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 Hard truths about a Gaza ceasefire

The We speak to Ukraine's top general

Economist
Donald Trump's awful tariff plan
The promise of lab-grown embryoids
NOVEMBER 4TH-10TH 2023

TOO GOOD TO 8[ THU[

The contradiction at the heart of the world economy

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 1B
BLANCPAIN

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Social Media Pakistan 0342-4938217
 Contents The Economist November 4th 2023 5

The world this week United States

7 A summary of political 19 Tax cutters in the states
- and business news 21 GoverningKentucky

Leaders � Governing Mississippi

22 The doctor shortage
9 Global growth
- Too good to be true 23 Crime in DC

10 The Middle East 24 Lexington Gaza, Israel

Why Israel must fight on - and free speech
11 A Trump presidency
- Trade wars: episode II The Americas
11 Lead poisoning 25 The new narco network
- Stop turmeric killing 26 Crumbling Costa Rica
people 28 Venezuela's reality check
On the cover 12 Embryo research 28 Canada's immigrants
The world economy is defying - Coming of age
gravity. That cannot last: 13 Prisons
leader, page 9. Markets think - Trials and errors
interest rates could stay high Asia
for a decade: briefing, page 16 Letters 29 Asia's money-
14 On donating organs, - laundering plague
Hard truths about a Gaza
mental health, the 30 Halloween in Tokyo
ceasefire Unless Hamas's hold
Sagrada Familia basilica,
on power is broken, peace will 31 Death by turmeric
film lengths, James Bond,
remain out of reach: leader, 31 India's smog politics
1 "Star Trek"
page10. lsrael s generals think
32 Banyan India loves Israel
they could be fighting Hamas for
Briefing
a year, page37- Could the peace
process be revived? Page39. 16Interest rates China
The battle against Islamic State - Higher for longer 33 Xi Jinping's view of
in Mosul offers lessons-and - Confucius and Marx
warnings-to Israel, page38. 34 Talks with Bhutan
The culture war over the Gaza
35 Quiet labour activism
war, page50. Escalation would
devastate economic growth in 36 Chaguan Mourning
the Middle East: Free - LiKeqiang
exchange, page 67
Middle East & Africa
We speak to Ukraine's top 37 The long war in Gaza
general An interview on the 38 Urban warfare
breakthrough Valery Zaluzhny
needs to beat Russia, page43 39 The two-state solution
41 Trade and diplomacy
Donald Trump's awful tariff 41 Red berets in Africa
plan His second term would be a 42 Row over Red Sea ports
protectionist nightmare, page 61

The promise of lab-grown

embryoids They increasingly
resemble the real thing, page 68.
Why the rules around
experimenting with embryos
e
Bartleby Job candidates
should be loosened: leader, are not the only ones
page12 prone to exaggeration and
a lack of realism, a e

➔ The digital element ofyour

subscription means that you
can search our archive, read
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►► Contents continues overleaf

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6 Contents The Economist November 4th 2023

Europe Finance & economics

43 An interview with 61 Trump's second term
General Valery Zaluzhny 63 Bank deposits
44 Ukraine's drone wars 64 Buttonwood Investing
45 The woes of France's left - in a third world war
46 Poland's military 65 Treasury issuance
- ambitions 65 Chinese bankruptcies
66 Japan's financial threat
Britain
67 Free exchange War and
47 The prisons crisis the Middle East's economy
48 The covid-19 inquiry
49 Bagehot Labour in power Science & technology
68 Model embryos
69 AI and mining
70 Charity-funded drugs
International
so Gaza culture war
52 The war on social media
Culture
71 TV becoming boring
72 Manet and Degas
73 A surveillance startup
Business 74 Back Story The moral of
"King Lear"
53 America's sour bosses
75 Hong Kong's protests
54 OMV's plastic surgery
75 The Beatles return
SS Bartleby Hiring without
the lying
Economic & financial indicators
56 The future of armsmaking
76 Statistics on 42 economies
57 Israel-DAE commerce
60 Schumpeter Big tech's Obituary
- China puzzle
78 Matthew Perry, a star of "Friends"

-
Volume 449 Number 9370
Published since September 1843 Subscription service
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The world this week Politics The Economist November 4th 2023 7

eight Indian nationals who Somalia since 1970, when a the West in the former Soviet
have been sentenced to death Marxist government national­ Central Asian states. Mean­
in Qatar for spying for Israel. ised the financial system. while, 46 miners died in a fire
The eight men formerly served at a coal mine in Kazakhstan.
in the Indian navy. Li Keqiang, a former prime The mine's operator, Arcelor­
minister of China, died of a Mittal, recently agreed to
An antisemitic mob attacked heart attack, aged 68. From transfer ownership to the
the main airport in Dagestan, 2012 to 2022 Li was the Kazakh government.
a mostly Muslim Russian Communist Party's second­
republic in the North Cauca­ highest-ranking official, but he
sus. Hundreds of men was overshadowed by XiJinp­ Lest we forget
swarmed the area looking for ing, who has consolidated A senior official at the UN told
Israeli ground forces pushed Jewish passengers who had power. Censors have deleted the Security Council that 40%
deeper into Gaza to attack arrived on a flight from Tel many of the online tributes to of Ukraine's population, or
Hamas militants. The Israelis Aviv. Scores of them were Li, fearing they might lead to around 18m people, are in
said they killed one of the arrested after they clashed dissent or demonstrations. need of humanitarian assis­
leaders of the October 7th with police. tance, and that the figure is
terrorist attack and a number
of other Hamas men in an air - Officials in Pakistan said that
tens of thousands of
likely to rise over the coming
winter. Russia is expected
strike onJabalia, north of Gaza The haters Afghans who reside in the once again to focus on knock­
city; the Hamas-run authori­ Attacks on Jewish people and country illegally had obeyed ing out power stations once
ties said scores of civilians had symbols around the world an order to leave ahead of a temperatures start to plum­
died. One of the 240 hostages have risen markedly. Accord­ November 1st deadline. The met. The official said that
held by Ham as, a female ing to the Anti-Defamation Pakistani government issued 9,goo civilians are confirmed
soldier, was rescued by the League, aJewish organisation an order for all illegal to have been killed in the war,
Israelis. Binyamin Netanyahu, in New York, antisemitic migrants, meaning Afghans, to but that the true figure was
Israel's prime minister, reject­ incidents rose in America by go following a wave of suicide­ probably much higher.
ed calls for a ceasefire. He said 388% between October 7th and bombings that it blames on
people who are calling for one 23rd compared with the same Afghan terrorists. Around 1.7m Montenegro got a new
are asking Israel "to surrender period last year. Britain saw an of the 4m Afghans who live in coalition government, follow­
to barbarism". increase of 689% over three Pakistan are there illegally. The ing an election inJune. Miloj­
weeks, according to the Com­ government says it will ko Spajic of the centrist
The humanitarian crisis munity Security Trust, another forcibly expel them if they do Europe Now Movement is the
continued to build in Gaza. Jewish group. Attacks on Mus­ not depart voluntarily. new prime minister. Aged 36
The death toll among Palestin­ lims have also increased. Mr Spajic, a former banker at
ians now exceeds 8,000, Opposition parties in Goldman Sachs, is one of the
according to the authorities in Republicans in America's Bangladesh claimed that the world's youngest leaders.
the enclave. Some 1.4m people House of Representatives police had arrested thousands
have been displaced. Shelters introduced their own bill for of their supporters following Venezuela's Supreme Court
are overflowing. More aid $14-.3bn in emergency aid to clashes at anti-government annulled the opposition's
lorries were allowed in, though Israel, setting up a clash with demonstrations, in which two primaries process, nearly two
their number still fell far short the White House. The Repub­ people died. The protesters are weeks after an overwhelming
of the 500 a day that had been lican bill hives off money for calling for Sheikh Hasina to victory for Maria Corina
entering the area before the Israel from a wider package put resign as prime minister ahead Machado. Ms Machado is a
war started. The first trickle of forward by Joe Biden that of a general election that is due liberal and vocal critic of
civilians left Gaza through the includes extra funding for to take place inJanuary. Nicolas Maduro's autocratic
Rafah border crossing into Ukraine. It offsets this by regime. Mr Maduro had al­
Egypt under a deal negotiated cutting $14.3bn that has been ready barred her from holding
by Qatar. Only foreign nation­ allocated for the Internal office, but it was hoped that
als and the severely wounded Revenue Service under the the lifting of most American
are being allowed to leave. Inflation Reduction Act, Mr sanctions would lead him to
Biden's signature bill. liberalise. In America Repub­
Israel sent missile boats to the licans called for the sanctions
Red Sea to head off potential The main opposition presi­ to be reinstated.
strikes from Yemen, where the dential candidates standing
Houthi militia claimed to have in Congo's general election Saudi Arabia seemed set to
launched rockets and drones next month called for urgent host the football World Cup
at Israel. The Israeli army said measures to prevent manipu­ in 2034, after Australia, the
it had intercepted an "aerial lation of the results. Electoral other potential host, decided
threat". The Houthis are authorities have not published Emmanuel Macron visited not to bid. Questions have
backed by Iran and control voters' roles or lists of polling Kazakhstan, where he praised been raised about how
large parts of Yemen, includ­ stations, malting it difficult to the country's leadership for women will be treated at the
ing the capital, Sana'a. monitor voting independently. not siding with Russia in its tournament (public places are
war on Ukraine. The French segregated). Speculation is
India's government said it Ziraat Katilim, a Turkish bank, president's trip rattled the rife that the Saudis may relax
would explore all legal options has become the first foreign Russians, who are worried a strict prohibition on alcohol
to help secure the release of lender to operate in about the growing influence of by creating "fan zones".

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a The world this week Business The Economist November 4th 2023

The Federal Reserve left its There was also some good Panasonic reduced the profit "adverse impacts" relating to
benchmark interest rate on news for the currency bloc, outlook for its electric-car supply chains and increased
hold again, at a range of though. Annual inflation battery business, blaming a interest rates. The company is
between 5.25% and 5.5%. tumbled to 2.9% in October, slowdown in demand for some writing down $4bn in impair­
Inflation has slowed, but from 4.3% in September. Tesla models. Panasonic has ments. The industry has been
uncertainty remains over the made a big bet on making hit by a storm of problems.
sell-off in the bond market, the China's manufacturing batteries for Evs and operates a General Electric said recently it
oil price and the tight labour industry contracted again in factory with Tesla in Nevada. expects its wind division to
market. The central bank left October, according to the Tesla's share price has fallen lose $2bn over two years.

-
the door open to a rate rise at official purchasing-managers' sharply in recent weeks, as
its next meeting in December. index. On that measure manu­ investors fret that it will sell
facturing has shrunk in six of fewer cars in the future. Thinking, fast and slow
the past seven months. Britain hosted the first global
Stockmarket indices
January 3rd 2023=100
wework is reportedly prepar­ artificial-intelligence sum­
The United Auto Workers ing to file for bankruptcy mit at Bletchley Park, the base
140
NASDAQ composite
union ended its six-week protection. The office-sharing for Alan Turing's band of
130
strike after reaching pay deals company is mired in debt and codebreakers during the
120 with Ford, General Motors and is now worth just tens of mil­ second world war. Attendees
110 Stellantis, the parent company lions of dollars, a far cry from included Kamala Harris, the
-� --- 100
- ·-- of Fiat-Chrysler. All three its valuation of $47bn in Janu­ American vice-president; Wu
Dow Jones industrial average 90 Detroit carmakers have agreed ary 2019, when exuberance Zhaohui, China's vice-minister
I I I I I I I I I I '
to increase workers' pay by about its prospects peaked. of science and technology; and
2023
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
25% over a four-year contract. Elon Musk, the boss of Tesla.
Ford said recently that the Big oil companies reported The conference aimed to ham­
America's stockmarkets all stoppage cost it $1.3bn in bumper quarterly earnings. mer out a set of international
lost ground in October, the operating earnings, GM BP's headline profit came in at rules for the safe and responsi­
third consecutive month of reckoned it was losing $2oom $4.9bn for the third quarter, ble development of AI.
declines and the longest losing a week, and Stellantis said it Chevron made $6.5bn in net
streak since the start of the lost $3.2bn in revenue. income, ExxonMobil $9.1 and X, formerly Twitter, is now
covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Shell $5.8bn. Those were all worth $19bn, according to
The S&P 500 slid by 2.2% dur­ higher than in the previous internal memos reported in
ing the month, the NASDAQ Putting the brakes on quarter, and largely reflect the press. Elon Musk paid
composite by 2.8% and the Meanwhile GM's self-driving rising oil prices from July $44bn for the company when
Dow Jones industrial average car business, Cruise, decided to September. he bought it last year. He has
by 1.4%. Investors are adapting to halt all its robotaxi struggled to turn the platform
to a world of higher interest operations after California Orsted, based in Denmark and into an "everything app". Ever
rates, which reduce the pre­ suspended the service in the the world's largest developer of the optimist, in March Mr
sent value of future earnings. state because of safety con­ offshore wind power, Musk told staff that he saw "a
cerns. Cruise's other markets announced that it was with­ clear, but difficult, path" to
The Bank ofJapan relaxed its include Dallas, Houston, drawing from two projects off achieving a valuation of at
policy of capping long-term Miami and Phoenix. the coast of New Jersey, citing least $25obn.
interest rates for the second
time in three months. It will
now allow the yield on ten­ POSESA
year Japanese government POTE�TIAlLY
bonds to rise above 1%, treat­
ing this level as "a reference"
rather than a strict ceiling.
Ueda Kazuo, the bank's
governor, attributed the deci­
sion to the sharp rise in Amer­
ican Treasury yields. The BOJ
remains the world's only cen­
tral bank to have a negative
policy interest rate, of -0.1%.

The euro area's GDP grew by

just 0.1% in the third quarter,
year on year. Over the previous
three months it shrank by
0.1%, dragged down by Ger­
many's economy, which also
contracted by 0.1%. That was in
part a result of reduced house­
hold spending, but also of
subdued global demand for
Germany's industrial goods.

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 - Leaders 9

Too good to be true

The world economy is defying gravity. That cannot last

E VEN AS WARS rage and the geopolitical climate darkens, the

world economy has been an irrepressible source of cheer.
Only a year ago everyone agreed that high interest rates would
deficits in the region of 5% of GDP in 2023. In the 12 months to
September America's deficit was a staggering $2trn, or 7.5% of
GDP after adjusting for accounting distortions-about double
soon bring about a recession. Now even the optimists have been what was expected in mid-2022. At a time of low unemploy­
confounded. America's economy roared in the third quarter, ment, such borrowing is jaw-droppingly reckless. All told, gov­
growing at a stunning annualised pace of 4.9%. Around the ernment debt in the rich world is now higher, as a share of GDP,
world, inflation is falling, unemployment has mostly stayed low than at any time since after the Napoleonic wars.
and the big central banks may have stopped their monetary When interest rates were low, even towering debts were man­
tightening. China, stricken by a property crisis, looks likely to ageable. Now that rates have risen, interest bills are draining
benefit from a modest stimulus. Unfortunately, however, this budgets. Higher-for-longer therefore threatens to pit govern­
good cheer cannot last. The foundations for today's growth look ments against inflation-targeting central bankers. Already, Ms
unstable. Peer ahead, and threats abound. Yellen has felt obliged to argue that Treasuries carry no risk pre­
The irrepressible economy has encouraged bets that interest mium, and Jerome Powell, the Fed's chairman, has insisted that
rates, though no longer rising rapidly, will not fall by much. Over his bank would never cut rates and let inflation rip to ease pres­
the past week the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve sure on the government's budget.
have held rates steady; the Bank of England was expected to fol­ Whatever Mr Powell says, a higher-for-longer era would lead
low suit shortly after we published this on November 2nd. Long­ investors to question governments' promises both to keep infla­
term bond yields have accordingly risen sharply. America's gov­ tion low and also to pay their debts. The ECB's bondholdings are
ernment must now pay 5% to borrow for 30 years, up from just already becoming skewed towards the Italian government debt
1.2% in the depths of the pandemic recession. Even economies that it tacitly backstops-a task that has become far harder in a
known for low rates have seen sharp increases. Not long ago Ger­ high-rate world. Even when Japanese government-bond yields
many's borrowing costs were negative; now its ten-year bond were a paltry o.8% last year, 8% of Japan's budget went on inter­
yield is nearly 3%. The Bank of Japan has all but given up on its est payments. Imagine the strain if yields reached even Ger-
promise to peg ten-year borrowing costs at 1% many's relatively modest levels. Some govern­
(see Finance & economics section). ments would go on to tighten their belts as a re­
Some people, including Janet Yellen, Ameri­ sult. But doing so may bring economic pain.
ca's treasury secretary, say these higher interest These strains make it hard to see how the
rates are a good thing-a reflection of a world world economy could possibly accomplish the
economy in the rudest of health. In fact, they many things that markets currently expect of it:
are a source of danger. Because higher rates are a dodged recession, low inflation, mighty debts
likely to persist, today's economic policies will and high interest rates all at the same time. It is
fail and so will the growth they have fostered. more likely that the higher-for-longer era kills
To see why today's benign conditions cannot continue, con­ itself off, by bringing about economic weakness that lets central
sider one reason why America's economy in particular has fared bankers cut rates without inflation soaring.
better than expected. Its consumers have been spending the A more hopeful possibility is that productivity growth soars,
cash they accumulated during the pandemic from handouts and perhaps thanks to generative artificial intelligence (AI). The re­
staying at home. Those excess savings were expected to have sulting boost to incomes and revenues would make higher rates
been depleted by now. But recent data suggest households still bearable. Indeed, figures published on November 2nd are ex­
have $1trn left, which explains why they can get away with sav­ pected to show that America's measured productivity surged in
ing less out of their incomes than at any point in the 2010s. the third quarter. The potential of AI to unleash further produc­
When those excess savings buffers have been run down, high tivity gains may explain why higher-for-longer has so far not
interest rates will start to bite, forcing consumers to spend less punctured stockmarkets. Were it not for the rising valuations of
freely. And, as our Briefing explains, trouble will start to emerge seven tech firms, including Microsoft and Nvidia, the S&P 500
across the world economy if rates stay higher for longer. In index of American stocks would have fallen this year.
Europe and America business bankruptcies are already rising;
even companies that locked in low rates by issuing long-term Don't look down
debt will in time have to face higher financing costs. House pric­ Set against that hope, though, is a world stalked by threats to
es will fall, at least in inflation-adjusted terms, as they respond productivity growth. Donald Trump vows swingeing new tariffs
to dearer mortgages. And banks holding long-term secur­ should he return to the White House (see Leader). Governments
ities-which have been supported by short-term loans, includ­ are increasingly distorting markets with industrial policy. State
ing from the Fed-will have to raise capital or merge to plug the spending is growing as a share of the economy as populations
holes blown in their balance-sheets by higher rates. age, the green-energy transition beckons and conflicts around
Fiscal largesse has added to the world economy's sugar rush. the world require more spending on defence. In the face of all
In a higher-for-longer world, it too looks unsustainable. Accord­ this, anyone betting that the world economy can just keep carry­
ing to the IMF, Britain, France, Italy and Japan are all likely to run ing on is taking a huge gamble. ■

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10 Leaders The Economist N ovember 4th 2023

The Middle East

Why Israel Dlust fight on

Unless Hamas's hold on power is broken, peace will remain out of reach

I SRAELI FORCES are entering a hells cape of their own making.

One in ten buildings in Gaza has been pulverised by Israeli air­
craft and artillery. Over 8,000 Palestinians have been killed,
The only way out of the cycle of violence is to destroy Hamas's
rule-which means killing its senior leaders and smashing its
military infrastructure. The suggestion that a war which entails
many of them children. S hortages of fuel, clean water and food, the deaths of thousands of innocent people can lead to peace
imposed by an Israeli blockade, pose a growing threat to the lives will appal many. In the past one act of violence has led to the
of many thousands more (see Middle East & Africa section). next. That is indeed the great risk today.
Around the world the cry is going up for a ceasefire or for Is­ However, while Hamas runs Gaza, peace is impossible. Israe­
rael to abandon its ground invasion. Hearing some Israeli polit­ lis will feel unsafe, so their government will strike Gaza pre­
icians call for vengeance, including the discredited prime min­ emptively every time Hamas threatens. Suffocated by perma­
ister, Binyamin Netanyahu, many people conclude that Israel's nently tight Israeli security and killed as Hamas's human shields
actions are disproportionate and immoral. Many of those argu­ in pre-emptive Israeli raids, Palestinians will be radicalised. The
ing this believe in the need for a Jewish state, but fear for a Jewish only way forward is to weaken its control while building the
state that seems to value Palestinian lives so cheaply. They worry conditions for something new to emerge.
that the slender hopes for peace in this age-old conflict will be That starts with new leadership for both sides. In Israel Mr
buried under Gaza's rubbl e. Netanyahu will be forced from office because he was in power on
Those are powerful arguments, but they lead to the wrong October 7th, and because his reputation for being Israel's staun­
conclusion. Israel is inflicting terrible civilian casualties. I t chest defender is broken. The sooner he goes the better. His suc­
must minimise them and be seen to do so. Palestinians are lack­ cessor will need to win a mandate for a new secu rity doctrine.
ing essential humanitarian supplies. Israel must let a lot more That should involve a plan for peace and reining in Israeli set­
aid pass into Gaza. However, even if Israel chooses to honour tlers, who even now are molesting and killing Palestinians on
these responsibilities, the only path to peace lies in dramatically the West Bank.
reducing Hamas's capacity to use Gaza as a source of supplies The Palestinians need moderate leaders with a democratic
and a base for its army. Tragically, that requires war. mandate. At the moment they have none. That is partly because
To grasp why, you have to understand what Mr Netanyahu boosted Hamas, but also because
happened on October 7th. When Israelis talk Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestin­
about Hamas's attack as an existential threat ian authority, has sidelined potential rivals.
they mean it literally, not as a figure of speech. The question is how to stop Hamas or its suc­
Because of pogroms and the Holocaust, Israel cessor from seizing back control of Gaza before
has a unique social contract: to create a land fresh leaders can emerge from fair elections.
where Jews know they will not be killed or per­ Hence, the second condition for peace: a
secuted for being Jews. The state has long hon­ force to provide security in Gaza. Israel cannot
oured that promise with a strategic doctrine supply it as an occupying power. Instead the
that calls for deterrence, early warnings of an attack, protection strip needs an international coalition, possibly containing Arab
on the home front and decisive Israeli victories. countries that oppose Hamas and its backer, I ran. As we have ar­
Over the past two decades Israel lost sight of the fact that Pal­ gued in previous leaders, creating a coalition that all sides can
estinians deserve a state, too. Mr Netanyahu boosted Hamas to agree on will take committed leadership from the United States
sabotage Palestinian moderates-a cynical ploy to help him ar­ and a leap of faith from the region.
gue that Israel has no partner for peace. Instead, Palestinian suf­ And that leads back to the condition that makes all this pos­
fering became something to manage, with a mix of financial in­ sible: a war to degrade Hamas enough to enable something bet­
ducements and deterrence, kept fresh by repeated short wars. ter to take its place. How Israel fights this war matters. It must
On October 7th Hamas destroyed all this, including Mr Net­ live up to its pledge to honour international law. Not only is that
anyahu's brittle scheme. The terrorists ripped apart Israel's so­ the right thing to do, but Israel will be able to sustain broad sup­
cial contract by shattering the security doctrine created to de­ port over the months of fighting and find backing to foster peace
fend it. Deterrence proved empty, early warning of an attack was when the fighting stops only if it signals that it has changed.
absent, home-front protection failed and Hamas murdered Right now, this means letting in a lot more humanitarian aid and
1,400 people in Israeli communities. Far from enjoying victory, creating real safe zones in southern Gaza, Egypt, or-as the best
Israel's soldiers and spies were humiliated. talisman of its sincerity-in the Negev inside Israel.
The collapse of Israel's security doctrine has unleashed a fe­ A ceasefire is the enemy of peace, because it would allow Ha­
rocious bombardment against the people of Gaza. The reason is mas to continue to rule over Gaza by consent or by force with
an attempt to restore that founding principle. Israel wants its most of its weapons and fighters intact. The case for humanitar­
200, 000 or so evacuees to be able to return home. It wants to ian pauses is stronger, but even they involve a trade-off. Repeat­
show its many enemies that it can still defend itself. Most of all, ed pauses would increase the likelihood that Hamas survives.
it has come to understand that, by choosing to murder Israelis Nobody can know whether peace will come to Gaza. But for
regardless of how many Palestinians will die in Gaza, Ha mas has the sake of Israelis and Palestinians it deserves to have the best
proved that it is u ndeterrable. possible chance. A ceasefire removes that chance entirely. ■

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 The Economist N ove m ber 4th 2023 Leaders 11

America's presidenti a l race

Trade wars: episode II

Donald Trump's tariff plans would inflict grievous damage on America and the world

J approval rating is languishing and Donald Trump

O E B I D E N's
is cruising to the Republican presidential nomination, so it is
wise to consider what another Tru mp term might bri ng. Though
trade deficit every year s i nce 1975 , during which time it has been
the world's pre-eminent economic power. And Mr Tru mp's own
experience shows that ta riffs alone do little to change th e trade
much about Mr Trum p's policy agenda is chaotic, i n one area he deficit. It widened by nearly 25% during his time in office.
is c rystal clear: he wants to raise tariffs . A lot. He has proposed Tariffs do help some manufactu rers. Protected industries
slapping a 10% tariff on all imported goods, thereby treb ling the tend to expand their domestic market share, as steel makers have
country's average and taking American trade protectio nism back since Mr Trump coddled them with tariffs . But at what cost?
to its mid-2oth-century heyday. Sheltered companies can get away with being less efficient than
This is not idle talk. M r Trump's l ieutena nts want to double their global rivals. Other domestic industries suffer: one study
down on the bad bets they pl aced in his pres idency. Robert estimates that steel users paid an outrageous $650, 000 for each
Lighthizer, Mr Tru mp's chief trade negotiator, has proposed a steelmaking j ob created by Mr Tru mp's tariffs. And although Mr
universal tariff that would be as high as is necessary to eliminate Tru mp claims that tariffs are paid for "mostly by China", the bur­
the cou ntry's trade deficit. Peter Navarro, a prickly adviser in Mr den actually falls o n American consumers, via h igher prices . A
Tru mp's White House, has called fo r total reci­ 10% universal levy would cost each American
procity: if any cou ntry has high tariffs o n s pe­ household an average of $2,000 a year.
cific American products, Mr Trump should Last, tariffs will not fix the global trading
match them. Economic populists, meanwhile, system but will make thi ngs worse. Other cou n­
are trying to sell Americans on the merits of all tries would retaliate, as they did during Mr
this. On October 28th the Wa ll Street Jour­ Trump's fi rst rodeo. That would amount to a
nal published an essay by one a rguing "Why global tax on trade, adding to inflation risks.
Tru mp is right about tariffs". In fact, the pol icy The World Trade Organisation would go to the
would not only fail to achieve its goal s, it would brink, having been weakened by American ad­
also inflict grievous harm on America and the world economy. ministrations over the years, i ncluding the present one. And ta­
Mr Trump and his fellow travellers argue that tariffs strike riffs would tea r at America's ties with its allies, undermining at­
three targets: they l ead to a reduction in America's gaping trade tempts to forge supply chains that do not hi nge on China.
deficit, a source (in their view) of economic weakness; they en­ Regrettably, M r Eiden does not have much standing to criti­
courage busi nesses to manufacture at home; and they counter cise Mr Trump on protectionism. His subs idies fo r electric vehi­
the manifest i nj ustice of a global eco nomic system in which cles, wind turbines and more besides discriminate agai nst for­
other countries, especially China, exploit America's openness. eign countries and may end up squandering public money. He
Each of these propositions is bunk. The argu ment that ta riffs has left most of Mr Trump's original tariffs untouched and may
determine the size of the trade deficit is wrong i n both theory reapply levies on European steel as transatlantic talks falter.
and practice. The fundamental driver of the trade balance is That so rry record is all the more reason to fear Mr Trump's
America's low national savings rate, which in part reflects its plans. On trade he has been influential, turning America fro m a
consumer- led economy. Rather than being a sign of fragil ity, its force for free trade into an apologist for protectionism. With a
appetite for imports is proof of its vitality. America has ru n a 10% tariff, that ugly transformation would be complete. ■

