IS 2022 The European Year of Youth For Real?
IS 2022 The European Year of Youth For Real?
R E S E A R C H PA P E R
                           THE EUROPEAN
                           YEAR OF YOUTH
                           FOR REAL?
                           Labour market participation of young
                           people in the EU during the post-covid
                           era: facts and challenges
                            Author: Alessandra Frassetto
                            YEAR OF YOUTH FOR REAL?
                   IS 2022 THE EUROPEAN YEAR OF YOUTH FOR REAL?
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                                                                  ABSTRACT
                                                                  Covid-19 crisis appeared to have revolutionized employers and employees’ working lives,
                                                                  leading to systemic changes, both positive and negative. In particular, the pandemic severely
                                                                  affected the labour market around the world impacting on young people more than other
                                                                  age groups. This paper is focused on present and future generations. Young workers,
                                                                  young students, recent graduates, young people in NEET 1 situation and vulnerable ones:
                                                                  the employment losses they faced translated into a long-term inactivity since the pandemic
                                                                  outbreak in 2020. Data speaks out: according to the International Labour Organization, the
                                                                  global employment loss between 2019 and 2020 was estimated at 8.7% for young people,
                                                                  compared with 3.7% for adults. This short paper will set out the EU policy context in the
                                                                  framework of 2022, which has been designated by European Commission President Ursula
                                                                  von der Leyen as the European Year of Youth:
                                                                   “[…] From climate to social to digital, young people are at the heart of our policymaking
                                                                    and political priorities. We vow to listen to them, as we are doing in the Conference on
                                                                  the Future of Europe, and we want to work together to shape the future of the European
                                                                      Union. A Union that is stronger if it embraces the aspirations of our young people -
                                                                                              grounded in values and bold in action.2”
                                                                  and training centres to accompany students to the employment world through a labour
                                                                  market-oriented approach in the last stages of the education. Last but not least, attention
                                                                  will be also given to a critical category in the context: young people in NEET situation.
                                                                  In a highly dynamic and competitive labour market, investing in people and their skills and
                                                                  competences is key, especially when disruptions such as the crisis emerged from COVID-19
                                                                  are likely to occur. Which are the possible responses for unemployment and the future labour
                                                                  force? At the same time, which are the next steps in the EU-level policy framework?
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                                                                  1
                                                                      The acronym NEET stands for Not in Employment, Education or Training.
                                                                  2
                                                                      European Commission, Commission kick-starts work to make 2022 the European Year of Youth,
                                                                      Press Release, (October 2021) https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_21_5226
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                            YEAR OF YOUTH FOR REAL?
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                                                                  The aftermath of the 2008-2013 crisis made the EU unemployment rate reaching alarming
                                                                  levels, soaring to even higher degrees in some Member States and revealing how vulnerable
                                                                  young people can be to economic recession, compared to other age groups. During that
                                                                  period, the overall youth unemployment rate amounted to 40% in many EU countries, hitting
                                                                  young people not in employment, education or training (NEETs) with a share of 16% of the
                                                                  entire EU population aged 15-29 in the EU. Therefore, it is intuitively understandable how this
                                                                  scenario led to economic and social disruptions, cutting youth outside the labour market and
                                                                  education, with a loss costing €153 billion a year.4 With the COVID-19 pandemic, discrepancies
                                                                  and inequalities were encountered in both the education and employment areas, being strictly
                                                                  interconnected. Those who were in education or training at the time of the pandemic saw their
                                                                  schooling interrupted, often needing to catch up, while recent graduates not always found
                                                                  employment. Furthermore, many of those who were in employment experienced a job loss. If
                                                                  compared, the 2008-2013 and the pandemic crisis appear to present some similarities in trends:
                                                                  is history repeating itself? To what extent the pandemic affected young people and which have
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                                                                  been the most effective solutions? Can existing measures being further reinforced to give a
                                                                  boost to the economic and social recovery? Before providing answers to these questions, it can
                                                                  be appropriate to briefly investigate and compare the labour market setting in the pre- and
                                                                  post-covid era, relying on scientific evidence.
