LIVE PROJECT

2020 Bihar Election Forecasting

Spotle.ai
Submitted by: Sudiksha Chakraborty and Jyoti Majumder
Assignment 1: Conduct Opinion Polls for Bihar Assembly Elections 2020

Introduction

The project was based on forecasting results for Bihar 2020 Assembly elections. Then a survey was
designed through a questionnaire and was floated to common mass over and around the region of Bihar
mostly and the responses were gathered. It enables to develop and test powerful statistical models for
predicting elections. Based on the survey results, opinion poll was made.

The questionnaire was sent to 200 people. The sample selection was based on the below factors:

1. Location- I tried to cover all constituencies. It allowed me to get 3-4 observations from particular
area.
2. Demographics- I tried to cover people from all age groups, profession and all gender. Since
people from different profession and age group has different expectations from the
government, it gives a clear idea of their views.

Please find the attached excel sheet containing the responses.

Analysis

1. If Assembly elections are held in Bihar tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

The responses clearly portray that BJP has definitely gained popularity over the years and has made a
mark in common mass’ life but the percentage is not such that tables cannot be turned down by the
time of election. If the Mahagatbandhan still continues, then INC, JDU and RJD can give a tough fight to
BJP.
 2. Which party did you vote for in the last assembly elections?

Irrespective of leading the opinion poll and popularity, it seems BJP has lost some preference than
the last assembly elections. This reveals issues are definitely there which has not been looked upon.
However, RJD, JDU and INC are in a better position than last assembly elections.

Voting preference

3. If Assembly elections take place in Bihar tomorrow, then who would you like to see as the
next Chief Minister of the State?
Since most of them preferred Nitesh Kumar, according to this, JDU will win get 63.6% of vote share
and with Nitish Kumar as CM. This can be possible seeing the switch of voters and due to
Mahagatbandhan.

Awareness of initiatives

4. How effective has been the Bihar government’s liquor prohibition policy?

It seems most of the people are somewhat satisfied with this initiative and it has brought some changes
to the environment.

Pre poll approaches of all parties

JDU, RJD and BJP took lot of initiatives to approach people and convince them for voting in last few
months. While JDU was repeatedly advertising through recorded messages, phone calls, radio,
metros. This can be seen as recall value of BJP was fairly high when asked which party approached
them or talked about voting for them.

5. Did a candidate/party worker of the following parties come to your house to ask for your
vote in the last one month?
6. Were you or any of your family members contacted by the following parties through a
phone call or recorded voice or SMS or WhatsApp in the last one month?
Assignment 2: Summarization of Bihar Assembly Elections 2015 Results
The table below shows % of vote for different parties-JDU, RJD, BJP, INC and others(amalgamating
vote shares for all other parties plus NOTA) in 243 constituencies of BIHAR ASSEMBLY.