Lead poisoning

How to stop turmeric killing people

Developing countries-especially India-should learn from Bangladesh

T plant of the ginger family, has long

U R M E R I C , A FLOW E R I N G
been prized i n Ayu rvedic medic ine for its anti-inflammatory
properties and i n Asian cuisines for its earthy flavour and vi­
it causes-to which children a re especially susceptible-ac­
counted for at least 1.4m deaths in the region in 2019 . The eco­
nomic cost is crippling; that year lead poisoning is esti mated to
brant hue. Haldi, the spice's H i ndi name, is derived from the have lowered South Asian productivity by the equivalent of 9%
Sanskrit for "golden coloured". But fo r the millions of South of G D P . Yet it turns out that with clever policies, enlightened
Asians who habitually consume it, turmeric's skin-staining yel­ leadership and astute messaging this b l ight can be greatly re­
lowness can be deceptive and deadly. duced . Bangladesh has shown how (see Asia section) .
To heighten their colour, the rhizomes from which the spice At the instigation of teams from Stanford University and the
is extracted are routinely dusted with lead chromate, a neuro­ International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangla­
toxin . The practice helps explain why South Asia has the highest desh, a research i nstitute, the country launched a nationwide
rates o f lead poisoning in the worl d . The heart and b rain diseases campaign against turmeric adulteration in 2019. Rules against ►►

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12 Leaders The Economist N ovember 4th 2023

► adulteration were enforced and well-publicised stings carried Bangladesh's response to the problem, if properly under­
out against wholesalers who persisted in it. The prime minister, stood, could work in many countries. Its key elements included
S heikh Hasina, discussed the problem on television. Bangla­ an openness to foreign expertise; effective N Gos; a willingness
deshi bazaars were plastered with warnings against it. Local me­ by the government to work with them; and the formation of an
dia also publicised it. even broader coalition, also including journalists and private
According to newly published data, the country thereby re­ firms, to maximise the effort. This low-cost, co-ordinated and
duced the prevalence of turmeric adulteration in its spice mar­ relentless approach to problem-solving, familiar to admirers of
kets to zero in just two years. That slashed lead levels in the Bangladesh, has underpinned its outstanding development suc­
blood of Bangladeshi turmeric-mill workers by about a third. cess over the past two decades. And Sheikh Hasina deserves
Nationwide, it probably saved thousands of lives. Early analysis credit for it-even though her commitment to such enlightened
suggests that each extra year of healthy life cost a mere $1 to pre­ policymaking appears to be flagging.
serve. Achieving the same benefit through cash transfers is esti­
mated to cost over $800. Leaders and lead poisoning
Other countries where lead poisoning is rife should follow With an election approaching, the world's longest-serving wom­
Bangladesh. Recent estimates suggest a staggering 815m chil­ an prime minister, Bangladesh's ruler for two decades, is grow­
dren-one in three of the global total-have been poisoned by ing more authoritarian and irascible. The importance of the tur­
the metal. According to the Centre for Global Development, a meric campaign should help persuade her to reverse course. As
think-tank in Washington, this disaster explains a fifth of the it shows, the Bangladeshi model rests on organising, collabora­
learning gap between children in rich and poor countries. tion and consensus, not political fiat, and there is much more
The poisoning has many causes . Weak or absent regulators than her legacy riding on it.
permit lead-infused cooking utensils, cosmetics and other pro­ India, whose leader, Narendra Modi, is in the process of driv­
ducts. Yet adulterated turmeric looks like a major culprit almost ing out foreign donors and dismantling any NGO he considers
everywhere, chiefly owing to poor practice in I ndia, which pro­ unfriendly to him, has much to learn from Bangladesh's more
duces 75% of the spice. India was the source of much of the poi­ open, pragmatic approach. The developing world has countless
sonous pigment found in Bangladesh and is estimated to have health and environmental problems that it might help solve. For
the highest incidence of lead poisoning of any country. these many reasons, it should be sustained and widely copied. ■

Embryo research

Co01ing of age
Why the rules on experimenting with embryos should be loosened

W H E N LOUISE BROW N , the first child created through in­

vitro fertilisation, was born in 1978, the idea of creating an
embryo in a dish was very controvers ial . More than 12 m IVF ba­
aborted embryos; four weeks is roughly how long it takes most
women to realise they are pregnant and seek abortions.
It is during this unobserved two-week period that the earliest
bies later, all bar some of the devoutly religious treat the tech­ organs begin to develop. Congenital heart disease, the most
nique as routine. Yet a rule invented in Britain in the 1980s still common birth defect in Britain, affects around one in 150 babies.
determines the sorts of research that can be done in the world's It is caused by abnormal development of the heart, much of
embryology labs. The 14-day rule says that embryos must not be which takes place in the black box. The ability to study embryos
grown in a dish for longer than two weeks after fertil isation. at this stage could lead to new treatments. It might also shed
First suggested in 1984, the rule tries to balance the benefits light on what leads to recurrent miscarriages, a heartbreak fac­
of research with the disquiet about experiment­ ing one in 100 British couples trying for a baby.
ing on things that could potentially develop Loosening the rules might also help the de­
into human beings. It is law in several coun­ velopment of a technology that could in time
tries, including Britain and Canada, and fol­ reduce the need to experiment on embryos at
lowed voluntarily by researchers elsewhere. By all. As we describe in our Science & technology
reassuring doubters that scientists would not section, one of the biggest innovations in
be allowed to act recklessly, the rule has made embryology in recent years is the invention of
human-embryo research less controversial "embryoids". These are made not from a sperm
than it might otherwise have been. and egg but from protean stem cells, which can
But 1984 was a long time ago and later this month Britain's be persuaded to transform into almost any type of tissue.
fertility regulator will seek more flexibility. However, it will not The technology holds great promise, especially for those who
go so far as to scrap the rule. We think that is a mistake, both in still regard research on real embryos as wrong. Embryoids can be
Britain and elsewhere. Four decades of research have shifted the mass-produced in a way that embryos cannot. They lack the
balance of benefits and drawbacks. Regulation s hould change to ability to develop into humans, making them more ethically
reflect this new reality. straightforward. The problem is that, to check that they are accu­
Part of this is that the 14-day limit creates a black box in em­ rate stand-ins, scientists need to compare embryoids with the
bryonic development into which scientists cannot peer. The box real thing. The 14-day rule limits their ability to do that.
opens up again a fter about 28 days, when scientists can study If the rule were scrapped, what might replace it? In 202 1 the ►►

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 The Economist N ove m ber 4th 2023 Leaders 13

► International Society for Stem Cell Research recommended that, not be the case for ever. If they are right, then a case-by-case sys­
if the public agreed , countries should switch to a case-by-case tem could apply strict limits to research i nvolving such cre­
review, in which scientists seek approval for every study they ations without the need for new laws.
wish to run. Unlike a time-based ban, this would be flexible. One obj ection to such a system is that researchers may even­
Regulators could grant permission based on the l i kely benefits tually capture their regulators. But strong feel i ngs around the
of each proposal, public opinion and developments in the field. ethics of embryo research make it unlikely that an overly liberal
This system could be a nalogous to that for animal research , regulator could remain out of step with public opinion for long.
i n which the more human-like a n animal is, the more protection Another worry is that such a system sets off a race to the bottom,
it is given (mice therefore receive less protection than mon­ with unscrupulous resea rchers decamping to the country with
keys) . Similar distinctions could hold fo r embryos and em­ the most pl iant approval committee. Something s i milar could
bryoids, too. Given the availability of abo rted embryos, re­ have happened with the 14-day rule-but it did not.
searchers wanting to culture l ive embryos beyond 28 days might The 14-day rule is a good example of how sensible regulations
have to work harder to convince regul ators that their study can make the world safe for valuable but controversial research.
should go ahead . After four decades it has reached the end of its useful ness. Just as
Although today it is not possible to produce embryoids that a generatio n of test-tube babies now have children of their own,
can develop into live humans, some scientists worry that might so it is time to let embryo research grow up. ■

Prisons

Trials and errors

Britain's entire criminal-justice system i s under strain

N o LON G-TERM planni ng. Disjoi nted decision-making. Ten­

sion between expert advice and pol itical calculation. The
covid-19 inquiry has been the best place this week to see the
probation trusts, each r u n b y a chief p robation officer, from 35 to
12 , accelerating a longer-term trend towards central ised co ntrol
of the service. It worked much better befo re; the MOJ should re­
flaws in Britain's government laid bare. Largely hidden from store l ocal ised control.
public view l ies another: a crisis in the country's prisons. Those Prison overcrowding has also been exacerbated by backlogs
same factors have left some parts of the cri m i nal-j ustice system in the courts. In recent years there has been a huge increase in
close to breakdown (see Britain section) . the number of prisoners awaiting trial on remand. This number
Start with the l ack of lo ng-term planni ng. In October it was surged during the pandemic, but the backlogs have been wors­
revealed that the number of inmates in English and Welsh pri­ ened by problems of the government's own making. Between
sons is j ust a few hu ndred short of their maxi mum capacity. This 2010 and 2019 the Mo]'s budget was reduced by 25% in real terms.
should surprise no one. A lo ng-standi ng push to be tough on The results a re fewer courts, fewer judges and longer delays.
crime has coincided with a more recent imposition of spending Yet even if the probation service is restored to health and
cuts. His Maj esty's Inspectorate of Prisons has repeatedly repo rt­ court backlogs are u nblocked, prisons will remain overcrowded.
ed that jails are overcrowded, squalid and unsafe. The number of The MoJ predicts their population will keep rising, from around
people in jail is nearly double what it was three 88,ooo now to 98 ,700 by 2026. That is in large
decades ago; prison-building has not kept pace. part because of the way that Britai n's politicians
Alarmed by suggestions that judges may choose to treat convicted criminals. Since the
have to stop sending down dangerous crimi­ mid-199os the length of the average prison sen­
nals, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has an­ tence has i ncreased. It is right to lock up those
nounced a number of emergency measures. who commit serious and especially dangerous
Some of these are sensible. But they wil l not crimes, and tough-on-crime policies are popu­
come close to tackling the c risis. That is partly lar with voters. But ever-longer sentences have
because of its scale. But it is also because deci­ unwelcome consequences.
sion-making i n B ritain's government is often contradicto ry and The worst of these are endured by prisoners themselves.
incoherent. Efforts to ease one source of pressure exacerbate dif­ Overcrowding and understaffing mean that i nmates are locked
ficulties elsewhere i n the justice system. up in their cells for most of the day, unable to do any of the
Take the most sensible emergency measure- limiting the things, such as j ob training and cognitive behavioural therapy,
use of short prison sentences i n favour o f community ones. This that would help them l ive productive rather than predatory l ives
has myriad benefits beyond reducing prison numbers. Commu­ on release. Grim conditions l ead to more assaults and suicides
nity sentences result in lower re-offending rates than the brief behind bars. And the strains in the criminal-justice system have
jail sentences given to petty offenders. They are cheaper, too. wider effects, too. Jam-packed jails make it even harder to re­
But more community sentences means more strain on the cruit prison workers, who are already in short supply. And poor­
probatio n service, which is i n terrible shape. Its part-privatisa­ ly run services compromise public safety: when assessing the
tion in 2014, designed to save money, was so disastrous that it risk that criminals pose, probation officers are making domes­
was reversed in 2021. By then , however, many experienced pro­ tic-abuse i nquiries in l ess than half the cases they should be. The
bation officers had left; the service is now recruiting hard to try criminal-justice system has been trying to s pend less and pun­
to replace them. The restructuring also reduced the number o f ish more for years. The circle can no l o nger be squared. ■

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14
Letters The Economist November 4th 2023

- donations and deceased- was a renowned architect in point length really doesn't
Organ-donation econom ics donor-initiated kidney- Barcelona when he was matter much, at least in terms
More than 110,000 Americans exchange chains. appointed as the chief design- of studio economics, even if it
are waiting for an organ ALEX C HA N er for the Sagrada Familia stretches an audience's
transplant and over 5,000 died Assistant professor of basilica in 1883. He completely patience or bladder control.
waiting for an organ in 2019. business administration changed the designs, every- DOU G LAS B OW K E R
Close to 6,000 recovered Harvard University thing from the external Salem, Massachusetts
organs were discarded. Ca mbridge, Massachusetts structure to the details of the
"Wasted organs" (September A LVI N E . ROT H interior, and attracted a group I was among the last to see
23rd) correctly pointed out that Professor of economics of designers, architects and "Titanic". I was sure a bath-
the responsibility lies in part Stanford University craftspeople to work with him room break would be needed
with non-profit Organ Sta nfo rd, Cal iforn ia according to his designs. This for a movie that long and I
Procurement Organisations
and in part with the excessive - continued until his death in
1926 (after being hit by
have wondered why there was
not an intermission. Addition-
caution exercised by Hope on mental health a tramcar). al candy sales would surely
transplant centres when decid- The history of psychiatry is a The construction contin- have resulted.
ing who to conduct transplants history of therapeutic enthusi- ued, exactly according to his C O N N I E E L L I OT
for and which kidneys to use. asm, with all of the tragedy and vision, through extended Studio City, Californ ia
Numerous initiatives in
Congress, and more proposed
triumph, hubris and humility
that such enthusiasm brings
periods of social unrest, a civil
war and a world war. The final -
by various non-governmental ("From tents to hospitals", two towers of the four evange- For your eyes o n ly
agencies, such as the Feder- October 21st). Many of the lists were only recently corn- As mentioned in your review
ation of American Scientists challenges facing mental- pleted and the cathedral is on of Nicholas Shakespeare's
and the National Academies of heath treatment in the United target to finish the tower of biography of Ian Fleming, John
Sciences, Engineering and States are seen elsewhere. In Jesus Christ at the centenary of F. Kennedy listed Fleming's
Medicine, among others, have high-income countries, just Gaudi's death in 2026. This "From Russia, with Love" as
been focused on tweaking how one-third of people with work is not a reconstruction, one of his ten favourite books
the performance of organ depression receive formal or the redevelopment of plans in a 1961 interview with Life
procurers and transplant care. In low-income countries, or the projection of other magazine ("The man with the
centres should be measured the rate of minimally adequate architects onto the plans of golden pen", October 14th).
while keeping in place the treatment is 3%. Gaudi. The basilica will look as What may also be of interest to
system that put us in today's Neuroscientific progress is it did in the original plans your readers is that the Life
quagmire. As we indicate in glacial, but there are reasons envisioned by Gaudi. article began with an agitated
our recent paper (conditional- for hope. Despite our rudi- J . M . I N N ES Kennedy asking his secretary
ly accepted at the Jou rnal of mentary understanding of the Visiting fellow about the late delivery of the
Political Economy) , such brain, we have treatments that Churchill College, Cambridge latest issue of The Economist.
approaches that keep work, including psychological A few paragraphs (and
regulations fragmented are therapies and antidepressants. reminders) later, our hero
bound to be inefficient, given Antipsychotic medication is About ti me sallies forth to his waiting
that the incentives and oppor- associated with longer life in "Movie marathons" (October helicopter the next day, said
tunities facing organ procurers schizophrenia. Globally, the 21st) explained how films issue of The Econom ist safely
and transplant centres are suicide rate declined by a third today are on average 24 % tucked under his arm.
intertwined. between 1990 and 2016. This longer than in the 1930s, and A LO K MO H A N
We show that "holistic dramatic improvement in pointed to competition from D ubai
regulation", which aligns the
interests of organ procurers
global public health does not
mean the work is done (even a
streaming and the growing
clout of big-name directors as -
and transplant centres by single suicide is one too possible reasons. But there is a H ighly i l logical
rewarding them based on the many), but it shows that posi- much more practical factor: I think Schumpeter was a bit
health outcomes of the entire tive change is possible. costs have come down because premature in predicting the
patient pool, can get at the root B R E N DAN KE L LY of digital capture and digital demise of the hand-held
of the problem. This approach Professor of psychiatry projection. Every extra foot of device (October 7th). One only
also leads to more organ recov- Trinity College Dublin film in older movies cost mon- needs to watch Captain Kirk
eries while increasing the use
of organs for sicker patients - ey. It also cost a great deal for
the initial capture and <level-
flip open his communicator in
"Star Trek" to realise such
who otherwise would be left A church becomes art opment, and editing was slow devices will obviously remain
without a transplant. The completion of unfinished and tedious. The average reel indispensable, even in
In the end increasing access work by a dead artist raises of finished film was around the 23rd century.
to kidney transplantation will interesting questions about one hour and 20 minutes. G REG N O L E
require the improvement of authorship and merit ("Sort of Every cinema in America Cheshire, Con necticut
the entire supply chain of by Sondheim", October 21st). In needed six reels of film, all of
organs. This means boosting architecture, the work of which required costly printing
donor registrations and donor Antoni Gaudi i Cornet shows and shipping. Today, even if a Letters a re welcome a nd sho u ld be
recoveries from the deceased. how the creativeness, vision film is captured on film stock, add ressed to the Ed ito r at
The Econom ist, The Adelphi B u i ld ing,
It also means increasing living and craft of a genius can live 99% of the final projection will 1-11 John Ada m Street, London WC2N 6 H T
donations, and co-ordinating on and be completed accord- be from a digital scan. At most, Email: letters@economist.com
donations through mecha- ing to his original designs 100 this means a hard drive More letters are availa bl e at:
Economist.corn/letters
nisms like paired kidney years after his death. Gaudi shipped to the cinema. At that

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Executive focus 15

The Internationa l Insti tu te for S tra tegic Studies

Executive Director, I ISS-Asia (Si nga pore)

The I nternationa l I n stitute for Strateg ic Stud ies ( I I SS) is the world's l eading independent a uthority on g lo ba l secu rity issues, p rovid i n g i nformation and
ana lysis on a wide ra nge of i n ternational sec u rity a n d geopo litica l risk q u estions. The I nstitute conducts research on the problems of confl i ct, however
ca used, t hat may have a significa nt mi l i tary d i mension, and analyses i nternationa l trends, i nc l ud i n g econo m ic deve lopments, which may h ave strateg ic
i m p l ication s. The I nstitute convenes h ig h-level conferences and events t h at bri ng toget her govern ment offici a l s, recogn ised experts, opi n ion-formers and
busi ness leaders at the most senior level, i n order to en h ance di plomatic excha nges a n d to enable the crafting of more effective po licy on strategic matters.
The I ISS is head qua rtered in London and has inte rnationa l offices in Singa pore, Ba h ra in, Berl i n, and Was h i ngton DC.
The I nternation a l I n stitute for Strateg ic Stud ies (Asia) Ltd [I ISS-Asia] in Sing apore is see k i ng to a ppoi nt an e nergetic, sen io r figure as its new Executive
Director. The post wi l l be ava i la ble fro m 1 M a rch 2024. As Executive Director, t h e successfu l candidate wi l l be responsible for l ead ing the I I SS-Asia offi ce
that plays a centra l role i n orga n i si ng the a n n u a l I I SS S h a ng r i-La Dia log ue; it also convenes the I I SS Shangri-La Dialogue S herpa Meeting a n d the I I SS Raffles
Lectu res. Resea rc h staff at I I SS-Asia conduct work o n I nda-Pacific defence a nd strategy; Sout hea st Asia n po litics and foreign po licy; and cyber power and
futu re co nfl ict.
Can d idates for the post of Executive D i rector s h ou ld have su bsta ntial working experience relevant to Asia n security affa irs in the expert com m un i ty,
govern ment, t h e med ia or business. They shou ld idea l ly h ave a strong record of po l icy-releva nt publ ication, as wel l a s d i pl omatic s ki l ls, experience of
i n stitutio nal leaders h i p a n d success in fu n d raisi ng. They s ho u ld be a ble confidently to co nduct d i scussions with t h e h ig h est levels of govern ment and
busi ness, w h i l e at the same ti me leading and worki ng c losely with t he d i verse, international tea m of resea rch and operational staff at I I SS-Asia.
Can d idates m ust be fu lly com petent i n spoken a n d written E n g l i s h, a n d wil l preferably possess a working know ledge of at least o ne Asia n language. The
successfu l ca nd idate s hou ld h o ld a postgrad uate degree a nd, idea l ly, w i l l a l ready h ave experience of l iving and wo rki ng in Si ngapore or e l sewhere in Asia.
Clos i ng date for appl ications i s 30th Novem ber 2023. Ca n d idates s hou ld su bmit thei r appl ications visiting https:/www.iiss.org/careers a nd fo l lowi ng t h e
i n structio ns to s u b m it:
• A cover letter
• A fu l l Cu rricu l u m Vitae (resu me) which i ncludes the names and contact deta i l s of two potentia l refe rees.
Th i s a ppointment wi l l be ava ilable from 1 sr M a rch 2024 for a fixed term of four years a nd may be con sidered for renewa l at t h e end of t h e contract. The
sa l a ry offered wi l l be com petitive and wil l be accom pa n ied by benefi ts including hea l th i ns u ra n ce, l ife i ns u ra n ce and contrib utory pension a rrangements.
The I ISS is an eq ual opportun i ties e m p loye r.

u e ST 976
ci glo 11 r 1
C 2
C
C d1 0 I U 0 T

lo @i C .i c. 0)20 7256 5 0 5

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16
Briefing I nterest rates a nd th e wo rld eco n o my The Economist November 4th 2023

The conviction that rates will remain

"higher for longer" is spreading around the
world. The euro zone saw negative interest
rates in 2021; now Germany must pay near­
ly 3% to borrow for a decade. Britain's bond
yields are nearly as high as America's. Even
Japan, whose apparently permanently low
rates were seen as a harbinger for the rest
of the world, has faced upward pressure on
its bond yields (see chart 1 on next page).
Bets that its central bank will have to raise
interest rates in 2024 for the first time
since 2007 are mounting.
If markets are right, a new era is begin­
ning and the consequences will be far
reaching. Households and companies will
have to pay much more to borrow. The fi­
nancial system will have to adjust to a
painful new reality. And governments will
find they have to divert more tax revenue
to pay the interest on their accumulated
debt. The higher-for-longer scenario that
many investors are now predicting is a po­
tentially toxic mix.
Start with the real economy. One of the
surprises of the past year is how resilient
the world economy-and particularly
America-has been in the face of higher
rates. On October 26th it was revealed that
America's G D P grew at an annualised pace
of 4.9% in the third quarter. Consumer
spending has been supported by the excess
savings households built up thanks to the
lockdowns and stimulus payments of the
covid-19 pandemic. Many firms issued
long-term debt when rates were low, and
so continue to enjoy low financing costs
today. Net interest payments by America's
companies have actually fallen this year,
because the interest they earn on the cash
they keep to hand has risen faster than the
cost of servicing their debts.
These protective buffers will last for a
while yet. In September statisticians re­
vised up the estimate of savings accumu­
lated during the pandemic, which had pre­
viously looked like they were on the verge
Higher for longer of exhaustion. It now appears that Ameri­
ca's households are still sitting on about
$1trn of excess cash, equal to nearly 5% of
annual personal income in aggregate. It
will also take time for higher rates to slow
companies down. Goldman Sachs, a bank,
N EW Y O R K
estimates that just 16% of America's cor­
porate debt will mature over the next few
Markets think interest rates could stay high for a decade.
years. Refinancing it will lift the average
The consequences could be grim
interest rate on the total stock of debt from

N ago, as interest rates in the

OT LO N G
rich world hovered near zero, econo­
mists debated whether their downward
since 2007. The 30-year Treasury yield
crossed 5% the same day. Analysts at Bank
of America may have sounded a little
4.2% this year to just 4.5% in 2025.
Not all companies are resilient to high­
er rates, however. Smaller American firms,
march was the product of a decades-, cen­ breathless when they declared last month whose debts typically fall due sooner than
turies- or millennia-long trend. Now the that rates were "coming off 5,000-year those of big ones, are under strain even
burning question is how long they will stay lows". But that is indeed how it feels to though the economy is booming. There
high. On October 18th the ten-year Treasury economists, investors and anyone in the and in Europe, where growth is weaker,
yield, which incorporates long-term ex­ uncomfortable position of servicing debts corporate bankruptcies are rising (see
pectations for interest rates and was below they incurred when almost everyone ex­ chart 2). In some economies firms are
1% as recently as 2021, hit 4.9%, its highest pected rates to be low for ever. much more exposed to rising rates: at the ►►

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 The Econom ist N ovem ber 4th 2023 B riefi ng I nterest rates a nd the worl d eco n o my 17

