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The Covid Resilience Ranking
U.S., Europe Rise in Best Places to Be in
Covid; Asia Suffers
By Jinshan Hong, Rachel Chang and Kevin Varley
25 May 2021
There’s a shakeup at the top of Bloomberg’s Covid
Resilience Ranking, with last month’s No. 1—Singapore—
falling in May along with other Asian economies that had
contained the virus, while countries leading on
vaccination continue to climb the rungs.
Lauded for its handling of the pathogen, the Asia-Pacific
region accounted for all seven of the biggest declines this
month in the measure of the best and worst places to be
in the pandemic. Taiwan and Japan dropped out of the
top 10 amid sluggish inoculation drives and resurgent
cases, while some of the world’s fiercest outbreaks held
down places in Southeast and South Asia.
In contrast, the U.S. and parts of Europe have been
steadily climbing up the Ranking as the pandemic slowly
recedes in these places. With vaccine protection
growing, they’re re-opening travel, scrapping mask
mandates and looking to leave Covid-19 behind: the U.K.
jumped 7 spots to 11th and the U.S. is No. 13.
The reversal of fortunes reflects the game-changing
impact of vaccination, especially rollouts of the
breakthrough mRNA shots that not only prevent serious
disease and death but appear to quell the virus’s spread.
Places like France, Czech Republic and Poland saw
double-digit jumps in their Ranking positions as Europe’s
inoculation drive accelerated and lockdowns were lifted.
Asia’s Decline
Notable shifts in the Covid Resilience Ranking !
2020 2021
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
1 New Zealand
2 Singapore
4 Israel
11 U.K.
13 U.S.
14 Japan
15 Taiwan
27 Thailand
35 Malaysia
50 India
53 Argentina
The Covid Resilience Ranking uses a wide range of data
to capture where the pandemic is being handled most
effectively, with the least social and economic disruption
—from mortality and testing rates to vaccine access and
freedom of movement. Each month, it scores economies
of more than $200 billion prior to the pandemic on 10
core metrics.
New Zealand regained the top position it held for five
consecutive months until April with Covid all but wiped
out in the island nation, allowing its people the freedoms
of pre-Covid life—except for international travel.
Still, its vaccine rollout has barely started with only 5% of
the population covered, leaving New Zealand potentially
vulnerable to the same dynamic that’s knocked other
stars of virus containment.
Covid Resilience Ranking
Get info and sort on table headers !
