WOLAITA SODO UNIVERSITY

COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICLTURAL ECONOMICCS

DETERMINATES OF FOOD INSECURITY: IN CASE OF SHYAMBA

KILENA KEBELE DAMOTE SORE WOREDA,WOLAITA ZONE,
SNNPR OF ETHIOPIA
BSC. RESEARCH PROPOSAL
SUBMITTED TO DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL
ECONOMICS IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF RESEARCH
METHOD

BY
LEMMA BALI IDNo.AGR/R/116/11
ADVISOR; ALEMAYEHU (Msc)

MARCH 2020
 WOLAITA SODO,ETHIOPIA

Acknowledgement

First of all I would like to provide our deepest and spatial thanks to
God, who help and guide me in right position. Next, I would also like to
extend our thanks to our advisor Alemayehu who puts me in the right
direction to do my research proposal in the right way and his polite
relation with me. All in all, I have appreciated and provided my sincere
thanks to him.
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

AE Adult Equivalent

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization

FGT Foster Greer Thorbeke

FSB Federal Food Security Coordination Bureau

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GNP Gross Nation Product

GOE Government of Ethiopia

HFI House Hold Food Insecurity

HYV High Yield Variety

MOFED Ministry of Finance and Economic Development

SNNPR Southern Nation Nationality People Region

USAID United States Aid for International Development

USD United States Dollar

Table of contents

Acknowledgement iii

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS iv

Table of contents v

List of Tables vii

List of figure viii

ABSTRACT ix

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Background and Justification 1

1.2 Statement of the Problem 3

1.3 Objective 5

1.3.1 General Objective 5

1.3.2 Specific Objective 5

1.4 Research Question 5

1.5 Significance of the Study 6

1.6 Scope and Limitation of the Study 6

CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW 7

2.1 Theoretical Review 7

2.2 Empirical Review 10

CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY 13

3.1 Description of Study Area 13

3.2 Sampling Techniques and Sample Size 13

3.3 Type, Source and method of data collection 15

3.4 Method of Data Analysis and Analytical Model 15

3.5 Hypothesis 17
REFERENCES 38
APPENDEXES 38

List of Figures

Fig1: four dimensions of food security (http:://foodsecuritycluster.net

/sites/default/files/What%20is%20Food%20Security.pdf 8

Figure 2: sampling procedure 15

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background Of The Study

Food insecurity is increasing in the world where 925 million people are undernourished.
Out of them, about 900 million people are living in developing countries (FAO, 2010). More
than 70% of these people live in rural areas and depend, directly or indirectly, on agriculture
for their living. The majority of the developing countries invest in the agricultural sector due
to which these households are more vulnerable to price instability. The main focus of
agricultural investment remained on exportable crops to generate foreign exchange that
forced countries to rely on continued low international food prices to meet national food
demand (IAASTD, 2008).

The majority of food insecure and hungry people in the global context live in Asia and the

Pacific (16%), Sub-Saharan Africa (30%), and near East and North Africa (8%), and Latin

America and the Caribbean (9%). Among this the proportion of food insecure and hungry

people in Sub-Saharan Africa is showing fast increment as compared to early 1990s (FAO,

2010).

The gap between food production and consumption in most SSA countries is induced by

the slowdown of the agricultural production growth rates. The major causes for the slow

growth rates of agriculture include various factors such as unfavorable climatic conditions,

undeveloped infrastructures, inappropriate agricultural policies and predominantly traditional

production systems (Mohamed, 1995).

Most of the world’s poorest countries are in Africa and many of these face chronic poverty
and food insecurity. Agriculture, of which 85-90 percent is rain-fed in Sub-Saharan Africa,
accounts for 35 percent of the region’s gross national product (GNP), 40 percent of exports
and 70 percent of employment Babatunde et al (2007).
 Agriculture is a key driver of Ethiopia’s long-term growth and food security. Agriculture
directly supports 85 percent of the population, constitutes 43 percent of Gross Domestic
Product (GDP), and 80 percent of export value. Nearly 16 percent of Government of Ethiopia
(GOE) public expenditures are committed to the sector (Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation,
2010). Agriculture is the predominant and an important economic sector in Ethiopia.

