CLIMATE
CHANGE AND Karim M. Morsy,
Ph.D., P.E.
SUSTAINABILITY
Lecture outline
Climate change mitigation and adaptation
Climate change mitigation – definition
Climate change mitigation scenarios
Mitigation in different sectors
Climate change mitigation and adaptation
• Mitigation refers to “measures
to reduce the amount and speed
of future climate change by
reducing emissions of heat-
trapping gases or removing
carbon dioxide from the
atmosphere.”
• Adaptation refers to measures
taken to reduce the harmful
impacts of climate change or take
advantage of any beneficial
opportunities through
“adjustments in natural or human
systems.”
Climate change mitigation – definition
• Climate Change Mitigation refers to efforts
to reduce or prevent emission of
greenhouse gases. Mitigation can mean
using new technologies and renewable
energies, making older equipment more
energy efficient, or changing management
practices or consumer behavior.
• It can be as complex as a plan for a new
city, or as a simple as improvements to a
cook stove design. Efforts underway
around the world range from high-tech
subway systems to bicycling paths and
walkways.
Climate change mitigation
• Typically, mitigation assessments include the
development of one or more long-term
mitigation scenarios.
• A mitigation scenario is a quantified projection
of how future GHG emissions can be reduced
relative to one or more baseline scenarios.
• A baseline scenario characterizes the likely
evolution of GHG emissions in the absence of
new, specific policies to reduce GHG emissions.
A mitigation assessment, therefore, involves
creating both baseline and mitigation scenarios.
Climate change mitigation scenarios
• Mitigation scenarios reflect a future in which explicit policies and measures
are adopted to reduce the sources (or enhance the sinks) of GHGs, and are
used to compare and evaluate GHG mitigation policies and measures against
the counterfactual situation described in the baseline scenario.
• GHG mitigation scenarios should take into account the common but
differentiated responsibilities of the Parties and their specific national and
regional development priorities, objectives and circumstances. They should
not simply reflect current plans, but should instead assess what would be
hypothetically achievable based on the goals of the scenario.
Basis of mitigation scenarios
A mitigation scenario might reflect only the technical potential for reducing
GHG emissions or storing carbon, or it may incorporate estimates of what
would be achievable after consideration of the other factors.
Mitigation scenarios can be constructed in a number of ways. For example they
may be based upon:
• An emission reduction target which, in turn, may be specified relative to the
baseline, relative to emissions in a given historical year, or relative to an
indicator such as emissions per capita or emissions per unit of GDP;
• The inclusion of all options up to a certain cost per unit of emissions reduction
(equivalent to a carbon tax);
• The inclusion of only “no regrets” options
(i.e. options that have no positive cost per unit of emissions reduction);
• Specific options or technologies, based on perceived technical or political
feasibility.
Mitigation in different sectors
1- Energy Supply
The energy supply sector is responsible for almost a quarter of total GHG
emissions. It includes industries involved in the extraction of primary energy, those
that transform energy supplies from primary fuels into secondary fuels, and those
that are involved in transporting energy. It includes modern sectors, such as
electric generation, oil refining, ethanol production, coal mining, and oil
production, as well as traditional sectors such as charcoal production.
MITIGATION MEASURES
Mitigation measures in the energy supply sector include: increasing plant
efficiency; switching to lower-carbon fuels; reducing losses in the transmission and
distribution of electricity and fuels; and increasing the use of renewable energy
forms, such as solar, hydropower, ocean, wind, biomass, and geothermal energy.
2- Transportation
In 2004, transport was responsible for 13 per cent of total GHG emissions;
petroleum currently supplies 95 per cent of total energy needs in that sector.
Road transport accounts for 74 per cent of transport energy use and light-duty
vehicles alone comprise about 50 per cent of all road transport. Air travel is the
second largest and most rapidly growing mode of transport and is responsible
for about 12 per cent of current energy use in the transport sector.
2- Transportation
Emissions from road transport are a result of many factors, such as:
Activity: the quantity of transport duties undertaken;
Structure: the split between different modal shares
(road, rail, air, water);
Intensity: the efficiency with which energy is used to complete travel duties;
Fuel: the types of fuel used to power transport.