← Worse Better →
COVID STATUS QUALITY OF LIFE ⇣
1-MONTH TOTAL PEOPLE
BLOOMBERG CASES 1-MONTH DEATHS COVERED
RESILIENCE PER FATALITY PER 1 POSITIVE BY
RANK CHANGE ECONOMY SCORE 100,000 RATE MILLION TEST RATE VACCINES
1 ▲1 New 80.8 1 0% 5 0.1% 4.8%
Zealand
2 ▼1 Singapore 79.4 15 0.2% 5 0% 29.9%
3 – Australia 79.1 1 0% 36 0% 7.1%
4 – Israel 75.4 16 4% 740 0.1% 58.3%
5 ▲1 South Korea 73.8 34 0.7% 38 2.3% 5.4%
6 ▲3 Finland 73.8 107 0.5% 168 1.4% 24.1%
7 ▲8 Norway 72.2 222 0.4% 144 2.1% 21.9%
8 ▲6 Denmark 71.4 458 0.1% 433 0.4% 26.1%
9 ▲3 Mainland 71.4 0 0% 3 0.1% 17.8%
China
10 – Hong Kong 71.3 1 1% 28 0% 14.3%
11 ▲7 U.K. 70.9 88 0.5% 1,885 0.2% 45.4%
12 ▼4 U.A.E. 70.7 477 0.2% 167 1.2% 56.3%
13 ▲4 U.S. 70.3 324 1.7% 1,782 3.8% 44.5%
14 ▼7 Japan 68.1 123 1.5% 97 6.1% 3.2%
15 ▼ 10 Taiwan 67.8 12 0.2% 1 1.7% 0.6%
16 ▲5 Switzerland 66.8 472 0.4% 1,245 4.8% 23.3%
17 ▲7 Spain 66.6 359 1.2% 1,703 0.1% 25.8%
18 ▲1 Canada 66.1 494 0.7% 668 4.8% 27.6%
19 ▼3 Saudi Arabia 65.6 85 1.2% 208 1.4% 18.9%
20 ▲3 Portugal 65.3 110 0.5% 1,669 1.1% 23.6%
21 ▲7 Austria 63.8 382 1.4% 1,171 0.3% 25.7%
22 ▲3 Ireland 63.4 176 0.8% 1,001 2.3% 19.9%
23 ▼ 12 Vietnam 62.6 2 0.3% 0 0.5% 0.5%
24 ▲ 18 France 61.9 683 1.2% 1,660 4% 25.8%
25 ▲6 Belgium 61.1 663 1.1% 2,143 5.7% 26.3%
26 ▼4 Russia 60.9 167 4.3% 798 2.7% 8.2%
27 ▼ 14 Thailand 60.3 110 0.8% 11 3.5% 2.1%
28 ▼2 Germany 59.6 437 1.6% 1,043 8.3% 26.7%
29 ▲4 Netherlands 59.1 1,023 0.3% 1,040 10.6% 24.1%
30 ▲7 Italy 58.8 401 2.6% 2,071 2.3% 25.4%
31 ▲ 13 Czech 57.8 372 2.8% 2,803 0.4% 21.7%
Republic
32 – Sweden 57.5 1,188 0.4% 1,422 10.1% 22%
33 ▲6 Greece 56.6 557 3.1% 1,129 4.3% 22.9%
34 ▼7 South Africa 56.2 103 2.7% 941 8.4% 1%
35 ▼ 15 Malaysia 56 376 0.7% 69 6.4% 3.6%
36 – Chile 55.5 874 1.7% 1,492 9.9% 45.2%
37 ▼8 Nigeria 54.6 1 0.4% 10 1.2% 0.4%
38 ▲2 Romania 54.4 160 8.7% 1,556 3.6% 19.1%
39 ▲ 13 Poland 54.1 301 6.8% 1,927 4.2% 23.5%
40 ▲1 Bangladesh 52.1 28 3.1% 75 7.7% 2.9%
41 ▲5 Turkey 51.5 706 1.4% 549 5.2% 16.8%
42 ▼8 Indonesia 50.9 51 3.5% 180 10.7% 4.6%
43 ▲2 Philippines 50.5 174 1.7% 182 13.2% 1.5%
44 ▼1 Iraq 49.2 355 0.7% 403 12.4% 0.7%
45 ▼7 Egypt 49 32 5.3% 144 — 0.7%
46 ▼ 11 Pakistan 46.5 50 2.9% 92 8% 1.2%
47 ▲1 Mexico 46.3 53 9.8% 1,719 17.4% 10.2%
48 ▲1 Iran 46.1 542 2.1% 936 8.8% 1.4%
49 ▼2 Peru 46 506 5% 2,057 15.4% 4.7%
50 ▼ 20 India 43.9 719 1.1% 217 15.4% 7.1%
51 ▲2 Brazil 43.4 835 3.4% 2,113 — 14.9%
52 ▼2 Colombia 39.4 934 2.9% 1,665 26.6% 8.2%
53 ▼2 Argentina 36.4 1,535 1.8% 1,639 30.6% 12.3%
Show only 20 ▲
Note: Latest data as of May 24, 2pm Hong Kong time. See
more here.