With a population projected to reach 80 million in 2010 and about 45 percent living below
the poverty line and most vulnerable to food insecurity. Ensuring food security remains a key
issue for the Government of Ethiopia. In order to combat threats of famine and pervasive
poverty and thereby ensure food security for its population, the government strategy has
rested on increasing the availability of food grains through significant investments in
agricultural technologies (high yielding varieties of seeds, fertilizer), services (extension,
credit, inputs), and rural infrastructure (roads, markets). The impacts of these policies,
however, have been shadowed as there are still millions of people who experience extreme
hunger in the country (Bogale and Shimelis 2009).

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO, 2010),
reported that,41 percent of the Ethiopian population lives below the poverty line and more
than 31 million people are undernourished. However, the latest undernourishment numbers
show a positive trend (1990-92: 71% of the population; 1995-97: 64%; 2000-02: 50%; 2004-
06: 44%).

A report on the dynamics of poverty revealed that about 38.7% of the people in Ethiopia
were under the national poverty line in 2004/2005, and the poverty level in rural areas
(39.3%) was slightly higher than that of urban areas (35.1%)(MoFED,2012).Between
2004/2005 and 2010/2011, the average headcount of poverty decreased in both urban and
rural areas of the country with the national headcount poverty standing at 29.6% in
2010/2011.Concentrations of food insecurity and malnutrition are prevalent in rural areas,
with a population of six to seven million chronically food insecure, and up to 13 million
seasonally food insecure(Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, 2010).

The performance of agriculture, however, in terms of feeding the country’s population,

which is growing at about 2.9 percent per annum, is poor. Currently in Ethiopia, there are
more than 10 million people who have been affected by drought. Some 4.6 million people are
threatened by
The performance of agriculture, however, in terms of feeding the country’s
population, which is growing at about 2.9 percent per annum, is poor. Currently in Ethiopia,
there are more than 10 million people who have been affected by drought. Some 4.6 million
people are threatened by hunger and malnutrition and require urgent food assistance. The
deteriorating situation is compounded by high food prices, the cost of cereals has more than
doubled in many markets since the beginning of the year, hampering the ability of many
people to meet their most basic food needs and impoverishing them further (WFP2009).

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Several studies in the past have indicated that people of Ethiopia have experienced long
periods of food insecurity which may be ascribed to several factors which include occasional
droughts and also degradation of farm lands. These factors have limited the “physical, social
and economic access to sufficient ,safe and nutritious food necessary to meet the dietary
needs and food preferences for leading an active and healthy life” for majority of the
residents(Gilligan et al, 2008).

According to (WFP, the 2011) Horn of Africa drought left 4.5 million Ethiopians in need

of emergency food assistance. Pastoralist areas in southern and southeastern Ethiopia were

the worst affected. In addition, cereal markets experienced a supply shock and food prices

were rose and resulting in high food insecurity among poor people. By the beginning of 2012,

the overall food security situation had stabilized thanks to the start of the harvest season and

sustained humanitarian assistance. Still, even the Humanitarian Requirements Document

issued by the government in early 2012 estimates that 3.2 million people will require relief

food assistance from January to June 2012. This number is likely to increase following the

extended dry conditions and erratic start of the rain season.

Both transitory and chronic food insecurity are severe in Ethiopia. Moreover, food

insecurity is one of the defining features of rural poverty affecting millions of people
particularly in moisture- deficit and pastoral areas. Even in years of adequate rainfall

and good harvests, these people remain in need of food assistance (FDRE, 2001).

Land degradation coupled with unpredictable rainfall, drought causes a serious threat on
households’ food security in Ethiopia. Besides, overgrazing, improper cultivation practices,
mismanagement of land resource are the main causes for land degradation (Bill & Melinda
Gates Foundation, 2010). Poor soil fertility, land shortage, frost attack, chronic shortage of
cash income, poor farming technologies, weak extension services, high labor wastage, and
poor social and infrastructural situation have caused the problem of food insecurity. Hence, a
combination of factors has resulted in serious and growing problem of food insecurity in
Ethiopia (Hussein, 2006). These will have cumulative effects on household level food
security status.

Through time, poor and hungry populations become less flexible to stress and disasters as
they rely a great deal on the natural environment and lack the capacity and the resources
required recovering from disasters (Oluoko et al, 2011). For Ethiopia to achieve middle-
income status by 2025 and to found solution for food insecurity, concentrated and strategic
investment and strategic choices in the agricultural sector are vital. Over 90 percent of
agricultural output is driven by smallholder farmers. Without expanding cultivated land, and
given forecast population growth, the average land holding size in highland areas will be
reduced to 0.7 hectares by 2020, placing further pressure on rural incomes and food security.
Agriculture contributes substantially to the overall Ethiopian economy. On a nominal GDP of
USD 25.6 billion 43 percent was driven by the agricultural sector; crop production accounts
for 29 percent, with livestock at 12 percent, followed by the forestry sector with 4 percent.

