006-乐观主义（双语讲稿）

课程回顾
【00:00:00 - 00:11:43】 整理&校准：新木记（微信公众号）
Hope you had a wonderful long weekend. So,let's jump right into it. So where did we leave last time? Last
time we talked about the power of the situation, we talk about how beliefs become self -fulfilling prophesies.
And how it is through the situation that we very often create expectations,believes of people. And these
believes become reality. And we talked about how social psychology essentially started with some very
important experiment such as the Milgrim effect, or obedience to authority. Such as Zimbardo's prison
experiment, where prisoners were put in or played... students play the role of prisoners or the role of wardens
and they actually entered that role so totally that after a week the experiment had to be stop, when it was
suppose to go on for two weeks. And then the question we asked was, OK,so we know that the situation is
powerful. We know that it makes a difference. Can we also create a powerful, positive situation to bring out
the best in people? And the answer is yes. And we started talking about it and we talk about professor Langer
and her research and how she show that putting um...elderly men in an environment where they were
actually or where they acted as if they were 20 years younger actually became younger. To the point of
having higher levels of intelligence. To the point of improving their memory. Improving their
eyesight,improving their hearing. The distance between the bones in their fingers actually became longer
which is a sign of younger age. They were rated by others as well as by themselves as stronger and younger
just because they acted as if it was 1959 instead of what it was really was, which was 1979. The power of the
positive situation. And then she did another more research on people going for an eyesight test, and put them
in a situation in a flight simulator. And the exact same eyesight test, they actually performed better just
because of the situation.
希望各位度过了个愉快的周末。好了，直入主题，上回说到哪儿了，上回我们谈了环境的力量，谈
到了信念是如何成为自我实现的预言，以及我们是如何通过环境对他人产生期望及信念，这些信念
会变成现实，还谈到了为什么说社会心理学本质上是从某些重要的实验开始的，比如米尔格伦实
验。又称权利服从研究。比如津巴多的监狱实验，试验中囚犯被关在...学生扮演囚犯及看守的角
色，完全进入了角色，以至于一周后实验被迫中止，而原计划是要进行两周。接着我们提出了一个
问题，既然环境的力量如此巨大，能使人改变，那能否创造出一种强大但积极的环境，将人的最佳
状态充分调动起来?答案是肯定的。我们对此做了深入分析，并谈到了教授以及她的研究。她让一群
老人置身于仿20年前的环境中，要求他们装作回到20年前的生活，这些老人竟然变得年轻了，他们
的智力水平提高了，记忆力提升了，视力听力也改善了，手指骨骼间的距离变长了，这是年轻的迹
象。他们自评及互评都认为自己更健康，更年轻了。就因为他们装作自己处在1959年，而不是1979
年，这就是积极环境的力量。她还进行了另一项实验，对象要进行视力检查，他们被安排在了飞行
模拟器里，做完全一样的视力检查。因为环境的不同，测试结果竟然提高了。

And we moved on that what we ended last time by talking about priming. Priming is... can be done in the
conscious or subconscious level. It means planting a seed,planting a belief,planting a word, or a picture in
our mind,consciously or subconsciously. And how that actually influences our behavior. So Bargh,that time
of NYU, did the research where he primed to people with words associated with old. Words if you remember
such as wrinkles, words such as old,words such as Florida. And as a result of this priming, those participants
in the study actually walked slower, or actually were more stooped. When evaluated by researchers who
were not aware of their condition,meaning they didn't know whether they were primed with control words,
just random words,or with words associated with old. So it was just through the priming that people actually
started to behave differently. The power of the situation. The power of the environment. And then Bargh took
it step further and said, OK,let's prime the with positive primes such as achievement, such as
persistence,such as success. These words,for example, they had to find a synonym for the word achievement.
Those who are primed with these words on intelligence test and on memory test actually performed better
than the control group who wasn't primed with these words.
然后我们接着继续讲，上回结束的地方就是分析影射，影射是，可以从意识及潜意识两个层面进
行，是指在我们的意识或潜意识中植入一粒种子、一种信念、一个词或一幅画面，以及如何对我们
行为产生影响。Bargh在纽约大学时，进行过一项研究，他用"年老"的相关词影射实验对象。如果你
们还记得，这些词包括皱纹，年老，佛罗里达。这种影射导致的结果是实验参与者走路更慢了，更
佝偻了。研究者进行评估时，并不知道每个对象的实验条件，也就是说不清楚他们是被影射了对照
词，随机词，还是年老相关词。所以通过影射，人们的行为的确会发生改变。环境的力量，外界的
力量。然后Bargh将实验更进了一步，决定用使用积极的影射，比如成就、毅力、成功，比如这些
词，成就的近义词。实验对象被影射这些词后，智力及记忆力测试的成绩比没有影射的对照组好。

Two Dutch researchers - Dijksterhuis & Knippensberg, what they found was that they brought people, and
they ask them to describe for future experiment, not for that experiment. For a future experiment,ask them to
describe the typical day or typical characteristics of three archetypes - a soccer hooligan,a secretary and a
professor. Describe these three archetypes. And they told them this is for the next experiment where we just
want people to evaluate these archetypes. Not knowing that actually by describing these archetypes, these
individuals were primed. They were primed for a soccer hooligan,for a secretary, or for a professor. And then
they have to do intelligence tests afterwards, memory test after those primes. Those who had to describe the
day of soccer hooligan performed the worse. In terms of memory. In term of intelligence. Then there was the
secretary and those who performed the best were those who described the professor. Now they didn't study
any harder before. Nothing changed except for the fact that there was a prime,that there was something
planted from the environment in their minds.
两位荷兰研究人员Dijksterhuis和Knippensberg，也进行了影射实验，他们找了一批人，请他们为下一
次实验进行描述，不是本次实验，让他们为下一次实验，描述三种原型的典型日常行为及其性格，
足球流氓，秘书及教授，描述这三种原型。他们被告知，这是为下次实验做准备，需要这三种原型
的描述。但他们不知道的是，通过对原型进行描述，自己已经被影射了。他们分别被影射为足球流
氓，秘书或教授。影射后，他们接受了智力测试，及记忆力测试。描述足球流氓日常行为的人表现
得最糟，无论是记忆力还是智力。然后是描述秘书的人。表现最好的是描述教授的人。而他们之前
并没有更努力学习，什么也没有改变，除了发生了影射，环境中有东西植入了他们的思想。

The question then is, how can we create a positive environment for ourselves, where we are primed by the
positive,where we can be happier, more successful and so on. And there's many ways in which we can do it.
Let me share a few. In fact there's going to be your assignment for this week, or one of the assignments to
create a positive environment. So you are some of the examples. Have pictures of people you love or places
you love,the importance of these things is that even if you don't see them, you see them. So on the
subconscious level it's still there. Even though on the subconscious level, when people are primed,they don't
really see...the word, say achievement on the screen,when it's there for 25 mini-second, they don't really see
it,but it registers. So even if a picture is there and you don't "really" see it or not really conscious of
it,mindful of it, it still has a impact on you. So have pictures of people you love, have pleasant
object,whether it's memorabilia, whether it's flowers,whether it's art,your favorite art.
现在的问题是，我们如何为自己创造一个积极的环境，让自己受到积极的影射，变得更幸福，更成
功等等。方法有很多，我跟大家分享几个。其实这将是你们这周的作业之一，即创造一个积极的环
境。举几个例子，找一些你爱的人或地方的照片，这些东西很重要，因为即使你不看它们，潜意识
中还意识到它们的存在，虽然只是在潜意识层面。人们被影射时，看不见，那些词，比如"成就"这
个词出现在屏幕上25毫秒，根本不可能看清，但大脑却记录了下来。所以即使你挂了照片但没去看
它，或没意识到它，念到它，它仍然会对你造成影响。所以找些你爱的人的照片，让你开心的东
西，无论是纪念品、鲜花、艺术品、你最喜欢的艺术品。

So I have in my house,and my office, my favorite art on the wall,by my favorite artists. And let me share
with you a few. I actually brought them here. These are very valuable. I insured them,so it's not a problem.
So... so this is,um, this specific artist from the first phase of his career, as you can see,you know,very
powerful strokes, very intense,very deliberate,and just gorgeous. And here is, by the same artist from the
second phase of his career. Here you already begin to see impressionist influence on his work. But still,you
know you see the same trait, the same power,the same intensity. So I have these on my wall. There's a new
and upcoming artist who I want to introduce you to. She still doesn't have a second phase, you know,she's
only one year's old. But,you know,this is a work done with the help of her Mom. But again,these are on my
wall and they remind me everyday even I've seen them hundreds of time, it's still there and I think about my
kids. And I also have other,you know, less known artists' work on my wall. Again,this is,probably not heard
of this one, um,this is Rodin,The Thinker. And,so I have this on my wall,it's my favorite sculpture. And then
I have another piece by Rodin just to remind me that it's not all about thinking,there are other things that
make life make life worth living. So this is Rodin's The Kiss,for those of you who know it. And again have
these things on your wall create(s) the environment where you feel warm, where it's fun for you to be there.
我家中和办公室都挂了我最爱的画，由我最爱的艺术家创作，让我跟你们分享一下，我今天带到课
堂上来了，它们价值连城，我给它们投了保，所以不用担心。瞧，这位画家处在艺术生涯第一阶段
时的作品。如你所见，充满了有力的线条，非常强烈，非常从容，真是绝了。另外一幅，仍是那位
画家，进入艺术生涯第二阶段，印象派对他作品的影响已经清晰可辨了，不过你仍能从中看出同样
的特点，同样的力量，同样强烈的情感，这些都挂在我家墙上。我还想向你们介绍一位画坛新秀，
她还没进入第二阶段，因为她才一岁大，这幅画是在她妈妈帮助下完成的，但是我还是挂在墙上，
每天提醒我，虽然我已经看过几百次了，但还是挂着，让我想起我的孩子们，我挂了些其他的...名
气不比他们的画家作品。你们可能没听过这画，这是罗丹的《沉思者》，也挂在我的墙上，是我最
喜欢的雕塑。还有罗丹的另一幅作品，提醒我生活不仅要沉思，还有其他的，让生活更美好。这是
罗丹的《吻》，所以找些东西挂在墙上，创造一种让你觉得温暖，觉得开心的环境。

