DEBRE MARKOS UNIVERSITY

COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

DETERMINANT OF RURAL–URBAN MIGRATION

FROM RURAL COMMUNITY OF GOZAMEN WOREDA TO DEBRE

MARKOS TOWN IN EAST GOJJAM ZONE

A SENIOR ESSAY RESEARCH PROPOSAL SUBMITTED FOR PARTIAL

FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT OF THE BA DEGREE IN ECONOMICS

BY:
1. DEMELASH ZEWDU ……………............ID NO:1305988
2.GEBEYAW TEWABE……………………..ID NO:1306074
3.KEHULUM YIBELTAL……………………….ID NO:1305750
4.TESFAYE CHERIE…………………………….ID NO:1308556

ADVISOR;ERIMIAS A.

JUNE, 2024

DEBRE MARKOS: ETHIOPIA

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ABSTRACT
In some developing countries such as Ethiopia the phenomenon of rural-urban
migration which is mainly triggered by rural “push” factors than urban “pull” factors
are the main cause of unbalanced rate of population growth and distribution between
urban and rural areas. This situation in turns affects the healthy development of both
urban and rural areas. In spite of this fact, not much is known on many of the aspects of
rural-urban migration. The present study of migration to Debre Markos town is mainly
concerned with a determinant of decision of rural-urban migration in order to find out
the problems, a sample of 100 migrants will be taken based on simple random sampling
technique. The study will use both Primary and secondary data. The primary data will
be collected from respondents through structured questionnaires whereas secondary
data will be obtained from published and unpublished materials and reports from
different offices as well as internet. Data will be analyzed using both descriptive, such as
percentage, table, graph etc. and econometric model particularly probit regression
model will be applied to analyzed factors that affect decision of rural-urban migration
in the study area.G

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Table of Contents

Abstract……………………………………………………………………………………….i
Table of Contents.....................................................................................................................ii

ACRONMY..............................................................................................................................iii

CHAPTER ONE.......................................................................................................................1

INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................................1

1.1Background of the Study....................................................................................................1

1.2 Statement of the Problem..............................................................................................4

1.3 Research Questions........................................................................................................6

1.4 Objectives of the Study..................................................................................................6

1.4.1 General Objective of the Study..................................................................................6

1.5 Scope of the Study..........................................................................................................6

1.6 Significance of the Study................................................................................................7

1.7 Limitation of the Study..................................................................................................7

CHAPTER TWO.....................................................................................................................8

LITERATURE REVIEW........................................................................................................8

2.1 Theoretical Literature....................................................................................................8

2.1.1 Definition and Concepts of Migration.......................................................................8

2.1.2 Model of rural to urban migration.............................................................................9

2.1.3 The Received Theory of Rural-Urban Migration....................................................11

2.2 Empirical Literature Review.......................................................................................13

CHAPTER THREE...............................................................................................................15

RESEARCH METHODOLOGIES......................................................................................15

3.1 Description of the study area………………………………………………………………………………………….…………15

3.2 Types and sources of data............................................................................................16

3.3 Sampling Technique and Sample Size........................................................................16

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 3.4 Method of Data Analysis..............................................................................................17

3.5 Model Specification......................................................................................................17

CHAPTER FOUR..................................................................................................................21

4. BUDGETING.....................................................................................................................21

4.1. Time budget.................................................................................................................21

4.2. Budget...............................................................................................................................22

REFERANCE.........................................................................................................................23

ACRONMY
UN:United Nation

LDC: Least Developed Countries

FGD:Focus Group Discution

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 CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the Study

Migration is the movement of people form one place to another. Their residence in their new
area can be permanent or temporal. There are two types of migration. The first one is
international migration. This one involves movements of people from one country to another.
The second type of migration is internal migration. Internal migration is a type of migration
in which people change their residence within the country. In this type of migration migrants
do not cross international boundaries between different countries. Internal migration can take
place within a country in different forms as; rural to urban, urban to rural, urban to urban and
rural to rural movements (Lerch, 2023)

In history, rural-urban migration has been connected with industrialization, urbanization and
economic growth. Migration of people from rural to urban areas has various socio-economic,
political, demographic, ecological and environmental implications. Earlier development
economists, such as, (GEBRE, 2020) regarded it an important factor in the economic
development of developing countries. Rural-urban migration is considered as a balancing
factor in the dualistic developing economy as it helps in transferring manpower from low
income activities of rural sector to higher ones of urban sector and thus, narrows down the
rural-urban gap. Rural-urban migration eases intersect oral factor mobility and plays a vital
role for structural changes. Moreover, migration has also been a important livelihood and
survival strategy for many poor groups across the Less developed countries, mostly in Africa.
In Africa, migration has been considered as a way of life where the people migrate from one
place to another place due to political, socio-economic and demographic reasons. Migration
from rural areas accounted for at least half of all urban population growth in Africa during the
1960s and 1970s and about 25% of urban growth in the 1980s and 1990 (OLALEYE, 2023).
Ethiopia is one of the countries in Africa with the country of a relatively high level of internal
migration and population redistribution .This was associated with the country’s economic
transition from a socialist to a market oriented economy; critical political changes since the
1970s though 1990s; civil war; and famine.Migration with in Ethiopia borders had been
common as well, mainly in the form of rural-urban migration flows. Present migration

