0.6 -1.2 -0.8 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 :
¹ 37 countries: EU, TR, CH, NO, US, CA, JP, AU, MX and NZ.
Note: See note 6 on concepts and sources where countries using full time equivalents are listed.

189
European Economic Forecast, Spring 2019

Table 33: Real effective exchange rate, based on HICP/CPI relative to rest of a group ¹ of industrialised countries (USD) (% change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019

5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018

averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 0.6 0.7 -0.5 -3.3 2.9 1.6 2.4 -1.1 -0.4 2.4 0.1 :
Germany 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -4.4 1.7 1.1 2.7 -1.8 -0.8 2.7 -0.2 :
Estonia 1.3 3.0 0.3 0.2 1.6 1.4 4.6 -0.2 0.0 4.8 1.4 :
Ireland 3.3 1.0 -2.5 -7.0 1.0 0.3 1.3 -2.8 -0.7 1.3 -1.5 :
Greece : : : : : : : : : 2.4 -0.5 :
Spain 1.7 1.1 -0.8 -4.5 0.8 1.4 2.0 -1.8 -0.7 2.2 -0.3 :
France 0.6 0.1 -1.2 -4.7 1.4 0.6 2.6 -1.9 -0.8 2.7 -0.3 :
Italy 1.2 0.3 -0.9 -4.4 0.9 0.6 1.9 -2.3 -1.1 2.2 -0.6 :
Cyprus 1.2 0.6 -1.2 -6.5 -0.1 0.2 1.5 -2.5 -1.2 1.6 -0.6 :
Latvia -0.2 4.5 -1.4 0.7 1.3 -0.2 3.7 -0.1 -0.2 4.0 0.8 :
Lithuania 2.6 2.7 -0.7 0.5 2.0 0.1 4.1 -1.0 -0.5 4.3 0.1 :
Luxembourg 1.1 1.1 -0.1 -2.7 0.8 1.1 1.5 -0.7 -0.2 1.6 0.0 :
Malta 1.7 1.1 -1.2 -4.8 1.5 1.3 2.1 -1.6 -0.3 2.4 -0.1 :
Netherlands 1.5 0.0 -0.7 -3.4 1.3 0.6 1.5 -0.3 -0.6 1.6 0.5 :
Austria 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -2.4 1.7 1.0 2.1 -0.9 -0.2 2.2 0.0 :
Portugal 1.7 0.1 -0.9 -2.9 1.7 0.7 0.9 -1.5 -0.4 1.3 -0.4 :
Slovenia 0.3 0.5 -0.5 -2.1 0.5 -0.4 1.9 -0.7 0.0 2.1 0.4 :
Slovakia 7.3 6.5 -0.4 -2.3 0.6 -0.2 2.1 0.0 0.2 2.3 0.7 :
Finland 0.4 -0.1 -0.7 -3.1 1.3 -0.5 2.3 -1.7 -0.7 2.5 -0.4 :
Euro area 1.5 0.7 -2.1 -7.3 2.7 1.7 3.9 -2.8 -1.3 4.3 -0.3 :
Bulgaria 3.9 4.4 -1.0 -3.6 -0.3 0.7 3.7 -0.4 -0.7 4.0 0.4 :
Czechia 3.3 4.5 -1.5 -0.9 2.6 3.8 4.4 -0.1 0.0 4.7 -0.4 :
Denmark 0.8 0.7 -1.3 -3.4 1.1 0.5 1.1 -1.7 -0.6 1.3 -0.6 :
Croatia 1.1 1.4 -1.4 -1.5 1.2 0.4 2.6 -1.7 -1.1 2.8 -0.4 :
Hungary 5.2 0.7 -1.2 -2.4 0.8 1.7 -0.4 0.3 0.8 -0.4 -0.3 :
Poland 0.7 1.6 0.5 -2.6 -3.5 2.8 1.0 -1.4 0.5 1.1 -0.4 :
Romania 2.4 3.6 0.6 -2.6 -1.2 -1.7 2.4 -1.0 0.6 2.8 1.5 :
Sweden 0.0 -2.8 1.3 -5.5 0.9 -0.7 -3.9 -3.2 -0.7 -4.0 -1.5 :
EU27 1.8 -0.7 -1.7 -6.7 -0.9 0.0 5.6 -3.0 -1.3 6.1 -0.3 :
United Kingdom -0.6 -4.7 2.2 5.0 -10.5 -4.7 2.3 1.0 0.3 2.8 0.3 :
EU 1.9 -0.7 -1.8 -7.7 -0.6 0.7 5.1 -3.2 -1.3 5.8 -0.3 :
Japan -2.6 -0.9 -5.4 -6.1 13.2 -4.7 -0.7 -0.5 -1.9 -0.9 -0.8 :
United States -0.9 -1.2 -0.5 12.2 3.5 -1.0 -0.9 1.9 -0.4 -0.7 2.5 :
¹ 42 countries: EU, TR, CH, NO, US, CA, JP, AU, MX, NZ, CN, HK, KO, RU and BR.
Note: See note 6 on concepts and sources where countries using full time equivalents are listed.

Table 34: Total expenditure, general government (as a percentage of GDP, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 49.5 50.6 55.0 53.7 53.1 52.1 52.4 52.3 52.5 52.0 51.8 52.0
Germany 46.6 45.0 45.0 43.7 43.9 43.9 43.9 44.6 44.7 43.8 43.9 44.0
Estonia 35.4 37.5 38.7 39.6 39.5 39.3 39.5 39.9 39.9 39.4 39.4 39.4
Ireland 32.6 38.4 46.3 29.0 27.6 26.3 25.7 25.6 25.0 25.1 24.7 24.0
Greece 46.5 48.5 55.0 53.5 48.9 47.3 46.7 46.7 45.6 47.6 46.2 45.3
Spain 38.6 40.5 46.0 43.7 42.2 41.0 41.3 41.2 41.0 41.1 40.9 40.8
France 52.5 53.8 56.9 56.8 56.6 56.4 56.0 55.5 54.4 56.2 55.4 54.1
Italy 47.0 48.1 50.4 50.3 49.0 48.9 48.6 49.2 49.8 48.1 48.8 48.6
Cyprus 37.1 39.2 43.4 40.6 38.0 37.4 44.7 38.0 39.0 37.2 37.0 36.8
Latvia 35.0 37.3 39.9 38.2 37.0 37.8 38.5 37.8 37.4 37.7 37.3 37.1
Lithuania 35.8 37.3 38.2 34.9 34.1 33.1 34.0 34.4 34.9 34.3 34.9 35.0
Luxembourg 40.9 41.2 43.2 41.9 41.9 43.0 43.1 43.8 44.3 43.5 43.8 44.4
Malta 42.2 42.0 41.6 39.6 36.5 35.7 36.8 37.1 37.1 37.7 37.5 37.9
Netherlands 43.3 43.6 46.7 44.6 43.6 42.5 42.2 42.6 42.8 42.4 42.3 42.3
Austria 51.7 51.0 51.8 51.1 50.3 49.2 48.5 48.0 47.7 48.7 48.0 47.6
Portugal 44.4 46.4 50.4 48.2 44.8 45.7 44.0 44.2 43.9 44.0 43.9 43.7
Slovenia 46.0 44.7 51.4 47.7 45.3 43.2 42.4 42.5 42.1 42.2 41.8 41.1
Slovakia 43.9 39.2 41.4 45.1 41.5 40.2 40.6 40.4 40.2 39.9 39.3 38.7
Finland 48.5 49.5 56.2 57.0 55.9 54.2 53.1 52.8 52.6 52.9 52.1 51.4
Euro area 46.8 47.1 49.7 48.3 47.5 47.0 46.8 47.0 46.8 46.7 46.5 46.1
Bulgaria 39.7 37.0 37.1 40.5 35.1 35.0 34.8 37.0 36.7 36.1 37.7 37.6
Czechia 44.2 41.8 43.2 41.7 39.5 38.9 40.8 41.7 41.9 40.4 40.8 40.7
Denmark 53.1 51.5 56.4 54.5 52.7 51.2 51.4 51.1 51.5 51.9 52.1 51.2
Croatia : 46.5 48.0 48.3 47.3 45.3 46.4 46.7 46.1 44.9 44.1 43.8
Hungary 48.5 49.9 49.2 50.1 46.8 46.9 46.5 46.4 45.6 47.3 46.6 46.3
Poland 44.4 44.3 43.5 41.7 41.1 41.2 41.5 42.6 42.6 41.6 41.9 42.2
Romania 35.6 36.7 37.5 36.1 34.5 33.6 35.0 36.1 38.0 35.1 35.1 36.3
Sweden 53.2 51.1 51.1 49.8 49.8 49.4 49.9 49.8 49.5 49.1 48.9 48.8
EU27 : 47.1 49.4 48.0 47.2 46.7 46.5 46.7 46.5 46.4 46.3 45.9
United Kingdom 37.7 42.9 45.2 42.2 41.4 41.0 40.8 41.0 40.9 40.5 40.3 40.3
EU : 46.4 48.8 46.9 46.2 45.8 45.6 45.8 45.6 45.5 45.4 45.1
Japan : 36.5 40.4 39.3 39.3 38.8 39.1 39.0 39.1 39.0 38.8 38.9
United States 36.2 38.8 40.6 37.9 38.2 38.0 37.6 37.9 38.0 37.6 37.9 38.0

190
 Statistical Annex

Table 35: Total revenue, general government (as a percentage of GDP, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 49.1 48.8 51.2 51.4 50.7 51.3 51.7 51.0 51.0 51.0 50.7 50.6
Germany 43.8 43.3 44.0 44.5 44.8 45.0 45.6 45.6 45.5 45.3 45.1 45.0
Estonia 36.4 37.9 39.0 39.7 39.1 38.9 39.0 39.5 39.4 39.9 39.8 39.6
Ireland 33.9 35.2 33.7 27.0 26.9 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.3 25.0 24.6 24.2
Greece 40.0 39.7 45.5 47.9 49.4 48.1 47.8 47.2 45.5 48.3 46.8 46.0
Spain 38.2 38.5 37.5 38.5 37.7 37.9 38.9 38.9 38.9 38.4 38.8 38.8
France 49.8 50.1 51.9 53.2 53.0 53.6 53.5 52.4 52.3 53.6 52.7 52.4
Italy 43.9 44.7 47.0 47.7 46.5 46.5 46.4 46.7 46.3 46.2 45.9 45.5
Cyprus 33.6 38.3 37.4 39.3 38.3 39.1 39.9 41.0 41.8 40.0 40.1 39.7
Latvia 33.2 34.3 36.6 36.9 37.0 37.2 37.5 37.2 36.8 36.8 36.4 36.4
Lithuania 33.6 34.6 33.8 34.6 34.4 33.6 34.7 34.7 34.9 34.9 35.3 35.1
Luxembourg 43.6 42.9 43.7 43.3 43.7 44.4 45.5 45.2 45.4 44.8 45.0 45.2
Malta 36.1 39.1 39.1 38.5 37.4 39.2 38.8 38.2 38.0 39.0 38.6 38.6
Netherlands 42.0 42.6 43.0 42.6 43.6 43.7 43.6 44.0 43.6 43.4 43.4 43.3
Austria 49.5 48.3 49.0 50.1 48.7 48.4 48.6 48.4 47.9 48.3 48.0 47.8
Portugal 40.0 41.0 43.2 43.8 42.8 42.7 43.5 43.8 43.8 43.3 43.3 43.4
Slovenia 43.1 42.7 44.1 44.9 43.4 43.2 43.1 43.2 43.0 42.7 42.2 41.3
Slovakia 37.6 35.4 37.1 42.5 39.2 39.4 39.9 39.9 39.7 39.3 38.9 38.6
Finland 52.6 52.1 53.9 54.3 54.2 53.4 52.5 52.5 52.4 52.2 51.9 51.3
Euro area 44.5 44.5 45.8 46.2 46.0 46.1 46.3 46.1 45.8 46.0 45.7 45.5
Bulgaria 39.8 37.3 34.8 38.8 35.2 36.2 36.8 37.9 37.7 37.0 38.3 38.2
Czechia 39.2 39.1 40.4 41.1 40.2 40.5 41.7 41.9 41.7 41.8 41.5 41.3
Denmark 54.1 54.6 54.7 53.2 52.6 52.6 51.9 51.7 51.4 52.1 52.0 51.8
Croatia : 42.8 42.0 45.2 46.3 46.1 46.6 46.8 46.7 45.1 44.4 43.9
Hungary 42.6 43.9 45.7 48.2 45.1 44.7 44.2 44.6 44.0 44.9 44.7 44.5
Poland 39.6 40.3 38.8 39.0 38.9 39.7 41.2 41.0 41.2 40.7 41.0 41.2
Romania 33.1 32.7 33.6 35.4 31.8 30.9 32.0 32.5 33.3 31.8 31.8 31.7
Sweden 53.7 52.8 50.2 49.8 50.8 50.9 50.8 50.2 49.9 50.2 49.9 49.6
EU27 : 44.6 45.6 46.0 45.7 45.8 46.0 45.8 45.6 45.8 45.5 45.3
United Kingdom 36.4 38.2 38.1 38.0 38.5 39.1 39.3 39.4 39.7 39.2 39.3 39.3
EU : 43.6 44.5 44.6 44.6 44.8 45.0 44.8 44.7 44.8 44.6 44.4
Japan : 31.7 32.5 35.8 35.8 35.9 36.1 36.2 36.6 35.7 35.7 36.1
United States 32.3 32.4 31.8 33.3 32.9 33.8 31.3 31.4 31.6 31.8 32.0 32.0

