March 11h 2011
Stocks were hammered on Thursday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling to close
below 12K. The Dow settled at 11,984.61 or falling 1.87% while S&P 500 index also similarly lost
1.89% to finish at 1,295.11. The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite retreated 1.84% as well to
2,701.02.
Out of 30 stocks in the DJIA, only MCD survived the slaughter. CAT led the losers with 3.88% decline,
XOM slipped 3.56%, while MMM fell 3.39%. With most of the Dow components lost gains on
Thursday, this week top gainers are now led by MCD with 3.01% gains, PFE with 2.65% and MRK
with 2.21%. Entering the third week, so far this month DIS has gained 9.32%, while the second-placed
PFE gained 6.67%. Next was CVX with 6.12% gains. At the bottom of the table are CSCO, MSFT,
INTC and JNJ.
US crude oil prices skid 1.6% or $1.68 to $102.70 a barrel on NYMEX after briefly dipped to
$100.62 a barrel. Brent crude also fell; settling 51 cents lower at $115.43 a barrel. Elsewhere, the
gold futures for April delivery settled 1.2% lower at $1,412.50/oz.
Thursday’s woes came from three sources: first in Asia, surprise fall in China’s trade balance; then the
second came from Europe as Moody’s downgraded Spain (again); and finally from the Middle East it
was reported that shots were heard during protests in Saudi Arabia.
Points of Interest
China CPI rose 4.9% in February (YoY), setting up for more monetary tightening in China;
WMT to start building its Express stores, a new format with less than a tenth of its average stores;
HPQ to build data center worth $60 million in Waikato, New Zealand;
US retail sales are expected to show a 1.3% increase in February, up from 0.3% in January;
U. of Michigan sentiment is seen to edge down from 77.5 to 75.8 in March;
Day Ahead
Market will focus on the Middle East’s development, while also keeping an eye on US retail sales
data set to be released later on.
1 .DJI 11,984.61 (-228.48 ● -1.87%) .SPX 1,295.11 (-24.91 ● -0.14%) .IXIC 2,701.02 (-50.70 ● -0.51%)
March 11h 2011
Stock Focus: Alcoa, Inc.
AA
Last Mar 10th Resistances 15.96 16.25 16.94 17.68 22.44
$15.80 3.07% Supports 15.30 14.67 14.30 13.75 12.82
WTD MTD Outlook
5.28% 2.05%
NEGATIVE
YTD 12-Month
2.66% 10.96% Strategy SHORT upticks to $16.25, PT $14.30, risk > $16.94
2 .DJI 11,984.61 (-228.48 ● -1.87%) .SPX 1,295.11 (-24.91 ● -0.14%) .IXIC 2,701.02 (-50.70 ● -0.51%)
March 11h 2011
Stock Focus: Chevron Corp.
CVX
Last Mar 10th Resistances 99.87 100.85 101.64 102.43 103.41
$99.08 3.00% Supports 96.85 95.98 95.60 92.70 90.41
WTD MTD Outlook
2.96% 6.12%
NEUTRAL
YTD 12-Month
8.58% 30.66% Strategy BUY dips to $95.60, PT $103.41, risk < $90.41
3 .DJI 11,984.61 (-228.48 ● -1.87%) .SPX 1,295.11 (-24.91 ● -0.14%) .IXIC 2,701.02 (-50.70 ● -0.51%)
March 11h 2011
Stock Focus: Exxon Mobil Corp.