► end of 2021 the median maturity of Spanish Treasuries from 1. 5% at the end of 2021 to there are $2.5trn of unrealised losses, with
and Italian businesses' debts was only 2.6 around 3 . 5% a year later drove down the about two-thirds at such banks.
years and 2.1 years respectively. In Sweden, value of a broad index of Treasury bonds by There are other sources of financial vul­
where corporate debt is an eye-watering about 10%. That inflicted over $6oobn of nerability, too. Commercial property loans
155% of G D P, the average effective interest losses on American banks, the most vul­ make up around a tenth of bank assets, and
rate on outstanding bank loans to compa­ nerable of which-Silicon Valley Bank and the value of office buildings has collapsed
nies rose from 1. 5% to 3 . 9% in the year to First Republic-suffered runs and failed. owing to higher interest rates and lower
March and will be higher still by now. In The crisis was eventually forestalled by the occupancy. Some owners have simply
September the number of corporate bank­ Federal Reserve offering to lend to banks handed the keys to lenders. What is more,
ruptcies was 14 % higher than a year earlier. against the face value, rather than the mar­ much lending has migrated in recent years
Were rates to reach a permanently high­ ket value, of their Treasuries, easing the from banks to other sorts of financial insti­
er plateau, even long-dated debt would pressure on their balance sheets. tutions, such as pension funds and insur­
eventually start to cost companies dear. But in a higher-for-longer world, the ance firms. They have never gone through
That would be painful because during the crisis could return. The last loans under a cycle of rising rates as big lenders before.
2010s firms borrowed heavily: America's the Fed's new lending scheme are to be Although the dispersal of risk is in princi­
non-financial corporations issued a net made in March. Even if it is extended, ple helpful, it also means a greater number
$4.1trn in debt over that decade while retir­ banks may find themselves unable to af­ of firms face potential losses.
ing a net $3.2trn of equity through divi­ ford to pay the interest on the Fed loans Last, consider the vulnerability of gov­
dends and buy-backs. In advanced econo­ (which is similar to prevailing short-term ernments. After the global financial crisis,
mies as a whole, corporate debt is around rates and so has been rising steadily). rich countries' public debts surged to the
93% of G D P, up from less than 80% in the And it is not just Treasuries whose mar­ highest level since 1946. Since the pandem­
mid-2ooos, according to data from the ket value falls when rates rise. More or less ic they have been larger, relative to G DP,
I M F . If rates stay higher for longer, this bor­ any loan paying a fixed return over a medi­ than at any time since the Napoleonic wars
rowing binge may need to be unwound. A um-to-long duration will follow the same (see chart 3 on next page). The sustainabil­
long period of deleveraging could there­ pattern. Erica Jiang, Gregor Matvos, To­ ity of these massive debts depends not just
fore inhibit investment in the 2020s, just masz Piskorski and Amit Seru, a group of on interest rates, but on how those rates
as low growth inhibited it in the 2010s. economists, undertook an analysis that compare with economic growth. In the
valued all the assets of American banks at low-rate era it became fashionable to note
Home is where the hurt is the market prices that prevailed in March that if G D P expands faster than interest ac­
Households, too, will eventually find that and then tested to see what would happen crues, then a government's debt-to-G DP ra­
higher rates bite. In America and some if half or all of their uninsured depositors tio can shrink even as it borrows afresh to
European countries interest rates on mort­ withdrew their savings. They found that, pay its interest bill. It may even be able to
gages can be fixed for decades, which pro­ even under the less apocalyptic scenario, borrow more still to fund extra spending
tects borrowers from rate rises as long as some 200 or so banks, with col lective as­ while keeping its debt-to-G D P ratio stable.
they do not move house. But house prices sets of $3oobn, would potentially be insol­ In October the I M F projected that, be­
are likely to fall, because they depend vent. Another paper, by Mark Flannery and tween 2023 and 2028, the economic growth
mostly on buyers who borrow afresh, and Sorin Sorescu, two more economists, con­ rate in advanced economies will continue
therefore face much higher costs. On Octo­ cluded, "If all unhooked losses were fully to exceed the interest rate their govern­
ber 18th Mortgage News Daily, a data pro­ reflected in bank balance sheets, roughly ments pay on their debts, by 1.4 percentage
vider, reported that the average 30-year half of all banks, holding roughly half of all points on average, despite recent rate rises.
fixed-rate mortgage in America carried an bank assets, would not meet their mini­ The reason is that governments, like com­
interest rate of 8% for the first time since mum regulatory capital requirements." panies, have locked in low rates to some
2000. As a result the monthly payment re­ Since March the bond index has fallen degree by issuing long-term debt.
quired to buy the median American home by 5% more. Ms Jiang and her co-authors Yet debt-to-GD P ratios are mostly set to
with a mortgage worth 90% of the proper­ have repeated their analysis. They find that rise anyway, because many governments
ty's value is now nearly 60% of average unrealised losses have climbed modestly, continue to run excessive deficits. America
earnings, up from 33% inJuly 2021. but are now concentrated at bigger banks. especially is borrowing with abandon:

-
It strains credulity to think that hous­ In March only some 30% of the $2.2trn of strip out accounting distortions and its
ing markets can sustain such ratios. Ac­ these losses were at banks labelled "sys­ deficit for the past year was 7. 5% of G D P, ac­
cording to the Bank for International Set­ temically important" by regulators. Now cording to the Committee for a Responsi- ►►
tlements, real house prices in 12 advanced
economies fell by 10% between the start of
2022 and the second quarter of 2023. A rising tide and sinking ships
Should rates follow the path implied by
markets, real house prices should fall by Te n-yea r government-bond yiel ds, % Ban kru ptcies, % change on a yea r ea rl ier*
another i4 % by the end of 2025. In a scenar­
5 40
io in which interest rates stabilise slightly
above their current level, the peak-to­ 4 Eu ro a rea 20
trough fall in real house prices would reach
3
35%. For comparison, the fall prompted by 0
the global financial crisis was 13%. 2
Next, consider the implication of high­ -20
er rates for the financial sector. Traders of­
-40
ten joke that interest rates go up until 0
something breaks. In the spring of 2023 busi nesses
-1 -60
something did: banks. They own lots of I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
2022 2023 201 9 20 21 22 23
government bonds, which lose value as Sou rces: Refinitiv Datastrea m; Eu rostat; U n ited States Cou rts *Years ending J u ne 30th
rates rise. The jump in the yield of ten-year

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18 Briefing I nterest rates a nd the world econ omy The Economist N ove m ber 4th 2023

► ble Federal Budget, a think-tank. Deficits rate era of the 2010s made the economy less
that high are typically seen only during dynamic. "It was easy for relatively ineffi­
wars or catastrophic recessions. The Econo­ cient companies to stay afloat, so there
m ist calculated the fiscal adjustments that wasn't much creative destruction," says
advanced economies would need to make Kristin Forbes of M I T. In a higher-rate
to keep their debts stable, given the I M F's world underpinned by faster growth, there
projections. In every big advanced econ­ would be plenty of dynamism.
omy bar Germany and Japan, belt-tighten­ Alas, there is a more worrying explana­
ing is needed to stop the debt-to-G DP ratio tion for higher rates: that government debt
from rising further. America would have to has grown so large that it has sopped up the
trim its primary budget deficit-ie, its def­ world's surplus savings, leaving the private
icit excluding interest on its debt-by an sector to compete for the scraps. In the
annual 2.4 % of G D P. Such parsimony will short term, many traders blame the ava­
be especially difficult given the extra lanche of debt issuance since the pandem­
spending that is needed to cope with age­ ic, as well as the unwinding of big bond
ing populations, the climate crisis and ris­ purchases at central banks, for rising bond
ing geopolitical tensions-the annual bill yields. Economists often pooh-pooh the
for all of which, the I M F estimates, will add significance of existing bonds changing
up to about 7.5% of G D P in rich countries. hands, but they do think the size of the out­
What is more, in a higher-for-longer standing stock of debt matters. A rule of
world governments, like companies, must Yet it would explain why the prospect of thumb proposed in 2019 by Larry Summers
refinance eventually. Ten-year yields are higher-for-longer has not caused stock­ of Harvard University and Lukasz Rachel,
now above plausible estimates of long-run markets to fall much. In theory, higher then at the Bank of England, is that a ten­
growth in most rich economies. That bond yields should reduce the value of percentage-point increase in debt-to-G DP
means much more belt-tightening could companies' future earnings, an effect that raises interest rates by 0.35 percentage
be needed to keep debts from rising. It is bites hardest for technology firms, since points in the long run, while every per­
hard to escape the conclusion that, on cur­ they tend to promise jam tomorrow. In centage point increase in deficits raises
rent growth forecasts, higher-for-longer fact, as optimism about A I has spread, the rates by a similar amount. That would im­
would force governments into another value of big tech firms such as Microsoft ply that spendthrift governments have
round of painful budget-balancing like and Nvidia has soared. Their rising value contributed to today's high rates.
that suffered by Europe in the 2010s. If up­ has kept the cyclically adjusted price-earn­ To the extent government debt is to
heaval in the finance industry prompts ex­ ings ratio of the s & P 500 at around pre­ blame for "higher-for-longer", then the
pensive bail-outs, the fiscal outlook would pandemic levels, even though bond world economy will have to deal with high­
become yet bleaker. yields-and hence the rate used to dis­ er rates without any accompanying fil lip to
count future profits-are now much high­ growth. That would be painful. "You can't
There is always cope er. And America's strong growth in the really take the view that deficits will con­
Can the world economy cope with cor­ third quarter was not driven by an unusual tinue to push interest rates up and will also
porate deleveraging, falling house prices, jobs boom; in fact, the labour market is continue unchecked," says Maurice Obst­
turmoil at banks and fiscal frugality? Sur­ cooling. If the growth number is accurate, feld of the Peterson Institute for Interna­
prisingly, the answer is, perhaps-if rates productivity must have risen. tional Economics "Something's got to give,
have risen for the right reason. Economists To the extent that productivity growth whether it's a more restrictive fiscal policy
typically think that interest rates are deter­ explains higher rates, the new era could be or some sort of debt crisis."
mined in the long term by the balance be­ a happy one. Alongside the rise in debt-ser­ Other than a fiscal crisis, how could the
tween the world's desire to save and to in­ vice costs, households will have higher real tension be resolved? One possibility is that
vest. All else equal, more saving pulls incomes, firms will have higher revenues, persistently high inflation could erode the
down the so-called "natural" rate of inter­ financial institutions will enjoy low de­ real value of government debts, as it has in
est; more investment pushes it up. The fault rates and governments will collect the past after moments of economic cri­

-
most popular explanation for the rock-bot­ more tax. Healthy competition for capital sis. In that case, though nominal interest
tom rates of the 2010s was that ageing pop­ might even bring benefits of its own. Some rates might be higher-for-longer, the real
ulations were stashing away more money economists long suspected that the low- interest rate would not have risen as much.
for retirement, while insipid long-term Companies and governments would sur­
growth prospects had sapped companies vive high rates because their incomes
of the desire to expand-a phenomenon B i nge of the century would be strong in cash terms. Relative to
sometimes called "secular stagnation". G ross govern m ent debt as % of G DP the high real yields they expect today,
For rates to have shifted permanently, Advan ced econom ies bondholders would be squeezed.
that outlook must have changed. One pos­ 1 25 Another possibility is that high rates
sible reason it might have is the anticipa­ push the world economy into a recession,
tion of faster economic growth, driven, 1 00 which in turn causes central banks to cut
perhaps, by recent advances in artificial in­ them. In line with this thesis, on October
75
telligence (AI). In the long term, growth 23rd Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capi­
and interest rates are intimately linked. 50 tal announced that his fund was no longer
When people's incomes rise over time, betting that rates would keep rising, push­
they have less need to save. Companies, ex­ 25 ing down the value of Treasuries. "There is
pecting higher sales, become keener to in­ F'CAST too much risk in the world to remain short
O
vest. Central banks have to keep rates high­ bonds at current long-term rates," he
1 800 50 1 900 50 2000 28
er to stop economies from overheating. wrote. "The economy is slowing faster than
*Si mple average, 22 coun tries tweighted average, 41 co untries
I t might seem farfetched to say that op­ Sou rces: Reinhart a n d Rogoff, 2009 and u pd ates; I M F
recent data suggests." If he is right, higher
timism about A I is pushing up bond yields. may not be for that much longer. ■

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 united States The Economist November 4th 2023 19

Taxes in at least four decades. But the most ag­

Cut chemists
gressive, and potentially the most perma­
nent, moves have been cuts to income tax­
es, and Iowa has been at the forefront of
these efforts. "You have to continually be
looking for opportunities to be competi­
tive, and our constituents are the winners
D E S M O I N ES
in that competitive environment," says
States are cutting taxes more than at any time in a generation. What
Mrs Reynolds.
happens next?
The key factor enabling the tax-cutting

I OWA I S ACC U S TOM E D to the national po­

litical spotlight as the first state that Re­
publican hopefuls vie to win when seeking
Idaho, are shifting to a flat tax. And a few
others such as Arkansas and Mississippi
want to eliminate their income taxes alto­
zeal is that states are flush with cash-a
striking contrast with the federal govern­
ment, which is saddled with gargantuan,
their party's nomination for the White gether, j oining the likes of Florida and Tex­ growing deficits (see briefing) . States are in
House. What is more unusual is that this as which have none. a different position to begin with, because
small midwestern state now also finds it­ It is not just a Republican trend. Virtu­ most are required by law to balance their
self in the national economic spotlight. For ally all states, regardless of political make­ budgets each year. During 2020 that turned
conservative politicians and commenta­ up, have lowered their citizens' tax bills into a headwind for their budgets: they had
tors, Iowa has emerged as America's tax­ since 2021, deploying a mixture of one-off braced for a long, difficult stretch but in­
cutting champion, a paragon of fiscal re­ rebates, credits for families and outright stead notched up record-setting revenue
sponsibility. To critics it looks more like an cuts to property and sales taxes. Overall, growth in 2021 and 2022, owing in large
example of economic recklessness. these have been equivalent to a roughly part to the economy's rapid recovery.
Either way, Iowa is playing an outsized $ 3obn decline in states' tax revenues dur­ Tax receipts have fared less well over
role in a bigger debate about how American ing this time, the steepest such reduction the past year, but 45 states have still man­
states ought to manage their revenues and aged to collect more revenues than they
spending. Until a few years ago it had one had budgeted for, according to the Nation­
of the highest income-tax rates in America. ➔ Also in this section al Association of State Budget Officers, a
By 2026 it will be down to a flat tax of 3 . 9%, nonpartisan organisation. Although a
21 Governing Kentucky
with designs on more cuts. "Ultimately I'd handful, including California, have swung
like to get as close to zero as I can," says 21 Governing Mississippi to deficits, most are still on track for sur­
Kim Reynolds, Iowa's hard-driving gover­ pluses this year. Moreover, the strong in­
22 The artificial doctor shortage
nor. Iowa is far from alone. Some 25 states, flows of the past three years have padded
from Arizona to New Hampshire, have cut 23 Crime and governance in DC the buffers. States have amassed rainy-day
individual income taxes over the past three funds worth about $15 5bn collectively,
24 Lexington: Gaza, Israel and speech
years. A handful, including Georgia and about double their pre-covid level. ►►

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20 United States The Economist N ove m ber 4t h 2023

► This has set up states for what, on the mining the services that they provide, no­ of the reductions in income taxes have
surface, looks like the fiscal equivalent of a tably education and health care (states are been fairly modest: the median top rate for
free lunch. They are using their surpluses big funders of Medicaid, medical insur­ states has gone from 5 . 4 % in 2020 to 5%
to pay for their tax cuts and are still bring­ ance for low-income families) . Grover Nor­ this year, according to the Tax Founda­
ing in more than enough revenues to meet quist, long America's most outspoken anti­ tion. Iowa, on the other hand, has been
their budgetary commitments. "Every sin­ tax activist, thinks state treasuries should more radical. Not only has its top rate gone
gle time since we've cut taxes, revenues cap expenditure growth at the rate of popu­ from 9% to 3 . 9 % , it is shifting to a flat levy
have still come in higher than estimates," lation growth plus inflation, which would that represents a dramatic simplification
says Jack Whitver, the Republican Senate effectively peg per-person spending at cur­ of the tax code. Iowa previously had nine
majority leader in Iowa. Were the economy rent levels in real terms. That sounds like a separate income-tax brackets, plus a thick­
to fall into a recession, treasurers would be reasonable formula. The trouble, however, et of exemptions, all of which are now be­
able to dip into their rainy-day funds to is that education, health care and transport ing scrunched into one single tax rate for
plug any shortfalls. "These are not states tend to experience higher inflation than all. The knock against flat taxes is that they
that are having difficulty in making ends other parts of the economy. Capping gov­ aggravate inequality, doing away with the
meet," says Katherine Loughead of the Tax ernment spending at the general inflation redistribution of income that is baked into
Foundation, a think-tank . pace would almost certainly necessitate a graduated tax system. Mr Owen estimates
real cuts to schools, medical insurance and that about half of the direct savings from
The first cut road works. Iowa's shift to a flat tax will flow to the rich­
Where things get more contentious is ac­ Even without making outright cuts, est 5% in the state. Mrs Reynolds is unapol­
counting for why state budgets are so states may be forgoing opportunities to ex­ ogetic: "We've got to stop punishing suc­
strong, and whether this strength can last pand their current offerings, says Wesley cess, we should reward it."
after they slash taxes. Politicians naturally Tharpe of the Centre on Budget and Policy
love to take credit for their surpluses as ev­ Priorities. In Nebraska, for instance, the re­ Is the steepest
idence of their sound fiscal management. sulting revenue loss from its income-tax Another group may benefit from Iowa's re­
In fact they were beneficiaries of the covid cuts of the past three years is about the forms: economists. Those wanting to
economy in two ways. First, federal trans­ same as its annual spending on Medicaid, study the effects of tax cuts have a natural
fers soared to help states cope with the dis­ he notes. Iowa's shift to a flat tax will be experiment because Iowa happens to share
ruption. In 2022 federal grants to state and phased in over the next few years, so its im­ a border with Minnesota, one of the few
local governments reached $1. 2trn, about pact will only be truly felt in 2028, when states moving sharply in the opposite di­
70% more than in 2019 . Technically, states the state's nonpartisan legislative agency rection. Democrats in power there have
were barred from using any emergency co­ estimates that the various cuts will cause pursued one of America's most left-wing
vid relief to fund tax cuts. In practice mon­ an estimated $1. gbn decline in fiscal rev­ policy agendas seen in recent years. Rather
ey is fungible and state treasurers are mas­ enues, putting them roughly 20% below than converting their fiscal surpluses into
ters of creative accounting. their prior trend. "Som ething has got to across-the-board tax cuts, they have rapid­
Second, inflation has flattered their give, whether it's education or health care ly increased spending levels. In Minneso­
books, and continues to do so. Rising pric­ or something else. A crash is coming," says ta's latest biennial budget, expenditures
es augment governments' nominal tax re­ Mike Owen of Common Good Iowa, a non­ are 38% higher than in its previous one, a
ceipts and higher wages push people into profit group opposed to the tax cuts. Mr record increase. The state has showered
higher income-tax brackets, says Lucy Da­ Whitver is more sanguine: "I don't think it money on schools, roads, housing and
dayan of the Tax Policy Centre, a think­ has to be one or the other. We can continue more. It has also tried to make its tax sys­
tank. At the same time, states' nominal ex­ to make investments where investments tem more progressive: a new "millionaire
penditures are limited by their annual are needed, and continue to cut taxes." tax" raises rates for the wealthiest Minne­
budgets. This year, for example, states have In the meantime, with so many states sotans, while lower-income residents will
budgeted for a roughly 2 . 5 % increase in cutting taxes, there is also a question about benefit from a range of tax rebates.
spending. Factoring in the prevailing infla­ how best to structure the reductions. Most Beyond differences in their fiscal and
tion rate, that will amount to a small cut in economic trajectories, much attention will
real spending. focus on whether Iowa or Minnesota does
Critics are quick to point to Kansas's better at attracting new residents and new
bruising experience with deep income-tax investment. Over the past decade, Ameri­
cuts in 2012 and 2013 . Described by the go­ ca's low-tax states, notably Texas and Flori­
vernor at the time as a "shot of adrenalin" da, have generally been its fastest grow­
for the economy, the state instead ended ers-in terms of both population and eco­
up with slower growth and weaker fiscal nomic size. That has been about much
revenues, leading it to reduce funding for more than taxes, with warm weather and
schools. In 2017 it reversed its tax cuts. Ad­ relatively low housing costs also crucial
vocates for tax cuts counter that Kansas is parts of the equation.
an unfair example, given that many other Iowa will be a tougher test case for the
states have reduced taxes over the years benefits of lower taxes. For years it has had
without such dire outcomes. In any case, relatively little population growth. Mrs
most of the tax cutters this time around are Reynolds thinks the state can now turn its
proceeding carefully. "I am not going to be luck around. "We're building the right kind
the governor that has to turn around and of environment for people and business­
raise taxes, so I use very conservative pro­ es," she says. I f a landlocked state known
jections," says Mrs Reynolds. Iowa's primarily for corn and presidential races
planned expenditures are about 15% less can manage to do that, all while keeping its
this year than its expected revenues. schools, hospitals and roads in good shape,
But it will be hard for states to deliver it will be a tax-cutting triumph. I f not, it
such restrained budgets without under- may instead end up a cautionary tale. ■

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 The Econom ist N ove m ber 4t h 2023 U n ited States 21

Gove rn i ng Kentu cky Govern i ng M ississi ppi

The other derby All shook up

L E X I N G TO N G RE E NWOOD
Why a Democrat has short odds to Elvis's cousin, health and tax cuts are
remain governor in a conservative state on the ballot in America's poorest state

A tucky,
S K E D TO DESCRI B E the pol itics of Ken­
many would default to calling i t D OWNTOWN JAC KSO N, Mississippi's cap­
ital , is a ghost town with storefronts
Trum p country. A n d they wou ld have many boarded up si nce the civil-rights e ra and a
poi nts in their favour. But others obj ect. crime rate that scares locals into staying i n
"It's Beshear country ! " yells Steve Beshear, after su nset. More people i n Mississippi
the state's Democratic governor between are out of a j ob and more chi ld ren live in fa­
2007 and 2015 , unzipping his bomber jack­ therless homes than anywhere else in the
et to show a T-shi rt emblazon ed with the country. Well over half the black residents
slogan for d ramatic effect. He, too, has a of the D elta live below the poverty line.
point. On a wet Satu rday morn ing in Lex­ Some of those in the state's richer parts are
i ngton he was the warm-up act for h is son, glum. "When you're the poorest, s ickest,
Andy Beshear, the sitting Democratic go­ fattest state i n America, who wants to
vernor of the state, who is ru nning for re­ Ba rrel -aged Besh ea r bring their family here?" says a reti ree in
election on November 7th . I ncred ibly for a Oxford, a pretty college town .
state that went for M r Tru mp by 26 pe rcent­ most to link the relatively popular Demo­ It is perplexing then that Tate Reeves ,
age poi nts in 2020, cu rrent polls make cratic governor to the deeply un popular the Republ i can governor, is ru nning for re­
Beshear the Younger the favou rite. Democratic p res ident. He argues that the election on November 7th on a message of
As in Appalachia and the American economy is hard ly as Mr Beshear presents prosperity. He is campaign i ng on what he
South , Democrats once swept Kentucky. In i t. "The med i an household i ncome has calls "Mississippi momentum", touting the
recent elections, Democrats have managed dropped 12% ... and we have the lowest state's schools and economy. His best sell­
to convince themselves that one of their workforce parti cipation that's been record­ ing-point is a statistic released earl ier this
nu mber has a chan ce of wi n n i ng a p romi­ ed in Kentucky's history," says Mr Cameron year: in the decade to 2022 Mississippi rose
nent statewide race, and then rai se fabu­ after an event in Fort Mitchell, near the from ranking second-worst on 4th-grade
lous s u ms of money, only to face a d rub­ bord er with Ohi o. "That's all because of the readi ng-test scores to 21s t-best national ly,
bing at the ballot box. Thu s in 2020 Amy Eiden administration and the enabler that a feat that the governor d es erves some
McG rath, a serially u nsuccessful Demo­ he has here in Andy Beshear." cred it for. He re minds voters that he re­
c ratic candidate, raised $9o m i n her race to Mr Cameron has also sought to nation­ opened the state after covid-19 , pu mped
u nseat the Republ ican senator M itch ali se the race in another way. I n his stump money into coastal i nd ustries and cut tax­
McConnell-only to lose by 20 points. Yet speech, he pledges to p rotect law enforce­ es. (Less is said about the biggest corrup­
the state has spent more years this century ment from apologists for crime, the u n­ tion scandal i n state history that took place
bei ng governed by a Democrat than by a born from abortionists and women's while he was lieutenant governor.)
Republican. And it may now be i n for an­ sports from biolog ical males . Some might That could be enough to get his base to
other four years of the same. poi nt out that Kentucky seems an i nhospi­ the polls. After all, Republicans usually
That should be i nstructive for Demo­ table place for the various three-letter wi n here. But his opponent, B randon Pres­
c rats. Both Beshear pere and fils have man­ strai ns of feared p rogress ive indoctri na­ ley (a second cousin of The Ki ng) is a p ro­
aged to keep an arm's-length relationship tion-C RT, DEi and ESG . "Some of these life, pro-gu n Democrat and is trailing by
with p res idents of their own party. They things haven 't made it to ru ral areas, but j u st one poi nt in the latest poll. He out­
have done so by touting the economic we're read ing about them in the newspa­ raised the governor four to one in the last
benefits of federal spendi ng. Despite the pers , and we know they're coming," says quarter (largely thanks to money from out
u npopu larity of Obamacare, the elder Thomas Massie, a Republican congress­ of state) . ''As you r side m irror says i n you r
Beshear pushed through an expansion to man who carries a homemade and self­ car, thi ngs are closer than they appea r," he
Med icaid , the health-insurance p ro­ p rogrammed national-debt clock in his told a crowd two weeks from election day.
gramme for the poor, and a state-ru n i nsu r­ suit pocket, while at a wel ding training One of the key issues is health care-or
ance exchange (which Republicans a re no centre i n Flemings burg. lack thereof. One in six people i n the state
longer campaigning to u ndo) . The you nger Yet Mr Beshea r has managed to parry do not have i nsurance and nearly half the
Beshear touts private-sector i nvestments some of these attacks. Abortion is all but il­ rural hospitals are at risk of closi ng. For
spu rred on by the I nflation Reduction Act, legal i n the state of the Kentucky, the result every 4 , 000 children in the Delta there is
a big subsidy bill, even as he murmu rs ob­ of a "trigger law" that went into effect after j u st one paediatrician. Five years ago the
j ections to some federal environ mental the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade inpatient ward in Greenwood, a rural town
rules. "The things that a re going on from in 2022, with no exceptions for rape and i n­ tucked between cotton fields, had 160 beds ;
i n frastructu re to public educati on to cest. As stau nchly anti-abortion as Ken­ today it can finance only 12. Most of i ts pa­
health care in Kentu cky to new j obs are a tucky is, Mr Beshear has spent the later part tients can't pay and skilled nurses have
lot more important to a Kentuckian than of the campaign hammering his opponent been sacked to save money. "The bleeding
whatever they're arguing about in Wash­ for the stance. "My opponent lacks the ba­ is profuse," says Harold Wheeler, a docto r
i ngton, DC," says the governor. sic empathy to say a nine-year-ol d , raped who left the hospital after working shift
That is why Daniel Cameron, the cur­ and impregnated by a fam ily member, after shift without backu p.
rent state attorney-general and Republican should have an option," says the governor. For every patient who shows up there
challenger to Mr Beshear, i s trying his ut- "That's too extreme for all of Kentu cky." ■ are many more who stay home. Jahcoby ►►