Table 36: Net lending (+) or net borrowing (-), general government (as a percentage of GDP, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium -0.4 -1.8 -3.7 -2.4 -2.4 -0.8 -0.7 -1.3 -1.5 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3
Germany -2.8 -1.7 -1.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.8 1.6 1.2 1.1
Estonia 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2
Ireland 1.4 -3.2 -12.6 -1.9 -0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.2
Greece -6.4 -8.8 -9.4 -5.6 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.5 -0.1 0.6 0.6 0.6
Spain -0.5 -2.0 -8.5 -5.3 -4.5 -3.1 -2.5 -2.3 -2.0 -2.7 -2.1 -1.9
France -2.7 -3.8 -5.0 -3.6 -3.5 -2.8 -2.5 -3.1 -2.2 -2.6 -2.8 -1.7
Italy -3.1 -3.4 -3.4 -2.6 -2.5 -2.4 -2.1 -2.5 -3.5 -1.9 -2.9 -3.1
Cyprus -3.6 -0.9 -6.0 -1.3 0.3 1.8 -4.8 3.0 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.9
Latvia -1.9 -3.0 -3.4 -1.4 0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -0.6 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -0.7
Lithuania -2.2 -2.7 -4.4 -0.3 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.1
Luxembourg 2.6 1.8 0.5 1.4 1.9 1.4 2.4 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.9
Malta -6.1 -2.9 -2.5 -1.0 0.9 3.4 2.0 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.2 0.7
Netherlands -1.3 -1.1 -3.7 -2.0 0.0 1.2 1.5 1.4 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0
Austria -2.2 -2.6 -2.8 -1.0 -1.6 -0.8 0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.1
Portugal -4.4 -5.4 -7.2 -4.4 -2.0 -3.0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.2
Slovenia -2.9 -2.0 -7.3 -2.8 -1.9 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.2
Slovakia -6.3 -3.7 -4.3 -2.6 -2.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1
Finland 4.1 2.7 -2.3 -2.8 -1.7 -0.8 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 -0.8 -0.2 -0.1
Euro area -2.3 -2.6 -3.9 -2.0 -1.6 -1.0 -0.5 -0.9 -0.9 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7
Bulgaria 0.2 0.3 -2.3 -1.7 0.1 1.2 2.0 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6
Czechia -4.9 -2.6 -2.8 -0.6 0.7 1.6 0.9 0.2 -0.2 1.4 0.8 0.7
Denmark 1.0 3.1 -1.7 -1.3 -0.1 1.4 0.5 0.6 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.6
Croatia : -3.7 -6.0 -3.2 -1.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.1
Hungary -5.9 -6.1 -3.5 -1.9 -1.6 -2.2 -2.2 -1.8 -1.6 -2.4 -1.9 -1.8
Poland -4.7 -4.0 -4.7 -2.7 -2.2 -1.5 -0.4 -1.6 -1.4 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0
Romania -2.5 -4.0 -3.9 -0.7 -2.7 -2.7 -3.0 -3.5 -4.7 -3.3 -3.4 -4.7
Sweden 0.5 1.7 -0.8 0.0 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.4 1.1 0.9 0.8
EU27 : -2.5 -3.8 -1.9 -1.4 -0.8 -0.5 -0.9 -0.9 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6
United Kingdom -1.3 -4.8 -7.1 -4.2 -2.9 -1.9 -1.5 -1.5 -1.2 -1.3 -1.0 -1.0
EU : -2.8 -4.3 -2.3 -1.7 -1.0 -0.6 -1.0 -1.0 -0.7 -0.8 -0.7
Japan : -4.8 -7.9 -3.6 -3.5 -3.0 -2.9 -2.8 -2.5 -3.3 -3.1 -2.8
United States -3.8 -6.5 -8.7 -4.6 -5.3 -4.1 -6.4 -6.5 -6.4 -5.8 -6.0 -6.0

191
European Economic Forecast, Spring 2019

Table 37: Interest expenditure, general government (as a percentage of GDP, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 5.8 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.1
Germany 3.0 2.7 2.2 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8
Estonia 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ireland 1.4 1.3 3.7 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.3
Greece 5.7 4.7 5.2 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.2 3.5 3.4
Spain 2.6 1.6 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.2
France 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.8
Italy 5.4 4.6 4.7 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9
Cyprus 3.1 2.8 2.8 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.7 2.4 2.2
Latvia 0.8 0.7 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7
Lithuania 1.3 0.8 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7
Luxembourg 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Malta 3.8 3.5 3.0 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.3
Netherlands 2.7 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7
Austria 3.4 3.1 2.7 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.4
Portugal 2.8 2.9 4.4 4.6 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.5 3.3 3.2
Slovenia 2.1 1.3 2.3 3.2 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.5 2.0 1.7 1.6
Slovakia 3.2 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1
Finland 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8
Euro area 3.4 2.9 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8
Bulgaria 2.9 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6
Czechia 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8
Denmark 3.1 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9
Croatia : 2.0 3.0 3.5 3.1 2.7 2.3 2.1 1.8 2.4 2.3 2.2
Hungary 4.5 4.1 4.3 3.5 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.4
Poland 2.9 2.3 2.4 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4
Romania 2.6 1.0 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5
Sweden 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3
EU27 : 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.7
United Kingdom 2.0 2.0 2.9 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.3
EU : 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8
Japan 2.4 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7
United States 4.1 4.0 4.2 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.9 4.1

Table 38: Primary balance, general government ¹ (as a percentage of GDP, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 5.5 2.3 -0.3 0.6 0.4 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.5 1.4 1.2 0.8
Germany 0.1 1.0 1.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.6 1.8 1.6 2.5 2.0 1.9
Estonia 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2
Ireland 2.8 -2.0 -8.8 0.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.6
Greece -0.8 -4.1 -4.2 -2.1 3.6 3.9 4.4 4.0 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.0
Spain 2.1 -0.4 -5.6 -2.2 -1.7 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.2
France 0.2 -1.1 -2.5 -1.6 -1.7 -1.0 -0.8 -1.5 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 0.1
Italy 2.3 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.2 1.7 1.0 0.8
Cyprus -0.5 1.9 -3.2 1.9 3.1 4.3 -2.3 5.4 4.9 5.5 5.5 5.2
Latvia -1.1 -2.3 -1.7 0.0 1.1 0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0
Lithuania -0.9 -1.9 -2.6 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.7 1.5 1.2 0.8
Luxembourg 2.9 2.1 1.0 1.8 2.2 1.8 2.7 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.2
Malta -2.3 0.6 0.5 1.3 3.0 5.2 3.6 2.5 2.2 2.9 2.6 2.0
Netherlands 1.4 1.0 -2.1 -0.7 1.2 2.2 2.4 2.2 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.6
Austria 1.2 0.5 -0.1 1.3 0.5 1.1 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.6
Portugal -1.6 -2.6 -2.9 0.2 2.2 0.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.0
Slovenia -0.8 -0.7 -5.0 0.4 1.1 2.5 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.8
Slovakia -3.1 -2.3 -2.6 -0.8 -0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
Finland 6.3 4.1 -1.0 -1.6 -0.6 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.6 0.7
Euro area 1.2 0.2 -1.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.1
Bulgaria 3.1 1.4 -1.5 -0.7 1.0 2.0 2.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2
Czechia -4.0 -1.6 -1.5 0.5 1.6 2.3 1.7 1.0 0.6 2.1 1.5 1.4
Denmark 4.1 4.8 0.1 0.2 1.3 2.5 1.6 1.6 1.0 1.2 0.8 1.5
Croatia : -1.7 -3.0 0.3 2.1 3.5 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.2
Hungary -1.5 -2.0 0.8 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.6
Poland -1.8 -1.7 -2.3 -0.9 -0.5 0.0 1.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.6 0.6 0.4
Romania 0.1 -3.0 -2.2 0.9 -1.2 -1.4 -1.8 -2.3 -3.4 -1.9 -1.9 -3.2
Sweden 3.0 3.3 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.9 1.4 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.2
EU27 1.1 0.3 -1.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.9 1.0
United Kingdom 0.7 -2.7 -4.2 -1.9 -0.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4
EU 1.1 -0.2 -1.6 -0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.1
Japan 2.4 -3.0 -5.9 -1.7 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -0.8 -1.5 -1.4 -1.0
United States 0.3 -2.4 -4.6 -0.9 -1.4 -0.3 -2.4 -2.5 -2.4 -2.1 -2.1 -1.9
¹ Net lending/borrowing excluding interest expenditure.

192
 Statistical Annex

Table 39: Cyclically-adjusted net lending (+) or net borrowing (-), general government¹ (as a percentage of potential GDP, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019

5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018

averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium -0.5 -2.3 -3.4 -2.2 -2.3 -1.0 -0.8 -1.4 -1.6 -1.1 -1.2 -1.6
Germany -2.9 -1.4 -0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.1
Estonia 0.2 -2.2 0.8 -0.1 -0.9 -1.7 -2.2 -1.7 -1.5 -0.8 -0.7 -0.9
Ireland 0.3 -2.9 -11.8 -3.7 -1.9 -0.9 -1.4 -1.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3
Greece -7.4 -10.3 -3.0 0.7 6.3 5.4 4.4 2.6 0.9 3.6 2.5 1.5
Spain -2.2 -2.7 -4.4 -2.5 -3.1 -2.8 -3.0 -3.3 -3.2 -3.2 -3.1 -3.1
France -3.6 -4.5 -4.3 -2.9 -2.9 -2.8 -2.8 -3.4 -2.6 -2.7 -3.1 -2.2
Italy -3.9 -3.8 -1.7 -0.8 -1.5 -2.1 -2.1 -2.3 -3.4 -1.8 -3.0 -3.5
Cyprus -4.6 -3.0 -3.7 1.3 1.1 1.3 -6.2 1.1 0.7 1.7 1.2 0.7
Latvia -1.7 -4.3 -1.7 -1.5 0.0 -1.2 -2.1 -1.4 -1.1 -1.8 -1.7 -1.2
Lithuania -1.4 -3.6 -3.0 -0.5 -0.2 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4
Luxembourg 1.6 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.8 1.5 2.1 0.9 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.8
Malta -6.4 -3.1 -1.7 -2.5 0.2 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9
Netherlands -1.1 -1.0 -2.3 -0.9 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Austria -2.2 -2.8 -2.4 -0.3 -1.1 -0.8 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 -0.8 -0.4 -0.2
Portugal -4.7 -5.3 -5.9 : -3.4 -1.6 -3.3 -1.1 -1.1 -0.8 -1.4 -1.3 -1.0
Slovenia -3.2 -3.4 -5.2 -1.3 -1.2 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.4 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0
Slovakia -5.2 -4.6 -3.4 -2.1 -2.1 -0.9 -1.3 -1.3 -1.4 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6
Finland 3.9 2.2 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.9 -0.5 -0.7
Euro area -2.9 -2.9 -2.7 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -0.8 -1.1 -1.2 -0.8 -1.2 -1.1
Bulgaria 0.7 -0.3 -2.0 -1.2 0.3 1.1 1.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.3
Czechia -5.0 -3.8 -2.1 -0.6 0.8 1.0 0.4 -0.1 -0.4 0.9 0.2 0.2
Denmark 0.5 2.3 0.0 -0.5 0.3 1.5 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.8
Croatia : -5.3 -4.4 -1.7 -0.4 0.6 -0.3 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -1.1
Hungary -6.0 -6.5 -2.1 -2.1 -1.9 -3.0 -3.7 -3.3 -2.7 -3.8 -3.3 -3.0
Poland -3.1 -4.2 -4.7 -2.3 -1.9 -1.9 -1.4 -2.8 -2.4 -2.0 -2.0 -1.8
Romania -2.4 -5.9 -2.5 0.2 -2.1 -2.9 -3.3 -3.7 -4.8 -3.5 -3.4 -4.6
Sweden 0.5 1.6 0.1 -0.1 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0
EU27 : -2.8 -2.6 -1.0 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -1.1 -1.2 -0.8 -1.1 -1.1
United Kingdom -1.6 -4.7 -5.7 -4.4 -3.3 -2.4 -2.0 -1.8 -1.4 -1.8 -1.3 -1.1
EU : -3.1 -3.1 -1.6 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.2 -1.2 -1.0 -1.2 -1.1
¹ Cyclically-adjusted variables for Croatia are based on provisional values for fiscal semi-elasticities and subject to further revisions

Table 40: Cyclically-adjusted primary balance, general government¹ (as a percentage of potential GDP, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 5.3 1.7 0.1 0.8 0.5 1.5 1.4 0.7 0.4 1.3 1.0 0.5
Germany 0.1 1.3 1.4 2.2 1.9 1.6 2.3 2.0 1.7 2.2 1.8 1.9
Estonia 0.5 -2.0 0.9 0.0 -0.8 -1.6 -2.1 -1.7 -1.5 -0.8 -0.6 -0.8
Ireland 1.7 -1.6 -8.1 -1.1 0.3 1.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 0.9 1.0
Greece -1.7 -5.6 2.2 4.2 9.4 8.5 7.8 6.1 4.6 6.8 6.0 4.9
Spain 0.4 -1.1 -1.5 0.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -1.0 -1.1 -0.8 -0.8 -1.0
France -0.7 -1.8 -1.8 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.8 -1.0 -0.8 -1.2 -0.4
Italy 1.6 0.8 3.0 3.3 2.5 1.7 1.6 1.3 0.3 1.9 0.8 0.4
Cyprus -1.5 -0.3 -0.9 4.5 3.8 3.9 -3.7 3.5 2.7 4.3 3.6 2.9
Latvia -0.9 -3.6 -0.1 -0.2 1.0 -0.3 -1.4 -0.8 -0.4 -1.0 -1.0 -0.5
Lithuania 0.0 -2.8 -1.2 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3
Luxembourg 1.9 2.3 2.5 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.5 1.2 0.8 1.7 1.4 1.1
Malta -2.6 0.4 1.3 -0.2 2.3 4.7 2.9 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.2
Netherlands 1.5 1.1 -0.7 0.4 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.6 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.6
Austria 1.2 0.3 0.3 2.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.4 0.8 1.0 1.3
Portugal -1.9 -2.4 -1.5 : 1.1 2.6 0.5 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.3
Slovenia -1.1 -2.1 -2.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.2 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.6
Slovakia -2.0 -3.2 -1.8 -0.4 -0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5
Finland 6.1 3.7 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2
Euro area 0.6 -0.1 0.1 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.7
Bulgaria 3.7 0.9 -1.2 -0.3 1.2 1.9 2.6 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.9
Czechia -4.0 -2.8 -0.8 0.4 1.7 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.4 1.7 1.0 1.0
Denmark 3.6 4.1 1.7 1.1 1.7 2.6 1.9 2.0 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.7
Croatia : -3.3 -1.4 1.8 2.6 3.3 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.9 1.6 1.0
Hungary -1.6 -2.4 2.1 1.5 1.3 -0.3 -1.2 -0.9 -0.4 -1.3 -0.9 -0.6
Poland -0.1 -1.9 -2.3 -0.6 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 -1.4 -1.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4
Romania 0.2 -5.0 -0.8 1.8 -0.6 -1.7 -2.1 -2.5 -3.5 -2.0 -2.0 -3.1
Sweden 3.0 3.1 1.0 0.5 1.2 1.7 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3
EU27 0.7 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.6
United Kingdom 0.4 -2.7 -2.8 -2.1 -0.8 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.2
EU 0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.7
¹ Cyclically-adjusted variables for Croatia are based on provisional values for fiscal semi-elasticities and subject to further revisions

