L&T

Our buying price 3540 - Current price 3483

5% of portfolio

What was to rationale to buy at 40 PE?????

IIFL
Our buying price 483 , Current price - 408
The Reserve Bank of India has lifted restrictions on IIFL Finance's gold loan business, allowing the
company to resume operations. The ban was initially imposed due to supervisory concerns, including
deviations in gold purity assessment and breaches in loan-to-value ratio.Sep 19, 2567 BE

AARTI IND
Aarti Ind buying price: 659; current price - 425

Aarti Industries Q2 Results

Revenue/EBITDA: ₹197 crores, down from ₹233 crores YoY (~15.47% decline YoY).

Profit: 52Cr, down 42%

EBITDA Margin: 12.10%, down from 16.02% YoY.

Aarti Pharmalabs buyihg price 388 ; current price -639 (in my other pms which is doing much better)

Aarti Ind buying price: 659; current price - 425

IDFC FB
Abakkus buying price 76; Current price 62

They have at least 750Cr exposure:

400Cr exposure in Adani Ports via IDFC Limited (looks like one more legacy item).

250Cr exposure in Adani Enterprises directly via IDFCFB (not legacy).

Found these on free versions of Crisil and Care ratings websites. There may be more hidden/indirect
exposures - I’ve not done extensive searches.

On top of these, there is about 345Cr exposure in Fusion Finance…

(The merger of IDFC Ltd and IDFC First Bank became effective on October 1, 2024:

Share exchange ratio

IDFC shareholders received 155 fully paid-up equity shares of IDFC First Bank for every 100 shares held in
IDFC Ltd.) IDFC was 10% cheaper at the time of buying and the merger was already announced. Why
IDFC ltd was not bought?)

VV (management is excelement), made immense profits in my personal profolio, my buying price was 35.
Sold at 80.

JINDAL STAINLESS
Our buying price 746; Current price -655

Guidance and Outlook:

20% volume growth for FY25

EBITDA per ton guidance of INR 18,000-20,000

Net debt to EBITDA ratio to remain below 1.5x

Capital Allocation Strategy:

JSL’s capital allocation focuses on growth investments, dividends, and maintaining a strong balance
sheet. The company has taken an enabling resolution to raise up to INR 5,000 crores through equity-like
instruments for future organic and inorganic growth opportunities.

Opportunities:

Expansion into new export markets

Growth in domestic infrastructure and new-age industries

Potential for further value-added product development

Risks:

Volatile raw material prices, especially nickel

Geopolitical tensions affecting global trade

Potential economic slowdowns impacting demand

Our buying price 746; Current price -655

ADITYA BIRLA Capital
Our Buying price: 223 ; Current price - 183 (3.9% of PF)

Supposed to be a growth stock, cause of concern is their exposure to Vodafone

Idea.

JINDAL STEEL & POWER

Our buying price : 1056 ; Current price: 871

(Using NotebookLM from Motilal & Centrum research reports)

Justification for the Valuation of JSPL

Both Centrum Broking and Motilal Oswal assign a "BUY" rating to JSPL, indicating optimism about the
company's future prospects and potential for stock price appreciation.

Here's a breakdown of the valuation justifications:

Centrum Broking

Valuation Methodology: Centrum values JSPL at 6.5x its estimated EV/EBITDA for the first half of FY27,
arriving at a target price of Rs1,126. This target price represents an 18% upside from the current price of
Rs952.

Rationale: The valuation multiple of 6.5x EV/EBITDA is chosen based on several factors, including:

Expected Growth: Centrum projects robust growth for JSPL, estimating a compound annual growth rate
(CAGR) of 17% for revenue, 25% for EBITDA, and 38% for profit after tax (PAT) between FY24 and FY27.
This growth is anticipated to be driven by:

■
Expanding steel sales volume, estimated to grow at an 18% CAGR from FY24 to FY27.

Improved margins due to timely completion of capital expenditure projects, faster capacity ramp-up, and
cost savings from captive coal mines, slurry pipelines, and pellet plants.

Industry Outlook: Centrum acknowledges a positive outlook for the steel industry in H2FY25, with
expectations of stabilizing steel prices and lower coking coal costs.

Company-Specific Strengths: Centrum highlights JSPL's strengths, including its ongoing capacity
expansion, expected self-sufficiency in thermal coal, and the anticipated commissioning of the slurry
pipeline project. These factors are expected to enhance JSPL's profitability and market position.

Motilal Oswal

Valuation Methodology: Motilal Oswal sets a target price of INR1200 for JSPL, based on 6.5x EV/EBITDA
on the September 2026 estimate. This target price implies a 26% upside potential from the current
market price.

