Escenarios
Biweekly bulletin of strategic analysis addressed to the Venezuelan civil society
NUMBER 21 • OCTOBER 29TH, 2024
WHAT’S NEW?
The government of Nicolás Maduro is preparing to be sworn in next
January 10th, for an additional term of 6 years, despite not having
been favored by the popular vote on J-28.
On 10.14.24, it was announced that Nicolás Maduro had ratified
Vladimir Padrino López as Minister of Defense, Domingo Hernández
Lárez as Strategic Operational Commander of the National Bolivarian
Armed Forces (FANB) and Elio Estrada Paredes as General
Commander of the Bolivarian National Guard (GNB). Likewise, the
appointment of Johan Hernández Lárez as General Commander
of the Army; Ashraf Abdel Hadi Suleiman Gutiérrez as Chief of the
Navy and Lenín Ramírez as Commander of the Military Aviation was
also announced. On the other hand, the nominating committee for
the renewal of the Citizen Power published, on 10.15.24, the calls for
the selection of the Attorney General of the Republic, Comptroller
General and Ombudsman. According to this, the process would have
four phases: call, evaluation of credentials, challenges and list of
eligible candidates. On 10.27.24 the list of nominees was published,
highlighting that Tarek William Saab and Alfredo Ruiz had been
nominated for reelection to the positions of Attorney General and
Ombudsman. Finally, on 10.17.24 the National Assembly dismissed
CNE Rector Juan Carlos Delpino, replacing him with Conrado Perez.
With this change, the National Electoral Center (CNE), is formed
by Elvis Amoroso (president), Carlos Quintero (vice-president),
Rosalba Gil (main rector), Conrado Pérez (main rector) and Aimé
Nogal (main rector).
After being replaced by Alex Saab, in the direction of the Industry
and National Production portfolio, Pedro Tellechea published a
communiqué in which he stated that he had left his position due to
health reasons. However, days later, on 10.20.24, he was arrested
after being accused of “handing over the automated control and
command system of Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) to the
intelligence services of the United States”. The statement of the
Public Prosecutor’s Office assured that “his most immediate
collaborators” had also been arrested, without detailing the names
of those apprehended. It would seem that this arrest is part of the
internal rearrangements of the ruling party in view of 6 more years of
government.
THE POSSIBILITY OF RESOLVING THE CONFLICT THROUGH
POLITICAL MECHANISMS IS MAINTAINED?
Jorge Rodríguez commented on the communication that the
National Assembly had sent to Nicolás Maduro for his swearing in as
president-elect on January 10th. Maduro reacted by declaring “I will
formally attend the fulfillment of the constitutional oath”. Edmundo
Gonzalez ruled out the possibility of being sworn in exile. On the
other hand, Rodriguez himself announced that the electoral laws
would be reformed by December 15th. If the proposed reform to
the Organic Law of Electoral Processes increases the obstacles to
participation, the democratic alternative would have to decide on its
eventual participation in the next regional elections, in a context of
the greatest known restriction to the civic space.
In contrast, the Episcopal Conference issued a communiqué, after
its 45th Extraordinary Plenary Assembly, in which it ratified the
demand for the publication, in detail” of the results of the July 28th
elections, rejected the repression and requested the release of
political prisoners.
On 10.14.24 Enrique Marquez rejected the decision of the Constitutional Chamber of
the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ) to declare inadmissible the appeal for review of the
decision of the Electoral Chamber regarding the July 28th results. Marquez announced
new legal actions, as well as the promotion of an Amnesty Law. The TSJ also declared
inadmissible a similar appeal filed by Antonio Ecarri.
After the report of his disappearance, on 10.25.24 it was disclosed that the body of
Edwin Santos, activist of Voluntad Popular, had been found lifeless. According to a VP
communiqué, witnesses reported the arrest, while the government maintains that he died
due to a car accident.
On 10.17.24 Diosdado Cabello, Minister of Interior and Justice, announced that the
total number of foreigners detained in Venezuela reached 19 persons. The European
Union requested that “full and unimpeded” consular access be allowed to the detained
Europeans. In the period covered by this bulletin the new political prisoners are Eduardo
Labrador, Zulia regional deputy and Leidi Diana Angulo de Hernandez. As of 10.14.24 the
Penal Forum reported 1,936 political prisoners. In the cases of Roland Carreño, Freddy
Superlano and Ricardo Estevez, on 10.11.24, they were charged with the crimes of
Terrorism, Treason and Association to commit a crime.
The diplomatic steps taken by Brazil and Colombia have not produced additional news.
On 10.24.24 María Corina Machado expressed before a plenary session of the Colombian
Senate: “To President Petro: It is time for definitions. Silence is no longer an option in the
face of what is happening in Venezuela”. At the same time, at the summit of the BRICS
(Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, considered emerging economies), it was
known that Brazil vetoed Venezuela’s entry, due to the fact that the promise made by
Miraflores’ officials to Lula to publish the results of the elections was not fulfilled. The
Venezuelan government qualified the action as “aggression” and “hostile gesture”. The
Venezuelan prosecutor Saab requested that Da Silva “be investigated” for allegedly
lying about the accident that made it impossible for him to travel to the meeting. If with
this gesture Brazil is modifying its diplomatic action on Venezuela, it is too early to know
the results. One hypothesis is that Miraflores may try to recompose its relations with
its regional allies after the swearing in on January 10th, 2005. After the Brics Summit,
Russian President Vladimir Putin affirmed that Maduro had “cleanly won” the elections.
On 10.24.24 it was announced that María Corina Machado and Edmundo González
Urrutia had been awarded the Sakharov Prize 2024 for Freedom of Thought by the
European Parliament. 15 UN Special Rapporteurs published a joint communication of
allegations on human rights violations in Venezuela in the electoral context.
WHAT CAN CIVIL SOCIETY DO TO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE RE-DEMOCRATIZATION OF THE COUNTRY?
• Seek the unity of the opposition: It is essential for civil society to pressure opposition
political actors to overcome their differences and unite in a common front to confront the
Maduro regime. Their fragmentation only benefits the regime and weakens the chances of
a democratic transition
• Prepare for a new repressive spike: It is foreseeable that the Maduro regime will
intensify repression to silence dissident voices after his swearing-in. Civil society must
be prepared to rigorously document any human rights violations, including arbitrary
detentions, torture, forced disappearances and assassinations.
• Strengthen internal organization: In the face of an adverse scenario, it is essential that
civil society organizations strengthen their security mechanisms, internal communication
and protection of their members. Security protocols for protests, strategies for the
protection of sensitive information and contingency plans to respond to repression should
be implemented.
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