May 16th 2011
And the Season Ends…
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at 12,595.75 on Friday, down by 100.17 points or 0.79%.
S&P 500 index also shed 0.81% or 10.88 points to end at 1,337.77 while the NASDAQ composite
finished 34.57 points lower or 1.21% at 2,828.47. The slump followed the worries over the European
debt outlook while the recent monetary tightening in China also dampened the sentiment.
After a volatile week, oil prices settled higher on Friday. Brent crude was up 85c at $113.83 a barrel
after it soared earlier to $114.92, while the US crude remains below$100 as it ended the day at
$99.65, up 68c. The news of Gaddafi might have been wounded were hitting the oil prices initially,
but strong data coming from Europe as well as worries over China stopping its diesel exports to
conserve supply for summer have sent the prices higher again.
Spot gold however, was down 0.7% to $1,492.50 an ounce after it hit the intraday high at
$1,516.40. Gold futures for June delivery also settled lower as it closed at $1,493.60, down $13.20
after being traded between $1,482 and $1,516.40. Strengthening US$ has put a pressure on the
commodities, particularly gold.
The earnings season is set to end next week with the remaining reports will feature HD, HPQ, and
WMT. WMT and HD will provide us with the consumption outlook in the US.
$1.40 $120.00
Est. Est.
$1.20 $100.00
Next Q Next Q
$1.00
$80.00
$0.80
$60.00
$0.60
$40.00
$0.40
$0.20 $20.00
$0.00 $0.00
HD WMT HPQ HD WMT HPQ
EPS estimates (left) and Revenues expectations (right) on HD, WMT and HPQ
European market will also be monitored with the focus on Greek debt decision, whether the EU will
grant it an extension to its loan or not. Most see that a loan extension may not be approved and that
Greek will still eventually default even it the debt is extended. If Greek’s request is denied and that it
turns bankrupt, the financial sector may get the first hit. Overall, it’s a tough situation to call.
1 .DJI 12,595.75 (-100.17 ● -0.79%) .SPX 1,337.77 (-10.88 ● -0.81%) .IXIC 2,828.47 (-34.57 ● -1.21%)
May 16th 2011
Stock Focus: Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.
WMT
Last May 13th Resistances 56.00 56.20 57.12 57.86 61.00
$54.80 0.00% Supports 54.80 54.05 53.45 52.87 52.12
WTD MTD Outlook
1.27% 1.35% POSITIVE
YTD 12-Month PT
3.32% 10.21% $57.12
WMT is set to release its earnings next week. For now, the technical picture remains mixed with MACD
seen struggling to rise back from the recent pressure, and that RSI is seen building up a bearish
divergence pattern. EMAs however, are still rising. Recent foray above $55.75 signaled more upside
potential, but it would take another convincing breakout to the upside to open the door towards its
objective at $57.12. One event that could stage such rally is it earnings announcement. If the result is
below forecast, then the price may be hammered back towards the EMAs at around $53s.