                                                                  The International Labour Organization (ILO) identified three main reasons in relation to the
                                                                  issue at stake, two of which are essential for our assessment:
                                                                  3
                                                                      Eurostat, Unemployment statistics, (March 2022) https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/
                                                                      index.php?title=Unemployment_statistics#Youth_unemployment
                                                                  4
                                                                      M. Mascherini, E. Sándor, Is history repeating itself? The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on youth,
                                                                      Eurofound, (May 2020) https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/blog/is-history-repeating-itself-the-
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                                                                      impact-of-the-covid-19-crisis-on-youth
                                                                  5
                                                                      International Labour Organization, An update on the youth labour market impact of the
                                                                      COVID-19 crisis, (June 2021) https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_emp/documents/
                                                                      briefingnote/wcms_795479.pdf
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                            YEAR OF YOUTH FOR REAL?
                   IS 2022 THE EUROPEAN YEAR OF YOUTH FOR REAL?
                                                                  dropped to a record low of around 14% in 2019, but the coronavirus pandemic pushed it
                                                                  up to 18.2% in 2021. However, slight signs of improvement have been recently observed,
                                                                  with youth unemployment down to 17.3% in May 2021.
Youth unemployment rates, EU and EA, seasonally adjusted, January 2008 - April 2022
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
                                                                  13
                                                                       I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
                                                                         2008        2009        2010        2011        2012        2013        2014        2015        2016        2017        2018        2019        2020        2021 2022
Euro area, seasonally adjusted serie EU, seasonally adjusted serie Source: Eurostat (online data code: une_rt_m)
                                                                  As the graph above shows, in April 2022, the youth unemployment rate was 13.9 % both
                                                                  in the EU and in the euro area: compared with the previous year, youth unemployment
                                                                  decreased by 685 thousand units in the EU and by 555 thousand in the euro area.
                                                                  When it comes to unemployment, adult people can normally benefit from social protection
                                                                  measures at national level in order to avoid experiencing social exclusion and reach extreme
                                                                  poverty conditions, or at least to mitigate the negative impact. In the case of young people,
                                                                  having access to financial support for unemployment or for being outside the labour
                                                                  market is of vital importance not only for their wellbeing, but especially for their future and
                                                                  independency. Unemployment benefits are usually the most common means designed to
                                                                  provide income support, taking the form of unemployment insurance or unemployment
                                                                  assistance, with eligibility conditions varying across countries and reflecting into a lack of
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                            YEAR OF YOUTH FOR REAL?
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                                                                          • The link between the duration of the benefit and the amount of time over which
                                                                            contributions have been paid.
                                                                          • Benefits being often calculated on previous earnings on one side and the
                                                                            concentration of young people in low-paid jobs (if not in undeclared work).
                                                                          • The receipt of unemployment benefits usually subject to strict conditions.
                                                                          • Complexity of applicable rules, stricter rules for self-employed, difficulty in accessing
                                                                            information etc.6
                                                                  Although employment and youth policies are under the responsibility in the hands of
                                                                  Member States, numerous and well documented initiatives have been launched at the EU
                                                                  level with the aim to complement national policies and contribute to the creation of a more
                                                                  social Europe. This support has to do with funding youth employment programmes, the
                                                                  improvement of quality of training and apprenticeships, education, job opportunities and
                                                                  volunteering projects.
                                                                  Here follow some of the EU-level concrete initiatives for pushing youth employment and
                                                                  protection:
                                                                  6
                                                                      D. Ghailani, R. Peña-Casas, P. Ragazzoni, Access to social protection for young people.
                                                                      An analysis of policies in 35 countries, European Social Policy Network (ESPN), European
                                                                      Commission, (2021), pp.30-32, See https://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?langId=en&catId=1135
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                                                                  7
                                                                      European Parliament, Covid-19: how the EU fights youth unemployment, (October 2020) https://
                                                                      www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/headlines/society/20200709STO83004/covid-19-how-the-eu-fights-youth-
                                                                      unemployment
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                                                                      Ibidem
                                                                  9
                                                                      European Commission, European Skills Agenda, https://ec.europa.eu/social/main.