Quotes,you know I love quotes, and I know that many of you love quotes. Some of you have sent me your
favorite quotes. I have on my wall a list of quotes and they are there even if I don't see them,I see them. So
for example,let's see if I brought some here. Yes,here they are. So one is by John Quincy Adams. "Patience
and perseverance have a magical effect before which difficulties disappear and obstacles vanish". So priming
the issue of persistence, by the way which is one thing that Bargh did it. He primed that and people actually
became more persistent. George Eliot,or also known as Mary Anne Evens, my favorite author. She wrote,"
The important work of moving the world forward does not wait to be done by perfect men". I'll talk about
perfectionism which is a very important, very personal thing for me in about three weeks. So she is a very
much a role model. Camus,"In the depth of winter,I finally learned that there was within me an invincible
summer". A quote that has helped me through difficult,through hard times. Henry David Thoreau, "If one
advances confidently in the direction of his dreams, and endeavors to live the life which he has imagined, he
will meet with success,unexpected in common hours ". Again,I have these quotes up on my wall,and a few
others, that many of the quotes that you've seen in the course. And they prime me,they remind me, they
create the environment for me. We'll talk about art in the next section,and its importance. Have you favorite
books next to you. Listen to music, but listen to it mindfully, not just as background music but the music that
inspires you, whether it's rocky,whether it's Eminem,whoever it is. Watch films that inspire you, all these
things help you to create an environment that is conducive to growth,to success,to well being. A lot of this is
done on the subconscious level which is the power of the priming.
A priming studies. And finally this is what positive research is about. If we constantly focus on "negative"
research,anxiety, depression,schizophrenia,we are primed by this research, we are primed by this work. And
it creates reality. You know,this indirectly and conjunctionally relates to, some of you may know,the Isenberg
principle, is that when you measure a phenomenon, you are changing the phenomenon; when you are
measuring a phenomenon, you are also changing yourself. So by researching the positive we are also
priming ourselves with the positive.
名人名言，我喜欢名人名言，你们很多人肯定也喜欢，已经有人把他们最喜欢的名言发我了。我墙
上也有一列名言，就算我没看它们，也能感受到。比如，让我看看有没有带来。好，在这里呢。这
句说亚当斯总统说的，"耐心和坚持总能奇迹般地，扫除困难和障碍"，将"坚持"用于影射。插一句
Bargh的实验也囊括了这个词，受到影射的人的确变得更坚韧不拔。乔治.艾略特，原名玛丽.安妮.艾
凡斯，我最喜欢的作家，她写过"推动人类进步的重任，不能等待完人来完成"。大约三周后，我会
讲到完美主义，对我个人来说是非常重要的私人话题。可以说她是我的榜样。加缪说过"在深冬里，
我终于发现在心里有个不败的夏天"，这句话帮助我走过了艰难困苦。亨利.戴维.梭罗，"如果一个人
能昂首挺胸地朝着梦想前进，努力实现他想象的生活，他会与成功不期而遇"。同样地，我都挂在了
墙上，还有其他的，其中许多名言你们都在课上读到过了。它们不断影射我，提醒我，为我创造出
积极的环境。我们会在下一节讨论艺术及其重要性，把喜欢的书放在手边，听听音乐，要集中注意
听，不要只当背景音乐，要让音乐激发你，无论是摇滚，还是痞子阿姆，都可以。多看看激励你的
电影，这些东西能帮你创造积极的环境，有助于成长，获得成功与产生幸福感。其中大部分都是在
潜意识层面上进行的，这就是影射的力量。
对于影射的研究，这也是积极研究的意义。如果我们总是关注"消极"研究焦虑、压抑、精神分裂
症，就会被这些研究影射，被这些工作影射，创造出现实。你们有些人可能知道，这与冰山理论有
这千丝万缕的联系，即当你度量某种现象时，就是在改变这种现象。当你度量某种现象时，也是在
改变自己。所以通过研究积极环境，我们也是在对自己影射积极的东西。

自我效能感与幸福
【00:11:43 - 00:45:35】
Now,a lot of this work that I'm talking about today and I'll talk about next time actually comes from the self-
help movement. In many ways the self-help movement was founded, was started in the 20th century... was
started with the understanding that we create the world through our thinking,that our mind creates the world.
And books like these came out,back in the 1930's, Thinking Grow Rich. This book since 1930's sold over 60
million copies. It's still selling. It's selling,it's the best seller in the US, it's the best seller in China,in India,
it's the best seller in Africa,it's the best seller in Europe. It has an impact on people and here's one of the
things that Napoleon Hill says, "Whatever your mind can conceive and believe,it can achieve." Whatever
your mind can conceive and believe,it can achieve. Very empowering. And this had an impact on many
different people,on the masses, again,60 million copies,one of the best sellers in history. Henry Ford had a
similar idea, "Whether you think you can or can't,you are right." And people were drawn to this message.
Why? Because it's empowering, because it makes them feel that things are possible. Another very influential
book, The Power of Positive Thinking,Norman Vincent Peale. "Have great hopes and dare to go all out for
them. Have great dreams and dare to live them. Have tremendous expectations and believe in them." How
inspiring for people to hear that, all you need to do is think, all you need to do is believe,and affluence will
come to you. Whether it's intrapersonal affluence, whether it's monetary affluence. And this is been the
message that has drawn the masses and continues to do so today. The best selling book today, No.1 best
seller all over the world,that's right,The Secret. The secret to success is,what they call,the law of attraction.
The law of attraction is that you attract to your life whatever you imaging,whatever you believe it. Again,a
powerful message, millions and millions of copies of this book being sold. As we speak,continue to be sold.
And the message is again simple: believe,and you will achieve; conceive,and it will be conceived. In
reality,in the world,it will come to you. Very convincing,very inspiring message. But,is this message right?
Well,we talked about this and we saw the Roger Bannister story. You know one day,or six weeks after Roger
Bannister runs a mile in 4 minutes,or in 3'59,John Landy runs it in 3'57.9. The year after 37 runners run the
mile in under 4 minutes. So there is something to it. Once they believed it was possible,it became possible.
今天包括下周，我谈到的很多内容，其实都是源于自助运动。自助运动确立于20世纪，并从各个方
面展开。其理论基础为我们通过思考创建了世界，我们的思维创建了时间。1930年代相关书籍开始
出版，比如《思考致富》，从30年代至今销售超过6千万本，而且仍不断再版，至今还是畅销书 不
论在美国、中国、印度、非洲还是欧洲，它对人们产生了巨大影响。作者Napoleon Hill这样说
过，"只要你想得到，只要你相信，你就能够做到"。只要你想得到，只要你相信，你就能够做到，
非常鼓舞人心。对各类人群，对大众产生了很多影响。6千万本销量，史上最畅销书籍。Henry Ford
也发表过类似的看法，"不论你认为自己行还是不行，你都是对的"。许多人都这一理念吸引，为什
么，因为它鼓舞人心，让他们觉得没有什么不可能的。另一本极具影响力的书，Norman Vincent
Peale的《正面思考的力量》，"要有美好的希望，并全力以赴去追求，要有远大的梦想，并全力以赴
去实现。要有宏伟的期望，并深信不疑"。多么让人为之一振啊，只要你思考，只要你相信，就会获
得富足。无论是精神的富足，还是物质的富足。这一理念对大众一直有着巨大吸引力，时至今日仍
是如此。当今最畅销的励志书，全球销量第一，没错，《秘密》。成功的秘密就是所谓的"吸引力法
则"。即你的生活是被你吸引过来的。无论你想象什么，无论你相信什么，有一条强大的讯息。本书
已经卖出了几百万本，就在我们说话当口，仍在热卖。而它传达的讯息其实很简单，相信就会成
功，构想就会实现，在现实中就会实现。让人信服，鼓舞人心。但是，这条讯息正确吗，这我们讨
论过。还有Roger Bannister的故事，他在4分钟，准确说是3'59跑完了1英里，6周后John Landy将这一
成绩缩短到3'57.9，一年后37名运动员都能跑到4分内了。其中有一定奥妙，一但他们相信能办到，
就有可能实现。

And here is the issue, with much of what's going on in the self-help today, self-help realm today,it draws on a
truth, a real truth and then blows it out of proportion. So yes, there is some truth in the fact that our mind
creates reality. But that's only part of the truth. We create reality or rather we co-create reality. There has to
be something out there or in there, for example,when it comes to The Secret. If you believe that you are
likely to succeed, you are much more likely to succeed. But that has to come with a lot of hard work and
persistence, it has to come with a lot of failure, and learning from that failure. So it's just half of the equation
and what these self-help books and messages do is overpromise and under-deliver, which at times can be
destructive. For example,if everything is based on the law of attraction. I created everything that everything
is up to me and also everything is my fault. Even taking to the extreme, is a 3 years old girl responsible for
being abused? Is a 30 years old man responsible for being paralyzed as a result of an accident by a drunken
driver? There are certain things that are out there and when we say that everything is up to us, everything is
created by the law of attraction, then it's a prescription maybe in the short term for inspiration and for belief
and for wellbeing,but in the long term, it's for frustration,for guilt,and for unhappiness. And also for less
success because if I really believe that it's all about thinking, then this is going to be my mind set. All I need
to do is believe and then all the money will come to me. All the success in a relationship will come to me.
And that does away with the hard work, with the persistence,with the failure that is necessary, part and parcel
of a successful,happy,fulfilling,human life.
但问题是，当今的心理自助运动的发展趋势，当今的自助领域强调某个真相，将这个真相过分鼓
吹。没错，某种意义上我们的精神的确能创造现实，但是这不是全部。我们创造了现实，或者说是
共同创造，还会受到外界或者内在的某些影响。比如《秘密》，如果你相信自己可能会成功，那成
功的可能性会变大，但离不开刻苦勤奋与坚持不懈，而且失败避免不了，你要从失败中学习。所以
这只是等式的一半。而这些自助书籍传达的讯息往往言过其实，效果甚微，甚至可能会造成毁灭性
后果。比如，如果一切皆建立于吸引力法则上，我创造了一切，一切都因我而变，一切都是我的
错。举个极端点的例子，如果3岁小女孩被虐待，那是她的责任吗。30岁的男子被酒醉驾车的司机撞
成瘫痪，是他自己的责任吗。有些事情是我们无法控制的，所以一切因我而变，一切都由吸引力法
则决定，这种说法短期内可能能让你坚定信念，获得幸福感。但是长期来看，只会让人感到挫败、
内疚、不快乐，离成功越来越远。因为如果我真的相信一切都由思考决定，这种想法就会成为我的
心态习惯。只要有信心，钱就会滚滚而来，爱情就会降临于我，这抹杀了勤奋工作，坚韧不拔以及
失败的作用。它们也是成功、幸福、完满人生的必要组成部分。

I want to show you a quick video. This is of an ad I saw online and I actually called the Royal Bank on
Scotland and asked them to send me the original. Because it captures some of the misunderstanding that
there is today about the power of the mind. Just a very cute ad. Douglas from the conference. - James
Aderson. - Oh,yeah. That's a lot of green. What kind of bird is it? - What's that? - I don't know. It's ok guys!
I've done a course. -What? -Positive thinking. Positive thought makes a positive impact. OK? Positive
thought has a positive impact. Look at me. That's right. Okay,come on. (Emergency Start) Talk is no
substitute for action. That's the power. Make it happen. The Royal Bank of Scotland Group. - I am good. -
Yes,you are.
我给大家放一段短片，是我在网上看到的一段广告，于是我向苏格兰皇家银行索要了原版，因为它
抓住了当今人们对精神力量的某种误解。很诙谐的一则广告。Douglas，也是参加会议的， James
Aderson - 你好，这儿风景真不错，那是什么鸟？- 怎么回事 - 不知道。没事的，各位，我上过一门课
程。- 什么? - 正面思考。正面的思考会产生正面的影响。明白不，正面的思考会产生正面的影响。
看着我，没事的，来。(紧急启动)。语言不能代替行动。这就是思想的力量，创造现实，苏格兰皇家
银行集团。- 我真厉害 - 真的耶。