Rationale: Similar to Centrum, Motilal Oswal's positive outlook for JSPL stems from:

Anticipated Improvement in 2HFY25: Motilal Oswal expects JSPL's earnings to rebound in the second half
of FY25, driven by rising steel prices and healthy demand, particularly after the festive season. This
optimism is supported by the price hike implemented by JSPL in Q3FY25.

Long-Term Growth: Motilal Oswal believes that the ongoing capacity expansion will contribute to higher
profitability and margins in the long term as JSPL produces more value-added products. They project
strong growth in revenue and EBITDA, with a 24% and 26% YoY increase expected in 2HFY25,
respectively.

Cost Efficiency: Motilal Oswal acknowledges the company's efforts to reduce costs through increased
self-sufficiency in coal and the development of infrastructure like the slurry pipeline.
Key Considerations

Peer Comparison: Both research reports provide a peer comparison that shows JSPL trading at relatively
attractive valuation multiples compared to its peers. This suggests that JSPL might be undervalued
relative to the industry.

Historical Valuation: The sources also include historical charts of JSPL's EV/EBITDA and P/B ratios. While
these charts are informative, it's important to note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of
future results.

Opportunities for JSPL

●

Favorable Industry Outlook: Analysts expect a positive outlook for the steel industry in the second half of
FY25, with stabilizing steel prices and lower coking coal costs. JSPL, in particular, is expected to benefit
from these trends and report higher profitability in Q3FY25 due to rising long steel prices, stable flat
steel prices, and reduced coking coal costs.

Capacity Expansion: JSPL is undergoing a significant capacity expansion, with plans to increase its
finished steel capacity from 7.25mt to 13.75mt by FY26. This expansion will enable JSPL to produce more
value-added products and potentially achieve better profitability and margins in the long term.

Increased Self-Sufficiency in Coal: JSPL is expected to achieve self-sufficiency in thermal coal

requirements through the commissioning of new and expanded coal mines. The company plans to
commission the Utkal B1 coal mine by the end of Q3FY25 and expects to receive approvals for capacity
expansion at the Utkal C and Gare Palma IV coal mines soon. This will reduce dependence on external
sources and potentially lead to significant cost savings.

Slurry Pipeline Project: The 18mt slurry pipeline project, which is 80% complete, is expected to be
commissioned by the end of FY25. This project will streamline transportation and further reduce costs,
contributing to increased profitability.

●
Improving Demand: The Indian government's focus on infrastructure development, as evidenced by the
Rs 11 lakh crore infrastructure boost (3.4% of GDP) announced in the budget, is expected to significantly
benefit the steel sector. This will create increased demand for steel, offering growth opportunities for
JSPL.

Price Hikes: JSPL implemented a price hike of INR1,000-2,000/t across products in Q3FY25. The
management believes that these prices are holding up due to healthy demand following the festive
season, indicating a positive pricing environment for the company.

Risks for JSPL

●

Volatility in Steel Prices: While steel prices are expected to stabilize, the industry remains inherently
susceptible to price fluctuations influenced by global economic conditions, supply and demand
dynamics, and competition. Any significant downturn in steel prices could negatively impact JSPL's
revenue and profitability.

Raw Material Price Fluctuations: Though coking coal prices are projected to decrease, the prices of other
raw materials like iron ore remain volatile. Management expects iron ore costs to moderate, but if they
remain high, it could squeeze profit margins.

Execution Risks Associated with Capacity Expansion: Large-scale capacity expansions, like the one
undertaken by JSPL, carry inherent execution risks. Delays in project completion or cost overruns could
strain the company's finances and hinder its growth trajectory.

Dependence on Domestic Demand: JSPL is heavily reliant on the Indian market for its sales. Any
slowdown in the Indian economy or infrastructure spending could negatively impact demand for steel
and hinder JSPL's growth prospects.

Competition: The steel industry is highly competitive, with both domestic and international players vying
for market share. JSPL faces competition from established players like Tata Steel and JSW Steel, and this
competition could put pressure on the company's pricing and market share.

Debt Levels: While JSPL's management aims to maintain a Net Debt/EBITDA ratio below 1.5x, the
company's net debt increased in Q2FY25 due to expansion capex at the Angul project. High debt levels
can increase financial risk and limit the company's flexibility.

(Basically a Cyclical stock, you need to understand the cycles and then should get into it, also should
know how much can be upside in the cycle, i dont study or understand cyclicals)

Our buying price : 1056 ; Current price: 871