                                                                      jsp?catId=1223#:~:text=The%20European%20Skills%20Agenda%20is,in%20the%20European%20
                                                                      Green%20Deal
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                                                                           • The establishment of a European Education Area: with its formal creation in 2017
                                                                             and the first packages of measures adopted in 2018, the EEA aims at building a
                                                                             more resilient and inclusive education and training systems in the framework of the
                                                                             European Pillar of Social Rights.10
                                                                                 • International opportunities such as:
                                                                                 • Erasmus+ programme
                                                                                 • European Solidarity Corps11
                                                                                 • ALMA (Aim, Learn, Master, Achieve): the brand new initiative launched
                                                                                    by the European Commission to be formally implemented in the months to
                                                                                    come, aiming at offering disadvantaged young people not in employment,
                                                                                    education or training (NEETs) the opportunity to embark on a work-related
                                                                                    learning experience in another EU Member State.12
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                                                                  10
                                                                       European Commission, European Education Area explained, https://education.ec.europa.eu/about/
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                                                                       eea-explained
                                                                  11
                                                                       See https://europa.eu/youth/solidarity/mission_en
                                                                  12
                                                                       Read more about the ALMA initiative https://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=1549&langId=en
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                                                                  A general decline in labour market engagement among young people is also partly due
                                                                  to the fact that young people spend more years in education compared to previous
                                                                  generations, which helps ensuring that the future labour force will be better skilled and
                                                                  capable to adapt to transformations the world of work is bringing about by modern
                                                                  technologies. At the same time, shortcomings concerning the issue at stake can be
                                                                  identified, beyond policy-related issues, in specific areas of our societies such as the
                                                                  education system in general. Figures on youth unemployment show that in some national
                                                                  contexts, current education systems appear not to adequately prepare young people
                                                                  for the future (often due to lack of resources or projects implementation), especially
                                                                  when it comes to make the jump into the employment world. It is important that an
                                                                  institution like the school makes sure that the transition from education to work is
                                                                  smooth and also able to highlight the risks of being neither in employment nor in
                                                                  education or training, thus intervening at an earlier stage: how? Or rather, how to
                                                                  avoid the majority of the young population falling into a situation of labour market
                                                                  exclusion? Education (schools, vocational education and training centres, universities
                                                                  etc.) must be observed as a multifaceted and multifunctional system, beyond its
                                                                  role of provider of general knowledge and hard skills. It must function as promoter of
                                                                  integral human development of the young persons, preparing them to participate
                                                                  and actively contribute to life in society and democracy. In doing so, in order to
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                                                                  “The persistently high share of young people who are neither in employment nor in
                                                                  education or training in the EU may mean that employers recruiting in EU labour markets
                                                                  have a wide choice of potential candidates, although the high share may reflect labour
                                                                  market mismatches, for example geographically or in terms of skills. Some employers criticise
                                                                  the lack of basic skills that some young people have when they leave the education system,
                                                                  as well as their under-developed life skills (communication and presentational skills,
                                                                  ability to work in a team, problem-solving skills), or their lack of work experience
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                                                                  and knowledge in relation to their chosen profession. With a surplus of labour, employers
                                                                  may prefer to recruit young people who have completed a tertiary level of education or an
                                                                  apprenticeship.”
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                                                                  In highly dynamic and competitive current labour markets, investing in people’s skills and
                                                                  competences is undoubtedly a key priority. But which skills and for which jobs? This question
                                                                  is central in national, European and international debates. Adjusting and anticipating
                                                                  changes that affect our economies and societies and, therefore the labour market, is of the
                                                                  outmost importance for policy makers today.
                                                                  Skills and training are two critical aspects walking hand-in-hand and complementing each other
                                                                  in both employment and education. Current education systems appear to be lacking in training
                                                                  experience to be offered in curricula: deficiency of skills and training will come with a consequent
                                                                  mismatch between demand and supply in the labour market. Notably, a gap has been identified
                                                                  between what enterprises demand and what the labour market is capable to offer.