In Ethiopia, the seriousness of food shortage problem varies from one area to another,
depending on the state of the natural resources and the extent of development of food
shortage (Webb etal, 1994) as cited in (Amsalu et al, 2012). Different factors aggravated the
growing problem of food security in this country. Among the major challenges of food
security in Ethiopia are backward agriculture, unstable weather recurrent drought, pests and
disease, population pressure, weak institutional capacity, and inadequate infrastructures and
social services (FSB, 2007).
 Few case studies have been conducted at household levels and food insecurity studies at
the national level fails to articulate household’s availability and access to needed food (Hart,
2009).The majority of Ethiopians lives in rural areas tackle similar challenges in securing
sufficient food at household level due to the topographic and biophysical variation throughout
Ethiopia, transitory food insecurity varies across geographic space and time.

Rationales to undertake our research on food insecurity are the issue of food insecurity in
today’s world, to address food security issue and desire to know about food security concept
and measurement practically, to know the analyses of food insecurity and its determinant in
the study area (shayamba kilena kebele), and to share experience from food insecurity
researcher to apply in the future since our career is mostly involved in this issue.

1.3 Objective
1.3.1 General Objective

The overall objective of the study is to assess the detereminates of food insecurity in
Shayamba kilena kebele.

1.3.2 Specific Objective

The specific objectives of the study are

 Assess food security status in shayamba kebele
 Identify major determinants of food insecurity in the study area
 To measure the responsiveness of the determinants of food insecurity in the study
area.

1.4 Research Question

This study will answer basic research questions like
1. What does looks like food insecurity status in Shayamba Kilena kebele?
2. What are the major determinants of food insecurity in the study area?
3. What are the coping strategies of food insecure?

1.5 Significance of the Study

 This study provides information that will enable effective measures to be undertaken so as
to improve food security status in the study area. And it provides information about the study
area in relation to food security status, location, farming system and other demographic data.
This research is not only essential for the society of that kebele but also for us to understand
food insecurity determinant, concept and measurement clearly in addition to the course rural
development and food security.

1.6 Scope and Limitation of the Study

The study will be conducted in Shayamba kilena kebele of Wolaita zuriya wereda. This
study will focused on identifying determinants of food insecurity and coping strategies
practiced by food insecure households will also assessed at different levels at the time of food
shortage. This study will be conducted in only one kebel of Shayamba kilena kebele because
of lack of budget, time and other opportunity costs (resource) to accomplish the study.
Moreover, the study deals with a limited number of households and focused on the
status and determinants of food insecurity. Besides to this, the data were collected at
one time period and during the time of enough food is available.

CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Theoretical Review
2.1.1 Food Security Concept and Definition

Food security concept originated in the mid-1970s during the international discussion on
global food crisis. The initial focus of food security attention was primarily on food supply
problems- of assuring the availability and to some degree the price stability of basic
foodstuffs at the international and national level (Clay, 2002 and FAO, 2005). Thus, in the
1970s the issue of food security referred to the national food supply's capacity to meet the
population's energy and nutrient needs. The concept of household food security has been
understood by many development workers as the availability of food in the world
marketplace and on the food production systems of developing countries (Fanta, 2003 and
Bedeke, 2012).
 Since the World Food Conference in 1974 due to food crises and major famines in the
world, the term Food Security was introduced, evolved, developed and diversified by
different researchers. Food security and insecurity are terms used to describe whether or not
households have access to sufficient quality and quantity of food. Food security issues gained
prominence in the 1970s and have since been given considerable attention. Food security is
perceived at the global, national, household and individual levels. Food security at global
level does not guarantee food security at the national level. Moreover, food security at the
national level does not guarantee food security at the household or even the individual level
(Duffour, 2010).

Afterwards, worldwide observations of different access to available food within nations

shifted interest and concern from food security from the national to the household level. At
the same time, the unit of analysis shifted from the global and national level to the household
and individual level (Hart, 2009).

In 1983, FAO analysis focused on food access, leading to a definition based on the balance
between the demand and supply side of the food security equation: “Ensuring that all people
at all times have both physical and economic access to the basic food that they need”(FAO,
1983). In the World Bank (1986) report, Poverty and Hunger, this concept of food security is
further In 1983, FAO analysis focused on food access, leading to a definition based on the
balance between the demand and supply side of the food security equation: “Ensuring that all
people at all times have both physical and economic access to the basic food that they
need”(FAO, 1983). In the World Bank (1986) report, Poverty and Hunger, this concept of
food security is further elaborated in terms of: ‘access of all people at all times to enough
food for an active, healthy life.’