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patterns in Ethiopia are driven by the similar factors that led to historic migration flows. The
Determinant of rural-urban migration with respect to either aggravating or relaxing the
incidence and intensity of house hold poverty remained a core research area. Ethiopia is one
of the countries in sub-Sahara African experiencing high level of population pressure,
population redistributions and out migrats.

Internal migration or labor mobility in Ethiopia remains limited. In the five years prior to
the 2013 Labor Force Survey (the last survey with systematic migration data), six percent of
Ethiopians changed zone of residence. Though the scale of internal migration has not
increased between 1999 and 2013, its pattern has changed, with rural-urban migration
becoming the dominant migration flow between 2008 and 2013. While as a share of their
population, smaller cities and towns attracted most rural migrants, in absolute terms Addis
has been the main destination, with close to 40 percent of all rural migrants moving to the
capital. Next to urban areas, the Regions of Gambella, Afar, and Benishangul-Gumuz also
experienced net population inflows, likely related to the availability of large swathes of land
for commercial agriculture.

Oromia and Amhara Regions are the main origin Regions of internal migrants in
Ethiopia. On the zonal level, North Gondar zone (Amhara Region) and Arsi (Oromia) are the
main origin areas of internal migration in Ethiopia (Figure 4). Other important origin areas
are East and West Gojam, South Wollo, South Gondar, North Shoa, and the Addis Ababa city
administration. Taken together, these origin zones (and Addis) accounted for over one-third of
all internal migrants in 2013.

With the exception of Addis, inter-regional migration is rare. Almost all FGD participants
came from a rural area within the same region (Annex Table 3). For instance, of the 46 FGD
participants in urban Tigray, 45 came from a rural area in Tigray while one came from
Amhara Regional State. Migrants with an origin in SNNPR appear to be the most mobile,
with substantial numbers going to an urban area in Oromia and Addis Ababa (though most
still stay within the SNNPR state boundary).

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Annex Table 3: Origin region of participants by current region
Origin region

Current region Tigray Amhara Oromia SNNP Others N

Tigray 45 1 0 0 0 46

Amhara 0 48 0 0 0 48

Oromia 1 8 23 10 6 48

SNNP 0 2 1 37 0 40

Addis Ababa 0 4 5 13 0 22

N 46 63 29 60 6 204

These situations made the researchers to deal with the determinant factors for the people to
move from their origin or rural areas and attractive reasons that make them from rural
community of Gozamen woreda to Debre markos town, since it is one of the urban town in
Amhara regional state of the nation.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Migration of people from rural to urban areas has various socio-economic, political,
demographic, ecological and environmental implications. It might have harmful effects on
the socio-economic activities. Many migrants create difficulty on the administration of the
town to provide housing, job and other essential services, thus it will reduce effectiveness of
the administration of the urban town. In addition, rural migrant themselves face difficulties in
making social adjustment necessary for their life in urban areas.

The primary problem that is seen in rural community from Gozamen woreda to Debre
Markos town as a result of rural to urban migration is unemployment. This is caused by the
inability of the town to satisfy the demand of the migrants. Many migrants flow to this town
in searching for a better job opportunity. But, the supplies of job in the town come short of
satisfying the existing job demand. This will end in the problem of unemployment. Finally,
since unemployment is one of the major problems or obstacles of economic growth, excess
migration to urban areas will negatively affect the economy of the area.

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Even though there were related studies conducted particularly on determinants of decision
rural-urban migration. Fore example, The Rural-urban migration is ongoing to occur at high
points as people seek new opportunities in the city to escape rural poverty. Ethiopians urban
centers have high unemployment rates. The fast rate of urbanization is primarily caused by
poor rural living situations and persistent famine forcing rural populations to migrate to
towns in search of alternative livelihoods (Vaan DijkandFranses, 2008.p.3)

Susan E. Green! Researcher's a prominent scholar in the field of migration studies.

Here are some key aspects of Susan E. Green's research and contributions:

• Focus on the Political Economy of Migration: Her work is rooted in the understanding that
migration is not just a demographic phenomenon but is intricately tied to economic and
political structures. She examines how migration shapes political dynamics in cities and
countries, exploring the interplay between migration, economic development, and political
power.