                                                                             the same time, guaranteeing at the EU level specific digital training aimed at up-
                                                                             skilling and re-skilling both for newcomers in the world of employment and for
                                                                             workers to remain competitive in the labour market.14
                                                                           • Green skills: Cedefop defined in 2012 green skills as “the knowledge, abilities,
                                                                             values and attitudes needed to live in, develop and support a sustainable and
                                                                             resource-efficient society”15. Moreover, it also identified the needs for educational
                                                                             institutions and firms to gear up to provide new skills for the new occupations and
                                                                             sectors emerging from the green economy, retraining and realigning skills in sectors
                                                                             that will decline as a result.16
                                                                           • Future-proof jobs and skills training for the green and energy transition are among
                                                                             the benefits identified by the European Green Deal (EGD). More specifically, it is
                                                                             the European Climate Pact (launched by the European Commission and part of the
                                                                             EGD itself) that is helping the EU to meet its goal to be the first climate-neutral
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                                                                  13
                                                                       Referred in the recommendations as critical thinking, result-oriented, dialogue, resilience etc.
                                                                  14
                                                                       Conference on the Future of Europe, European Citizens’ Panel 1: “Stronger economy, social
                                                                       justice and jobs / Education, culture, youth and sport / Digital transformation” Recommendations
                                                                       (2021)
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                                                                  15
                                                                       OECD & CEDEFOP, Greener Skills and Jobs – Highlights, (n.d. no date) https://www.oecd.org/cfe/
                                                                       leed/Greener%20skills_Highlights%20WEB.pdf
                                                                  16
                                                                       Ibidem
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                            YEAR OF YOUTH FOR REAL?
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                                                                  As pointed out in the first section of the paper, during the coronavirus pandemic young people
                                                                  not only experienced interruption in schooling, but also in training, with traineeships offers
                                                                  completely frozen due to economic damages within enterprises and general restrictions for
                                                                  the containment of the virus. Together with digital skills concerns, reflections emerged with
                                                                  respect to the necessity of ensuring quality training resilient enough to overcome future crisis.
                                                                  “We recommend that in case of a serious crisis (e.g. health crisis, war, etc.) well prepared
                                                                  plans with detailed scenarios are ready to deploy in a flexible way to minimise the impact
                                                                  on our youngsters in their studies, vocational training, mental wellbeing etc. By impact we
                                                                  mean: higher cost of studying or training, obliged prolongation of studies, internships that
                                                                  could not be carried out, increase of mental health problems. The scripts have to be rolled
                                                                  out to minimise the impact on youngsters and their transition to the labour market.
We recommend this because the position of the youngsters is very vulnerable in times of crisis.”
                                                                  In a nutshell, education systems should take bolder action for promoting and guaranteeing
                                                                  quality trainings striving for:
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                                                                        • Provide an overview about future career prospects, with the objective to understand
                                                                          which is the future path they will walk through in terms of studies continuation or
                                                                          employment.
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                                                                              • a substantial portion of young people still involved in the education system (school,
                                                                                college, university, other higher education establishment or training).
                                                                              • a group of young people neither in employment (unemployed or outside the
                                                                                labour force), nor in education or training.
                                                                  The acronym NEET stands for not in employment, education or training and is a concept that
                                                                  allowed policy makers to better address the disjunction between young people and the labour
                                                                  market, focusing on all those who find themselves outside of it and also capturing the modern
                                                                  school-to-work transition. More specifically, these young people may be subdivided into those
                                                                  who are actively looking for job opportunities and those who do not have a job, not actively
                                                                  seeking it (often owing to discouragement or because of ongoing studies completion). At the
                                                                  same time, NEET is a broad category that includes a heterogeneous population made up of
                                                                  both vulnerable and non-vulnerable young people that often experience disadvantages such
                                                                  as low level of education, poverty, difficult family background etc.17
                                                                  Young people (aged 15-29) neither in employment nor in education and training, by sex, 2021
                                                                  26
                                                                                              Men
                                                                  24
                                                                  22
                                                                                              Women
                                                                  20
                                                                  18
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                                                                  16
                                                                  14
                                                                  12
                                                                  10
                                                                   8
                                                                   6
                                                                   4
                                                                   2
                                                                   0
                                                                        EU     NL     SE    SI     DK    LU     DE     FI    AT     PT    IE   MT   BE   CZ   EE   HU   LV   LT   FR   PL   ES   SK   HR   CY     EL     BG     RO     IT     IS    NO     RS
                                                                       Note: ranked on the average share for men and women (aged 15-29)                                                                         Source: Eurostat (online data code: edat_lfse_20)
Figure 2: Eurostat, Statistics on young people neither unemployment nor in education or training, May 2022
                                                                  As previously mentioned, young people in NEET situation often find themselves experiencing
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disadvantages such as low level of education, among others. The educational attainment
                                                                  17
                                                                        Eurofound, Who are the NEETs?, (2017) https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/it/news/news-articles/who-
                                                                       are-the-neets
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                                                                  is an aspect that Eurostat investigated as a parameter that potentially affects the share of
                                                                  young people in NEET situation in the EU. Therefore, three distinct levels of educational
                                                                  attainment were considered:
                                                                           • low level of education (less than primary, primary or lower secondary level):
                                                                             ranging from 6.4 % of NEET presence in Sweden to 32.7 % in Romania in 2021.