It captures part of the truth but not the whole truth. So let's see what serious research has to say about the
power of the mind. A real phenomenon,actual phenomenon,but one that we need to also apply real research
to see what works. Albert Bandura,on your reading about for this week, has done a lot of work on the
concept of self-efficacy which is essentially the academic term for believing in oneself. And here is what he
writes after decades and decades of research. He by the way won the researcher's prize for the positive
psychologists last year so he's doing a lot of research in this area. He's from Stanford. "Beliefs in personal
efficacy affect life choices, level of motivation,quality of functioning,resilience to adversity and vulnerability
to stress and depression." Those you believe in themselves,who have confidence, do well across the different
areas in their lives,He continues, "People who regard themselves as highly efficacious act,think, and feel
differently from those who perceive themselves as inefficacious. They produce their own future,rather than
simply foretell it." In other words,what he's talking about here is that these people are scribed in their lives.
They create their own lives as oppose to those that are being prescribed by others. They are more resilient,
better able to deal with hardships and difficulties. In other words,better capacity as we discussed earlier to
deal with difficulties. Now the important thing about this research, in his research over the years is that it can
be learned. It's cultivated over time. So it would be useless if,in terms of research, at least for us if he would
say, well,some people are born with it,and others are not. Some people are born with,what they started to talk
about, the resilience gene,and others are not born with that. But that's not the case. What he has shown is that
it can be learned. It takes time,it takes effort, and we will talk about later how we do it. But the important
thing,it's malleable. We can do something about it.
它抓住了部分真相，但不是全部。我们看看严肃研究对精神力量的解释，一种神奇的现象，但还是
需要通过实验来研究其原理。Albert Bandura，你们本周的阅读任务。做了许多关于自我效能的研
究，本质上是自信的学术术语。以下是他进行几十年研究后的结论。去年他获得了授予积极心理学
家的研究者奖项。进行了很多这方面的研究，他是斯坦福大学的教授。自我效能感影响人们生活选
择，动机水平，机能的质量，对逆境的适应力，对压力和沮丧的抵抗力，相信自己的人，充满信
心，在生活的不同领域都表现出色。他还指出，认为自己高效能者。与认为自己无用者，想法感觉
完全不同。他们创造自己的未来，而不是简单地梦想。换句话说，他所说的是对生活充满信心的
人，他们创造自己的人生。与那些由他人摆布的人不同，他们适应力更强，对困难与挫折的应对力
更强。换句话说，能力更强。我们之前讨论过应对挫折的问题。这项研究的重要性在于，经过长年
累月的研究发现，这些能力是可以习得的，可以慢慢培养，否则研究就是无用的，至少对我们来说
是。如果通过研究他得出结论，说这种能力只是天生的，有些人天生就有适应力基因，其他人没
有。幸好情况不是这样，他的研究表明这些都可以习得的，但要花时间和经历，我们以后会讨论如
何培养。重要的是，这些能力是可以锻炼的，我们可以改变它。

Other research by Curry on college athletes, I know there are many athletes in this room. She showed that
56% of your successes as an athlete, once you start being an athlete,is determined by levels of hope, by how
much you believe that you are going to succeed. Remember from very first or second class where I talked
about the research by John Carter, about the business...HBS graduates. Where he predicted... where the two
things predicted success in the long term, extraordinary success of these grads. One was that they were
constantly asking questions, and two was that they believed in themselves. They thought they could do well.
But it's important to also realize that it's not 100 percent of the variances that was explained, by hope,or by
belief,or by optimism, as many of the self-help books would have us believe. But it's certainly part of the
equation of success. Nathaniel Branden has been a therapist for fifty years; he's done a lot of rigorous
philosophical and psychological research and work on the concept of self-esteem. We'll visit him more in-
depth when we talk about, when we have the week on self-esteem. But for now,just a quick quote: "the level
of our self-esteem,in another words, the level of our belief in ourselves, has profound consequences for
every aspect of our existence: how we operate in the workplace,how we deal with people, how high we are
likely to rise,how much we are likely to achieve and,in the personal realm, with whom we are likely to fall in
love, how we interact with our spouse,children,and friends, what level of personal happiness we attain." Very
low levels of correlation between material affluence and wellbeing, or between where we live and wellbeing,
very high correlation between self-esteem and wellbeing. In most research what we found is a 0.7 correlation
between the two constructs. This is what I found in my dissertation as well. So self-esteem matters. The
internal matters and what we are doing when we enhance when we raise our levels of belief in ourselves is
we are transforming our mind,we are changing the form, so that we see we interact,we see the world
differently, we perceive different things, we experience things in a different way. Whether it's successes that
we then celebrate, or failures that we then learn from and turn into opportunities. But so much of it is about
what we have inside here. Branden,"self-concept is destiny." Very similar to"whatever your mind can
conceive,it can achieve" from Napoleon Hill. The only difference being that he also puts a lot of rigorous
thinking and research there and shows the limitation of the belief.
Curry做过一项关于运动员的研究，下面一定坐着许多运动员。她证明了一旦成为运动员，56%的成
功是由期望度决定的，成功取决于你坚信自己能取得成功的程度。记得第一或第二节课上，我提到
了John Carter的研究。有关商...哈佛商学院毕业生的，他预测...有两个因素会影响他们的长期成功，
某些毕业生会格外成功，一是他们不断地提问，二是他们相信自己。他们相信自己能行，但需要意
识到的是，不是所有这些差异，都能用希望，信念或乐观来解释的。很多自助书籍想引导我们这么
认为，但当然这些是成功的一部分。Nathaniel Branden从事心理治疗50年了，他做过许多严谨全面的
哲学及心理学研究，致力于对自尊概念的探究。等我们进行到自尊课时，会详细讲他的研究。现在
我只引用他的一句话，"我们每个人自尊的水平，也就是自信的程度，对我们的方方面面有着深远的
影响。比如我们的待人接物，能取得的地位，能取得多少成就。还比如在个人领域，我们会与谁坠
入爱河，我们与配偶孩子及朋友的关系，个人幸福的水平"。物质富足与幸福感，或生活地点与幸福
感，属于低度线性相关，而自尊与幸福感属于高度线性相关。大多数研究发现两者的相关系数，可
以达到0.7，我的论文也获得了相同结论，所以自尊非常重要，内在因素很重要。我们提高自信水平
时，发生在我们身上的是，我们在转变精神，改变"容器"，这样我们看世界的角度不同了，有了不
同的理解与感悟，处事待人的方法不同了。庆祝成功，从失败中学习，转化为机遇，但最重要的是
我们的内在。Branden说过"自我概念即命运"，与"只要你想得到，只要你相信，你就能够做到"。非
常相似 Napoleon Hill说的，唯一的不同之处是，他对此进行了严谨细致的思考与研究，以证明信仰
的局限性。

Here is another example of research done in the area which most people know about. The Placebo effect.
You go to the doctor,you have a headache, the doctor tells you: here I have a pill for you. The best thing. Just
came out recently. Will help you get over the headache. Gives you the pill. You get over the headache.
Unbeknownst to you,what she gave you was,a sugar pill. But because you thought, because you believed that
it would help your headache, it actually did help your headache. Real phenomena medicine. So Herbert
Benson,from the across the river, from the medical school here, has done a lot of research in this area. Let
me share with you just two of his studies. What Benson did was bringing women who had, who were
pregnant,and who had stomach problems... they were vomiting,they were throwing up,they were nauseous,
something which is relatively common especially in the first trimester of pregnancy. So he brought them in
and told them, "I have this new pill for you that will help you overcome your stomach distress. You won't
throw up any more after; this is a very powerful and good pill." So he gave them that pill and they got over
their stomach distress,they were better. They didn't know of course this was just a placebo drug, just a sugar
pill. Then he took it step further, brought in another group of women with the exact same stomach
distress,with the same vomiting. Gave them the pill, he told them would help them overcome their stomach
distress. Only this time,instead of a sugar pill, he actually gave them small dosage, not dangerous but small
dosage of ipecac. Now those of you who know what ipecac is... It's a drug that we take if we want to throw
up. So if we have food poisoning, we take these drugs and it will actually elicit vomiting. So he gave them
this drug and again, this passed all the ethic reviews and was not dangerous,you know But that's what he did.
And these women were told that they'd get better. And they did get better. Not only did they not vomit as
they should have done, more so with the ipecac,they actually stopped.
这一领域的另一个研究，大多数都听说过，安慰剂效应。你头痛，去看医生，医生说，我给你开种
药，非常有效，新出的，能治疗你的头痛。你吃了药头不痛了。你不知道的是，她给你的其实是糖
球。但是因为你以为，因为你相信它能治好头痛，还真治好了，真是神药啊。于是Herbert Benson 在
河对岸，医学院的老师，对此做了一系列研究，我着重跟大家讲两个。他找了一些处在妊娠期胃部
不适的妇女，她们都有呕吐恶心的症状，这其实挺常见的，尤其是在怀孕初期的三个月。他告诉她
们，这里有一种新药，能缓解你们胃部不适，治疗呕吐症状，非常有效。于是他把药给了她们，她
们的胃部就好了。当然，她们不知道那只是安慰剂，普通的糖丸。然后他将实验更进一步，找来了
另一组有同样胃部不适，呕吐症状的妇女。把药给她们，告诉她们可以缓解胃病。但是这次，他给
的不再是糖丸，而是小剂量没有危险性的小剂量的吐根。你们可能知道吐根，是催吐时服用的药
物。如果发生食物中毒，就需要服用吐根催吐，他给这些病人服用了吐根。这一实验通过了道德审
查，没有风险。他给这些病人服用了吐根，并告诉她们能治疗呕吐，而她们也的确恢复了健康。本
来应该出现的呕吐症状不仅没有出现，由于服用了吐根更该呕吐的，实际上呕吐却停止了。

Let me read to you an excerpt from his book, which I highly recommend,Timeless Healing. I
quote,"Remarkably,the patients' nausea and vomiting ceased entirely and their stomach contractions, as
measured through the balloons,returned to normal. Because they believed they received anti-nausea
medicine, the women reversed the proven action of a powerful drug. Even though many of us stock our
medicine cabinets and first aid kits with ipecac to bring about vomiting in case of poisoning, these pregnant
women with documented stomach distress thwarted the action of a drug that should have made them even
sicker. With belief alone,they cured themselves." Now,this doesn't mean that drugs don't have an effect. You
know,I don't recommend going home now and, you know,giving your roommates, you know,ipecac or even
worse cyanide and then tell them this is actually Vitamin C. they will probably not feel better or healthier as
a result. But what this experiment dose, and many others like it show is that powerful effect of the mind
which we shouldn't discard. We need to study it and understand.
我给大家读一段摘录自他的《永恒的治疗》，我非常推荐这本书。"引人注目地是病人的恶心感与呕
吐反应完全终止了，且根胃内水球测量，胃胀现象也消失了，恢复正常，因为她们相信她们服用的
是止吐药，竟然逆转了催吐药的作用。虽然很多人在医药箱储存了吐根，以防食物中毒发生，这些
胃部不适的孕妇，却抵御了本该让她们更难受的催吐药物，单凭信仰就治好了病痛。但这不是说药
物没有效果。我不推荐大家回家以后给你们的室友服用吐根，甚至氰化物，然后告诉他们这是维生
素C，他们一般不会感觉好。但这一实验及其他类似实验表明，我们不应忽视精神的强大力量，而需
要研究并理解它。

