Demographic Indicators:

UNIT 1 DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS: Transition and Challenges

TRANSITION AND CHALLENGES

Structure
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Demography: Meaning and Components
1.3 Demographic Measures
1.4 Fertility: Meaning and Measures
1.5 Mortality and Its Measures
1.6 Age and Sex Structure
1.7 Demographic Challenges
1.8 Let Us Sum Up
1.9 References and Selected Readings
1.10 Check Your Progress-Possible Answers

1.1 INTRODUCTION
Health care in India consists of a universal health care system. Although it has
grown enormously during the last six decades, even now, the vast majority of the
country suffers from a poor standard of healthcare infrastructure which has not
kept up with the growing economy. Despite having centres of excellence in
healthcare delivery, these facilities are limited and are inadequate in meeting the
current healthcare demands. Why it is so? One of the most critical factors that
affect the health care is the demographic situation which reflects various
characteristics of population and is a significant aspect of human development.
The demographic situation in India has been in a constant state of transition and
it is this transition that decides not only the quality of population, but its
contribution to various aspects of development including the health care, too.
Wherever the transition is towards a positive direction, the contribution to
development is smooth, otherwise it confronts challenges. The state of the
demographic situation is measured through significant demographic indicators,
such as fertility rates, mortality rates, and migration. This unit discusses the
transition in demographic indicators, and the challenges that are to be responded
adequately and appropriately. To understand these in a better way, the unit will
also explain the meaning of demography and related issues and concerns.

After reading this unit, you should be able to:

ƒ explain the meaning of demography and various demographic measures
ƒ calculate various measures of fertility and mortality
ƒ narrate the challenges of demographic transition

1.2 DEMOGRAPHY: MEANING AND

COMPONENTS
Demography is a broad social science discipline. The word ‘demography’ comes
from the Greek word ‘demos’, which means population and ‘graphy’, which 5
Population and Health Care means to describe or draw. In its most simplistic terms, demography is the study
of how human population changes. Various data is collected and then analyzed
to see how populations have changed over a period of time, and to predict how
they will act in the future. These changes occur due to births, deaths, immigration,
emigration, and natural ageing. More specifically, however, demographers deal
with the collection, presentation and analysis of data relating to the basic life-
cycle events and the experiences of people: birth, marriage, divorce, household
and family formation, employment, ageing, migration, and death. The discipline
emphasizes empirical investigation of population processes, including the
conceptualization and measurement of these processes, and the study of their
determinants and consequences.
Demography also involves dealing with the study of social and economic change,
and how changes in demography affect the environment. Concepts such as life
tables, population momentum and stable populations, have allowed society to
better understand social change. As an offshoot, demography has encouraged
vast amounts of literature on topics such as: health and morbidity, family systems,
women’s roles in society, and the cultural context of changes in demography. To
be precise, demography is the study of the growth, change, and structure of the
human population. Changes in a population’s size and structure are caused by
changes in the birth rate, the death rate, and the net migration rates.

1.3 DEMOGRAPHIC MEASURES

Let us first understand the demographic measures. The three popular measures
used in demographic indicators are:
i) Ratio
ii) Proportion
iii) Rate
i) Ratio: is simply, any number divided by any other number multiplied by
another number. For example the sex ratio is the number of females per
thousand males. That is

Female
Sex Ratio = ———— × 100
Male
For example, out of the total population of 2000 in Kartarpur Village, there
are 1100 males and 900 females then the sex ratio is:

900
Sex Ratio = ———— × 100 = 818.18
1100
ii) Proportion: A proportion is a ratio in which the number of the numerator is
included in the denominator. The formula used for the calculation of
proportion is as follows:

x
Proportion = ———
x+y

6
 If someone has to calculate the proportion of female population in the Demographic Indicators:
Transition and Challenges
Kartarpur Village to the male population then it is:

900
Proportion = ————— = 0.45
1100 + 900
Note that a proportion could vary between 0.00 to 1.0. The proportion is
converted into a percentage by multiplying by 100.

iii) Rate: The term ‘rate’ is the most frequently and loosely used term in
demography. In ‘rate’, the numerator is the number of events, such as births
or deaths, occurring during a period of time; and the denominator is the
number of population during the period under consideration. In this context,
it is important sometimes to specify the period.

For example, if the total population of a village is 2500 and 25 births have
occurred in a particular year say in 2007, then the birth rate is:

25
Birth Rate = ——— × 1000 = 10
2500
It is pertinent to mention here that rates are commonly used in demography,
but in actual terms they are ratios or proportions. For example the Literacy
Rate is the proportion of the population that is literate.