Food security is a condition that exists when all people at all times have sufficient physical
and economic access to safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs including food
preferences, in order to live a healthy and active life (USAID,2008, FAO ,1983).

In the present study, food security is defined as adequate availability of and access to food
for households to meet the minimum energy requirements as recommended by the Ethiopian
government for an active and healthy life (Wali and Penporn, 2013).
2.1.2 Dimensions of Food Security
 Fig1: four dimensions of food security (http:://foodsecuritycluster.net
/sites/default/files/What%20is%20Food%20Security.pdf

Dimension Definition

Stability All people, at all times

Utilization Sufficient food

Physical and economic access

Availability

Access Safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary

needs
Jrad et al, (2010), elaborated on four dimensions of food security as food availability, food
accessibility, food utilization and stability.

Food availability: refers to the physical presence of food which may come from own
production, purchases from internal market or import from overseas. Gregory et al., (2005)
explained that food availability refers to the existence of food stocks for consumption.
The same source, availability refers to the physical existence of food, be it from own
production or on the markets. On national level food availability is a function of the
combination of domestic food stocks, commercial food imports, food aid, and domestic food
production, as well as the underlying determinants of each of these factors. Use of the term
availability is often confusing, since it can refer to food supplies available at both the
household level and at a more aggregate (regional or national) level. However, the term is
applied most commonly in reference to food supplies at the regional or national level.

Food access: Household food access is the ability to obtain sufficient food of guaranteed
quality and quantity to meet nutritional requirements of all household members. Here, the
food should be at right place at the right time and people should have economic freedom or
purchasing power to buy adequate and nutritious food. Kuwornu et al, (2011), explained that
food access is determined by physical and financial resources, as well as by social and
political factors. Access depends normally on; income available to the household, the
distribution of income within the household, the price of food, and other factors worth
mentioning are individuals’ access to market, social and institutional entitlement/rights.

Food utilization: this refers to ingestion and digestion of adequate and quality food for
maintenance of good health. This means proper biological use of food, requiring a diet that
contains sufficient energy and essential nutrients, as well as knowledge of food storage,
processing, basic nutrition and child care and illness management (Jrad et al,2010).
Food utilization: proper biological use of food, requiring a diet with sufficient energy and
essential nutrients, potable water and adequate sanitation, as well as knowledge of food
storage, processing, basic nutrition and child care and illness management (USAID, 2008).

Stability of Food: refers to the continuous supply of adequate food all year round without
shortages (Jrad et al, 2010). To be food secure a population, household, or individual must
have access to adequate food at all times. They should not be at risk of losing access to food
as a consequence of a shock (e.g. an econom particular period of the year – seasonal food
insecurity). The concept of stability can therefore refer to both the availability and access
dimensions of food security.

2.2 Empirical Review

2.2.1 Determinants of Food Insecurity

Factors that affect household food insecurity in various developing countries especially in
Africa have been documented in some literature and these factors or determinants are most
often than not location-specific (i.e. different study areas were found to have variant
attributes as food security determinants with some attributes recurring) (Rober et al,2013).

The study conducted in Nigeria by Oluyole et al (2009) using probit model found out that
sex of household head, educational level, age and income have negative influence on food
insecurity whereas household size has positive influence on household food insecurity.

Study by Sikwela (2008) in South Africa using logistic regression model showed that per
aggregate production, fertilizer application, cattle ownership and access to irrigation have
negative effect on household food insecurity whereas farm size and household size have
positive effect on household food security.
 Fertilizer is used by most studies as a proxy for technology. According to Aliber and Hart
(2009), subsistence farming by its nature is production for direct consumption. Any farm
input that augments agricultural productivity is expected to boost the production; this
contributes to wards attaining household food security.

According to the study conducted by Muhammad et al(2012) in Pakistan household’s

monthly income, household heads education levels and Ownership of Livestock has positive
relation with house hold food security ;on the other hand, age of the household head and
household size have a negative relationship with food security.