Read more about the methodology behind the
Bloomberg Covid Resilience Ranking
After infections crept back through stringent border
defenses, Singapore and Taiwan risk becoming stuck in
new cycles of lockdown restrictions as they react
aggressively to flareups that are mere fractions of those
still being seen in some western countries that are
already starting to reopen. This zero tolerance for any
cases—also seen in No. 3 Australia, China at No. 9 and
Hong Kong at No. 10—may become an Achilles Heel as
other parts of the world accept Covid is endemic, and
move on.
Staying Home
Singapore moves back toward lockdown as local
infections rise
Community Covid cases % change of retail & work mobility vs pre-Covid
50
-50
Feb Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
2020 2021
Source: Singapore Ministry of Health, Google Covid-19 Community
Mobility Reports
Note: Data takes seven-day average to smooth out fluctuations.
With new virus strains continuing to emerge, Singapore
is examining its inoculation efforts, planning to stretch
out the time between vaccine doses so that it can cover
more of its adult population with first shots, a strategy
pioneered by the U.K. in December. That’s also being
done in India, where a devastating new Covid wave is
wiping out entire families. The world’s second-most
populous country—which is seeing about 250,000 cases
and 4,000 deaths a day—plunged 20 rungs to fourth-last
of the 53 economies ranked.
Ambulance staff carry the body of a Covid-19 victim inside a
crematorium in New Delhi on May 21. Photographer: Prakash
Singh/AFP/Getty Images
Argentina fell to last position in May as new infections
surged past previous records, leading to a stricter
lockdown.
The question now is whether new and concerning
variants emerging from outbreaks in India and Latin
America will stymie the quest for normalization in places
like the U.S. and fourth-ranked Israel, and if Asia can
catch up in the vaccination race.
The nascent revival of global travel and the road to
reopening will be at the core of the Covid Resilience
Ranking as we move into June.
Jump to section ! Notable Movers Vaccine Advantage The Poverty Trap
Magic Formula? What Next? Back to the Ranking ↑
Notable Movers
Here are some other big shifts upward over the past
month:
•
France and Poland rise 18 and 13 places respectively as
new infections in both nations slow, allowing them to
ease restrictions, gradually reopen businesses and
resume regional travel.
•
Czech Republic climbs 13 rungs, and Norway eight, as
waning outbreaks allow people to move around more.
•
Italy, once the tragic epicenter of Europe’s Covid fight,
jumps seven spots as it relaxes restrictions on
businesses and quarantine rules following a decline in
severe cases.
And down:
•
Taiwan—which ranked fifth in April—fell to 15th after the
entire island went into soft lockdown to quell the recent
return of locally-transmitted cases, after months with
no spread.
•
Japan slips seven places as the government expands a
state of emergency to contain infections before Tokyo is
set to host the Olympics in July.
•
Malaysia falls 15 spots and Vietnam 12 positions after
restrictions were tightened to curb new outbreaks.
•
Thailand, which was largely successful in containing
Covid last year, plummets 14 spots as cases surge with
outbreaks in prisons, construction camps and densely
populated parts of the capital, Bangkok.
Slow Vaccinations
At current paces, it will take some Asia economies
years to build immunity
Years needed to cover 75% of the population from now Shorter than a year
Mainland China
Singapore
Hong Kong
Japan
Australia
New Zealand
South Korea
Malaysia
India
Thailand
Indonesia
Philippines
Pakistan
Taiwan
Bangladesh
Vietnam
0 2 4 6 8 10 years
Source: Bloomberg's Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker
Note: Based on current vaccination pace. Data as of May 25.
Bangladesh and Vietnam need 10+ years.
Vaccine Advantage
It’s in vaccination where places like the U.S. and U.K.
have made up for lost ground, rising rapidly in the Covid
Resilience Ranking as investment in research and a focus
on fast rollouts proves pivotal to their leads when it
comes to shots. The U.S.’s Operation Warp Speed saw
some $18 billion plowed into developing the first Covid
vaccines—which have now been administered to the
equivalent of 45% of the American population.
