Jindal Stainless: CMP: INR702
Jindal Stainless: CMP: INR702
Jindal Stainless
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
81,796 24,947 CMP: INR702 TP:INR810 (+15%) Buy
Expansion underway to cater to robust demand
We initiated coverage on Jindal Stainless (JSL) on 13th May’25 at a price of INR610
Stock Info for a target price of INR770. The stock has gained 20% after our report in one month
Bloomberg JDSL IN and we believe there is further steam left. The company’s expansion projects and
Equity Shares (m) 824 cost-saving initiatives would ensure stable earnings growth ahead. We retain our
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 578.2 / 6.7 positive stance on the stock with a TP of INR810.
52-Week Range (INR) 848 / 497
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 6/-8/-20 Strategic expansions to propel growth:
12M Avg Val (INR M) 667
Free float (%) 39.1
JSL is investing INR57b to expand its upstream capacity, enhance
downstream operations and diversify its product mix via 1.2mtpa steel metal
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E MARCH 2025 2026E 2027E shop (SMS) JV in Indonesia, which will increase its total capacity by 40% to
Sales 393.1 444.6 510.1 4.2mtpa by FY27E.
EBITDA 46.7 53.4 63.5 JSL is expanding its downstream operation in Jajpur and has acquired JUSL
Adj. PAT 25.1 29.8 36.6
EBITDA (%) 11.9 12.0 12.5
(hot 3.2mtpa and cold 0.2mtpa rolling capacity) to cater to 1.2mtpa
Adj. EPS (INR) 30.5 36.2 44.5 incremental upstream capacity in Indonesia JV.
BV/Sh. (INR) 203 235 276 For product diversification, JSL has acquired Rathi Super Steel (RSSL) and
Ratios
Rabirun Vinimay (RVPL) to cater to infra demand. It has also acquired
Net D:E 0.2 0.2 0.1
RoE (%) 15.1 15.4 16.1 Chromeni Steels (0.6mtpa with plan to expand till 4mtpa) to increase CR
RoCE (%) 12.3 12.7 13.2 share to 75% (vs. 45% currently).
Payout (%) 9.9 9.7 9.0
Valuations
Focus on cost savings via backward integration:
P/E (x) 18.5 19.3 15.7
P/BV (x) 2.8 3.0 2.5 Nickel accounts for ~50% of its input costs, making it a critical raw material
EV/EBITDA(x) 10.7 11.5 9.6 for stainless steel (SS) production. India lacks domestic reserves and mainly
Div. Yield (%) 0.5 0.5 0.6 relies on imports (ferronickel/SS scrap).
Shareholding pattern (%) JSL has entered into a JV with New Yaking Pte Ltd for a nickel pig iron (NPI)
As On Mar-25 Dec-24 Mar-24
Promoter 60.9 60.7 60.5
smelter in Indonesia (49% stake) to secure long-term supply. This will ensure
DII 6.9 6.3 6.6 annual supply of 0.2mt NPI with 14% nickel content and reduce its exposure
FII 21.4 22.2 20.8 to nickel price fluctuations.
Others 10.8 10.8 12.1
FII Includes depository receipts
Volume growth with enhanced margins to drive earnings
Stock Performance (1-year) The merger with promoter holding company, strategic JVs, and acquisition of
Jindal Stain. key assets have resulted in increased capacity, enhanced backward
Nifty - Rebased integration, and downstream product diversification/value addition.
1,050
We believe these measures will help JSL deliver a 10% CAGR in volumes and
900
4% CAGR in NSR over FY25-27, driving a similar 14% CAGR in revenue. With a
750 better cost structure and higher share of value-added products (VAP), we
600 anticipate EBITDA/t of INR20,500 to INR22,000 over FY26-27E.
450 With stable capex intensity and healthy OCF of INR62b during FY26-27E, we
Jun-24
Jun-25
Sep-24
Dec-24
Mar-25
believe JSL’s net debt will remain at a comfortable level and JSL would
comfortably fund the ongoing capex.
Exhibit 1: : P/B ratio trades near +1SD Exhibit 2: Even EV/EBITDA slipped close to +1SD
P/B (x) Avg (x) Max (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Avg (x) Max (x)
Min (x) +1SD -1SD Min (x) +1SD -1SD
4.8 16.0 14.8
3.9
3.6 11.3
2.7 12.0 9.6
2.4
2.4 8.0
6.1
1.4
1.2 4.0 2.6
0.3 0.4
0.0 0.0 1.4
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
May-20
May-21
May-22
Jun-23
Jun-24
Jun-25
Mar-16
Jun-15
Jun-20
Jun-25
Mar-19
Sep-16
Dec-17
Sep-21
Dec-22
Mar-24
Source: MOFSL Source: MOFSL
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Jindal Stainless
Investment Rationale
The investment (~INR57b) will increase the consol. installed capacity by 40% to
~4.2mtpa by FY27 from ~3mtpa currently. With the completion of ongoing capex,
JSL is set to become one of the top five SS manufacturers globally.
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Jindal Stainless
Exhibit 4: In FY25, JSL spent INR25b out of the INR57b announced capex
25 16 16
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Jindal Stainless
Raw materials (incl. coal for CPP) account for ~75% of the total SS production
cost, in which nickel holds 40-45% of share. This makes the industry highly
vulnerable to fluctuations in nickel prices, which can influence operating
margins. India faces a nickel deficit, and given the limited availability of SS scrap
domestically, it makes India heavily reliant on imports (i.e. ferronickel, SS scrap).