Study by Osei et al (2013) in the Sekyere Afram Plains District of Ghana, Farm size, off
farm income, and credit access were positively and significantly related to the probability of a
ic or climatic crisis), or cyclically (e.g. during a particular period of the year – seasonal food
insecurity). The concept of stability can therefore refer to both the availability and access
dimensions of food security.
According to the study conducted by Muhammad et al(2012) in Pakistan household’s
monthly income, household heads education levels and Ownership of Livestock has positive
relation with house hold food security ;on the other hand, age of the household head and
household size have a negative relationship with food security.

Study by Osei et al (2013) in the Sekyere Afram Plains District of Ghana, Farm size, off
farm income, and credit access were positive household being food secure; marital status and
household size had a negative and significant relationship with food security.

Nyangwesoi et al (2007) in a study of household food security in Vihiga district of Kenya

found that household income, number of adults, ethnicity, savings behavior, and nutrition
awareness significantly influence household food insecurity. In a similar study, Kohoi et al.
(2005) established that the significant determinants of food insecurity in the Mwingi district
of Kenya were participation of households in the food-for-work program, marital status of the
household heads, and their educational level. Similarly, in a study of food security in the
Lake Chad area of Borno State, Nigeria, Goni (2005) reported factors that influence
household food insecurity, which include household size, stock of home-produced food, and
numbers of income earners in the household.
 Paul Amaza et al (2009) in the study of Changes in household food security and poverty
status in Nigeria revealed that household size, cost of hired labor, participation in Promoting
Sustainable Agricultural activities and non-agricultural income have significant positive
effects on the food security status of the household. Household size had a negative effect,
indicating that large households are more likely to be food insecure.

According to studies conducted in Ethiopia, ownership of livestock, farmland size, family

labor, off farm income, market access, use of improved technology, education, health,
amount of rainfall and distribution, crop diseases, number of livestock, and family size are
identified as major determinants of household food insecurity (Regassa, 2011; Eden et al,
2009 and Bedeke, 2012).

According to Wali and Penporn (2013) conducted in Jigjiga District of Ethiopia, use of
fertilizer by farming households, total household income, access to veterinary services and
access to extension services was found to have a negative and significant impact on
household food insecurity; whereas, the agro-ecology stratum in which the Households’
farmland was located found to have a positive and statistically significant impact on food
insecurity.

ly and significantly related to the probability of a household being food secure; marital status
and household size had a negative and significant relationship with food security.

Nyangwesoi et al (2007) in a study of household food security in Vihiga district of Kenya

found that household income, number of adults, ethnicity, savings behavior, and nutrition
awareness significantly influence household food insecurity. In a similar study, Kohoi et al.
(2005) established that the significant determinants of food insecurity in the Mwingi district
of Kenya were participation of households in the food-for-work program, marital status of the
household heads, and their educational level. Similarly, in a study of food security in the
Lake Chad area of Borno State, Nigeria, Goni (2005) reported factors that influence
household food insecurity, which include household size, stock of home-produced food, and
numbers of income earners in the household.
 CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY
3.1 Description of Study Area

Shayamba Kilena is one of the kebele exist in Domot Sore woreda in Wolaita
zone of south nation nationalities people regional in Ethipopia.it located 12.5km away from
Wolaita sodo.the total area of the kebele 833.75ha and characterized by high in moisture with
an annual average rainfall about 1500_1850 milliliters and its annual temperature is the
maximum and minimum is 23 and 18 respectively.the total population of the kebele are 5728
of whom 2921 were male and 2807 are female. The altitude of the Shayamba kilena kebele in
meter is 1500 to 1750 meters and the physical featheres of the kebele is plain.From this total
population the people are ethnically wolaitegna and they follow protestant religion and some
are follows orthodox.
Agriculture is the back bone of the economy and it is the main source of job
opportunity for this area. It is takes a greater part as service of income for the farmers;
however, it is unable to meet one of it is most important function, i.e. the provision of food
for the large expanding population. Cereals as wheat, teff, finger millet, maize and others
crop a resource of food and cash income. Livestock production forms an integral part of
almost all farming systems in crop producing areas of the region and they used the
livestock as the complement of farm input and source of cash.

3.2 Sampling Techniques and Sample Size

A multistage sampling technique was applied for the study, where in first step; from
Wolaita zurea woreda and Shayamba kebele was selected purposively to determinantes of
food insecurity issue in the kebele and to know food security status of the kebele.

Then at the second step, a total of two gots are selected by using simple random sampling.
Then Slovin’s sampling formula with 95 percent confidence level had been used to determine
sample respondents.