• Impact of Migration on Urban Politics: She analyzes how migration patterns influence the
political landscape of cities, including the formation of new social movements, the emergence
of political parties that cater to migrant communities, and the ways in which migration affects
voting patterns and electoral outcomes.

F. Hollifield (USA): Migration policy and its impact on migration flows, including the role
of states in regulating and controlling migration.

Key Works: "Immigration and the Politics of Citizenship in Europe and the United States"
(2007), "The Migration Nexus: How Policy and People Shape the Global Migration System"
(2013).

Key Contributions: Examines the different approaches that governments take to manage
migration, the impact of these policies on migration patterns, and the challenges of regulating
migration in a globalized world.

The number of empirical studies (like Vaan DijkandFranses, Susan E. Green, James F.
Hollifield (USA)) on migration but, they do not studies the determinant of rural urban
migration and also the proplems of rural urban migration on the urban center, Our research
will try to fill the research gap to identify or to investigate the determinants of decisions of

4
rural to urban migration in case from rural community of Gozamen woreda to Debre markos
town.

1.3 Research Questions

The research will be able to answer the following questions: -

 What are determinants of migrants’ decisions of rural urban migration?

 What problems does rural-urban migration cause in Debre Markos town?

1.4 Objectives of the Study

1.4.1 General Objective of the Study
The general objective of the study is to investigate the determinants of decisions of rural to
urban migration from rural community of gozamen woreda to debre markos town.

1.4.2 Specific Objectives of the Study

 To identify factors that affect rural migrants’ decisions to migrate to Debre

Markos town,
 To analyze problems caused by rural-urban migration in rural community
Gozamen Woreda,

1.5 Scope of the Study

The objective this study will be investigate the key factors that drive individuals to migrate
from Gozamen Woreda to Debre Markos Town. Also, Examining the impact on housing,
infrastructure, employment, social services, and the overall quality of life in the urban center
due to the influx of migrants.

Migration as it is known is everywhere. However, to the vast areas it needs enough time and
money and detailed data about perception and attitude of the society to reach to concrete
conclusion. So the research is bounded to be conducted in rural community of Gozamen
woreda and respondents are taken from different kebeles within Debre Markos town.

1.6 Significance of the Study

The paper may have valuable information on the general outlook of migration, particularly
rural to urban migration in rural community from Gozamen woreda to Debre Markos Town.

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In addition, the paper might give certain information about the problem of migration. Due to
absence of significant effort to enhance the economic activity in rural area, there may be
many developmental problems and rapid movement of population to urban areas,
infrastructural problems, and economic constraints and so on. This paper will be mainly
helpful in identifying determinants of decisions for rural-urban migration. It is also
significant in defining problems caused by this type of migration. Additionally, the research
will have different importance in the future. Firstly, the researcher will acquire significant
experience in conducting research for the next time. Secondly it will help other researchers
who want to conduct their researches on similar topic, as a reference. Finally,it helps the
society to create awareness about the determinants and problems(challenges) of rural urban
migration.

1.7 Limitation of the Study

The general objective of this study the determinant of rural urban migration from Gozamen
woreda to Debre Markos Town.but this research will not consider the determinant of rural to
rural,urban to rural and urban to urban migration. In addition to this research do not include
the impact of rural urban migration on rural area like to reduce labor supply how to affect
agricultural productivity and research study only in Gozamen woreda.

1.8 Organization of the Study

This research paper has four chapters. The first chapter is introduction part. It consist
Background of the study, statement of the problem, objective of the study, research question,
scope and significance of the study. The second chapter is literature review in which
theoretical and empirical literatures are seen. The third chapter is research methodology and
model specification part. In the fourth chapter budget

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 CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Theoretical Literature

The movement of people from one place to another is termed as migration and it is a complex
problem having many dimensions. Although migration is a multidimensional problem and its
causes are varied, it has been a subject of study to administrators, scholars and researchers all
over the world. Several attempts have been made through researchers to explain migration in
terms of various theories

2.1.1 Definition and Concepts of Migration

To understand the movement of people occurring within the country, it is important to will be
study the migration pattern initially. (Morrison, 2023) Argued that the migration of rural to
urban occurs due to diversification. The migrants get opportunities to migrate due to
correlation of income between their origin and destination as measure of diversification.

Economic and non-economic researches agree that economic factors are important predictors
of rural-urban migration and particularly that high urban wages are the main pulling factor
(Dokubo E. M., 2023).Although various theoretical approaches will have been developed in
the treatment of rural to urban migration, again one of among such approaches is economic
theory of migration. The economic theory of migration sees migration as an important form of
resource distribution of labor and that decision to migrate is reached primarily based on
private rational economic calculation by individual migrants after weighting the gain and
losses at both places of origin and destination (Bocquého, 2023)

The economic development of Western Europe and the United States was closely associated
with the movement of labor from rural to urban areas. For the most part, with a rural sector
dominated by agricultural activities and an urban sector focusing on industrialization, overall
economic development in these countries was characterized by the gradual reallocation of
labor out of agriculture and into industry through rural-urban migration, both internal and
international. Urbanization and industrialization were in essence synonymous.