Constituency INC BJP RJD JDU Others

1 Valmiki Nagar 18.01 0 0 0 81.99
2 Ramnagar 37.53 48.05 0 0 14.42
3 Narkatiaganj 37.25 26.80 0 0 35.93
4 Bagaha 0 44.45 0 39.56 15.99
5 Lauriya 0 40.47 28.07 0 31.46
6 Nautan 0 44.35 0 34.82 20.83
7 Chanpatia 0 39.04 0 38.74 22.22
8 Bettiah 45.26 43.69 0 0 11.05
9 Sikta 0 41.71 0 43.48 14.81
10 Raxaul 0 39.81 37.87 0 22.32
11 Sugauli 0 40.12 35.13 0 24.75
12 Narkatia 0 0 45.96 0 54.04
13 Harsidhi 0 43.07 49.87 0 7.06
14 Govindganj 34.15 0 0 0 65.85
15 Kesaria 0 35.49 47.55 0 16.96
16 Kalyanpur 0 36.94 0 28.46 34.6
17 Pipra 0 38.00 0 35.72 26.28
18 Madhuban 0 43.94 0 32.27 23.79
19 Motihari 0 47.45 36.46 0 16.09
20 Chiraia 0 42.43 39.48 0 18.09
21 Dhaka 0 36.66 46.97 0 16.37
22 Sheohar 0 0 0 29.71 70.29
23 Riga 48.97 34.84 0 0 16.19
24 Bathnaha 35.86 49.11 0 0 15.03
25 Parihar 0 40.72 38.25 0 21.03
26 Sursand 0 0 33.73 0 66.27
27 Bajpatti 0 0 0 43.30 56.7
28 Sitamarhi 0 40.66 49.62 0 9.72
29 Runnisaidpur 0 0 40.52 0 59.48
30 Belsand 0 0 0 27.59 72.41
31 Harlakhi 25.25 0 0 0 74.75
32 Benipatti 41.52 38.01 0 0 20.47
33 Khajauli 0 37.04 43.56 0 19.4
34 Babubarhi 0 0 0 37.67 62.33
35 Bisfi 0 0 44.37 0 55.63
36 Madhubani 0 40.97 45.27 0 13.76
37 Rajnagar 0 46.23 42.20 0 11.57
38 Jhanjharpur 0 40.20 40.73 0 19.07
39 Phulparas 0 32.14 0 40.60 27.26
40 Laukaha 0 30.64 0 43.64 25.72
41 Nirmali 0 33.24 0 47.54 19.22
42 Pipra 0 31.15 54.01 0 14.84
43 Supaul 0 29.84 0 54.69 15.47
44 Triveniganj 0 0 0 57.53 42.47
45 Chhatapur 0 43.71 38.35 0 17.94
46 Narpatganj 0 36.57 51.32 0 12.11
47 Raniganj 0 38.90 0 48.15 12.95
48 Forbesganj 0 46.21 32.64 0 21.15
49 Araria 52.77 0 0 0 47.23
50 Jokihat 0 0 0 58.60 41.4
51 Sikti 0 46.48 0 41.59 11.93
52 Bahadurganj 33.56 24.82 0 0 41.62
53 Thakurganj 0 0 0 41.23 58.77
54 Kishanganj 38.83 33.80 0 0 27.37
55 Kochadhaman 0 24.59 0 39.42 35.99
56 Amour 59.16 28.44 0 0 12.4
57 Baisi 0 0 41.55 0 58.45
58 Kasba 44.74 43.75 0 0 11.51
59 Banmankhi 0 35.82 35.39 0 28.79
60 Rupauli 0 22.79 0 28.13 49.08
61 Dhamdaha 0 0 0 40.15 59.85
62 Purnia 31.70 49.26 0 0 19.04
63 Katihar 0 42.98 0 33.29 23.73
64 Kadwa 35.45 31.79 0 0 32.76
65 Balrampur 0 21.34 0 20.34 58.32
66 Pranpur 22.10 26.71 0 0 51.19
67 Manihari 38.69 0 0 0 61.31
68 Barari 0 34.45 43.14 0 22.41
69 Korha 45.53 42.38 0 0 12.09
70 Alamnagar 0 0 0 45.74 54.26
71 Bihariganj 0 28.36 0 45.26 26.38
72 Singheshwar 0 0 0 49.45 50.55
73 Madhepura 0 29.03 49.52 0 21.45
74 Sonbarsha 0 0 0 59.66 40.34
75 Saharsa 0 32.82 53.03 0 14.15
76 Simri Bakhtiarpur 0 0 0 47.52 52.48
77 Mahishi 0 0 38.77 0 61.23
78 Kusheshwar
Asthan
0 0 0 43.07 56.93
79 Gaura Bauram 0 0 0 42.70 57.3
80 Benipur 0 29.04 0 46.88 24.08