Slovin Formula: n= N__

 1+N (E) ²

Where: n = sample size

N = total number of household from two gots
E = margin of error

Numbers of households in the first gots = 190

Numbers of households in the second gots =250

N =190+250

N =440 households:
n = 440__ = 209.52
1+440 (0.05) ²

The above formula shows that the actual sample size for this study is 209.52, but due to time
and budget, i reduced the sample size into 130. A total of 130 households were selected
through two stage probability sampling. Two got were selected randomly from the kebele.
Thereafter, the required sample size was shared among those selected gots using probability
proportional to size method. Then the sample households in the got were selected by using
systematic random sampling technique from the two gots.

Wolaita zurea woreda Purposively

Purposively

Shaysamba kilena kebele

First gots
Figure 2: sampling procedure Second gots Randomly

3.3 Type, Source and method of data collection

Both qualitative and quantitative data were collected from primary and secondary sources
to identify important variable that affect household food security. Thus, primary data were
 obtained from sample respondents by using structured questionnaire. Qualitative data were
gathered from group discussion. Secondary data were collected from published and
unpublished materials related to subject. It was the main source of information because it
indicates the past and the present food security.

The main data were collected for this study include household demographic characteristics,
socio economic characteristics, income source, livestock ownership, land size and access to
credit service.

Income expenditure method was used to measure house hold food security in the study
area. This method included food and non-food expenditure to identify the house hold that
spends more for food by evaluating the collected data from the respondents from interviewed
method.
To aggregate the data, some units of measurement have been standardized. As a result, some
conversion factors for tropical livestock unit (TLU) and hectare (ha) has been employed.

3.4 Method of Data Analysis and Analytical Model

After the data had been collected from sample respondents by using income expenditure
method, the results obtained was compared with the income of the house hold that purchase
252kg/head cereal per year. The household who has the income to purchase 252kg/head per
year excluding non-food expenditure were categorized as food secure and those households
whose income purchase less than 252kg/head per year are considered as food insecure.

After food secure and insecure households are identified; the next step was data analysis.
The data were analyzed by Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 20.0. SPSS
were Figure 2: sampling procedure

SPSS were used to analyze descriptive statistics such as frequencies and cross tabulation to
generate tabulated reports, charts; and to analyze factors influencing for house hold food
insecurity in the study area. T-test; and Chi square tests were also used to indicate the
significance of continuous and discrete variables on household food security, respectively.
Descriptive statistic such as percentage, mean, minimum, maximum, standard deviation, bar
charts, table and pie charts were used.
 The existence of Multicollinearity problem between categorical variables and continuous
explanatory variables were detected by contingency coefficient (C) and variance inflation
factor (VIF) respectively.

We were also used the binary probit regression model to test proposed hypothesis and to
reveal the marginal effect of different variables on house hold food insecurity. This model
used binary or dichotomous variables as its name indicates like food secured and food
insecure in our subject matter.
Mathematical expression of the model
 p 
Ln     0  1 xi1   2 xi 2  .... k xik  u i
 1 p  (Gujararti, 2004)
Where
Ln= natural logarithm

P=probability of being food secure

1-p=probability of food insecure

β0,β1,β2,… and βk are coefficients of explanatory variables

x1, x2, … and xk are explanatory variables

n=number of explanatory variables

ui=error term

e 0  1xi1   2 xi 2 ... . k xik

p
From the above equation, we can derive p as follows 1  e 0  1xi1   2 xi 2 ... . k xik ……………
Law of exponential function
Where, e=the base of natural logarithm

In this study the explanatory variables those were included in the model are :
X1 = Age of Household Head (AHH).
X2 = Educational level of house hold head
X3=Family size
X4=Dependency ratio of household
X5 = Land size (LS) in hectare
X6=Use of arm input (1=yes, 0=no)
X7=Only On-farm income activity (Income source of household) (If yes =1, otherwise=
0)
X8=Livestock ownership
X9= Credit Access (if yes =1, otherwise= 0)

3.5 Hypothesis

The dependent variable in this study is Household Food Insecurity (HFI) status. House hold
food insecurity was hypothesized to be a function consisting of the following components.

HFI=f(Age of house hold head, educational level of house hold, family size, dependency
ratio, income source , livestock ownership, use of farm inputs, farm land size, credit access).

Educational level of house hold: It is a continuous variable defined as the level of grades or
schooling years attained by the household heads. This variable is an important determinant of
household food insecurity status in that, educated households have a better chance of
adopting soil conservation measures (Million and Belay, 2004) which in turn increases crop
production. Thus, education level is hypothesized to have a positive effect on household food
security.