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This historical model served as a blueprint for structural change in developing countries, as
evidenced, for example, by the original Lewis theory of labor transfer. But the overwhelming
evidence of the past several decades, when developing nations witnessed a massive migration
of their rural populations into urban areas despite rising levels of urban unemployment and
underemployment, lessens the validity of the Lewis two-sector model of development. An
explanation of the phenomenon, as well as policies to address the resulting problems, must be
sought elsewhere. One theory to explain the apparently paradoxical relationship of accelerated
rural-urban migration in the context of rising urban unemployment has come to be known as
the Todaro migration model and in its equilibrium form as the Harris-Todaro model.

Todaro migration model: - a theory that explains rural-urban migration as an economically

rational process despite high urban unemployment. Migrants calculate (present value of) urban
expected income (or its equivalent) and move if this exceeds average rural income.
Harris-Todaro model: -an equilibrium version of the Todaro migration model that predicts
that expected incomes will be equated across rural and urban sectors when taking into account
informal sector activities and outright unemployment.

2.1.2 Model of rural to urban migration

To provide a theoretical argument for rural to urban migration three models of rural to urban
migration will be presented. These are:

• Migration and dual sector model of economic development

• The family/household migration model

• The Todaro migration model

These models give alternative insight for the reason why migration takes place. The Lewis
dual sector model basically state that there are two sectors, Agriculture and industry. There is
excess labor in rural agricultural sector; therefore, people migrate to industrial sector to obtain
employment. Secondly, the family/household migration model states that migration is rarely
an individual decision, and immediate and extended family plan plays an important role when
making the decision to migration. Finally, Todaro model of migration states that migration is
mostly an economic decision, which decision find rational even with the existence of urban
unemployment (Batista, 2023)

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  Migration and the dual sector model
The Lewis dual sector model has two main sectors such as agricultural/rural sector and
industrial/urban sector which has a high demand for labor and offer wage that are higher than
the rural areas. Lewis assumed the agricultural sector to be purely subsistence characterized
by surplus labor, low productivity, low income and considerable under employment same
portion rural labor force where assumed to be surplus in nature, contributing nothing to
output. Industrial sector, assumed to be technologically advanced with high level of
investment in urban environment (Zhang W. &., 2020)

Many workers from the rural sector are attracted by offering slightly higher wage in the
industrial sector. Wage here only has to be slightly higher than the average agricultural
productivity in order to attract the surplus labor to the cities. At this wage in industrial sector,
the supply of labor is said to be elastic, since as long as there is surplus labor in sector in no
upward pressure on the wage in industrial sector (IBID).

 Family/household migration
Household migration can be divided into two categories such as split and family migration.
Split migration occurred when the head of the household moves from rural to urban, then the
rest of his/her family follows at a later date. Family migrations occur when the entire family
moves together at the same time to urban areas. The reason for split migration may be that the
family would want to take on less cost, if household goes to urban sector himself. Initially he
doesn’t have to worry about his family’s survival while he is in searching of employment. The
family can stay in rural sector and continue doing their miscellaneous task to provide
subsistence for themselves, until the household find employment and able to pay for his family
to pay him in the city (Bruhn, 2023)

 Todaro migration model

The main idea of the Todaro model is that migration is mostly an economic decision, which an
individual find rational even with the existence of urban employment. The Todaro model
states that urban rural difference in expected income rather than the actual earning leads to
migration. Individual look at the employment opportunities that are available to them in rural
and urban sector, and choose the one that give them gain from migration (Lagakos, 2023)

According to Todaro, the theory assumed that members of the labor force, both actual and
potential compared their expected incomes for a given time period in the urban sector (the
different between returns and cost of migration) with prevailing average rural income and

9
migrate if the former exceeded the later. But the reality of the situation in that in many
developing countries there is a chronic unemployment problem, so migrants cannot find high
paying urban employment as soon as they enter to the city. What would probably be
happening is that many unskilled and unemployed migrants up on arrival in the city would
either be unemployed or find employment in the urban informal sector. On the other hand,
migrant with marketable skill and secondary or tertiary education will have a better change of
securing a high paying urban job, many will find jobs in the formal sector quickly faced with
the high rate of unemployment in urban areas and the probability of the underemployment and
being unemployed for an extended period the migrant must consider the risks and weight them
against positive urban real income difference (ibid).

