Resolved: My partner and I negate the resolution resolved: The United States should

substantially reduce its military support of Taiwan.

C1- suppression of people and democracy

C2- economic devastation

C1- suppression of people and democracy

The erosion of Taiwan's democracy would be detrimental.

Taiwan is a model of democracy in East Asia, losing its democratic autonomy would indicate

that democracies can’t withstand pressure from authoritarian powers. According to Lal ‘22, a

professor of international development, the US historically promoted democracy and exerts a

high level of influence in international affairs. Reducing military support of Taiwan would

become a symbolic gesture to China. According to Gordan '23, This action a symbolic gesture of the

reduction of military support would provoke a Chinese reaction and is warned against. As mentioned by

Heath ‘23, U.S. military deterrence is essential to Taiwan’s independence and is a reason why

China has yet to invade. So, reducing U.S. support gives China the green light to annex Taiwan.

All in all, Decreased US military support will diminish the democratic presence in Taiwan, thus

forcing an authoritarian Taiwan.

China is an authoritarian COUNTRY, China’s rule will hurt people and the economy.

According to the Maizland ‘22, The CCP has arrested people for speaking against and

not following CCP policy. During the annexation of Taiwan, rights like same-sex marriage and

even feminist opinions will be replaced by Chinese policies. According to Miazland ‘24, with the

CFR, Hong Kong was under the One Country, Two Systems agreement, in which for 50 years,

Hong Kong is allowed its autonomy. But, According to the DOS ‘21, after 20 years, the CCP

broke that promise and implemented harsh security bodies, violating Hong Kongers’ rights.

According to CSIS ‘21 China is determined to annex Taiwan. Taiwan is similar to Hong Kong, so
if the authoritarianism of China were to take over Taiwan, it would violate the very core of

democracy. This violation would include the encroachment of human rights, freedom of speech,

pluralism, justice, and more. The suppression of Taiwanese people would lead to social

unrest, affecting the economy. Barrett 21 - an economist in the I M F’s Research Department

wrote major unrest events are followed by a 1% reduction in GDP 18 months after the event.

Unrest will occur often, with differing policies between China and Taiwan. Continued U.S.

military support reduces the chance of an invasion, protecting both taiwan’s rights and its

economy.

C2- China will attempt to take over Taiwan, hurting the economy

Reducing the US military support in Taiwan will be detrimental to the stability of the

Taiwan Strait as china tries to take over. According to the U.S. DOD ‘23 China has increased

military coercion, through ballistic air missiles shot from China into Taiwan's self-declared air

defense zone with the intent of “‘the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,’ by 2049”.

According to Gordan 23, the Former Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence of the US, The

Great Rejuvenation is a decades-old promise President Xi made to take over Taiwan, whether

by peace or force. MD‘21 reported that the goal of 2049 is rapidly approaching and the motives

of China are apparent- the annexation of Taiwan. Lanoszka 18, an assistant Professor of

International Relations, writes that China sees Taiwan as part of its national identity and that

China would tolerate economic damage and war with the United States if Taiwan were to

formally declare its independence. Staats ‘24, the director of Asian Programs at the U.S.

Institute of Peace, reports that Taiwan’s president has repeatedly emphasized Taiwan's

intentions toward independence from China. According to Blackwill ‘21, from the CFR, the U.S.

should continue to deter war from China, as they are in prewar mode. With increased risks of

invasion, according to RAND Corp, Heath ‘23, Taiwan can’t resist the strength of China for long,
with military disparity compared to China. According to Garamone ‘23 a Reporter at the U.S.DD

the U.S. played a large role in Taiwan's Military support through deterrence. Cutting military

support to Taiwan will lead to an invasion.

Sub point - economic devastation

Lowy ‘24 says that the Taiwanese strait is essential to many countries for trade.

According to Cunningham ‘24, a Researcher at the Asian Studies Center, 88% of the largest

ships use the Taiwanese Strait for trade in 2022. Welch ‘24, a Geoeconomic [ANAlyst} reported

That if semiconductor firms stopped operating, global manufacturing would halt, causing a 10

trillion-dollar loss. Erickson ‘24, a professor of strategy at the U.S. Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute

and Nonresident Associate at Harvard University’s Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, wrote that Taiwan produces half

of all semiconductor chips made, worth 300 billion, importing over 160 billion globally. The U.S.

economy is reliant on these chips, according to semiconductors ‘20, chips have directly

contributed over $240 billion and over 270,000 employees to the American economy. According

to USTIC ‘23, a chip production disruption may lead to a 59% increase in the U.S. price of chips.

Showing that sustaining U.S. military support is vital to large U.S. companies and other

countries' economies. Reducing U.S. military support for Taiwan will lead to a Chinese

invasion, destabilizing the Taiwanese strait and semiconductor industry, and triggering

widespread economic decline.

For these reasons, my partner and I negate the resolution.

My partner and I negate the resolution resolved: The United States should substantially reduce

its military support of Taiwan.

C1: suppression of people and democracy. Lal ‘22 and says the U.S. is a leader of

democracy. CFR says that a sudden action from the U.S. will provoke a Chinese reaction.

Heath ‘23 says U.S. military support is essential to preventing invasion. Reduced support

signifies the weakness of democracy and allows China to invade. China’s rule will hurt

Taiwan's economy and people. Maizland ‘22, China is punishes defiants of CCP policy.

Miazland ‘24, DOS ‘21, explained the one country two systems and how China violated the

agreement and Hong Konger’s rights. CSIS says China is determined to annex Taiwan. Barrett

21 says that unrest events lead to a decrease in GDP. Continued U.S. military support reduces

the chance of an invasion, protecting both Taiwan’s rights and its economy.