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22 United States The Economist N ove m ber 4t h 2023

► Edwards, a 27-year-old mechanic who lives played a part in creating. It takes longer to
in the projects and sends child-support What's u p, Doc? train a doctor in America than in most rich
checks to seven women, craves a check-up countries, and many give up along the way.
but makes too much to qualify for Medic­ Doctors per 1 ,000 people Future physicians must first graduate from
aid and too little to pay his way. He has high 2022 or latest avai lable university, which typically takes four
blood pressure and last year his father died years. Then they must attend medical
of a stroke. He fears he is destined for the 0 2 3 4 5 6 school for another four years. (In most
Austria
same, but hopes he can live to see his tod­ other rich countries, doctors need around
Germ a ny
dlers become teens. The oldest person he six years of schooling.) After post-second­
Spain
knows is 65. ary education, American doctors must
I ta ly
Mr Reeves takes pride in Mississippi be­ complete a residency programme, which
Fran ce
ing one of ten states that still refuses to ex­ Brita i n
can last from three to seven years. Further
pand Medicaid, passing up $1bn a year in Ca nada
specialist training may follow. In all, it
federal funds so as not to partake in Barad< United States takes 10-15 years after arriving at university
Obama's signature project. But polling Japan to become a doctor in America.
shows that 70% of Republicans in the state Mexico If the expense and length of the training
disagree with him on it. So does Cary were not off-putting enough, the number
Stockett, the governor's pastor. "He and I of places in the profession has also been ar­
U n ited States, medical school, '000
don't see eye-to-eye on that," he says from 60
tificially held down. In September 1980 the
his office overlooking the state capitol. Department of Health and Human Services
"We have the highest infant-mortality rate 50 released a report warning of a troubling
in the country, I just kind of believe the surplus of 70,000 physicians by 1990 in
40
Lord would like to see that addressed." most specialties. It recommended reduc­
At the end of September the governor 30 ing the numbers entering medical school
announced a plan to ask the feds for a high­ and suggested that foreign medical-school
er Medicaid-reimbursement rate. If grant­ 20 graduates be restricted from entering the
ed, it would keep hospitals afloat but Accepta n ces country. Despite the shortage, doctors
10
would do little to help people like Mr Ed­ trained abroad must still sit exams and
wards afford care. Democrats mocked the 0 complete a residency in most states re­
scheme, calling it "too little, too Tate". 1 980 85 90 95 2000 05 1 0 1 5 22
gardless of their years of experience.
Mr Presley wants all the cash the state Sources: O ECD; Assoc iation of American Medical Colleges
Medical colleges listened, and matricu­
can get. The New Deal sped up electrifica­ lation flatlined for 25 years, despite appli­
tion in Mississippi by decades, he says. He cations rising and the population growing
is touring every county, arguing that feder­ ed. And yet there is a shortage of doctors. by 70m over the same period (see chart) . In
al money could be just as transformative What is going on? 1997 federal funding for residencies was
for health. His unlikely path to victory runs For many Americans, the doctor short­ capped, forcing hospitals to either limit
through black voters, who make up 35% of age has already arrived. More than 100m programmes or shoulder some of the fi­
the electorate and most of the state's people today live in an area without nancial burden of training their doctors.
Democrats. At a historically black college enough primary-care doctors (the problem Some spots have been added back, but not
inJackson, Mr Presley's words were echoed is particularly bad in rural areas). For men­ nearly enough. Many potential doctors are
by so many "that's right"s and "amen"s that tal health things are even worse: half of being shut out of the profession. "Not
it sounded like a Baptist church on a Sun­ Americans live in an area with a shortage everyone who would be willing to go
day morning. "Let's go Brandon," one stu­ of mental-health professionals. With less through that training and could do it suc­
dent said with a smirk. ■ than three physicians for every 1,000 peo­ cessfully is being allowed to," says Profes­
ple, America is behind most other wealthy sor Gottlieb, the economist.
countries, despite spending vastly more on In reaction to this artificial doctor
Medicine health care (see chart). shortage, a new type of medical degree
The usual suspects have been blamed. gained popularity: Dos (doctors of osteo­
The gilded age As the baby-boomers age the need for med­ pathic medicine). In 1981, there were only
ical care rises and the doctors among them 14 osteopathic medical schools. Today
retire. According to the AAM C, more than there are 41. In most countries, an osteo­
two out of five practising doctors will be 65 path is someone who manipulates middle­
WAS H I N G TO N , D C
or older within the next decade, leaving aged spines. In America DOS are fully-li­
even more vacancies. Covid-19 drove doc­ censed doctors. They represent about 11%
Medical schools have artificially
tors away: an analysis by Peterson-K F F, a of the physician workforce and 25% of
depressed the supply of doctors
non-profit group, shows that health-care medical-school students. "The American

A CCO R D I NG TO TH E Association of
American Medical Colleges (AAMC), in
a decade America will have a shortage of up
workers are quitting their jobs at a rate 30%
higher than before covid (and about double
the rate of all workers today). "A majority of
DO looks almost nothing like their interna­
tional counterparts," says Robert Orr, a
policy wonk. "They basically main­
to 124,000 doctors. This makes no sense. physicians would not encourage our off­ streamed themselves in response."
The profession is lavishly paid: $350,000 is spring to go into health care," saysJesse Eh­ Nurse practitioners and physician as­
the average salary according to a recent pa­ renfeld, a physician and president of the sistants have been given responsibilities
per byJoshua Gottlieb, an economist at the American Medical Association. "People typically reserved for doctors, such as writ­
University of Chicago, and colleagues. Lots have lost the joy in the profession." ing prescriptions. Foreign-trained doctors
of people want to train as doctors: over Yet there is another explanation for the have filled some of the gap too. Yet the
85,000 people take the medical-college ad­ doctor shortage, which has to do with the shortage persists. This looks a lot like a la­
mission test each year, and more than half pipeline into the profession, and which bour market that has been rigged in favour
of all medical-school applicants are reject- the American Medical Association has of the insiders. ■

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 The Economist N ove m ber 4th 2023 United States 23

Washington, DC of cases, Cook County, which includes Chi­

cago, 14 % and Detroit 33%. Such a high dis­
Crime and governance missal rate could well be discouraging po­
lice from making arrests . And though it
could suggest triaging, where prosecutors
prioritise slam-dunk cases, the office's
win-rate did not budge as they slimmed
WAS H I N G TO N , D C
down their docket. That sends a message:
in America's capital, committing a crime
Why is the capital of the world's richest, most powerful country so violent?
may not have consequences .

T H O U G H H E H A S a black belt in karate,

when a trio of armed boys in ski masks
threatened Henry Cuellar, a congressman
and a half years later. But even if it resumes
work, Matthew Graves, Washington's chief
prosecutor, expects substantial litigation
Because there is no state apparatus, dis­
trict judges who hear local cases are nomi­
nated by the president and approved by the
from Texas, outside his Navy Yard flat on over whether courts can recognise the sci­ Senate, just like federal j udges. Since presi­
October 2nd he swiftly handed over the entists at the lab as forensic experts again. dents are eager to fill circuit-court posts
keys to his Toyota Crossover. It was the Letting the House of Representatives across the country to increase their politi­
754th carjacking in America's capital this run the District would be no magic fix, cal influence, Washington's judges get
year, amounting to roughly three a day however (especially given its own pen­ sidelined. As a result the district has 12 va­
since January. And it was not the first at­ chant for disorder) . In fact, the current de­ cancies and seven judges awaiting Senate
tack on a member of Congress. In February gree of federal involvement seems to be confirmation. That is unusual: in Pennsyl­
Angie Craig of Minnesota heroically fend­ hindering Washington's ability to ward off vania just two posts are unfilled, in neigh­
ed off a man who grabbed her by the neck crime. Criminal-justice research suggests bouring Maryland one. With nearly one­
in the lift of the building where she stays that people are not deterred from commit­ third of the bench empty, fewer cases go to
near the Capitol. ting crimes based on the severity of pun­ trial. The backlog is not only an injustice; it
Violent crime in the district is up by ishment, but rather on whether it is certain also pulls the punch of a quick conviction.
40% this year. A proliferation of guns has and swift. The federal government's choke­ More independence from the f eds
turned dozens of petty disputes into kill­ hold on the district complicates both. would probably help the District get back
ings: for the first time in a quarter of a cen­ on track . But local leaders will be trusted
tury, more than 200 people were murdered Capitol offences only when they can reduce violence. In July
before October 1st. That bucks the national In Washington, unlike any other American the council passed a bill that temporarily
trend. Elsewhere the crime epidemic that city, the u s attorney is responsible for raised the charge for firing a gun from a
came with covid-19 is ebbing. In 30 cities prosecuting both local and federal crimes misdemeanour to a felony and made it eas­
that make their murder counts publicly (and defending the federal government in ier to lock up violent offenders before trial.
available, the Council on Criminal Justice, civil cases) . The office's split personality After Mr Cuellar was attacked they voted to
a think-tank, found that by July there had means that resources must be rationed. extend that bill for another 90 days .
been 202 fewer homicides than in the first After January 6th 2021, for example, the Last week the mayor introduced anoth­
half of 2022, a 9.4 % drop. In Atlanta, Los former u s attorney pulled staff off local er one, to crack down on loitering, wearing
Angeles, Philadelphia and Rochester the cases to help prosecute insurrectionists dodgy masks and scheming to steal from
murder rate fell by more than 20%. Why who had stormed the Capitol. shops. Congress ought to commend them
then is the capital of the free world on track In 2022 the office declined to prosecute for it. Instead, House Republicans' latest
to record its worst year in decades? 67% of local arrests, up from 31% in 2016. appropriations bill includes a provision to
Because the District of Columbia is not That is much higher than in other cities: allow out-of-state gun-owners to carry
a state, the federal government has an un­ according to the Wash ington Post, last year concealed weapons in the district. It is
usual amount of say in its affairs. In March Philadelphia prosecutors dropped just 4 % hard to imagine how that will help. ■
Congress reversed a revision to Washing­
ton's criminal code passed by the district
council which, among m any other chang­
es, dropped mandatory minimum sen­
tences for carjacking. It was the first time
Congress had nixed a local law in three de­
cades. Mitch McConnell, the Senate's mi­
nority leader, warned that the district's
"soft-on-crime" leaders needed "adult su­
pervision". By summer's end three Repub­
lican congressmen had filed a bill to dis­
solve the council and mayor's office and
put federal lawmakers in charge.
Local government is certainly to blame
for some of nc's problems . Washington's
crime lab, a district agency responsible for
processing forensic data, lost its accredita­
tion in the spring of 2021 after it repeatedly
tried to cover up mistakes it had made. Da­
ta from the first nine months after it closed
show thatj ust 7% of D N A samples collected
at crime scenes were analysed. That made
some cases impossible to prosecute. The
lab is now seeking re-accreditation, two Dial M for murder

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24 United States The Economist N ove m ber 4t h 2023

Lexington I "Free Palestine" and freer speech

Ca mpus pro testers fo r Palestine are lowering the bar for "hate speech "
Rather than try to punish or silence students, a wiser choice
would be to pocket the permissive standard they are setting, for
when the bias response team next comes knocking. A recent Har­
vard/Harris poll showed 51% of Americans between 18 and 24 be­
lieved Hamas's rampage could be "justified" by Palestinians' griev­
ances. Still, some may not realise, when they chant for a Palestine
"from the river to the sea", that they are advocating ethnic cleans­
ing. But that is the message received by many Jews and others, and
an argument of leftists uneasy with debate has been that the im­
pact on the listener, rather than the intent of the speaker, should
guide judgment of offensiveness. By that measure alone, it should
be harder now for those sympathetic to pro-Palestine students to
argue that any "hate speech" is off limits. University presidents
are in effect embracing this standard by defending the right of
these protesters to speak up. (They seem unlikely to advance the
foul position that Jews are "white" and thus un-offendable.)
Some presidents are in trouble over their own speech. Donors
to Harvard and the University of Pennsylvania have closed their
chequebooks because they thought the presidents temporised on
antisemitism. Again, this could prove constructive: after years of
taking positions on matters of moment-positions that happily
aligned with those of staff and students-leaders may acquire an

Ithepling
T's A LWAYS seemed a bit self-sabotaging: The leftist ideology rip­
out from American college campuses this century has on
one hand favoured restricting speech, yet on the other posited
appreciation for promoting debate rather than prej udging it.
"My hope is that the rediscovery of freedom of speech, and the
discovery of political neutrality or political restraint-not com­
that the implacable forces of capitalism and white privilege en­ menting on every event of t h e day-will b e something schools
trench right-wing power. Whose speech did these ideologues adopt, and they'll stick with it," says Greg Lukianoff, co-author of a
imagine would wind up getting suppressed? new book, ''The Cancelling of the American Mind". "My fear is that
This tension has not surfaced often on college campuses, at this will be just like 9/11 ." Mr Lukianoff, who is president of the
least not at the most exclusive schools. There, the forces of capital­ Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression, a non-profit or­
ism and white privilege-if not of tolerance and curiosity-were ganisation, says that after the attacks by al-Qaeda universities ral­
mostly routed. A dwindling minority of faculty members, as few lied around professors vilified for criticising America. "When the
as a tenth, identify as conservative. Administrators, whose ranks threat is perceived as coming from off campus, they always redis­
have ballooned and who oversee the "bias-response teams" that cover freedom of speech and circle the wagons," he says. "The test
police speech, are even more likely to identify with the left. is going to be if they still feel that way when the threat comes from
Yet off campus, the forces of reaction began responding with on campus, when it's students demanding a professor be fired."
strikingly symmetrical concerns about speech: conservative go­
vernors and legislatures across America have embraced the theory What Dartmouth can teach
that certain ideas are too dangerous for all minds and certain Amid the uproar-because of the uproar-there are signs of hope.
views are too hurtful for particular ears. Bills proposed in states Despite some vile acts, protests have generally been peaceful, even
such as Texas seek to protect children from material that might when students with opposed positions have gathered near one an­
cause "discomfort, guilt, anguish, or any other form of psycholog­ other. Faculty views have not been homogeneous. Not all speech
ical distress on account of his or her race or sex". But rather than has taken the form of shouting, and there have even been instanc­
aiming to safeguard the feelings of people from historically mar­ es reported of listening. Within hours of the Hamas massacre, pro­
ginalised groups, such bills are meant to protect white children fessors at Dartmouth from Israel, Lebanon and Egypt decided to
from the very ideas the left wants to promulgate. jointly host two public forums on the crisis, according to the Fo r­
Now a hard yet potentially constructive moment in America's ward, a Jewish publication. They expected a dozen or so but drew
battle over speech has arrived. On prestigious campuses, the war hundreds; searching questions were asked.
in Gaza has shaken the prevailing power relationships, for the mo­ At the second session, Susannah Heschel, a professor of Jewish
ment. Students attacking Israel for its response to the terrorism of Studies, observed that scholars learn "never to be satisfied with a
Hamas have come under withering criticism, and worse: some simple narrative". A fellow panellist, Ezzedine Fishere, an Egyp­
have seen job offers rescinded or had their names and photos tian novelist and former diplomat, then suggested the members of
flashed on billboards paraded by trucks around their campuses. the audience ask themselves, ''Are you trying to understand what
Some right-leaning advocates of free speech are relishing the is happening, or are you trying to find someone to blame?" People
spectacle. For years, leading lights of the left insisted there was no had a right to be indignant, he continued, but students also had a
such thing as a glibly censorious "cancel culture". They liked to chance "to understand the complexity, which is often unpleasant
speak instead of an "accountability culture", or a "culture of conse­ because we come across things that we don't like".
quence" that justly punished offensive speakers. Now, as the can­ "You don't have to go to an Ivy League university in order to be
cellers wring their hands about being cancelled, Schadenfreude indignant," he continued in the same kindly yet firm tone. "The
hangs heavy in the air. opportunity you have here is to learn." ■

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 The Americas The Economist November 4th 2023 25

Orga nised cri m e men were found hanged in their prison

cells in October.
The new narco networl< Cocaine is the primary cause of Ecua­
dor's problems. For decades the country
was mostly ignored by international drug­
traffickers. That changed in the late 2000s,
when gangs realised they could get even
juicier mark-ups by shipping blow farther
P U N T A R E N A S A N D S AO P A U LO

Gang violence is spreading across Latin America afield, to Europe and Australia. Partly as a

0 N O CTO B E R 27TH 90 police officers, 22

vehicles and a water cannon stood rea­
Call it the new narco network: a cocktail of
drugs, guns and migration is fuelling gang
result, gangs then changed their shipping
methods: rather than pack it onto planes or
boats to the United States, coke was squir­
dy in a field on the outskirts of Santiago, violence across the region. relled away inside container ships among
the capital of Chile. They were not there to Take Ecuador first. Its descent into cha­ legitimate goods.
guard a rowdy protest. Instead, they were os has been swift. In 2018 the country was a After Colombian ports tightened their
there to monitor a narcofu neral: the burial sleepy Andean patch of 17m people. It ex­ security, criminals looked for alternative
of a young woman with alleged ties to ported oil and fish. It had the fourth-lowest shipping routes. Ecuador's poorly-moni­
drug-traffickers. Such an event, which of­ homicide rate in Latin America, at 5.8 per tored ports became even more attractive
ten ends with bullets being shot into the 100,000 people. But this year that rate is ex­ after 2009, when Rafael Correa, a left­
air by mourners, would have once been un­ pected to top 35 per 100,000 people. It is al­ winger, then the president, undermined
thinkable in Chile, long considered one of ready higher than Mexico's and Brazil's the country's defences by closing an Amer­
Latin America's safest countries. But be­ (see chart on next page). Criminal groups ican naval base and, as such, ending co-op­
tween May 2019 and September 2023 gangs kill with impunity, setting off car bombs eration with the us Drug Enforcement Ad­
held nearly 2,000 such funerals, according and hanging dead bodies from bridges. In ministration. Ecuadorean gangs such as
to Gabriel Boric, the president. In Septem­ August a presidential candidate running Los Choneros signed up as transportistas,
ber Mr Boric sent a bill to Congress intend­ on an anti-corruption platform was assas­ moving coke for Mexican gangs and the Al­
ed to limit them. sinated. The six supposed Colombian hit- banian mafia. By 2019 Ecuador had turned
Latin America's murder map is being re­ into a cocaine superhighway.
drawn. The region's homicide rate has Locking up gangsters merely helped
been falling since 2017, although countries ➔ Also in this section them strengthen their networks. Los Cho­
such as Mexico and Brazil are still home to neros thrived in the crowded prisons, re­
26 Costa Rica's welfa re state
some of the cities with the highest murder cruiting heavily and launching attacks on
rates on Earth. But in previously safe coun­ 28 A rea l ity check in Venezuela their enemies. Targeted killings escalated
tries murder rates are hitting record levels, into massacres, where dozens of inmates
28 Canada sours on migration
including Ecuador, Costa Rica and Chile. were dismembered and burnt. In 2021 ►►

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26 The Americas The Economist N ove m ber 4t h 2023

► some 330 prisoners were murdered in Ec­ What does this new narco network
uador, the highest number in the world. A gri m regional trend mean for the countries that were once
That same year coke ranked as Ecuador's H om icides per 1 00,000 peop le among Latin America's success stories?
sixth-biggest export, worth nearly $1bn, or 30 Many citizens will vote with their feet. Last
0.9% of G D P, according to Insight Crime, year, Ecuadoreans were the second-biggest
an investigative outlet. 25 nationality to cross Panama's treacherous
Similarly, this year in Costa Rica homi­ 20 Darien Gap on their way north.
cides are predicted to hit a record of 17 per Those who stay at home may turn to
100,000 people, compared with 11 per 15 more extreme solutions. According to Lat­
100,000 people three years ago. Cocaine is 10 inobar6metro, a regional survey, fully 48%
a big part of the problem there, too. Rising of Ecuadoreans, 31 % of Chileans and 22 %
production in Colombia, where record 5 of Costa Ricans rank security as their coun­
amounts of coca leaf have been harvested Chi le* 0 try's biggest problem, well above the re­
in recent years, translates into larger ship­ gional average of 13 °/o . Plenty of Latin
201 5 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
ments arriving in Costa Rica, says Alvaro Americans admire El Salvador's authori­
*No data before 2018 becau se of a change in methodology
Ramos, a former security minister. Sou rces: FBI; Gobierno de Ch ile; lga ra pe I nstitute
tarian president Nayib Bukele, who over
However, coke is not the only reason for the past year has locked up 1.6% of the pop­
rising violence. In recent years many mur­ ulation in a sweeping gang crackdown and
ders have been about the domestic mari­ detained in police raids this year. whose approval rating is 88%, the highest
juana market. Illegal cannabis is big busi­ As a result, the share of Chileans who in the region.
ness in Costa Rica: 3% of residents say they say immigration is bad has surged from Politicians across Latin America are
use it monthly, one of the highest con­ 31% in December 2018 to 77% in April 2023, taking note. On October 15th Daniel Noboa,
sumption rates in Central America. Many according to Cadem, a pollster. Another a 35-year-old right-winger, won the presi­
gangs prefer weed to coke. Moving the survey found that most blame illegal im­ dential elections in Ecuador. He has prom­
white stuff is hard : it requires connections migration for the rise in crime. Facing re­ ised to ape Mr Bukele's approach, and build
and corrupt officials (of whom there are gional elections next year, the government floating prisons in the Pacific. Some are
relatively few in Costa Rica). By contrast has focused more on security. After three sceptical that will curb the gang problem
weed has few barriers to entry and it can be police officers were killed in March, Mr there. But such outlandish solutions are
sold anywhere. Boric pledged a 40% annual increase in the increasingly popular. Faced with ever more
The state is ill-equipped to stop these security budget and passed stricter penal­ powerful gangs, many Latin Americans ap­
new gangs from thriving. Costa Rica abol­ ties for crimes against police. Even so, pear to think sacrificing civil rights is a
ished its military in 1949. Rodrigo Chaves, many consider him too soft on crime. price worth paying for security. ■
the president, blames past admi nistra­
tions and the judiciary for the situation. He
says the country does not have enough po­
lice, the laws are outdated and the judicial
system is too soft on criminals.
Pa rad ise l ost?
The third place in this new narco net­
SAN JOSE
work, Chile, is not a murder hotspot. Last
Costa Rica's state services a re crumbling
year its homicide rate reached a record 6.7
per 100,000 people. That is far below its
neighbours, and close to the rate in the Un­
0 ofN OCTO B E R 25TH SanJose, the capital
Costa Rica, was filled with music
tion" of the country for the past four
decades. Mr Chaves says he "loves" that
ited States, of 6.3. But as its narcofunerals and placards as several thousand people march to the presidential palace
attest, crime is getting much worse. More marched to the presidential palace to call to defend their rights, but his govern­
cocaine and potent cannabis are being in­ on President Rodrigo Chaves to provide ment does not have the headroom to
terdicted than ever before, with cannabis more funding for the country's public spend more on health or education. "You
seizures tripling between 2018 and 2021. Its services. Many shouted in favour of more have people defending...interests that
ports have become targets for gun-run­ money for education, which does not don't necessarily coincide with the gen­
ners. Timber-trafficking is also a problem. receive the 8% of GDP annually that the eral well-being," he argues.
The copper industry, which accounts for constitution mandates. Others called for Costa Rica has long struggled with
nearly 11% of the country's G D P, is blighted supporting the Caja, the institution that how to pay for its welfare state. The
by armed hijackings. provides health care and pensions to pandemic worsened matters, causing
Ticas, as citizens are known. debt-to-GD P to rise to 68% in 2021. Mr
Cocaine blues The country has long stood out Chaves has reduced that to 60%.
Chile is one of the region's richest coun­ among its neighbours in Latin America But many fret that Mr Chaves's parsi­
tries. It also hosts half a million Venezue­ for its universal health care and educa­ mony is an excuse for a full-scale over­
lan migrants fleeing Nicolas Maduro's re­ tion, along with its democratic institu­ haul of the welfare state. He has raised
gime. That combination has attracted ma­ tions. Worries that they are worsening tensions with the Caja by calling it
fias such as Tren de Aragua, Venezuela's have been accelerated by the president's "bankrupt". That is not true, says Alvaro
largest gang. It is battling to control Chile's current focus on cost-cutting. It also Ramos Chaves, a former head of the
underworld, having built a human-traf­ comes at a time when the country faces a institution (no relation to the president).
ficking empire across South America. surge in violent crime, and youngsters Similarly, the president has also
Shoot-outs occur regularly in the port city need opportunities so as to not get in­ worried some by criticising other liberal
of Iquique, as local gangs fend off incur­ volved with gangs (see previous story). institutions, such as public universities
sions by the Venezuelans. Tren de Aragua's Mr Chaves says that he agrees that and the independent media. Yet with an
cells run prostitution rings in several cit­ public services have deteriorated. But he approval rating of over 60%, he is un­
ies. Some 40 alleged members were jailed pins the blame on the "bad administra- likely to change course.
in one province last year. Dozens have been

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Social Media Pakistan 0342-4938217
28 The Americas The Economist N ove m ber 4t h 2023