Todaro goes on to say that just because a typical migrant who obtain a job in the urban formal
sector expected to earn twice the amount he would than of he stayed in rural sector, doesn’t
mean much if the actual probability of getting a higher paying job is one chance in five in one-
year time period, (ibid).

2.1.3 The Received Theory of Rural-Urban Migration

The received theory of rural-urban migration (its Harris-Todaro version is best known), treats
rural-urban migration primarily as an economic phenomenon. In essence, the theory
postulates that workers compare the expected incomes in the urban sector with agricultural
wage rates and migrate if the former exceeds the latter. Rural-urban migration is thus the
equilibrating force which equates rural and urban expected incomes and as such is a
disequilibrium phenomenon (Todaro & Smith_11th_edition).

The three basic characteristics of their model that migration occurs largely for economic
reasons, migration decision depends on expected rather than nominal wage differentials, and
that migration takes place in disequilibrium- Suggest that rural-urban migration be given a
new emphasis. Rather than considering it as a key phenomenon in its own right, migration
could better be regarded as the adjustment mechanism by (Caria, 2024).Literatures on this
area of study show that rural-urban migration causes great harm on urban areas, if it doesn’t
control well. Population growth and accelerated rural-urban migration are chiefly
responsible for the explosion in urban shantytowns (Todaro & Smith_11th_edition).

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2.1.4 Possible Solutions to Improve Serious Problems of Rural-Urban Migration and
Situations in Less Developed Countries (LDC)
A. Creating an appropriate rural-urban economic balance:
More appropriate balance between rural and urban economic opportunities appears to be
indispensable to reduce both rural and urban unemployment problems and to slow rural to
urban migration. The trust of this activity should integrate development of rural sector, the
spread of small scale industries throughout the country side and the reorientation of the
economic activity and social investment toward the rural area.

B. Expansion of small scale, labor intensive industries:

The composition of the output has obvious effect on the magnitude of urban employment
opportunities because some product requires more labor per unit of output than other.
Expansion of these mostly small scale and labor intensive industries in the rural and urban
areas can be accomplished in to two ways: directly through government investment and
indirectly through income redistribution to the rural poor.

C. Eliminating of factor price distribution:

There is simple evidence to demonstrate that correcting factor price distortion primary by
eliminating various capital subsides and curtaining the growth of urban wage through market
based pricing would increase employment opportunities and make better use of scare capital
resource.

D. Choosing the appropriate labor intensive technology of production:

One of the principal factors in habiting the success of any Long run program of employment
creation, both in urban industries and rural infrastructure is the most complete technological
dependence in developing nation on imported machinery and equipment from the developed
countries.

E. Reducing population growth:

It can be done through reduction of absolute poverty and inequality, particularly for women
along with the expanded provision of family planning and rural health services (Kingsley,
2023)

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2.2 Empirical Literature Review
Many developing countries in the world are currently experiencing an unprecedented rate of
urbanization. It is also clear that, unlike the experience of currently developed countries, the
process of urbanization presently taking place in developing countries is not in consonance
with rapid industrialization. it is the consequence of growing population pressure on land
in the rural areas (Kasahun, 2000). In line with this, (Wang, 2023) reported Rather, that the
major sources of the growth of urban population in developing countries will not only be
natural population increase but also the continuing migration of rural people to the urban
centers (Fassil Eshetu* and Mohammed Beshir, 2017.)

Rural to urban migration is the most important movement that contributes to urbanization. The
relative importance of rural-urban migration and urban-urban migration in the urban
concentration vary from region to region and from country to country. In Latin America,
people which move directly from rural areas to urban centers represents a small fraction of
that of total migration (Sam-Amobi, 2024)

The past few decades have witnessed a rapid place of urban population concentration in
developing countries of Africa. For example, in Ghana, the urban population in the 1960 was
23% of total population. The concern have been emanated from that the bulk urban population
is constructed by migration from the rural area in the country side. The loss of rural population
to urban center is often be moaned for its implied adverse effect on rural development. The
consequence of rural-urban migration have been noted with demand for urban socio economic
amenities exceeding its supply, the urban area problem such as overcrowding, congestion,
inadequate housing and, high rate of urban unemployment (Kitila, 2023)

Rural-urban migration is associated with a range of issues linked to rural poverty and lack of
opportunity. However, Ethiopia has relatively low levels of migration, a high economic
growth rate, small urban population and fast growing population. All the conditions indicate
that rural-urban migration is inevitable and increasing (Xu, 2020)

During the last decades, Ethiopian economy went through deep economic crisis, which had
adverse impact on the urban employment opportunities and living standard of the urban
people. The high urban unemployment is manifestation of an ineffective utilization of the
available man power, slow economic growth and poor education system. Currently there is
high and over growing demand for urban employment opportunities in the country than its
supply (Kebede, 2023)

