Autumn Randall

Professor Hellmers
ENG 1201-503
7 July 2021
Tornadoes and Climate Change
On May 28, 2019, I was affected by an EF-4 tornado. There was a lot of damage in
the city I live in. Since then, my family and I have been going to the basement a lot due
to tornado warnings. This experience can be frightening for anyone. Scientists and
climate change experts have been searching for relationships between climate change
and tornadoes for years. It has been shown that scientists need more research before
giving a definite answer on whether or no climate change is impacting tornadoes;
however, climate change has been affecting the factors that contribute to tornadoes and
the location of Tornado Alley.
Four main components contribute to unstable conditions in which tornadoes can
form. The first of the four would be the types of instabilities. These instabilities include
convective potential energy, lifted index, total-totals, and more. The next component
would be the rapid change of wind speed and direction. These changes in the wind
must occur with height for mesocyclone to form out of a supercell. The third component
would be the moisture levels in the air. For example, the current Tornado Alley in the
central United States is the perfect drop-off for different types of moistures in the air.
The Gulf of Mexico brings in warm air moisture, the northwest brings in cold air, and the
west mixes in dry air. All these types of air moisture contribute to the type of air that
causes tornadoes. The last component includes a lifting mechanism that happens
when the original storm forms. All these factors contribute to a formation of a tornado.
Also, the formation of a tornado and be put into three steps. All these steps are
produced from a specific type of storm called a supercell storm. First, unstable
conditions push warm, moist air upward. Then, once a storm starts forming from the
supercell cold air wraps around forming a mesocyclone. Lastly, the mesocyclone
intensifies producing rotating winds that form a tornado (“Destructive Vortex”). If these
steps are strong enough, they can from a tornado outbreak that produces multiple
tornadoes in a short amount of time.
Many inconsistent results show if there is an increase, decrease, or no change in the
number of tornadoes since people have noticed the effects of climate change on
weather. Many sources say that currently there is no change in the number of
tornadoes that occur. However, other sources say that there is an increase in
tornadoes because they are occurring daily while opposing critics say that there will be
a decrease in tornadoes. For example, the article called “Is Climate Change Fueling
Tornadoes?” by Bob Berwyn, a reporter for Inside Climate News, states that there might
be an increase in tornadoes and severe weather in the north or east. However, it could
be argued that warmer climate may cause a “reduction in the equator to pole
temperature contrast, the number of tornadoes and severe weather events would
decrease.” The evidence shows that many scientists are unsure what the future of
tornado frequency will hold. It is crucial that research is still being conducted on the
frequency of tornadoes so there can be precautions taken to protect people.
It is still not clear if tornadoes are currently intensifying due to climate change.
There is an issue with the research being collected causing it to be unreliable. This will
be discussed the next couple paragraphs. However, there has been an increase in
tornado outbreaks. Munich Re, a reinsurance company, states that the cost of tornado
damage has increased in the past 40 years. In the 1980s there was an average of less
than $2 billion and an average of $22 billion in 2016 (Berwyn). This increase in the
money needed to repair buildings and replace objects could be caused by multiple
factors. First, it could be because of an increase in the frequency of tornadoes or the
increase of intensity in tornadoes, but this cannot be backed up with evidence. Even
though those ideas cannot be backed up with evidence, the idea that Tornado Alley is
moving to densely populated areas can be supported.
There are many factors that cause data on the relationship between climate change
and tornadoes to lack evidence and cause evidence to be unreliable. One of the
contributing factors is the increase of population and the use of Doppler radar. In this
case the increase of population will be focused on the state of Kansas. The scholarly
article “Analyzing Tornadic Frequency and Regional Climate Change Relationships in
Kansas, 1950-2016,” by Micheal Molloy from the Department of- tornadoes and if they
have touched down. The essay “The Relationship of Large-Scale Atmospheric
Circulation Patters to Tornadoes and the Impacts of Climate Change” by Cameron C.