Family size (FS): It is an important variable, which determines the household food
insecurity status in the study area. As the family size increases, the number of mouths to be
e 0  1xi1   2 xi 2 ... . k xik
p
fed obviously 1  e 0  1xi1   2 xi 2 ... . k xik …………… Law of exponential function

Where, e=the base of natural logarithm

Farm land size (LS): Farm size is the total area of land cultivated to food and cash crop by
households, measured in hectares. Positive relationship has been established between farm
size and improvement in households’ income and food security (Jayne et al., 2005). The
larger the farm size of the household, the higher the expected level of food production. It is,
therefore, expected of a household with a larger farm size to be more food secure than a
household with a smaller farm size, all things being equal. Hence the expected effect on food
security is positive.
Dependency ratio (DR): this is measured as total dependent family member divided by the
number of individuals working to support the household, due to the scarcity of resources, an
increase in household size especially the non-working members put pressure on consumption
than production (Feleke et al.,2003). An increase in the number of non-working member of
household or dependency ratio increases the food insecurity level of household (Ojogbo,
2010). The expected effect of this variable on food insecurity is positive.

Livestock ownership (LO): Households who own livestock have good food security status
as well as sustainable farming (Ramakrishna and Assefa, 2002).Negative correlation is
expected between livestock ownership and house hold food insecurity.

Source of house hold Income (IS): This refers to the sum of earnings of household from off-
farm, non-farm and on-farm sources (Babatunde el al., 2007). According to Arene and
Anyaeji (2010), the more household head engage in gainful employment, the higher he/she
earns income and the greater the chances of being food secure. The income is expected to
increase household’s food production and access to more quantity and quality food. The
expected effect on food insecurity is, therefore, negative.

Use of farm inputs (chemical fertilizer and high yield variety (HYV)): This variable refers
to use of chemical fertilizer such as DAP, UREA, HYV, pesticide and herbicide. The amount
of farm input (improved inputs) used was converted to monetary value based on market price
during last year farming season. A h Credit fertilizer and HYV) was hypothesized to have
negative relation with food insecurity status access (CA): Credit serves as a means to boost
production and expand income generating activities (Devereux, 2001). Thus, a household
which has access to credit does initiate investment in farm and non-farm activities and
achieve food security. Thus, it is hypothesized that credit access has negative relation with
household food insecurity.
 4. WORKPLAN AND BUDGET BREAKDOWN
4.1 Time Budget
This study has planned to be completed within forum on the in the 2018 starting from
mar. This time will be allocated to different phases of researcher project based on the
scale of the research paper. The following table shows the time require a long with the
site of research paper.

No Types of activities Feb. Ma Apr MA Ju Aug SE

r Y ne P

1 Title identification 

2 Proposal writing 

3 Proposal submission 

4 Proposal defense 

5 Developing 
questionnaires

6 Data collection 

7 Data presentation, 
analysis and
interpretation

8 Report writing

9 Submission of final
research

10 Defense
 4.2 Cost Budget
The source of funds to complete the research will be financed from Debre Markos University.
This money will be allocated based on different requirement for research to be complete. The
following table illustrates the amount of money and allocation cost budget.

No Description of item Unit Quantity Unit of Unit of

cost in Birr total cost

1 Paper Pack 1 250 250

2 Pen Piece 5 6 30

3 Ruler Piece 1 10 10

4 Flash Piece 1 250 250

5 Cost of editing Page 50 2 100

6 Writing the proposal Page 25 7 175

7 Printing proposal Page 25 2 50

8 Writing, editing and printing Page 50 10 500

senior research

9 Internet service cost Card 80 80

10 Copying research Page 306 0.75 229.5

questionnaire

Grand total 1674.5

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APPENDEXES

Survey for Interview Schedule

Interviewing questionnaire prepared for determinants of rural household food security in

Shayamya kilena Kebele
1. Name of household head: _______________
2. Kebele
3. Age of HHH: _______
4. Sex of household head: 1.male 2.female
5.What is your Educational status?
1. Can not read and write
2. Primary(grade1-6)
3. Junior(grade 7-8)
4. Secondary and above
5. Informal education
6. Marital status: 1.Single 2.Married 3. Divorced 4.Widowed
7 Total number of family size ____

8. Religion: 1.Orthodox 2.Muslim 3.Protestant 4. Other (specify) _____

9.Dependency Ratio:_______
No Age Sex Active (15-64) Inactive(1- Inactive(>65)
14)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Asset possession of households
10. Do you have your own land for cropping and capture? 1= yes 2 =no