193
European Economic Forecast, Spring 2019

Table 41: Structural budget balance, general government¹ (as a percentage of potential GDP, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium : : -3.5 -2.3 -2.3 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.8 -1.3 -1.3 -1.7
Germany : : -0.4 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.8 1.4 1.0 1.1
Estonia : : 0.1 0.2 -0.8 -1.7 -2.2 -1.7 -1.5 -0.8 -0.7 -0.9
Ireland : : -6.8 -2.9 -2.1 -0.9 -1.4 -1.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3
Greece : : -1.1 3.3 5.6 5.1 5.0 1.9 0.8 4.0 2.3 1.5
Spain : : -3.5 -2.2 -3.1 -2.7 -2.7 -2.9 -3.2 -3.1 -3.1 -3.1
France : : -4.3 -2.8 -2.8 -2.7 -2.6 -2.6 -2.5 -2.5 -2.3 -2.2
Italy : : -1.9 -0.7 -1.7 -2.1 -2.2 -2.4 -3.6 -1.8 -3.0 -3.5
Cyprus : : -2.0 2.1 1.1 1.3 2.0 1.1 0.7 1.7 1.2 0.7
Latvia : : -1.3 -1.5 -0.2 -1.2 -2.1 -1.6 -1.1 -1.8 -1.7 -1.2
Lithuania : : -2.3 -0.6 -0.4 -0.8 -0.8 -1.0 -0.9 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4
Luxembourg : : 2.0 1.3 1.7 1.5 2.1 0.9 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.8
Malta : : -2.2 -2.6 0.3 3.1 1.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9
Netherlands : : -2.4 -0.9 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.3 -0.3 -0.1
Austria : : -1.8 0.0 -1.1 -0.8 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 -0.8 -0.4 -0.2
Portugal : : -4.6 : -2.2 -2.0 -1.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0
Slovenia : : -2.6 -1.3 -1.1 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -0.3 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0
Slovakia : : -3.5 -2.1 -2.0 -0.9 -1.3 -1.3 -1.4 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6
Finland : : -1.0 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -1.0 -1.0 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 -0.7
Euro area : : -2.4 -0.9 -1.1 -0.9 -0.7 -0.9 -1.2 -0.7 -1.0 -1.1
Bulgaria : : -1.3 -1.1 0.3 1.1 1.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.3
Czechia : : -1.7 -0.6 0.8 1.0 0.4 -0.1 -0.4 0.9 0.2 0.2
Denmark : : -0.6 -1.8 0.3 1.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.8
Croatia : : -4.4 -1.7 -0.6 0.6 -0.3 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -1.1
Hungary : : -2.4 -2.0 -1.8 -3.4 -3.7 -3.3 -2.7 -3.8 -3.3 -3.0
Poland : : -4.7 -2.3 -1.9 -1.9 -1.4 -2.8 -3.0 -2.0 -2.0 -1.8
Romania : : -2.4 -0.1 -1.7 -2.9 -3.0 -3.6 -4.8 -3.3 -3.4 -4.6
Sweden : : 0.1 -0.1 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0
EU27 : : -2.3 -0.9 -1.0 -0.9 -0.7 -1.0 -1.2 -0.7 -1.0 -1.1
United Kingdom : : -5.7 -4.4 -3.2 -2.4 -2.0 -1.8 -1.4 -1.8 -1.3 -1.1
EU : : -2.8 -1.6 -1.4 -1.1 -0.9 -1.1 -1.3 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1
¹ Cyclically-adjusted variables for Croatia are based on provisional values for fiscal semi-elasticities and subject to further revisions

Table 42: Gross debt, general government (as a percentage of GDP, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 103.7 93.0 103.9 106.4 106.1 103.4 102.0 101.3 100.7 101.4 99.8 98.7
Germany 60.8 67.0 79.1 71.6 68.5 64.5 60.9 58.4 55.6 60.1 56.7 53.7
Estonia 5.3 4.8 8.6 9.9 9.2 9.2 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.0 7.6 7.5
Ireland 31.6 35.5 108.1 76.8 73.5 68.5 64.8 61.3 55.9 63.9 61.1 56.0
Greece 104.2 110.1 166.8 175.9 178.5 176.2 181.1 174.9 168.9 182.5 174.9 167.4
Spain 51.3 41.8 82.2 99.3 99.0 98.1 97.1 96.3 95.7 96.9 96.2 95.4
France 61.6 69.7 90.4 95.6 98.0 98.4 98.4 99.0 98.9 98.7 98.5 97.2
Italy 102.5 103.8 123.2 131.6 131.4 131.4 132.2 133.7 135.2 131.1 131.0 131.1
Cyprus 60.4 55.3 82.8 108.0 105.5 95.8 102.5 96.4 89.9 105.0 98.4 91.0
Latvia 13.3 16.7 42.5 36.8 40.3 40.0 35.9 34.5 33.5 37.1 35.5 35.7
Lithuania 21.5 18.7 38.5 42.6 40.0 39.4 34.2 37.0 36.4 34.8 37.9 37.6
Luxembourg 7.2 10.7 21.4 22.2 20.7 23.0 21.4 20.7 20.3 21.4 20.8 20.6
Malta 66.1 65.4 67.4 57.9 55.5 50.2 46.0 42.8 40.2 47.9 44.8 42.1
Netherlands 50.1 49.9 64.5 64.6 61.9 57.0 52.4 49.1 46.7 53.2 49.6 46.9
Austria 66.1 69.9 82.5 84.7 83.0 78.2 73.8 69.7 66.8 74.5 71.0 67.8
Portugal 56.1 72.1 118.7 : 128.8 129.2 124.8 121.5 119.5 116.6 121.5 119.2 116.8
Slovenia 26.5 26.3 57.9 82.6 78.7 74.1 70.1 65.9 61.7 70.2 66.3 62.6
Slovakia 44.6 32.0 49.1 52.2 51.8 50.9 48.9 47.3 46.0 48.8 46.4 44.2
Finland 41.8 37.3 53.2 63.4 63.0 61.3 58.9 58.3 57.7 59.8 58.5 57.5
Euro area 67.8 69.9 90.6 92.3 91.4 89.1 87.1 85.8 84.3 86.9 84.9 82.8
Bulgaria 53.5 18.2 18.3 26.2 29.6 25.6 22.6 20.5 18.4 23.3 21.3 19.5
Czechia 24.5 29.0 41.7 40.0 36.8 34.7 32.7 31.7 31.1 33.2 32.1 31.2
Denmark 48.0 34.0 44.4 39.8 37.2 35.5 34.1 33.0 32.5 33.3 32.2 30.5
Croatia 37.4 40.9 71.0 83.7 80.5 77.8 74.6 70.9 67.6 73.5 70.1 68.2
Hungary 55.8 68.0 78.6 76.7 76.0 73.4 70.8 69.2 67.7 72.9 70.3 68.6
Poland 41.4 46.7 53.4 51.3 54.2 50.6 48.9 48.2 47.4 49.2 48.3 47.4
Romania 22.8 14.9 35.6 37.8 37.3 35.2 35.0 36.0 38.4 35.1 35.9 38.2
Sweden 50.3 42.3 40.1 44.2 42.4 40.8 38.8 34.4 32.4 37.8 35.5 33.5
EU27 65.2 66.1 84.6 86.0 85.1 82.8 80.8 79.3 77.8 80.6 78.6 76.7
United Kingdom 36.0 47.1 82.5 87.9 87.9 87.1 86.8 85.1 84.2 86.0 84.5 82.6
EU 59.9 62.6 84.5 86.2 85.0 83.3 81.5 80.2 78.8 81.4 79.5 77.6

194
 Statistical Annex

Table 43: Gross national saving (as a percentage of GDP, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 26.9 26.5 24.4 22.9 23.7 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.9 25.9 25.9
Germany 22.1 25.4 26.5 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.8 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2
Estonia 23.1 23.9 26.4 26.6 26.1 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.4 29.1 29.0 29.1
Ireland 24.2 21.3 18.4 30.2 34.7 34.1 34.9 34.7 34.6 34.8 35.1 35.4
Greece 16.4 10.5 7.7 9.9 10.3 11.4 11.7 13.0 14.3 11.9 13.4 15.1
Spain 23.0 21.4 19.7 21.5 22.6 23.0 22.9 23.2 23.5 23.1 23.3 23.8
France 23.2 22.8 21.5 22.3 21.9 22.8 22.9 23.3 23.4 22.9 23.0 23.3
Italy 20.6 19.6 17.8 18.6 20.0 20.1 20.4 20.3 20.3 20.6 20.8 21.1
Cyprus 16.9 14.5 10.7 12.8 11.6 12.2 12.6 12.4 12.2 12.7 12.5 12.8
Latvia 20.3 22.6 21.8 21.8 22.3 22.9 23.2 23.7 23.2 23.4 23.2 23.1
Lithuania 14.6 16.0 19.6 18.6 17.0 18.7 18.6 18.6 18.5 17.9 18.3 18.8
Luxembourg 27.4 23.7 19.8 21.1 21.8 23.8 23.1 22.7 22.6 23.1 22.6 22.1
Malta 15.7 15.0 19.0 27.6 27.7 29.5 29.6 29.3 29.9 32.0 31.8 31.5
Netherlands 27.1 27.1 28.2 28.8 28.5 31.2 32.2 31.4 30.9 31.2 30.8 30.4
Austria 25.4 26.8 25.8 25.7 26.9 27.4 28.0 28.1 28.2 27.6 27.9 28.2
Portugal 16.9 12.1 13.6 14.9 15.9 17.1 16.7 17.1 17.6 17.3 17.5 18.0
Slovenia 25.0 26.5 22.2 23.8 24.2 27.3 29.1 29.5 29.7 28.6 29.1 29.7
Slovakia 22.5 20.9 21.1 22.3 21.8 22.3 22.9 23.0 23.1 23.4 24.1 24.6
Finland 29.7 27.4 21.0 20.2 21.3 22.1 22.5 22.8 23.0 23.2 23.4 23.7
Euro area 22.7 22.8 22.3 23.7 24.2 24.8 25.2 25.1 25.2 25.1 25.1 25.4
Bulgaria 16.4 15.3 22.2 21.8 24.5 26.3 23.2 22.8 22.9 26.7 25.7 26.4
Czechia 26.1 25.8 23.3 26.4 26.1 26.2 26.2 25.7 25.4 25.0 24.8 25.0
Denmark 24.5 26.0 26.5 28.9 29.4 29.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.5
Croatia 21.1 22.3 20.1 24.6 23.3 25.0 24.3 24.6 24.4 23.5 23.4 23.6
Hungary 18.8 17.9 22.6 25.3 26.2 25.7 27.5 27.7 27.4 26.0 26.7 26.6
Poland 16.9 17.6 17.9 20.7 19.6 20.0 20.1 19.8 19.4 19.8 19.8 19.7
Romania 17.1 18.5 23.2 24.0 21.3 20.0 19.4 18.8 18.7 21.5 21.3 21.5
Sweden 27.9 30.8 28.5 28.6 28.3 29.3 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.6 29.5 29.3
EU27 22.8 22.9 22.5 23.9 24.3 24.9 25.2 25.1 25.2 25.1 25.1 25.3
United Kingdom 15.7 13.8 12.4 12.3 12.0 13.8 13.3 13.1 13.1 13.6 13.7 13.8
EU 21.5 21.5 20.9 21.9 22.4 23.2 23.4 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.4 23.6
Japan 28.3 27.5 24.4 27.1 27.4 28.2 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.7
United States 18.8 16.8 18.0 20.1 18.6 18.9 19.0 18.5 18.4 18.6 18.6 18.5

Table 44: Gross saving, private sector (as a percentage of GDP, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 24.6 25.2 24.6 22.6 23.7 24.0 23.7 24.4 24.5 24.4 24.6 24.9
Germany 22.1 24.0 24.3 24.7 24.7 24.1 24.0 24.2 24.4 23.6 23.9 24.0
Estonia 17.3 18.1 21.9 21.7 21.8 24.0 24.0 23.6 24.1 23.6 23.9 24.6
Ireland 19.3 20.0 23.1 29.3 33.3 32.3 32.6 32.2 31.8 32.6 32.6 32.7
Greece 17.0 15.4 12.2 10.2 7.8 8.6 8.2 10.5 12.2 9.2 10.6 12.1
Spain 18.8 18.0 23.6 24.1 24.8 23.9 23.0 23.3 23.5 23.4 23.4 23.6
France 21.4 21.7 21.5 21.6 21.2 21.1 21.2 22.2 21.4 21.4 21.7 20.9
Italy 20.0 18.6 17.7 17.6 19.6 19.0 19.4 19.9 20.6 19.5 20.5 21.2
Cyprus 16.7 11.9 11.4 10.6 8.4 7.6 7.4 7.7 7.6 6.9 6.3 6.8
Latvia 18.5 21.0 21.1 19.9 19.3 19.2 19.8 20.3 19.9 20.4 20.6 20.2
Lithuania 12.9 14.7 20.8 16.3 14.0 15.3 15.3 16.0 15.9 14.5 15.1 15.8
Luxembourg 19.6 16.8 14.4 15.2 15.0 17.5 15.7 16.1 16.2 16.9 16.6 16.4
Malta 17.6 15.9 19.6 26.4 24.2 23.8 24.4 24.8 25.7 27.8 27.9 27.8
Netherlands 24.1 24.2 27.7 27.2 24.9 26.6 27.1 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.0 25.8
Austria 23.0 25.2 24.2 22.6 24.9 24.4 24.4 24.3 24.4 24.1 24.2 24.4
Portugal 17.3 14.2 17.3 15.9 16.5 16.1 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.6 15.8 15.9
Slovenia 23.1 23.6 22.7 22.6 22.9 24.0 24.8 24.9 24.9 24.8 25.7 26.0
Slovakia 22.2 20.4 22.4 20.1 20.8 20.0 20.5 20.4 20.7 20.7 21.3 21.7
Finland 21.9 21.2 19.4 19.0 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.2 20.1 19.9 20.0
Euro area 21.2 21.3 22.2 22.3 22.7 22.4 22.4 22.8 22.9 22.4 22.8 22.8
Bulgaria 12.3 10.5 21.0 20.5 21.1 23.0 19.1 19.0 18.7 23.0 22.1 22.6
Czechia 22.8 22.2 21.6 23.0 22.0 21.2 21.3 21.3 21.6 19.8 20.1 20.5
Denmark 20.9 20.0 23.8 25.4 25.3 24.7 24.5 24.7 24.7 24.8 24.6 24.6
Croatia : 18.8 20.9 23.6 19.9 20.7 19.4 19.9 19.6 19.6 19.7 19.9
Hungary 18.5 19.2 22.5 21.7 22.9 22.4 23.4 22.8 22.6 21.9 22.0 21.4
Poland 18.4 17.0 18.4 19.5 18.6 17.6 16.6 17.3 17.2 16.4 16.1 15.9
Romania 15.0 16.6 22.3 21.1 20.2 20.7 19.4 19.3 20.0 22.8 22.9 24.2
Sweden 23.4 24.9 24.9 24.3 22.9 23.4 24.0 24.6 24.7 23.9 23.7 23.6
EU27 : 21.2 22.2 22.4 22.6 22.3 22.2 22.6 22.7 22.3 22.5 22.6
United Kingdom 14.5 15.0 16.0 13.4 12.0 12.6 11.7 11.4 11.1 11.9 11.7 11.5
EU : 20.2 21.2 20.8 20.9 20.8 20.6 20.9 20.9 20.7 20.9 20.9
Japan 28.9 28.1 27.8 27.3 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.7 27.6 28.9 29.0 29.1
United States 19.0 19.1 23.0 21.7 20.8 21.2 22.1 21.7 21.6 21.1 21.3 21.3