81 Alinagar 0 36.66 48.29 0 15.05
82 Darbhanga Rural 0 0 51.38 0 48.62
83 Darbhanga 0 47.66 43.09 0 9.25
 84 Hayaghat 0 0 0 53.32 46.68
85 Bahadurpur 0 35.04 45.95 0 19.01
86 Keoti 0 41.76 47.14 0 11.1
87 Jale 0 41.69 0 38.59 19.72
88 Gaighat 0 38.68 40.80 0 20.52
89 Aurai 0 36.42 43.44 0 20.14
90 Minapur 0 34.90 49.60 0 15.5
91 Bochaha 0 0 0 26.18 73.82
92 Sakra 0 39.61 47.92 0 12.47
93 Kurhani 0 42.33 0 35.64 22.03
94 Muzaffarpur 0 55.13 0 37.98 6.89
95 Kanti 0 0 26.22 0 73.78
96 Baruraj 0 40.47 43.62 0 15.91
97 Paroo 0 48.21 40.10 0 11.69
98 Sahebganj 0 37.06 43.65 0 19.29
99 Baikunthpur 0 35.11 0 26.29 38.6
100 Barauli 0 40.12 40.45 0 19.43
101 Gopalganj 0 45.49 42.55 0 11.96
102 Kuchaikote 0 0 0 43.28 56.72
103 Bhorey 44.32 35.46 0 0 20.22
104 Hathua 0 0 0 36.52 63.48
105 Siwan 0 35.02 0 32.78 32.2
106 Ziradei 0 25.51 0 29.99 44.5
107 Darauli 0 27.07 25.27 0 47.66
108 Raghunathpur 0 34.67 41.96 0 23.37
109 Daraundha 0 34.95 0 43.67 21.38
110 Barharia 0 0 0 41.96 58.07
111 Goriakothi 0 38.14 42.75 0 19.11
112 Maharajganj 0 32.02 0 45.51 22.47
113 Ekma 0 29.53 0 35.32 35.15
114 Manjhi 20.57 0 0 0 79.43
115 Baniapur 0 35.40 45.87 0 18.73
116 Taraiya 0 33.70 47.88 0 18.42
117 Marhaura 0 35.68 47.51 0 16.81
118 Chapra 0 45.27 38.08 0 16.65
119 Garkha 0 31.30 56.59 0 12.11
120 Amnour 0 29.85 0 25.85 44.3
121 Parsa 0 0 0 55.91 44.09
122 Sonepur 0 31.67 54.87 0 13.46
123 Hajipur 41.79 48.62 0 0 9.59
124 Lalganj 0 0 0 34.39 65.61
125 Vaishali 0 0 0 47.62 52.38
126 Mahua 0 0 43.34 0 56.66
127 Raja Pakar 0 0 45.45 0 54.55
128 Raghopur 0 36.90 49.15 0 13.95
129 Mahnar 0 29.27 0 47.12 23.61
130 Patepur 0 37.57 46.07 0 16.36
131 Kalyanpur 0 0 0 50.40 49.6
132 Warisnagar 0 0 0 54.65 45.35
133 Samastipur 0 34.01 54.56 0 11.43
134 Ujiarpur 0 0 52.24 0 47.76
135 Morwa 0 29.16 0 42.74 28.1
136 Sarairanjan 0 30.87 0 53.23 15.9
137 Mohiuddinnagar 0 14.85 37.83 0 47.32
138 Bibhutipur 0 0 0 39.76 60.24
139 Rosera 52.59 31.46 0 0 15.95
140 Hasanpur 0 0 0 43 57
141 Cheria Bariarpur 0 0 0 50.37 49.63
142 Bachhwara 45.83 0 0 0 54.17
143 Teghra 0 33.39 43.16 0 23.45
144 Matihani 0 36.53 0 48.97 14.5
145 Sahebpur Kamal 0 0 57.12 0 42.88
146 Begusarai 49.21 39.47 0 0 11.32
147 Bakhri 0 21.96 49.26 0 28.78
148 Alauli 0 0 51.57 0 48.43
149 Khagaria 0 0 0 46.43 53.57
150 Beldaur 0 0 0 37.81 62.19
151 Parbatta 0 27.97 0 45.06 26.97
152 Bihpur 0 39.46 48.39 0 12.15
153 Gopalpur 0 37.63 0 41.35 21.02
154 Pirpainti 0 42.29 45.20 0 12.51
155 Kahalgaon 36.68 0 0 0 63.32
156 Bhagalpur 46.24 39.25 0 0 14.51
157 Sultanganj 0 0 0 40.94 59.06
158 Nathnagar 0 0 0 39.16 60.84
159 Amarpur 0 40.24 0 47.89 11.87
160 Dhauraiya 0 0 0 44.41 55.59
