CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer). Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. The Earth is the only planet in our solar system that supports life. The complex process of evolution occurred on Earth only because of some unique environmental conditions that were present: water, an oxygen-rich atmosphere, and a suitable surface temperature. Mercury and Venus, the two planets that lie between Earth and the sun, do not support life. This is because Mercury has no atmosphere and therefore becomes very hot during the day, while temperatures at night may reach -140 C. Venus, has a thick atmosphere which traps more heat than it allows to escape, making it too hot (between 150 and 450 C) to sustain life. Only the Earth has an atmosphere of the proper depth and chemical composition. About 30% of incoming energy from the sun is reflected back to space while the rest reaches the earth, warming the air, oceans, and land, and maintaining an average surface temperature of about 15 C. The chemical composition of the atmosphere is also responsible for nurturing life on our planet. Most of it is nitrogen (78%); about 21% is oxygen, which all animals need to survive; and only a small percentage (0.036%) is made up of carbon dioxide which plants require for photosynthesis. The atmosphere carries out the critical function of maintaining life-sustaining conditions on Earth, in the following way: each day, energy from the sun (largely in the visible part of the spectrum, but also some in the ultraviolet, and infra red portions) is absorbed by the land, seas, mountains, etc. If all this energy were to be absorbed completely, the earth would gradually become hotter and hotter. But actually, the earth both absorbs and, simultaneously releases it in the form of infra red waves (which cannot be seen by our eyes but can be felt as heat, for example the heat that you can feel with your hands over a heated car engine). All this rising heat is not lost to space, but is partly absorbed by some gases present in very small (or trace) quantities in the atmosphere, called GHGs (greenhouse gases). Greenhouse gases (for example, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, water vapour, ozone), re-emit some of this heat to the earth's surface. If they did not perform this useful function, most of the heat energy would escape, leaving the earth cold (about -18 C) and unfit to support life. However, ever since the Industrial Revolution began about 150 years ago, man-made activities have added significant quantities of GHGs to the atmosphere. The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have grown by about 31%, 151% and 17%, respectively, between 1750 and 2000 (IPCC 2001).
Variations of the Earth's surface temperature for the past 140 years
The Earths surface temperature is shown year by year (red bars) and approximately decade by decade (black line, a filtered annual curve suppressing fluctuations below near decadal time-scales). There are uncertainties in the annual data (thin black whisker bars represent the 95% confidence range) due to data gaps, random instrumental errors and uncertainties, uncertainties in bias corrections in the ocean surface temperature data and also in adjustments for urbanisation over the land. Over both the last 140 years and 100 years, the best estimate is that the global average surface temperature has increased by 0.6 0.2 C.
Source IPCC Third Assessment Report: Climate Change 2001 (The Scientific Basis,Summary for Policymakers)
From year 1000 to year 1860 variations in average surface temperature of the Northern Hemisphere are shown (corresponding data from the Southern Hemisphere not available) reconstructed from proxy data (tree rings, corals, ice cores, and historical records). The line shows the 50year average, the grey region the 95% confidence limit in the annual data. From years 1860 to 2000 are shown variations in observations of globally and annually averaged surface temperature from the instrumental record; the line shows the decadal average. From years 2000 to 2100 projections of globally averaged surface temperature are shown for the six illustrative SRES scenarios and IS92a using a model with average climate sensitivity. The grey region marked "several models all SRES envelope" shows the range of results from the full range of 35 SRES scenarios in addition to those from a range of models with different climate sensitivities. The temperature scale is departure from the 1990 value.
Source IPCC Third Assessment Report: Climate Change 2001 (Synthesis Report)
An increase in the levels of GHGs could lead to greater warming, which, in turn, could have an impact on the world's climate, leading to the phenomenon known as climate change. Indeed, scientists have observed that over the 20th century, the mean global surface temperature increased by 0.6 C (IPCC 2001). They also observed that since 1860 (the year temperature began to be recorded systematically using a thermometer), the 1990's have been the warmest decade.
However, variations in temperature have also occurred in the past - the best known is the Little Ice Age that struck Europe in the early Middle Ages, bringing about famines, etc. It is therefore difficult to determine whether current observations of increasing temperature are due to natural variabilities or whether they have been forced by anthropogenic (man-made) activities. Scientific studies and projections are further complicated by the fact that the changes in temperature that they have been observing do not occur uniformly over different layers of the lower atmosphere or even different parts of the earth. The Earth's climate system constantly adjusts so as to maintain a balance between the energy that reaches it from the sun and the energy that goes from Earth back to space. This means that even a small rise in temperature could mean accompanying changes in cloud cover and wind patterns. Some of these changes may enhance the warming (positive feedback), while others may counteract it (negative feedback). Negative feedback (causing a cooling effect) may result from an increase in the levels of aerosols (small particles of matter or liquid that can be produced by natural or man-made activities). Positive feedback may result from an increase in water vapour (because of greater evaporation with temp rise), which itself is a GHG and can further add to the warming effect. All the factors described above complicate the work of scientists who try to predict the fallout of climate change. Despite these uncertainties, the Third Assessment Report published by the IPCC states, 'there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities' (IPCC 2001).