                                                                           • medium level of education (upper secondary or post-secondary): ranging from
                                                                             4.2 % of NEETs in the Netherlands up to a peak of 24.9 % in Italy.
                                                                           • high level of education (tertiary education): the lowest share of NEETs was 3.1 %
                                                                             in the Netherlands but a value as high as 26.8 % was reported in Greece.18
                                                                  The heterogeneity of these trends is explained by the fact that education is an area of
                                                                  competence in the hands of national governments, leading to a lack of harmonization in
                                                                  policies related to school dropout or early school leaving, for instance.
                                                                  To conclude, we can reflect on two EU-wide phenomena:
                                                                           • Early school leaving: according to Eurostat, “in 2021 the distribution between different
                                                                             labour market outcomes was as follows: 42.3 % of all early leavers were in employment,
                                                                             while 34.0 % were not employed but wanted to work, and the remaining 23.7 % were
                                                                             not employed and did not want to work.”19 Early school leaving is an indicator that
                                                                             tells a lot about the socioeconomic context of a given geographic area, with a scenario
                                                                             which is usually twofold. In most difficult geographic areas (Southern regions of Italy
                                                                             and Spain, Greece, Eastern Europe countries), young people tend to abandon school to
                                                                             cope with economic-related necessities within their households. On the other hand, in
                                                                             high-income countries early school leaving can be explained by the fact that the national
                                                                             labour market offers more possibilities to start collecting working history.
                                                                           • Brain drain: it refers to a socioeconomic phenomenon implying the emigration
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                                                                  18
                                                                       Eurostat, Statistics on young people neither in employment nor in education or training, (May
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                                                                       2022) https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Statistics_on_young_people_
                                                                       neither_in_employment_nor_in_education_or_training#To_what_extent_are_young_adults_neither_in_
                                                                       employment_nor_in_education_or_training.3F_The_transition_from_education_to_work
                                                                  19
                                                                       Eurostat, Early leavers from education and training, (May 2022), https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/
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                                                                       statistics-explained/index.php?title=Early_leavers_from_education_and_training#Do_early_leavers_
                                                                       have_a_job.3F_Analysis_by_the_individual.E2.80.99s_labour_status
                                                                  20
                                                                       European Committee of the Regions, Addressing brain drain: the local and regional dimension
                                                                       (2018) https://cor.europa.eu/en/engage/studies/Documents/addressing-brain-drain/addressing-brain-drain.pdf
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                                                                  The title of this short research paper was intended to trigger a questioning mechanism
                                                                  on what are the challenges related to the scarcity of young people’s participation to the
                                                                  European labour market and how Europe is showing itself resilient in its response. In light
                                                                  of what we understood being a deep-rooted problem in plenty of our societies, the serious
                                                                  intention to reach out to all groups of European youth, from the least to the most vulnerable,
                                                                  must be recognized.
                                                                  As a matter of fact, the ALMA programme strives to be the strongest signal that will
                                                                  contribute to the social Europe, designed especially for young people in NEET situation.
