Startup year Terminal year
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Balance Sheet Check OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
Assumptions
Site Traffic (Avg monthly visits)
Email 0 5,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 50,000 60,000
Organic Search 10,000 50,000 100,000 130,000 155,000 170,000 180,000
Paid Search 30,000 20,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
Affiliates 20,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000
Total Monthly Visits 60,000 85,000 125,000 165,000 200,000 235,000 255,000
Growth Rate 41.7% 47.1% 32.0% 21.2% 17.5% 8.5%
Site Traffic (Annual) 12 0
Email 0
Organic Search 30,000
Paid Search 20,000
Affiliates 60,000
Total Annual Visits 110,000 0 0 0 0 0 0
Conversion Rates
Email 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Organic Search 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Paid Search 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
Affiliates 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Total Monthly Visits 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Orders Placed
Email
Organic Search
Paid Search
Affiliates
Total Orders Placed 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Order Details
Average item value (gross) 250 250 250 250 250 250 250
# of items per order 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7
Average markdown 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Average promotion/discount 20% 18% 15% 12% 10% 8% 8%
Cost of Goods Sold (Gross Product Marin) 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%
Average Gross order value
Average Net order value
Customers
Churn Rate 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
Opening active customer base 0
Plus new customers
Subtotal
Less churned customers
Closing customer base
Marketing Expenses
Variable
Email (cost per click) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Organic Search (cost per click) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Paid Search (cost per click) 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.50 3.50 3.75 4.00
Affiliates (cost per click) 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
Average 3.27 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Order Fulfilment
Variable
Freight/shipping per order 12.00 10.00 9.00 9.00 8.00 8.00 7.00
Labor/handling per order 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
Total 17.00 15.00 14.00 14.00 13.00 13.00 12.00
Fixed
Warehouse rent 150,000 150,000 150,000 250,000 250,000 500,000 500,000
General & Administrative
Fixed
Office rent 100,000 100,000 100,000 200,000 200,000 200,000 200,000
Salaries, wages & Benefits 500,000 700,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 3,000,000
Professional fees 100,000 100,000 100,000 200,000 200,000 200,000 200,000
Other 100,000 100,000 200,000 200,000 400,000 400,000 400,000
Total 800,000 1,000,000 1,400,000 1,800,000 2,300,000 2,800,000 3,800,000
Balance Sheet Items
Current Assets
Accounts Receivable Days 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Inventory Days 120 100 90 90 90 90 90
Inventory Turns 365
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable Days 60 50 40 30 30 30 30
Capital Expenditures
Technology Development 300,000 50,000 50,000 500,000 50,000 1,000,000 100,000
Office Equipment 200,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 200,000 100,000 500,000
Acquisitions 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Depreciation
Technology - Straight-line Years 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Office Equipment - Straight-line Years 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Financing
Interest Rate 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Debt Issued (Repaid) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Equity Raised (Repurchased) 5,000,000 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends Paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Valuation
Tax Rate 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
Cost of Capital / Discount Rate 20%
Terminal Value Exit Multiple 8.0x
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow Statement
Supporting Schedules
Customer Metrics
R e v e n u e ( $ m illio n s )
Valuation
M a r g in M a r g in
Charts & Graphs
-$ 1 5 ,0 0 ... -5 0
2 01 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 02 2 0 2 2 02 2 0 2