195
European Economic Forecast, Spring 2019

Table 45: Saving rate of households (2000-2020) 24.4.2019

5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 16.2 16.0 13.3 11.8 11.3 11.5 12.0 12.6 12.5 11.7 11.0 10.7
Germany 15.8 16.6 16.6 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.9 18.6 18.5 17.2 17.2 17.2
Estonia 1.3 2.9 9.9 10.9 10.5 11.6 11.3 11.0 11.7 10.8 10.8 11.6
Ireland 6.2 9.5 9.8 8.5 8.2 10.8 11.8 11.8 11.6 8.4 8.3 8.2
Greece : : : : : : : : : : : :
Spain 10.8 8.9 9.7 8.7 7.8 5.5 4.9 5.5 5.8 4.5 5.1 5.2
France 14.1 14.5 14.9 13.8 13.6 13.9 13.7 14.1 13.8 14.2 14.0 13.9
Italy 14.3 14.1 10.7 10.6 10.5 9.7 9.9 10.0 9.9 9.7 10.0 9.9
Cyprus 6.4 8.7 1.7 -4.5 -3.1 -3.1 -6.4 -8.0 -8.0 -7.2 -8.3 -8.7
Latvia 0.8 5.5 -1.4 1.7 5.2 3.3 5.0 6.3 7.3 5.4 6.0 6.8
Lithuania 4.9 1.9 3.3 0.4 0.2 -1.5 -1.2 -0.5 -0.9 -2.9 -1.9 -2.3
Luxembourg : : : : : : : : : : : :
Malta : : : : : : : : : : : :
Netherlands 10.8 10.7 14.8 15.9 16.3 15.4 15.4 15.0 14.9 14.9 14.7 14.6
Austria 14.8 16.7 13.5 12.4 13.2 12.4 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.1 12.0 12.0
Portugal 10.5 8.3 7.5 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.6
Slovenia 13.4 15.5 12.1 12.4 13.0 13.9 15.1 15.3 14.4 13.7 13.7 13.0
Slovakia 8.4 6.6 6.6 8.7 8.7 8.2 8.4 7.6 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.3
Finland 9.3 7.8 8.3 6.9 6.1 6.0 7.3 10.7 12.0 6.3 6.5 6.5
Euro area 13.4 13.0 12.6 12.4 12.3 11.8 12.1 12.5 12.5 11.9 11.9 11.9
Bulgaria : : : : : : : : : : : :
Czechia 11.0 12.1 11.5 12.0 11.6 9.5 10.9 10.9 10.6 9.9 10.7 10.8
Denmark 6.9 5.3 7.2 10.0 10.5 11.8 12.6 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.3 12.3
Croatia : : : : : : : : : : : :
Hungary 10.7 11.0 11.9 11.2 12.8 12.1 14.1 13.1 12.9 10.4 10.2 10.0
Poland 11.0 4.9 2.6 2.3 4.2 1.9 0.7 1.7 2.0 0.9 0.7 0.9
Romania -4.5 -13.3 -9.0 -10.8 -9.1 -8.7 -6.0 -3.1 -0.4 -0.5 -2.2 -1.4
Sweden 9.6 11.9 16.6 17.6 18.5 17.6 19.5 20.5 20.5 17.9 17.2 16.6
EU27 13.3 12.8 12.5 12.2 12.3 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.5 11.8 11.8 11.7
United Kingdom 8.7 8.4 9.3 9.4 6.7 4.2 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.5 4.7
EU 12.0 11.3 11.3 10.8 10.6 9.6 9.8 10.1 10.0 9.7 9.8 9.8
Japan 12.6 10.2 8.9 7.9 9.3 9.0 9.3 9.6 10.2 10.9 11.0 11.9
United States 10.6 10.3 12.7 13.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.6 11.5 11.8 11.5

Table 46: Gross saving, general government (as a percentage of GDP, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 2.4 1.3 -0.3 0.3 0.0 1.4 1.8 1.1 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.1
Germany 0.1 1.4 2.2 3.4 3.7 4.2 4.8 4.1 4.0 4.8 4.3 4.2
Estonia 5.8 5.8 4.5 4.9 4.2 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.3 5.4 5.1 4.6
Ireland 4.9 1.3 -4.7 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.8 2.2 2.4 2.7
Greece -0.6 -4.9 -4.5 -0.3 2.5 2.9 3.5 2.5 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.0
Spain 4.2 3.4 -3.9 -2.6 -2.2 -0.9 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.2
France 1.7 1.1 0.0 0.7 0.7 1.8 1.7 1.0 2.0 1.5 1.2 2.4
Italy 0.6 1.0 0.1 1.0 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.4 -0.3 1.1 0.2 -0.1
Cyprus 0.2 2.7 -0.7 2.1 3.2 4.6 5.2 4.7 4.6 5.8 6.1 6.0
Latvia 1.8 1.6 0.7 1.9 3.0 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.8
Lithuania 1.7 1.2 -1.2 2.3 3.0 3.5 3.3 2.6 2.6 3.3 3.2 3.0
Luxembourg 7.8 6.9 5.4 5.8 6.7 6.3 7.4 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.1 5.7
Malta -1.9 -0.9 -0.6 1.3 3.5 5.8 5.2 4.6 4.3 4.3 3.9 3.7
Netherlands 3.0 3.0 0.5 1.6 3.6 4.6 5.0 5.2 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.6
Austria 2.4 1.7 1.6 3.1 2.0 3.0 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.7 3.8
Portugal -0.4 -2.1 -3.7 -0.9 -0.6 1.0 2.3 2.3 2.5 1.7 1.8 2.1
Slovenia 1.9 2.9 -0.4 1.2 1.3 3.3 4.4 4.6 4.9 3.8 3.5 3.7
Slovakia 0.3 0.5 -1.2 2.1 1.0 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9
Finland 7.7 6.2 1.6 1.1 2.2 3.0 3.2 3.6 3.8 3.1 3.5 3.8
Euro area 1.5 1.5 0.1 1.3 1.5 2.4 2.8 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.6
Bulgaria 4.1 4.8 1.1 1.3 3.4 3.2 4.1 3.9 4.2 3.8 3.6 3.7
Czechia 3.3 3.5 1.7 3.4 4.1 5.0 4.9 4.3 3.9 5.2 4.6 4.5
Denmark 3.7 6.0 2.7 3.5 4.0 4.9 4.4 4.2 4.2 3.8 3.9 3.9
Croatia : 3.6 -0.8 1.0 3.4 4.3 4.9 4.7 4.7 3.9 3.7 3.6
Hungary 0.3 -1.3 0.1 3.6 3.3 3.4 4.1 4.9 4.9 4.1 4.7 5.2
Poland -1.5 0.6 -0.6 1.1 0.9 2.3 3.5 2.5 2.2 3.4 3.7 3.7
Romania 2.1 1.9 0.9 2.9 1.1 -0.6 0.0 -0.4 -1.3 -1.3 -1.6 -2.7
Sweden 4.5 5.9 3.6 4.3 5.5 5.9 5.8 5.3 5.3 5.8 5.8 5.7
EU27 : 1.7 0.3 1.5 1.8 2.6 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.7
United Kingdom 1.2 -1.3 -3.6 -1.1 0.0 1.2 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.7 2.0 2.3
EU : 1.3 -0.3 1.1 1.5 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.7
Japan -0.6 -0.6 -3.5 -0.2 -0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 -0.1 0.1 0.5
United States -0.2 -2.3 -4.9 -1.6 -2.2 -2.3 -3.1 -3.2 -3.2 -2.5 -2.7 -2.7

196
 Statistical Annex

Table 47: Exports of goods and services, volume (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 4.7 1.5 4.6 3.5 7.6 5.0 3.5 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.2 2.9
Germany 7.3 2.7 6.3 5.3 2.3 4.6 2.0 1.1 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0
Estonia 5.6 3.5 11.3 -1.4 5.2 3.5 4.3 3.4 3.4 4.6 3.9 3.7
Ireland 9.0 4.2 5.0 39.3 4.4 7.8 8.9 4.5 4.1 6.1 4.5 4.1
Greece 5.9 0.3 3.0 3.1 -1.8 6.8 8.7 4.7 4.2 8.4 5.7 4.4
Spain 4.6 0.4 5.3 4.2 5.2 5.2 2.3 2.3 2.9 2.6 3.3 3.4
France 4.4 0.3 4.6 4.6 1.5 4.5 3.3 2.8 2.9 3.4 3.4 3.2
Italy 3.2 -1.2 4.5 4.4 2.1 5.9 1.9 1.9 3.1 1.6 3.4 3.2
Cyprus 1.4 1.0 2.7 5.2 4.6 6.0 3.3 0.8 0.8 6.2 1.7 1.7
Latvia 9.2 6.1 8.4 3.1 4.4 6.2 1.8 2.2 2.4 3.6 3.3 3.0
Lithuania 14.1 6.8 11.8 0.9 4.0 13.6 4.9 3.6 3.6 5.2 4.1 3.7
Luxembourg 7.4 3.8 7.6 5.3 3.8 -1.9 4.5 1.8 2.4 3.2 2.7 2.2
Malta 1.0 10.1 4.1 15.6 4.5 5.6 2.1 2.4 2.8 1.5 1.9 1.9
Netherlands 4.8 2.1 5.0 7.4 1.7 5.3 2.7 1.6 2.9 3.0 3.6 3.3
Austria 6.5 1.5 4.7 3.5 2.7 4.7 4.4 2.8 3.2 4.6 3.7 3.0
Portugal 4.3 1.6 6.2 6.1 4.4 7.8 3.6 3.2 3.5 5.5 4.3 3.6
Slovenia 8.7 4.6 5.2 5.0 6.4 10.7 7.2 5.4 5.6 8.1 6.2 4.2
Slovakia 12.7 6.4 9.4 6.0 5.5 5.9 4.8 6.1 5.5 5.4 8.0 7.0
Finland 5.5 1.8 1.5 0.8 3.5 7.7 1.5 3.2 3.4 4.2 3.9 3.6
Euro area 5.6 1.6 5.4 6.6 3.0 5.2 3.2 2.3 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.3
Bulgaria 3.9 4.9 7.6 5.7 8.1 5.8 -0.8 3.3 2.9 0.7 2.9 3.4
Czechia 12.4 7.1 7.3 6.0 4.3 6.7 4.5 3.3 3.1 4.4 3.7 3.4
Denmark 4.3 3.1 3.2 3.6 3.9 3.6 0.6 2.5 2.3 0.6 2.7 1.9
Croatia 9.9 -0.2 3.5 9.4 5.6 6.4 2.8 3.2 3.3 4.3 4.2 4.1
Hungary 12.5 8.2 5.8 7.2 5.1 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.8 7.1 6.0 5.6
Poland 9.8 7.1 7.6 7.7 8.8 9.5 6.3 5.2 4.7 6.1 5.8 4.6
Romania 6.2 9.6 11.2 4.6 16.0 10.0 5.4 4.4 3.6 6.3 6.5 6.1
Sweden 5.6 1.1 4.6 5.7 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.1 2.9 3.4 3.2 3.0
EU27 5.8 2.0 5.5 6.5 3.5 5.3 3.3 2.5 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.4
United Kingdom 4.2 2.0 3.4 4.4 1.0 5.6 0.1 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.9 2.0
EU 5.6 2.0 5.2 6.3 3.2 5.4 3.0 2.5 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.2
Japan 7.2 0.0 6.5 2.9 1.7 6.8 3.1 1.7 2.1 4.1 2.6 2.2
United States 2.4 4.3 6.1 0.6 -0.1 3.0 4.0 2.8 2.4 4.0 2.8 2.1

Table 48: Imports of goods and services, volume (percentage change on preceding year, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 4.1 2.1 4.6 3.4 8.5 4.3 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.1
Germany 4.5 2.9 5.2 5.6 4.1 4.8 3.3 2.9 3.3 3.3 4.2 4.1
Estonia 9.8 0.7 12.2 -1.7 5.5 3.6 6.1 3.9 3.8 4.7 4.4 3.9
Ireland 7.6 5.2 3.4 33.2 18.5 -9.4 7.0 4.6 4.3 -0.3 4.1 3.8
Greece 5.6 1.3 -3.5 0.4 0.3 7.1 4.2 5.7 4.1 3.6 6.1 3.9
Spain 6.5 -0.6 1.0 5.4 2.9 5.6 3.5 2.7 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.2
France 5.2 1.7 4.4 5.9 3.0 4.0 1.3 2.5 3.0 1.8 3.3 3.1
Italy 3.8 -0.4 0.9 6.8 3.6 5.5 2.3 2.2 3.3 2.6 3.7 3.5
Cyprus 3.0 2.3 -0.2 8.4 6.6 12.2 2.0 3.5 3.0 7.3 3.5 2.7
Latvia 10.5 0.3 8.0 2.1 4.4 8.9 5.1 2.0 2.3 6.3 3.4 3.3
Lithuania 14.2 4.2 10.4 6.8 3.8 12.0 4.3 4.5 4.3 6.5 5.2 4.4
Luxembourg 7.4 3.7 9.2 4.3 4.5 -2.2 5.1 1.8 2.4 3.3 2.6 2.2
Malta 1.0 10.2 2.5 18.3 1.6 0.6 1.3 3.2 3.0 1.9 2.3 1.9
Netherlands 4.4 2.3 4.0 14.5 -2.0 4.9 2.8 1.9 3.4 3.4 4.1 3.7
Austria 5.4 1.0 4.4 3.6 3.4 5.1 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.4 3.3 2.6
Portugal 2.7 1.3 1.4 8.5 4.7 8.1 4.9 4.9 4.6 6.0 5.2 4.4
Slovenia 7.2 3.5 2.8 4.7 6.6 10.3 7.7 6.2 7.2 8.0 6.9 5.2
Slovakia 12.0 4.9 7.4 8.0 3.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.7 6.8 6.3
Finland 6.5 2.7 2.6 2.7 5.4 3.8 4.2 2.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.8
Euro area 5.0 1.8 3.8 7.6 4.2 3.9 3.2 2.8 3.3 3.0 3.9 3.6
Bulgaria 9.5 6.0 4.7 5.4 4.5 7.5 3.7 5.0 3.3 4.8 4.6 4.2
Czechia 12.8 5.4 6.7 6.8 2.8 5.9 6.0 4.2 3.5 5.1 4.0 3.4
Denmark 5.6 4.4 3.2 4.6 4.2 3.6 2.7 2.2 2.5 4.2 2.2 2.5
Croatia 10.7 0.0 0.6 9.2 6.2 8.1 5.5 5.3 5.0 6.2 5.9 6.0
Hungary 12.7 5.1 5.2 5.8 3.9 7.7 7.1 6.8 5.1 9.0 7.1 5.1
Poland 5.9 6.9 6.2 6.6 7.6 10.0 7.1 5.7 5.3 6.5 6.4 5.4
Romania 13.2 13.5 7.6 8.0 16.5 11.3 9.1 6.9 4.9 9.1 7.4 6.7
Sweden 3.7 2.1 5.2 5.2 4.3 4.8 2.9 1.9 2.2 3.7 3.2 3.1
EU27 5.3 2.3 4.1 7.4 4.4 4.4 3.5 3.1 3.4 3.4 4.1 3.7
United Kingdom 6.0 0.6 3.7 5.5 3.3 3.5 0.7 2.9 2.5 1.1 2.8 2.2
EU 5.4 2.1 4.0 7.2 4.3 4.3 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.9 3.6
Japan 4.4 -0.7 6.8 0.8 -1.6 3.4 3.3 1.7 1.6 3.3 2.8 1.6
United States 5.9 -0.2 5.5 5.5 1.9 4.6 4.5 3.1 2.9 4.5 3.9 2.8