In this section, you studied demography, its meaning, components, and demographic
measures. Now, answer the questions given in Check Your Progress 1.
Check Your Progress 1
Note: a) Write your answer in about 50 words.
b) Check your answer with possible answers given at the end of the unit
1) What do you mean by demography?
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
2) Define Proportion.
.......................................................................................................................
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7
Population and Health Care
1.4 FERTILITY: MEANING AND MEASURES
Fertility is one of the major components of demographic situation and is connected
with human child bearing or reproduction. Sometimes, the term ‘natality’ is used
in place of fertility. Commonly, the term refers to occurrences of births, or, more
particularly, live births. In order to understand the implications of fertility, let us
understand indicators like Growth Rate, Crude Birth Rate, General Fertility Rate,
Age Specific Fertility Rate, Total Fertility Rate, Gross Reproduction Rate, and
Net Reproduction Rate.

1.4.1 Growth Rate

The growth rate indicates the pace of the growth of population. The rapid growth
of population in developing countries, as compared with developed countries, is
causing problems that are not only quantitative but qualitative, too. The
implications of population growth on the quality of life of the people are of
critical importance. The future growth of population in developing countries
will have further repercussion on their education, health, employment, housing,
and other aspects of life. Even the negative population growth as experienced in
certain European countries has an adverse impact on the process of development
and the quality of life of the people in those countries. The demographic situation,
whether it is population growth or its decline, is determined by births, deaths,
and migration. It is with this understanding that the calculation of population
growth is done so that the country can take appropriate measures for controlling
the population growth.

Before calculating the growth rate, it is essential to know the fundamental

demographic relationships that are represented by the following symbols:
Pt+1 = Pt + B – D + IN (M) – OUT (M)
Pt = Population of an area at a particular time or period
Pt+1 = Population at a time t plus the number of births between t and t+1
B = The number of births
D = The number of deaths
IN (M) = The number of in migrants leaving in the area.
OUT (M) = The number of people out migrants in the area.
The ‘natural increase’ is the difference between numbers of births and deaths.
Natural Increase = B – D
‘Net Migration’ is the difference between the numbers of migrants in and out.
Net Migration = IN (M) – OUT (M)

Thus, the population change is the summation of ‘natural increase’ and ‘net
migration’.

Population Change = Natural Increase + Net Migration

The rate of population change is derived by dividing each element by the mid-
year population (MYP).
8
 Pt + 1 – Pt Demographic Indicators:
The Rate of Population Change = ————— Transition and Challenges
MYP
B D IN (M) OUT (M)
= —— — ––––– + –––––– – –––––––
MYP MPY MYP MYP

Thus, the difference between the Birth Rate and Death Rate is the Rate of Natural
Increase and the difference between the IN-Migration and OUT-Migration is
Net Migration Rate. So the Growth Rate can be written as: Growth Rate = Rate
of Natural Increase+ Net Migration Rate.

The growth rate calculated as above indicates the demographic situation of the
c o n c e r n e d
geographical unit: Table 1.1: Population Growth Rate by Regions (%)
district, state, country, Region 1950-80 1980-90 1990-2001
region and the world. East Asia & Pacific 2.0 1.6 1.2
The growth rates
Europe & Central Asia 1.3 0.9 0.1
during 1950-2001,
shown in the following Latin America and Caribbean 2.6 2.0 1.6
Table 1.1, describe the Middle East and North Africa 2.6 3.0 2.1
trends in the South Asia 2.2 2.2 1.8
demographic situation
Sub-Saharan Africa 2.6 2.9 2.5
of different regions of
the world. As you see, High Income Region 1.1 0.7 0.8
though growth has World 1.9 1.7 1.4
been gradually Source: World Development Indicators, 2006
declining in almost all
regions since 1950, there are some fluctuations. The highest growth rate has
been in the region of Sub-Saharan Africa, going up during the period 1980-90,
but declining during 1990-2001. Again, this trend has been visible in regions of
the Middle East and North Africa. The lowest growth rate has been in Europe
and Central Asia.

