Demography & Population Studies
Demography & Population Studies
&
Population Studies
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Demography & Population Studies
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Population Studies
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Determinants for Population Change
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Births/ Fertility and its measures
1. Crude birth rate (CBR)
Annual births divided by total mid-year population or the
no. of birth per 1000 population.
=Annual Births
Total mid-year population
Or
No. of births per 1000 population
i.e = (B/P)X 1000
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Births/ Fertility and its measures
2. General Fertility Rate (GFR)
When data are available according to age & sex-distribution
of population, some improvement over CBR can be
obtained by suing GFR. It is the no. of birth per 1000
women aged 15-49
i.e. GFR= total annual births X 1000
total mid-year population of
women aged 15-49
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Births/ Fertility and its measures
3. Age specific fertility rate (ASFR)
Live birth to women aged X in a year divided by mean
population of women aged x
i.e. ASFR= live birth to women aged X in a year
mean population of women aged X of same year
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Births/ Fertility and its measures
4. Total fertility rate (TFR)
By adding ASFR for women from 15-49 years of age one
can obtain TFR. It is the index of childbearing performance
of a woman or group of women during her//their total
childbearing period
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Determinants for Population Change
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Deaths/ mortality & its measures
1. CDR (Crude Death Rate)
It is the total no. of deaths of person of all ages in 1 year
divided by total population at the mid of that year.
2. ASDR (Age specific Death Rate)
Total no. of deaths to persons un X specific age group
(except for infants< 1 year) by total population in that age
group at the mid of the year. Usually 5 year age group are
taken.
ASDR= death at aged X in a year
mid year population aged X
Deaths/ mortality & its measures
3. Average life expectancy at birth
Avg. no. of year a newborn can expect to live if they are
exposed to experience the current ASDR. One can also
compute life expectancy from other ages. E.g. 20 years or
65 years, etc.
4. Infant mortality rate
It is the no. of deaths to children under 1 year of age per
1000 live births in the same year.
5. Child mortality rate
No. of deaths to children aged between age 1 yr & 5 year
per 1000 children in the same age group (mid year)
Determinants of Population Change
▪ Migration >>
▪ Geographic or spatial mobility for permanent change in
usual residence between clearly defined political statistical
units
▪ better economic opportunities (mostly), attraction of
milder or more suitable climates, desire for better living
or housing conditions (applies particularly to short
distance migration within the same general locality), and
movements for reasons of health, education or
retirement.
▪ also influenced by peace or war, prosperity or depression
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etc. eg. US, Australia, Canada, Syria, etc.
Determinants of Population Change
Migration >>
▪ In-migrant- person who moves in a political area within the
same country
▪ Out-migrant- person who moves out of a political area
within the same country
▪ Immigrant- International migrant who enters the area from
a place outside the country
▪ Emigrant- International migrant departing to another
country by crossing international boundary.
▪ Net migration: In-migrant-Out migrants
▪ Net immigration: Immigrants-Emigrants
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▪ Gross migration: in-migrants + out-migrants
Sources of Demographic Data
The sources of demographic data are mainly:
▪ Population census
▪ Registration of vital events, and
▪ Sample survey
Sources of Demographic Data
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Sources of Demographic Data
In census operation >> each individual >> important
characteristics such as sex, age, marital status, religion,
literacy, educational attainment, income, occupation,
language etc. is recorded.
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Sources of Demographic Data
Population Census
▪ National Population and Housing Census (NPHC) is
part of integrated national statistical system of Nepal
▪ It provides the benchmark for population count at national
and sub-national levels at regular intervals of ten years.
▪ In Nepal, the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), under
the National Planning Commission (NPC), Government
of Nepal (GoN), is responsible for planning,
implementation and management of all census activities,
including collection, processing, editing, tabulation of data
and final dissemination of results.
▪ First population census of Nepal dates back to 1911. 23
Sources of Demographic Data
B) Vital Registration System(VRS) / Civil Registration
System
▪ It is the legal registration, statistical recording & reporting
of the various events which include collection, compiling,
analysis, presentation & distribution of statics pertaining to
vital events which in turn include:
1) birth 2) death 3)marriage 4) divorce.
A birth, death or marriage certificate >> issued as a proof
>> which assists in legal matters >> like citizenship,
properties, inheritance etc.
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Sources of Demographic Data
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Population Structure
b) Age Structure
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POPULATION STRUCTURE
The population pyramid displays the age and sex structure of a country or
given area
Old
Dependants
Economically
Population in Active
Five Year
Age bands
Young
Dependants
-3.3 3.1
-4.2 3.9
-5.3 4.9
-6.6 6.5
-8 7.8
-9.1 9.6
-11 11.3
-11.6 11.3
-12 12
-11.6 11.5
-9.4 9.6
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
▪ Population Characteristics
▪ Shows relationship between different Attributes of the
population >> marital status, literacy, income,
language, religion, occupation, household size etc.
▪ strong co-relation on population structure (Sex & Age).
▪ For eg, higher rate of marital status will result high
fertility whereas higher literacy and income results low
fertility and low mortality. Similarly, fertility can also be
influenced by religion.
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Population Distribution
▪ Spatial distribution >> is described in terms of spatial
density, composition and dynamics and seeks to provide
explanations for the changes in the pattern of population
distribution.
▪ Influenced by different factors
▪ a) geographical factors (Climate, landforms in terms of
altitudes, quality of soil, water, availability of energy and
mineral resources etc.
▪ b) economic and social factors and
▪ c) demographic factors.
Directly affects planning >> in terms of allocation of various
land uses and where to provide infrastructure and social36
and economic facilities.