Well,here is another experiment that Benson writes about in his book. This was done in Japan. So,people
who are allergic to a specific plant were brought into a lab,had their eyes closed,and then, they had these
plant touch their forearm, and then they had another plant touch their other forearm, and they didn't know
which was which. And of course that plant that they were allergic to, the arm flared up. They were allergic to
it after all. But then,their was a second condition, these people were told that the actual drug(plant) that they
are allergic to touched their left hand, and another plant that they were not allergic to touched their right
hand. But Benson reversed the effect, so actually the plant that they were allergic to touched their right
hand,and the plant that they were not allergic to touched their left hand. So they were supposed to flare up on
the right,not on the left. But because they believed that the allergic plant was on the left,their left hand flared
up, their right hand did not. Based on the power of the mind. Once again,this does not mean that the external
doesn't matter and that we attracted everything that we want to into our lives, but it does mean that the mind
plays a very important role in creating our physical,certainly emotional, cognitive as well as external reality.
Benson在他的书中还写到了另一个实验，这项实验是在日本进行的，实验对象对某种植物过敏，他
们被蒙着眼睛带进实验室。研究人员用过敏植物碰触他们一只手臂，然后用另一种植物碰触另一只
手臂，但没有告诉他们哪边是过敏植物。理论上被过敏植物碰触的手臂，会发出了疹子，出现过敏
反应。但是，实验还有另一个条件，他们被告知会过敏的植物碰触了他们的左手，不会导致过敏的
植物碰触了他们的右手。但是Benson将两者对调了，即真正会导致过敏的植物，碰触的是他们的右
手，而不会导致过敏的，碰触的是他们的左手。所以按理说，应该右手起疹子，而非左手。但是因
为他们误以为左边的才是过敏植物，所以左手起了疹子，而右手没有。因为精神的力量。但同样
的，这并不是说外在因素不重要，也不说明生活中的一切都是被吸引过来的，但是这的确证明了精
神对构建我们的生理、情感、认知以及外在环境起了重要作用。
Beliefs very often become self-fulfilling prophecies. But how does it work? How does it work? Let me share
with you this model that I created based on a lot of research in the field. That essentially tries to explain how
our beliefs, our expectations impact our performance. Whether it's through the placebo drug, whether it's our
performance in school,in sports, in relationships,in every area in our lives. In other words,what comes in the
box here? Or in the...over here? What comes,what mediate between beliefs, expectations and actual
performance in the real world? I want to talk about two mechanisms. The first one is very straight forward,
relatively simple,it's motivation. So,if I believe that I can do well, and think about your own past
experiences, when you believe that you could do well in something, you are much more likely to be
motivated than if you think that you are hopeless and have no chance, you are much more likely to resign
and not do anything. You are much more likely to be motivated before the event whatever the event may
be,in training,in practice, as well as during the event,while it's taking place. Think about what Marva Collins
did. She motivated her students, she made them believe that they could achieve, that they could make
something out of their lives and that it's their responsibility that it was up to them, and that made all the
difference for them. Because they were motivated,they worked hard. So motivation makes a difference.
信念常常会成为自我实现的预言，但它是如何作用的呢?我想跟大家分享一个模型，是我根据这一领
域大量研究建立起来的，它基本上解释了我们的信念及希望是如何影响我们的表现的。无论是安慰
剂效应，还是我们学习、体育运动、恋爱关系等生活各个方面的表现。换句话说，这盒子里是什
么，这上面应该有哪些内容?是什么斡旋于信念期望，及实际表现之间?我想谈谈两个机制。第一个
相对简单易懂，即动力。如果我相信我能行，各位可以回忆一下自己的经历，当你相信你能做好某
事时，会非常有动力。如果你认为自己希望渺茫，那就很有可能就此放弃，无所作为。你不仅事前
会受到激励，无论是训练，还是练习，而且正式进行时也会动力十足。想想Marva Collins的研究，
她激励学生，让他们相信他们能获得成功。他们一生中能有所作为，这是他们的责任。这改变了他
们的命运，因为他们有了动力，所以非常刻苦。所以动力非常重要。

There is another thing though,in addition to motivation, and that is the notion of consistency or congruence.
What dose that mean? You see,we all have a mental schema of the world, a mental schema of the way the
world should be,or to be or is. For example,I have a mental schema that suggests that things fall when left in
middle air. So I have a schema that says that if I dropped this, it would actually fall. I have a schema about
my ability in mathematics that I might be a good mathematician, that I have potential in this area or not. I
also have the schema about other people. I like this person. That person is a nice person versus this person is
just not nice,cruel. So we have schemas about other people, about ourselves,about natural phenomenon. This
is inside,the schema. And then,there is the outside world. In the outside world,actual things take place. For
example,when this is left in middle air,it falls. This is,has nothing to do with my schema. It's outside. It
happens regardless of my schema. Now I have certain potential in mathematics regardless of my schema. A
certain person behaves generously and benevolently toward other people or in a hateful manner toward other
people regardless of my schema. So there is what's inside and what is outside, and here is the key point. You
see,the mind dose not like when there is a discrepancy between what is inside and what is outside. The mind
likes when there is consistency, congruence between the two,and if there is no congruence, if there is no
consistency, then we experience a sense of dissidence, then we experience disease. Doesn't feel good,doesn't
feel right and we do,very often, everything that we can to get the two on par again. Either by changing the
external reality or by changing our mind to match the external reality. We don't like when there is
inconsistency.
除了动力外，另一样东西也会影响我们，即一致性或相合性的概念，那是什么意思。我们每个人对
世界都存在心理图式，世界应该怎么样，会怎么样是怎么样。比如，我的一个心理图式，表明把东
西放在半空会掉下来，所以我认为如果我放开这东西，它就会掉下来。图式认为我的数学能力，我
可能是个优秀的数学家，我在这一领域是否有潜力，对其他人的态度也有图式，我喜欢这人，那人
真好，还是那人不好，残忍。所以我们对他人，对自己，对自然现象，都有图式。图式就是内在，
还有外部世界，现实发生在外部世界。比如，半空中我松开手，它就会掉下来，这一事实与我的图
式无关，它发生在外部世界。不管我的图式如何。我在数学上的实际潜力，也与我的图式无关。某
个人对他人，是慷慨仁慈还是可憎无礼，也与我的图式无关。所以内部和外部两个因素共同作用就
是关键。我们的大脑不喜欢内部与外部存在差异，我们的精神喜欢两者一致相合。如果不相合，如
果不一致，我们就会产生异议感，觉得不适，感觉不舒服，不对劲。所以我们常常不惜一切让两者
统一。要么改变外部现实，要么改变自我思维以符合外部现实，我们不喜欢不一致。

There are a few ways in which we can create this consistency again. Let me share with you just some of
them, and I'm gonna share four. They are interconnected. There is relationship between. there is overlap, but
just so it helps you to think about it. That helps you understand the dialogue that takes place between what is
inside or what is inside and what is outside. So the first thing we can do when there is a discrepancy, when
there is inconsistency between the two is update schema. This is the first thing we can do. So,I didn't know
things fell when left in middle air, now I know,I updated my schema. Or,I thought that person was actually
hateful, but I just saw him behave generously and benevolently, now I update my schema,he's a nice person.
The second thing that we do, which happens much more often than the first one, is ignore or discard in
external information. We ignore and discard external information that doesn't match our schema. We don't
like this inconsistency, we just throw this inconsistency out, so to speak,by ignoring it,discarding it. The third
thing we do, we actively seek confirmation. We actively seek confirmatory data. I mean,think about No.2
and 3,think about in the real you know we are in the midst of election year. Think about the person you are
not going to vote for, or the person you didn't vote for. What we do? Very often,let's say, I see President Bush
doing something good, actually fighting for a cause that I believe in. But I didn't vote Bush,for instance. Very
often what I would do is ignore and discard that information, and then look for confirming evidence that will
suggest...or that will confirm to me why I don't like Bush in the first place. This same regarding,say the
future elections,Hillary or Obama. If I dislike them,I would look for confirming evidence why I dislike them
and even if they do things that I like and value and believe in, I very often will ignore these things and
discard them. And what you are doing here,you are creating a reality because you are asking a question such
as where has Bush done terrible things or where has Hillary or Obama did terrible things? And when we ask
these questions, we completely ignore,discard,not see the positives. Remember when I ask you about the
geometric shapes? You didn't see the children on the bus. Even though they were right there in front your
very eyes. So we know that questions create reality, and in order to maintain this consistency, we do very
often one of these two things. Either ignore and discard,or seek confirming evidence, positive or negative to
back up our schema. Hillary,Obama is good or Bush is good or whatever it is that we are thinking about. The
fourth thing is much more directly,creating a new reality. What kind of reality existed before the 6th of
May,1954? It was reality in which four minutes was the limit of human ability. And what did Edison
do,sorry,what did Bannister do? He said it's possible and then he changed the external reality. Not just for
himself,but also for other runners in the world. And suddenly a new reality was created. Initially the schema
was four minutes is not possible, or rather four minutes is not possible and everyone adhered to this schema.
Roger Bannister came and said,it is possible, and changed that reality,not just for himself, but for other
runners who were there. The thing though is,that after we perform with high motivation, low motivation
might looking for consistency.
有好几种方法，可以重建一致性，我给大家介绍几个。我会讲4个，都是互相关联的，互相联系，还
有重合之处，但这样能帮助你们就此进行思考，帮助你们理解内部与外部间发生的对话。两者差异
发生时，我们首先能做的就是更新图式，这是第一种做法。比如，原来我不知道松开手东西会掉下
来，现在我知道了，于是我更新图式。又比如，我原来以为那人很可恶，但我看到他们对别人慷慨
仁慈，于是我更新图式，他是个好人。第二种做法通常比第一种更普遍，即忽视或抛弃外在信息，
忽视或抛弃不符合图式的外部信息。我们不喜欢不一致，于是直接扔掉这种不一致，也就是忽视，
抛弃它。第三种方法，主动验证，我们会主动寻求验证信息。想想2和3，想想现实世界，今年正是
选举年。想想你不会投谁的票，或者你以前没投过谁，我们是怎么做的?通常，比如，我看到布什总
统做了件好事，为我信仰的某个事业奋斗，但我之前没给布什投票，举例而已。于是多数情况下我
会选择忽视抛弃这条信息，然后寻找有利证据以支持，坚定我讨厌布什的立场。这同样适用于今后
的选举，比如希拉里或奥巴马，如果我不喜欢他们，我就会寻找相应证据，证明我为什么不喜欢他
们，即使他们做了什么我喜欢重视或信仰的事，通常我会选择忽视。我们所做的就是创造另一个现
实。因为我们在质疑布什做过什么恶，希拉里或奥巴马做过什么恶。当我们问这些问题时，我们已
经完全忽略抛弃正面的东西。记得我问你们几何性质吗，你们没看见车上的孩子，虽然他们就在你
们眼前。所以质疑会创造现实。而为了保持一致性，我们常常会采取二者中的一种方法，要么忽视
抛弃，要么寻找有利证据。无论积极或消极，来支持我们的图式。是希拉里，奥巴马好，还是布什
好，或是其他任何看法。第4件事直接得多，即创造新的现实。1954年5月6日前的现实是什么，当时
的现实是4分钟是人类的极限，不可能突破。爱迪生做...抱歉 Bannister做了什么。他说可能，于是改
变了外在现实。不仅是他自己，还有世界上其他赛跑者，突然间创造了新的现实。起初的图式是4分
钟不可能跑完，或者说4分钟不可能跑完，而所有人都拥护这个图式。Roger Bannister认为是可能
的，他改变了现实，不仅为自己，也为其他赛跑者。事实是，当干劲十足的人达成后，干劲没那么
足的人可能也会寻求统一。