197
European Economic Forecast, Spring 2019

Table 49: Merchandise trade balance¹ (fob-fob, as a percentage of GDP, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 3.4 1.1 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2
Germany 5.3 6.9 6.9 8.6 8.5 8.1 7.1 6.6 6.5 7.5 7.1 6.8
Estonia -17.1 -13.0 -4.4 -4.3 -3.5 -3.5 -3.7 -4.1 -4.3 -3.6 -3.9 -4.1
Ireland 24.8 17.7 22.0 43.2 38.8 36.6 34.4 33.2 32.6 36.4 35.7 35.0
Greece -15.7 -16.5 -11.5 -9.1 -9.3 -10.3 -9.9 -10.5 -10.5 -9.4 -10.2 -10.2
Spain -5.8 -7.3 -3.0 -2.0 -1.4 -1.9 -2.6 -2.5 -2.5 -2.3 -2.4 -2.3
France 0.3 -1.5 -2.3 -1.1 -1.3 -1.8 -1.9 -1.8 -1.9 -2.0 -2.1 -1.9
Italy 0.8 -0.2 0.7 3.1 3.4 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.8
Cyprus -24.7 -25.7 -18.6 -16.7 -21.0 -24.2 -21.5 -22.4 -23.1 -22.8 -23.8 -24.0
Latvia -18.5 -18.9 -10.9 -9.0 -7.5 -8.5 -8.7 -8.6 -8.6 -8.7 -9.3 -9.3
Lithuania -10.5 -11.5 -4.2 -5.3 -4.6 -4.6 -5.9 -6.5 -7.0 -5.9 -6.5 -6.3
Luxembourg -9.2 -5.5 -0.5 0.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.2
Malta -13.3 -18.2 -15.2 -19.5 -18.3 -12.6 -11.3 -11.6 -11.7 -11.7 -11.5 -11.3
Netherlands 7.1 8.3 9.0 9.5 9.3 9.6 8.8 8.1 7.9 9.2 9.1 8.9
Austria -0.3 0.3 -0.4 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.1
Portugal -11.0 -11.3 -6.4 -4.5 -4.3 -5.4 -6.2 -7.0 -7.5 -6.0 -6.5 -6.9
Slovenia -3.6 -3.5 0.0 3.8 3.8 3.6 2.7 1.8 0.8 3.4 3.2 2.4
Slovakia -7.5 -3.3 1.8 1.3 2.3 2.0 1.4 2.0 2.6 1.8 2.9 3.5
Finland 8.3 6.5 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.6
Euro area 1.6 0.9 1.8 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.1 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.2 3.1
Euro area, adjusted² 0.7 0.2 1.2 3.1 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.7 2.6 2.6
Bulgaria -17.2 -21.9 -7.8 -5.8 -2.0 -1.5 -4.7 -5.3 -5.3 -4.6 -4.8 -5.0
Czechia -6.1 0.7 3.1 4.1 5.4 5.0 3.8 3.1 2.8 4.3 4.2 4.4
Denmark 4.8 2.3 4.6 4.7 5.9 5.6 5.1 5.3 5.3 4.1 4.1 3.9
Croatia : -20.6 -14.3 -15.6 -15.7 -16.6 -17.6 -18.5 -19.2 -16.7 -17.3 -18.0
Hungary -6.0 -0.8 2.7 3.7 4.1 1.5 -1.1 -2.9 -3.1 0.3 -0.7 -0.3
Poland -4.2 -3.7 -1.9 0.5 0.7 0.3 -1.1 -2.0 -2.8 -0.7 -1.1 -1.5
Romania -12.3 -13.9 -6.0 -4.9 -5.5 -6.5 -7.3 -8.0 -8.4 -6.7 -7.4 -8.0
Sweden 7.5 6.1 3.5 3.0 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.6 3.0 2.1 2.1 2.0
United Kingdom -4.0 -5.5 -6.3 -6.2 -6.7 -6.7 -6.5 -6.7 -6.6 -6.4 -6.3 -6.2
EU 0.5 -0.3 0.4 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.3 1.3
EU, adjusted² -0.4 -1.1 -0.3 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.5
Japan 2.3 1.8 -0.6 -0.2 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4
United States -4.7 -5.5 -4.6 -4.4 -4.2 -4.3 -4.4 -4.4 -4.5 -4.4 -4.4 -4.5
¹ See note 7 on concepts and sources.
² See note 8 on concepts and sources.

Table 50: Current-account balance¹ (as a percentage of GDP, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019

5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 4.9 2.7 1.3 -0.8 -0.4 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.2 1.1 1.1
Germany 1.2 5.7 6.7 8.9 8.7 8.2 7.6 6.8 6.5 7.8 7.3 6.9
Estonia -9.7 -9.0 0.5 1.8 1.8 3.2 1.5 1.4 1.4 3.5 3.2 3.2
Ireland 0.3 -5.3 -0.7 4.4 -4.2 8.5 9.1 8.5 7.9 11.7 11.6 11.4
Greece -9.3 -13.1 -6.0 -0.3 -1.2 -1.1 -1.4 -1.0 -0.8 -0.2 -0.2 0.3
Spain -4.3 -7.9 -1.0 1.1 2.2 1.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.1
France 1.4 -0.3 -1.1 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5
Italy -0.4 -1.7 -0.8 1.3 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5
Cyprus -3.2 -10.1 -6.1 -1.4 -5.1 -8.4 -6.5 -8.0 -9.4 -8.2 -9.3 -9.5
Latvia -8.5 -12.0 -1.7 -0.5 1.6 0.7 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.4
Lithuania -6.0 -8.6 0.1 -2.0 -0.7 0.9 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6
Luxembourg 6.5 4.6 0.7 2.0 2.6 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.2 3.8 3.3
Malta -4.1 -6.2 -0.5 2.8 3.8 10.4 11.2 9.8 9.5 12.3 11.2 10.6
Netherlands 5.6 5.6 9.1 6.3 8.1 10.5 11.0 10.1 9.5 10.1 9.5 9.1
Austria 0.8 2.9 2.3 1.9 2.6 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.0 2.2 2.4
Portugal -9.2 -10.7 -3.5 -0.9 0.1 0.2 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
Slovenia -2.0 -3.0 1.9 4.5 5.4 7.1 7.3 6.7 6.1 7.5 7.1 6.7
Slovakia -6.0 -6.5 -1.5 -2.3 -1.2 -0.2 -1.1 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 1.2 2.1
Finland 6.9 3.2 -1.0 -0.7 -0.8 -0.3 -1.9 -1.5 -1.4 0.7 1.1 1.6
Euro area 0.4 0.2 1.9 3.3 3.5 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.8 3.6 3.6
Euro area, adjusted² -0.1 -0.3 1.2 2.7 3.1 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.5 3.1 2.9 2.9
Bulgaria -5.0 -16.6 0.4 0.6 5.3 6.2 2.5 1.6 1.5 5.9 4.6 5.1
Czechia -4.1 -4.0 -2.8 -1.5 0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1
Denmark 2.9 3.1 7.2 8.2 7.9 8.0 6.1 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.1
Croatia -3.7 -6.5 0.4 4.6 2.5 4.1 2.9 2.6 1.9 2.5 2.0 1.8
Hungary -7.6 -6.2 1.6 2.7 6.2 3.0 0.5 -1.2 -1.4 1.2 0.0 0.3
Poland -3.6 -4.8 -2.9 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.5 -1.0 -1.4 -0.6 -0.9 -1.3
Romania -5.0 -9.7 -3.3 -1.1 -2.0 -3.4 -4.7 -5.2 -5.3 -3.7 -4.2 -4.5
Sweden 5.7 7.7 5.4 4.3 3.8 3.7 3.4 4.1 4.6 3.2 3.0 2.9
United Kingdom -2.2 -3.3 -3.8 -4.9 -5.2 -3.3 -3.9 -3.7 -3.4 -3.3 -3.2 -3.0
EU -0.1 -0.5 0.9 1.8 2.0 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.5 2.3 2.3
EU, adjusted² -0.8 -1.3 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0
Japan 2.8 3.6 1.7 3.1 4.0 4.2 3.5 3.6 3.6 4.7 4.7 4.7
United States -4.3 -4.7 -2.5 -2.3 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.5 -2.6 -2.4 -2.6 -2.8
¹ See note 7 on concepts and sources.
² See note 8 on concepts and sources.

198
 Statistical Annex

Table 51: Net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) of the nation¹ (as a percentage of GDP, 2000-2020) 24.4.2019
5-year Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
averages forecast forecast
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 4.7 2.5 1.3 -0.7 -0.3 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.2 1.2 1.2
Germany 1.2 5.7 6.6 8.9 8.6 8.0 7.4 6.6 6.3 7.6 7.3 6.9
Estonia -9.3 -7.3 3.4 3.9 2.8 4.2 2.7 2.6 2.7 4.9 4.7 4.6
Ireland 0.8 -5.2 -1.5 3.9 -5.7 -1.1 2.1 1.9 1.6 3.5 3.8 4.1
Greece -8.0 -11.5 -4.1 2.1 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.4
Spain -3.4 -7.4 -0.5 1.7 2.4 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.4
France 1.3 -0.2 -1.1 -0.5 -0.8 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5
Italy -0.3 -1.6 -0.7 1.7 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4
Cyprus -2.8 -9.7 -5.5 -1.1 -4.9 -7.8 -6.9 -7.1 -8.6 -8.1 -9.3 -9.5
Latvia -8.0 -10.4 0.8 2.3 2.6 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.9
Lithuania -5.7 -6.5 3.2 1.0 0.7 2.1 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.7
Luxembourg 6.1 3.6 0.0 1.0 2.0 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.6
Malta -3.7 -4.4 1.2 5.6 4.1 10.9 11.7 10.8 10.5 12.9 12.0 11.5
Netherlands 5.6 5.6 8.6 5.8 7.9 10.4 10.9 10.0 9.4 9.8 9.2 8.8
Austria 0.6 2.9 2.3 1.3 2.5 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.5 1.8 2.0 2.3
Portugal -7.5 -9.5 -1.9 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.8
Slovenia -2.2 -2.8 2.4 5.6 4.6 6.3 6.8 6.0 5.4 7.0 7.4 6.9
Slovakia -6.5 -6.0 0.0 -0.2 -1.4 -0.8 -1.6 -1.0 -0.6 0.2 1.6 2.5
Finland 6.9 3.3 -0.9 -0.6 -0.8 -0.2 -1.8 -1.4 -1.3 0.6 1.0 1.1
Euro area 0.6 0.3 2.0 3.5 3.4 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.6 3.5 3.4
Euro area, adjusted² 0.1 -0.2 1.3 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.9 2.7 2.7
Bulgaria -4.9 -16.2 2.0 3.9 7.3 7.2 3.6 2.9 2.8 7.1 5.9 6.5
Czechia -3.9 -3.3 -1.1 1.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.5
Denmark 2.9 3.1 7.2 7.9 7.9 8.0 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.2 6.3 6.2
Croatia -3.7 -6.4 0.5 5.3 4.0 4.7 4.4 3.9 3.1 3.4 3.2 3.2
Hungary -7.4 -5.2 4.4 7.4 6.2 4.3 2.2 1.1 1.0 3.2 2.4 2.3
Poland -3.6 -4.0 -1.0 2.6 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0
Romania -4.6 -9.1 -1.7 1.3 0.5 -1.8 -3.1 -3.4 -3.4 -2.1 -2.5 -2.9
Sweden 5.6 7.5 5.2 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.4 4.1 4.6 3.1 2.8 2.6
United Kingdom -2.2 -3.3 -3.9 -5.0 -5.3 -3.4 -4.0 -3.8 -3.5 -3.4 -3.3 -3.1
EU 0.0 -0.4 1.1 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.4 2.3 2.2
EU, adjusted² -0.7 -1.1 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9
Japan 2.7 3.5 1.7 3.1 3.8 4.2 3.5 3.5 3.6 4.5 4.5 4.5
United States -4.3 -4.7 -2.5 -2.3 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.5 -2.6 -2.4 -2.6 -2.8
¹ See note 7 on concepts and sources.
² See note 8 on concepts and sources.

Table 52: Current-account balance¹ (in billions of euro, 2012-20) 24.4.2019

Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
forecast forecast
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 5.9 4.6 -1.1 -3.1 -1.6 3.9 1.0 0.9 0.0 5.3 5.3 5.3
Germany 197.0 189.7 224.0 271.6 274.4 268.9 258.1 236.5 235.1 263.9 257.3 251.4
Estonia -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9
Ireland -5.9 2.8 2.1 11.6 -11.4 24.9 29.0 28.5 27.8 37.8 39.7 41.5
Greece -8.1 -4.0 -3.7 -0.5 -2.1 -1.9 -2.6 -1.9 -1.5 -0.4 -0.4 0.6
Spain -4.6 15.0 10.3 11.4 24.1 22.4 11.3 11.3 11.9 14.6 12.5 14.2
France -24.2 -20.8 -26.4 -9.8 -17.5 -14.1 -15.2 -13.5 -15.9 -13.8 -15.9 -11.9
Italy -5.8 15.3 30.4 21.3 41.6 43.5 42.8 45.0 45.0 45.2 44.4 45.8
Cyprus -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.3 -0.9 -1.6 -1.3 -1.7 -2.1 -1.7 -2.0 -2.2
Latvia -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
Lithuania -0.3 0.5 1.5 -0.8 -0.3 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3
Luxembourg -0.1 -0.6 -0.5 1.0 1.4 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.4 2.3 2.1
Malta 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4
Netherlands 66.9 66.5 63.9 43.5 57.1 77.2 84.8 81.5 78.6 77.8 77.3 76.3
Austria 6.1 6.1 8.2 6.4 9.3 7.6 9.6 9.8 10.7 7.8 8.9 10.1
Portugal -3.4 1.3 -0.4 -1.6 0.3 0.4 -1.7 -2.2 -2.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.3
Slovenia 0.6 1.2 2.2 1.7 2.2 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.5
Slovakia 0.3 1.1 0.7 -1.8 -1.0 -0.2 -1.0 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 1.2 2.1
Finland -3.8 -3.8 -2.7 -1.5 -1.8 -0.7 -4.4 -3.6 -3.5 1.7 2.6 3.9
Euro area 218.1 273.4 308.0 349.6 375.0 438.5 418.2 397.5 391.3 446.1 438.5 444.4
Euro area, adjusted² 134.9 226.4 256.2 282.1 334.6 362.8 334.7 314.1 307.8 356.8 349.2 355.1
Bulgaria -0.1 0.9 0.2 0.3 2.6 3.2 1.4 1.0 1.0 3.3 2.7 3.2
Czechia -3.6 -1.7 -1.9 -2.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 -1.2 -1.4 -0.9 -1.1 -0.2
Denmark 16.0 20.1 23.7 22.5 22.3 23.3 18.2 19.4 20.0 17.9 19.1 19.2
Croatia 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.0 1.2 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.0
Hungary 1.8 3.8 1.6 3.0 7.1 3.7 0.6 -1.7 -2.1 1.6 0.0 0.5
Poland -12.8 -2.0 -5.6 0.8 -0.1 0.6 -2.7 -5.0 -7.6 -3.0 -4.6 -6.9
Romania -5.9 -1.4 -0.7 -1.8 -3.5 -6.3 -9.6 -11.3 -12.1 -7.6 -9.1 -10.6
Sweden 23.5 22.2 20.5 19.3 17.7 17.7 15.9 19.6 22.4 15.0 14.6 14.3
United Kingdom -78.7 -106.8 -112.8 -128.4 -125.4 -78.0 -92.3 -93.8 -89.1 -79.7 -78.5 -76.0
EU 158.4 208.9 233.8 264.8 297.0 405.3 351.3 325.8 323.4 393.9 382.6 388.8
EU, adjusted² 76.4 125.5 111.0 121.9 189.2 204.0 184.1 158.7 156.3 174.4 163.1 169.4
Japan 46.5 34.4 27.9 123.0 177.6 182.9 147.0 157.9 160.8 199.3 202.0 207.8
United States -332.2 -262.6 -274.9 -367.5 -391.1 -397.8 -413.6 -475.0 -507.5 -416.0 -476.0 -542.7
¹ See note 7 on concepts and sources.
² See note 8 on concepts and sources.

