• Question 1

0.5 out of 0.5 points

A negative correlation coefficient indicates a weaker relationship between
X and Y than a positive correlation coefficient.
• Question 2
0.5 out of 0.5 points
Forecasts are usually classified by time horizon into three categories

• Question 3
0.5 out of 0.5 points
Which of the following is not present in a time series?

• Question 4
1 out of 1 points
Choose the correct answer to fill the blank:
When choosing the best value for alpha based on the MSE in exponential smoothing, we
always select the .........lowest..... MSE value.

• Question 5
0.5 out of 0.5 points
The primary purpose of the mean absolute deviation (MAD) in forecasting
is to increase accuracy

• Question 6
1 out of 1 points
Judgmental Forecasting can be used alongside other mathematical forecasting models that
use historical data. true

• Question 7
0.5 out of 0.5 points
Adjusted exponential smoothing models are useful in situations where the
time series data shows an increasing or decreasing trend. true
• Question 8
0.5 out of 0.5 points
For the Delphi method to work effectively, the experts must be able to
exchange opinions face to face. false
• Question 9
0 out of 2 points
(This question takes approximately 5-10 minutes to solve)
The following data are given.

Month Sales Month Sales

January 2005 405 January 2006 514
February 547 February 464
March 584 March 522
April 580 April 557
May 548 May 593
June 573 June 577
 July 516 July 506
August 582 August 522
September 592 September 510
October 409 October 596
November 590 November 542
December 577 December 400
Using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.6 and 405 as the forecast value of January 2005,
the forecast for May 2005 is:

• Question 10
0.5 out of 0.5 points
Time series data may exhibit which of the following behaviors? Data pattern

• Question 11
0.5 out of 0.5 points
Using the data in the Table below , what is the MAPD?

Period Sales Forecast Error

1 250.1 255.1 -5.0

2 268.1 254.6 13.5

‫ والمجموع حقهم‬sales ‫ على‬error ‫تقسم‬
3 254.9 256.0 -1.1 )‫ (راجع صورة الواتساب‬5 ‫تقسمه على‬

4 261.3 255.9 5.4

5 245.3 256.3 -11.0

6 ? 255.3

• Question 12
0.5 out of 0.5 points
A six-month moving average forecast is better than a three-month moving average forecast if
demand

• Question 13
0.5 out of 0.5 points
The degree or strength of a linear relationship is shown by the
autocorollation

• Question 14
0.5 out of 0.5 points
The main benefit in calculating MAD is to compare the accuracy of several
different forecasts on one data set. true
• Question 15
0 out of 1 points
 The assumption that the past and the future are indistinguishable except for the specific
variables identified as affecting the likelihood of future outcomes is a correct assumption.
true

• Question 16
0.5 out of 0.5 points
Gradual, long-term movement in time series data is called trend

• Question 17
1 out of 1 points
What is the approximate forecast for May using a four-month moving average? 44

Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. April

39 36 40 42 48 46

• Question 18
0.5 out of 0.5 points
Quantitative forecasting methods are classified as

• Question 19
0 out of 0.5 points
Using the data in the Table below , what is the MAD up to period 3?

)mad ‫ ونقسمهم على عددهم (قانون‬error ‫ناخذ مجموع‬

Period Sales Forecast Error

1 245.8 250.8 -5.0

2 254.8 250.3 4.5

3 247.4 250.8 -3.4

4 247.0 250.5 -3.5

5 250.4 250.1
.3
6 ? 250.1

• Question 20
0 out of 1 points
The use of Judgmental Forecasting techniques is associated with an increase in cost. true

• Question 21
0.5 out of 0.5 points
Multiple regression relates demand to two or more independent variables.
• Question 22
0.5 out of 0.5 points
To start the exponential smoothing algorithm, we set the last smoothed value equal to the
first observation. False

• Question 23
 1 out of 1 points
Winter's method adjusts the seasonal estimate using the seasonal estimate of the previous:

• Question 24
0 out of 1 points
In exponential smoothing, if we set alpha = 0.1, the forecast for the next period will be nearest
in value to:

• Question 25
1 out of 1 points
In the autocorrelation figure shown below (Click here if the figure is not showing), the data most probably has:

• Question 26
0 out of 0.5 points
Forecasts used for new product planning, capital expenditures, facility location or expansion,
and R&D typically utilize a

• Question 27
0.5 out of 0.5 points
In time series, which of the following cannot be predicted?

• Question 28
0.5 out of 0.5 points
Which of the following statements about time series forecasting is true?
• Question 29
0 out of 0.5 points
Given two different sets of data and forecasting models, the one with a
MAD value of 3.15 is better than another with a MAD value of 515. true
• Question 30
0 out of 1 points
Which of the following is not a key feature of the Delphi procedure?

• Question 31
1 out of 1 points
A forecasting method has produced the following over the past five months. What is the mean
absolute deviation?

Actual Forecast Error |Error|

10 11 -1 1
8 10 -2 2
10 8 2 2
6 6 0 0
9 8 1 1

• Question 32
0 out of 1 points
In exponential smoothing, when we predict the forecast for the next period:

• Question 33
0.5 out of 0.5 points
Increasing the number of periods in a moving average will accomplish
greater smoothing, but at the expense of

• Question 34
1 out of 1 points
Using the data in the Table below. What is the seasonal factor for the first quarter of 2020?

Year Qrt. 1 Qrt. 2 Qrt. 3 Qrt. 4

2018 177 152 49 286

2019 208 151 98 255

2020 ? ? ? ?

• Question 35
0.5 out of 0.5 points
 The MAPD measurement of forecast error eliminates the problem of
interpreting the measure of accuracy relative to the magnitude of the
demand and forecast values. False (mad)
• Question 36
1 out of 1 points
Abdullah built two forecasting models to predict sales for next year. He takes a weighted
average of the forecasts generated by the two models as the forecast for sales of next year.
The technique Abdullah used is called:

• Question 37
0 out of 0.5 points
Which of the following is not a measurement of forecast error?

• Question 38
0.5 out of 0.5 points
Which of the following techniques uses variables such as price and
promotional expenditures, which are related to product demand, to predict
demand?

• Question 39
0.5 out of 0.5 points
Which of the following is not a type of qualitative forecasting?

• Question 40
1 out of 1 points
Holt's method adjusts the exponential smoothing for:

• Question 41
0.5 out of 0.5 points
Which time series model below assumes that demand in the next period will be equal to the
most recent period's demand? Exponential

• Question 42
0 out of 1 points
Judgmental Forecasting does not require the use of historical data in any of its techniques.
False

• Question 43
1 out of 1 points
In the Delphi method:

• Question 44
0.5 out of 0.5 points
The two general approaches to forecasting are

• Question 45
 0 out of 1 points
Judgmental Forecasting can be the only forecasting method you can use when historical data
is not available. true

• Question 46
0.5 out of 0.5 points
The Delphi method attempts to arrive at a consensus opinion from a group
of experts. false
Friday, November 13, 2020 11:03:30 AM AST