All that is left us to do is interpret our performance. Was it successful or not successful,and good or bad?
And there are two forms of interpretation. One is the objective interpretation, did I just give A in an exam or
did I get a C. Did I just come third or did I come last in their race. Did I just be Princeton in hockey on
Friday? Or did I lose to Princeton? Go Harvard. So what happen? This is the reality. It's objective,its
objective. But then, there is also the subjective interpretation based on my beliefs. Let me share an example
with you... This is a story told about Thomas Edison. Thomas Edison,back in the 1870's, was working along
with the rest of the scientific community on the light bulb,on generating light from electricity.
我们需要解读自己表现。成功还是不成功，好还是坏，有两种解读方法，一是客观解读，我考试得
了A还是C，跑步我是第三名还是最后一名，周五与普林斯顿大学的冰球赛，是赢了还是输了?哈佛
加油，到底发生了什么?这就是现实，客观。但同时，还有由信仰决定的主观解读。举个例子，有个
关于托马斯.爱迪生的故事。爱迪生于1870年代，与科学界都在研究灯泡，如何用电发光，整个科学
界都在研究这一课题，但一无所获，爱迪生也不例外。当地报纸的一名记者前去采访爱迪生，他当
时已经非常有名了，发明了很多东西。他们谈了各种话题，然后开始讲灯泡问题。那个记者对爱迪
生说，"爱迪生先生，您致力于灯泡研究许多年了，整个科学界都在进行相同研究，但毫无所获"。
当时爱迪生已经进行了5000次实验。这位记者也知道，于是他对爱迪生说，"爱迪生先生，您已经进
行了5000次实验，失败了5000次，放弃吧"。你们可能知道，爱迪生听力不好。事实上，他有一项专
利就是助听器。所以他对记者说"你说什么，那个记者重复"我说你失败了5000次，放弃吧"，爱迪生
回答"我没有失败5000次，是成功了5000次，我成功证明了哪些方法行不通"。同样的客观现实，表
现 5000次失败，但却有完全不同的解读。那个记者也其他科学界认定，这是不可能达成的，但爱迪
生的主观解读，却是他走向成功的敲门砖，因为是可能的。事实是，爱迪生在发明灯泡前就宣布，
他将在1879年12月31日展示灯泡，这是在他发明灯泡前。1879年12月31日，爱迪生向世界展示了，
用电发光。

The entire scientific community or much of it was working on that,on that issue,with no success, Thomas
Edison being no exception. A journalist from one of the local papers came to Thomas Edison to interview.
He was already famous by then,he invented many things. And they were talking about various things and
then they got to talk about the light bulb. And the journalist said to Edison,"Mr. Edison, you've been working
on the light bulb for many years. The rest of the scientific community has been working on it, to no avail."
Now at that point Thomas Edison had conducted 5000 experiments, so,and the journalist knew that so he
told Edison, "Mr. Edison,you've conducted 5000 experiments, and you failed 5000 times. Give it up." Now
Thomas Edison,some of you may know was also hard of hearing,in fact one of his patents was a hearing aid.
So he said to the journalist," Excuse me,what did you say?" The journalist said,"well,I said you failed 5000
times, give it up." So Edison responded,"I didn't fail 5000 times. I succeeded 5000 times. I succeeded in
showing what doesn't work." Same objective reality,performance,5000 failed experiments, but very different
interpretation. The journalist and many other people in the scientific community conclude its not possible,
the interpretation,subjective interpretation of Edison it's just another stepping stone towards success because
it is possible. In fact,Edison declared,before he had the light bulb, that on the 31st of December,1879, he
would display the light bulb. That was long before he had done it. On the 31st of December,1879,Edison
displayed to the world, generating light from electricity. Just like in 1962,John F. Kennedy said that there
would be a man on the moon by the end of the decade. And there was before we had the materials necessary
for doing it, before we had other technology necessary for doing it. He threw his knapsack over the world
and said it's possible to do it. And that created a reality. That was coupled with a lot of hard work. Edison in
fact failed more that 5000 more times before he actually created the light bulb. It wasn't just sitting his room
and saying, "I believe therefore I will achieve." It was I believe and I will work even harder now, with more
motivation and so on. One of his mantras,"I failed my way to success." It is no coincidence that Edison,by
far the most creative and productive scientific genius of all time. he patented 1097 patents in his career.
Much of our world looks the way it looks, thanks to him. No coincidence,but the most successful, creative
scientist in history is also,as far as we know, the scientist who had failed the most times. Research by Dean
Simonton,we'll talk about it more depth when we talked about perfectionism. Research by Dean Simonton
shows that the most successful scientists and artists through our history were also the ones who failed the
most times. No coincidence that "Babe" Ruth,who hit during many of the years when he played the most
homeruns,also hit the most strike outs. In five of these seasons,was strike out the most times rather. The most
successful people in history are also very often, the people who had failed the most times. This is a sentence
that I'll repeat it over and over again in the class and here it is: learn to fail,or fail to learn. Learn to fail,or
fail to learn, there is no other way to succeed. There is no other way to learn,in terms of how to work, and
there is no other way to learn in terms of learning how to succeed as scientist,or as a politician,or as an artist.
The artists,as Dean Simonton showed,who had the most dubs, the most failed attempts through out history
were also the artists who were the most successful in the long run. No short cuts. It's not enough to just sit
down and think, and conceive and believe. We need to do much more than that.
同样地，1962年肯尼迪总统说，60年代末人类将踏上月球。那时我们连登月的物质条件，科学技术
都还不具备。他向全世界放话说，人类能踏上月球，然后创造了现实。这与大量的辛勤工作是分不
开的。事实上，爱迪生失败了不止5000次，才最终发明了灯泡。他不是干坐在实验室说，"相信就能
做到"。而是我相信，而且我会加倍努力，满怀斗志地工作。他的一条名言是"我从失败走向成功"。
爱迪生是史上最富创造力最多产的科学家。这并不是巧合。他一生申请了1097项专利，当今世界的
发展大半要归功于他。史上最成功最富创造力的科学家，也是失败次数最多的科学家。这并不是巧
合。还有Dean Simonton的研究，等我们谈到完美主义时会精讲。Dean Simonton的研究证明史上最成
功的科学家与艺术家，也是失败次数最多的。"Babe"Ruth是职业生涯中全垒打次数最多的球手，他
也是三振出局最多的。其中有5个赛季，三振出局次数最多。史上最成功的人往往是失败次数最多
的。这一句话我会反复在课堂上重复。学会失败，从失败中学习，学会失败，从失败中学习，成功
别无他法，学习如何工作别无他法。要学习如何在科学，政治或艺术界取得成功，别无他法。正如
Dean Simonton指出的那样，纵观历史，那些有过最多次挫折，最多次失败尝试的艺术家，也是最终
看来最成功的艺术家。成功没有捷径。只是坐下来思考，构想和相信是不够的。我们要做的比这多
得多。
乐观主义和悲观主义
【00:45:35 - 01:07:09】
Martin Seligman,considered father of positive psychology, has done a lot of work on optimism and
pessimism. And here is what he found. What he found was that when it comes to goal setting, pessimists are
realistic in terms of their short term goals as well as in terms of their long term goals. That's good thing to be
a realistic. Short term goal as well as long term goal realistic. Where as optimists are realistic,sorry,optimists
on the other hand,are unrealistic when it comes to their short term goals, but are realistic when it comes to
their long term goals. Why is that? Well,let's look at the model again. So let's take the pessimists first. They
have certain goal,and they have low expectations, low levels of beliefs,they don't think they would do well.
Low levels of motivation,their mind looks for consistency, and their performance is usually according to
their beliefs and expectations. And the interpretation is,I told you so. I told you I couldn't do well here. And
then everyone else in a chorus says,yes,you told us so. How wonderfully realistic of you. But then
sometimes a pessimist succeeds beyond his or her expectations. And then what happens? The interpretation
is,low levels of beliefs, so the interpretation is,well,it was lucky, it was because Mars was in front of Venus,
and that only happens once every 50 years,won't happen again. Or,it was my lucky day,or,she just played
very poorly today. And then,the mind looking for consistency, they go around that loop again and again, and
then become realistic once more. Unsuccessfully realistic,but realistic. So they're realistic in the short term as
well as in the long term.
MartinSeligman 他被认为是积极心理学之父，做了一些有关乐观主义和悲观主义的研究。他发现，
他发现，就目标设定而言，悲观主义者不论在他们的短期目标还是长期目标上都很现实，现实是好
事，短期目标和长期目标都很现实。而乐观主义者很现实，抱歉，乐观主义者与之相反，在他们的
短期目标设定上并不现实，但对于他们的长期目标就很现实，这是怎么回事?让我们再来看这个模
型，我们先来看悲观主义者。他们有某个目标，他们的期望低，信念不高，他们不认为自己能做
好，积极性低，他们的大脑寻求一致，他们的表现通常取决于他们的信念和期望。他们的理解是，
我早跟你说了，我早就跟你说了我做不好。于是其他人都异口同声说是的，你早就跟我们说了，你
这样现实真是好啊。但有时悲观主义者超出了自身的期望，取得了成功，那么又会怎么样呢?这时的
解释是，低水平的信念。那么解释就是，只是走运而已，是因为火星转到了金星的前面，50年难得
一遇，不会再发生了。或者，今天是我的幸运日，或者是因为她今天表现得不好。于是，大脑在寻
求一致，一次又一次地重复这个循环。然后再一次变得现实，不成功的现实，但是现实。于是他们
在短期目标上，同样也在长期目标上很现实。