Table-1.2: Indian Population and Growth Rate (1951-2001)

Year Total Population Growth Rate

1951 36.10 -

1961 43.92 1.96

1971 54.82 2.20

1981 68.63 2.22

1991 84.34 2.14

2001 102.70 1.93

Source: Census Report, 2001

9
Population and Health Care Table 1.3: Population Growth in Major States (1991-01)
States Population 2001 (in Lakh) Growth Rate
Bihar 82.88 2.50
Gujarat 50.60 2.03
Jharkhand 26.91 2.09
Madhya Pradesh 60.38 2.18
Maharashtra 96.75 2.04
Rajasthan 56.47 2.49
Uttar Pradesh 166.05 2.30
Source: Census Report, 2001
The growth rate in India, as given in Table -1.2, reveals the variations during the
period 1951-2001. There was rapid population growth during the period 1961-
81. The Census 1991 for the first time displayed some decline, but speedy decline
took place during 1991-2001. According to the Census 2001, the growth rate
came down to 1.96. However, this is the situation at the national level. The
growth rates in almost 20 out of 35 States and Union Territories are higher than
the national average.

As shown in Table-1.3, the population in the major states has been growing at a
much faster rate than in some of the south Indian States, like Kerala, Tamil Nadu,
Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka.

1.4.1 Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

The Crude Birth Rate is the number of live births occurring among the population
of a given geographical area during a given year, per 1,000 mid-year total
population of the given geographical area during the same year. The reason it is
a ‘crude’ rate is because it includes all ages and both sexes in the denominator
.The equation of CBR is given below.
Birth in a year
CBR = —————————— × 1000
Population at mid – year
For example, if the mid-year population of an area is 70,000 and the number of
live births are 900, then:
900
CBR = ——— × 1000 = 12.85
70000
The Crude Birth Rate (CBR) is a decisive indicator of the demographic situation
of any geographical area. The CBR in India during the period 1950-2001, as
shown in Table-1.4, indicates the state of population growth in the country. The
gradual decline in CBR since 1960-61 has been related to the decline in population
growth. Various population control measures, particularly, the provision of family
planning services, has helped India to control its birth rate. Kerala has the lowest
birth rate in the country. However, the birth rate in states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh,
Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan continues to remain high compared with other
states.
10
 Table-1.4: CBR in India (1951-01) Demographic Indicators:
Transition and Challenges
Year CBR

1950-51 39.9

1960-61 41.7

1970-71 41.2

1980-81 37.2

1990-91 32.5

2000-01 25.8

Source: K. Srinivasan, 2004

1.4.2 General Fertility Rate

This is the ratio of the total number of live births (B) during a calendar year in a
given geographical area to the total number of women (mid-year population) of
child bearing ages (15-49 years) in that area. The equation of GFR is given below.

Birth during year

GFR = ———————————— × 1000
Women 15 – 49 at mid year
For example, in a particular village, the number of births during a year is 25, and
the number of women in the age-group 15-49 years is 1200, then the GFR can be
estimated as following:

25
GFR = —— × 1000 = 20.83
1200

1.4.3 Age Specific Fertility Rate

The Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR) is the number of live births per women
of a specific age-group (usually 5- year age groups from 15-19 to either 15-44,
or 45-49 years) of the population of a given geographical area during a given
year. The equation for GFR estimation:

Number of live births to women of a specific age group

ASFR = —————————————————————— × 1000
Mid year women population in the same age group

For example, if the number of live births to women in the age group 20-24 is
225, and the number of women in this age group is 1300 then

225
ASFR = ——— × 1000 = 173.07
1300

11
Population and Health Care The ASFR is usually given for five year age-group. In other words, the magnitude
of age is five. The AFSR of different age-group of women is given in the table
below.
Table-1.5: AFSR of Different Age-Group of Women
Age-group No. of Birth No. of women ASFR
15-19 20 100 20.0
20-24 80 200 400.0
25-29 90 220 409.1
30-34 85 210 404.8
35-39 75 190 394.7
40-44 50 170 294.1
45-49 5 150 33.3
Total 1956.0
Source: World Development Indicators, 2006

1.4.5 Total Fertility Rate

Total fertility rate (TFR) is defined as the sum of age specific fertility rates of
women by single year of age from 15 to 44 years (or 15 to 49 years) and is
expressed per woman. It is directly calculated as the sum of age-specific fertility
rates (usually referring to women aged 15 to 49 years), or five times the sum if
data are given in five-year age groups. The formula for TFR estimation is given
below.
Sum of Age Specific Fertility Rate
GFR = ——————————————— × Magnitude of Age Group
1000
For example,
1965 × 5
GFR = ———— × 9.82
1000
Here, the magnitude of age group is 5. The TFR also indicates the demographic
situation. As shown in the following Table –6, the TFR in the Sub Saharan Africa
continues to be very high, whereas, it is low in Europe and Central Asia, and
other high income countries, as given in Table -1.6.
Table-1.6: Total Fertility Rate by Region
Region 1970 1980 2004
East Asia & Pacific 5.4 3.0 2.1
Europe & Central Asia 2.5 2.2 1.8
Latin America & Caribbean 5.3 4.2 2.4
Middle East & North Africa 6.7 6.2 3.1
South Asia 6.0 5.2 3.1
Sub-Saharan Africa 6.8 6.7 5.4
High Income 2.5 1.9 1.7
World 4.8 3.7 2.6
12 Source: World Development Indicators, 2006.
Table-1.7 shows the TFR for different social and religious groups in India. Demographic Indicators:
Transition and Challenges
Whereas the TFR in India is 2.52 according to Census Report 2001, it is high
among Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes Communities and, also, among
Muslims. Factors such as low literacy levels in general, and among women in
particular, lack of education regarding health and family welfare, poor provision
of health and family welfare facilities are a few among many other factors
responsible for high total fertility rate.