•The growth of energy use in the transport sector, its continued reliance on
petroleum and the consequent increase in carbon emissions are determined by
long-term trends of the increasing motorization of world transport systems and
an ever-growing demand for mobility.
•GHG emissions in the transport sector are growing more rapidly than in any
other. Moreover, emissions from transport in developing countries are
increasing faster than in other regions of the world.
2- Transportation
MITIGATION MEASURES
Mitigation measures in the transport sector include fuel- efficiency
improvements, such as changes in vehicle and engine design (e.g.
hybrids), and alternative low-carbon fuel sources such as biofuels
and compressed natural gas (CNG).
A comprehensive mitigation strategy in this sector may also include
the expansion of public transport infrastructure. Public transport
technologies such as buses and trains can generally operate with
much lower emissions per passenger per km than cars or airplanes.
Improved land-use planning (dense settlements instead of urban
sprawl) is also an important mitigation option in the longer term.
3- Buildings
In 2004, CO2 emissions from the building sector
were around 8.6 Gt CO2, accounting for about 8 per
cent of total GHG emissions.
MITIGATION MEASURES
There are many cost-effective technologies and
measures that have the potential to significantly
reduce the increase in GHG emissions from buildings.
Examples include: energy-efficient heating and
cooling systems, lighting, air conditioners, appliances
and motors; improving building thermal integrity
though insulation and air sealing; using solar energy
in active and passive heating and cooling; and
effectively using natural light (“daylighting”).
4- Industry
• Energy-related CO2 emissions from the industrial sector grew from 6.0 Gt
CO2 in 1971 to 9.9 Gt CO2 in 2004. Industry is responsible for almost 20 per
cent of total GHG emissions. Since 1980, industrial energy demand has
stagnated in industrialized countries, but continues to grow rapidly in many
developing countries, especially in Asia.
• Although there is significant potential for improving energy efficiency in all
industries, the greatest opportunities for savings are in the energy-intensive
industries. Five of these – iron and steel, chemicals, petroleum refining, pulp
and paper, and cement – account for roughly 45 per cent of global industrial
energy consumption.
• Energy purchases represent such a large fraction of production costs in these
industries that new technologies for producing basic materials have been
more energy-efficient than the technologies they replaced, a trend that is
likely to continue.
4- Industry
Mitigation measures in the industrial sector
include process changes to directly reduce
CO2 emissions, material-efficient product
design, material substitution, and product
and material recycling.
In light industries, mitigation options to
reduce GHG emissions include efficient
lighting, efficient motors and drive systems,
process controls, and saving energy in space
heating.
5- Agriculture
Agricultural areas (e.g. cropland, managed grassland
and permanent crops including agro-forestry and
bio-energy crops) occupy about 40 – 50 per cent of
the earth’s land surface. In 2005, agriculture
accounted for an estimated 10 – 12 per cent of the
total global anthropogenic GHG emissions.
MITIGATION MEASURES
Mitigation measures in the agricultural sector include
improving rice cultivation and animal husbandry to
minimize CH4 emissions, decreasing the use of
artificial fertilizer to minimize N2O emissions and
improving cultivation methods, such as the no-till
approach, to increase carbon storage in soil.
6- Waste
Post-consumer waste accounts for less than 5 per cent of global GHG
emissions, with a total of approximately 1.3 Gt CO2 eq in 2005. Waste and
waste management affect the release of GHGs through:
• Methane emissions during the anaerobic decomposition of the organic
content of solid waste and wastewater;
• Reducing fossil fuel use by utilizing energy recovery from waste combustion;
• Reducing energy consumption and process gas releases in extractive and
manufacturing industries, as a result of recycling;
• Carbon sequestration in forests, caused by a decrease in demand for virgin
paper;
• Energy use in the transport of waste for disposal or recycling; except for the
long-range transport of glass for reuse or recycling, transport emissions of
secondary materials are often one or two orders of magnitude smaller than the
other four factors (Ackerman, 2000).
6- Waste
MITIGATION MEASURES
Mitigation measures in the waste sector
include source reduction through waste
prevention, recycling, composting,
waste-to-energy incineration and CH4,
capture from landfills and wastewater.
Thank you