161 Banka 0 38.36 35.63 0 26.28
162 Katoria 0 33.55 41.35 0 25.1
163 Belhar 0 34.32 0 44.59 21.09
164 Tarapur 0 0 0 43.62 56.38
165 Munger 0 43.05 45.63 0 11.32
166 Jamalpur 0 0 0 45.68 54.32
167 Suryagarha 0 31.92 50.20 0 17.88
168 Lakhisarai 0 40.79 0 37.27 21.94
169 Sheikhpura 0 0 0 32.86 67.14
170 Barbigha 41.67 0 0 0 58.33
171 Asthawan 0 0 0 44.29 55.71
172 Biharsharif 0 42.73 0 41.42 15.85
173 Rajgir 0 38.12 0 41.75 20.13
174 Islampur 0 30.65 0 46.40 22.95
175 Hilsa 0 0 48.39 0 51.61
176 Nalanda 0 42.93 0 44.78 12.29
177 Harnaut 0 0 0 45.91 54.09
178 Mokama 0 0 0 24.66 75.34
179 Barh 0 44.44 0 38.64 16.92
180 Bakhtiarpur 0 40.11 34.95 0 24.94
181 Digha 0 50.74 0 37.17 12.09
182 Bankipur 32.60 60.19 0 0 7.21
183 Kumhrar 32.37 56.25 0 0 11.38
184 Patna Sahib 0 46.89 45.40 0 7.71
185 Fatuha 0 0 50.51 0 49.49
186 Danapur 0 43.23 40.11 0 16.66
187 Maner 0 37.33 50.05 0 12.62
188 Phulwari 0 0 0 49.77 50.23
189 Masaurhi 0 0 48.26 0 51.74
190 Paliganj 0 28.36 45.08 0 26.29
191 Bikram 54.44 28.80 0 0 16.65
192 Sandesh 0 32.75 49.79 0 17.46
193 Barhara 0 35.26 44.34 0 20.4
194 Arrah 0 44.51 44.94 0 10.55
195 Agiaon 0 0 0
196 Tarari 26.77 0 0 0 73.23
197 Jagdishpur 0 0 33.82 0 66.18
198 Shahpur 0 37.72 47.76 0 14.52
199 Brahampur 0 34.99 52 0 13.01
200 Buxar 41.43 35.09 0 0 23.48
201 Dumraon 0 0 0 47.90 52.1
202 Rajpur 0 29.28 0 47.96 22.76
203 Ramgarh 0 37.20 32.01 0 30.79
204 Mohania 37.93 43.32 0 0 18.75
205 Bhabua 0 34.59 0 29.32 36.09
206 Chainpur 0 33.16 0 17.05 49.79
207 Chenari 38.64 0 0 0 61.36
208 Sasaram 0 36.29 47.56 0 16.15
209 Kargahar 0 0 0 32.08 67.92
210 Dinara 0 0
211 Nokha 0 35.31 51.62 0 13.07
212 Dehri 0 0 33.92 0 66.08
213 Karakat 0 31.08 38.99 0 29.93
214 Arwal 0 28.90 42.62 0 28.48
215 Kurtha 0 0 0 37.79 62.21
216 Jahanabad 0 0 50.87 0 49.13
217 Ghosi 0 0 0 47.58 52.42
218 Makhadumapur 0 0 51.16 0 48.84
 219 Goh 0 35.05 0 30.03 34.92
220 Obra 0 0 34.86 0 65.14
221 Nabinagar 0 27.18 0 31.06 41.76
222 Kutumba 42.74 0 0 0 57.26
223 Aurangabad 41.70 29.64 0 0 28.66
224 Rafiganj 0 0 0 39.47 60.53
225 Gurua 0 39.34 0 34.80 25.86
226 Sherghati 0 0 0 30.11 69.89
227 Imamganj 0 0 0 33.28 66.72
228 Barachatti 0 0 45.42 0 54.58
229 Bodh Gaya 0 0 0 0
230 Gaya Town 34.16 51.82 0 0 14.02
231 Tikari 0 0 0 51.52 48.48
232 Belaganj 0 0 49.38 0 50.62
233 Atri 0 0 38.96 0 61.04
234 Wazirganj 47.36 39.82 0 0 12.82
235 Rajauli 0 42.81 45.81 0 11.38
236 Hisua 0 44.78 0 38.13 17.09
237 Nawada 0 0 50.12 0 49.88
238 Gobindpur 30.58 27.45 0 0 41.97
239 Warsaliganj 0 51.19 0 39.56 9.25
240 Sikandra 42.66 0 0 0 57.34
241 Jamui 0 37.01 42.24 0 20.75
242 Jhajha 0 40.04 0 26.55 33.41
243 Chakai 0 0 31.31 0 68.69