Venezuela Assembly-a body itself born out of a Migration

rigged vote in 2020-declared that the op­
Dashed dreams position-run primary was "a farce and a Oh no, Canada
scam". He insinuated that the opposition
of democracy stole the identities of 2m Venezuelans. His
allegations were followed up by actual le­
gal threats, delivered by the regime's attor­
CARACAS
ney-general, Tarek William Saab, who an­ OTTAWA
nounced that he was investigating those Canadians are souring on immigrants
The Supreme Court bars the opposition
who had organised the primary vote. On
F in October, it did not
O R A F O RT N I G H T
seem delusional to feel hopeful about
October 30th the country's Supreme Court,
yet another arm of Mr Maduro's govern­ A Canada is that it
N A P H O R I SM A B O U T
has too much geography and not
Venezuela. On October 17th the autocratic ment, declared that the result of the elec­ enough history. Immigration has long
regime of President Nicolas Maduro met in tion was formally annulled. been seen as the solution to both problems
Barbados with representatives of the oppo­ "They basically wiped out the election. in the country's century-and-a-half of exis­
sition to agree on how free and fair future They've broken the deal", said Marco Ru­ tence. Canadians, who tend to think of
elections should be held. The following bio, the Republican senator for Florida, to themselves as pro-migrant, have broadly
day, the United States government lifted Antony Blinken, the us secretary of state, agreed that bringing in immigrants would
most of the draconian sanctions it had im­ during a committee hearing at the Senate improve the country's economic growth
posed since 2019 on Venezuela's oil, min­ on October 31st. Mr Blinken insisted that and help fund the country's generous so­
ing and finance sectors. Five political pris­ the Venezuelan government would not get cial programmes as its population ages.
oners were then set free. On October 22nd, "a free pass" and that sanctions could be re­ Similarly, by making the country more di­
opposition primaries went ahead. Turnout imposed "if the regime has, in fact, violat­ verse, migrants boost its culture, too.
was high, with the organisers saying more ed the agreement that it reached". Mr Blin­ That consensus is now starting to fray.
than 2m people voted. A thunderous 92% ken has previously stated that the regime For the first time in decades, the number of
of those who participated backed Maria has until the end of November to set a ti­ Canadians who want to take in fewer im­
Corina Machado, one of Mr Maduro's most meline "for the expedited reinstatement of migrants is increasing: it jumped from
determined critics (pictured) . all candidates", and to release several 34 % in March to 53% in September, accord­
Ms Machado, a former congresswoman American prisoners from Venezuela. ing to one poll. In another survey 44 % of
and an advocate of privatisation, has alrea­ Full reimposition of sanctions seems those asked either strongly or somewhat
dy been banned from political office by Mr unlikely. The United States "has several agreed with the statement "there is too
Maduro's regime. But for a few giddy hours reasons to be careful," says Mariano de Al­ much immigration to Canada," compared
during and after the primary election, ba, from the Crisis Group, a think-tank in with 27% last year.
there was a flurry of optimism that perhaps Brussels . In September 50,000 Venezuelan What has caused this? Partly it comes
a change was in the air. "All we Venezue­ migrants crossed the Mexican border to down to the fact that a post-pandemic
lans want to do is vote," said Carlos Fernan­ the United States, outnumbering Mexicans backlog in migration has turned into a del­
dez, a 74-year-old, as he cheerfully queued for the first time. Along with ensuring its uge. For the year ending July 1st 2023, more
to cast his ballot at a polling station in Ca­ own access to Venezuelan oil at a time of than 1m newcomers arrived in Canada,
racas, the capital. Some dared think that global supply concerns, Mr Biden's govern­ edging the population over 40m. That was
Mr Maduro's government might finally ment is likely to want to stop that migra­ the highest annual population-growth
have been persuaded that the prize of a lift­ tion at its source by leaning on the regime. rate, at 2.9%, since 1957. Statistics Canada,
ing of American sanctions was a fair ex­ Meanwhile Mr Maduro's government will the usually sober statistical agency, an­
change for allowing a real presidential be reluctant to cut itself from the boom nounced it was "cause for celebration".
election-one in which it might even be that a sanction-free economy could offer Not all Canadians are putting out the
defeated-to take place next year. in an election year, while retaining the op­ bunting, though. A lack of affordable hous­
Then came the reality check. Jorge Ro­ tion to cheat if necessary. The end of this ing in the country, combined with a public
driguez, president of Venezuela's National Venezuelan tragedy does not seem near. ■ health-care system that is stretched by a
shortage of family doctors, has led some to
become wary of newcomers. As people feel
that their quality of life is deteriorating,
they blame immigrants, says Victoria Ess­
es, a specialist in attitudes towards migra­
tion at the University of Western Ontario.
The government wants to welcome
nearly half a million new permanent resi­
dents this year, going up to half a million in
202 5 . By contrast the annual target in 2015
was 300,000 people.
So far no political leader in the country
has called for a cut in the annual migration
target. Indeed, many Canadians still say
migrants are a good thing for the economy,
even as they want fewer of them. But on
November 1st Marc Miller, Canada's immi­
gration minister, announced that no fur­
ther increases to the half a million number
would be made. It was a concession, albeit
A true Iron Lady a small one. ■

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 Asia The Economist November 4th 2023 29

Asia's orga n ised crime wave corm ption crackdown launched by China's

High rollers and dirty money

leader, Xi Jin ping, a decade ago. Gambling
has long been illegal in China, except in
Macau, whose casinos had hitherto been
exploited by high-rollers not only for gam­
bling, but also to evade the country's strict
capital controls. Individuals are permitted
to move no more than $ 50,000 out of Chi­
SI NGAPORE
na each year. By arranging to gamble in Ma­
A money-laundering case in Singapore points to a massive surge in cybercrime
cau through middlemen, known as jun­

W showed up at Su Haijin's
H E N PO L I C E
lavish apartment in Singapore one
early morning in August, he leapt from his
In October, Australian police arrested
seven people on suspicion of laundering
the proceeds of cyber-scams, smuggling
kets, cash-rich Chinese (including corrupt
officials looking to squirrel away stolen
loot) could move money into international
second-floor balcony. The ethnic-Chinese and violent crime, and seized over $3om in bank accounts. Mr Xi's crackdown put an
businessman was found hiding in a drain assets. It was the third China-related mon­ end to that. By 2015, Macau's gaming rev­
with broken legs. The police meanwhile ar­ ey-laundering case they had made public enues had slumped by 34 % . This left Chi­
rested nine other suspects in what Singa­ this year. In June police in the Philippines nese gamblers and capital-control cheats
pore has described as one of the world's raided a giant online gambling firm, rescu­ looking for an alternative arrangement.
biggest money-laundering cases. It has ing 2,700 people who claimed to have been They found it in online gambling.
since seized or frozen more than $2bn in tricked into working in cybercrime. Chi­ It is also illegal in China, but permitted
luxury properties, cars, gold bars and cash. na's summer blockbuster this year was not in several South-East Asian countries,
The case is part of a broader campaign "Barbie" or "Oppenheimer" but "No More whose online casinos tend to be accessible
by Asian governments to counter a huge Bets", a propaganda film warning of the through Chinese social-media platforms.
surge in money-laundering linked to or­ risks of being trafficked to South-East Asia By 2017, some of the j unkets that Mr Xi had
ganised crime. This criminal tsunami has to work in cyber-scamming. driven from Macau had relocated to the
roots in illicit online gambling by Chinese The crime surge can be traced back to a Philippines, where they were licensed as
punters, much of it organised in South­ Philippines offshore gaming operators
East Asia by ethnic-Chinese gangs. In re­ (PoGos) to run online gambling firms serv­
➔ Also in this section
cent years the gangsters have also moved ing clients located abroad, mostly in Chi­
into other illegal activities, especially on­ 30 Halloween in Tokyo na. Around half a million mainland Chi­
line scams. Police in Australia, HongKong, nese are now estimated to work in the Phil­
31 South Asia's deadly turmeric
Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand, as ippines' online gambling industry. That is
well as Singapore, have recently raided ca­ 31 India's smog politics in part because popular online games such
sinos and scam-shops to arrest and grab as blackjack and pai gow poker require the
32 Banyan: India loves Israel
the assets of those responsible. dealer to speak the same language as the ►►

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30 Asia The Economist N ove m ber 4t h 2023

► player. The size of China's online gambling Hongli International, a company impli­ of dollars in profits. One of Mr Wang's rela­
market was $9. 9bn in 2022, according to cated in the Singapore bust, illustrates how tives was arrested in Singapore's dawn
I MARC, a market research firm. transnational gambling firms operate. Ac­ raid. According to the Strai ts Times, a Sin­
Under Rodrigo Duterte, president of the cording to Chinese court documents and gapore daily, Mr Wang is listed as a "person
Philippines from 2016 to 2022, the coun­ Chinese-language news reports, it was of interest" in the case.
try's online casinos were encouraged. The founded as an online gambling firm by a Governments have woken up to this
industry generated some $35om in taxes Chinese-born individual, Wang Bingang, nightmare of gambling, scams and money
between 2017 and 2019, says Alvin Camba in 2012. Within a few years, it had become a laundering. In September the U N , China
of the University of Denver, who studies lucrative gambling syndicate based in the and the Association of South-East Asian
Chinese capital flows in South-East Asia. Philippines, then Cambodia, targeting Chi­ Nations teamed up to counter it. Italy and
At its peak it comprised an estimated 250- nese punters. In 2015 Mr Wang was arrested Spain recently announced crackdowns on
300 online gaming firms, mostly linked to and repatriated to China, where he spent Chinese money-laundering networks.
the Chinese online gambling industry and three years in prison for operating illegal They will all struggle. Only 2-5% of money­
in many cases also conduits for money gambling websites. After his release he laundering flows are intercepted, says
laundering, according to Dr Camba. Yet moved to Singapore, where he continued John Langdale of Macquarie University in
even many legal P0Gos, providing tax rev­ to run Hongli, says Jason Tower of the Un­ Australia. However hard governments try
enues to the Duterte government, were be­ ited States Institute of Peace, a think-tank to raise that figure, the crime gangs, incen­
ing used as a cover for other crimes, espe­ in Washington, who studies how Chinese tivised by their enormous profits, are likely
cially online scams. gambling firms operate in South-East Asia. to find new means in the depths of the in­
This is because some legal online gam­ He estimates Hongli has generated billions ternet to stay a step ahead. ■
bling firms that target Chinese gamblers
are run by criminal gangs. And as these
gangs have developed their online opera­
tions they have often discovered new ave­
nues for criminality. It is not uncommon,
Dog days fo r H a l l owee n
in Manila or Phnom Penh, to find a li­
TO K Y O
censed online gambling firm on one floor
A Tokyo d istrict synonymo us with fa ncy d ress and youthfu l fu n bans H a l loween
of an office tower, and a sister operation
running online scams on the floor below.
In recent months authorities in the Philip­
pines have raided several P0G os accused of
SfindforH strange
I B UYA, A D I ST R I CT in Tokyo known
its zesty pop culture, is a place to
clothes and youthful frolics
"No events for Halloween on Shibuya
streets". Outside the district's metro
station, a famous meeting-place, security
using "casino infrastructure as a cover to most days. Yet on Halloween the capital's guards blew whistles and hustled away
launder, move and generate proceeds of top tourist attraction traditionally takes anyone tempted to linger. Most mon­
crime," says Jeremy Douglas, head of the it up a gear. For years crowds of party­ strous to Shibuya devotees, police sealed
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime goers in fancy dress have filled Shibuya's off the spot's iconic statue of Hachiko, a
in South-East Asia. Such recent cases have neon-lit streets and celebrated Scramble legendary Japanese dog known for its
suggested the region's illegal online gam­ Crossing. In 2019 around 40,000 flocked loyalty. "We came here to see Hachiko.
bling industry is now much bigger than the to the district on Halloween. But this How could they do this?" complained
licensed industry in terms of both plat­ October 31st the mood was much less Olga, 31, a Russian tourist, looking dis­
form numbers and revenues. joyous. The killjoys of Shibuya's local consolately at the boarded-up dog.
In the Philippines, the surge in illegal government had banned Halloween The crackdown was in response to a
activity in and around licensed casinos festivities in the ward. Halloween tragedy last year in Seoul, in
turned opposition politicians and public Unwelcoming signs were plastered all which over 150 people were crushed to
sentiment against them. The number of over it, including a billboard reading: death. Officials feared Shibuya's narrow
P0G0s in the Philippines began declining alleys could see another disaster. Accord­
in 2020, says Dr Camba. Some crime gangs ing to Fukuda Mitsuru, a crisis-manage­
shifted to Cambodia and Myanmar, where ment expert, the fact that Halloween
they faced fewer strictures. Between 2014 festivities are a fairly recent foreign
and 2019, the number of casinos in Cambo­ import exacerbated such concerns.
dia rose by nearly 160%, according to the Yet the curbs are part of a broader
Office of the United Nations High Commis­ crackdown on fun-seeking in Shibuya.
sioner for Human Rights (oH C H R) in Complaining of excessive noise and
South-East Asia. The gangs are alleged to litter, the ward banned public alcohol
have trafficked thousands of people to consumption at certain times. Such
work in their casinos and "scam com­ measures seem unobjectionable in isola­
pounds" in those countries. tion. Drunken salarymen lying prostrate
As in the Chinese blockbuster "No More on pavements is a less edifying Tokyo
Bets", these victims are often lured by the spectacle. But combined with the Hal­
promise of a lucrative job, only to find loween ban they look to many like an
themselves trapped and forced to engage overreaction against youthful spirits by
in cybercrimes such as investment and ro­ heavy-handed and often aged officials.
mance fraud. The scam centres they work That was certainly the view of those
in generate billions of dollars in annual carousers who did bravely make it to
revenues, according to the 0 H C H R in Shibuya this week. "I come to Shibuya
South-East Asia. The gangs launder their every year for Halloween, so I feel be­
profits through their legal or illicit casi­ trayed," said Takeuchi Tetsuya, wearing a
nos-then typically invest the proceeds in Sti cking it to the man Mickey Mouse costume.
property in cities such as Singapore.

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 The Economist N ove m ber 4t h 2023 Asia 31

Lead poisoning in South Asia In a region where rapid policy respons­ Bangladesh, where a handful of wholesal­
es, let alone effective ones, are rare, Ban­ ers serve the entire turmeric market.
Death by turmeric gladesh's success is all the more impres­
sive. It was founded on recruiting support
The broader lessons from Bangladesh
are applicable to all sorts of policy pro­
from policymakers by explaining the pro­ blems, suggests Mahbubur Rahman of
blem to them in a credible way, says Jenna I C D DR , B. First, identify and cultivate the
Forsyth of Stanford University. Between most influential champions for change, he
2014 and 2018, she and her colleagues col­ says. The impetus they generate can then
D E LH I
lected data to demonstrate the link be­ be sustained by launching broad-based co­
Bangladesh leads; can India follow?
tween turmeric consumption and high alitions. In Bangladesh this meant rallying
T ask any South Asian.
key to a good curry­
U RM E R I C I S T H E
The spice supplies
lead exposure levels among pregnant
women in rural Bangladesh. Armed with
researchers, government, media outlets
and private firms to collaborate against
a distinctive flavour, aroma and bright yel­ these findings, the researchers were able to poisonous spices. It was hardly a secret
low colour. Many believe that consuming convince not just Bangladesh's food-safety recipe for success; but, as when making
turmeric, or even bathing in it, also has officials to take urgent action, but also the curry, the challenge lay in putting the in­
multiple heal th benefits. But in much of prime minister's office. gredients together judiciously. ■
South Asia, and perhaps far beyond, the The mass-media campaign that fol­
spice also exacts a terrible cost. lowed included graphic warnings about
That is because turmeric sold in these lead-tainted turmeric. Sheikh Hasina com­ India's air pol l ution
places is routinely adulterated with lead mented on the problem on national televi­
chromate in order to brighten i ts golden sion. Around 50,000 publi c notices about Filthy politics
hue. And exposure to lead, a neurotoxin, it were plastered in markets and public ar­
increases the risk of heart and brain diseas­ eas. At a big turmeric processor, research­
es. Children are especial ly vulnerable, be­ ers tested workers' blood samples to show
cause lead poisoning stunts cognitive de­ how lead was poisoning those responsible D E LH I
velopment. According to a study by the for pulverising, colouring and packaging
A power struggle threatens efforts to
Centre for Global Development, a think­ the tubers from which the spice is pro­
clean up Delhi's air
tank in Washington, lead poisoning duced; then publicised the results.
among children in poor countries explains
20% of the learning gap between them and
their peers in rich countries.
Turmeric adulteration was declared a
crime-and this change was also broad­
cast. A bust on a major turmeric producer
D last week of October, Del­
U R I N G TH E
hi's air quality began its seasonal shift
from unpleasantly foul to sickeningly
People in South Asia have the highest was aired on TV. Two wholesalers were filthy. As temperatures dropped and clouds
levels of lead in their blood, according to a prosecuted in a mobile court for sel ling heavy with brown particulate matter drift­
new study published in the Lancet Pla ne­ contaminated turmeric, a trial the media ed in from neighbouring states, the official
ta ry Health . Pinpointing the main cause was again encouraged to cover. The whole­ rating of air quality in India's capital went
had long seemed daunting, because lead is salers were convicted, fined and had much from "poor" to "very poor" and then "se­
everywhere in the region. Traces of the of their stock confiscated. vere" in places. This means that Delhi's air,
metal can be found in cooking utensils, The Stanford team hopes to help launch the most polluted of any big city, is now
cosmetics and other everyday products. similar campaigns in India and Pakistan, hazardous to breathe even for healthy peo­
But in 2019 a team of researchers from where they believe turmeric adulteration ple. It is likely to remain so for much of the
Stanford University and the International may be even more prevalent and deep­ next three months.
Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, rooted. Much of the poisonous pigment Air pollution in South Asia is estimated
Bangladesh (I C D D R, B ) , a health-research used in Bangladesh was imported from In­ to claim over 2m lives a year. Partly caused
institute, began focusing on turmeric dia. The spice supply chain is also longer by agricultural practices, including stubble
adulteration. Working with the country's and more complicated in India than in burning, it is most severe in northern In­
food-safety authority, and politicians right dia, especially in winter, when cold air
up to Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh's power­ traps pollutants in the mostly windless In­
ful prime minister, they then launched a do-Gangetic Plain bordered by the Himala­
nationwide campaign to root out the use of yas. A recent study suggests that the aver­
lead-chromate pigment in turmeric. It age resident of Delhi loses up to 12 years of
turns out to have been hugely successful, life to air pollution. According to official
according to a new study published in the figures, in 2022 Delhi's air was considered
journal Enviro n mental Resea rch. "good" or "satisfactory" on only 68 days.
In less than two years, the share of tur­ The average concentration of particularly
meric samples in Bangladeshi markets that harmful PM 2.5 particles-which can enter
contained detectable lead fell from 47% to the bloodstream and cause heart disease
0% . This elimination of lead adulteration and respiratory problems-was 98 micro­
had a near-immediate public-health im­ grams per cubic metre. That is nearly 20
pact. Among workers at turmeric mills, times the level considered safe by the
blood lead levels dropped by 30% on aver­ World Health Organisation.
age. Across Bangladesh the reduction in As sources of air pollution are often far
lead exposure probably saved thousands of from the worst-affected places, it can only
lives for little cost. A preliminary analysis be significantly mitigated by different au­
by Pure Earth, a New York-based environ­ thorities acting in concert. Yet partisan ri­
mental N G O, suggests the programme deli­ valry often gets in the way-as is illustrated
vered an additional year of healthy life for by the latest row between Delhi's govern­
$1. (Generating the same effect through ment, which is run by the Aam Aadmi Party
cash transfers is estimated to cost $836.) Choose a me l lower yel low (AA P) , and the central government of Na- ►►

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32 Asia The Economist N ove m ber 4t h 2023

Switching horses

Under Narendra Modi, India has swung from the Pa lestinians to Israel

Fcountry's usually gets short shrift

O R E I G N N E WS
in India. Yet for the past month the
television channels have been
ceasefire in Gaza; it objected that the text
did not condemn Hamas's assault.
The shift reflects I ndia's growing de­
India has also been increasing its ties
with Gulf Arab countries, especially
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emir­
dominated by wall-to-wall coverage of fence and commercial ties to Israel. Co­ ates. And it can ill afford to alienate
events in Israel and Gaza, mostly from operation between the two countries has them; it depends on them for much of its
Israel's perspective. News anchors in been deepening ever since Israel provided oil and goodwill towards an estimated
bulletproof vests stand in the desert India with military help during the Kargil gm expatriate Indian workers. Yet the
delivering breathless reports on the war against Pakistan in 1999. That was long fact that both countries have recently
aftermath of Hamas's atrocities in Israel before America took a serious interest in moved closer to I srael has allowed Mr
on October 7th. Talk-show hosts restage military co-operation with India. Over the Modi to effect his shift with alacrity.
the Palestinian terrorist group's attack past decade India has bought missiles, Even in the current crisis, the Saudis and
from Gaza with toy soldiers and minia­ drones and border-security equipment Emiratis appear reluctant to allow the
ture bulldozers. Weeks into the war, (and probably surveillance software, events in Gaza to cause a rupture in their
coverage remains intense. though it has not admitted this) from long-term rapprochement with Israel.
The media's fascination with Israel's Israel, making it the Israeli defence in­ Domestically, the Modi government's
plight and retribution coincides with a dustry's biggest foreign customer. pivot is essentially all upside. The Con­
marked shift in the Indian government's A bromance between Mr Modi and gress-led opposition has condemned it;
stance on the conflict between Israel and Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime min­ leaders of India's 200m Muslims have
the Palestinians. It has moved from ister, has deepened the relationship. So heavily criticised Israel's military re­
backing the Palestinians to more or less has the two countries' shared preoccupa­ sponse. Yet the Indian middle-class that
unqualified support for Israel. The pivot tion with fighting terrorism, especially the mostly backs Mr Modi is especially con­
is based on a realist reappraisal of Indian Islamist variant. Explaining the absten­ cerned about Islamist terrorism. Its
interests in the Middle East. It has also tion in the UN vote, SubrahmanyamJaish­ members look on Hamas's attack and
met with strong public supporter from ankar, India's foreign minister, said in a recall the tragedy Mumbai suffered in
Mr Modi's domestic supporters, which is speech on October 29th that India took a 2008, when Pakistani Islamists killed 175
gratifying for Narendra Modi's govern­ strong position on terrorism "because we people and wounded more than 300
ment ahead of state elections this month are big victims of terrorism". during a four-day rampage. It included
and a general election next year. an attack on aJewish community centre
In the past, like many countries in the in the city, where the terrorists murdered
global south, India tempered any expres­ the rabbi and his pregnant wife.
sion of support for Israel with expres­ There is a small risk the government
sions of concern for the Palestinians' will overplay its hand. As the civilian
plight. No more. Mr Modi took to X (for­ death toll in Gaza rises, India's Arab
merly Twitter) within hours of Hamas's partners might turn against the Israelis
assault to express his horror at the "terro­ and their backers more aggressively. Mr
rist attacks" and declare that "we stand in Modi has latterly hedged against that
solidarity with Israel". It took five days possibility. He has reached out to Pales­
for India's Ministry of External Affairs to tinian leaders, offering Indian condo­
reiterate, in response to questions from lences and humanitarian aid. Mean­
reporters, that India continued to sup­ while, his Hindu-nationalist henchmen
port a two-state solution to the conflict. are unrestrained in using the conflict to
On October 27th, in a departure from its stoke the Islamophobia that has pro­
usual voting record, India abstained as pelled their party's rise. Even if Mr Modi's
the UN General Assembly adopted a pivot becomes difficult abroad, it will
resolution calling for a humanitarian probably help him win elections.

► rendra Modi's BharatiyaJanata Party (BJ P). city administration, in turn, claimed the the AAP government is pending.
The argument pits Delhi's environment scuppering of the study was part of a pat­ The row is threatening a rare hopeful
ministry against the city's pollution con­ tern of government officials loyal to the BJ P anti-pollution effort. A regional anti-pol­
trol committee, which is headed by a bu­ deliberately undermining the AA P's work. lution body, encompassing Delhi, its
reaucrat on secondment from the national Whoever is right, the study is unlikely to be neighbouring states and several central­
home ministry. In late October the capital's resumed-a serious setback for pollution government ministries, was recently
environment minister claimed this official mitigation in the world's filthiest city. launched to co-ordinate smog mitigation
had unjustifiably withheld funding from a The row is part of a broader fight be­ policies. The fact that the AAP also governs
years-long study to measure the source of tween the AAP and centre over control of Punjab, where much of the stubble-burn­
pollutants in Delhi's air. The pollution con­ Delhi's entire bureaucracy. In August the ing happens, made that seem all the more
trol committee claimed to have identified central government passed a law in effect promising. Yet the body will not achieve
methodological flaws in the study which, awarding control to itself. This superseded much so long as the central and Delhi gov­
it said, were designed to absolve the AAP a Supreme Court verdict on the issue in the ernments prize partisan advantage over
government of blame for the problem. The AAP's favour. A constitutional challenge by making Delhi's air safe to breathe. ■

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 C h in a The Economist November 4th 2023 33

Xi J i n p i ng's p h i losophy er, to pursue economic reforms in the

1980s . The second combine is Mr Xi's idea:
Marx meets Confucius to sinicise Marxism by melding it with tra­
ditional Chinese culture.
The effort represents the culmination
of a radical turnaround for the party, which
once considered tradition its enemy. Dur­
ing the Cultural Revolution of 19 66-76, Mao
China's leader i s trying to fuse old ideologies in an effort to legitimise
Zedong's Red Guards destroyed Confucian
the Communist Party's rule
temples, burnt Confucian texts and dese­
I( A R L MARX and Confucius may have them negative (eg, "makes me sick") . But crated the sage's tomb. Young people de­
I lived 2,400 years apart, but on Chinese for those who can stomach it, the show is a nounced their elders, contradicting Confu­
state television they stroll together good way to understand Xi Jinping cianism's emphasis on filial piety. But after
through an ancient Chinese academy. In a Thought on Culture, the latest branch of Mao's death in 1976 the party warmed to
sun-dappled bamboo grove, a group of stu­ the Chinese leader's philosophy. Confucius, or at least to a simplified ver­
dent painters invite the two philosophers Other parts of Mr Xi's thinking empha­ sion of his teachings that emphasises defe­
to be their models. As the young people sise tighter Communist Party control over rence to authority. Deng allowed public
paint, Marx and Confucius chat. They are such things as diplomacy, defence and the celebrations of the philosopher's birthday.
impressed with China's high-speed trains, economy. Xi Jinping Thought on Culture, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, Deng's succes­
among other things. When the portraits announced in October, attempts to fuse sors, appropriated Confucian ideas. In the
are revealed, the thinkers are surprised. pride in Chinese tradition with loyalty to early 2000s Chinese scholars debated
Marx is depicted in a Tang-dynasty robe; the party. Its most important tenet is the whether Confucianism might even replace
Confucius is portrayed in a Western suit "two combines", party-speak for a decades­ Marxism as China's guiding ideology.
and tie. But both are delighted. ''I've been long process to make Marxism more Chi­ Mr Xi is putting an end to that debate.
in China for more than a hundred years," nese. The first combine refers to early ef­ Marxism is the "soul" and Confucianism
says Marx (in Mandarin) . 'i\ctually, I have forts to adapt Marxism to China's "specific the "root" of Chinese culture, he says. Nei­
been Chinese for a long time." Confucius reality". Such ideological flexibility al­ ther ideology can be abandoned. Instead,
chuckles, stroking his beard. Long hair lowed Deng Xiaoping, China's former lead- they must be merged.
looks a bit strange with the suit, he says, "When Marx Met Confucius" guides
but it make sense to keep changing. viewers through this new thinking. For
The scene is from "When Marx Met ➔ Also in this section much of the five episodes, the philoso­
Confucius", a television series created by phers sit on a stage in front of students and
34 Talks with Bhutan
the propaganda department in Hunan a rotating cast of scholars and party offi­
province and released in October. It is not 35 Quiet labour activism cials. A young woman wearing hanfu, tra­
popular. On Douban, a film website, it has ditional robes, plucks a g uzheng, or ancient
36 Chaguan: Mourning Li Keq iang
received only 100 or so reviews, most of zither, in the background. The philoso- ►►

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34 China The Economist N ove m ber 4t h 2023

