READING 2

SUBURBS of THE FUTURE

Despite the lure of bright city lights, it is the suburbs which account for the highest
percentage of population growth. We asked four leading futurists to give their
opinions on the changing face of suburbia.

Sarah Kalensky, regular contributor to The Forecaster

1 As suburban populations grow, so too does suburban sprawl, leading to more and
more people commuting into the city for work, shopping, and entertainment.
However, the future looks different. Sprawl is making way for density as an
approach to suburbanization. Developments aim to provide housing, offices,
shops, and other facilities in one area so that residents are no longer required to
use their own vehicles to get around and commuting hours are reduced. As a
result, the cost of maintaining infrastructure, including roads, could fall by up to
50% per capita according to some.
2 New developments are likely to provide apartments and houses of varying sizes
in the same area, which will allow single people, couples, and families all to reside
there. However, properties will need to be affordable, a task which developers
have struggled to accomplish in recent years. People on lower incomes have
regularly been priced out of the market, making predictions in this area difficult.
Even if housing is affordable at first, the longer-term impact may not be quite as
desired. Once first-time buyers sell their property on, the price - determined by
market forces - may be considerably higher than the original purchase price. The
types of people who were originally able to live there are priced out of the market
and the area becomes middle-class, with people from similar backgrounds and
with similar income levels. Those on lower incomes or from different backgrounds
are excluded. As well as price, construction companies must also consider the
local geography before they commence with the construction of buildings, to
ensure they are as ecologically sustainable as possible. Homes no longer need to
rely on unsustainable energy to run - they can even be carbon-neutral, although
this of course depends on sun and wind levels in the area. Companies must be
aware that what works in one area may not necessarily be successful in another.
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 Yoichi Katayama, author of The Eco Futurist
3 One often quoted benefit of urban density over urban sprawl is the lowering of
emissions, as facilities can be more easily reached on foot or by bicycle. However,
mixed-use developments are often required to provide substantial parking
facilities outside shops and restaurants in the area, which will logically encourage
people to use cars or motorbikes rather than greener alternatives. As well as that,
increased density means increased numbers of people and therefore vehicles,
meaning the reduction in emissions will be somewhat limited and emissions could
arguably increase in that particular area. Having said that, suburbs of the future
can still help to reduce the harm we inflict on our environment. Heating bills do
not need to cost the Earth, literally. By integrating energy-saving features into
new buildings in new developments, it is possible for the area to have a much less
significant impact on the world around us.
4 Energy-saving features will cost less financially too. This is significant as new
developments must be within budget for not only older generations, but also
younger generations. It is very challenging for most millennials to get onto the
property ladder in today’s risk-averse property market. Denser suburbs promise
affordable homes which will allow millennials to overcome this obstacle and
purchase their own homes just as their parents did. Those millennials are likely to
come from a range of backgrounds. While suburbs are often considered to be
places where similar people live together in rows of houses which all look the
same, the truth is that suburbs are already full of people from very different
backgrounds, be that ethnicity, class, or income-level. According to a survey
commissioned by the Urban Land Institute (2016), “seventy-six percent of the
minority population in the top 50 metro areas lives in the suburbs” and there is
nothing to suggest that this will not remain the case or increase in the future.

Matt Crawford, founder of the Forward Thinking Housing Association

5 One possible prediction for modern suburbs is the depression of the housing
market. When existing home owners reach an age where their home is too large
or no longer suitable for their needs, they will look to sell that home and downsize

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 to, for example, a smaller bungalow. As young adults today are struggling to
afford to buy their own homes, sellers may not find buyers, and as a result, prices
will fall. Similarly, eco-friendly features such as solar panels may reduce reliance
on fossil fuels, but they may also significantly increase the price of homes which
could also contribute to the depression of the housing market. One way to
prevent such a depression is to continue to encourage multi- cultural suburbs
through planning and pricing. Mixed housing, i.e., flats, houses, and bungalows in
one area, allows people of all backgrounds to live together and share community
life. Multi-generational families —many of whom are immigrants—will look to
buy the larger homes vacated by retirees. Of course, should there be a depression,
it may well help young adults and those on a lower income to get onto the
property ladder as prices fall to a more acceptable level. Mortgages may still
prove difficult to obtain, however.
6 One attraction of living in new mixed-use developments in the suburbs is that
most people will benefit from more free time to spend on alternative activities.
The suburbs of the future will be more walkable. No longer will residents have to
drive to the city to work, go shopping, or see a film at the cinema—they will be
able to do this in the area where they live, meaning less time spent in the car. This
is likely to lead to a reduction in both congestion and emissions.

Marisa Tomes, CEO of the Neo Construction Group

7 Construction companies are becoming better at producing properties that are
comfortable and warm without endangering the planet. Providing companies
adapt to features in the local surroundings, mixed-use developments have the
opportunity to be friendlier to the environment than we ever have before.
However, it is not only buildings which will contribute to this; transportation will
too. The suburbs tend to be inaccessible to those who are unable to drive as
public transportation is insufficient as a means of traveling to the workplace.
Modern suburbs have a chance to attract those people as they will not need to
rely on cars or indeed public transportation to get around, providing them with
more opportunities without a loss of independence. In fact, fewer people in the
suburbs will need to learn to drive which will keep cars off the road and help to
improve poor air quality.
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8 Mixed housing has proven to be very popular in areas like Washington, D.C.’s
Georgetown. The fact that there will be a range of housing types in future suburbs
will make it easier for people to move from a small apartment to a larger
apartment, or an apartment to a house, without having to move to a different
area completely. Unfortunately, construction companies have focused on
properties in the higher-end of the market in recent years as they have struggled
to build truly affordable properties to aid first-time buyers. The potential to
supply a number of cheaper options for the younger generation and other lower-
income families is certainly there, but it is unclear if the potential can be realized
or not. Building companies do need to plan with a variety of people in mind before
they proceed with their projects.

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