Table-1.7: Social Groups in India & Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

Social Group TFR
All Population 2.52
SCs 2.89
STs 3.16
Hindu 2.47
Muslim 3.06
Christian 2.06
Sikh 1.86
Buddhist 2.29
Jain 1.50
Other Religious 2.99
Source: Census of India, 2001

1.4.6 Gross Reproduction Rate

The Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR) is related to female births. It is the number
of girls that are expected to be born to 1000 females passing through their child
bearing years. The equation of GRR is given below.

No. of Female Birth

GRR = ————————— = 0.45
Total Number of Brith
If the number of live births in a year is 25 out of which female birth are 13 and
the TFR is 5.6 then
13
GRR = —— × 5.6 = 2.96
25
This measure of fertility is based on the following assumptions:
a) The age specific birth rates are constant for a given year
b) No women dies during the child bearing age; and
c) All girls survive

1.4.7 Net Reproduction Rate (NRR)

The average number of daughters that would be born to a woman (or a group of
women) if she passed through her lifetime conforming to the age-specific fertility
and mortality rates of a given year. This rate is similar to the gross reproduction
rate, but takes into account that some women will die before completing their
13
Population and Health Care childbearing years. An NRR of one means that each generation of mothers has
exactly enough daughters to replace themselves in the population. The equation
of NRR is given below.

No. of Female Expected to be Born to 1000 Newly Born Girls

NRR = —————————————————————————
1000
For example, if 1200 female give birth to 1 girl each, then 1200 girls are born,
and if these girls live till fertility then the

1200
NRR = —–— = 1
1200
These are various measures of fertility. Let us now discuss various factors affecting
fertility.

1.4.8 Factors Affecting Fertility

Fertility depends on various factors of nutrition, sexual behaviour, culture, instinct,
endocrinology, timing, economics, way of life, and emotions. Broadly we may
classify these factors in following categories that affect fertility.
i) Biological Factors: the biological factors, such as age and sex affect fertility.
The age of the onset of menstruation among girls and menopause among
women are the biological limits to fertility. The food habit among the people
of certain area result in early onset of puberty among girls. Once the girls
start menstruating the possibility of their becoming mothers begins. Their
early exposure to sex and marriage contributes to higher fertility.
ii) Physiological Factors: physiological factors such as impotency among males
and sterility among women affect the fertility. Fertility is also affected by
abortion and still births. The abortion of the first pregnancy can result in
infertility among women. Nowadays, the drug habits among the younger
generation are leading to infertility.
iii) Religion: religion affects fertility in many societies. The birth of a son and
marriage of a daughter are considered as social and cultural obligation. This
leads to early marriage and increasing numbers of births until at least one
son is born. The practice of polygamy, as in the case of Muslims, naturally,
increases fertility. This not only enhances fertility but also affect the education
and health status of women in that society.
iv) Education: education plays an important role in influencing fertility. In
countries where the percentage of literates is high, fertility is low and vice
versa. Kerala, which has high literacy rate, has a lower fertility rate among
women in the country. Among the South Asian countries, Sri Lanka, with a
high literacy rate has lower fertility compared to other countries, like
Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, and Nepal.
v) Status of Women: fertility is also influenced by the status of women in a
society. It is found that fertility is low among women those who are educated
and are in the jobs, compared to their counterparts who are illiterates and
unemployed.

14
vi) Family Planning: an important factor affecting fertility is family planning. Demographic Indicators:
Transition and Challenges
Developed countries have been able to bring down their fertility rate by
voluntarily adopting family planning measures. There is a direct relationship
between the rate of adoption of family planning services and the rate of
fertility.

There are also many other factors, such as the caste system, racial groups, customs,
urbanization, and economic condition of families affect fertility.