► p hers converse with holograms of figures China, Bhutan and India

such as Vladimir Len i n and Mao, who ex­
plain how their thinking is compatible. Progress on one front
The programme's hosts then explain how it
all fits into Xi Jin ping Thought.
The show glosses over big differences
between Confucius, who believed hierar­
chies were necessary to mai ntain social or­ D E LH I
der, and Marx, who called for a proleta rian
Talks between China and Bhutan make India worried about a loss of influence
revolution. "You were trying to maintain
stability and I was seeking the liberation of
all mankind," says Marx. " But aren 't we
both seeking the greatest good for all hu­
C have had a rough
H I N ES E D I P LOMATS
ride in South Asia for most of the past
fou r years . Relations with India took a
dispute since a stand-off between Chinese
and Indian troops in Doklam in 2017.
In his meeting, Mr Wang said China was
mans?" When Marx mentions his vis ion of nosedive after a dead ly border clash in ready to complete the border talks as soon
a classless society, Confucius says he has a 2020 . Debt problems, political instability as possible and to establish formal ties
comparable co ncept called da to n g (great and mil itant attacks on Chinese nationals with Bhutan, describing it as a "historic op­
un ity) . "So we have many sim ilarities ! " have strained an "ironclad" frien dship portu nity". China's readout qu oted Mr Dor­
says Confucius. The stu dents applaud . with Pakistan. Mass unrest toppled a Chi­ ji saying he too was keen for an early bor­
The Cultural Revolution is men­ na-friendly p resident in Sri Lanka last year der settlement and progress towards estab­
ti oned-once. It did "great damage", says a after it plu nged into a debt cris is linked to lishing formal ties. A joint press release
host. Bu t Mao does n't get the blame. At one Ch inese lending. Bangladesh also shelved was less forthright, saying j u st that the two
point his spirit appears, assuring Marx and several infrastru ctu re proj ects tied to Chi­ sides agreed to continue pushing fo rward
Confucius that he was a faith fu l commu­ na's Belt and Road Initiative. with the border negotiations.
nist and defender of trad itional Chi nese Lately, though , China has boun ced back But Bhutan 's prime mi nister, Lotay
cultu re. Co nfucius nods approvi ngly. in some of the region -to Ind ia's dis may. Ts hering , suggested to an Indian newspa­
The show spends more time bashing The most rece nt Chinese success came per earlier in October that the end goal was
the West. A host blames foreign bullying of with Bhutan, a Himalayan ki ngdom of fo rmal ties with China. "Theoretical ly, how
Ch ina in the 19th century fo r a "long-term 770 ,000 people wedged between China can Bhutan not have any bilateral relations
cultural i n fe riority complex" (exacerbated and India. It is the only As ian cou ntry wi th China? The question is when , and in
by C hinese intellectuals, who at the time without formal diplomatic ties to China. what manner," he said. He also mentioned
claimed China's traditions made it weak) . Along with India, it is also one of only two that a possible land swap involving Dok­
The early reform e ra of the 1980s is remem­ cou ntries whose land borders with China lam had been p roposed .
bered as a d angerous period of "historical are officially disputed . And to compl icate The rapp rochement is geopol itically
n i h ilism", when Western ideas misled Chi ­ matters further, the disagreement covers important for several reasons. Bhutan does
nese people into criticising their society an area, known as the Doklam plateau, not have formal d i plomatic ties wi th any of
and government. "Can a cou ntry become where the I ndian, Chines e and Bhutanese the five permanent members (or PS) of the
strong if its economy develops but its sp irit borders meet (see map on next page) . U N Security Council-America, Britain,
is lost?" asks the host, quoting Mr Xi. The breakthrough was the fi rst ever vis­ China, France and Russia-largely owing
No is the i mplicit answer. A good thing, it to Beij ing by a Bhuta nese foreign minis­ to its history of isolationism and non­
then , that Mr Xi is restoring China's confi­ ter. Tandi Dorji met his Chinese cou nter­ alignment in the cold war. Opening formal
dence, the show claims . Not only that, he pa rt, Wang Yi, on October 23rd (see picture) ties with China cou ld lead Bhutan to do the
and the party are pu rsuing the com mon and China's vice-president, Han Zheng, the same with other PS members , drawing it
good worldwide, in contrast to dastardly following day. He also partici pated in the into the ongoing tussle for d iplomatic in -
Western countries. America exports clus­ two cou ntries' first talks on the frontier fluence around China's borders. ►►
te r bombs , while Japan dumps nuclear
wastewater into the ocean, says a host.
China, a " responsible great power", wou ld
never do such thi ngs, he adds. Marx is i m­
pressed. He congratulates China for revi­
talis i ng socialism and fulfilling his vision.
"When Marx Met Confu cius" is easy to
ridicule, but parts of its message are worry­
i ng. I n the last episode, a student asks Con­
fucius for advice on Taiwan, the self-go­
verning island that China claims. "We truly
h ave a traditional culture of peace, but
some Western countries only believe in the
law of the jungle," says the student. " I f they
bully us or obstruct our national uni fica­
tion, should we still speak to them of
peace?" Confu cius furrows his brow. Good­
ness should be met with goodness, but ha­
tred should be met with j ustice, he says. A
host j umps i n . China seeks peace, but if its
dignity and interests are hurt, it will use
military force to pursue national unifica­
tion, he says . I mages o f fighter j ets and
warships fill the screen. ■ No wa 11s between them

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 The Econom ist N ove m ber 4t h 2023 Ch i n a 35

CHI NA □
Where's my food ?
B E IJ I N G
How Ch i na's del ivery drivers q u ietly fight to i m p rove worki ng cond itions

Sil iguri _}
C drivers have a
H I NAS FOO D- D E L I VE RY
lot to complain about. Many work
long days, earning as little as s yuan
forcing the company to reject orders.
Even the threat of such action causes
some supervisors to bend rules on when
INDIA
corridor ($0.68) per delivery. Heavy rain and drivers get fined, says the study. Another
heatwaves do not stop them-in fact, piece of research, from 2021, found that
demand is highest during such weather. small-scale strikes were sometimes
200 km
Delivery apps promise fast turnarounds, effective in convincing contractors to
so drivers, most of whom work for con­ increase (slightly) how much they pay.
tractors, are sometimes fined for arriving It helps when the public gets in­
► But it is most significant for India. Un­ late (not to mention scolded by custom­ volved. In 2021 a company called Ele.me
der a treaty signed in 1949, India gained a ers). The only way to keep up, they say, is said it could pay only 2,000 yuan ($273)
formal right to guide Bhutan's foreign poli­ by running red lights and speeding. in compensation to the family of a deliv­
cy in exchange for free trade and security Accidents are common. ery worker who died on the job. After a
guarantees. The foreign-policy provision Drivers and couriers have pressed for backlash on social media, the company
was scrapped in 2007, but India has re­ improvements, holding around 400 agreed to cough up 600,000 yuan. Later
mained Bhutan's most important dip­ protests in the past five years, says China that year, the government demanded
lomatic and economic partner. Labour Bulletin, an N GO in Hong Kong. that delivery companies improve work­
Indian officials' chief concern is Dok­ Perceived troublemakers can face conse­ ing conditions for drivers and couriers.
lam because it is near the Siliguri corridor quences, such as being cut out of deliv­ But little has actually changed, says
(also known as "the chicken's neck" ) which eries. Nevertheless, a new study suggests China Labour Bulletin.
connects India's north-eastern states to that labour activism among drivers may More organised and ambitious labour
the rest of the country. Indian authorities actually be more widespread than previ­ activism would probably lead to more
have long feared that China, which won a ously thought. Some are using quieter gains for workers. But the Chinese gov­
brief border war with India over a nearby tactics to get their way. ernment is unlikely to tolerate it. For
part of the disputed frontier in 1962, might The research was carried out by Bo years Chen Guojiang, a food-delivery
try to sever the Siliguri corridor. Zhao of Fudan University in Shanghai driver in Beijing, posted videos online
India may now have accepted that dip­ and Siqi Luo of Sun Yat-sen University in trying to drum up support. At one point
lomatic ties between China and Bhutan are Guangzhou. One of the authors spent 18 he said he was talking to 14,000 drivers
inevitable, given the lure of Chinese trade months working as a delivery driver in via groups on WeChat, a messaging
and investment. But it wants a role in the southern China. During this time they service. He encouraged them to work
border talks and is sceptical about a land witnessed five small-scale strikes, none together and fight for better conditions.
swap. Progress might still be possible, giv­ of which was known to the public. Rather That was too much for the authorities. In
en that China and India both seem keen to than taking to the streets, upset drivers 2021 he was arrested for "picking quarrels
stabilise their border dispute. Since the simply logged out of the app that assigns and provoking trouble", a vague charge
deadly clash in 2020, they have pulled back deliveries during a period when demand commonly used to punish activists.
troops from several flashpoints, creating was high, such as at lunchtime. That was Small, quiet victories may be the best
buffer zones where neither side patrols. enough to cause delays to snowball, drivers can hope for.
But Indian officials also have concerns
about China's renewed efforts to enhance
its clout in a region that India considers its
backyard. Several South Asian states are in­
debted to China. The Maldives, where In­
dia had recently reasserted its influence,
elected a new pro-China president, Mo­
hamed Muizzu, in September. He has since
asked India to remove the roughly 70 Indi­
an troops stationed there to maintain radar
stations and other military assets.
In Sri Lanka, too, India has pushed back
against China's influence in recent years,
but the island nation has lately indicated
that it seeks strong relations with both of
Asia's giants. On October 25th Sri Lanka's
government allowed a Chinese scientific­
research vessel to dock in Colombo, its big­
gest city, despite American and Indian se­
curity concerns. Sri Lanka's president, Ra­
nil Wickremesinghe, also attended the Belt
and Road Forum in Beijing in October. The
geopolitical jockeying is sure to continue. D rivers of the world, un ite!
But China is still very much in the game. ■

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36 China The Economist N ove m ber 4t h 2023

Chaguan I Why Chinese mourn Li Keqiang

Some a re m issing the Commu nist Pa rty that sought leg itimacy through technocratic perfo rma nce
rule of law by Lord Denning, a British judge) . They are undaunted
by Li's actual record as prime minister from 2013 to 2023 . True, they
concede, that decade saw the party systematically dismantle
checks and balances on its power, and spurn the rule of law in fa­
vour of an iron-fisted alternative that Mr Xi calls "law-based go­
vernance". But in their telling, Li's humiliations make him an icon
for others whose hopes have been crushed in Xi-era China.
Chaguan is not about to tell Chinese exiles they are mistaken
about their own country. Indeed, despite the censors' best efforts,
social-media users have circulated images of floral tributes and
graffiti that do look like anti-Xi complaints. Many of these quote
celebrated Li sayings, in particular his pledge that China's opening
to the world is as irreversible as the flow of the Yangzi and Yellow
rivers. It is safe to assume the intention is to grumble about the in­
ward-looking nationalism of the Xi era.
For all that, it would be unfair to claim that every mourner for
Li is a protester. When this columnist visited Jiuzi, the crowds
were on their best behaviour, not defiant or fearful, as would be ex­
pected at an actual demonstration in China. Local farmers sold
cut-up sugar cane to visitors, as police directed traffic. When
asked why they had come, several mourners offered apolitical an­
swers about a local man who reached the top.

T H E UM B R E L LAS gave them away. Even from a distance, these

were unmistakably townsfolk, shielding themselves with
parasols from an autumn sun that no Chinese farmer would fear.
A mother who had brought her young son to lay flowers praised
Li as "a good premier who did practical things for the people". Yet
listen carefully, and some of that cautious praise was revealing.
On and on they trudged: a long column of outside rs, following a The mother noted that Li went to the epicentre of the covid-19 pan­
country lane between rice paddies and fishponds towards the vil­ demic, Wuhan, "at the earliest possible time". She did not mention
lage of Jiuzi, ancestral home of LiKeqiang, China's prime minister that Mr Xi took months to visit Wuhan and never visits natural di­
until his retirement earlier this year. sasters while they are under way. Perhaps the mother was not
They were mourners, turning out in their hundreds on this thinking of this. But it is a common gripe.
warm Sunday, a few days after Li's sudden death at the age of 68. Several people in Jiuzi noted that Li, the son of a rural official,
Most held bunches of white and yellow chrysanthemums, a funer­ knew poverty as a child. To them, this explained Li's focus on con­
al flower in China. Under their umbrellas some were formally crete problems, such as migrant workers not being paid wages
dressed in black and white. Parents cajoled young children to keep they are owed. One man contrasted Li's humble origins with Mr
walking, after parking cars in fields well outside the village. Xi's background, as the son of a party elder and Politburo member.
No Communist Party diktat had summoned these grieving citi­ Around China, sites linked to Mr Xi and his family have been
zens. Nor had convoys of buses brought them. Quite the opposite. lavishly restored as "red tourism" destinations for party pilgrims.
Official media outlets have played down Li's death. Instead, state In Jiuzi, a farmer recalled talk of beautifying the village after Li
media have devoted their efforts-as always-to extolling Xi Jin­ achieved high office. But whenever their illustrious ex-neighbour
ping. China's leader has spent more than a decade concentrating heard of special treatment for Jiuzi, he "would call and tell the lo­
power in his own hands, at the expense of government ministries cal officials not to do it," the farmer said approvingly.
and of Li Keqiang, who oversaw them as prime minister. The di­
minishing of Li continues even after his demise. Though terse, his The death of accountability
official obituary finds room for four tributes to the leadership of Two seemingly disparate groups-angry dissenters and nominal­
the party central committee "with Xi Jinping at the core". ly apolitical families laying flowers in Jiuzi-do in fact overlap.
For days, censors have deleted large numbers of online tributes The link involves accountability and Li's willingness to admit that
to Li, leaving only the blandest untouched. Reports abound of uni­ China still has serious problems. At a press conference in 2020, Li
versities banning students from organising memorials. There is a shocked some urbanites by reminding them that around 6oom
grim logic to this caution. More than once, a public figure's pass­ Chinese subsist on j ust 1,000 yuan ($137) a month. He also admit­
ing has offered Chinese citizens a chance to stage demonstrations, ted that covid had hit poor families hard. At other times he called
notably after a former party boss, Hu Yaobang, died in 1989. for checks on arbitrary government power and for the public to su­
For all that discouragement, thousands of Chinese have per­ pervise officials' work. Many Chinese recall those Li sayings now.
sisted in leaving flowers and handwritten notes for Li, from Jiuzi They are making a political point whether they admit it or not.
to cities where he lived and worked, such as Hefei and Zhengzhou. As a reform-era technocrat, Li served a one-party system that
Some observers, including Chinese intellectuals outside the sought legitimacy through governing performance. Many Chinese
country, detect in these tributes a challenge to Mr Xi, and a yearn­ miss that time. That is surely what they mean when they call Li
ing for a more reformist China. One exiled writer calls this mo­ practical and in touch with the masses. Today China has one-man
ment a "flowers revolution". Such intellectuals remember Li's rule and the party rejects external supervision. To admit to pro­
youth as a brilliant law student at Peking University, with an inter­ blems in this China is to doubt Mr Xi: an impossibility. China will
est in Western legal systems (he helped to translate a book on the be mourning that loss of accountability for a long time to come. ■

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 M idd le East & Africa The Economist November 4th 2023 37

The Gaza war superior firepower. Instead it will seek to

harass Israeli troops with guerrilla warfare.
Darkening days Israe l i military sources think they have
only a short window of opportunity in
which to operate with large formations in­
side Gaza. They will try to destroy tunnels
J ERUSALEM
and command centres to disrupt Hamas's
freedom of movement and divide its fight­
As conditions in Gaza deteriorate, Israel's generals think they could be
ers. In the coming weeks, Israeli generals
fighting Hamas there for a year
expect international pressure will force

T H E WO R L D shook, and then the ground

opened. On October 31st Israeli jets car­
ried out air strikes in Jabalia, a refugee
em Gaza, normally home to more than 1m
people, have been reduced to rubble.
Much of Israel's formidable border
them to revert to a more limited presence
inside Gaza. The war will shift to raids
against specific targets. These, they pred­
camp in northern Gaza. A witness reported fence with Gaza is gone. Hamas breached it ict, will take months, perhaps even a year.
hearing multiple explosions, which left in 29 separate locations during its attack, About two-thirds of northern Gaza's
huge craters. Videos from the site showed and Israel has dismantled more of it to fa­ population is thought to have heeded the
apocalyptic scenes: buildings crumpled cilitate the entry of armoured battalions. evacuation order. That still leaves hun­
and canted at odd angles, dead bodies be­ Israeli troops entered Gaza on October 27th dreds of thousands of people. Conditions
ing pulled from the rubble. Dozens were from two places: near Beit Hanoun in the in the south, supposedly a safe zone, are
killed. The Israeli army said it was target­ north, and at a point just south of Gaza city dire. More than half of Gaza's popula­
ing the underground headquarters of a Ha­ in the narrow waist of the 45km-long strip. tion-1.4m people-has been displaced.
mas commander, Ibrahim Biari, and mili­ Their goal is to bisect Gaza and gradually Shelters are overflowing: one U N facility in
tants with him, and that much of the dam­ encircle the northern part of the enclave, Khan Younis, the first city south of the
age was caused when tunnels collapsed. which they have told civilians to evacuate. evacuation line, now houses 22,100 people,
The war between Israel and Ham as, the Hamas does not want a head-on fight more than ten times its intended capacity.
militant group that controls Gaza, is near­ with an advancing I D F, which has vastly Essential supplies are still scarce.
ing the end of its first month, and it is al­ Around 250 lorries have entered Gaza since
ready the bloodiest conflict between Israe­ October 21st, when Israel lifted its veto on
lis and Palestinians since 1948. Since it be­ ➔ Also in this section aid deliveries. Martin Griffiths, the U N's
gan on October 7th, when Hamas mur­ top humanitarian official, calls the deliver­
38 Urban warfare: Gaza v I raq
dered more than 1,400 Israelis, the Israel ies thus far a "drop in the ocean compared
Defence Forces ( I D F) has struck more than 39 Reviving a two-state solution to the vast scale of needs". Israel still refus­
11, 000 targets in Gaza, far exceeding the es to allow shipments of fuel to Gaza, argu­
41 Trade trouble in Africa
pace of previous wars. The Hamas-run ing that this will eventually force Barnas
health ministry says that more than 8,800 41 Red berets in Africa fighters, who need it to light and ventilate
Palestinians have been killed, including their tunnels, to move above ground. The
42 Ethiopia's fighting talk
some 3,500 children. Large parts of north- sole power plant ran out of fuel on October ►►

Social Media Pakistan 0342-4938217

38 Midd le East & Africa The Economist N ove m ber 4t h 2023

► 11th. One-third of Gaza's hospitals and two­ ther into Israeli territory. On October 29th a U rban wa rfa re

Bloodier than
thirds of its clinics are closed, either be­ rocket hit a house in Kiryat Shmona, the
cause they have no fuel left or because they largest city on its northern border; another

in Iraq
were damaged by Israeli bombardment. barrage was aimed at Rosh Pina, 14km from
After weeks of delay, people with for­ the Lebanese border. Israel's retaliatory
eign citizenships were allowed to leave Ga­ strikes have also moved deeper into Leba­
za via Rafah on November 1st. Egypt also al­ non. Still, the view in both Israel and Leba­
lowed ambulances with injured Palestin­ non is that Hizbullah does not wish to ex­
The battle against IS in Mosul offers
ians into its territory for treatment. But it pand the fighting much further. Hassan
lessons-and warnings-to Israel
refuses to open its border for refugees. Nasrallah, the group's leader, was due to
As the fighting expands, so has the dys­
function in Binyamin Netanyahu's govern­
ment. Many Israelis hold the prime minis­
make a speech on November 3rd, his first
public appearance since the war began. His
silence is unusual. But he is under intense
W A R I N B U I LT-U P areas is always bloo­
dy, as the mounting death toll in Ga­
za shows-and as Americans generals
ter responsible for the failures leading up domestic pressure to keep Lebanon out of know from their experience in Iraq earlier
to Hamas's attack. Though the army and the war. A survey published in al-Akhbar, a in this century. Their first assault on the ci­
intelligence chiefs were also culpable, they Lebanese daily sympathetic to Hizbullah, ty of Fallujah in 2004 killed as many as 600
are much more popular than he is. Half of found that 68% of Lebanese opposed open­ civilians, or 0.2% of the population, com­
Israelis told pollsters they trust I D F com­ ing a full-fledged war with Israel. pared with 0.4 % in today's war in Gaza. A
manders to lead the country in war. Just a On October 31st the Houthis, a Shia mil­ second assault later that year killed around
tiny minority trusts Mr Netanyahu more. itant group that controls large parts of Ye­ 800 more and left most of the city's build­
This has enraged the prime minister, men, launched drones and ballistic mis­ ings damaged.
which compounds the divisions within Is­ siles at Israel. One was shot down by Israeli An even larger urban battle in recent
rael's war cabinet. Officials present at its missile-defences. The Houthis are keen to years was for the Iraqi city of Mosul, which
meetings have described a "traumatic" at­ show their support for Hamas, but their had been seized by the jihadists of Islamic
mosphere. The day after ground forces en­ drones are slow and their missiles inaccu­ State (Is) and was eventually reconquered
tered Gaza, Mr Netanyahu took to X (for­ rate. One explosive drone aimed at Israel by an American-led coalition that included
merly Twitter) and blamed intelligence hit Taba, an Egyptian resort town, and in­ Iraqi and Kurdish ground forces. At least
and security chiefs for their assessment, jured six people; another landed in Jordan. 9,000 civilians were killed in Mosul be­
before the October 7th attacks, that "Ha­ Though Iran continues to issue near­ tween 2016 and 2017, according to Airwars,
mas was deterred and sought accommoda­ daily threats, it seems reluctant to unleash a non-profit organisation that tracks harm
tion." He deleted the post after public criti­ its proxies. Raz Zimmt, an Iran-watcher at to civilians. That amounted to o.6% of the
cism from members of the war cabinet. the Institute for National Security Studies, population. More than 80% of the build­
The divisions are affecting military de­ an Israeli think-tank, notes that some Ira­ ings damaged were residential.
cision-making. They explain why I D F sol­ nian media outlets have tried to portray Is­ Those cases might suggest that the war
diers sat in staging areas near the Gaza rael's ground offensive as a failure. This in Gaza, though destructive, is not unusu­
strip for two weeks until the order to go in may make it appear as if Hamas can con­ ally so by historical standards-at least not
was given. "The army took a terrible hit but tinue the fight without Iranian help. "[It] yet. Yet there are key differences. The first
is now standing on its two feet," says one provides Iran with justification to avoid ex­ and biggest is the status of civilians. In Mo­
senior official. "The same can't be said for panding the conflict," says Mr Zimmt. sul I S attempted to prevent civilians from
the rest of the government." In Gaza, though, that conflict will ex­ fleeing, firing at them and land-mining
The public i s also furious with Mr Net­ pand. A day after the first strike on Jabalia, corridors out of the city. Many left none­

-
anyahu for his handling of the hostage cri ­ Israeli jets bombed the camp again. There theless. Between October 2016 and June
sis. At least 240 people were abducted dur­ will be many more scenes of devastation in 2017 nearly 900,000 departed-almost half
ing the Hamas raid and brought back to Ga­ what will be a long war. ■ of the pre-war population.
za. Four have been released, and on Octo­ Gaza's geography is less permissive
ber 30th Israel said its forces had freed a than any of these cases. Israel has told
soldier, Ori Megidish, captured during the around 1.1m civilians to evacuate the north
Hamas assault. There are ongoing talks via Mediterranean Sea of Gaza, but around a third of them have
Qatar, which has close ties with Hamas, stayed put. Many residents fear that if they
about a deal to free more hostages. leave they might never be allowed to re­
As the ground offensive grinds on, Isra­ Jabalia • turn. Those who do want to escape cannot
el will have to decide whether to release refugee Hanoun go south to Egypt, which does not want to
camp
more of the 360,000 reservists called up take responsibility for refugees and has re­
after Oct 7th. Their mobilisation is a grow­ fused to allow most over its border.
ing burden on the Israeli economy. Some Evacu ation zone
Israel is still bombing parts of southern
in the war cabinet, however, would like to boundary Gaza, albeit in more limited fashion than
take advantage of the country's war footing the north. "Locals can't really get away, nor
and attack Hizbullah, the Shia militant Khan , can fighting really occur in open areas
group in Lebanon that has been firing rock­ Yo unis away from urban centres", says Amos Fox,
ets and anti-tank missiles at Israel. an expert on urban warfare who has writ­
)
Those attacks have reached steadily fur- Rafah ISRAEL ten extensively about Mosul. "The urban
fight [in Gaza] is self-contained and likely
♦
Rafah far more costly than anything we've seen
f) More online crossing in the past few years." Those civilians who
have moved south face a growing humani­
For all of our coverage of the war between EGYPT Gaza Stri p, Nov 1st 2023 tarian crisis.
Israel and Hamas please go to: ■ Israel i mil itary operations In Mosul the World Health Organisa­
Sources: Liveuama p; OpenStreetMap
economist.com/israel-hamas tion was able to establish trauma stabilisa- ►►

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 The Econom ist N ove m ber 4t h 2023 M id die East & Africa 39

► tion points to p rovide urgent medical at­ A final d ifference is the nature of battle­ The two-state sol ution

