A PANDEMIC UNFOLDS
Stage 2 By 12 March 2020, there
A pandemic unfolds were over 120,000 cases
and over 4,600 deaths
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A PANDEMIC UNFOLDS
Stage 2
COVID-19 spreads outside China
CONFIRME D CASE S IN CONFIRME D CASE S IN
THE ISLAMIC RE PUBLIC CONFIRME D CASE S IN
THE RE PUBLIC OF KORE A
OF IRAN ITALY
6000 2500
Number of confirmed cases
Number of confirmed cases
5000 4812 1600 1501 2036
2000
Number of confirmed cases
1400
4000
1200 1500
3000 1000 978
800 1000
2000 888
1766 600
1000 500
400 388
31 76 322
0 200
43 0
3
2
0
1-…
3-…
20-…
22-…
24-…
26-…
28-…
25-Feb
21-Feb
23-Feb
27-Feb
29-Feb
2-Mar
• Mass gatherings such as religious events in the city of Daegu in South Korea, religious gatherings in Qom,
Iran and the Champions League football match in Bergamo, Italy play a key role in the spread of COVID-19
• The case fatality ratio is higher in Italy than was reported in China. Early information that older people are at
higher risk of severe disease is reinforced
• On 11 March 2020, WHO characterizes the outbreak as a pandemic
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A PANDEMIC UNFOLDS
Stage 2
Four scenarios for COVID-19 response
1 2 3 4
No reported Sporadic Cluster Community
cases cases of cases transmission
Stop transmission Slow transmission, reduce case
& prevent spread numbers & end community
outbreaks
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A PANDEMIC UNFOLDS
Stage 2
In many countries, spread of COVID-19 leads to community transmission
• ‘Flattening the curve’ is important as in every country, there are limited numbers of
hospitals, nurses and doctors
• The capacity of the health system can be exceeded if too many people seek healthcare at
the same time
• Testing, isolating positive cases,
contact tracing and PHSM are
important to flattening the curve
• Some countries manage to stop
transmission with control
measures
• Many countries close schools,
shops, workplaces, bars,
restaurants as well as borders
and ask people to stay home to
limit the spread of the virus
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A PANDEMIC UNFOLDS
Stage 2
Implementation of Public Health & Social Measures
WHAT HOW
Personal protective Social distancing measures
measures ➢ Contact tracing
➢ Hand hygiene ➢ Isolation of sick
➢ Respiratory individuals
etiquette ➢ Quarantine of exposed
individuals
➢ Face masks
➢ School measures /
closures
➢ Workplace measures /
Travel-related closures
measures ➢ Avoiding crowding
➢ Travel advices
➢ Travel restrictions Environmental measures
➢ Border closure ➢ Surface and object
➢ Entry and exit cleaning
screenings ➢ Increased ventilation
https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/329438/9789241516839-eng.pdf?ua=1
Author: Ian M Mackay, PhD (EIC) https://virologydownunder.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/SwissCheese-ver3.0_MUG-version.png#main
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A PANDEMIC UNFOLDS
Stage 2
Health systems are under pressure even in
wealthy countries
• Hospitals and health workers face rising demand to attend to a
growing number of COVID-19 patients
• Materials are in short supply:
➢ Personal protective equipment
➢ Oxygen and ventilators
➢ COVID-19 diagnostic tests Photo: WHO
• Health workers are affected, of all detailed case reports submitted to WHO by October 2020,
14% of the cases are health workers. Capacity building and access to adequate personal
protective equipment & measures lead to the decrease of this percentage.¹
• Usual health care is cancelled or postponed with a major impact on other endemic or
chronic diseases as well as on preventive activities such as routine immunization
¹ Globally aggregated weekly surveillance data based on cases notified to WHO
https://www.who.int/fr/news/item/17-09-2020-keep-health-workers-safe-to-keep-patients-safe-who
https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/336265
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THE PANDEMIC ACCELERATES
The epicentre moves from
Stage 3 Europe to the Americas
The pandemic accelerates By 1 July 2020, there were over
10.3 million cases and over
503,000 deaths in 215 countries
or areas and two cruise ships
Number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases by date reported to WHO and region
Source: WHO
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THE PANDEMIC ACCELERATES
Stage 3
Beyond the health crisis: impact on
all of society
• National restrictions have a huge impact on businesses
and individuals lose jobs
• The travel sector is greatly affected by international
movement restrictions Inside Chicago O’Hare International Airport, United States of America
• Pressure mounts to re-open societies, including schools to
minimize social and economic damage
Countries start re-opening societies
The ‘first wave’ passes in countries first affected which
see cases declining
Some country borders re-open and restrictions are
eased, in particular during holidays in the northern
hemisphere
Source: www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06/imf-lockdown-recession-covid19-coronavirus-economics-recession/
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