2 .DJI 12,595.75 (-100.17 ● -0.79%) .SPX 1,337.77 (-10.88 ● -0.81%) .IXIC 2,828.47 (-34.57 ● -1.21%)
May 16th 2011
Price Performance - as of May 13th 2011
Code Last Dy WTD MTD YTD 12-Mos
AA 17.10 -0.29% -0.29% 0.59% 11.11% 46.91%
AXP 49.49 -0.10% -1.41% 0.84% 15.31% 24.13%
BA 79.03 -0.48% -0.35% -0.94% 21.10% 23.14%
BAC 11.93 -2.21% -3.09% -2.85% -10.57% -24.21%
CAT 106.33 -2.12% -3.63% -7.87% 13.53% 75.00%
CSCO 16.88 -0.30% -3.87% -3.65% -16.56% -27.12%
CVX 102.39 -0.36% -0.48% -6.44% 12.21% 38.61%
DD 52.91 -1.82% -3.15% -6.83% 6.07% 46.28%
DIS 41.52 -0.14% -3.58% -3.67% 10.69% 24.24%
GE 19.89 -1.24% -0.60% -2.74% 8.75% 21.65%
HD 37.01 -0.75% 0.05% -0.38% 5.56% 9.30%
HPQ 40.41 -1.15% -0.98% 0.10% -4.01% -12.17%
IBM 169.92 -1.35% 0.61% -0.39% 15.78% 35.65%
INTC 23.41 -1.22% 0.69% 1.12% 11.32% 9.29%
JNJ 66.62 -0.85% 2.07% 1.37% 7.71% 14.27%
JPM 43.15 -2.13% -4.20% -5.44% 1.72% 9.02%
KFT 34.89 0.40% 2.38% 3.87% 10.73% 21.99%
KO 68.18 -0.19% 1.91% 1.07% 3.66% 32.65%
MCD 80.74 0.10% 2.59% 3.10% 5.18% 20.74%
MMM 96.01 -0.66% 0.43% -1.23% 11.25% 21.06%
MRK 37.08 -0.32% 1.90% 3.14% 2.89% 10.06%
MSFT 25.03 -1.15% -3.25% -3.43% -10.32% -2.98%
PFE 20.92 0.14% 1.80% -0.24% 19.47% 37.36%
PG 66.86 0.03% 2.44% 3.02% 3.93% 9.45%
T 31.41 -0.73% 0.48% 0.93% 6.91% 29.26%
TRV 62.33 -2.38% -1.73% -1.50% 11.88% 26.00%
UTX 88.98 -0.66% -0.26% -0.67% 13.03% 32.06%
VZ 37.26 -0.45% -0.05% -1.38% 4.14% 35.39%
WMT 55.72 0.00% 1.27% 1.35% 3.32% 10.21%
XOM 80.87 -0.22% -2.20% -8.08% 10.60% 33.76%
3 .DJI 12,595.75 (-100.17 ● -0.79%) .SPX 1,337.77 (-10.88 ● -0.81%) .IXIC 2,828.47 (-34.57 ● -1.21%)
May 16th 2011
Analysts' Upgrades & Downgrades
Code House Ratings PT
CSCO Fetti & Co. Buy $20.50 $23.00
n Reiterate n Upgrade n Downgrade n Initiation
US Economic Calendar
Date Time Report Period Actual Forecast Previous
10-May 8:30 AM Import Price Index Apr 2.2% 1.6% 2.6%
10-May 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories Mar 1.1% 1.0% 1.0%
11-May 8:30 AM Trade deficit Mar -$48.2 bln -$47.0 bln -$45.4 bln
12-May 8:30 AM Jobless claims 7-May 434K 428k 478K
12-May 8:30 AM Retail sales Apr 0.5% 0.7% 0.9%
12-May 8:30 AM Retail sales ex-autos Apr 0.6% 0.7% 1.2%
12-May 8:30 AM PPI Apr 0.8% 0.8% 0.7%
12-May 8:30 AM Core PPI Apr 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
12-May 8:30 AM Inventories Mar 1.0% 0.8% 0.7%
13-May 8:30 AM CPI Apr 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
13-May 8:30 AM Core CPI Apr 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
13-May 8:30 AM Consumer sentiment May 72.4 71.0 69.8
US Economic Calendar
Date Time Report Period Actual Forecast Previous
16-May 8:30 AM Empire state index May 19.7 21.7
16-May 10:00 AM Home builders' index May 17 16
17-May 8:30 AM Housing starts April 570K 549K
17-May 9:15 AM Industrial production April 0.4% 0.8%
17-May 9:15 AM Capacity utilization Apr 77.6% 77.4%
18-May 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes
19-May 8:30 AM Jobless claims 14-May 420K 434K
19-May 10:00 AM Existing home sales Apr 5.25 mln 5.10 mln
19-May 10:00 AM Leading indicators Apr 0.0% 0.4%
19-May 10:00 AM Philly Fed May 20.0 18.5
Disclaimer: This report is provided for information purposes only. It is not an offer to sell or to buy any securities. This
report has been prepared based on sources believed to be reliable, but there is no assurance or guarantee regarding its
completeness and accuracy. The author accepts no responsibility or liability arising from any use of the report.
4 .DJI 12,595.75 (-100.17 ● -0.79%) .SPX 1,337.77 (-10.88 ● -0.81%) .IXIC 2,828.47 (-34.57 ● -1.21%)