Lee explains that before the use of Doppler radar “many weak tornadoes could go
unreported if little damage and/or no deaths resulted” (10). The evidence indicates that
before Doppler radar was invented there was not a precise calculation of how many
tornadoes occurred. This makes it extremely hard for scientists to find data that
supports climate change is having an impact on tornadoes.
Fig. 1. In Kansas, there were 590 reported Fig. 2. In Kansas, there were 1,285
tornadoes in the 1950’s (“Analyzing Tornadic reported tornadoes in the 2000’s.
Frequency and Regional Climate Change Both figures represent an increase in
Relationships in Kansas,1950-2016"). tornado frequency (“Analyzing
Tornadic Frequency and Regional
Climate Change Relationships in
Kansas, 1950-2016").
In addition to not having an exact number of tornadoes that have happened
before people have noticed the effects of climate change, there is not enough research
to show climate change impacting tornadoes. A lot of things can contribute to why
climate change researchers do not have much research on the topic. For example,
“comprehensive records” only go back a few decades (Berwyn). The record of reported
tornadoes are so small that it is hard to notice a major impact like scientists point out
with other natural disasters. Scientists say it will take a couple more decades until they
find out if climate change is affecting tornadoes. Also, there is a lot of variability in the
number of tornadoes that happen in different years. This makes it extremely difficult to
see if there is a significant change. Though it is hard for scientists to see if there is a
relationship between the number of tornadoes occurring, they have seen a gradual
increase in the number of tornadoes the United States sees. Not having enough
research can skew data and make it unreliable.
Due to the lack of data, the current studies about tornadoes and climate change
could be unreliable. Secular trends, or non-meteorological factors cause the data to be
inaccurate. To illustrate, an essay states that, “These secular trends could potentially
be problematic when considering the impacts of climate change on tornadoes” (Lee 11).
The evidence implies that secular trends make it hard to see if there really are
tornadoes. Also, the further back the data goes the more unreliable it is. This is
because of the Doppler radar has recently been invented and started identifying and
tracking tornadoes. Many studies about tornadoes and climate change were conducted
from the 1950s to the 1970s. Since Doppler radar was not used then, it is difficult to
trust these studies. Scientists are skeptical over these studies as well. Regardless of
whether climate change is affecting tornadoes, it has been proven that climate change
is affecting the ingredients that form tornadoes.
The yearly number of tornadoes haven been proved unreliable and needs more
research, but the daily totals of tornadoes have greatly increased. This increase in the
number of tornadoes per day has no relationship to the intensity of tornadoes. It cannot
be proven with research, but scientists are hypothesizing that this increased number of
tornadoes daily could be caused by climate change. An articles states that “What has
changed is we have fewer days per year with at least one tornado, but many more days
with many tornadoes, up to 20 or 30” (Berwyn). The article also includes a picture of a
destroyed house. The caption of the picture explains that there was a tornado on May
28, 2019, in Trotwood, Ohio. It also states that the National Weather Service Storm
Prediction Center reported over 500 tornadoes in the month of May (Berwyn). The
evidence shows that scientists have noticed that there is an increase in the number of
tornadoes that the United States see daily. Even though they cannot scientifically prove
that climate change is the culprit behind the increased amounts of tornadoes yet, there
has been consistent patterns.
In addition to the idea that the daily tornado totals are increasing, scientists have
proved that other natural disasters are intensified by climate change. These natural
disasters can range from droughts, heat waves, cold fronts, hurricanes, typhoons, forest
fires, and much more. Tornadoes are one of the few natural disasters that scientists are
uncertain about because of the lack of research. In his essay, Lee explains that
research has determined that climate change is intensifying natural disasters and
weather events such as “heavy precipitation events, extreme droughts, heat waves, and
tropical cyclones” (12). The evidence shows that it is not only natural disasters that are
being affected by climate change. Though flash flooding is a natural disaster that can
also be termed as heavy precipitation, it could also include the idea of more snowstorms
and blizzards. These are just some of the natural disaster's scientists have proved are
being affected by climate change. Since science has proven many natural disasters are
intensifying because of climate change, researchers are skeptical about relationship
between tornadoes and climate change.