In this section you studied about fertility, its meaning and measures, indicators
like growth rate, crude birth rate, general fertility rate, age specific fertility rate,
total fertility rate, gross reproduction rate, and net reproduction rate. Now, answer
the questions given in Check Your Progress 2.
Check Your Progress 2
Note: a) Write your answer in about 50 words.
b) Check your answer with possible answers given at the end of the unit
1) What do you mean by CBR? Write the formula for calculation of CBR?
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
2) Do biological factors affect fertility?
.......................................................................................................................
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1.5 MORTALITY AND ITS MEASURES

Mortality means death. The UN principles of Vital Statistical System, 1950
defined death as the permanent disappearance of all evidence of life at any time
after birth has taken place. Death does not include abortion and still birth. The
various methods of measuring mortality rate are discussed as under.

1.5.1 Crude Death Rate (CDR)

The crude death rate (CDR) is the ratio between the number of deaths in a
population during a given year and the total mid-year population for the same
year, usually multiplied by 1,000 for a given country, territory, or geographic
area. The formula of CDR is given below.
Deaths in a Year
CDR = ——————————— × 1000
Population at Mid – Year
15
Population and Health Care For example, if the total mid-year population of an area is 40,000 and numbers
of deaths are 400, then:

400
CDR = ——— × 1000 = 10
40000

Table-1.8: CDR in India (1951-01)

Year CDR
1950-51 27.4
1960-61 22.8
1970-71 19.0
1980-81 15.0
1990-91 12.5
2000-01 8.5
Source: Census of India, 2001

The death rate has declined over the decades. Various factors, like the increasing
level of literacy, urbanization, eradication of epidemics, besides the improved
provision of healthcare facilities in urban, as well as rural areas in India, have
resulted in decline of death rates over a period of time.

1.5.2 Infant Mortality Rate

A child in the age-group of 0-1 is called an infant. According to Barclay, “infants
are defined in demography as an exact age group namely age ‘zero’, or, those
children in the first year of life, who have not yet reached age one”. The Infant
Mortality Rate (IMR) indicates the number of deaths of children below one year
of age per thousand live births in a given year. The formula for infant mortality
rate is given below.

Number of deaths among infants registered during the year

IMR = ———————————————————————— × 1000
Number of live births in the same year

For example, if the number of live births in a specified year in an area is 15000,
and the number of registered deaths of infants in a year is 500, then, the infant
mortality rate is calculated in the following manner:

500
IMR = ——— × 1000 = 33.34
15000

1.5.3 Neo-natal Mortality Rate

This is the number of infant deaths under 28 days of age in a given year, per
1,000 live births in that year. Deaths occurring during the first year of life are
usually concentrated in the first week or month. Considering this, the IMR can
be broken into the following three parts:
i) Early Neonatal Mortality Rate
16
ii) Late Neonatal Mortality Rate Demographic Indicators:
Transition and Challenges
iii) Post-Neonatal Mortality Rate
iv) Prenatal Mortality Rate
The equations used for these rates are as follows:

No. of Deaths within one week

Early Neonatal MR = ————————————— × 1000
No. of Live Births

No. of Deaths 1 to 4 weeks

Late Neonatal MR = ————————————— × 1000
No. of Live Births

No. of Deaths 4 to 52 weeks

Post Neonatal MR = ————————————— × 1000
No. of Live Births

Still Births + Deaths in tirst week of life

Pre-Neonatal MR = ————————————————— × 1000
No. of Live Births

1.5.4 Child Mortality Rate

Child Mortality Rate or under -5 mortality rate is the number of children who die
by the age of five per thousand live birth. The equation is

the number of children who die by the age of five

CMR = —————————————————————
the number of live birth by the age of five

1.5.5 Age- Specific Death Rate (ASDR)

Age- Specific Death Rate is calculated as the number of deaths in a particular
age group to the mid-year population of the age group. The equation is:
number of deaths in a particular age group
ASDR = ——————————————————× 1000
Mid year population of the age group

1.5.6 Cause Specific Death Rate (CSDR)

Deaths may be caused by malaria, AIDS, typhoid, accident, or any other disease
or reason. Such cause specific deaths can be calculated with the following formula:

number of deaths due to a particular cause in a year

CSDR = ————————————————————— × 1000
Total number of mid year deaths

1.5.7 Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR)

Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) is the number of women who die as a result of
pregnancy and childbirth complications per 100,000 live births in a given year.
The equation of MMR is given below.
Number of maternal deaths relating to child bearing
MMR = ————————————————————— × 1000
Number of live birth
17
Population and Health Care 1.5.8 Factors Affecting Mortality
Mortality or death is affected by factors such as biological, physiological,
environmental, and others. In its manual on the International Statistical
Classification of Causes of Death, the World Health Organization (WHO) has
classified deaths under the following categories:
• Infectious, parasitic, and respiratory disease
• Cancer
• Diseases of the circulatory system
• Violence and accidents
• All other causes, such as diseases of the digestive system.
In the past, the mortality rate was high because of food shortages and famines,
spread of epidemics, insanitary conditions, and, long and recurrent wars. However,
with rapid advancements in medical sciences, many diseases have been controlled,
and a few have also been eradicated. A few factors those have enabled the
developing countries to control mortality are given below.
i) Availability of disease control medicines and help from bilateral organizations
like the WHO, UNICEF, UNFPA have enabled developing and poor nations
to control diseases and deaths.
ii) Many public health programmes, such as the National Tuberculosis Control
Programme, the National Malaria Eradication Programme, and the Maternal
and Child Health Programme have been launched with the help of
international organizations in many countries. These programmes have helped
developing nations to control diseases.
iii) The governments of many countries have taken adequate steps for the
provision of sanitation and safe drinking water to its people. This has also
helped to control the diseases and deaths relating to sanitation and water.
iv) With the spread of education in general and health education in particular,
people are becoming health conscious. Moreover, advertisement of health
messages in TV and radio has promoted education among people. All these
have brought down death rates.
v) The status of women in society has been improving. It is the women who
take care of the health of their children and family. As women’s education is
scaling up day by day, it has helped to reduce the death rate.
vi) After the advent of the Primary Health Care System from 1977, a number of
primary health care institutions, such as Community Health Centres, Primary
Health Centres (PHCs), and health sub-centres have been opened in rural
and far flung areas. These institutions, manned with trained manpower,
personnel, equipment and medicines are being able to control morbidity and
mortality to a great extent.
vii) Civil society organizations such as youth clubs, Mahila Mandals, Panchayati
Raj Institutions, and NGOs play an important role in health care delivery
system. The role of civil society organizations in Tamil Nadu is widely
recognized as an instrument for controlling both fertility and mortality in
that state. Therefore, the role of non-state actors has been recognized as a
18
crucial factor for controlling mortality.
In this section you studied about mortality and its measures, crude death rate, Demographic Indicators:
Transition and Challenges
infant mortality rate, neo-natal mortality rate, cause specific death rate, maternal
mortality rate, age- specific death rate. Now, answer the questions in Check Your
Progress 3.
Check Your Progress 3
Note: a) Write your answer in about 50 words.
b) Check your answer with possible answers given at the end of the unit.
1) What do you mean by IMR?
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
2) What is MMR?
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................

1.6 AGE AND SEX STRUCTURE

The age-sex composition of population at any single point in time is crucial for
understanding the dynamics of population change. Age and sex distributions are
described by using population pyramids, the sex-ratio and dependency ratios.

1.6.1 Population Pyramid

Population pyramids are an elegant and useful way of graphically presenting an
age-sex distribution. As shown in the illustration below, a pyramid essentially
comprises two ordinary histograms placed on their sides and back to back. Some
of the features of the Age-Sex pyramid are:
1) Pyramids are always drawn showing the male population on the left hand
side and the female population on the right hand side.
2) The young are always at the bottom and the old at the top.
3) Customarily either single-year or five-year age groups are used. However,
other age groupings are possible.
4) The last open-ended age-group is normally omitted entirely from the pyramid
because it is impossible to draw it truthfully.
5) The bottom scale can be graduated as either absolute numbers or percentages.
19
Population and Health Care The shape of the pyramid is not affected at all. However it is essential that
the percentages are calculated using as a base, the total population of both
sexes combined. If the percentages are calculated separately for males and
females, then the pyramid will present a false picture. An example of a
population pyramid is given below.

Age-Sex Pyramid

1.6.2 The Sex Ratio

The sex-ratio is simply the ratio of males to females in the population. It is
normally expressed as the number of males per 1000 females.

Males
Sex Ratio = ———— × 1000
Females

The sex ratio in India has been declining since 1901, though it indicated some
improvement in 2001 (Table–1.9). In urban areas, it is lower as compared to
rural areas. The third feature of sex-ratio is that it is lower in northern Indian
States of Punjab and Haryana, particularly sex-ratio in the age group of 0-6 year
as compared to southern Indian States of Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

Table-1.9: Change in Sex Ratio of Indian Population (1901-2001)

Year Rural Urban Total
1901 979 910 972
1911 975 872 964
1921 970 846 955
1931 966 838 950
1941 965 831 945
1951 965 860 946
1961 963 845 941
1971 949 858 930
1981 951 879 934
1991 938 894 927
2001 946 900 933
Source: Census of India, 1991 and 2001.
20
According to the 2001 Censes, the state with the highest sex-ratio in India is Demographic Indicators:
Transition and Challenges
Kerala, having 1058 females per 1000 males. The state with the lowest sex-ratio
is Haryana with 861 females per 1000 males.