Let's look at the optimist now. The optimist starts with high levels of beliefs, high levels of
expectations,motivation,incredibly high. The mind looking for consistency,performance,not so good, not as
good as the expectations were. In other words,unrealistic. However,the interpretation,because of high levels
of beliefs, the subjective interpretation is, OK,so,what if I learn from it? This is an opportunity; I've actually
got better this time. What if I learn? And they still have high levels of beliefs and high levels of expectations.
Motivation is high,the mind looks for consistency, they perform,still not good, not as good as they
expected,unrealistic. But the interpretation,still,what if I learn from it? I've gone even better this time. I've
shown what doesn't work. And they continue. But then comes the quarrels from the outside and says, "come
on,really,why can't you be realistic like your good brother or sister,the pessimist." But they believed that they
can do it, and they continue to persist and to work hard again and again. 5 times,10 times,sometimes 5000
even 10000 times, until they bring the "unrealistic reality" and make it realistic to match their beliefs over
time. So even though in the short term,the reality may not match, I may run the mile for the next 10 years in
4 minutes and 12 seconds or 4 minutes and 2 seconds. But I'll get there eventually and make my unrealistic
"expectations" and goals realistic. Through a lot of failure,through a lot of hard work, through a lot of
persistence.
我们现在来看乐观主义者。乐观主义者一开始有着很高的信念，很高的期望，积极性非常高，他们
的大脑寻求一致性。表现没那么好，没期望中的那么好，换言之就是不现实。但是，由于信念水平
很高，他们的解释，其主观的解释是，好吧，如果我从中吸取教训了会怎么样?这是个机会，我这次
其实做得有进步了，就当吸取教训了。他们依然保持着很高的信念，很高的期望，积极性很高，大
脑寻求积极性。他们的表现依然不好，没有他们所期望的那么好，不现实。但解释依然是，如果我
从中吸取教训了会怎么样?我这次做得好多了，我指出了哪些方法是不可行的，然后他们继续。但然
后外界的声音就会争吵说，"不是吧，真的么，你为什么就不能现实点，像你的好兄弟或者好姐妹，
悲观主义者那样"。但是他们相信他们能做到。于是一次又一次地继续坚持，继续努力工作。5次、
10次、有时5000次、甚至10000次。久而久之，直到他们带来了"不现实的现实"并让它成真，和他们
的信念相一致了。所以即使在短期看来，现实可能不一致。我可能接下来10年跑一英里，都要4分12
秒或者4分2秒，但我终将到达目标，让我不现实的"期望"和目标变成现实。经历很多失败，经历很
多努力付出，经历很多坚持不懈。

What Seligman shows about optimism and pessimism is not that it's not just some pollyannaish feel-good,
you know conceive and believe,kind of approach. Rather,it's about how we interpret events. So for
example,how do I interpret my failure? As end of the story,catastrophe, give it up? Or as an opportunity for
success? So he distinguishes,and we'll talk about it more next time, he distinguishes between interpreting an
event as permanent or temporary. I just didn't create light from electricity,so that could mean, well,it's not
possible and I'll never do it or it could mean, well,this is another step towards success: showing what doesn't
work. I've just being turned down from a job that I wanted, well,it means I'll never find a job or that's a
temporary setback. Let's see what I can learn. Let's see how I can home my search and find, eventually,my
ideal position. It's also about being pervasive or specific. Pessimists look at things that's being... the
negatives,being pervasive. Well,I'm just not a good scientist versus... well,I just wasn't able to get this
experiment right this time. Or if I get a poor grade on an exam,I'm just stupid. Pervasive,everything,all or
nothing. Versus I just didn't do well here on this specific exam. What can I learn from it and how can I do
better next time. This is what optimism and pessimism is. And it can be learned. A lot of research in this
area...showing how learning to interpret events subjectively as optimists leads to much higher success.
Seligman就乐观主义和悲观主义的内容所展现的并非只是某种遇事过分乐观的自我感觉良好。你知
道，构想然后相信之类的方式，而是关于我们如何解释事件。比如，我如何解释我的失败?最后的结
论是，大惨败，放弃？还是一个通向成功的机会?所以他，我们下次课会谈到，他把解释一件事分为
是永久的还是暂时的。我没发明电灯，那么这可能意味着这是不可能的，我永远也做不到，或者也
可能意味着这是向成功的更进一步，告诉我了什么是不可行的。我想要的一份工作被拒了，这意味
着我永远都找不到工作，或者这是个暂时的挫折，来看看我学到了什么，来看看我怎么样能重新寻
找并最终找到我理想中的职位。也要看人的态度是一概而论还是有针对性，悲观主义者认为事物
是，他们一概以消极眼光看事情，我不是个好的科学家还是，我只是这一次的这个实验没做好，或
者如果考试得了低分，我就是白痴。看什么都是一概而论，不是全部就是一无所有。而相反可以认
为我只是具体这一次考试没考好，我从中能吸取什么教训并且下次如何能考好。这就是乐观主义和
悲观主义，而这种态度可以习得。很多有关这方面的研究表明学习主观地像乐观主义者解释事件可
以获得更高层次的成功。

Some of you may recognize Matt Biondi. 1988 Seoul Olympics. Many people thought that he could equal
Mark Spitz records of seven gold medals. First race,silver medal. Huge disappointment. Second race,bronze
medal. Huge disappointment. Everyone I remembered that very distinctly. People talking about how he falls
under pressure, how he is not the person we thought he is. Martin Seligman at that point said "no,he's going
to succeed" Why? Because he measured him and many other athletes on their levels of optimism and
pessimism. And Matt Biondi was a constant optimist. And he knew he would interpret these "failures",I
mean,you know bronze and silver medals in the Olympics,failures,right? But these relative for him expected
to win seven golds,failures, he would interpret them not as permanent. "I choke. I can't make it in the
Olympics" as pervasive "I can't swim well anymore and win" to temporary and specific,which he did exactly
that and won the next five gold medals. Surprising many people,not Seligman and his research team who
knew exactly what his interpretation style would be following these "failures".
你们中的而有些人可能知道Matt Biondi 1988年汉城奥运会，许多人都认为他能追平Mark Spitz7块金
牌的记录。第一场比赛，银牌，巨大的失望。第二场比赛，铜牌，巨大的失望。大家，我记得很清
楚，人们谈论着他如何受到压力的影响，他不是我们所期望的那个人。Martin Seligman在那时
说"不，他将会成功"。为什么?因为他衡量过他和许多其他运动员，在乐观与悲观方面的水平，Matt
Biondi一直是个乐观主义者。他知道他会将这些"失败"理解为，我指的是，奥运会上的银牌和铜牌，
算是失败，对吧?这些相对于他期望赢得7块金牌来说是失败。但他不会把它们视为永久性的失败。
把"我发挥失常，我不能在奥运会上实现目标"视为 "我再也不能游好泳和赢比赛了"。而只是视为暂
时的和特定的失败，他也正是那么做的，并赢下了接下来的5块金牌。这让很多人吃惊，但Seligman
和他的研究小组没有，他们非常清楚他的理解方式，屡"败"屡战。

Also it associated with social and physical mental health. For example,our immune system,psychological
and physical immune system is actually stronger as a result of being optimists. Resilience levels,a lot of
research by Karen Reivich shows that if you teach people to interpret things positively, optimistically,they
are much more likely to succeed. Those of you who are interested in more about this,her book, The
Resilience Factor,Karen Reivich,fantastic book, where she talks about programs implemented where within a
few weeks kids are immune to the experience of depression two years hence... People who learn to be
optimistic and she teaches them in a short period as two weeks compare that to the five years of the
Cambridge Summerville Study. Within as little as two weeks,people who were taught optimistic
interpretation style become happier, those who learn it are eight times less likely to experience depression.
Eight times less likely to experience depression, if you simply learn a different interpretation style. I haven't
failed 5000 times; I've succeeded in showing what doesn't work. So what if I didn't do well now, I will do
better next time or the time after that. People who learn to interpret things more positively actually live
longer. And we'll talk about some of this research. You'll read about a bit of it,the Nun Study and so on.
People who interpret things positively or more optimistic actually live longer. Now that does not mean that
all pessimists die young and all optimists die old. That's just one of the factors that goes into the equation,
there's many other things. You know,you don't want,there is also unrealistic optimism that we'll talked about
it in a minute. You know a person is optimist and says, "I'll live to 120 no matter what"and smokes,you
know, 120 cigarettes a day would probably not live to 120. So it's not just about the belief,but a lot of it is.
And finally,as I mentioned time and again,it can be learned, and we'll talk about how it can be learned and
how we can learn, and you'll do it whether it's in your response paper, not for this week,but for the next
week, as well as in sections,as well as by yourselves. A technique that can be learned and can have all these
positive effects.
这同样也和社会和身心健康有关。比如我们的免疫系统，心理上和生理上的免疫系统，因为乐观而
实际上增强了适应力水平。Karen Reivich的很多研究表明，如果你教人们积极地，乐观地理解事
物，他们就更有可能成功。如果有谁有兴趣了解更多这方面的内容，看她的书《适应力因素》，
Karen Reivich写的，很不错的书。她在书里讲到了一个为期几个星期的项目，孩子们此后两年都对
忧郁的经历免疫。那些学习如何乐观的人，她在短短两周时间里对他们进行指导，并和剑桥
Summerville五年的研究做对比。在短短两周时间里，那些被教导乐观地理解事物的人变得更快乐，
学过的人患上忧郁的可能性减小了八倍，有忧郁经历的可能性减小了八倍，只是简单地学习一种不
同的理解方式。我没有失败5000次，我成功地发现了什么是不可行的。所以如果我这次没做好，我
下次或者下下次会做得更好。学会更积极地理解事物的人，事实上活得更长。我们将会谈到一些这
方面的研究，你会读到一些这方面的内容，修女研究等等。积极地理解事物或者更乐观的人，事实
上活得更长。那并不是说所有的悲观主义者都短寿，而所有的乐观主义者都长寿，那只是这个等式
里的因素之一，还有其他的因素。你知道，也有不现实的乐观主义，我们稍后会谈到。你知道，一
个乐观主义者说，"无论如何我会活到120岁"他有吸烟的习惯，但一天抽120支烟很可能活不到120
岁。所以这不只是只是信念，还有很多因素。最后，正如我屡次提到的，它是可以习得的。我们将
讨论要如何学习它，我们能怎么学。而在你的课后论文里，你们将研究这个问题。不是这周的，是
下周的论文，或者是通过分组作业，或者独自完成。一种能被习得，并有所有这些积极效应的方
法。