199
European Economic Forecast, Spring 2019

Table 53: Export markets (a) (percentage change on preceding year, 2012-20) 24.4.2019
Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
forecast forecast
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium 1.0 2.6 4.5 5.2 2.5 4.8 3.2 2.8 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.6
Germany 1.4 3.0 3.7 3.5 3.2 5.4 3.6 3.1 3.5 4.1 3.9 3.6
Estonia 3.4 2.2 1.7 1.7 3.4 5.9 3.8 2.6 3.3 4.2 3.7 3.5
Ireland 2.3 3.3 4.7 4.1 2.5 4.6 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.8 3.4
Greece 2.9 3.4 3.8 3.6 2.7 5.3 2.8 3.0 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.7
Spain 1.5 3.3 3.9 4.1 2.4 4.7 2.9 2.8 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.5
France 1.5 3.0 4.5 3.7 2.6 4.9 3.6 3.0 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.6
Italy 1.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.0 5.2 3.4 3.0 3.5 3.9 3.8 3.6
Cyprus 8.3 8.1 1.2 -5.1 -2.5 7.6 3.8 3.2 4.0 4.2 3.9 3.7
Latvia 5.0 3.7 1.9 -0.1 2.7 6.9 3.7 3.2 3.7 4.6 4.1 3.8
Lithuania 3.8 1.8 1.2 -1.0 2.9 6.6 4.1 3.1 3.5 4.6 4.0 3.8
Luxembourg 2.7 3.4 6.1 7.0 3.9 2.6 2.4 3.2 3.6 2.1 3.7 3.5
Malta 3.7 4.3 5.4 4.8 2.8 3.7 2.8 3.1 3.7 2.9 3.6 3.4
Netherlands 0.5 2.3 4.7 5.0 4.6 4.3 3.3 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.8 3.6
Austria 0.9 3.6 3.5 4.2 3.4 5.4 3.7 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.0
Portugal 0.4 2.4 5.0 4.5 1.8 4.2 3.0 2.9 3.4 3.3 3.7 3.4
Slovenia -0.2 2.3 3.6 4.0 4.0 6.2 4.0 3.6 3.9 4.5 4.5 4.2
Slovakia 0.2 2.1 4.8 4.2 4.0 6.3 4.2 3.5 3.6 4.6 4.3 3.9
Finland 3.1 2.9 3.2 1.2 2.7 5.7 3.7 2.9 3.5 4.2 3.9 3.7
Euro area (b) 1.4 3.0 4.1 4.0 3.1 5.0 3.4 3.0 3.5 3.8 3.9 3.6
Bulgaria 0.6 3.3 3.6 2.6 3.8 6.6 3.4 3.1 4.2 4.4 3.8 4.3
Czechia 0.5 2.8 3.8 4.1 3.8 5.8 3.8 3.3 3.6 4.3 4.3 4.1
Denmark 2.3 3.0 4.8 3.8 2.9 4.9 3.5 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.0 3.6
Croatia 1.0 3.2 4.1 4.4 3.5 5.7 3.8 3.8 4.2 4.1 4.5 4.1
Hungary 0.7 2.7 4.0 4.3 4.2 6.0 4.1 3.4 3.7 4.4 4.3 4.1
Poland 1.2 2.4 3.5 3.8 3.4 5.4 3.5 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.0 3.8
Romania 0.4 2.5 3.8 3.9 3.0 5.6 3.3 3.0 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.8
Sweden 2.5 3.1 3.8 3.5 3.3 4.5 3.3 2.9 3.4 3.8 3.9 3.4
United Kingdom 2.2 3.5 4.4 4.8 2.9 4.0 3.8 3.1 3.5 3.7 3.9 3.6
EU (b) 1.5 3.0 4.1 4.0 3.1 4.9 3.5 3.0 3.5 3.8 3.9 3.6
Japan 4.0 4.1 3.8 2.3 3.2 6.8 5.2 3.6 3.8 5.1 4.5 3.9
United States 4.2 3.6 4.1 2.8 1.9 4.7 3.9 2.7 3.6 4.1 3.8 3.6
(a) Imports of goods and services to the various markets (incl. EU-markets) weighted according to their share in country's exports of goods and services.
(b) Intra- and extra-EU trade.

200
 Statistical Annex

Table 54: Export performance (a) (percentage change on preceding year, 2012-20) 24.4.2019
Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
forecast forecast
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Belgium -0.7 -1.6 0.6 -1.6 5.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.7
Germany 1.4 -1.3 1.0 1.7 -0.9 -0.8 -1.6 -1.9 -0.9 -1.2 -0.9 -0.5
Estonia 1.3 0.6 1.2 -3.0 1.8 -2.3 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2
Ireland -3.1 -0.4 9.4 33.8 1.8 3.1 5.4 1.4 0.7 2.6 0.7 0.7
Greece -1.7 -1.8 3.8 -0.5 -4.4 1.4 5.8 1.7 0.4 4.7 2.1 0.6
Spain -0.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 2.7 0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -0.4 -0.1
France 1.4 -0.9 -1.2 0.9 -1.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4
Italy 0.6 -2.7 -0.7 1.1 -0.8 0.7 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 -2.2 -0.4 -0.4
Cyprus -10.2 -5.6 3.0 10.9 7.2 -1.5 -0.5 -2.3 -3.1 1.9 -2.1 -1.9
Latvia 4.5 -2.5 4.0 3.2 1.7 -0.6 -1.8 -1.0 -1.2 -1.0 -0.8 -0.8
Lithuania 8.2 7.9 2.1 1.9 1.1 6.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.1 -0.1
Luxembourg 0.1 1.8 9.7 -1.6 0.0 -4.4 2.1 -1.3 -1.1 1.1 -1.0 -1.2
Malta 3.2 -3.3 -1.2 10.3 1.7 1.9 -0.7 -0.7 -0.9 -1.4 -1.6 -1.4
Netherlands 2.7 0.2 -0.1 2.2 -2.8 1.0 -0.5 -1.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3
Austria 0.5 -2.8 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 0.7 -0.6 -0.5 0.6 -0.5 -1.0
Portugal 3.0 4.4 -0.6 1.5 2.5 3.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 2.1 0.6 0.1
Slovenia 0.8 0.7 2.0 0.9 2.4 4.3 3.1 1.8 1.7 3.4 1.7 0.0
Slovakia 9.1 4.5 -0.8 1.7 1.4 -0.4 0.5 2.5 1.8 0.7 3.5 3.0
Finland -1.8 -1.8 -5.7 -0.4 0.8 1.9 -2.1 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1
Euro area (b) 1.0 -0.8 0.6 2.5 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3
Bulgaria 1.4 6.2 -0.5 3.1 4.2 -0.8 -4.0 0.2 -1.3 -3.6 -0.9 -0.8
Czechia 3.8 -2.5 4.7 1.8 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.0 -0.5 0.1 -0.6 -0.7
Denmark -1.1 -1.3 -1.6 -0.2 0.9 -1.3 -2.8 -0.5 -1.0 -3.1 -1.3 -1.6
Croatia -1.1 -0.1 1.8 4.8 2.0 0.7 -0.9 -0.5 -0.8 0.2 -0.3 0.0
Hungary -2.5 1.5 4.9 2.8 0.8 -1.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 2.5 1.6 1.4
Poland 3.4 3.6 3.1 3.8 5.3 3.8 2.7 2.0 1.2 2.0 1.7 0.8
Romania 0.7 17.3 4.0 0.7 12.6 4.2 2.1 1.4 0.0 2.3 2.6 2.2
Sweden -1.5 -3.7 1.4 2.1 -0.3 -1.3 0.2 0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4
United Kingdom -0.8 -1.9 -2.0 -0.3 -1.8 1.6 -3.5 -0.8 -0.9 -1.6 -1.0 -1.6
EU (b) 0.8 -0.7 0.6 2.2 0.1 0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4
Japan -4.0 -3.2 5.3 0.6 -1.4 0.0 -2.0 -1.8 -1.6 -0.9 -1.9 -1.7
United States -0.7 0.0 0.2 -2.2 -1.9 -1.6 0.0 0.2 -1.2 -0.1 -1.0 -1.4
(a) Index for exports of goods and services divided by an index for growth of markets.
(b) Intra- and extra-EU trade.

201
European Economic Forecast, Spring 2019

Table 55: World GDP, volume (percentage change on preceding year, 2014-20) 24.4.2019
Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
forecast forecast
(a) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
EU 16.5 1.8 2.3 2.0 2.5 2.0 1.4 1.6 2.1 1.9 1.8
Euro area 11.5 1.4 2.1 2.0 2.4 1.9 1.2 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.7
Belgium 0.4 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.4
Bulgaria 0.1 1.8 3.5 3.9 3.8 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.6
Czechia 0.3 2.7 5.3 2.5 4.4 2.9 2.6 2.4 3.0 2.9 2.6
Denmark 0.2 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.3 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.8 1.6
Germany 3.3 2.2 1.7 2.2 2.2 1.4 0.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.7
Estonia 0.0 2.9 1.9 3.5 4.9 3.9 2.8 2.4 3.5 2.8 2.6
Ireland 0.3 8.8 25.1 5.0 7.2 6.7 3.8 3.4 7.8 4.5 3.8
Greece 0.2 0.7 -0.4 -0.2 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0
Spain 1.4 1.4 3.6 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.1 1.9 2.6 2.2 2.0
France 2.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.6
Croatia 0.1 -0.1 2.4 3.5 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.6
Italy 1.8 0.1 0.9 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.3
Cyprus 0.0 -1.3 2.0 4.8 4.5 3.9 3.1 2.7 3.9 3.5 2.9
Latvia 0.0 1.9 3.0 2.1 4.6 4.8 3.1 2.8 4.1 3.2 2.9
Lithuania 0.1 3.5 2.0 2.4 4.1 3.4 2.7 2.4 3.4 2.8 2.5
Luxembourg 0.0 4.3 3.9 2.4 1.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.0 2.7
Hungary 0.2 4.2 3.5 2.3 4.1 4.9 3.7 2.8 4.3 3.4 2.6
Malta 0.0 8.5 10.7 5.7 6.7 6.6 5.5 4.8 5.4 4.9 4.4
Netherlands 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.9 2.7 1.6 1.6 2.8 2.4 1.8
Austria 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.0 2.6 2.7 1.5 1.6 2.7 2.0 1.8
Poland 0.9 3.3 3.8 3.1 4.8 5.1 4.2 3.6 4.8 3.7 3.3
Portugal 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.9 2.8 2.1 1.7 1.7 2.2 1.8 1.7
Romania 0.4 3.4 3.9 4.8 7.0 4.1 3.3 3.1 3.6 3.8 3.6
Slovenia 0.1 3.0 2.3 3.1 4.9 4.5 3.1 2.8 4.3 3.3 3.0
Slovakia 0.1 2.8 4.2 3.1 3.2 4.1 3.8 3.4 4.0 4.1 3.5
Finland 0.2 -0.6 0.5 2.8 2.7 2.3 1.6 1.2 2.9 2.2 1.9
Sweden 0.4 2.6 4.5 2.7 2.1 2.3 1.4 1.6 2.4 1.8 1.8
United Kingdom 2.3 2.9 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2
Candidate Countries 1.9 4.7 5.8 3.2 7.0 2.7 -1.9 3.9 3.8 -1.1 3.1
- Albania 0.0 1.8 2.2 3.3 3.8 4.1 3.8 3.7 4.1 3.9 3.9
- Montenegro 0.0 1.8 3.4 2.9 4.7 4.9 2.9 3.1 3.9 2.8 3.1
- North Macedonia 0.0 3.6 3.9 2.8 0.2 2.7 3.0 3.2 2.1 2.8 3.1
- Serbia 0.1 -1.6 1.8 3.3 2.0 4.3 3.1 3.8 4.1 3.8 3.8
- Turkey 1.7 5.2 6.1 3.2 7.4 2.6 -2.3 3.9 3.8 -1.5 3.0
Potential Candidates 0.1 0.8 4.1 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.0 3.2 3.3
Iceland 0.0 2.1 4.7 6.6 4.6 4.6 1.8 2.8 3.4 3.1 3.0
Norway 0.3 2.0 2.0 1.2 2.0 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.9
Switzerland 0.4 2.4 1.3 1.6 1.6 2.5 1.5 2.0 3.0 2.3 2.0
Australia 1.0 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.9 2.7 2.7
Canada 1.4 2.9 0.7 1.1 3.0 1.8 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.9
Japan 4.3 0.4 1.2 0.6 1.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.5
Korea 1.6 3.3 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.5
United States 15.3 2.5 2.9 1.6 2.2 2.9 2.4 1.9 2.9 2.6 1.9
Advanced economies 44.4 2.2 2.5 1.8 2.6 2.3 1.7 1.8 2.4 2.1 1.9
Emerging and developing Asia 33.2 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.2 6.1
- China 18.2 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.2 6.0 6.6 6.2 5.9
- India 7.5 7.0 7.5 8.7 6.9 7.4 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.5
- Indonesia 2.5 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.0
CIS 4.5 1.0 -2.3 0.5 2.2 2.8 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3
- Russia 3.2 0.7 -2.8 -0.1 1.5 2.3 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.8
- Other CIS 1.3 1.7 -1.1 1.9 3.6 3.9 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.5
Latin America 7.7 1.3 0.2 -0.8 1.1 0.7 1.1 2.3 1.0 1.7 2.3
- Argentina 0.7 -2.5 2.7 -2.1 2.7 -2.5 -1.6 2.3 -2.8 -2.5 1.9
- Brazil 2.5 0.5 -3.5 -3.3 1.1 1.1 1.9 2.4 1.1 1.9 2.3
- Mexico 1.9 2.8 3.3 2.9 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.4
MENA 6.7 3.0 2.4 4.5 2.0 1.7 1.5 2.6 2.2 2.2 2.4
- Saudi Arabia 1.4 3.7 4.1 1.7 -0.8 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.6 2.4
Sub-Saharan Africa 3.2 5.0 3.3 1.2 2.8 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.1 3.6 3.8
- South Africa 0.6 1.8 1.2 0.4 1.4 0.8 1.3 1.5 0.6 1.5 2.0
Emerging and developing economies 55.6 4.6 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7
World 100.0 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.7 3.6 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.5
World excluding EU 83.5 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.8
World excluding euro area 88.5 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.7 3.9 3.7 3.7
(a) Relative weights in %, based on GDP (at constant prices and PPS) in 2017.