1.6.3 Dependency Ratio

Dependency ratio is another important measure of the age distribution of
population. It describes the number of dependent persons that are supported by
the active or working members of the population. It is the ratio of the economically
dependent part of the population to the productive part; arbitrarily defined as the
ratio of the elderly (ages 65 and older) plus the young (under age 15) to the
population in the working ages (ages 15-64). The Total Dependency Ratio (TDR)
is the sum total of Child Dependency Ratio (CDR) and Old Age Dependency
Ratio (ODR). The equations for calculating CDR and ODR are given below.

Children below age 15

Child Dependecy Ratio = ———————————— × 1000
Persons 15 – 64 years of age

Persons age 65 years above

Old Age Dependecy Ratio = ———————————— × 1000
Persons 15 – 64 years of age

Total Dependecy Ratio = Child Dependency Ratio + Old Age Dependency Ratio

For example, assume that in an area, the persons of age 65 years and over are
80001 and children of age 15 years and under are 291220. Further, suppose the
number of persons between 15-64 years of age is 4211 96. Then the dependency
ratios are:

291220
Child Dependency Ratio = ———— × 1000 = 69.14
421196

80001
Old Age Dependecy Ratio = ——— × 1000 = 18.99
421196

Total Dependecy Ratio = 69.14 + 18.99 = 88.13

In this section, you read about the age and sex structure, population pyramid, sex
ratio, and the dependency ratio. Now, answer the questions given in Check Your
Progress 4.

Check Your Progress 4

Note: a) Write your answer in about 50 words.
b) Check your answer with possible answers given at the end of the unit.
1) What do you mean by Sex Ratio?
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
21
Population and Health Care 2) What is Old Age Dependency Ratio?
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................

1.7 DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES

Over the years the changes taking place in demographic indicators have presented
a number of challenges. In fact, the challenges of demographic change and its
widespread economic and social implications have received considerable
attention, both in developed as well as developing countries. However, the nature
and scale of demographic developments varies from country to country. Some
of the demographic challenges are presented below.
i) While the world’s population continues to grow, population growth is
negative in many industrial countries, such as Europe and Japan.
ii) The ageing population is increasing in many countries. Therefore, very
soon many countries have to deal with the effects of ageing societies. In
some industrial countries, the active population will equal the number of
pensioners in only a few decades time.
iii) The increasing population in the developing countries has resulted in
international migration. Moreover, among the developing countries, rise in
population in the poorer state (particularly in India) has resulted in interstate
migration. Internal migration sometimes leads to tension between the
migrants and local people.
iv) The declining sex-ratio in some countries particularly in India is a cause of
concern. The declining ratio has resulted in demographic imbalances and a
negation of gender empowerment. The low sex ratio has also yielded social
problems like early marriage and sexual atrocities on female sex.
v) Delayed marriage, less marriage, and no marriage in European countries
and Japan has become the hallmark of a second demographic transition.
Many interrelated social, economic, and lifestyle changes have been
identified as the driving forces of the shift towards delayed entry into
parenthood.
vi) Gay marriages and same sex marriage will pose another challenge to
demographic transition in developed countries. Moreover, these two trends
are found to have a place in the liberal democratic nations.
vii) The rural to urban migration is a serious demographic challenge. This is a
transition of rural poverty to urban areas. Urban areas face multiple
problems, such as unemployment, housing, drinking water, and sanitation.
Moreover, it has also given rise to many social evils, such as pick pocketing,
robbery, snatching, rape, and murder in urban areas.

22
viii) In developing countries, where fertility in declining very slowly, the Demographic Indicators:
Transition and Challenges
population increase poses many problems. The provision of education,
health care, sanitation, and drinking water are a huge investment on the
part of the welfare government.
ix) It is widely believed that China and India are enjoying the ‘demographic
dividend’ because of the higher percentage of youth in their population.
This demographic dividend also necessitates investment in education and
in the health of the youth in order for them to move from dependency to
assets.

In this section, you read about demographic challenges. Now answer the question
in Check Your Progress 5.
Check Your Progress 5
Note: a) Write your answer in about 50 words.
b) Check your answer with possible answers given at the end of the unit
1) Explain a few demographic challenges.
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................

