Government of India
Earth System Science Organization
Ministry of Earth Sciences
India Meteorological Department
Press Release: Dated: 27th March, 2025
Subject: Current Weather Status and Extended range Forecast for the next
two weeks (27th March to 09nd April 2025)
1. Salient Observed Features for the week ending 26th March 2025:
❖ A major wet spell accompanied with moderate to severe thunderstorm
activities observed over east central India including Gangetic West Bengal,
Odisha, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh during 18-23 March, 2025 due to north-
south lower level wind convergence over the region. These thunderstorm
activities caused lightning and isolated hailstorm over these areas including
Odisha during most of the days.
❖ Thunderstorm with lightning recorded at isolated places over Gangetic West
Bengal from 20th to 24th March, Himachal Pradesh on 20th & 22nd March,
Uttarakhand from 20th to 23rd March, East Uttar Pradesh from 20th to 23rd March,
East Madhya Pradesh on 20th & 22nd March, Kerala & Mahe on 20th & 23rd to
26th March, Assam & Meghalaya from 21st to 25th March, Nagaland, Manipur,
Mizoram & Tripura on 21st, 24th & 25th March, Odisha from 21st to 25th March,
Bihar and Jharkhand from 21st to 24th March, Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh West
Rajasthan and Marathawada on 21st March, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal &
Sikkim from 22nd to 24th March, Vidarbha on 22nd March, Chhattisgarh on 22nd
& 24th March, West Uttar Pradesh on 23rd March, Telangana from 23rd to 25th
March, Rayalaseema on 23rd & 26th March, Tamilnadu Puducherry & Karaikal
from 23rd to 25th March, Lakshadweep on 23rd & 26th March, Arunachal Pradesh
on 24th & 25th March, North Interior Karnataka from 24th to 26th March, South
Interior Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka, Konkan & Goa and Madhya Maharashtra
on 26th March.
❖ Hailstorms reported at isolated locations over Jharkhand from 20th to 23rd
March, East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Gangetic West Bengal on 21st &
22nd March, Odisha from 21st to 23rd March, Assam & Meghalaya on 21st & 24th
March, Vidarbha on 22nd March, Telangana from 22nd to 25th March,
Uttarakhand, Rayalaseema and South Interior Karnataka on 23 rd March, Sub-
Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh on 24 th March, North
Interior Karnataka on 25th & 26th March.
❖ Squally/Gusty winds 40-60 recorded at isolated locations over Uttar Pradesh
on 23rd; Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha during 21st-23rd;
Himachal Pradesh on 17th, 20th & 21st; Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya
on 17th & 18th; during 21st-24th March.
❖ Heavy to very heavy rainfall was recorded at isolated places over Odisha on
22nd March. Heavy rainfall was observed at isolated places over East Madhya
Pradesh on 21st March, Tamil Nadu on 22nd & 25th March, Kerala on 22nd & 23rd
March, Odisha on 23rd March; Coastal Andhra Pradesh on 24th March.
❖ Two Western Disturbances (WDs; 20-25 & 23-26 March) moved across
northern parts of India during the week. First WD caused light to moderate
rainfall/snowfall over Jammu & Kashmir on 20th & 21st March, Himachal
Pradesh from 20th to 22nd March, Uttarakhand from 21st to 23rd March. Second
WD caused light to moderate rainfall/snowfall over Jammu & Kashmir and
Himachal Pradesh on 26th March.
❖ Weekly Average Minimum temperature was above normal by 1-3ºC over parts
of west, central and eastern India, and nearly normal over remaining parts of the
country during the first half of the week. It was above normal by 1-3ºC over parts
of north and west India, and nearly normal over remaining parts of the country
during the second half of the week. Weekly Average Maximum temperature
was below normal by 2-4ºC over east and northeast India and above normal by
1-3ºC over north and west India during first half of the week. It was above normal
by 1-3ºC over north, west, central, east and northeast India during the second
half of the week. The weekly averaged maximum temperature was nearly normal
over south peninsular India during this week.