Climate change and sustainable development
The issue of climate change is closely linked to other environmental issues, and to the challenge of sustainable development itself. Changes in temperature and precipitation may adversely affect freshwater availability and quality in many areas. Climate change could also aggravate current problems of biodiversity loss and desertification. On the other hand, local and regional air pollution, land degradation, and changes in forest cover could affect climate by changing the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, and the extent to which solar radiation is absorbed or reflected. Many strategies for sustainable development, such as afforestation, adoption of renewable energy, energy conservation, phasing out ozone depleting substances, etc are also the means of mitigating climate change.
Sectoral initiatives
Coal Coal is and will remain the mainstay of commercial energy production. To ensure more efficient use of coal the following measures have been taken: - Rationalization of coal use - Participation of private sector encouraged - Reforms in pricing - Technology upgradation involving: coal-washing, improvements in combustion technology and the recovery of coal-bed methane.
Oil To promote fuel efficiency and conservation, the following measures have been undertaken. Reduction of gas-flaring Installation of waste heat-recovery systems Energy audits Equipment upgradation Substitution of diesel with natural gas Establishment of PCRA (Petroleum Conservation Research Association) to increase awareness and develop fuel-efficient equipment. Gas This source of energy is the preferred substitute for coal and oil. In the residential sector, gas has replaced coal and kerosene CNG is being introduced as an alternative to petrol and diesel in the transport sector Major investments have been made in developing infrastructure for long distance and local distribution Import options are under consideration The share of gas in the power sector has increased from 2-8% Hydropower The government's policy objective is to exploit the huge potential in India's northeast. At present, about 25% of the total installed capacity is accounted for by hydro.
Renewables India has a very active programme to promote the use of renewable energy. Some salient features of the current renewables situation are given source-wise. Solar Photovoltaic systems based on solar energy have been put to a variety of uses in rural electrification, railway signalling, microwave repeaters, power to border outposts and TV transmission and reception. Grid-connected PV power plants with an aggregate capacity of 1900 kWp have been set up for demand-side management or tail-end voltage support. A 140 MW integrated solar combined cycle (ISCC) plant is being set up based on solar thermal technology and liquified natural gas. Solar lanterns, home- and street-lighting systems, stand-alone power plants, and pumping systems are being promoted. So far, 9,20,000 SPV systems with an aggregate capacity of 82 MWp have been installed in the country. Wind energy
India is among the five leading nations in wind power generation The installed capacity is 1507 MW, and generators of capacity 250-600 kW are manufactured here. 95% of installed wind power capacity is in the private sector. State-of-the-art wind power systems are also being manufactured in the country. In fact, wind turbine equipment is also being exported to other developing and developed countries.
Biogas Biomass power generation plants of a total capacity of about 358 MW have been installed and gasification systems of a total capacity of 42.8 MW have been set up for decentralized energy application. In rural areas, over 3.2 million biogas plants and 33 million improved stoves have been installed. Small hydro The total installed capacity of small hydropower projects is 1423 MW. In addition to these, projects with an aggregate capacity of about 15 MW have been completed using energy recovered from urban, municipal and industrial waste. Energy efficiency and conservation India is alive to the importance of improving the efficiency of energy usage and conservation measures. A Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) has been set up to put into operation, conservation measures such as energy standards, labelling of equipment/appliances, building energy codes, and energy audits. Transport A major initiative has been the upgradation of vehicular emission norms. A norm called the 'Bharat 2000', similar to Euro I norms were implemented throughout the country on 1 April 2000 for all categories of vehicles manufactured in India. Emission standards (Bharat Stage II) for motor cars and passenger vehicles came into force in the national capital region (NCR) on 1.4.2000 and has been extended to Mumbai, Chennnai and Kolkata. Apart from reducing pollution locally, these norms result in increased energy efficiency and therefore reduced GHG emissions. Awareness and training programmes have been undertaken to educate drivers. The commercial manufacture of battery-operated vehicles has begun in India. This will promote low/no carbon emitting vehicles. In Delhi, large-scale switching has taken place from petrol and diesel to compressed natural gas (CNG) with over 50 000 vehicles having already been converted.