Members of the public line up for Covid-19 vaccine in Bolton,
U.K., on May 14. Photographer: Anthony Devlin/Bloomberg
In Israel, where close to 60% of the country’s 9 million
people have been fully vaccinated, life is normalizing
fast. Live theater and sporting events are back on, mask
wearing is no longer required outdoors, restaurants and
bars are packed, and students are attending classes in
person. In the U.K., some pubs are allowed to open and
people can go on foreign holidays to some destinations
on the “green list,” while in the U.S., domestic travel
bookings are surging and vaccinated people don’t need
to wear masks anymore.
Waning Waves
Covid cases have declined in vaccine front-runners
Israel U.K. U.A.E. U.S.
800 cases per 100,000 people
800
600
400
200
Mar Jul Oct Jan Apr
2020 2021
Source: Johns Hopkins University
Note: Figures based on rolling seven-day total
While these freedoms are similar to those enjoyed in
places like New Zealand and Australia, which have
eliminated Covid internally, high vaccination rates give
the U.S. and others a road map to reopening to the
world.
Still, variants have the potential to complicate those
plans, amid uncertainty over whether the current crop
of vaccines are as effective against all strains. U.K. Prime
Minister Boris Johnson urged Britons to take this next
step “with a heavy dose of caution” as the variant first
detected in India spreads.
Check out Bloomberg’s Vaccine Tracker
Economies that moved early on vaccines have the
advantage of being mostly—and in Israel’s case, entirely—
inoculated with mRNA shots, which appear to not just
prevent a person from developing Covid, but from
contracting and transmitting it as well. While the
evidence is still early, more traditional vaccines don’t
appear to have this ability to the same degree, though
they’re proving effective in stopping people from getting
sick and dying from the virus.
Some Vaccines Help Nations Exit Pandemic Faster Than
Others
The Poverty Trap
While the failure of powerful, developed economies to
curb the spread of the coronavirus has been a stunning
development of the pandemic, major western nations
like the U.S. and U.K. have since gained back ground in
sewing up vaccine supply and distributing shots.
Meanwhile, most of the developing world is yet to even
start inoculating in a significant way, lacking the
purchasing power to sign supply deals that put them at
the front of the queue. Places with the highest average
incomes are getting vaccinated about 25 times faster
than those with the lowest, according to Bloomberg’s
vaccine tracker.
The divide between rich and poor has become
increasingly apparent in the Covid Resilience Ranking
since Bloomberg started keeping track in November.
Handling the Covid Era
A divide between the rich and poor has become increasingly
apparent on Bloomberg's Covid Resilience Ranking
43 51 59 67 75
Note: A higher Covid Resilience Score indicates a better outcome
Covax, the World Health Organization-backed effort to
help poorer countries procure doses, only started
distributing shots at the end of February and is facing a
shortfall given its biggest supplier, India’s Serum
Institute, is now only producing for local needs.
The growing crisis in the developing world is putting
pressure on advanced economies to do more to help.
Images of Americans in joyful social reunions are
juxtaposed with crowds in India jostling for any vaccine
dose while oxygen supplies dwindle in hospitals.
President Joe Biden said the U.S. will export 80 million
shots to countries in need now that its own demand has
largely been met, but the supply needed by developing
countries numbers billions of doses. China is filling some
of that gap, rolling out hundreds of millions of its
homegrown vaccines via mostly bilateral deals with
places like Brazil, Indonesia and Chile.
A health worker collects a nasal swab sample at a temporary
Covid-19 testing center in Malaysia, on May 20.
Photographer: Samsul Said/Bloomberg
Disparities in immunity pose a threat to the world: the
more the coronavirus spreads unchecked, the more
opportunity there is for dangerous new mutations to
develop. Some existing vaccines have already been
shown to be less effective against new variants like the
one first detected in South Africa, and the chance of a
mutation entering a vaccinated place and igniting a new
wave
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