❖ Temperature Scenario: The lowest minimum temperature of 10.8oC had been
recorded at Adampur (Punjab) on 21 March, 2025 and the highest maximum
temperature of 42.0oC had been recorded at
Akola (Vidarbha) on 26 March, 2025 over the plains of the country during the
week.
❖ Analysis of weekly overall rainfall distribution during the week-ending on
26th March and Pre-Monsoon Season’s Rainfall Scenario (01.03.2025 to
26.03.2025): The country as a whole, the weekly cumulative All India Rainfall (for
20th to 26th March 2025) in % departure from its long period average (LPA) is -32%.
All India Seasonal cumulative rainfall % departure during this year’s Pre-Monsoon
Season Rainfall (01st to 26th March 2025) is -24%. Details of the rainfall distribution
over the four broad geographical regions of India are given in Table 1, and
Meteorological sub-division-wise rainfall for week and season are given in Annexure
I & II, respectively.
Table 1: Rainfall status (Week and season)
Region Week Season
06.03.2025 TO 12.03.2025 01.03.2025 TO 12.03.2025
Actual Normal Departure Actual Normal Departure
(mm) (mm) (%) (mm) (mm) (%)
EAST &
11.5 15.9 -28% 34.0 45.4 -25%
NORTHEAST INDIA
NORTHWEST INDIA 0.3 11.6 -97% 26.7 42.3 -37%
CENTRAL INDIA 4.6 1.1 +321% 4.7 6.8 -32%
SOUTH PENINSULA 7.3 4.1 +79% 19.2 13.3 +45%
THE COUNTRY AS
4.9 7.2 -32% 19.0 25.1 -24%
A WHOLE
2. Large scale features:
❖ Over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below
average in most of the central and east-central Pacific Ocean. The weak La Niña
conditions are present over Pacific and are expected to persist through the February
to March (FMA) season. After that, a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is likely.
❖ Near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are currently seen across most of
the Indian Ocean. Currently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are
observed over the Indian Ocean. The latest MMCFS forecast indicates that the
neutral IOD conditions are likely to turn to negative IOD conditions for a short
period of time.
❖ The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is currently in Phase 6 with an
amplitude near 1. It is likely to migrate to Phase 7 during the first half of Week 1,
with amplitude remaining near 1, and will remain in Phase 7 for the remaining
days of Week 1. By the start of Week 2, it is likely to migrate to Phase with amplitude
becoming > 1. It will remain in Phase 8 for the remaining days of Week 2.
3. Forecast for the next two weeks
Weather systems & associated Precipitation during Week 1 (27 March to 02
April, 2025) and Week 2 (03 to 09 April, 2025)
Weather systems & associated Precipitation during Week 1 (27 March to 02
April, 2025):
❖ A Western Disturbance as a trough in lower to upper tropospheric levels runs
roughly along Long. 62°E to the north of Lat. 25°N. A cyclonic circulation lies over
central Pakistan & neighbourhood and another over northeast Assam in lower
tropospheric levels. Under their influence:
✓ Isolated to scattered light/moderate rainfall accompanied with
thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (40-50 kmph) likely over
Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad and accompanied
with thunderstorm, lightning over Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh on
27th March.
✓ Scattered to fairly widespread light/moderate rainfall accompanied with
thunderstorm, lightning likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam &
Meghalaya, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on 28th & 29th March.
✓ Strong Surface winds (25-35 kmph) very likely at isolated places over
Punjab, West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh on 27th & 28th March.
✓ Dust raising winds (20-30 kmph) very likely at isolated places over West
Rajasthan on 27th & 28th March.
✓ Heavy rainfall/snowfall likely at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh
on 28th & 29th March.
❖ A north-south trough runs from north Madhya Maharashtra to north Kerala across
interior Karnataka in lower tropospheric levels. Under its influence:
✓ Isolated to scattered light/moderate rainfall accompanied with
thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (speed 30-50 kmph) likely over
Madhya Maharashtra, North Interior Karnataka on 29th & 30th , Konkan &
Goa on 29th; Marathawada on 30th; Kerala & Mahe, South Interior
Karnataka during 27th -31st; Coastal Karnataka, Coastal Andhra Pradesh
& Yanam on 27th, 30th & 31st March.