Industry This sector has made significant advances in the conservation of energy. Government policies, campaigns by associations of industry and strategic decisions by firms have all contributed to sizeable improvements in the intensity of energy use in industries. Energy conservation in energy-intensive industries Average consumption 1990-91 132 1.255 3351 16,763 425.6 11.27 1994-95 120.5 1.003 3130 16,606 390 8.93
Sector Cement Paper Caustic soda Aluminium Urea Steel (SAIL)
Unit kWh/tonne MWh/tonne kWh/tonne kWh/tonne kWh/tonne Gcal/tonne
The major energy-consuming sectors are: steel, cement, caustic soda, brick, aluminium and electric power generation Measures to improve energy-efficiency include - Promotion of fuel-efficient practices and equipment - Replacement of old and inefficient boilers and other oil-operated equipment - Fuel switching and technology upgradation In the cement industry, specific energy intensities declined from 900 kcal/kg thermal energy to 800 kcal/kg and 120 kWh/tonne electrical energy to 90 kWh/tonne with a shift from low capacity energy inefficient wet plants to a high capacity energy efficient dry process during the 1980s. New Indian plants are among those with the lowest power consumption internationally. In the fertilizer industry, the overall specific energy consumption and capacity utilization of ammonia plants has improved from 14.8 Gcal/mt and 63% respectively, for the year 1979/80 to 10.9 Gcal/mt and 90%, during 1996/97.
Agriculture Some efforts to mitigate climate change in the agricultural sector have also been undertaken. They are: Standardization of fuel-efficient pump sets, rectification of existing pump sets. Rationalization of power tariffs. Better cultivar practices which will help in reducing N2O emissions.
Residential Fuel-efficient equipment/appliances such as kerosene and LPG stoves, compact fluorescent lamps, pumps for lifting water in high-rise buildings are being promoted in the residential sector. Power sector India has a diverse mix of power generation technologies with coal dominating the mix and a significant contribution by large hydro. The graph below shows that the share of gas and renewable energy has increased in the mix of power generation capacity. The share of gas in the power capacity has increased from 2% in 1990 to 6% in 2000.
Power generation capacity (Giga Watt) Reforms in the power sector and targeted technology improvements have helped to enhance the combustion efficiency of conventional coal technology leading to conservation of coal and savings in emissions. Power sector reforms include regulatory restructuring, corporatization, privatization and unbundling of state-owned utilities. The 1998 Regulatory Commissions Act empowers commissions to rationalize electricity tariffs and promote environmentally-benign policies. Corporatization is altering state electricity boards from state ownership and administration to business-like corporations as defined by the Indian Company Act, 1956. The Indian Electricity Act of 1910 and the Electricity Act of 1948 have been amended to permit private participation in the generation and distribution of power. Privatization in transmission has been encouraged by the recognition of exclusive transmission companies.
Afforestation and land restoration The basic components of India's forest conservation efforts include protecting existing forests, putting a check on the diversion of forest land for non-forestry purposes, encouraging farm forestry/private area plantations, expanding the protected area network and controlling forest fires. Forests cover 19.4% of the country's landmass. Forests with a crown cover of more than 40% have been increasing. The National Forestry Action Programme has been formulated for sustainable forest development and to bring one-third of the country's geographical area under forest/ tree cover as mandated in the National Forest Policy, 1988. A major programme of afforestation is being implemented with the people's participation under the Joint Forest Management. The National Forest Policy envisages the participation of people in the development of degraded forests to meet their requirements of fuel wood, fodder and timber. Until 1 September 2000, 10.25 million hectares of forestland had been brought under JFM and 36 165 Village Forest Protection Committees were to be constituted. The protected area network comprises 88 national parks, 490 wildlife sanctuaries and is spread over 15.3 million hectares. Twelve biosphere reserves have been set up to protect representative ecosystems. Management plans are being implemented for 20 wetlands with coral reefs and mangroves being given a priority. The National Wasteland Development Board is responsible for regenerating private, non-forest and degraded land. The National Afforestation and Eco-development Board is responsible for regenerating degraded forest land, land adjoining forests and ecologically fragile areas.
GEF projects
The Global Environment Facility (GEF) helps developing countries fund sustainable development projects that also protect the global environment. Established in 1991, GEF focuses on six planet-wide concerns: biodiversity loss, climate change, international waters, ozone layer depletion, land degradation, and persistent organic pollutants. GEF brings together 166 member governments, leading development institutions, the scientific community, and a wide spectrum of private sector and non-governmental organizations on behalf of a common global environmental agenda. Alternate energy Biomass energy for rural India Coal-bed methane recovery and commercial utilization Development of high-rate biomethanation processes as means of reducing GHG emissions Enabling Activities for the Preparation of India's Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC Energy efficiency Fuel cell bus development in India Optimizing development of small hydel resources in hilly regions Selected options for stabilizing GHG emissions for sustainable development Solar thermal-electric
