Escenarios
Biweekly bulletin of strategic analysis addressed to the Venezuelan civil society
NUMBER 19 • SEPTEMBER 30TH, 2024
WHAT’S NEW?
The intense repression and persecution of the democratic
leadership has meant that the most important events of the last
15 days have taken place on the international stage. Juan Diego
Quesada, correspondent for the Andean region for the Spanish
daily El País, interpreted the current situation: “Venezuela, given
the current situation, seems to be entering a stage of Madurista
anaesthesia. Edmundo’s exile was a peak and now it is entering a
valley. The international community is hitting a wall, the opposition
is trying everything but nothing moves an inch. Hibernation”.
On 09.17.24, the National Assembly approved a document in
which it encourages “the national executive to evaluate, within
a peremptory period of time, the rupture of diplomatic and
commercial relations with the Kingdom of Spain, as a reciprocal
action for the rude and interfering proposal» of the Spanish
Congress against «Venezuelan constitutionality”. On the other
hand, in a non-binding resolution, the European Parliament
approved (with a vote of 309 in favour, 201 against and 12
abstentions), the recognition of Edmundo González as the
legitimate president of Venezuela. On 09.26.24 Maduro asked the
military high command to reinforce anti-terrorist plans, assuring
that “there is full proof of the plans of the CIA and the Spanish CNI
against peace and security”.
On 09.23.24 the Federal Chamber of Buenos Aires ordered the
“immediate arrest” of Nicolás Maduro and Diosdado Cabello “for
serious human rights violations”. They were found responsible for
organising a systematic plan to detain, kidnap and torture citizens.
The unanimous decision was made by the judges of Chamber
1 of the Buenos Aires Federal Court, Mariano Llorens, Pablo
Bertuzzi and Leopoldo Bruglia, a week after the request made by
prosecutors José Agüero Iturbe and Carlos Stornelli. The measure
also covers more than thirty Venezuelan hierarchs and military
officials, including members of the Armed Forces, the Security
Forces, the Bolivarian National Guard and intelligence agents in
the service of the regime.
In response, that same day, the Venezuelan Supreme Court
of Justice issued an “arrest warrant” against the president of
Argentina, Javier Milei. The measure would be based on an open
investigation for the crimes of Money Laundering, Simulation
of Punishable Acts, Illegitimate Deprivation of Liberty, Illegal
Interference in the Operational Security of Civil Aviation, Disabling
of Aircraft and Association. The case dates back to 2022, when
an airplane of the Venezuelan company Emtrasur landed in
Argentina, where its occupants were arrested. The aircraft was
subsequently delivered to the United States. In addition to Milei,
the Venezuelan court ordered the arrest of Karina Elizabeth Milei,
Secretary of the Presidency, and Patricia Bullrich, Minister of
Security.
On 09.24.24 Gustavo Petro stated that Maduro “will surely take
office on January 10” and also confirmed that on Wednesday,
September 25th, he would meet with his Brazilian counterpart,
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, to address the situation in Venezuela.
A day later, the Colombian Senate, with 48 votes in favor and
6 against, approved a proposal for the country’s presidency to
recognize EGU. There was no further information on whether
the bilateral meeting could take place. On 09.27.24 it was known
that the Venezuelan Foreign Minister, Yván Gil, and the Brazilian
Foreign Minister, Mauro Vieira, met this Thursday on the sidelines
of the UN General Assembly in New York, although no further
details of the content of the dialogue were known.
The Venezuelan crisis was present at the 79th General Assembly of the United Nations,
held from September 23 to 27 in New York. During the debates, Joe Biden (USA),
Javier Milei (Argentina), Gabriel Boric (Chile), Arnoldo André-Tinoco (Costa Rica),
Pedro Sánchez (Spain), Giorgia Meloni (Italy), Laurentino Cortizo (Panama), Santiago
Peña (Paraguay), Luis Lacalle Pou (Uruguay) and Luis Abinader (Dominican Republic)
referred to the situation with its epicenter in Caracas. On the sidelines of the debates,
31 countries signed a document requesting Venezuelan authorities to put an end to
arbitrary detentions and human rights violations. In response to Gabriel Boric’s speech,
Venezuela suspended air flights between Caracas and Santiago de Chile.
The International Independent Fact-Finding Mission on the Bolivarian Republic of
Venezuela released its most recent report. In the document they conclude that, after the
elections, “the State reactivated and intensified the harshest and most violent form of its
repressive machinery”. They added that: “the authorities carried out, in a conscious and
planned manner, actions aimed at dismantling and demobilizing the organized political
opposition; at inhibiting the dissemination of independent information and opinions
critical of the Government, and at impeding peaceful citizen protest. The brutality of the
repression continues to generate a climate of generalized fear in the population”.
On the other hand, on 09.30.24 Margaret Satterthwaite, UN Special Rapporteur on
the Independence of Judges and Lawyers, expressed her deep concern about the
abduction, detention and proceedings against lawyer Perkins Rocha. “I am seriously
concerned that Mr. Rocha may have been subjected to torture and ill-treatment while
his whereabouts were unknown and now that he is being held in the Helicoide, and that
communication with his private defense lawyer and family has not been allowed,” she
stated.
Among the new political prisoners are Spanish tourists Martínez Adasme and José
María Basoa Valdovinos, Milciades Ávila and Edwin Moya, members of María Corina
Machado’s security team and Julio Itriago, from Vente Venezuela.
HOW CAN IT AFFECT THE POSSIBILITY OF RESOLVING THE CONFLICT
THROUGH POLITICAL MECHANISMS?
The next political milestone in the situation of the country will occur on January 10th,
2025, when a new president will be sworn in for the next 6-year term. All the current
decisions of the Venezuelan authorities must be interpreted in function of that date,
when Nicolás Maduro will materialize the disregard of the popular will expressed on July
28th. The ruling party will not make any approach with other actors to question them on
their supposed victory. Evidence suggests that the spaces for political dialogue will be
closed until after January 10th.
The risk is that the international community “normalizes” the Venezuelan situation and
qualifies it as an unsolvable crisis. As part of the effort to keep the conversation alive is
the awarding of the Václav Havel 2024 Prize to María Corina Machado.
WHAT CAN CIVIL SOCIETY DO TO MITIGATE NEGATIVE IMPACTS?
• Take all measures to protect the freedom and integrity of the members of civil
society in the face of the political milestone of January 10th, 2025, in which the
authorities will take all necessary “security” measures to guarantee the swearing in of
Nicolás Maduro.
• Civil society must stimulate the formation of a large and inclusive front in the
struggle for democracy, a political mechanism to redirect the strategy of promoting the
transition from now on, with a human rights perspective.
• Human rights organizations should maintain their documentation work, safeguarding
the security of their sources, and generating mechanisms to continue publicly
denouncing without putting activists and defenders on the ground at risk.
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Translation: To read previous on the right to peace, civic space
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