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There are several reasons for population mobility from place to place. Reasons for migration
to urban centers in particular are more complex. However, the causes of migration are usually
identified as two broad categories, namely “pushing” and “pulling” factors. For example,
people of a certain area may be pushed off by poverty and other natural factor to move
towards towns for employment. On the other hand, better employment opportunities or the
need for better facilities in urban areas may also pull people to different urban areas. In
addition, the decision to migrate from one place to another may also be influenced by non-
economic factors such as the need to join relatives, the need to be free from cultural and
family restriction and obligation and so on. In general, however, as to the causes of migration
scholars conclude that migration is a response by humans to a series of economic and non-
economic factors (Wondu Teshome, 2017).

A research conducted on rural-urban migration and poverty in Ethiopia says that, although
many of the respondents had migrated to escape rural poverty, both domestic and construction
workers reported that they were still poor and lived in poor conditions once they had migrated.
Construction workers highlighted the challenge of finding secure accommodation due to the
high rent costs in safe neighborhoods and the high safety risks of living in low cost
neighborhoods. Both construction and domestic workers cited their inability to afford food and
clothing and difficulty securing a job. Migrant construction workers in particular found it
difficult to find

Employment as jobs were scarce and dependent on the season and area. As such, the
respondents indicated that their economic situation had not changed for the better after
migration (Grabska, 2022)

2.3 Conceptual Framework

Migration can be considered as a significant feature of livelihoods in developing countries to

pursuit better living standards. Central to the understanding of rural- urban migration flow is
the traditional push-pull factors. “Push factor” refers to circumstances at home that repel;
examples include famine, drought, low agricultural productivity, unemployment etc. while
“pull factor refers to those conditions found elsewhere (abroad) that attract migrants. There are
many factors that cause voluntary rural-urban migration, such as urban job opportunities,
housing conditions, better income opportunities etc. There is no doubt that, apart from these
factors, urban areas also offer a chance to enjoy a better lifestyle.

13
The provision of services such as electricity, piped water supply and public services make
urban areas attractive. While the motives for rural movement are important in themselves, the
means of movement are also of important. Improvements in transport systems and
increasingly awareness of the urban areas through media, helped by improved educational
standards are equally important factors to be taken into account when dealing with rural to
urban migration.

Rural inhabitants see and hear success stories about people that leave their community and
move to cities, which also act as incentives for out-migration. Incentives for out migration
may be distorted, thereby creating excessive urbanization. Therefore, rather than targeting the
migration itself, it is preferable to focus on the causative factors and its consequences.
Historically, pull factors have predominated- urban environment provides better employment
and income opportunities. But recently, it seems that push factors seem to be increasingly
powerful.Increased number of people because of rural urban migration certainly puts pressure
on available and stagnant public utilities. Health services and education have been particularly
burdened with a huge demand, causing overcrowded classrooms in urban areas. The most
visible impact of growing urban population is probably the rise in squatter settlements in main
urban centers. There are cases of unsafe and overcrowded shanty towns where exposure to
pollution and diseases high at risk.

CHAPTER THREE

RESEARCH METHODOLOGIES

3.1 Description of the study area

Gozamen is one of the 18 districts in East Gojjam zone of Amhara National Regional State. It
is found in the North western highlands of Ethiopia at a geographical location of 10°1′ 46″
and 10° 35′ 12″ N latitudes and 37° 23′ 45″ and 37° 55′ 52″ E longitudes and at a distance of
305 and 251 km from Addis Ababa and Bahir Dar, respectively (Figure 1). Gozamen Woreda
is the capital of the district and it contains 25 rural-kebeles. The district was surrounded by

14
Aneded and Debay Tilatgin in the East, Machakel and Debre Elias in West, Sinan district in
North, Baso Liben district and Abay River in the South .
according to Ethiopian statistics service(web) in 2022, this woreda has a total population of
162,070, of whom 81,129 are women and 80,941 are men ,the majority of the inhabitants
practiced Ethiopian orthodox Christianity, with 95.3% reporting that as thier religion,while
4.66% of the population said they will muslim.

In Gozamen woreda, agriculture is the base of the economy.it is practiced by more than 85%
of the population residing in the rural areas.

The district has an altitudinal difference of 1200-3510 meter above sea level. Based on these
altitudinal differences, the district has three agro-climatic zones namely, Dega, Woina-dega
and Kola meter above sea level . The average annual rainfall of the district was 1628 mm
with the rainy season extended up to 6 months. However, the heavy rainfall is concentrated in
the Meher season of June to September. The maximum and minimum average temperatures
are 25°C and 11°C, respectively .