                                                                  The formal implementation of ALMA is still on progress and what we know so far is that
                                                                  the programme will strive to help the most vulnerable young people to emerge from their
                                                                  conditions through a result-oriented approach: gaining experience and entering the labour
                                                                  market will be the final objectives. Despite the ambition of ALMA, we may ask ourselves
                                                                  to what extent young people in NEET situation or from vulnerable background are willing
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                                                                  to take over the opportunities offered by the initiative. Following the remarks addressed
                                                                  by the organized civil society, many of these young people not only lack in familiarity with
                                                                  other countries’ languages, but in most of the cases also possess a basic knowledge of
                                                                  their own mother-tongue, together with other obstacles that may emerge, for instance,
                                                                  of relational nature and so on. Moreover, if on the one hand ALMA is aimed at supporting
                                                                  professional mobility within the EU, on the other one it must be taken into account the risk
                                                                  of further fostering “brain drain” – as assessed previously – with a subsequent exacerbation
                                                                  of territorial inequalities in the EU (i.e. North-South and East-West gap). In light of these
                                                                  possible side effects, an impact assessment before and after the policy implementation
                                                                  and an ongoing monitoring process of mobility flows may be both functioning solutions
                                                                  in order provide EU decision-makers with data supporting measures aimed at tackling
                                                                  socioeconomic and demographic inequalities.
                                                                  Good news: the European Union is already working on a similar mechanism and it bears
                                                                  the name of EU Youth Test. It consists of an impact assessment tool that will ensure
                                                                  that young people are taken into consideration during policy-making processes
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                                                                  within the European Union, identifying any mitigation measure necessary to avoid
                                                                  negative impacts. Moreover, the Youth Test will enable the EU to create better targeted
                                                                  and impactful policies, work to reduce inequality gaps and support current and future
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                                                                  generations. Youth mainstreaming in all policies is one of the four key objectives of
                                                                  the European Year of Youth and the aim of the EU Youth Strategy, the framework for
                                                                  EU youth policy cooperation for 2019-2027 fostering youth participation in democratic life,
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                                                                  supporting social and civic engagement and aiming to ensure that all young people have the
                                                                  necessary resources to take part in society.
                                                                  The EU policies and initiatives developed at the EU level in occasion of the European Year of
                                                                  Youth must be positively welcomed as a bold signal of commitment for present and future
                                                                  generations of young people: the European Year of Youth can simply be the point of
                                                                  departure of a long-lasting legacy.
                                                                  In light of the challenges and concerns previously identified, what follows is a non-exhaustive
                                                                  list of recommendations for a fruitful conclusion of this European Year of Youth:
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                                                                  SOURCES
                                                                  Conference on the Future of Europe, European Citizens’ Panel 1: “Stronger economy,
                                                                  social justice and jobs / Education, culture, youth and sport / Digital transformation”
                                                                  Recommendations (2021) https://prod-cofe-platform.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/0xvp06de
                                                                  vg9rgh6orpt3oz3sk5x6?response-content-disposition=inline%3B%20filename%3D%22Panel%20
                                                                  1%20-%20Recommendations_Final%2028%202%2022.pdf%22%3B%20filename%2A%3DUTF-
                                                                  8%27%27Panel%25201%2520-%2520Recommendations_Final%252028%25202%252022.
                                                                  pdf&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Cr
                                                                  edential=AKIA3LJJXGZPDFYVOW5V%2F20220705%2Feu-central-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-
                                                                  Date=20220705T093304Z&X-Amz-Expires=300&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=ff07
                                                                  a919ce76e97878af7385e11371b2c9f47c7c31408462cb88ac7c9b395320
                                                                  European Commission, Commission kick-starts work to make 2022 the European Year of Youth,
                                                                  Press Release, (October 2021) https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_21_5226
                                                                  European Committee of the Regions, Addressing brain drain: the local and regional dimension
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neither_in_employment_nor_in_education_or_training.3F_The_transition_from_education_to_work
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                            YEAR OF YOUTH FOR REAL?
                   IS 2022 THE EUROPEAN YEAR OF YOUTH FOR REAL?
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           THE EUROPEAN
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