Another way climate change is affecting weather events besides natural disasters
would be the increase in ocean and atmospheric temperatures, along with the intensity
of instabilities. These weather events, some of which are the four key components in
the formation of a tornado, go hand in hand with each other. Since climate change is
making the world’s average temperature increase, it creates warm water vapor in the
atmosphere, making unstable conditions for tornadoes. For example, in a PBS News
Hour article “Is Climate Change Making U.S. Tornadoes Worse?” the author Nsikan
Akpan cites Dan Kottlowski, a senior meteorologist from AccuWeather, stating that,
“The water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico have been running warmer than normal,
not only overall during the last several years, but particularly during this time of year —
as we come out of winter into the springtime.” He then goes on to explains that the
warmer water will intensify sever weather and cause the severe weather to come earlier
in the season (Akpan). This evidence implies that the increase in temperatures could
cause deadly storms in intensify and cause an earlier season for sever weather,
especially in the South where the ocean meets land. Instead of only affecting the
factors that create tornadoes, climate change is also affecting thunderstorms. An article
states that Gensini, an atmospheric scientist, has found that there is an increase in
hailstorms like there is an increase with the number of tornadoes per day. Tippett, a
climate change specialist has also found specific increases in tornadoes and
thunderstorms like Gensini has (Akpan). This could contribute to why so many severe
thunderstorms could turn into tornado watches/warnings.
The topic of where the boundaries of Tornado Alley is located can depend on what
region experiences the most intense tornadoes or a higher frequency of tornadoes.
Currently, Tornado Alley is in the central United States. Originally these states included
Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas, South Dakota, Iowa, and Nebraska.
Regardless of these opinions, scientists have noticed movement in the boundaries of
Tornado Alley. The movement of Tornado Alley and the impact climate change is
making on it can be supported with data from a lot of reliable sources and studies.
There are three regions that could become the new Tornado Alley. Scientists have
noticed a northward shift, an eastward shift, and a southward shift. The south is like
Tornado Alley; however, it is named Dixie Alley because the south’s peak for tornadoes
is through fall and winter. This shift in Tornado Alley can put a lot of people at risk. An
article states that “Even if the overall number of tornadoes doesn’t increase, the shift
toward the southeast, toward areas that are more populated than the southern plains,
would put more people in harm’s way” (Berwyn). The evidence indicates that even
though there is no risk for an increase in tornadoes, the types of tornadoes that have
caused extreme amounts damage could move to areas with many people. This idea is
extremely concerning to a lot of people.
 There are many reasons that Tornado Alley is moving and the fluctuation between
warm and cold climate is one of them. In the United States, Tornado Alley is moving
because of the increase of warming temperatures. The scholarly article “Geographic
Shift and Environmental Change of U.S. Tornado Activities in a Warming Climate,” says
that “the period of 1989-2018 are warmer than those during the period of 1959-1988”
(Cao et al. 6). The evidence hints that the climate of the United States has been
gradually warming over the years. The scholarly literature goes on to explain that when
the climate was cooler tornado activity center were in the central United States, the
current Tornado Alley, while in the more recent years with warmer temperatures
Tornado Alley moved to the east, northeast, and southeast (Cao et al. 6). To dig
deeper, there is proof that with warming temperatures, Tornado Alley will move to more
densely populated areas in the United States. Even though, there is no trend between
climate change and the frequency and intensity in tornadoes, it will move the areas
where a lot of damage could be done.
In addition to the warming temperatures changing the boundaries of Tornado Alley,
the atmospheric temperatures are also causing it to move away from central United
States. A study about climate change affecting Tornado Alley suggested that pressure
differences were affecting the moving boundaries. This difference was caused by the
air from the Gulf of Mexico. This air just affected the southern part of the United States.
The warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico fueled the convection for the new
Tornado Alley. A scholarly article states that that Gulf of Mexico produces moist air that
has a “critical role in the transport of warm, moist air by the southerly flow in the lower
troposphere to fuel convection in the new Tornado Alley” (Cao et al. 9). The evidence
conveys that the warming waters in the Gulf of Mexico is affecting the movement of
Tornado Alley. One of the main reasons that Tornado Alley is moving is because of the
heat. Central United States is known for its dry and warm climate, while up north and to
the east is known for its cold winters and warm summers. It is extremely abnormal for a
major increase in temperatures in some of these areas. With this new and bigger
source of moist air, it is possible that Tornado Alley can and will move in the future.
Even though scientists have confirmed that Tornado Alley is moving due to climate
change, some believe that Tornado Alley will stay where it has always been. An article
states that, “Regardless of the effects of global warming, the central U.S. will continue to
be a hotbed of severe storms that spawn tornadoes” (Berwyn). The evidence shows an
opposing viewpoint towards the idea that climate change is moving towards the east. It
says that the central U.S. will still be affected by tornadoes. This could be supported by
the idea that the central United States will remain a perfect drop-off point for all the
ingredients that form tornadoes. It could also suggest that the central U.S. will remain
Tornado Alley, but expand towards the east, north, or south. Even though there are
multiple viewpoints on this topic it is important to stay informed.
It is essential that people must be educated about the dangers of tornadoes. While
it is hard to say if the number of tornadoes will increase because of climate change
scientists are for sure Tornado Alley will move. Since research suggests that some of
the worst tornadoes are heading for the most populated areas of the United States. It is
important to take proper precautions and develop stronger building to survive the lasting
impacts of climate change. Regardless of others’ viewpoints and if climate change is
really affected by tornadoes, it is crucial that people stay informed on the effects of
climate change. These affects could make life changing impacts on people.
In conclusion, I can be more aware of how climate change will be affecting
tornadoes and Tornado Alley from now on. I will be able to educate myself, family, and
friends on the changes climate change will make on our weather. Scientists have
proved that climate change will not impact the intensity, nor the frequency of tornadoes,
but climate change will affect the boundaries of Tornado Alley.

Works Cited
Akpan, Nsikan. “Is climate change making U.S. tornadoes worse?” PBS. 5 Mar. 2019,
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/is-climate-change-making-u-s-tornadoes-
worse. Accessed 28 June 2021.
"Destructive Vortex." Tribune Content Agency Graphics, 2021. Gale In Context:
Opposing Viewpoints, link.gale.com/apps/doc/XMZZQC518450618/OVIC?
u=dayt30401&sid=bookmark-OVIC&xid=6000fb63. Accessed 28 June 2021.
Berwyn, Bob. “Is Climate Change Fueling Tornadoes?” Inside Climate News, David
Sassoon and Stacy Feldman, 30 May 2019,
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/30052019/tornado-climate-change-
connection-science-research-data/. Accessed 28 June 2021.
Lee, Cameron. The Relationship of Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns to
Tornadoes and the Impacts of Climate Change. Kent State University, Aug.
2010. EBSCOhost, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?
acc_num=kent1274371690. Accessed 28 June 2021.
Molloy, Michael, and Paul, Bimal. “Analyzing Tornadic Frequency and Regional Climate
Change Relationships in Kansas, 1950-2016.” EBSCOhost, vol. 59, no. 2, 2018,
pp. 103-115. Academic Search Complete, https://eds-b-ebscohost-
com.sinclair.ohionet.org/eds/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?vid=5&sid=577e0a46-1566-
4086-9595-60e84b4d3122%40sdc-v-sessmgr01. Accessed 28 June 2021.
Zuohao Cao, et al. “Geographic Shift and Environment Change of U.S. Tornado
Activities in a Warming Climate.” Atmosphere, vol. 12, no. 567, Apr. 2021, p. 567.
EBSCOhost, doi:10.3390/atmos12050567.