Figure 1: Geographical location of Gozamen Woreda

3.2 Types and sources of data

The researchers will be use only primary data. Primary data will be collected directly from
respondents using structured questionnaires. in order to collect primary data the researchers

15
will be use survey questionnaire the specific aspects on which data collection will be include
which type of job opportunity, wage difference in rural urban area ,the problem faces
immigrants in urban area etc…

3.3 Sampling Technique and Sample Size

The researcher will use random sample technique,because it avoids the possibility of making
personal bias. In the first stage the study area will purposely selecte based on extent of rural
urban migration .in the second stage five kebeles (wonka,libanos,yebo,denba and yebokla)
will be selected by simple random sample from 25 kebeles. finally sample respondants will
be selected from sample of five kebeles by using simple random sampling method. Because it
gives equal chance for all respondants and avoid biasedness

Sample size

To determine the sample size of the survey, the study has used the formula suggested by c.h
Kothari, 2004 .pp 179 . The method was applied to determine sample size of the survey from
total population. The total population of Gozamen woreda is about 162,070 (according to
Ethiopian statistics service(web) in 2022). From this total population, the Ethipian statistics
service(web) in 2022 identified about 19,983 people as migrants from rural areas of Gozamen
woreda to Debre Markos town .
c.h Kothari, 2004 .pp 179 provides a simplified formula to calculate sample sizes. The sample
size has been determined using the formula given by) c.h Kothari, 2004 .pp 179 in drawing an
adequate sample size from a given population at 90% confidence level, 0.1 degrees of
variability and 10% level of precision. The formula is given as: -

Source c.h Kothari, 2004 .pp 179

n=sample size
N=number of migrante total population
z=desired confidence level is 90% and value obtained from table
e=acceptable error
p=probability of success
q=probability of failure

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z=1.96,p=0.5,q=0.5,N=19,983,e=10%

n=(1.96)^2*0.5*0.5*19983/0.1^2(19983-1)+1.96^2*0.5*0.5
n=95.585~96
In order to ensure unbiasedness of the sample selected, technique of random sampling will be
applied on the total population of 19,983 (number of migrants in the town).

3.4 Method of Data Analysis

The researchers employed both descriptive method and econometric model to analyze the
collected data. The econometric model has used intensively to address the research question
for the study. This is because of the fact that descriptive method of analysis is inappropriate
and dubious to make causal study. Since the dependent variable is qualitative in nature and
takes dummy values, probit model is an appropriate method of analyzing this study.

3.5 Model Specification

There are many reasons for rural people to migrate to urban areas. These reasons are
determinants of rural migrants’ decision to migrate to urban areas. This study will try to
analyze determinants of migrants’ decision to migrate. Hence, the variable Yi varies from 0 to
1, with the value 1 indicating that the individual respondent decides to migrate and with the
value 0 not deciding to migrate. Finally, in order to understand factors that determine decision
of migration, the present study used the probit regression model where the dependent variable
is dichotomous.

The probit model is represented as: -

Prob(y 1| x) (x)

Where Φ indicates the cumulative standard normal probability distribution function, Prob (y =
1| x) is the probability of decision to migration, and the parameters β are typically estimated
by maximum likelihood estimation method.

The relationship between the dependent variable and independent variables can be shown
mathematically as follows;

M= β0 + β1AG+β2 SX + β3EDUC +β4WD + β5DSA + β6LS + β7REL + β8INFO + Ui

17
Where β0 is a constant term,

βis are parameters of the respective explanatory variables, and

Ui is a random term which includes all other factors that can affect the dependent variable.

Dependent variable (M): - is binary which takes 1 for deciding to migrate and 0 for not
deciding to migrate. If the migrant is forced to decide to migrate by the determinants given, it
takes value of 1 and 0 otherwise.

Independent variables: - There are many variables that can affect the dependent variable
(decision for migration) and they are called independent or explanatory variables. These are: -

Age

Sex

Education level

Urban rural wage differential

Distance from sending areas

Land size of migrant’s family

Relative at receiving areas

Access to information at sending areas

Description of the independent variables and their expected effects on the dependent
variable: -

Age: - it is a continuous variable. Age is expected to have a negative effect on decisions of

rural urban migration. Young people might be more sensitive to decide to migrate than elders.
To be young rural resident is expected to be a reason for being pulled to urban areas
Zelinsky(1971).

Sex: - gender difference is also one of the determinants of decision for migration. It is dummy
variable.1 for male and 0 for female. Being male is expected to affect the decision for
migration positively and being female negatively, because females are generally less mobile
than their male counterparts. Males might have been pulled by urban areas Massey(1999).