These three parties- INC, JDU and RJD contested elections together as ‘Mahagathbandhan’ and hence
only one of three parties contested from one constituency. The rest two ate mentioned as 0.
For BJP, 0 denotes that BJP did not contest election from a particular constituency.

Win Over Constituencies

226
201
176
151
126
101
76
51
26
1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Others JDU RJD BJP INC

The above chart shows the seats bagged by the major parties-INC,BJP,RJD,JDU.

Sl. No. Constituency Districts Category

1 Valmiki Nagar GEN

2 Ramnagar GEN

3 Narkatiaganj GEN
4 Bagaha Paschim GEN
Champaram
5 Lauriya GEN
6 Nautan GEN
7 Chanpatia GEN
8 Bettiah GEN
9 Sikta GEN
10 Raxaul GEN
11 Sugauli GEN
12 Narkatia GEN
13 Harsidhi GEN
14 Govindganj GEN
15 Kesaria GEN
Purvi Champaran
16 Kalyanpur GEN
17 Pipra GEN
18 Madhuban GEN
19 Motihari GEN
20 Chiraia GEN
21 Dhaka GEN
22 Sheohar Sheohar GEN
23 Riga GEN
24 Bathnaha GEN
Sitamarhi
25 Parihar GEN
26 Sursand GEN
27 Bajpatti GEN
28 Sitamarhi GEN

29 Runnisaidpur GEN
30 Belsand GEN
31 Harlakhi GEN
32 Benipatti GEN
33 Khajauli GEN
34 Babubarhi GEN
35 Bisfi GEN
36 Madhubani Madhubani GEN

37 Rajnagar GEN

38 Jhanjharpur GEN

39 Phulparas GEN
40 Laukaha GEN
41 Nirmali GEN
42 Pipra GEN
43 Supaul GEN
Supaul
44 Triveniganj GEN

45 Chhatapur GEN

46 Narpatganj GEN
47 Raniganj GEN
48 Forbesganj Araria GEN
49 Araria GEN
50 Jokihat GEN
51 Sikti GEN
52 Bahadurganj GEN

53 Thakurganj Kishanganj GEN

54 Kishanganj GEN
55 Kochadhaman GEN
56 Amour GEN
57 Baisi GEN
58 Kasba GEN
59 Banmankhi
Purnia
SC
60 Rupauli GEN
61 Dhamdaha GEN
62 Purnia GEN
63 Katihar GEN
64 Kadwa GEN
65 Balrampur GEN
Katihar
66 Pranpur GEN
67 Manihari SC
68 Barari GEN
69 Korha SC
70 Alamnagar GEN

71 Bihariganj GEN
Madhepura
72 Singheshwar SC

73 Madhepura GEN

74 Sonbarsha SC
75 Saharsa GEN
Saharsa
76 Simri Bakhtiarpur GEN

77 Mahishi GEN

78 Kusheshwar Asthan SC

79 Gaura Bauram Darbhanga GEN

80 Benipur GEN
81 Alinagar GEN
82 Darbhanga Rural GEN

83 Darbhanga GEN

84 Hayaghat GEN

85 Bahadurpur GEN
86 Keoti GEN
87 Jale GEN
88 Gaighat GEN
89 Aurai GEN
90 Minapur GEN
91 Bochaha SC
92 Sakra SC
93 Kurhani GEN
Muzaffarpur
94 Muzaffarpur GEN
95 Kanti GEN
96 Baruraj GEN
97 Paroo GEN
98 Sahebganj GEN