11. Do you use farm inputs? 1. Yes 2. No

12. If yes which inputs do you use? 1. Improved seed 2.Chemical fertilizers 3.Pesticide
4. Herbicide 5.Other
(specify)________________
13. If you say no why
1. . Lack of income
2. Distance to input source
3. Shortage of input supply
4. Price of input
 5. Others (specify): _________
14. How much yield did you get from cultivation of crops ? Fill the table below.
Crop Yield Did you sale the crop last Amount of
production season? income obtained
1. Yes 2. No
Barely
Wheat
Teff
Sorghum
Maize
Rice
Chat
Bean
Pea
Others
Total

15. Do you have livestock? 1. Yes 2. No

16. If yes fill the table below
S/N Type of livestock Number of In TLU Did you sale Income
livestock your livestock obtained from
last year and sale of
this year? 1. livestock
Yes 2. No
1 Oxen
2 Cow
3 Sheep
4 Mule
5 Horse
6 Donkey
7 Goat
8 Poultry
9 Bull
10 Heifer
11 Other (Specify)
Total
Source of household Income
17. What are your major sources of household income? (Rank if the response is multiple
answers).
1. On- farm 2.Off -farm 3.Non- farm
18. Have you earn income from the following sources? Indicate in the table below
No Income source Yes No Monthly Annual
income in income in Birr
Birr
1 Farm income
No Income source Yes No Monthly Annual
income in income in Birr
Birr
1.1 Sale of crop produce

1.2 Hiring agricultural land( Renting

out)
1.3 Sale of livestock and livestock
products(milk,eggs,
butter,chickens…)
2. Off farm
2.1 Daily laborer in agriculture,labour
3 Non-farm
3.1 Hand craft
3.2 Construction work
3.3 Sale of Charcoal and Fire wood
( collection)
3.4 Petty trade
3.5 Sale of local
drink(tella,areke,&tej) and
food(kolo,bread)
3.6 Weaving
4. Remittance
5. Other
6 Total
29. Household Expenditure

No Type Monthly expenditure in Annual expenditure in

Birr Birr
1 Cloth
2 Health
3 Education
4 Kerosene
5 Social obligation
6 Farm input
6.1 Purchase of fertilizer
6.2 Purchase of improved seed
6.3 Purchase of chemicals
6.4 Farm labor
6.5 Purchase of farm tools
6.6 AI service
6.7 Tax for the land
6.8 Veterinary service
6.9 Other farm expenditures
7 Food expenditures
7.1 Purchase of cereals
7.2 Purchase of oil
7.3 Purchase of small ruminants
( for household
consumption)
7.4 Purchase of poultry ….
7.5 Purchase of fruit, vegetable,
coffee,onion,tea,chat...
7.6 Purchase of sugar, salt….
8 Others
Total Non-food expenditure
expen Food expenditure
diture
20. Have you received credit service from lenders? 1. Yes 2. No

21. If yes for question 20 for what purpose did you spend? Justify
1. Prchase of farm input
2. HH consumption
3. To pays tax and debts
4. Purchase of livestock
5. Other(specify) ___________
22. If you say no for 20 why 1. No access to credit 2. High interest rate 3. Fear of inability to
pay 4. Lack of awareness 5. Other (Specify)________________
27. Did you pay back the credit? 1. Yes 2. No
28.If no, why? 1. Crop failure 2. Death of livestock 3. Fall in crop &livestock price
4.other________
29. What are the major staple foods that your household consumes? (Multiple answer
possible).
1.Teff 2.Wheat 3 .Barley 4. Maize 5. Sorghum 6.other (specify)_______________
30. How do you cope with the problem of food shortage?
Stage of the problem Coping mechanisms Code for the
During crop failure in Numbers
(Rank) 1. Sale of livestock
1 ____________ 2. Borrow grains or cash from relatives
2 ____________ 3. Reduce size of meals
At initial stage of a 3 ____________ 4. Sale firewood and charcoal
food shortage 4 ____________ 5. Escaping of meal
5 ____________ 6. Food aid
7. Seasonal migration for laborer
1 ____________ 8. Ate less preferred food
2 ____________ 9.Sale of agricultural tools
At severe stage 3 ____________ 10.Children discontinue from school
of a food 4 ____________ 11.Child laboring
shortage 5 ____________ 12.Engaging in petty trade
13. Others, specify (Daily laborer)