Still out of reach

tention within 10-15 minutes of the front field intelligence. At the outset of this war
l ine, with larger field hospitals another the Israelis would have had a lot of i ntelli­
hou r away. The Israel i army has o nly a gence on Hamas's Gazan infrastructure
s mall nu mber of "humanitarian-affairs of­ collected over years. Many targets would
ficers" embedded in its fighting units who have been hit i n the first week of the cam­
are supposed to help civilians. paign. Air forces must then move to "dy­ J ERUSALEM
Another d ifference is the intermingling namic" targeting-finding and striking Even in war, optimists wonder if the
of Gaza's civilian and military i n frastruc­ targets u nknown at the start of the war. peace process could be revived
tu re. I n I raq IS had held Mosul for a little This is when most cases of civilian harm
over two years when the battle to remove
them began . Even i n that short period, it
had built i mpressive multilayered defenc­
occur, says the same expert.
In Mosul local civilians, many of whom
hated I S , provi ded a wealth o f human intel­
Ithisleaders
N TRYI NG TO plan for the future, world
are looking to the past. "When
crisis is over, there has to be a vis ion of
es, says Rupert Jones , a retired British ma­ ligence, or H UM I NT-information passed what comes next, and in our view it has to
jor-general who was deputy commander of on by sou rces o n the ground-to Iraqi forc­ be a two-state solution," said Joe Eiden,
the anti- Is coalition . es, hel ping them to target I S fighters . By America's president, in one of his many
Hamas , by contrast, was founded i n Ga­ contrast, during the battle for Raqqa, a Syr­ public statements about the nearly month­
za in 1987 and has much deeper roots there. ian city held by I S, in 2017, command ers , long war in Gaza. Rishi Sunak, the B ritish
For half a century it has been fu lly integrat­ with fewer infantry forces on the ground, prime m inister, has made similar com­
ed into Gaza's social fab ric and it has ru n were "starved of local information". They ments ; so has Em manuel Macron, the
the strip for 16 years . Hamas's defences fou nd the mselves rel iant on aerial surveil­ French p resident. An emergency meeting
have been built around-and under-the lance, which cannot see inside buildings, of the Arab League last month ended with a
territory's civilian infrastructure. according to a report by the RAN D Corpora­ call for "serious negotiati on s" towards a
A thi rd difference is tactics. Israel's tion, a th ink-tank. two-state solution .
armed forces say they pl ace great emphasis Israel i intel ligence has already suffe red When Israel left Gaza i n 2005 , uproot­
on civil ian protection. Non etheless, Isra­ one serious failure in Gaza , havi ng missed ing some 8, 000 Jewish settl ers from a terri­
el's bombardment of Gaza has been i ntense signs of Hamas's preparations for the at­ tory it had co ntrolled since 19 67, no one
by past standards . It dropped 6, 000 bombs tack of October 7th. It will have good elec­ knew qu ite what to make of the decision.
on the te rrito ry in the first six d ays of the tronic intell igence on the strip, aided by Some hoped that Is rael's willi ngness to
war. In Mosul the American-led coal ition the phalanx of American ai rcraft patrolling cede occupied territory would be a trend, a
dropped 7, 000 over two months in the in the eastern Mediterranean. step towards a final settlement wi th the
most intense period of bombi ng. But Hamas is likely to have the intel li­ Palestinians. Others saw a can ny pl oy: re­
Tactics are shaped by how an army gence advantage on the grou nd, argues Mr linquishing control of Gaza might help Is­
views the stakes of a war, the nature of the Fox, with locals offeri ng a steady flow of rael entrench its control of the West Bank.
enemy and that of the surround ing civil­ H UM I NT to the group as the I s rael i forces The latter view tu rned out to be co rrect.
ians . For Israel , the war in Gaza is "existen­ advance. "This fl i ps the H UM I NT s ituation Similar con fusion has emerged since
tial" in a way that Mosul was n't, says An­ that we saw in Mosul on its head ," he says . October 7th, when Israel began planning a
thony King of Exeter Un iversity. ''The I D F will have to methodically fight ground invasion of Gaza after Hamas, the
I n Mosul, Iraq's politicians, from the through better planned and prepared de­ militant Islamist grou p that controls the
prime minister down, insisted that great fences ... than they otherwise would." The territory, massacred 1,400 Israelis. Pales­
emphasis be placed on civilian protection. result, alas, will be yet more civi lians ti nians fear the war will lead to a second
Lieutenant-General Basim al-Tai , a senior killed . The past three weeks have been hard naqba ("catastrophe") , referri ng to the
I raqi officer, was in charge of the humani­ on Gaza's population. The comi ng weeks mass displacement that accompanied Isra­
tarian side, "carrying the weight of the Mo­ could be even harder. ■ el's birth in 1948. Far-right I s raeli ministers
sul popu lation on his shoulders," says hope it will offe r a chance to reassert con­
General Jones . "He cared deeply about the trol over Gaza and rebuild the d ismantled
civilians." Caroline Baudot, an advi ser i n Jewish settlements. A few hopeful sorts ,
the civilian-protection u nit i n the I nterna­ among them Mr E iden , hope it will provide
tional Com mittee of the Red Cross ( I C RC) a chance to revive the comatose Israeli-Pal­
i n Geneva, agrees : "The commander's in­ estinian peace process.
tent in Mosul was extremely clear." For now, that is a far-off dream : Israeli
Under the laws of war, hospitals lose generals expect months of fighting. But
their special protection if used for military both they and many foreign powers hope
pu rposes . Even so, armies can attack them eventually to transfer control of Gaza to the
only "after due warni ng" and "a reasonable Palesti nian Authority (PA) , which governs
time limit". In Mosul IS used the city's hos­ parts of the West Bank, probably with a
pital as a stronghold . Commanders spent peacekeeping force brought in to help the
weeks pondering whether to attack it, says transition. And they doubt that Mahmoud
General Jones, considering other options Abbas , the Palestinian president, would re­
such as the use of snipers . "Slowly, over turn to Gaza without a guarantee of mean­
time, it became clear it was no longer a ingful talks about Palestinian statehood.
functional hospital." I n the end it was Any plan for the "day after" i n Gaza, i n
struck o nly after Iraq's then prime minister other words, needs t o consider the pos­
had approved . " I've never heard of any case sibility of a two-state solution. The broad
where you have a few days to evacuate and outl i ne has not changed much for decades.
dismantle an entire hospital," says an ex­ A Palestinian state would be formed i n Ga­
pert on wartime civilian harm , reflecting za and the West Bank; Israel would swap
on the Gaza case. "It's just not possible." No safe opti ons chunks of its territory for portions of the ►►

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40 M idd le East & Africa The Econo mist N ove m ber 4t h 2023

► West Bank where it has built large settle­ actors would have to agree to do so as well. that only 32% of lsraeli Jews would support
ments . Jerusalem would be d ivided, with Other thi ngs could be easier. A two­ one, down from 47% five years earlier. Is­
some sort of joint control over the old city. state solution would be costly. Even before raeli Arabs, who make u p one-fifth of the
A small number of Palestinian refugees the war, the Palestinians would have ex­ population, still endorsed the idea, al­
could return to Israel, while the rest would pected help to rehabilitate Gaza; the bil l though their support has also d ropped ,
settle in either Palesti ne or their present will be much higher now. At the failed from 87% i n 2017 to 71% in 2022. A plurality
homes els ewhere. Israel would expect a Camp David su mmit in 2000 negotiators of Israel i Jews preferred the status quo.
Palestinian state to be demilitarised . discussed a $3obn fund to compensate Pal­ Support has plummeted even further
After two decades of serious talks­ estinian refugees for lost property. Gulf among Palestinians. A survey in June 2023
from the hopeful era of the Oslo accords in states such as Saudi Arabia and the United by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and
the early 1990s, through a desultory at­ Arab Emirates (UA E) , which have boosted Survey Research found that just 28% still
tempt under Barad( Obama-the peace ties with Israel in recent years , might be support a two-state solution. Some 53% of
process ground to a halt in 2014 . There have more willing to stump up the cash to show them backed the idea ten years ago, though
been no serious negotiations since. they have not abandoned the Palestinians. just 39% thought it feasible.
Negotiato rs cannot quite pick up where The biggest problem, however, re mai ns Optimists hope that these results are
they left off. At the end of 2021 there were not the details of a solution but the politi­ squishy: people are unlikely to su pport
465,400 Israeli settlers living in the West cal wi ll to negotiate and implement one. somethi ng they think impossible. A mean­
Bank, up from 116, 300 when the Oslo ac­ There will be no serious peace process with ingful peace process could push the poll
cords were signed in 1993. They are a grow­ Binyamin Netanyahu's coalition of far­ numbers back up. " I don't think our people
ing obstacle to peace. Most are concentrat­ right and religi ous politicians . That co­ would reject a chance to end the occupa­
ed in areas that would probably be ceded to alition is unl ikely to su rvive long after the tion," says one former Palestinian minis­
Israel in an agreement, bu t their political Gaza war, and Mr Netanyahu's opponents ter. But the events of recent weeks could
clout (they wou ld oppose su rrend eri ng hope that the next government will be just as well harden both sid es agai nst the
even land that they do not live on) has in­ more amenable to tal ks with the Palestin­ idea of com p rom ise.
creased along with th ei r popul ation. ians. "We learned a lesson that we need to As ever in Israel , some o f the strongest
separate fro m them in a good way," says supporters of ending the occupation are
Context is everything one centrist Israeli lawmaker. "It's ti me to the men tasked with ru nning it. In the
The regional pictu re is also more compli­ start that discussion." But I s raeli politi­ wake of the Hamas attack, few Israelis are
cated. I n 2002 the Arab Leag ue endorsed a cians fro m the centre and left have avoided talking publicly about the two-state sol­
Saud i proposal that promised Israel nor­ the issue in public for more than a decade. ution-or any other sol ution for the con­
mal relations with Arab cou ntries after a On the Palestinian side, Hamas has al­ flict. But defence officials are discussing it
two-state solu ti on: by ending its conflict ways been eager to play spoi ler. Its fi rst sui­ in closed rooms . That is partly because the
with the Palestinians, Israel could end all cide-bombings in the 1990s hel ped to scut­ desired end state of the war wi l l shape the
i ts regional con fl i cts . The Arab Peace I n i­ tle the Oslo process, and the carnage i t war itself and because the Netanyahu gov­
ti ative was meant to be a powe rful ind uce­ wrought du ring the second in tifada ernment is incapable of holding a serious
ment. I s rael might be more will ing to take (" upris ing") from 2000 to 2005 tu rned a debate on Israel 's long-term strategy.
its boot off the Palesti nians if it felt that generation of Israelis agai nst the idea of Then there is the question of who wi ll
other threats would then di ssipate . compromise. Perhaps Hamas will fade play mediator. Though Russia and China
But the region has changed since 2002. away after the war in Gaza-but another both aspire to a role in Middle East peace­
Some militias, from Hizbullah in Lebanon group cou ld take its place. maki ng, neither has much leverage or
to the Hou this in Yemen, are now more po­ Ordinary people on both sides have lost credibility to assume it. The European Un­
werful than the states they call home. It faith in the two-state solution. A poll in ion could pos ition itself as an honest bro­
wou ld not suffice for Arab governments to September 2022 by the Israel Democracy ker but it is not taken seriously.
end their conflicts with Israel: non-state Institute, a non-partisan think-tank, found That leaves America. Mr E iden spent
the fi rst th ree years of his presidency try­
ing to ignore the conflict. He will have
other things on his mi nd in 2024-and nei­
ther Israelis nor Palestinians are l ikely to
embark on a peace process with a president
who could soon be turfed out. If Mr Bi den
wins in 2024 , he could try to lead efforts .
Donald Tru mp would be another story.
In January 2020, after years of trail ing a
supposedly serious peace plan devised by
Jared Kush ner, his son-in-law, he finally
unveiled it. The plan, almost laughably bi­
ased in favour of Israel, was dead on arriv­
al . It would have given the Palestinians just
75% of the occu pied West Bank, i n three
cantons linked by h ighways . Israel would
have kept the Jordan valley, the breadbas­
ket of the territory, and compensated the
Palesti nians for thei r loss by ceding a few
patches of barren desert i n the Negev. Pal­
estine's capital would have been li mited to
a few d estitute suburbs of east Jerusalem .
The Palesti nians, unsurprisingly, refused
The city that d reams of peace even to discuss the proposal. ■

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 The Economist N ove m ber 4t h 2023 Mid die East & Africa 41

Trade and dip lomacy Some investors have packed up and left. institutions that our values align with,"
"Once bitten, twice shy: when will people says Joy Basu, an American deputy assis­
Preferential trade come back to those zones?" asks another,
who is weighing up how long to stay.
tant secretary of state for African affairs,
adding that human rights and democratic
Even South Africa, the biggest exporter principles in turn create "the right envi­
under AGOA , cannot take its trade access for ronment to deepen trade and investment".
granted. America is alarmed by its close All that will be moot if Congress does
military ties to Russia. Senior congress­ not extend AGOA beyond its current expiry
America views trade with Africa as a
men have questioned whether the country date of 2025. The uncertainty has caused
lever of diplomacy
should remain eligible for AG OA and 45% of American clothing firms to reduce

Iisrican
N T H E EYESof American officials, the Af­
Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)
about "more than just trade". The flag­
pushed for this year's forum to be moved
elsewhere. That did not happen, but only
after a South African delegation flew to
their sourcing from Africa, according to an
industry survey. Some senators have called
for a swift renewal to "counter the malign
ship policy grants duty-free access to Washington to patch up things. influence of China, Russia, and other for­
America for almost 7,000 products from As AGOA is an act of Congress, not a two­ eign actors". In Washington, trade with Af­
sub-Saharan Africa. To qualify, countries way trade deal, countries have little re­ rica has long been viewed as both a boost to
must respect human rights, uphold labour course when they are booted off. Some Af­ development and a spur to good gover­
standards, promote a market-based econ­ ricans accuse America of bullying. "We nance. It is increasingly seen as a contest
omy and eliminate barriers to American want to be supporting governments and between great powers, too. ■
investment, among other criteria.
But can a system of trade preferences
also be a tool of foreign policy, without sti­
fling trade's potential for development?
That question will rumble beneath the sur­
Fi rebra nd i ng
face as American and African officials
gather in Johannesburg between Novem­
How the red be ret became Africa's most political hat
ber 2nd and 4 th for the annual AGOA forum.
Out of 45 countries that could benefit from
the scheme, ten are already ineligible. On
October 30th President Joe Biden said four
Fdonbon net robaseball
MAGA
wore the
R E N C H R EVO LU T I O N AR I ES
uge. Fans of Donald Trump
caps. For young activ­
Marxist president of Burkina Faso who
was assassinated in 1987. A man of perso­
nal modesty and striking looks, he re­
more would be kicked out next year, while ists in Africa, the red beret is de rig ueu r. fused to let his portrait be hung in public
Mauritania would be reinstated after mak­ Julius Malema, a South African firebrand, buildings. But in death his image is
ing progress on workers' rights. says the hat is "a revolutionary symbol of everywhere on the pan-African left. He
None of the new suspensions are sur­ defiance and resistance". fi rst wore the red beret because he was a
prising. Niger and Gabon have recently had It is sported by supporters of Mr soldier (who staged a coup). He said he
coups. The Central African Republic (CA R) Malema and his Economic Freedom later took inspiration from Che Guevara,
has become a second home for trigger­ Fighters, a populist party. It is also worn to whom he is often compared.
happy Russian mercenaries. Uganda has a by followers of Bobi Wine, a singer and Ibrahim Traore, an army captain who
long record of human-rights violations opposition leader who is trying to unseat led a coup in Burkina Faso last year,
and this year passed a law that imposes an autocratic president in Uganda. Activ­ mimics Sankara's rhetoric and headgear.
strict punishments for homosexuality, in­ ists from Ghana to Zimbabwe pull on But it is generally civilian activists who
cluding the death penalty in some cases. berets of various hues. wear berets to project radical vibes.
Ugandan human-rights groups says that The head that launched a thousand The beret can be worn in ironic re­
LG BT people have been tortured, arrested hats belonged to Thomas Sankara, a buke of soldiers and the police. Omoyele
and sacked, among other abuses. Sowore, a Nigerian activist, has contrast­
For many governments the conse­ ed his orange beret with the black ones
quences are more reputational than eco­ worn by police officers, who have a rep­
nomic. America buys just 6% of sub-Saha­ utation for brutality. Yet the cap can also
ran Africa's goods exports; China and the make one a target of the state. In Uganda,
E U each purchase three times as much. beret-topped followers of Mr Wine have
Even though the Ugandan government is been convicted by army courts for wear­
irked by America's warnings to firms about ing military uniforms, an offence that
the risks of doing business in the country, can lead to life imprisonment.
it can probably live without AGOA, which "The beret evokes and carries a sense
applied to just $12m of its exports last year. of liberation fighting," says Oliver Barker­
Niger and the CAR export next to nothing Vormawor, a convener of a Ghanaian
under the scheme. youth movement that hopes to launch its
In a handful of countries AG OA really own version. For many young Africans
does make a difference, especially in cloth­ who look across the continent and see
ing. There, a suspension can put a brake on that promises of democracy, equality and
economic development. Ethiopia has been dignity are unfulfilled, the beret is surely
ineligible for almost two years over abuses a symbol of a revolution that is not yet
by soldiers and rebels during a civil war. corn plete. For many others, though, it
But that was hardly the fault of the young may simply be that it is, as Mr Wine has
women who stitch shirts in industrial said, "more fashionable" than dowdy sun
zones, and who were laid off in their thou­ hats worn by Yoweri Museveni, his age­
sands when the loss of duty-free access Stylish Sankara ing adversary-and by their parents.
made Ethiopian exports uncompetitive.

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42 Middle East & Africa The Economist N ove m ber 4t h 2023

Red Sea geopolitics co-exist in this region," says an Ethiopian

opposition leader. "War is inevitable."
Ports in a storm Increased tensions with Eritrea could
exacerbate Ethiopia's existing internal
conflicts. Under the peace deal Abiy struck
with the T P L F last year, it was supposed to
disarm and demobilise its fighters while
Eritrea was meant to withdraw its forces
from Tigray. But Eritrea remains in control
Abiy Ahmed's push for access to the Red Sea has rattled his neighbours
of at least 52 districts of northern Tigray,

N j angling once again in the

E RV E S A R E
Horn of Africa, just a year after the end
of a brutal civil war in Ethiopia that led to
along both sides of Ethiopia's border with
Eritrea in recent weeks. A well-connected
source in Addis Ababa says that the armed
according to the region's interim adminis­
trators. In recent weeks, Eritrean troops
have expanded their presence along the
the deaths of perhaps 385,000-600, 000 forces are exercising in preparation for an­ border areas, reports a visiting foreign re­
people. Now foreign diplomats and an­ other conflict. On October 22nd the head of searcher. Tigrayan forces have handed over
alysts fear that in his bid to get a port on the the air force warned his troops to ready most of their heavy weaponry to the Ethio­
Red Sea, Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia's prime themselves for war. pian army. But they still have some
minister, risks sparking another conflict, Ethiopia's Red Sea conundrum dates 200,000 men and women under arms.
this time next to one of the world's busiest back to at least the start of its bloody border Another party in the multi-sided civil
shipping routes (see map) . war with Eritrea in 1998. Though a ceasefire war in Tigray was Ethiopia's Amhara re­
In a jingoistic documentary aired on was reached in 2000, the two countries re­ gional government, which sent its own mi­
state television on October 13th, Abiy ar­ mained at loggerheads. Ethiopia could not litias and troops to fight alongside Abiy's
gued that landlocked Ethiopia must ac­ ship goods through Assab and Massawa. federal forces. These troops were also sup­
quire a port on the Red Sea to break its Now 90-95% of its external trade flows posed to have withdrawn from disputed
roughly 120m people out of a "geographic through Djibouti, to which it pays some territories inside Tigray that they occupied
prison". Turning to history, he quoted a $1. 5bn a year in port fees. at the start of the war. But they have yet to
19th-century Ethiopian warrior who had In 2018, soon after Abiy came to power, do so. Instead, they have turned on Abiy's
proclaimed that the Red Sea was the coun­ he ended the nearly two decades-long government, accusing it of betraying Am­
try's "natural boundary". stand-off with Eritrea by signing a peace hara's interests. In August they fought fed­
Ethiopia, Abiy noted, had indeed been a deal with its dictator, Issaias Afwerki. eral forces for control of several towns.
sea power with a navy and two ports, Mas­ Though the contents of the deal were never
sawa and Assab. It lost these along with the made public, it was generally understood Shifting alliances
rest of its coastline in 1993, when E ritrea se­ that Ethiopia would regain tax-free access With so much bad blood and so many
ceded to form a new country. Now, Abiy to Eritrea's ports in exchange for returning arm ed groups jostling for influence within
suggested, the moment was nigh to right a disputed territories it had occupied since Ethiopia, Abiy's threats are extremely reck­
historic wrong. "It's not a matter of luxury," the end of the war. The following year Abiy less when it comes to his own country's se­
he insisted, "but an existential one." For­ was awarded the Nobel peace prize. curity. They are damaging to Ethiopia's re­
eign diplomats say this reflects what Abiy But plans for Ethiopia to use Eritrea's lations in the wider region. Djibouti,
has been declaring in private for months. ports never materialised. Instead, two which now provides Ethiopia's main ac­
Ethiopia's neighbours are rattled, par­ years later, a power struggle between Abiy cess to the sea, has furiously responded
ticularly because Abiy had not raised the and Tigray's ruling party, the Tigrayan Peo­ that its "territorial integrity cannot be dis­
issue with them before making his threats. ple's Liberation Front (T P L F) , sparked civil puted". Somalia, similarly, insisted its ter­
"The whole country thinks the man is war. Eritrean troops joined in on Abiy's ritorial integrity and sovereignty are "sac­
mad," says an adviser to Somalia's presi­ side to fight against the T P L F , which Issaias rosanct and not open for discussion".
dent. A fight over ports would further des­ has long hated. Some Ethiopian officials play down
tabilise a region already in turmoil. Sudan, The two leaders have fallen out since Abiy's fighting talk. "It's about diverting at­
Ethiopia's neighbour to the west, has been then, possibly because Ethiopia signed a tention from domestic issues," says an ally
plunged into what the U N calls "one of the peace deal with the T P L F in late 2022. Each of the prime minister. Although the Eritre­
worst humanitarian crises in recent histo­ sees the other as a threat to their influence an port of Assab, which was once part of
ry". Fighting between two warlords there over the region. ''Abiy and Issaias cannot the former Ethiopian Empire, has particu­
has forced almost 7m people from their lar symbolic value for Ethiopians, Abiy has

□
homes. And Ethiopia itself faces simmer­ also floated the possibility of negotiating
SAU D I ARABIA
ing rebellions in Oromia, its largest and Red for a strip of land around the ancient port
most populous region, and Amhara. Sea @ of Zeila in the breakaway Somali region of
Abiy says that Ethiopia's demands can S U DAN
ERITREA
• Massawa YEMEN
Somaliland. In exchange, Ethiopia might
be met through peaceful negotiations with offer to recognise Somaliland statehood.
• Assab
ifigray
its neighbours. Better to discuss the matter ''Abiy has no interest in being part of an­
now, he argues, than to risk an armed con­ Gulf ofAden other conflict for the moment," says an an­
DJ I BOUTI
flict in the future. But Abiy has reportedly alyst in Addis Ababa.
• zeila
said in private that he is ready to use force But the Ethiopian prime minister is no­
Somali land
if talks fail. "If it is not achieved by other toriously unpredictable. "Nobody except
means, war is the way," says an Ethiopian himself can be certain if he is serious or
official. A few days after the broadcast Abiy not," says a T P L F official. Little more than
flexed his muscles with a military parade three years ago Abiy insisted he would not
in the capital, Addis Ababa, in which the I N DIAN go to war in Tigray. Many diplomats and re­
army displayed its new weapons including SOMALIA OCEAN gional leaders took him at his word, which
a Russian-made electronic-warfare sys­ UGANDA KE NYA 500 km he soon broke. They would be wise not to
tem. Troop movements have been detected make the same mistake again. ■

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 Eu rope The Economist November 4th 2023 43

U kra ine stuck in minefields on the approaches to

Bakhmut in the east, his Western-supplied
War of attrition equipment getting pummelled by Russian
artillery and drones. The same story un­
folded on the offensive's main thrust in the
south, where inexperienced brigades im­
mediately ran into trouble.
"First I thought there was something
An interview with Ukraine's commander-in-chief on the breakthrough
wrong with our commanders, so I changed
he needs to beat Russia
some of them. Then I thought maybe our

F17 Ukraine
IVE MONTHS into its counter-offensive,
has managed to advance by just
kilometres. Russia fought for ten
lost at least 150,000 dead. In any other
country such casualties would have
stopped the war." But not in Russia, where
soldiers are not fit for purpose, so I moved
soldiers in some brigades," says General
Zaluzhny. When those changes failed to
months around Bakhmut in the east "to life is cheap and where Mr Putin's refer­ make a difference, the general told his staff
take a town six by six kilometres". Sharing ence points are the first and second world to dig out a book he once saw as a student.
his first comprehensive assessment of the wars, in which Russia lost tens of millions. Its title was "Breaching Fortified Defence
campaign with The Economist in an inter­ An army of Ukraine's standard ought to Lines". It was published in 1941 by a Soviet
view this week, Ukraine's commander-in­ have been able to move at a speed of 30km a major-general, P.S. Smirnov, who analysed
chief, General Valery Zaluzhny, says the day as it breached Russian lines. "If you the battles of the first world war. ''And be­
battlefield reminds him of the great con­ look at NATO's text books and at the maths fore I got even halfway through it, I realised
flict of a century ago. "Just like in the first which we did, four months should have that is exactly where we are because just
world war we have reached the level of been enough time for us to have reached like then, the level of our technological de­
technology that puts us into a stalemate," Crimea, to have fought in Crimea, to return velopment today has put both us and our
he says. The general concludes that it from Crimea and to have gone back in and enemies in a stupor."
would take a massive technological leap to out again," General Zaluzhny says sardoni­ That thesis, he says, was borne out as he
break the deadlock. "There will most likely cally. Instead he watched his troops get went to the front line in Avdiivka, also in
be no deep and beautiful breakthrough." the east, where Russia has recently ad­
The course of the counter-offensive has vanced by a few hundred metres over sev­
➔ Also in this section
undermined Western hopes that Ukraine eral weeks by throwing in two of its armies.
could use it to demonstrate that the war is 44 U kraine's drone wa rs "On our monitor screens the day I was
unwinnable, forcing Russia's president, there we saw 140 Russian machines
45 The woes of the French left
Vladimir Putin, to negotiate. It has also un­ ablaze-destroyed within four hours of
dercut General Zaluzhny's assumption that 46 Poland's milita ry ambitions coming within firing range of our artillery."
he could stop Russia by bleeding its Those fleeing were chased by "first-per­
- Cha rlemagne is away
troops. "That was my mistake. Russia has son-view" drones, remote-controlled and ►►

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44 Eu rope The Economist N ove m ber 4t h 2023