18
Education: - education is continuous variable measured by years of schooling. It is expected
to affect migration positively. Because, as it is known, in rural areas there is limited supply of
education. Thus, once they are engaged in education, rural residents which have some years of
schooling are expected to look for further education. So their little engagement in education
push them to search for further education in urban areas. Additionally, educated people in
rural areas are expected to migrate to urban areas for the sake of searching jobs in urban
centers, since there is lack of employment in rural areas for such educated people. Then we
expect its (education) positive impact on rural urban migration John Weeks(1990s to present).

Urban rural wage differential: - according to Harris Todaro migration model the difference
between urban and rural wages is one of the major reasons for people to migrate to urban
areas. Higher wage in urban areas pull rural residents for better payment in urban areas. Also
in this study it is expected to have a positive relationship with decisions of rural urban
migration. If people assumes higher wage in urban areas than their rural wage, they will
decide to migrate to urban areas in order to take advantage of this wage differential
Todaro(1970).

Distance from sending area: - It is continuous variable measured by kilometers. People from
areas near to the urban centers are expected to have more incentive to migrate to the towns.
People reside near the town are pulled more to this urban area. So, distance from sending areas
is expected to increases the cost of rural-urban migration and may reduce the wave migration.
Then, rural-urban migration might have been related negatively with distance of migrants’
original residence Zipf law(1949).

Land size of migrant’s family: - The land size of migrant’s family is also assumed to be one
of the determinants of decisions of migration. It is a continuous variable measured in hectare.
If it is large, then residents on the land will not decide to migrate, since it is sufficient to earn
living for its owners. But if rural families have small land size, the members of the family will
be pushed to urban area. Then negative relationship is expected between the size of land and
decisions to migrate Todaro(1970).

Relatives at receiving area: - Decisions of migrants to migrate to other areas are affected by
whether or not they have relatives at the receiving area. It is a dummy variable that takes value
of 0 and 1. 1 if the migrant have relatives in urban areas and 0 if not, having relatives at the
receiving area pull migrants to urban receiving areas. It is expected to affect decisions of
migration positively Stark and Blood(1985).

19
Access to information at sending areas: - migration is assumed to depend on migrant’s
access to appropriate information regarding their environment, since their decisions depends
on what their environment i.e. the receiving environment, look like. Then based on this
assumption it is expected to have positive relationship with decisions to migrate. It is binary
variable denoted by 1 if they have access to information and 0 if not Stark and Blood(1985).

Variables Variable Nature of Variable definition and Expected

code variable measurement effect
Dependent variable
Rural-urban migration M Binary (1= deciding to migrate, 0=
(decision to migrate) response otherwise)
variable
Independent variable
Age of respondents AG Continuous Age of migrants in year -
Sex of respondents SX Dummy 1= male, 0=female +
Educational status EDUC Continuous Years of schooling +
Urban rural wage WD Continuous The difference between urban +
differential wages and rural wages
Distance from sending DSA Continuous Distance of migrants’ original -
area place of residence from the
receiving urban area in
kilometers (km)
Land size of migrant’s LS Continuous Size of family farm land in -
family hectare
Relatives in receiving REL Dummy 1 if there are relatives of +
area migrants in receiving areas and 0
otherwise
Access to information at INFO Dummy 1= if they have access to +
sending area information, 0= no access to
information
Table 3. 1: variable descriptions and expected effects of independent variables

Thus, the functional form of the relationship between dependent and independent variables is
expressed as: -

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 M= f (AG, SX, EDUC, WD, DSA, LS, REL, AISA) ... (Equ 3.1)

Where M is the dependent variable and AG, SX, EDUC, WD, DSA, LS, REL & INFO are
independent variables representing age, sex, years of schooling, expected urban rural wage
differentials, distance of migrant’s original residence from the town, land size of migrant’s
family, relatives in receiving area and access to information in sending area respectively.

Since the dependent variable is binary response variable, the appropriate econometric model
for the study will be probit model.

CHAPTER FOUR

4. BUDGETING

4.1. Time budget

Time budget is a written account of now by which the researchers spend their time to carry
out the research project.

No Activity May June(10) June June October NovemberDecember

(20- (14) (16)
22)

1 Title selection XX

2 Consulting advisor XX XX XX XX XX XX

3 Problem XX
identification

21
 4 Literature review XX

XX

5 Data collection
XX

6 Data analysis
XX

7 Presentation

4.2. Budget
Budget is inevitable for any project operation, the cost will include to conduct this research
and that will be planned by the researchers ourselves. The financed money will be allocated
based on the different requirement for each research activity. The following amount of money
is expected to incur and allocated to different research activity.

No Item Quantity Unit cost Total cost

1 For paper 2 pack 800 1600

2 Secretary 1 200 200

3 Binding 6 50 300

4 Printing 3 500 1500

5 Pen 10 30 300

6 Flash 2 500 1000

7 Transport 5 1000 5000

8 Unexpected cost 2000 2000

Total - - 11,900

22
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