Okay. There's a problem here though. You know,how do I distinguish between this and realistic optimism
and unrealistic optimism. Detached optimism that is advocated in for example for self-help movement. Is
everything that I think of I achieve and conceive and becomes a reality? Is my self-concept my destiny and
my only destiny? Or is there such a thing as unrealistic beliefs? And there is such a thing as unrealistic
beliefs. Here is an example. Her name was Rena,she was a showgirl,at least to me,she was. Rena and I had a
great deal in common. We were both in our teens, I was twelve. She was fourteen. We both were in our fives.
She was 5'6. I was 5'1. I was in love with Rena. Rena too was in love with herself. Now,just as a side note,I
have a wonderful mother, and amazing mother who believes in me. And in fact when the three of us. We
were three brothers and sisters would come home from school. We would very often talked to our mom
about everything that was going on in school,good and bad. So I came home after I realized that I was truly
and madly in love with Rena and that she was the one for me. I came home and talked to my mom about it.
And I told her,"Mom,I love her so." So she said," what's the problem?" And I explained to her that she was
older that I was and all the big boys in the school were interested in her, that she was much taller than I was.
And my mother believed in me and went on self-fulfilling prophecy campaign. And though she had never
read Napoleon Hill, she said to me,"Tal,whatever you conceive, whatever you believe,you can achieve." And
though she had never read Branden,she said to me, "Tal,your self-concept is destiny. And Rena is your
destiny." And she told me that if I truly,truly believed that I could, that Rena would want me. She really
would want me. And my mom inspired me and made me believe in myself. So I went ahead to approach
Rena,and I prepared for it. I really prepared for it. Though I wasn't shaving at that time,I put on aftershave.
And I continued. I can do it. I know I can. And I approach Rena,but then the music stopped. And though I
had very high expectations, and though I envisioned success. I closed my eyes and I saw myself succeeding.
She was not interested. She didn't want me. However,however,we became very good friends. In fact so good
that she would tell me about all her shallow and tall boyfriends. Now when my mom told me that she really
believed in it, that she thought I was,you know that she told me this in Yiddish and she said "foreign
language" which means in Yiddish "you're a big find." I was really my,you know,really, I was my Jewish
mother's kosher Pygmalion. So bad,yeah. You know,that took me a lot of time to think about, you'd better
appreciate it. But...thank you,thank you. But it didn't work. And again,don't get me wrong,I'm very grateful
to my mom. I literally had 24/7 Marva Collins in my house. I owe so much to my mom. However,in this
case, it probably was not the realistic belief. So what is realistic? How do we identify what is realistic and
what is not?
好吧，但是有一个问题，我要如何区分这两者，现实的乐观主义和不现实的乐观主义。用盲目乐观
主义做例子，对于自助运动而言，是不是所有我认为我能实现的，我构想的都能变成现实?我的自我
概念是否我的且是我唯一的命运?或是否存在所谓的不现实信念?确实存在这样一个东西。下面是个
例子，她的叫Rena 是个歌舞女郎，至少对我来说她是。Rena和我有很多共同点，我们都十几岁，我
12岁，她14岁，我们都5英尺高。她5英尺6英寸，我5英尺1英寸，我爱上了Rena，Rena也爱她自己。
现在，只是做个边注，我有一个很棒的妈妈，很好的妈妈，她相信我。而事实上当我们三个，我们
三兄妹放学回家时，我们经常会跟妈妈讲学校里发生的所有事，好事还有坏事。我有一天回家，意
识到我是真心地，疯狂地爱上Rena 她就是我的真命天女。我回到家，告诉了我妈妈。我告诉她，"妈
妈，我那么地爱她"。于是她说，"那问题是什么?"我就跟她解释了她比我大，学校里的那些大男生也
对她有兴趣。她比我高多了，而我妈妈对我有信心，她采用了自我应验预言的那一套，尽管她从没
读过Napoleon Hill。她对我说"Tal，只要你想得到，只要你相信，你就能做到"。尽管她从没读过
Branden，她对我说"Tal，你的自我概念就是命运，而Rena就是你的命运"。她告诉我如果我真的真的
认为我可以，相信Rena会喜欢我，她就真的会喜欢我。我妈妈激励了我，让我相信自己。于是我去
接近Rena，我做好了准备，我认真做好了准备。虽然我那时还没有刮胡子，但我喷了些须后水，然
后我继续行动。我可以做到，我知道我能。我走进Rena，但这时音乐停止了。尽管我期望很高，尽
管我预想我能成功，我闭上眼睛，我看到自己成功了。她没有兴趣，她不喜欢我，但是，但是，我
们成为了很好的朋友。事实上我们关系那么好，她会跟我谈论她那些肤浅的高大的男朋友们。当我
妈妈告诉我她真的对我有信心，她认为我是-- 她用意第绪语对我说，她说(意第绪语)，在意第绪语里
的意思是"你是个大发现"。我真的，真的就是。我那犹太母亲心中符合犹太教规的皮格马利翁，好
烂的比喻，我知道。那句话花了我不少时间想出来的，你们最好表示一下喜欢它。但是...谢谢，谢
谢，但这没有用。再一次，别误解我，我非常感激我妈妈，简直就像是全天候的驻家MarvaCollins。
我是那么地感激我妈妈，但是，这一次，这可能不是现实的信念。那么什么是现实的?我们如何区分
什么是现实的，什么不是?

Here are some ideas to help us do so. The Stockdale paradox. It's about finding the tension, reconciling the
tension and it's not easy. Again,I'm not going to give you a formula now to tell you: OK,here is...calculate
this,and if it's above seven, go ahead with green; below seven,probably not so. There is no formula. But here
is,just a heuristic, something to think about when you think about beliefs. James Stockdale was admiral.
James Stockdale was the highest ranking prisoner of war in the... in the Vietnam War. And he started to
notice a phenomenon. He was there for years. Eventually got out and live to tell the tale many others did not.
And he saw many people survive,many people not survive. The very harsh conditions of the prisoner. What
he was that the people who survived had two characteristics. First of all,they believed that they would get
out, they had faith that one day they would be free. They would get to see their family,their friends. And this
faith kept them going. At the same time,and this is the second component, they had realistic beliefs and
evaluation of the situation. If any one of these two components were missing, they were unlikely to survive.
If they didn't have faith and they didn't believed it they would survive,they were very likely to die in the
harsh conditions. On the other hand,if they thought that they would get out by this coming Christmas,and
really believed that they would get out by this coming Christmas, they were also less likely to survive.
Because they didn't get out by this coming Christmas, and then they were desponded,resigned,helpless, and
very often,they died. So it was the two components,believe that you would get out, but at the same time
know that you need to deal with reality and that it's tough. Here is what James Stockdale said, "you must
never confuse faith that you would prevail in the end which you can never afford to lose with the discipline
to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality whatever they might be." Realistic optimism. Now
the thing is that you may be wrong at times. And sometimes you may really believe in something, and
believe it that you have realistic expectations and not succeed. But as we talked about...And as we'll talk
about in a few minutes, it doesn't matter that much. Because even if we don't success we just bounce back
up. And continue working hard. The key though is as much as possible,to attain this balance. What Maslow
calls The Graceful Integration between high level of beliefs and connection to reality.
下面是一些对我们有帮助的想法，斯托克代尔悖论，它认为要找出矛盾，让矛盾化解，这并不容
易。我不会给你们一个公式，告诉你们，好吧，就这样，算这个，如果是大于7的，就没有问题，低
于7的，可能就不是这样。不存在什么公式。但是，仅作为一个启发式，当你思考信念时，存在一些
需要思考的东西。
JamesStockdale是名海军上将，他是越南战争被俘人员里级别最高的战俘。他开始注意到一个现象，
他在那关了很多年，最终被释放并得以活着向人们讲述往事，而其他许多战俘没能做到。他看到许
多人幸存，许多人死亡，战俘的生存条件非常恶劣。他发现那些活下来的人有两个特点，第一个，
他们相信他们能出去，他们坚信终有一天他们会重获自由，他们会再见到自己的家人，朋友，这种
信念支持着他们走下去。同时，也就是第二个特点，他们有着现实的信念，能对情况做出估计。如
果这两点有一点没做到，他们就不大可能活下来。如果他们没有信念，他们不相信他们会活下来，
他们很可能在恶劣的环境下死去。另一方面，如果他们认为，他们能在这年的圣诞节之前就出去，
并真的相信他们能在这年的圣诞节之前离开，他们同样也不大可能幸存。因为他们这年的圣诞节没
有被放出去，他们失望，气馁，无助，通常情况下，他们会死去。所以关键是这两点，相信你会出
去，但同时明白自己需要应对现实，残酷的现实。James Stockdale如是说，"你不能把坚信自己最终
会在，输不起的情形下取得胜利的信念，同直面现有残酷现实的行为相混淆，无论是何种残酷现
实。现实的乐观主义，现在的问题是你可能有时会错，有时你可能真的相信什么，相信你有现实的
期望，但没有成功。但就像我们谈到的那样...我们接下来会谈到，这也没太大关系，因为即使没有
成功，我们能很快恢复动力，继续努力工作，而关键就是尽可能地保持平衡，这就是Maslow所说的
高水平信念，和与现实联系间的完美整合。

No prescription here. But just a heuristic,something to keep in mind. Positive thinking is not THE secret.
Yes,it's part of the secret. Yes,it's part of the success formula. Yes,it's part of the happiness formula. But it's
not all. False optimism sooner or later means disillusionment, anger and hopelessness. Here is the secret of
success. This is the secret proven by research. Thousand of years of research and successful people in
different cultures,in different places and in different ages. It's optimism,passion and hard work. It'll be very
hard for you to find successful men and women through out history who did not have all three.
Optimism,belief,faith that they can do well, that they can succeed. Passion,love for what they were doing.
And hard work. There is no substitute for hard work as Edison said. These 3 components. The
secret...simple,straighforward. You know it all. Remember what I said during 2nd class. I'm not going to
teach you much new. I hope to remind you what you already know. Optimism,passion and hard work. Does
luck play a role? Absolutely. Jefferson,"I am a great believer in luck, and I find that the harder I work,the
luckier I get." There is actually science behind luck. And you'll read about it in the Luck Factor. Where
people who have these 3 components, who believe they can do well, who love what they do and work hard,
actually find more luck.
这个不是答案，只是一个启发，让你们记在脑子里，积极的思考不是秘密本身，是的，它是这个秘
密的一部分。是的，它是成功公式的一部分。是的，它是幸福公式的一部分，但并非全部。错误的
乐观主义迟早意味着幻灭，愤怒和无望。成功的秘密是，这是一个经研究证实的秘密。多年对不同
文化，不同地方，不同年龄的成功人士的研究。这个秘密是乐观，热情和勤奋。纵观历史，你很难
找到哪个成功人士是不具备这三个品质的。乐观、信念、坚信他们能做好，坚信他们能成功。热
情，热爱他们从事的事业，并且勤奋工作。正如爱迪生所说，没有什么能代替勤奋。这三个要素就
是这个秘密。很简单，很明确，你们都知道。还记得我第2次课上说的么，我不会教你们新的知识，
我希望使你们想起你们已经知道的知识。乐观，热情和勤奋。那运气是否也有作用呢?当然了。
Jefferson说"我非常相信运气，我发现我越努力工作，我的运气就越好"。运气背后实则也有科学奥
妙。你们会在《幸运要素》里读到。在书中，拥有这三要素的人，相信自己能成功的人，热爱自己
的工作并勤奋努力的人，事实上获得了更多的运气，用梭罗的话说就是不经意间有了更多的运气。