Historically, JSL used to source its key input material through a combination of
domestic and import purchases, where imports used to account for +60%. To
overcome this over-reliance on imports, JSL initiated several strategic sourcing
measures.
JSL has entered into a JV with New Yaking Pte Ltd to set up and operate an NPI
smelter facility (holds 49% stake) located in Halmahera, Indonesia. The facility
became operational in Aug’24. This should ensure the supply of ~0.2mt of NPI
annually with an average nickel content of 14%, supporting domestic
operations.
This strategic move will secure overseas nickel reserves for JSL, ensuring long-
term supply while mitigating market volatility caused by nickel price
movements. Once fully ramped up, the project is expected to generate ~INR2-
3b of operating profit, with a projected payback period of ~5-6 years.
Exhibit 5: SS prices linked to nickel trends as it is a key RM Exhibit 6: NSR influenced by fluctuations in nickel prices
SS 304-CRC, Mumbai, (INR/t) LME Nickel (USD/t)
Net Realization (INR/t) LME Nickel (USD/t)
3,40,000 34,000
2,40,000 34,000
2,80,000 28,000
2,10,000 28,000
2,20,000 22,000
1,80,000 22,000
1,60,000 16,000 1,50,000 16,000
1,00,000 10,000 1,20,000 10,000
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
3QFY24
4QFY24
1QFY25
2QFY25
3QFY25
4QFY25
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
3QFY24
4QFY24
1QFY25
2QFY25
3QFY25
4QFY25
Exhibit 7: Input material share by volume – KT (FY25) Exhibit 8: Input material share by value – INR m (FY25)
3%
Nickel Nickel
23%
23%
Ferro Chrome Ferro Chrome
42%
Ferro Manganese 4% Ferro Manganese
6% 4%
67% 1% Copper Copper
Steel Scrap 27% Steel Scrap
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Jindal Stainless
JSL has streamlined its corporate structure in the past few years through the
merger of its promoter holding company (i.e. Jindal Stainless - Hisar) and the
acquisition of strategic assets. This strategic move has led to a significant
increase in installed capacity, enhanced backward integration, and greater
product diversification across a wide range of downstream VAPs. The merged
entity has emerged as a one-stop SS shop and the largest SS player in India,
which has further strengthened the company’s global positioning, making it one
of the largest SS manufacturers.
FY24
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY25
FY26E
FY27E
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 10: JSL holds ~40% share of India’s total SS capacity Exhibit 11: With the ramp-up of newly added capacity, JSL is
(~7mtpa) expected to report strong volume growth
Jindal stainless
0.6
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.8
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.9
11% Mukand Ltd
16%
FY22
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY23
FY24
FY25
FY26E
FY27E
Others
After the merger of JHSL with JSL in FY22, the company saw a 6% CAGR in
revenue (INR393b in FY25), primarily driven by a 12% volume CAGR (2.4mt in
FY25), which was partially offset by 5% negative CAGR in NSR over FY22-25. We
expect JSL to post double-digit volume growth in the coming year, driven by its
strategic expansion of upstream and downstream capacities to strengthen its
supply chain and market presence. We expect ~10% volume CAGR, led by the
ramp-up of new facilities, which would translate into 14% revenue CAGR over
FY25-27.
JSL has formed two JVs in Indonesia to establish an NPI facility and a 1.2mtpa
SMS plant. This move ensures a steady supply of nickel, reducing dependency on
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Jindal Stainless
Exhibit 12: Higher VAP and operational efficiencies to expand JSL margins
EBITDA (INR b) EBITDA (INR/t)
22,063
21,633
20,585
20,325
19,666
18,174
17,207
30,471
10,730
14,083
13,661
12,441
5.7 11.7 13.4 14.2 50.9 35.9 47.0 46.7 53.4 63.5
11.6 11.4
FY23
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY24
FY25
FY26E
FY27E
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 13: Capex intensity to remain steady in FY26-27 as Exhibit 14: With rising EBITDA and no major capex, net
large capex already incurred in FY25 debt/EBITDA to remain muted
CFO (INR b) CAPEX (INR b) FCF (INR b) Net Debt/ EBITDA Average
7.0
5.0
5.0
3.7 3.7 3.4 3.4
47 22 28 8 34 14 3.0
2.1
-25 -20 -20 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6
1.0
-1.0
FY27E
FY25
FY26E
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
FY26E
FY27E
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Jindal Stainless
Exhibit 16: : P/B ratio trades near +1SD Exhibit 17: Even EV/EBITDA slipped close to +1SD
P/B (x) Avg (x) Max (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Avg (x) Max (x)
Min (x) +1SD -1SD Min (x) +1SD -1SD
4.8
16.0 14.8
3.9
3.6 11.3
2.7 12.0 9.6
2.4
2.4 8.0
1.4 6.1
1.2 4.0 2.6
0.3 0.4
0.0 0.0 1.4
Jun-23
Jun-24
Jun-25
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
May-20
May-21
May-22
Mar-16
Jun-15
Jun-20
Jun-25
Mar-19
Sep-16
Dec-17
Sep-21
Dec-22
Mar-24
Source: MOFSL Source: MOFSL
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Jindal Stainless
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Jindal Stainless
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
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Jindal Stainless
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Jindal Stainless
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