202
 Statistical Annex

Table 56: World exports of goods and services, volume (percentage change on preceding year, 2014-20) 24.4.2019
Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
forecast forecast
(a) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
EU (b) 35.3 4.7 6.3 3.2 5.4 3.0 2.5 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.2
Euro area (b) 26.6 4.7 6.6 3.0 5.2 3.2 2.3 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.3
Candidate Countries 1.1 7.8 4.8 -0.3 11.5 7.8 5.3 4.1 5.9 5.4 4.0
- Albania 0.0 1.2 1.0 11.3 12.9 3.0 5.9 6.7 4.5 4.3 5.1
- Montenegro 0.0 -0.7 5.7 5.9 1.8 9.5 4.1 3.8 7.5 2.6 3.4
- North Macedonia 0.0 16.5 8.5 9.1 8.1 15.3 8.0 8.5 11.2 9.7 9.7
- Serbia 0.1 4.3 9.4 11.9 8.2 8.9 6.1 9.3 8.5 7.9 7.2
- Turkey 0.9 8.2 4.3 -1.9 11.9 7.5 5.1 3.3 5.5 5.1 3.4
Iceland 0.1 3.2 9.1 10.9 5.4 1.6 1.0 2.4 3.6 3.2 3.2
Norway 0.6 3.1 4.7 1.1 -0.2 -0.8 1.6 2.3 0.7 3.3 2.6
Switzerland 2.0 -6.2 2.6 6.7 -0.4 2.0 3.2 3.5 4.4 4.2 3.9
Australia 1.3 6.9 6.5 6.8 3.4 5.0 1.6 2.6 4.6 4.9 4.8
Canada 2.3 5.9 3.5 1.0 1.1 3.3 3.7 3.0 3.5 4.1 2.9
Japan 3.8 9.3 2.9 1.7 6.8 3.1 1.7 2.1 4.1 2.6 2.2
Korea 3.0 2.0 -0.1 2.6 1.9 4.2 2.3 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.0
United States 10.4 4.3 0.6 -0.1 3.0 4.0 2.8 2.4 4.0 2.8 2.1
Advanced economies 67.3 4.2 4.1 2.2 4.7 3.3 2.6 2.9 3.7 3.5 3.0
Emerging and developing Asia 17.7 4.2 -1.5 2.7 9.8 6.0 3.8 4.2 4.9 4.5 4.2
- China 10.8 4.3 -2.2 1.1 9.1 5.0 2.8 3.0 4.0 3.4 3.1
- India 2.2 3.9 -5.5 6.7 10.0 10.4 5.8 7.2 6.9 6.8 6.8
- Indonesia 0.9 -1.9 -6.1 1.1 13.4 3.7 5.4 5.9 5.1 5.5 6.0
CIS 2.8 -0.4 1.1 1.0 5.2 6.0 3.0 3.5 6.6 4.1 4.1
- Russia 1.8 0.5 3.7 3.2 5.1 5.6 2.7 3.5 5.2 4.0 4.0
- Other CIS 0.9 -2.2 -3.9 -3.3 5.4 6.9 3.5 3.6 9.5 4.3 4.3
Latin America 5.1 1.8 4.5 3.0 4.8 3.6 3.1 4.1 3.9 4.2 4.1
- Argentina 0.3 -7.8 -1.6 6.8 -0.2 -2.1 8.0 5.1 1.3 5.4 3.3
- Brazil 1.1 -0.3 8.1 3.7 11.4 7.1 3.5 4.3 2.2 4.5 4.8
- Mexico 1.9 7.0 8.4 3.7 3.9 5.7 3.5 4.6 6.9 4.4 4.0
MENA 5.7 2.1 5.4 3.5 1.5 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 3.1
- Saudi Arabia 1.1 1.9 4.1 5.9 -0.4 7.6 0.6 1.2 2.3 2.2 3.0
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.4 1.2 2.6 -1.3 1.9 2.2 4.1 3.8 2.6 4.4 4.3
- South Africa 0.5 3.6 2.8 1.0 -0.1 1.4 2.4 2.8 1.0 3.2 3.6
Emerging and developing economies 32.7 2.7 1.3 2.6 6.9 4.8 3.3 3.7 4.4 4.0 4.0
World 100.0 3.7 3.1 2.3 5.4 3.8 2.9 3.2 3.9 3.7 3.3
World excluding EU 64.7 3.2 1.5 1.8 5.4 4.3 3.1 3.3 4.2 3.7 3.4
World excluding euro area 73.4 3.3 1.9 2.1 5.5 4.1 3.1 3.3 4.1 3.7 3.4
(a) Relative weights in %, based on exports of goods and services (at current prices and current exchange rates) in 2017.

(b) Intra- and extra-EU trade.

Table 57: Export shares in EU trade (goods only - 2017) 24.4.2019

Other Sub-
Candidate Advanced Latin Saharan
EU Euro Area Countries USA Japan Economies China Rest of Asia CIS MENA America Africa
EU 63.9 46.3 2.1 7.7 1.2 7.3 3.9 3.3 2.3 4.6 2.4 1.4
Euro area 63.9 45.6 2.0 7.6 1.2 6.8 4.0 3.4 2.2 4.7 2.6 1.4
Belgium 74.1 58.7 1.3 5.6 0.7 3.9 2.0 4.0 1.1 3.7 1.4 2.2
Bulgaria 65.8 46.8 13.0 1.9 0.3 2.0 2.8 3.0 4.4 5.6 0.6 0.7
Czechia 82.9 64.5 1.8 2.5 0.5 3.2 1.5 1.2 3.0 2.1 0.7 0.5
Denmark 62.4 38.9 1.1 8.4 1.9 11.0 4.6 2.9 1.4 3.0 2.4 0.8
Germany 58.3 36.4 2.2 9.3 1.4 8.4 6.6 3.8 2.5 3.9 2.7 1.0
Estonia 74.3 47.3 1.7 3.5 0.6 6.7 1.6 1.8 7.1 1.6 0.6 0.7
Ireland 53.1 36.0 0.6 23.9 3.8 8.2 2.3 2.0 0.8 2.7 1.9 0.7
Greece 55.6 38.2 13.2 4.9 0.3 3.4 1.0 2.0 2.7 14.0 1.7 1.3
Spain 66.2 52.1 2.3 4.8 1.1 4.6 2.0 2.2 1.3 7.8 6.0 1.5
France 58.9 45.7 1.7 7.9 1.5 7.2 4.5 4.7 1.7 6.8 2.7 2.2
Croatia 72.4 60.1 10.5 3.8 0.5 2.6 0.9 0.9 3.1 4.1 0.7 0.4
Italy 54.7 39.8 3.4 9.0 1.4 9.6 3.2 3.5 2.8 7.8 3.3 1.2
Cyprus 52.4 32.7 0.4 1.2 0.0 3.9 1.8 10.9 2.1 25.4 0.3 1.6
Latvia 71.3 48.9 1.5 1.9 0.4 4.1 1.2 1.3 12.5 4.6 0.6 0.6
Lithuania 65.6 43.1 1.0 4.5 0.8 4.9 0.6 1.4 18.1 2.1 0.5 0.5
Luxembourg 84.0 72.3 1.1 2.8 0.4 3.5 1.6 1.6 1.3 2.3 0.8 0.7
Hungary 78.8 56.1 3.1 4.1 0.8 2.8 2.2 1.0 3.9 1.5 1.4 0.4
Malta 39.1 28.6 0.9 5.1 3.3 13.3 6.5 10.1 0.8 17.9 1.0 2.1
Netherlands 78.3 59.9 1.0 3.4 0.6 4.3 1.9 2.8 1.2 3.0 1.8 1.7
Austria 70.3 51.7 1.7 6.5 0.9 7.9 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.5 1.7 0.6
Poland 79.6 56.7 2.1 2.5 0.4 3.7 1.3 1.2 5.3 1.8 1.4 0.7
Portugal 71.9 60.5 1.1 5.6 0.4 3.5 2.4 0.8 0.8 4.4 3.1 6.0
Romania 72.2 52.7 6.0 2.7 0.5 3.0 1.6 1.1 4.8 6.3 1.1 0.7
Slovenia 78.5 53.9 5.7 2.0 0.2 2.9 1.1 1.1 4.8 2.9 0.5 0.3
Slovakia 84.2 46.3 1.8 2.6 0.1 2.8 2.4 0.5 3.4 1.5 0.5 0.2
Finland 59.1 38.4 1.7 6.7 1.9 8.1 5.2 4.2 6.2 3.2 2.7 1.0
Sweden 60.8 41.4 1.3 7.1 1.2 12.6 4.3 3.8 1.8 3.6 2.2 1.2
United Kingdom 46.7 41.0 1.6 13.9 1.4 14.5 5.5 5.1 1.5 6.2 1.9 1.7

203
European Economic Forecast, Spring 2019

Table 58: World imports of goods and services, volume (percentage change on preceding year, 2014-20) 24.4.2019
Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
forecast forecast
(a) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
EU (b) 33.4 5.2 7.2 4.3 4.3 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.9 3.6
Euro area (b) 24.7 4.9 7.6 4.2 3.9 3.2 2.8 3.3 3.0 3.9 3.6
Candidate Countries 1.3 0.5 2.0 4.3 10.2 -5.4 -5.1 8.3 3.2 -4.7 5.4
- Albania 0.0 4.3 -2.9 6.9 8.1 3.9 4.4 5.1 4.4 3.8 4.5
- Montenegro 0.0 1.6 4.4 15.3 8.4 9.3 3.7 1.9 8.8 4.8 1.5
- North Macedonia 0.0 14.1 9.9 11.1 6.4 9.0 8.2 9.1 7.9 8.6 9.3
- Serbia 0.1 5.1 4.0 6.7 11.1 11.1 8.1 8.7 10.2 8.2 7.6
- Turkey 1.1 -0.4 1.7 3.7 10.3 -7.9 -7.8 8.4 2.2 -6.9 5.1
Iceland 0.0 9.8 13.8 14.5 12.5 0.1 4.0 3.2 6.4 5.0 3.9
Norway 0.6 2.4 1.6 3.3 1.6 0.9 2.5 2.8 4.0 5.0 2.7
Switzerland 1.7 -7.7 4.5 6.0 -0.8 -1.9 3.0 3.8 3.0 3.5 3.7
Australia 1.3 -1.4 2.0 0.1 7.7 4.1 2.0 2.6 4.1 3.8 4.0
Canada 2.5 2.5 0.6 0.0 4.2 2.9 0.7 2.4 4.6 2.7 2.3
Japan 3.8 8.3 0.8 -1.6 3.4 3.3 1.7 1.6 3.3 2.8 1.6
Korea 2.7 1.5 2.1 4.7 7.0 1.7 1.7 2.2 3.2 3.0 2.6
United States 13.4 5.1 5.5 1.9 4.6 4.5 3.1 2.9 4.5 3.9 2.8
Advanced economies 67.8 4.1 5.0 2.8 4.6 3.2 2.7 3.1 3.7 3.6 3.2
Emerging and developing Asia 17.3 6.0 0.2 4.7 9.3 8.4 4.6 4.9 6.6 5.8 5.1
- China 10.1 7.8 -0.5 4.7 7.1 6.8 3.7 4.0 6.6 5.2 4.2
- India 2.6 5.4 -0.2 4.0 13.8 15.6 6.2 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.2
- Indonesia 0.8 -1.4 -9.1 2.1 10.5 13.0 5.5 5.8 5.5 5.9 6.2
CIS 2.4 -8.0 -20.4 -2.4 12.8 5.0 3.2 4.3 6.2 4.3 4.6
- Russia 1.5 -7.3 -25.1 -3.6 17.4 3.2 1.9 4.5 5.4 4.0 4.7
- Other CIS 1.0 -9.1 -12.5 -0.7 6.2 7.9 5.1 4.0 7.5 4.8 4.3
Latin America 5.4 -0.2 -2.2 -3.3 4.5 4.0 1.7 4.1 3.5 3.0 4.0
- Argentina 0.4 -10.8 2.6 3.6 14.2 -6.1 -9.8 4.8 -2.3 -8.0 3.3
- Brazil 1.0 -0.1 -13.5 -8.2 5.1 6.8 3.4 5.0 3.7 3.8 4.3
- Mexico 2.1 5.9 5.9 2.9 6.2 6.2 3.9 4.6 5.9 5.0 4.6
MENA 5.6 7.9 -0.9 -2.5 3.3 3.4 2.4 2.7 3.6 3.0 2.7
- Saudi Arabia 0.9 15.2 1.1 -16.2 0.3 6.1 3.6 4.0 4.3 3.4 2.1
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.6 7.6 2.4 -10.1 0.4 4.1 3.7 4.4 4.9 4.7 4.6
- South Africa 0.5 -0.6 5.4 -3.8 1.6 2.5 2.4 3.0 2.5 3.4 3.9
Emerging and developing economies 32.2 3.9 -2.2 0.6 7.2 6.3 3.6 4.3 5.5 4.7 4.5
World 100.0 4.0 2.6 2.1 5.4 4.2 3.0 3.5 4.3 4.0 3.6
World excluding EU 66.6 3.5 0.4 1.0 6.0 4.7 3.0 3.6 4.8 4.0 3.7
World excluding euro area 75.3 3.8 1.0 1.4 5.9 4.6 3.1 3.6 4.7 4.0 3.6
(a) Relative weights in %, based on imports of goods and services (at current prices and current exchange rates) in 2017.

(b) Intra- and extra-EU trade.

Table 59: Import shares in EU trade (goods only - 2017) 24.4.2019

Other Sub-
Candidate Advanced Latin Saharan
EU Euro Area Countries USA Japan Economies China Rest of Asia CIS MENA America Africa
EU 64.3 49.6 1.5 5.3 1.3 6.3 7.1 4.1 4.1 2.6 1.9 1.5
Euro area 63.8 48.5 1.4 5.3 1.3 6.0 6.9 4.2 4.2 3.1 2.2 1.6
Belgium 63.9 53.4 1.0 9.1 1.9 5.1 4.4 5.1 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.0
Bulgaria 66.5 46.8 8.2 1.0 0.3 2.3 3.7 1.7 12.5 1.8 1.4 0.6
Czechia 78.7 61.0 0.9 1.5 0.8 3.8 7.3 2.2 4.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
Denmark 70.9 48.3 1.1 2.6 0.5 9.2 7.3 3.4 2.2 0.6 1.6 0.7
Germany 66.6 45.4 1.7 4.8 1.5 7.4 7.0 4.3 3.4 1.0 1.5 0.9
Estonia 76.6 54.7 0.6 1.6 0.4 2.6 5.3 1.4 10.8 0.2 0.4 0.1
Ireland 68.0 30.1 0.6 13.3 1.8 5.3 4.0 3.3 0.5 0.7 1.8 0.8
Greece 53.9 41.1 4.1 1.5 0.5 5.2 6.8 2.9 10.8 12.1 1.3 0.7
Spain 61.5 50.2 1.7 3.5 0.8 3.8 7.1 4.0 2.0 6.9 5.0 3.6
France 69.6 58.6 1.1 5.5 0.9 5.4 5.0 3.3 2.1 4.1 1.3 1.7
Croatia 78.3 61.2 4.0 1.3 0.2 2.5 3.9 1.3 5.7 1.6 0.9 0.3
Italy 58.9 46.6 2.5 3.9 0.9 5.5 7.2 3.9 7.1 5.7 2.4 1.9
Cyprus 70.7 54.4 0.4 1.0 2.3 2.5 6.1 5.2 3.7 6.8 1.0 0.2
Latvia 63.9 46.7 0.7 1.1 0.2 2.0 4.0 1.6 25.8 0.3 0.2 0.1
Lithuania 66.7 45.2 0.9 1.7 0.2 3.2 3.8 0.9 20.5 1.0 0.5 0.5
Luxembourg 74.8 70.9 0.2 7.2 1.5 2.0 10.8 0.8 0.1 0.2 2.2 0.2
Hungary 76.9 58.5 1.6 1.9 1.5 3.4 6.2 2.4 4.9 0.7 0.5 0.1
Malta 40.5 32.4 2.9 3.0 2.0 16.0 11.8 8.4 11.8 3.0 0.2 0.4
Netherlands 47.0 35.9 0.7 8.0 2.3 6.8 13.1 6.5 6.3 3.1 3.8 2.4
Austria 79.2 65.1 1.2 2.6 0.7 6.8 2.7 2.6 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.2
Poland 72.6 59.1 1.3 1.8 0.7 3.7 7.2 2.3 7.8 0.8 1.4 0.4
Portugal 75.9 68.5 0.8 1.5 0.5 2.5 3.7 2.3 2.8 3.1 2.8 4.0
Romania 77.1 55.1 4.9 1.1 0.5 2.2 4.6 1.3 6.4 0.9 0.8 0.4
Slovenia 72.4 54.8 5.7 1.4 0.3 6.4 6.4 2.4 0.9 1.8 1.8 0.4
Slovakia 80.0 44.2 1.1 0.6 0.4 6.1 4.0 1.6 5.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Finland 71.5 44.1 0.5 2.5 0.5 4.5 4.7 1.6 11.6 0.4 1.6 0.7
Sweden 72.5 52.5 1.0 2.8 1.1 8.8 5.7 2.9 2.7 0.5 1.2 0.8
United Kingdom 54.7 47.7 1.7 9.1 1.6 10.0 9.7 5.8 1.6 2.5 1.7 1.7