1.8 LET US SUM UP

In this unit, we discussed the meaning and various measures of demography.
The calculations for demographic measures such as birth rate, death rate, infant
mortality rate, and maternal mortality rate have been discussed. The factors
promoting fertility and those that result in mortality have also been discussed. A
section is devoted to the age-sex structure of population. The sex ratio calculation
has become very important as the declining sex-ratio, particularly in the age-
group 0-6, is a cause of concern for a few northern Indian states of India. The
formulae for the calculation of dependency ratio have also been given in this
section. The last section of this unit is devoted to demographic challenges. It
says that the population is a cause of concern both for the developed as well as
developing country. The declining trend of population is far below the replacement
level, it is a cause of concern for many European nations. This unit, in a nutshell,
deals with the dynamics of population, which will help the reader in making the
calculations for different demographic measures.

1.9 REFERENCES AND SELECTED READINGS

Mishra, B D (1994), An Introduction to The Study of Population, South Asian
Publisher Pvt. Ltd, New Delhi.

Jhingan, M L & Others (2003), Demography, Vrinda Publications (P) Ltd, New
Delhi.
23
Population and Health Care Newell, (1988), Methods and Models in Demography, Belhaven Press, London.

Seshadri, C and J L Pandey (1991), Population Education : A National Source

Book (Vol 1), National Council of Education Research and Training NCERT,
New Delhi.

Srinivasan, K (2004), Population & Development in India Since Independence:

An Overview” Journal of Family Welfare, vol. 50

1.10 CHECK YOUR PROGRESS: POSSIBLE

ANSWERS
Check Your Progress 1

1) What do you mean by Demography?

Answer: In common parlance, demography means the study of population.
According to Donald J Bougue “Demography is a statistical and
mathematical study of the size, composition, spatial of changes overtime in
these aspects through the operation of the five processes of fertility, mortality,
marriage, migration, and social mobility.”

2) Define Proportion?
Answer: A proportion is a ratio in which the number of the numerator is
included in the denominator. The formula used for the calculation of
proportion is as follows:
x
Proportion = ———
x+y
If someone has to calculate the proportion of female population in the
Kartarpur Village to the male population then

900
Proportion = ————— = 0.45
1100 + 900
Note that a proportion could vary between 0.00 to 1.0. The proportion is
converted to percentage by multiplying by 100.

Check Your Progress 2

1) What do you mean by CBR ? Write the formula for calculation of CBR?
Answer: The CBR is defined as the ratio of total number of live births (B)
in a calendar year in a particular geographical area to the total mid-year
population (P) of that area. The ratio is frequently multiplied by 1000. In
other words, CBR is always expressed in per 1000 population. The equation
of CBR is as follow.

Birth in a year
CBR = —————————— × 1000
Population at mid year
2) Are biological factors affecting fertility?
Answer: Biological factors such as age and sex affect fertility. For example,
24 the onset of menstruation among girls and menopause among women are
 the biological limits to fertility. The food habits of people in certain areas Demographic Indicators:
Transition and Challenges
result in the early onset of puberty among girls, which in turn leads to early
exposure to sex and marriage.

Check Your Progress 3

1) What do you mean by IMR?
Answer: IMR means the death of a child below one year of age. The formula
for infant mortality rate is given below.

Number of deaths among infants registered during the year

IMR = ———————————————————————— × 1000
Number of live births in the same year

2) What is MMR?
Answer: MMR is the number of maternal deaths related to childbearing
divided by the number of live births in that year. The equation of MMR

Number of maternal deaths relating to child bearing

MMR = ————————————————————— × 1000
Number of live birth

Check Your Progress 4

1) What do you mean by Sex Ratio?

Answer: The sex ratio is the number of females per thousand male in any
region. The formula of sex ratio is as follow.

Females
Sex Ratio = ———— × 1000
Male

2) What is Old Age Dependency Ratio?

Answer: The old age dependency ration is the ratio of number of person
above 65 year to the total population in the age-group 15-64. The formula
of Old Age Sex Ratio (OSR) is as follow.

Persons of 65 years and above

Post Neonatal MR = ————————————— × 1000
Persons 15 – 64 years of age

Check Your Progress 5

1) Explain a few demographic challenges?
Answer: There are following demographic challenges. First and foremost,
one side world’s population is continuously growing, while the population
growth is negative in many industrial countries like in Europe and Japan.
Second, the ageing population is increasing in many countries, therefore,
many countries have to deal with the effects of ageing societies. Third, the
increasing population in the developing countries has resulted in international
migration. Internal migration sometimes leads to tension between the
migrants and local people.

25