C2- China will attempt to take over Taiwan, hurting the economy Gordan 23, Lanoszka 18,

and MD‘21 say that China’s goal of 2049 likely be executed through force. DOD says that

erosion is being used. Staats ‘24 says Taiwan prez. promises independence. Blackwill ‘21 and

Garamone ‘23 say U.S. should continue role of deterrence. Heath ‘23, Taiwan is militaryitly

weak. Cunningham ‘24 and Lowy ‘24 say taiwan strait is essential for international trade. Welch

‘24, semiconductors, Erickson ‘24 report a loss of billions if just chip loss, trillions when

considering the products it produces.

- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company had 76,478 employees as of December

31, 2023.

- According to USTIC. gov, a chip production disruption may lead to a 59% increase in the

U.S. price of chips.

- According to Intel, a fab (semiconductor factory) takes about three to four years, over $10 billion, and 7,000 construction workers to

complete. Gordon et al, 23 – Former Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence reports that despite the U.S. investing billions of

dollars into building Fabs, they still take decades to become self-efficient. proving inefficient for the U.S. economy, as with each week that

goes by, the effects of a lack of semiconductors will be catastrophic- the US can't survive without it, and the U.S will certainly feel lasting

effects on the economy, As

- The U.S. Needs a Secure Taiwan, Not Just Its Semiconductors Apr 3, 2024

Furthermore, Taiwan is a top ten U.S. trading partner, and its importance to the U.S. economy

and global supply chains extends [is] well beyond semiconductors. Taiwan plays a dominant

role in global manufacturing across industries, from tennis shoes to bicycles to laptops. Just as

U.S. semiconductor giants[,] such as Qualcomm and NVIDIA rely on Taiwanese foundries to

make their chips, global retailers and consumer brands have come to rely on Taiwanese

contract manufacturers to make—and often even design—their products at a price and quality

their competitors in other countries have never been able to match. Most of these products may

be assembled in China or Vietnam, but the firms that make them are often based in Taiwan.

- Taiwan link!
Hughes, Senior Research Analyst, Indian Ocean Research Programme, 4/4/19
(Lindsay, “China, the United States and the Taiwan Factor”,
http://www.futuredirections.org.au/publication/china-the-united-states-and-the-taiwan-
factor/)//GA

, Taiwan remains the last geographical region that Beijing claims it must “re-integrate” in order to
right some of the wrongs it has historically suffered. So important is that reintegration to the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) that it comes second only to the very survival of the Party itself. From the
political perspective, if the CCP is to claim a legitimate hold on power and, simultaneously, maintain the
legitimacy of its authoritarian rule, it must necessarily absorb a democratically-run region to
demonstrate that its authoritarian rule is superior to democracy. Taiwan also remains an
embarrassment to Beijing in that it is proof that the citizens of a democratically-run Chinese country,
which Beijing considers a breakaway province,
- How Hong Kong's Protests are Affecting Its Economy 08/22/19 Morrison 19 - Professor

of Global Strategy and Leadership

While the protests grind on, the short-term economic consequences for the people of Hong

Kong are beginning to mount. A drop in consumer spending on non-essential goods is one of

the most visible signs of its impact. Summer retail sales from July to August are expected to be

down by more than 10% from a year earlier. The protests that shut down Hong Kong

International Airport for about two days have also taken a toll. Aviation experts estimate that

Hong Kong suffered a US$76 million hit from flight cancellations. Since the airport contributes

around 5% to Hong Kong’s GDP, any disruptions are bound to reduce the special administrative

region’s economic growth for the year – which has already suffered due to the ongoing U.S.-

China trade war.

- Ivan Kanapathy, June 17, 2022- The Collapse of One China

For autocratic leaders such as Xi, perception is key to legitimacy. Without a credible pro-unification

touchstone on Taiwan, Xi will feel more aggrieved and may abandon Beijing’s stated policy of peaceful

unification, especially as he has argued that the Taiwan “problem” should not be passed down to future

generations. Xi knows he cannot ignore the trends in Taiwan indefinitely; top CCP officials have begun

signaling a possible Taiwan policy shift at the 2022 Party Congress, though details remain unclear.

Taiwan could face greater pressure from China to align with its authoritarian governance.

China might then embolden itself to employ certain political and economic tactics to influence

Taiwan’s internal affairs, undermining democratic structures and pushing leaders towards a
Beijing-biased compromise/reunification. Over time, the reduced military backing could make it

harder for Taiwan to maintain its independence and democratic system in the face of sustained

Chinese influence.

2) Taiwan under chinese control could undermine regional stability as neighboring

countries would question US reliability as an ally, potentially leading to increased

militarization or instability in Asia. 3) The democratic collapse of power(?) could weaken

global support for democracy and its associated values, contributing to a decline in global

political freedoms. (Could add further impacts of this)

Put in Hong kong example

https://dividedwefall.org/america-abroad-leader-of-the-free-world/

Example Extension outline:

“In the status Quo, without a Jobs guarantee, the economy will start to collapse, by

secular stagnation. This secular stagnation will eventually lead to Nuclear War. The

Jobs Guarantee will help keep America out of Secular Stagnation, by decreasing

unemployment to zero percent, and by speeding up the economy by getting more

people into the workforce, getting money moving in the economy, and bringing it up.

In America today, there is a labor shortage, causing some of the American

infrastructure to not be present, because there is nobody to build the infrastructure. If

the jobs to build the American infrastructure. This Infrastructure is key in the race to 0

emissions, because we can give the unemployed jobs focused on eliminating

emissions, like, for example, installing solar panels, or installing green windmills. The

US has international follow on to the EU which solves these impacts globally.”