Population Projection
▪ Essential for planning future needs of the public &
private sector at state or country level
▪ It depends on a time frame set by the plan and on the type
of the projects
For eg. water supply scheme for an urban area, 50 to 60 or perhaps
even 100 years into the future.
▪ There are various analytical, graphical and mathematical
methods of making population forecasts.
▪ The common forms of the analytical approach are the
cohort-survival method, the migration, etc.
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Population Projection
▪ Age groups and Sex groups >> year by year / five-year
interval basis Normally its done for five years.
▪ The fertility ratio is used to fill in estimate of new persons
in the 0-4 year category.
▪ Fertility ratio is the number of children per 1000
females of child bearing age at the end of the five year
time span.
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Population Projection
▪ Migration rates and natural increase rates are
estimated from past trends.
▪ Graphical methods plot past trends on plain coordinate
graph paper and uses the best-fit straight line projection to
estimate the future population.
▪ Mathematical models use simple linear regression (least
squares) model, multiple regression model, non-linear
models such as the Gompertz or Logistic models, etc. etc.
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Population Projection
▪ Calculation methods:
▪ Arithmetic methods or projection>> linear change & geometric
growth method.
▪ Exponential growth model
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Population Projection of Nepal
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/NPL/nepal/populatio
n-growth-rate
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Population Projection of Nepal
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/NPL/nepal/populatio
n-growth-rate
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Population Projection of Nepal
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https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/NPL/ne
pal/population-growth-rate
What Population Pyramids Show Us
Economically Economically
More Less
Developed Developed
Country Country
KEY
slope of pyramid indicate the death rate
height of graph can indicate life expectancy (ignore the very thin end of the
wedge as occurs on graph B as these people are a definite minority)
▪ Introduction
▪ Types
▪ Economical importance
▪ Social importance
▪ Employment and planning
Employment
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Employment- Economic Importance
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Employment- Social Importance
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Employment- Social Importance
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Employment & Development Planning
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Transportation- Environmental Impact
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Transportation- Environmental Impact
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Transportation- Sustainable Development Impact
▪ The United Nation had first formally recognized the role of transport
in sustainable development in the 1992 United Nation's Earth summit.
▪ In the 2012 United Nation's World Conference, recognized that
transport and mobility are central to achieving the sustainability
targets.
▪ In recent years, data has been collected to show that the transport
sector contributes to a quarter of the global greenhouse gas emissions,
and therefore sustainable transport has been mainstreamed across
several of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, especially those
related to food, security, health, energy, economic growth,
infrastructure, and cities and human settlements.
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Transportation- Sustainable Development Impact
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Transportation- Classification of Urban Road
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Transportation- Classification of Rural Road
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Transportation- Street Design
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Utilities and Services: water supply
▪ Water supply >> water quality, continuity of supply, service quality (
water pressure, Ministry of water supply
▪ Source: For small area>> deep ells, lakes, streams
For large area>> surface water like river, lakes >> eg,
Melamchi, Sundarijal in Kathmandu, Godavari in Lalitpur
▪ Use: for household uses and fire fighting
▪ Demand calculation: liters per capita per day (LPCD)
▪ Developed country: more than 500 lpd ( calculated in 700 lpd)
▪ Developing country: less than 50 lpd
▪ Current demand: more than 300 lpd
▪ Current supply: 120 lpd ++
▪ Distribution system: Grid iron system; Dead end system
Utilities and Services: water supply
▪ Water supply >> water quality, continuity of supply, service quality (
water pressure, Ministry of water supply
▪ Source: For small area>> deep ells, lakes, streams
For large area>> surface water like river, lakes >> eg,
Melamchi, Sundarijal in Kathmandu, Godavari in Lalitpur
▪ Use: for household uses and fire fighting
▪ Demand calculation: liters per capita per day (LPCD)
▪ Developed country: more than 500 lpd ( calculated in 700 lpd)
▪ Developing country: less than 50 lpd
▪ Current demand: more than 300 lpd
▪ Current supply: 120 lpd ++
▪ Distribution system: Grid iron system; Dead end system
Utilities and Services: water supply
▪ Grid iron system > efficient to maintain pressure
▪ Dead end system
> designed in tree branching pattern
> difficult to operate in low pressure mode
> Operate at lower cost
> Easy to add a branch (eg. Like we have in Ktm valley)
Utilities and Services: waste water
▪ Waste water management> remove contaminants from wastewater
and convert it into an effluent that can be returned to the water cycle.
▪ The treatment process takes place in a wastewater treatment plant
▪ For domestic wastewater (also called municipal wastewater or
sewage), the treatment plant is called a sewage treatment plant.
▪ For industrial wastewater, treatment either takes place in a
separate industrial wastewater treatment plant, or in a sewage
treatment plant (usually after some form of pre-treatment)
▪ Further types of wastewater treatment plants include agricultural
wastewater treatment plants and leachate treatment plants
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Utilities and Services: waste water
▪ Processes commonly used include phase separation (such as
sedimentation), biological and chemical processes (such as
oxidation) or polishing.
▪ The main by-product from wastewater treatment plants is a type of
sludge which is usually treated in the same or another wastewater
treatment plant.
▪ Biogas can be another by-product if anaerobic treatment processes
are used. Some wastewater may be highly treated and reused as
reclaimed water.
▪ The main purpose of wastewater treatment is for the treated
wastewater to be able to be disposed or reused safely.
▪ However, before it is treated, the options for disposal or reuse must
be considered so the correct treatment process is used on the
wastewater
Utilities and Services: solid waste management
▪ Solid Waste management
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