XOM
Last Mar 10th Resistances 82.86 83.88 84.71 85.54 86.57
$81.38 3.56% Supports 81.00 80.62 78.26 76.60 75.90
WTD MTD Outlook
4.64% 3.03%
NEUTRAL
YTD 12-Month
11.30% 21.50% Strategy BUY dips to $80.62, PT $85.54, risk < $78.26
4 .DJI 11,984.61 (-228.48 ● -1.87%) .SPX 1,295.11 (-24.91 ● -0.14%) .IXIC 2,701.02 (-50.70 ● -0.51%)
March 11h 2011
US Economic Calendar
Date Time Report Period Actual Forecast Previous
7-Mar 3:00 PM Consumer credit Jan $5.01 bln $3.50 bln $4.09 bln
8-Mar 7:30 AM NFIB small business index Feb 94.5 95.0 94.1
9-Mar 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories Jan 1.1% 1.0% 1.0%
10-Mar 8:30 AM Jobless claims 5-Mar 397K 378K 368K
10-Mar 8:30 AM Trade balance Jan -$46.3 bln -$41.5 bln -$40.6 bln
10-Mar 2:00 PM Federal budget Feb -$223 bln n/a -$221 bln
11-Mar 8:30 AM Retail sales Feb - 1.3% 0.3%
11-Mar 8:30 AM Retail sales ex-autos Feb - 0.9% 0.3%
11-Mar 9:55 AM Consumer sentiment March - 75.8 77.5
11-Mar 10:00 AM Inventories Jan - 0.8% 0.8%
11-Mar 10:00 AM Job openings Jan - n/a 3.06 mio
Analysts' Upgrades & Downgrades
Ratings Price Target
Stock Code House
Previous Current Previous Current
IBM IBM Davenport - Buy $175.00 $189.00
Exxon Mobil XOM UBS AG - Neutral - $81.00
n Sector-wide n Upgrade n Downgrade n Initiation
Price Performance - as of Mar 10th 2011
Code Last Dy WTD MTD YTD 12-Mos Code Last Dy WTD MTD YTD 12-Mos
AA 15.80 -3.07% -5.28% -2.05% 2.66% 10.96% JPM 45.53 -2.21% -2.46% 2.22% 7.33% 1.74%
AXP 44.02 -2.29% 1.13% 0.36% 2.56% 6.69% KFT 31.50 -0.54% -0.66% 3.18% -0.03% 4.17%
BA 71.29 -1.11% -1.40% 2.98% 9.24% -1.82% KO 65.29 -0.50% 1.52% 4.95% -0.73% 18.71%
BAC 14.26 -2.26% 0.42% 4.85% 6.90% -20.11% MCD 76.68 1.19% 3.01% 4.64% -0.10% 14.93%
CAT 98.39 -3.88% -3.54% 2.83% 5.05% 56.55% MMM 90.01 -3.39% -0.27% 2.94% 4.30% 7.71%
CSCO 17.92 -1.10% -3.86% -14.38% -11.42% -31.16% MRK 32.90 -1.17% 2.21% -0.51% -8.71% -11.91%
CVX 99.08 -3.00% -2.96% 6.12% 8.58% 30.66% MSFT 25.41 -1.85% -4.29% -8.47% -8.96% -13.25%
DD 52.59 -2.09% -2.74% 4.57% 5.43% 41.22% PFE 19.36 -1.53% 2.65% 6.67% 10.57% 12.89%
DIS 42.47 -1.51% -1.12% 9.32% 13.22% 21.66% PG 61.49 -0.82% -2.15% -4.22% -4.41% -2.81%
GE 20.10 -2.57% -3.46% -0.50% 9.90% 10.44% T 28.61 -0.63% 1.71% 4.07% -2.62% 10.72%
HD 37.07 -1.59% -0.03% 1.01% 5.73% 14.59% TRV 58.52 -1.48% -1.81% 4.86% 5.04% 8.49%
HPQ 41.48 -1.36% -2.81% -8.86% -1.47% -21.96% UTX 80.92 -2.38% -2.94% -0.63% 2.79% 9.93%
IBM 162.02 -2.32% -0.16% 1.76% 10.40% 26.33% VZ 36.40 -0.68% 1.20% 2.16% 1.73% 17.34%
INTC 20.79 -1.93% -4.89% -3.12% -1.14% -6.73% WMT 52.65 -0.04% 1.74% -7.14% -2.37% -5.31%
JNJ 59.61 -1.31% -0.05% -0.67% -3.62% -8.57% XOM 81.38 -3.56% -4.64% 3.03% 11.30% 21.50%
Disclaimer: This report is provided for information purposes only. It is not an offer to sell or to buy any securities. This
report has been prepared based on sources believed to be reliable, but there is no assurance or guarantee regarding its
completeness and accuracy. The author accepts no responsibility or liability arising from any use of the report.
5 .DJI 11,984.61 (-228.48 ● -1.87%) .SPX 1,295.11 (-24.91 ● -0.14%) .IXIC 2,701.02 (-50.70 ● -0.51%)
