Week Moving Averages Errors

3 month 5 month 7 month 3 month 5 month

18
7 month
Week Demand Forecast alpha 0.1

1 100
2 125
3 90
4 110
5 105
6 130
7 85
8 102
9 110
10 90
11 105
12 95
13 115
14 120
15 80
16 95
17 100
Year Demand (In thousands of units)
1 1000
2 1300
3 1800
4 2000
5 2000
6 2000
7 2200
8 2600
9 2900
10 3200

11
12
13
Year Quarter Demand
1 1 520
2 730
3 820 Demand
4 530 1000
2 1 590 900
2 810 800
3 900 700
4 600 600
3 1 650 500
2 900 400
3 1000 300
4 650 200
4 1 100
2 0
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
3
4
Demand

2 2.5 3 3.5
 Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
1 520 730 820 530 2600
2 590 810 900 600 2900
3 650 900 1000 650 3200
Total 1760 2440 2720 1780 8700

Qtr Avg 586.67 813.33 906.67 593.33 725

SI 0.81 1.12 1.25 0.82

Deseasonalized Data
t
Year Quarter Demand
1 1 1 643 Year
2 2 651 1
3 3 656 2
4 4 648 3
5 2 1 729
6 2 722
7 3 720 900
8 4 733 800
f(x) = 16.814685314
9 3 1 803 700 R² = 0.89049148837
10 2 802 600
11 3 800 500
Axis Title

400
12 4 794
300
13 4 1 834
200
14 2 851 100
15 3 868 0
16 4 885 0 2 4 6
Axis Titl
seasonalized Demand

13 4 1 675
14 2 955
15 3 1086
16 4 724
 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
643 651 656 648
729 722 720 733
803 802 800 794

Chart Title
900
800
f(x) = 16.8146853146853 x + 615.787878787879
700 R² = 0.890491488377087
600
500
Axis Title

Column D
400 Linear (Column D)
300
200
100
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Axis Title

Intercept 615.787879
Slope 16.8146853