99 Baikunthpur GEN
100 Barauli GEN
101 Gopalganj GEN
Gopalganj
102 Kuchaikote GEN
103 Bhorey SC
104 Hathua GEN
105 Siwan GEN
106 Ziradei GEN
107 Darauli SC
108 Raghunathpur Siwan GEN

109 Daraundha GEN

110 Barharia GEN
111 Goriakothi GEN

112 Maharajganj GEN

113 Ekma GEN
114 Manjhi GEN
115 Baniapur GEN
116 Taraiya GEN
117 Marhaura Saran GEN
118 Chapra GEN
119 Garkha SC
120 Amnour GEN
121 Parsa GEN
122 Sonepur GEN
123 Hajipur GEN
124 Lalganj GEN
125 Vaishali GEN
126 Mahua GEN
127 Raja Pakar Vaishali SC

128 Raghopur GEN

129 Mahnar GEN
130 Patepur SC
131 Kalyanpur SC

132 Warisnagar GEN

133 Samastipur GEN

134 Ujiarpur GEN
135 Morwa Samastipur GEN
136 Sarairanjan GEN

137 Mohiuddinnagar GEN

138 Bibhutipur GEN

139 Rosera SC
140 Hasanpur GEN

141 Cheria Bariarpur GEN

142 Bachhwara GEN

143 Teghra GEN
Begusarai
144 Matihani GEN
145 Sahebpur Kamal GEN

146 Begusarai GEN

147 Bakhri SC
148 Alauli SC
149 Khagaria GEN
Khagaria
150 Beldaur GEN
151 Parbatta GEN
152 Bihpur GEN
153 Gopalpur GEN
154 Pirpainti SC
155 Kahalgaon GEN
Bhagalpur
156 Bhagalpur GEN

157 Sultanganj GEN

158 Nathnagar GEN

159 Amarpur GEN
160 Dhauraiya SC
Banka
161 Banka GEN
162 Katoria SC
163 Belhar GEN
164 Tarapur GEN
165 Munger Munger GEN
Lakhisarai
166 Jamalpur GEN
167 Suryagarha GEN

168 Lakhisarai GEN

169 Sheikhpura GEN

Sheikhpura
170 Barbigha GEN

171 Asthawan GEN

172 Biharsharif GEN

173 Rajgir
Nalanda SC
174 Islampur GEN
175 Hilsa GEN
176 Nalanda GEN
177 Harnaut GEN
178 Mokama GEN
179 Barh GEN
180 Bakhtiarpur GEN
181 Digha GEN
182 Bankipur GEN
183 Kumhrar GEN
184 Patna Sahib GEN
Patna
185 Fatuha GEN
186 Danapur GEN
187 Maner GEN
188 Phulwari SC
189 Masaurhi SC
190 Paliganj GEN
191 Bikram GEN
192 Sandesh GEN
193 Barhara GEN
194 Arrah Bhojpur GEN
195 Agiaon SC
196 Tarari GEN
197 Jagdishpur GEN
198 Shahpur GEN
199 Brahampur GEN
200 Buxar GEN
Buxar
201 Dumraon GEN
202 Rajpur SC
203 Ramgarh GEN
204 Mohania SC
Kaimur
205 Bhabua GEN
206 Chainpur GEN
207 Chenari SC
208 Sasaram GEN
209 Kargahar GEN
Rohtas
210 Dinara GEN
211 Nokha GEN
212 Dehri GEN
213 Karakat GEN
214 Arwal GEN
Arwal
215 Kurtha GEN
216 Jahanabad GEN
217 Ghosi Jahanabad GEN
218 Makhadumapur SC
219 Goh GEN
220 Obra GEN
221 Nabinagar GEN
Aurangabad
222 Kutumba SC
223 Aurangabad GEN
224 Rafiganj GEN
225 Gurua GEN
Gaya
226 Sherghati GEN
227 Imamganj SC

228 Barachatti SC

229 Bodh Gaya SC

230 Gaya Town GEN

231 Tikari GEN
232 Belaganj GEN
233 Atri GEN
234 Wazirganj GEN
235 Rajauli SC
236 Hisua GEN
237 Nawada GEN
Nawada
238 Gobindpur GEN