自尊水平和幸福
【01:07:09 - 01:17:54 】
In the words of Thoreau in Common Hours. Okay,so why don't all the parents teach us to have high
expectations? If it's so good for us,if it's related to success, to happiness,to physical well-being, why don't all
our parents just say to us whatever we work, you can succeed,you can do it. If you dream about it,you can do
it. Why did very often parents and people who care about us lower our expectations? Because they are
concerned about our happiness. They are concerned about our self esteem. You see,there is a lot of
belief...People believe that high expectations naturally lead to disappointment. So...high expectations lead to
disappointment. And it sounds right. I mean,this is the formula that was written in the 19th century by
William James. He said that self-esteem is equal to our success over pretensions. In other words,our
achievement... how much we succeed,how much we achieve over what we pretend or what we aspire to,what
our goals are. In other words,if we have high expectations,high pretensions, we are much more likely to hurt
our self-esteem. For example,let's say my aspiration,my pretension, my expectation is to make 4 thousand
dollars a month. Again this...I just throw in a numeric example here because it's easier to understand. Let's
say my hope is to make 4 thousand dollars a month. That's my pretension. But in fact what I end up making
is 2 thousand dollars a month. According to William James' formula,my self-esteem, and as we know self-
esteem and happiness are very highly co-related and related. My self-esteem,my happiness level according to
this formula is a half. On the other hand,let's say my pretensions, my expectation is to make 1.5 thousand
dollars a month and in fact I make 1.5 thousand dollars a month. According to this formula,my self-esteem,
my happiness level is 1. So here even though I'm making less, again I'm using a numeric example here, you
can think about other examples. Even though I'm actually making less here, my self-esteem and my
happiness are higher. So lower you expectations.
好的，那么为什么不是所有的家长都教我们要有高的期望呢?如果这对我们来说有好处，如果这和成
功有关，和幸福，和身体健康有关的话，为什么不是所有家长都对我们说不管你们做什么，你都能
成功，你都做到。如果你梦想，你就能做到。为什么父母和其他关心我们的人常常要降低我们的期
望呢?因为他们关心我们的快乐水平，他们关心我们的自尊。有很多种信念...人们相信，高期望自然
地会导致失望。所以，高期望导致失望，这听起来是对的，这就是William James在19世纪写下的公
式，他说自尊等于我们的成功除以抱负。换言之就是，我们的成就...我们有多成功，我们取得了多
少除以，我们假装或期望所能取得的，我们的目标。换言之，如果我们有很高的期望，很高的抱
负，我们就有更大的可能伤害自己的自尊。例如，比如说我的渴求，我的抱负。我的期望是一个月
挣4千美元。重申一下...我只是举了个数字化的例子，这样便于理解。让我们假设我的希望是一个月
挣4000美元，那是我的抱负，但实际上结果我一个月挣到了2000美元。根据William James的公式，
我的自尊，而我们都知道自尊和快乐是紧密相关的。我的自尊，我的快乐水平。根据这个公式便只
有一半，另一方面，假设我的抱负，我的期望是一个月挣1500美元，而事实上我一个月挣了1500美
元。根据这个公式，我的自尊，我的快乐水平是1，尽管我挣的更少了。我这里举的是数字化的例
子，你们可以想想其他例子。尽管我实际上挣得少了，我的自尊和我的快乐程度却变高了，所以要
降低你的期望。

Not so. What was found in the last 35 years of research is that this formula is actually wrong. That's not the
case. Here is how it actually works. Let's say we have a graph. And this is time. And here is my self esteem
levels and happiness levels. And let's at start off around my base level which is here. And then I had a mid-
term in Positive Psych. And I don't do as well as I expected to. What happens to my self-esteem? What
happens to my happiness? Of course it'll go down. It's natural we all want to succeed or most people want to
succeed. So it goes down if it's below my expectations but very quickly as the research by Daniel Gilbert
shows on effective forecasting... very quickly we go back up to our base level of happiness. And then a week
later I have another mid-term in say,maths 55. And I ace it. I get much higher grade than I expected. And
what happens to my self-esteem and happiness? It goes up. But then very quickly it goes back down again.
And then let's say I'm 12 years old and I walk down the street and I meet Rena and I ask her out. And she
says no. What happens to my to my self-esteem and happiness? It goes down. Slightly. And then very
quickly it goes back up again. And then lucky me. I walk down the street. I think I see Rena but there is
something different about her. And it turns out she has a twin sister. And I ask her out. And she says no. And
what happens once again? Slightly down. But then I recover and go back up again. And you won't believe it.
They are identical triplets. And I meet the 3rd sister and she says yes. She says I love you too. And what
happens to my to my self-esteem and happiness? It goes up slightly right? Even taller than this. But then
very quickly back down to base level and so on and so on.
其实不尽然，过去35年的研究发现，这个公式实际上是错的。情况不是这样的，这才是实际的情
况。让我们画一张图，横坐标是时间，纵坐标是我的自尊水平和快乐水平，让我们从我的基础水平
开始，就在这里。然后我参加了积极心理学的期中考试，我考得没有我期望的好，我的自尊会发生
什么变化?我的幸福会发生什么变化?当然它会下降，这很自然。我们都想成功或者说大多数人想成
功，所以如果低于我的期望它就下降了。但很快，如Daniel Gilbert有关有效预测的研究表明，很快
我们又回到我们的基础快乐水平。接着一个星期后，我又考了，比如说55号数学课的期中考试，我
考得很好，比我期望的成绩还要高，我的自尊和快乐曲线又会怎么变化?它上升了，但然后很快它又
降下来。然后我们假设我是12岁，我在街上走，我遇到了Rena，我约她出来玩。她拒绝了，我的自
尊和快乐水平会发生什么变化?它下降了，轻微地，然后很快它又重新上升。然后我很幸运，我走在
街上，我以为我看到了Rena，但她有些不同，原来是她的孪生妹妹。我约她出去，她拒绝了，再一
次，发生了什么变化?轻微地下降，但然后我恢复了，又再次上升。你们是不会相信的，她们是三胞
胎。我碰到了老三，她答应了，她说我也爱你。我的自尊和快乐水平发生了什么变化?它轻微地上
升，对吧?甚至高出了黑板，但然后很快又下降回基础水平。如此反复。

The vicissitudes of life... whether I get tenured or not tenured, whether I win the lottery or lose money. The
ups and downs around a base level of well-being. Now there is good news here and there is bad news here.
The good news is I can take more risks. It's not the end of world if she says no. It's not the end of the world if
I fail here or if I don't get my dream job. It's okay. I'll recover. We all do. So that's the good news. The bad
news is...so I'm stuck? So I was born with this base level according to my genes and I can't really improve?
How do I raise this base level of happiness? And it's possible. And we'll talk about... the whole course is
about raising the base level of happiness. But here is one finding from specifically the research on self-
esteem. On one thing you can do right now when you get out of class to raise self-esteem and that is to cope
as opposed to avoid. To cope meaning to put yourself on the line. To take risks not when you're in your panic
zone but when you're in your stretch zone. To risk failure. To handle things,to deal things, to confront things
that are important to you. To try out for that play. To speak out in session if you haven't. To go out to a place
where you really want to go but never really try. To try. Because people who cope overtime have the same or
sometimes more ups and downs. But their ups and downs look like this. Still ups and downs. Permission to
be human. But the base level increases.
生活中的悲欢离合。不管我是得到了终身职位还是没得到，不管我买彩票是中奖了还是输钱了，在
幸福的一个基础水平上下起起伏伏。现在有个好消息也有个坏消息，好消息是我能承担更大的风
险，她拒绝我不是世界末日。我失败了或者没能得到理想的工作，也不是世界末日。没有关系，我
会恢复，我们都会，所以这是好消息。坏消息是，我就卡在这了?我根据我的基因生来就是这个基础
水平，并且不能提高吗?我如何提高这个快乐的基础水平?这是可能的，我们会讲到。整个课程就是
关于如何提高快乐的基础水平，但这有一个发现，是从专门针对自尊的研究中得来的，你下课之后
马上能做的一个实验来提高自尊，就是去面对而非逃避。去面对意味着把自己置身于风险线上，不
是要你在恐慌时冒险，而是在你放松时放手一搏，去承担失败的风险，去解决，去处理，去面对那
些对你来说重要的事情，参加戏剧试演，讨论时说出未曾表述出的观点，去你十分想去却从没去过
的地方，去尝试。因为那些经常面对问题的人有着同样，或者有时频繁的起起伏伏，但他们的起伏
线条是这样的，依旧是起起伏伏，和普通人一样，但基础水平提高了。

Why does the base level increase? I'm gonna end here. Why does the base level increase when we cope
rather than avoid? For 3 reason. First self perception theory. Daryl Bem... I think from either Dartmouth or
Cornell... what Daryl Bem showed was that we derived conclusion about ourselves in the same way that we
derived conclusion about others. So for example if I see a person going up to people and initiating a
conversation or speaking up in session or trying out for a play and trying again and again. My conclusion
about this person is this person is courageous. This person must have high self-esteem. And I may derive the
conclusion about myself in exactly the same way. By seeing myself behaving a certain way, I reach a
conclusion about my self-esteem or benevolence or generosity or whatever it is. Self perception theory. And
if I cope,if I try things out then I see that this is a person with courage. This is a person who tries. And my
conclusion about myself would be I must have high self-esteem. And my self-esteem as well as happiness
level overtime will actually increase. Self perception theory. We derive conclusion about ourselves in the
same way we derive conclusion about others. Meaning by looking at behavior. When we fail after coping we
realize that the actual pain that comes with failure is far less than the pain we imagine and that we associate
with failure. I just got over it. Okay,so I didn't do well in here or she said no. but I got over it. Whereas I
imagine it in my mind I think it'll last forever. Just like those tenured or not tenured professors thought that
their pay will last forever whereas it goes away. So when I realize the pain of actual failure is far less than
the pain associated with failure, I become more confident. I can handle it. I'm actually much more resilient
than I thought I was. And my self-esteem increases. My happiness as a result increases too. And finally there
is more success because there is no other way to succeed. There is no other way in terms of learning how to
walk. There is no other way in terms of succeeding in art or in science or in business or in politics. Learn to
fail or fail to learn. I'll see you on Thursday.
为什么基础水平提高了?我将以此结束本节课。为什么当我们不是逃避而是面对时基础水平提高了?
三个原因。首先是自我知觉理论，Daryl Bem，我不记得他是达特茅斯学院还是康奈尔大学的了。
Daryl Bem指出我们得出关于自己的结论，和我们得出关于他人的结论的方式是一样的。比如说看到
一个人走到大家面前，发起谈话或者在会上发言，或者去参加一出戏的试演并一次又一次地尝试，
我关于这个人的结论就是这人很有勇气，这人肯定有很高的自尊。我可能也是用同样的方式，推出
关于自己的结论。通过观察自己某些方式的行为，我会得到关于自己自尊或者仁慈或者慷慨或者其
他方面的结论，自我知觉理论，如果我面对了，我尝试了，那我就认为这是一个有勇气的人，这是
一个敢于尝试的人，得到关于自己的结论就是我肯定有很高的自尊，我的自尊还有幸福水平，久而
久之就会上升，自我知觉理论。我们得出关于自己的结论，和我们得出关于他人的结论的方式是一
样的，就是通过观察行为。我们在面对失败后会意识到，真正来自于失败的痛苦远小于我们想象
的。我们认为与失败有关的痛苦，我克服失败，是的，我是没做好，或者她是拒绝了我，但我克服
了。但我一直在想的话，我就会认为它将一直持续。正如那些终身职位或者非终身职位的教授，以
为他们的薪水将永远不变，其实并非如此。所以当我意识到实际上的痛苦，比和失败有关的痛苦远
远要小时，我变得更自信了，我能应付了。我实际上比自己想象中要更有适应力，我的自尊水平上
升了，我的快乐水平也随之升高，最后还有更多的成功。因为成功别无二法，学习走路没有别的方
法，在艺术上或科学上或商业上或政治上，取得成功没有别的方法。学习失败，从失败中学习。我
们星期四再见。