❖ No significant weather likely over rest parts of the country during the week.
Precipitation for week 2 (03 to 09 April, 2025):
❖ Under the influence of western disturbances, scattered to fairly widespread
rainfall/snowfall is likely over Western Himalayan Region during some days of the
week.
❖ Light/moderate isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over northeast India and
Peninsular & adjoining central India during some to many days of the week.
❖ Overall, rainfall is likely to be above normal over south Peninsular India and below
normal over rest parts of the country during the week.
Temperature forecast & heat wave warning for Week 1 (27 March to 02 April,
2025) and Week 2 (03 to 09 April, 2025)
Temperature forecast & heat wave warning for Week 1 (27 March to 02 April,
2025):
Maximum Temperature Departures (as on 26-03-2025): Maximum Temperatures
were markedly above normal (5.1°C or more) at many places over Haryana
Chandigarh-Delhi; at isolated places over Punjab, Rajasthan, West Madhya
Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-
Gilgit-Baltistan Muzaffarabad; appreciably above normal (3.1°C to 5.0°C) at
many places over East Uttar Pradesh; at a few places over Uttarakhand; at
isolated places over East Madhya Pradesh; above normal (1.6°C to 3.0°C) at
many places over Himachal Pradesh, Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim,
Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Bihar, Vidarbha; at a few places over
Odisha, Marathwada; at isolated places over Gangetic West Bengal, Coastal
Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat Region. These were
below normal (-3.0°C to -1.6°C) at isolated places over Telangana and near
normal over rest parts of the country.
Forecast of temperature:
Maximum temperature:
❖ Gradual fall in maximum temperatures by 3-5°C likely over Northwest India during
next 3 days and rise by 2-3°C thereafter.
❖ Gradual rise in maximum temperatures by 2-3°C likely over East India during next
2 days and no significant change thereafter.
❖ No significant change in maximum temperatures over Gujarat state during next 3
days and rise by 2-3°C thereafter.
❖ Gradual fall in maximum temperatures by 2-3°C likely over Central India during
next 3 days and no significant change thereafter.
Heat wave and Hot & Humid weather warning:
❖ Heat wave conditions very likely in isolated pockets of interior Odisha during 28 th-
30th March.
❖ Hot & humid weather conditions very likely to prevail in isolated pockets of Coastal
Andhra Pradesh & Yanam on 28th & 29th; coastal areas of Gujarat during 29th-31st
March.
Temperature forecast & heat wave warning for Week 2 (03 to 09 April, 2025):
❖ Maximum temperatures are likely to be above normal by 2-3°C over most parts
of northwest India and northeast India; and by 2-4°C over most parts of East
India; near normal over rest parts of the country.
❖ There is a low to moderate probability of heatwave conditions over interior
Odisha, adjoining Chhattisgarh and northern parts of Coastal Andhra Pradesh
during some days of the week 2.
❖ Minimum temperatures are likely to be below normal or near normal over most
parts of the country.
Annexure I
Annexure II
Annexure III
Extended range forecast of weekly distribution of rainfall in mm per day (top
panel) and anomalies (lower panel) from IMD MME
Annexure IV
Extended range forecast of weekly distribution of Maximum Temperature in
°C (top panel) and anomalies (lower panel) from IMD Bias Corrected Forecast
Annexure V
Heat Wave forecast during next 2 weeks
EXTENDED RANGE OUTLOOK FOR HEATWAVE
Wee1: 28.03.2025- 03.04.2025 Week2: 04.04.2025- 10.04.2025
PROBABILITY OF HEATWAVE CONFIDENCE
LOW (1-33% PROBABILITY)
MODERATE (34-67% PROBABILITY)
HIGH (68-100% PROBABILITY)