239 Warsaliganj GEN

240 Sikandra SC
241 Jamui GEN
Jamui
242 Jhajha GEN
243 Chakai GEN

Districts Count of Constituency

Araria 6
Arwal 2
Aurangabad 6
Banka 5
Begusarai 7
Bhagalpur 7
Bhojpur 7
Buxar 4
Darbhanga 10
Gaya 10
Gopalganj 6
Jamui 4
Jehanabad 3
 Kaimur 4
Katihar 7
Khagaria 4
Kishanganj 4
Lakhisarai 2
Madhepura 4
Madhubani 10
Munger 3
Muzaffarpur 11
Nalanda 7
Nawada 5
Paschim Champaran 9
Patna 14
Purnia 7
Purvi Champaran 12
Rohtas 7
Saharsa 4
Samastipur 10
Saran 10
Sheikhpura 2
Sheohar 1
Sitamarhi 8
Siwan 8
Supaul 5
Vaishali 8
 Count of Constituency
2% 3% 2% 1% 2% Araria
3% 2%
3% 3% Arwal
0%
1% 3%
Aurangabad
4% 3%
Banka
2%
4% Begusarai
4%
Bhagalpur
2%
4% Bhojpur
3%
Buxar
2%
5% Darbhanga
2%
1% Gaya
3% 2%
Gopalganj
3%
6% Jamui
2%
2% Jehanabad
1%
4% 2%
2% 4% Kaimur
3% 5% 1%

The chart shows the district-wise breakdown of constituencies. Bihar has 243 Vidhan Sabha
Constituencies distributed evenly almost in 40 districts.

Category Count of Constituency

GEN 209
SC 34

Count of Constituency by Category

250

200

150

100

50

0
GEN SC

Out of the 243 constituencies, 208 are General while rest are reserved for SC to contest.
 Male Female
No. of contestants 3177 273
Elected 215 28

Gender wise candidates

3500 3177
3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500 215 273

28
0
Male Female

No. of contestants Elected

Gender-wise representation gives a clear picture that gender quality has not been maintained in
these elections as out of the total contesting candidates only 7.91% are female candidates. On the
other hand, out of the 243 MLAs, only 11% are female. The ratio is much less compared to male
candidates.

MLA Yadav S S Musli Rajp Koyir Bhumiha Kur Vaish Brahmi Kayas Other
s as C T ms ut is rs mi ya ns ta s
243 61 38 2 24 19 19 17 16 16 10 3 18

Caste & Community of Bihar's MLA

Caste No. % Share
Upper Caste 20.16%
Brahmin 10 4.12%
Bhumihar 17 7.00%
Rajput 19 7.82%
Kayasta 3 1.23%
Backward Class 46.09%
Yadav 61 25.10%
Kurmi 16 6.58%
Vaishya 16 6.58%
Koeri 19 7.82%
SC 38 15.64%
ST 2 0.82%
Muslims 24 9.88%
 Others 18 7.41%

Caste & Community of Bihar's MLA

70 50.00%
60 45.00%
40.00%
50 35.00%
40 30.00%
25.00%
30 20.00%
20 15.00%
10.00%
10 5.00%
0 0.00%

No. % Share

Out of 243 MLAs, only 20% belongs to the upper caste. While almost half of them belong to Backward
classes so much so that every 1 out of 4 MLAs is a Yadav.

Party 2010 Vidhan 2014 Lok Sabha 2015 Vidhan 2019 Lok Sabha
Sabha Election Sabha Election
BJP 37.45% 29.40% 21.81% 23.58%
INC 1.65% 8.40% 11.11% 7.70%
JD(U) 47.33% 15.80% 29.22% 21.81%
RJD 9.05% 20.10% 32.92% 15.36%

Partywise Performance over Past 10 years

50.00%
45.00%
40.00%
35.00%
30.00%
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
2010 Vidhan Sabha 2014 Lok Sabha 2015 Vidhan Sabha 2019 Lok Sabha
Election Election

BJP INC JD(U) RJD

The above graph shows the performance of the mentioned political parties over a span of 10 years in
the past Vidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha elections by their overall vote share.