204
 Statistical Annex

Table 60: World merchandise trade balances (fob-fob, in billions of US dollar, 2013-20) 24.4.2019
Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
forecast forecast
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
EU 181.7 201.8 308.9 320.7 299.5 235.1 175.6 171.6 280.7 255.6 260.1
EU, adjusted¹ 33.5 45.2 139.5 161.0 137.4 72.1 19.8 16.1 121.3 100.4 104.9
Euro area 341.5 381.0 464.2 470.8 453.9 420.2 378.4 383.6 457.0 440.1 451.2
Euro area, adjusted¹ 277.8 322.0 366.9 383.6 358.8 326.5 288.9 294.3 371.5 356.9 367.9
Candidate Countries -92.1 -75.5 -58.2 -50.7 -70.1 -50.9 -27.8 -39.7 -72.6 -49.4 -56.2
- Albania -2.6 -2.9 -2.5 -2.9 -3.2 -3.4 -3.5 -3.8 -3.3 -3.4 -3.6
- Montenegro -1.8 -1.8 -1.6 -1.8 -2.1 -2.4 -2.4 -2.5 -2.4 -2.5 -2.6
- North Macedonia -2.5 -2.5 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.1 -2.2 -2.6 -2.2 -2.3 -2.6
- Serbia -4.4 -4.4 -3.6 -3.0 -4.0 -5.5 -6.1 -6.6 -5.6 -6.2 -6.8
- Turkey -80.8 -63.8 -48.4 -41.0 -58.8 -37.5 -13.5 -24.2 -59.0 -35.0 -40.7
Iceland 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -1.5 -1.5 -1.7 -1.9 -1.8 -2.0 -2.1
Norway 60.9 49.8 24.5 10.7 18.9 30.0 30.9 31.9 20.6 21.7 22.7
Switzerland 53.7 55.5 53.7 50.5 49.9 57.9 59.0 60.8 61.2 65.8 69.7
Australia 7.3 2.2 -19.0 -5.8 10.5 19.8 25.1 26.8 22.4 26.6 29.7
Canada -7.9 4.3 -18.6 -19.6 -19.1 -16.6 -6.8 -4.3 -12.2 -4.2 -2.1
Japan -89.9 -99.1 -7.3 50.8 44.2 10.8 11.7 12.7 27.8 21.4 19.2
Korea 80.3 86.1 120.3 116.5 113.6 111.9 112.5 119.8 106.7 108.1 118.1
United States -737.2 -776.6 -793.0 -778.3 -842.7 -901.8 -939.8 -987.9 -892.0 -947.7 -999.9
Advanced economies -437.0 -436.7 -249.3 -167.4 -249.3 -376.1 -435.2 -477.3 -326.3 -362.3 -389.3
Emerging and developing Asia 216.3 336.3 483.8 427.4 369.7 218.3 194.2 183.3 204.3 142.6 120.5
- China : 435.0 576.2 488.9 475.9 395.2 386.8 397.9 374.5 344.0 344.0
- India -162.6 -144.0 -136.9 -107.5 -148.1 -181.5 -193.4 -208.7 -194.9 -220.8 -234.6
- Indonesia 5.8 7.0 14.0 15.3 18.8 -0.4 -0.8 -2.8 11.3 10.7 10.7
CIS 205.9 227.7 150.9 82.6 115.5 195.7 173.4 176.9 178.6 174.2 175.3
- Russia 182.2 186.8 145.7 90.2 115.0 190.9 174.6 178.6 164.9 160.3 164.0
- Other CIS 23.6 40.9 5.2 -7.6 0.5 4.9 -1.2 -1.8 13.7 13.9 11.2
Latin America 10.4 -9.6 -46.9 9.0 32.3 21.7 31.3 29.8 31.6 38.2 36.6
- Argentina 4.6 5.5 -0.8 4.4 -5.5 -0.9 11.4 14.4 -4.5 3.7 4.2
- Brazil 0.4 -6.6 17.7 45.0 64.0 53.6 50.9 48.5 61.8 62.0 63.6
- Mexico -0.9 -2.8 -14.6 -13.1 -11.0 -13.9 -13.4 -14.7 -19.1 -23.6 -27.2
MENA 589.9 452.8 123.7 73.9 181.2 310.5 231.2 218.7 336.3 367.3 358.8
- Saudi Arabia 222.6 184.0 44.3 55.8 98.5 170.5 138.3 134.3 156.3 169.5 169.7
Sub-Saharan Africa 63.2 28.6 -32.9 -11.0 15.8 25.4 24.2 20.9 35.9 39.3 35.5
- South Africa -7.2 -5.1 -3.6 2.2 4.9 1.7 2.1 1.6 3.2 2.5 2.4
Emerging and developing economies 1085.6 1035.7 678.7 581.9 714.5 771.7 654.3 629.5 786.7 761.6 726.7
World 648.6 599.0 429.4 414.4 465.2 395.6 219.1 152.2 460.4 399.3 337.4
World excluding EU 467.0 397.3 120.5 93.7 165.7 160.6 43.5 -19.4 179.7 143.7 77.3
World excluding euro area 307.1 218.0 -34.8 -56.4 11.3 -24.5 -159.3 -231.4 3.4 -40.9 -113.8
¹ See note 8 on concepts and sources.

205
European Economic Forecast, Spring 2019

Table 61: World current-account balances (in billions of US dollar, 2013-20) 24.4.2019
Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
forecast forecast
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
EU 277.5 310.7 293.8 328.7 457.6 414.9 367.9 364.5 466.4 441.0 448.2
EU, adjusted¹ 166.7 147.5 135.3 209.4 230.3 217.5 179.2 176.2 206.5 188.0 195.2
Euro area 363.2 409.1 387.9 415.1 495.1 493.9 448.9 441.0 528.3 505.5 512.3
Euro area, adjusted¹ 300.7 340.3 313.0 370.4 409.6 395.3 354.6 346.9 422.5 402.5 409.4
Candidate Countries -68.3 -48.3 -35.0 -36.2 -51.5 -32.1 3.5 -9.6 -55.5 -26.0 -34.1
- Albania -1.4 -1.4 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1
- Montenegro -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -0.9
- North Macedonia -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
- Serbia -2.8 -2.6 -1.4 -1.2 -2.3 -2.6 -3.3 -3.3 -2.8 -3.7 -4.2
- Turkey -63.5 -43.6 -32.0 -33.1 -47.4 -27.5 8.8 -4.1 -50.7 -20.2 -27.7
Iceland 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3
Norway 54.0 53.0 30.8 15.1 22.8 33.5 33.4 34.5 25.5 26.3 27.5
Switzerland 80.0 60.6 76.4 63.3 45.4 72.2 73.7 75.8 73.9 78.9 83.7
Australia -47.9 -43.4 -57.4 -41.2 -35.8 -30.5 -31.7 -31.9 -37.9 -37.0 -36.9
Canada -59.4 -43.2 -55.4 -49.1 -46.4 -45.5 -41.3 -39.4 -43.1 -34.9 -33.2
Japan 45.7 37.1 136.5 196.6 206.5 173.7 178.3 181.3 236.0 232.8 239.5
Korea 77.3 83.0 105.1 97.9 75.2 76.4 72.4 79.5 69.8 69.0 77.0
United States -348.8 -365.2 -407.8 -432.9 -449.1 -488.5 -536.3 -572.0 -492.6 -548.7 -625.6
Advanced economies 107.4 159.4 220.2 280.9 372.4 315.3 264.2 235.8 387.9 351.8 304.4
Emerging and developing Asia 92.9 229.4 311.7 233.8 202.1 -2.6 -11.8 -30.0 -7.5 -91.1 -126.5
- China : 236.0 304.2 202.2 195.1 49.1 43.7 40.9 32.6 -26.0 -56.0
- India -49.1 -27.3 -22.5 -12.1 -38.2 -60.5 -68.5 -78.5 -66.6 -87.9 -95.7
- Indonesia -29.1 -27.5 -17.5 -17.0 -16.2 -31.1 -28.9 -32.1 -27.3 -28.7 -29.3
CIS 14.9 53.7 51.4 2.0 15.5 104.8 81.3 79.3 76.9 69.8 69.9
- Russia 30.7 53.5 66.1 25.8 28.4 109.4 89.8 87.2 88.9 82.9 82.0
- Other CIS -15.7 0.2 -14.7 -23.9 -12.9 -4.7 -8.4 -7.9 -12.0 -13.1 -12.1
Latin America -167.2 -180.7 -167.8 -97.7 -78.6 -121.5 -123.5 -134.9 -104.0 -118.8 -137.8
- Argentina -13.1 -9.2 -17.6 -15.1 -31.6 -28.0 -9.4 -8.2 -19.0 -11.2 -9.1
- Brazil -79.8 -101.4 -54.5 -24.0 -7.2 -14.5 -29.1 -34.0 -19.5 -37.3 -44.4
- Mexico -31.8 -24.8 -30.5 -24.3 -19.4 -22.2 -22.9 -25.2 -18.1 -21.5 -25.9
MENA 366.7 227.2 -81.0 -83.0 29.6 132.3 50.1 29.7 92.6 102.1 79.0
- Saudi Arabia 135.4 73.8 -56.7 -23.8 10.5 72.3 33.0 26.0 64.7 70.0 62.2
Sub-Saharan Africa -23.2 -49.6 -79.1 -40.7 -24.8 -28.1 -38.3 -41.7 -28.8 -32.5 -38.9
- South Africa -21.3 -17.8 -14.6 -8.4 -8.9 -13.4 -12.4 -13.6 -11.5 -12.8 -13.4
Emerging and developing economies 284.1 280.0 35.2 14.3 143.8 85.0 -42.2 -97.6 29.2 -70.4 -154.4
World 391.6 439.3 255.4 295.1 516.2 400.3 222.0 138.2 417.1 281.4 150.0
World excluding EU 114.1 128.7 -38.5 -33.6 58.5 -14.6 -145.9 -226.3 -49.3 -159.6 -298.2
World excluding euro area 28.4 30.2 -132.6 -120.0 21.0 -93.6 -226.9 -302.8 -111.2 -224.1 -362.3
¹ See note 8 on concepts and sources.

Table 62: Crude oil prices, 2013-2020 24.4.2019

Spring 2019 Autumn 2018
forecast forecast
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Annual percentage change (usd) -2.7 -8.5 -46.3 -15.5 21.2 30.7 -3.3 -2.0 37.2 7.4 -4.9
Price per barrel
- Brent (usd) 108.7 99.5 53.4 45.2 54.8 71.5 69.2 67.8 75.1 80.6 76.7
- Brent (euro) 81.9 74.9 48.2 40.8 48.5 60.6 61.3 60.2 63.4 70.0 66.5

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 Statistical Annex

Note on concepts and sources

1. The directorate general for economic and financial affairs (DG ECFIN) Tables 49 - 52, 60 and 61 show also EU and euro-area "adjusted"
produces, under its own responsibility, short-term fully-fledged economic balances. Theoretically, balances of EU and euro area vis-à-vis third
forecasts in Spring and Autumn. These forecasts cover the principal countries should be identical to the sum of the balances of the individual
macroeconomic aggregates for the Member States, the candidate countries in the EU or the euro area. However, intra-EU or intra-euro-area
countries, the European Union as a whole, the euro area and the balances are non-zero because of reporting errors. The creation of the
international environment. internal market in 1993 reduced border controls and formalities, and
accordingly the scope and precision of intra-EU trade coverage.
2. Data for 2018, 2019 and 2020 are forecasts. The source for all tabes is the Typically, intra-EU imports are underestimated compared to intra-EU
European Commission, unless otherwise stated. Historical data for the exports, leading toerestimation of the surplus. For the past the "adjusted"
Member States are based on the European System of Accounts (ESA balances are Eurostat estimates for EU and ECB estimates for the euro
2010). US national accounts are based on SNA 2008, whilst the Japanese area. For the future, they are ECFIN's forecasts based on the
accounts use SNA 1993. extrapolation of the discrepancies observed in 2018.

3. Tables 5 and 6 on domestic demand and final demand respectively,

present data including inventories. 9. Geographical zones are defined as follows :
Euro area :
4. In Tables 17 and 18, the data are based on the national index for USA EA19 (BE, DE, EE, IE, EL, ES, FR, IT, CY, LV, LT, LU, MT, NL, AT, PT, SI,
and Japan. SK, and FI)
European Union :
5. The potential output gap is calculated with reference to potential output EU28 (EA19, BG, CZ, DK, HR, HU, PL, RO, SE, and UK).
as estimated via a production function, where the increase in the capital Candidate countries :
stock and the difference between actual unemployment and the Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey.
NAWRU play a key role. Potential candidates :
Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo.
6. Employment data used in tables 23-29 and 32-33 are based on full-time- Advanced economies :
equivalents (FTEs), where available. Currently, Spain, France, Italy, and EU, candidate countries, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland,
the Netherlands report FTE data. In the absence of FTE data, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, New Zealand,
employment is based on numbers of persons. In the calculation of EU Emerging and developing Asia:
and euro-area aggregates, priority is given to FTE data, as this is All countries in that region except the ones included in the
regarded as more representative of diverse patterns of working time. Advanced economies and the Asian MENA countries.
Latin America :
7. Source: National Accounts (ESA 2010), except for US current-account in All countries in that region.
tables 50, 52, and 61 (Balance of Payments). Discrepancies with balance MENA (Middle East and Northern Africa) :
of payments statistics may arise due to methodological differences and Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq,
revision schedules. Iran, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, United Arab
Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar.
8. EU and euro-area data are aggregated using exchange rates. World Sub-Saharan Africa :
GDP is aggregated using Purchasing Power Standards (PPS). In the tables All countries in that region except the African MENA countries.
on world trade and international payments, the aggregation is carried
out on the basis of current exchange rates.

207