► carrying explosive charges that their oper­ drones, and of electronic warfare which has a population three times and an econ­
ators simply c rash into the enemy. The can prevent them from flying. omy ten times the size of Ukraine. " Let's be
same picture unfold s when U krainian General Zaluzhny's assessment is so­ honest, it's a feudal state where the cheap­
troops try to advance. General Zaluzhny bering: there is no sign that a technological est resou rce is human life. And for us ... the
describes a battlefield in which modern b reakthrough, whether in drones or i n most expensive thi ng we have is our peo­
sensors can identi fy a ny concentration of electronic warfare, i s arou nd the corner. ple," he says. For now he has enough sol­
forces , and modern precision weapons can And technology has its limits . Even in the diers . But the longer the war goes on, the
destroy it. "The simple fact is that we see fi rst world war, the arrival of tanks in 1917 harder it will be to sustain. "We need to
everything the enemy is doing and they see was not sufficient to break the dead lock on look for this solution , we need to fi nd thi s
everything we are doing. I n ord er for us to the battlefield . It took a suite of technol­ gunpowder, quickly master it a n d u s e i t for
break this deadlock we need s omething ogies, and more than a d ecade of tactical a speedy victory. Because sooner or later
new, like the gunpowder which the Chi­ i nnovation, to produce the German blitz­ we are going to fi nd that we simply don't
nese invented and wh ich we are still using krieg in May 1940. The implication is that have enough people to fight." ■
to kill each other," he says . U kra i ne is stuck in a long war-one in
This time, however, the decisive factor which he acknowledges Russia has the ad­
will be not a single new i nven tion , but will vantage. Nevertheless, he insists that Uk­ The wa r i n the a i r
come from combi ning all the technical sol­ raine has no choice but to keep the i n itia­
utions that al ready exist, he says . I n a By tive by remain i ng on the offens ive, even if Don't look up
Invitation article written for The Economist it only moves by a few metres a day.
b y General Zal uzhny (available a t Cri mea, the general bel ieves, remains
www. economist.com/ZaluzhnyBI) , as well Mr Pu ti n's greatest vulnerability. H is legiti­
as in an essay shared with the newspaper, macy rests on having brought it back to
he urges innovation in drones, electronic Russia in 2014. Over the past few months ,
Drone pilots have become valuable
warfare, anti-arti ll ery capabilities and de­ U kra i n e has taken the war i nto the pen i n­
targets for both sides
mining equi pment, as well as in the use of sula, which remai n s critical to the logistics
robotics.
Western all ies have been overly cau ­
tious in supplyi ng U kraine with their latest
of the conflict. "It must know that it is part
of Ukra ine and that this war is happen ing
there." On October 30th Ukraine struck Cri­
T H E D RO N E might not spot you , but if it
does, the re is only one thi ng to do: hide
well, and hide quickly. "Major", a 25-year­
tech nology and m o re powerful weapon s . mea with American-suppl ied long-range old drone pilot operating near the hottest
Joe B i d en, America's pres ident, s e t obj ec­ ATAC MS m issiles fo r the first time. fron t li nes of the south, in Zaporizhia prov­
tives at the start of Ru ssia's invas ion : to en­ General Zaluzhny i s desperately tryi ng ince, says your chances are not good if an
sure that U kraine was n ot defeated and to prevent the wa r fro m settl i ng i nto the enemy p ilot has you in his sights. The
that America was not dragged into con­ trenches . "The biggest risk of an attritional drone can come from behi nd you r own po­
frontation with Russia. This m eans that tre nch war is that it can d rag o n for yea rs s ition s , and m asquerade as your ow n . The
arms supplied by the West have been suffi­ and wear down the Ukra i n ian state," he cameras are not great. But ru nning at
cient i n sustai n ing Ukraine in the war, bu t says . In the fi rst world war, pol itics inter­ speeds of 150-160 kph , it will always out­
not enough to allow it to win. General Za­ fered before techn ology could make a d if­ pace you. "I f your cover is poor, then you
luzhny is not complai n i ng: "They are not ference. Four emp ires collapsed and a rev­ are l ikely a dead man," he says. Major has
obliged to give us anything, and we are olution broke out in Russia. survived a pu rsu it four ti mes, the last ti me
grateful for what we have got, but I am sim­ Mr Putin is cou nti ng on a collapse in in mid-October. Two of his closest com­

-
ply stating the facts ." Ukrainian morale and Western su pport. rades have been less fortu nate. "God, not
Yet by holding back the su pply of long­ There is no question i n General Zaluzhny's phys ics, decides if you survive," he says.
range miss i le systems and tanks, the West mind that a long war favou rs Russia, which The hunters are rapidly becoming the
allowed Russia to regroup and build u p its hu nted. The controllers for most drones
defences i n the aftermath of a sudden leave their own electronic trace, and if a pi­
breakthrough in Kharkiv region in the lot isn't careful, the enemy can home in on
north and i n Kherson in the south late in U KRAI N E them . "Hummer," a commander in the
2022. "These systems were most relevant 47th brigade, i n the south , says the Rus­
to us last year, but they only arrived this Dnieper sians fi re everythi ng they have once they
year," he says. Similarly, F-16 j ets, due next D n i p ro • identify a target. They can use their own
year, are now less helpful , suggests the strike drones , but they also apply high-pre­
general, in part because Rus s ia has im­ cision artillery, mines, glide bombs and
proved its air defences : an experimental even, on occasion, saboteur groups . Major
version of the s-400 missile system can says he has lost 15% of his colleagues over
reach beyond the city of Dnipro, he warns. the last few months. Hummer says his fig­
The delay in arms deliveries, though ures a re lower, but refuses to elaborate.
frustrating, is not the mai n cause of U krai ne is the pioneer of the first-per­
U krai ne's predicament, according to Gen­ Cri mea · ·. . _ · son-view (F PV) drones: craft that are flown,
eral Zaluz h ny. "It is important to u nder­
>-,, RUSSIA video-game-l ike, by goggle-wearing p ilots
Black
stand that this war cannot be won with the Sea Ukrainian ·.erritory 1 00 km with real-time manoeuvrability. The
weapons of the past generation and out­ an nexed by Russia in 2014 drones can cost j ust a few hundred dollars
dated methods," he insists . "They will i n­ November 1 st 2023 to build, but can deliver explosives capable
evitably lead to delay and , as a conse­ Russi an- Russian ■ Clai med as of destroying or i ncapacitating equipment
cont rolled operations* Russia n-controlled
quence, defeat." It is, i nstead , tech nology with a val ue of millions. I n a day, a si ngle
that will be decisive, he argues. The general
■ Ukrain i a n advancest • Russia n fortifi cations built*
operator can take out a dozen high-value
*Russia operated in or attacked, but doesn't co ntrol
is enthu sed by recent conversations with tsince May 1 st 2023 *or expa nded Feb 24th 2022-Oct 1 st 2023 assets, with corresponding human losses .
Eric Schmidt, the former chief executive of Sou rces: Institute for the Study of War; AE l's Critica l Threats That has made the drone pilot an even
Google, and stresses the decisive role of Project; Brady Africk
more prized kill tha n a s niper, one front- ►►

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 The Economist N ove m ber 4t h 2023 Eu rope 45

► line commander suggests. "A lot of people the alliance is tearing itself apart.
want to become drone pilots because they Mr Melenchon's failure to describe the
think the work is further back and safer. murderous Hamas attacks on Israel on Oc­
The reality is that it's extremely dangerous tober 7th as acts of terrorism prompted the
to be flying battlefield drones." first fracture. He denounced the violence
The first F PV drones appeared in east­ and called for a ceasefire, with no reference
ern Ukraine in the spring. They were a re­ to terrorism or Hamas. As the ambiguity
sponse to limited supplies of Western am­ persisted, Olivier Faure, the Socialist par­
munition and the challenge of a much bet­ ty's leader, ordered a "moratorium" on
ter-equipped adversary. Drones have since working with N U P E S .
played a leading role in degrading Russian Since then, things have only worsened.
firepower as part of Ukraine's southern On October 31st Mr Faure declared that
counter-offensive in the Zaporizhia re­ there was no reason to return to the alli­
gion. Although Ukraine initially enjoyed ance, although he stopped short of quit­
total dominance in this new class of ting. He favoured a union of the left, he
drones, the Russians are catching up. The said, "but not at any price". The "constant
first Russian FPV drones appeared by July, conflictualisation" of all subjects, Mr Faure
and are now harassing Ukrainian units argued, was "demonising" the left-pre­
along the front. Ukraine is also hampered cisely at a time when, on the far right, Ma­
by the fact that its drones are still largely rine Le Pen was busy "de-demonising" her
assembled and paid for by volunteers. own party. The left, in effect, was helping
Command structures are similarly anar­ to make her look respectable.
chic, with freelance drone operators, bri­ The logic that turned the alliance into
gade drones, secret services and others op­ Death from a bove the biggest opposition grouping to Em­
erating in the same areas. Meanwhile Rus­ manuel Macron's minority centrist gov­
sia has clear superiority when it comes to tyne, the centrepoint of the Ukrainian ernment always had more to do with im­
more expensive classes of drones, such as counter-offensive effort, says he operates provised electoral tactics than conviction
high-powered reconnaissance machines. without any electronic protection. "Intu­ or style. The constituent parties-Mr Me­
But the small FPV battlefield drones ition is the only thing that counts in this lenchon's Unsubmissive France, the Com­
have challenged many accepted rules of wild fight," he insists. It is a fight that munists, Greens and Socialists-disagree
war. "The future is already with us," says shows no sign of letting up-even as about NATO, Europe, nuclear power and
"Genius", a deputy battalion commander Ukraine's progress south has slowed to a more. N U P ES delights in theatrical antics,
in the 47th brigade. In mid-October a Uk­ snail's pace. "Left Handed", an infantryman designed to go viral on social media. One of
rainian pilot set a 22km record for the dis­ also fighting at the front, says Ukrainian Mr Melenchon's deputies brandished a vial
tance at which he incapacitated a Russian losses have increased to alarming levels, in of bedbugs in parliament. Another posed
tank, 18km behind the front line. His com­ part due to the drones. The plains of Zapo­ outside a government ministry with his
mander says the Russians have imposed a rizhia have turned their back on life, he foot atop an effigy of the minister's head.
10km no-tank zone behind the front, dra­ says. "It's hellish. Corpses, the smell of Moderate Socialists have watched in
matically decreasing the value of such corpses, death, blood and fear. Not a whiff dismay as the left's credibility has been
weapons. Hummer says that his own forc­ of life, just the stench of death." Those in shredded. Divisions over the crisis in the
es have a 58% success rate in hitting tar­ units such as his own have more chance of Middle East have brought those strains to
gets. But the traffic is not one-way, and the dying than surviving. "Seventy-thirty. breaking point. In a recent poll 63% of So­
Ukrainians have suffered many losses too. Some don't even see their first battle." ■ cialist voters judged Hamas's attacks to be
Russian F PV drones have destroyed several terrorist acts; among supporters of Unsub­
Bradley Fighting Vehicles (each worth missive France, the figure was a mere 38%.
some $2m) and even a Leopard tank. The French left The troubling reality for the Socialists,
The Russians are learning "from their however, is that they lack the weight to go
mistakes...and from ours," says Hummer. Irreconcilable it alone. Their candidate at each of the two
Earlier in the summer, some units began to most recent presidential elections secured
equip higher-value assets like tanks and differences a dismal single-digit score in first-round
artillery with jamming boxes, which create voting. Some Socialists who had misgiv­
high-energy fields around an object so that ings about the N U P E S adventure hope that
PARIS
signals around it stop working. Attacking the fracture might be a clarifying moment.
Divisions over Israel and Hamas are
such equipment, without video feedback, It could be, says one ex-minister, a "chance
pulling the left-wing alliance apart
is a difficult if not impossible task. Ukrai­ for a realignment" of left-wing politics,
nian units by and large don't yet have the
same technology. " F PV drones have com­
pletely changed the tactics of armoured in­
A France's Socialist Party
D ECA D E AGO
controlled the presidency, both houses
of parliament, and a majority of regions
which also draws disappointed left-wing­
ers from Mr Macron's centrist alliance. Ber­
nard Cazeneuve, a Socialist ex-prime min­
fantry battle and we have to adapt better," and big cities. Today the once-mighty party ister who quit the party when it joined N U ­
says Yuriy Momot, the deputy general di­ has been reduced to an inaudible minority P E S , has called on the party to break defin­
rector of a company developing technolo­ partner in a left-wing parliamentary alli­ itively with the alliance.
gy-jamming countermeasures for Ukraine. ance controlled by Jean-Luc Melenchon, a Even if it does, the damage will be hard
"Before, only brigades thought about elec­ former Trotskyist firebrand. When this to repair. "Moderates in the party have
tronic warfare. Now company-level units four-party grouping, known as N U P E S , was been trapped", says a Socialist figure. A new
need equipment that can detect and de­ first launched last year ahead of legislative poll on first-round voting for the presiden­
fend themselves against F PV drones." elections, Socialist moderates accepted its tial election in 2027 gives the Socialist can­
Major, who pilots from positions start­ logic through gritted teeth. Now, as differ­ didate just 4-6%. The candidate who
ing just a few hundred yards from Robo- ences over the Israel-Gaza conflict surface, comes top, with 31-33% : Ms Le Pen. ■

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46 Eu rope The Economist N ove m ber 4t h 2023

Pol and from Leonardo, an Italian firm); 48 of the

Fear is the spur

latest Patriot air-defence launch stations
with hundreds of interceptor missiles, and
an air-and-missile-defence battle com­
mand system that ties it all together, at a
cost of up to $15bn.
However, it is the size and scope of the
string of deals with South Korea, worth to­
gether at least $14.5bn, that have startled
The new rulers in Warsaw will seek to build Europe's most powerful armed forces
observers. They include 1,000 1<2 Black

PEurope
O LA N D'S I NCOM I N G coalition govern­
ment will want to be seen by the rest of
as marking a fresh start. But in one
bership, some might question why Poland
feels the need to be such an outlier in mil­
itary spending. The answer is that history
Panther tanks, 180 of them to be delivered
rapidly from the Korean army's own inven­
tory and 820 to be made under licence in
respect it is unlikely to diverge far from the and geography make Poland hedge against Poland from 2026. The rest of the package
policies of its populist predecessor, Pis (the the possibility of Ukraine being forced into includes 672 Thunder howitzers, two­
Law and Justice party). In the immediate an unsatisfactory ceasefire and Russia thirds of them locally produced, and 288
aftermath of Russia's invasion of its neigh­ quickly regenerating its combat power. Be­ Chunmoo multiple-rocket launchers to be
bour Ukraine in February last year, the then sides, Poles fear the prospect of an isola­ mounted on Polish infantry-fighting vehi­
government embarked on a mission that tionist Trump administration that might cles. Poland intends to field more tanks
the defence minister, Mariusz Blaszczak, weaken NATO and balk at coming to Po­ than are operated by the armies of Germa­
described as providing Poland with 'the land's rescue, should the worst happen. ny, France, Britain and Italy put together.
most powerful land forces in Europe" by Poland's first priority last year was to fill
acquiring massive firepower and more the gaps left by transferring 240 mainly So­ K-Pop's ARMY marches on
than doubling the size of its armed forces. viet-era tanks, infantry-fighting vehicles, To replace the MiG-29s and su-22s sent to
There is a strong Polish consensus on fighter jets and artillery (including 54 new Ukraine, Poland is also buying from South
the need for such a plan. According to Polish Krab howitzers) to Ukraine. America Korea 48 Golden Eagle FA-50 fighter jets, in
opinion research by NATO , 80% of Poles fa­ agreed to deliver n6 Ml Abrams tanks from preference to adding to its fleet of more ex­
vour maintaining or increasing defence Pentagon stocks to add to the 250 ordered pensive American F-16s, for which it would
spending. In March 2022 parliament voted in 2021. But the list soon expanded: most of have to wait years. Speed of delivery, qual­
almost unanimously for the Homeland De­ the contracts went not just to America but, ity, price and standardisation with NATO
fence Act that raised the annual military more surprisingly, South Korea. This was equipment were all reasons for doing busi­
budget to 3% of G D P (well above NATO's call partly to snub Europeans critical of the Pis ness with the Koreans. A further strategic
for 2 % ) and set up an extra "off budget" government's creeping authoritarianism. goal has been to tum this buying spree into
fund for military modernisation worth Though not all the contracts have been an engine for building Poland's own arms
about $9.5bn this year and next. finalised, the total planned spending may industry as an exporter to the rest of
Few demurred when the prime minis­ be between $3obn-4obn but could rise to Europe-again, with Korean help.
ter, Mateusz Morawiecki, declared in Janu­ $135bn over the next decade. Aside from an What could possibly go wrong? While
ary that the course of the war in Ukraine agreement in 2020 to buy 32 F-35 fighter generally endorsing the defence build-up,
meant that "we must arm ourselves even jets for $4.6bn, other big-ticket items or­ the new government will want to review
faster" and pushed the target up to 4% of dered from America include 486 H I MA RS some contracts that may have been unduly
G D P amid hints that it might even have to rocket-launchers for about $10bn, to add to rushed through. The affordability of the
rise to 5% over the next decade. the 20 it has already; 96 Apache attack-he­ weapons binge also depends on optimistic
Given that Poland's security, unlike licopters for up to $15bn (in addition to an assumptions about economic growth. Ben
Ukraine's, is undergirded by its NATO mem- order worth $1.7bn for 32 AW149 helicopters Barry, a land-warfare expert at the Interna­
tional Institute for Strategic Studies in
London, queries whether Poland can han­
dle the scale of infrastructure investments
and institutional change needed to meet
the "massive challenge" of training a much
larger army to use the new kit.
Poland's demography-its population
is falling fast-could make it hard to meet
the goal of a 300,000-strong armed forces,
of whom 250,000 are to be regulars and
50,000 part-timers. A former head of the
national defence ministry, Tomasz Siemo­
niak, recently poured cold water on the
plan: a professional army of 150,000, he
reckoned, was the manageable limit.
If as expected the new government
seeks to repair relations with the E U, it will
face pressure to comply with E U budget­
deficit rules, which will bring greater scru­
tiny of Poland's vaulting military ambi­
tion. Nonetheless, Poland seems bent on
becoming NATO's beefiest military land
power in the years ahead. Fear of Russia is a
Don't mess with the Poles great motivator. ■

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 Brita in The Economist November 4th 2023 47

Penal populism locked in their cells," says Andrew Neilson,

director of campaigns at the Howard
In urgent need of correction Leagu e for Penal Reform, "and how self­
harm, drug use and violence are all rising
as the situation gets worse and worse." In
the year to September 2023 the number of
suicides in prison rose by 24 %. All this
means prisons are failing in one of their
chief purposes: to rehabilitate. Prisoners
Overcrowded and understaffed, prisons i n England and Wales are a blight
cannot "do the stuff they need to do to

J
U D I T H F E L I N E loved being a prison go­ lowing year to rehire many of those it had show they are worthy of an early release,"
vernor. The former boss of H M P Maid­ paid off. In his most recent annual report says Ms Feline. "It's disheartening".
stone in Kent relished the challenge of Charlie Taylor, the chief inspector of pri­ This perfect storm of failures has been
helping prisoners "become better people". sons, said every inspected institution suf­ gathering since the mid-199os, when a
Small, everyday interactions were a crucial fered from staff shortages. more punitive sentencing policy was in­
part of that, she reckoned. But twin chal­ For prisoners, this has been calamitous. troduced. Since then most types of crime
lenges-a rising prison population and a It may seem a simple thing, says Ms Feline, have seen "sentence inflation", says Mr
shortage of staff-meant this was becom­ to put another bunk in a cell that already Neilson. The average sentence for murder
ing increasingly unachievable. "I didn't sleeps one, or even t\vo. (Most of Britain's was 20 years in 2020, up from 12. 5 years in
want to stop loving my job," she says. So prisons were built in the 19th century when 2003. No government has tried to reverse
last year she took early retirement. cells were intended for one.) But in this trend, which is why the prison popula­
Ms Feline's experiences mirror those of j ammed, understaffed j ails, people are tion of England and Wales is now nearly
innumerable prison workers. In October locked up for far longer: 22 hours of con­ double what it was three decades ago.
data from the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) re­ finement is not uncommon. But the situation has now become so
vealed the prison population of England "It's awful to hear people describe bad that the government cannot ignore it.
and Wales had hit an all-time high-only a spending endless hours doing nothing In October Alex Chalk, the j ustice secre­
few hundred short of official capacity. tary, announced a series of emergency
Most British prisons have long been over­ measures to tackle overcrowding. Some
crowded. A dramatic escape from Wands­ ➔ Also in this section are better than others.
worth prison in London this summer One, limiting short prison sentences (of
48 The covid-19 inquiry
showed it was holding more than 1, 600 less than 12 months) for low-level offend­
men, though it was built for 1, 000. 49 Bagehot: Labour in power ers, should have been introduced long ago.
The situation has been dreadfully exac­ Research shows that for such petty crimi­
➔ Read more at: Economist.corn/Britain
erbated by a shortage of prison guards. In nals, many of whom are drug addicts, short
2013 the M OJ introduced a voluntary redun­ The promise of virtual hospital wards prison sentences result in higher levels of
dancy scheme for prison officers, the ef­ reoffending than community sentences.
The genius of J i lly Cooper
fects of which were so dire it tried the fol- Community options are cheaper, too. And ►►

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 -
48 Brita i n The Econo mist N ove m ber 4t h 2023

► because chaotic, low-level criminals (who questioned u ntil at least 2026. Lawyers will
are the main conduit for drugs into j ails) C el I, the facts pore over a vast trove of documents and try
make prisons more difficult to run, reduc­ Prisoners per 1 0 0,000 popul ation somehow to p in down a narrative.
i ng their nu mber may also make it easier to Septem ber 2023 or latest In retrospect, Britain's handli ng of the
recruit prison staff. 0 50 1 00 1 50 200 pandemic does not appear as bad as it once
Another i nitiative, releasing some pris­ did. On a crude measure of excess deaths ,
oners who are serving sentences of less Pola nd the cou ntry ranks close to the middle o f the
than four years 18 days early, is also sensi­ England pack, hel ped greatly by an i mpressively
ble "and not alarming for the public," ob­ & Wales fast vaccine roll-out. But the i nquiry will
serves Pia Sinha, chief executive of the Pri­ Spain look at why Britain d id so badly before the
son Reform Trust and a former prison go­ j abs arrived, probing government deci­
vernor. She notes, however, that it is un­ France sions over lockdowns, care homes and
clear how much difference it would make Italy
public-health guidance. This autumn's
given that it seems likely to be limited to hearings, focused on 10 Downing Street
certain prisons and prisoner-types. and the Cabinet Office, wi ll be among the
These measures, like most that would Sou rces: Wo rld Prison Brief; Eurostat *2021
juiciest sessions. Hoveri ng over them is
reduce overcrowding, have a maj or flaw: one question: was the British state bad ly
they wou ld put more pressure on the pro­ prepared or were individ uals in power
bation service, which manages communi­ may help. But making prisons less crowd­ spectacularly unsuited to the j ob?
ty sentences and oversees some prisoners ed and dysfunctio nal would mean fewer It is already known, for example, that
after they have been released. The p roba­ staff left for less stressful j obs . the country's national risk assess ment
tion service is itself in shockingly bad Perhaps most importantly, the MOJ failed to antici pate and plan for a novel
shape, and badly needs reforms of its own. must push for a red uction in the length of pathogen, and that the state was slow to
Another initiative announced by Mr sentences . There is little point givi ng crim­ adapt the plans it d id have fo r a fl u pan­
Chalk, of sending prisoners overseas , has inals more time if they spend it in their demic. The Cabinet Office lacked basic data
been tried elsewhere; both Belgium and cells, becom ing more violent, hopeless to track what was happening. In 2021 Mr
Norway have in the past rented cells in the and , in many cases, mentally unwel l. Th is , Cummings told a parliamentary commit­
Netherlan ds. Mr Neilson says that ensu r­ however, would be a major und ertaki ng, tee that departmental responsibi lities for
i ng domestic laws-on family vi sits, say, o r not least because politi cs plays such an u n­ the crisis were horribly muddled. This
prisoners' rights to speak t o a lawyer-are helpful part in cri minal-justice poli cy. The week he reiterated that the core part of the
followed on foreign soil can be fraught. No Labour Party, assum ing it forms Britain 's state supposed to prepare for emergencies
more than a few hundred prisoners are next government, wi ll not want to be seen was glacially slow to respond.
likely to be dealt with th is way, he reckons . si ngle-handedly to undo the tough-on­ Yet the big-name witnesses now ap­
The gove rnment is also considering crime pol icies of the To ries . A c ross-party pearing on the stand heigh ten the sense
two fu rther measures. The prison popula­ parliamentary inquiry or even a royal com­ that the chaos was driven by individuals.
tion has increased sharply si nce the pan­ mission might be one way to defu se this The portrait of Mr Johnson as a prime min ­
demic because court backlogs have in­ problem. "A c risis of this scale calls for sys­ ister who was u nserious , indecisive and
creased the nu mbe rs on remand (ie, s us­ tematic change," says Ms Si nha. "It's ti me unable to grasp detail is hardly new. Mem­
pected criminals who are locked up before to get experts round a table, look at what orable colour is being added, though . I n
they get to court) . Their number has risen works, take politics out of it." ■ o n e message Mr Johnson ponders whether
from 9 , 000 in 2019 to over 15 , 000 in 2023. older people should accept thei r fate
The M OJ is considering givi ng them longer (while demonstrating a sketchy grasp of
to plead guilty before they get to trial ; since The covid-19 i n q u i ry the concepts of "med ian age" and "life ex­
guilty pleas result i n reduced sentences ,
I swear, your
pectancy") . As a former media advise r put
that would hel p. It should also stop imp ris­ it on the witness stand th is week, covid did

honour. A lot
oning so many offenders who infringe the " not suit his skill set". (Mr Johnson himself
terms of their licence on release. Most of is expected to appear next month .)
those infractions, such as going abroad As for Mr Cummings, he styles hi mself
without permission, are not crimes in the as a truth-telling maverick i nterested in
normal sense of the word . systems. Yet he appears to have been inca­
The chaos in government during the
Yet none of these will be enough to ease pable of run n i ng a functioning office. At
pandemic is laid bare
the crisis in prisons. Partly because it is re­ one point he moans that meetings in Num­
cruiting more police officers, the MOJ ex­
pects the p rison popu lation to reach
98,700 by 202 6, up from arou nd 88 , ooo
I T WAS EASY to get distracted by the foul
language. Did Dominic Cummi ngs regret
calling ministers "useless fuckpigs", "mo­
ber 10 d id not function o n a basic level ,
whe n h e had been the p rime minister's
chief of staff for seven months . On Novem­
now. Its prison-building programme is not rons" and "cu nts" i n WhatsApp messages , ber 1st Helen MacNamara, the then deputy
keepi ng pace, so what is to be done? or describing the Cabinet Office as "terrify­ cabinet secretary, described an envi ron­
For one thing, the MoJ must recruit i ngly shit"? G iving evidence to the covid-19 ment that was toxic, macho and sexist.
more prison officers and find ways to re­ inquiry on October 31st, the one-time chief All of which raises difficult questions
tai n them . "It's n ot j u st about nu mbers," aide to Boris Johnson was characteristical­ for Simon Case, the cabinet secretary, who
says M s Fel ine, the former governor. ly caustic. If anythi ng he had "understat­ is yet to give evidence. It also bodes ill for
"There's nothing l ike working on the land­ ed" the scale of the dysfu nction within the Rishi Sunak, who will also appear before
i ng. You can be trained , but the real train­ government as it grappled with covid . the i nquiry next month. It is not just that
i ng is experience." She says her old p rison Many countries have completed short, the p rime minister will face tough qu es­
i n Kent has lost a lot o f workers to the bor­ sharp exercises to draw lessons fro m the tions about his time as chancellor. It is that
der force. The i nspector of prisons says pandemic. B ritain's sprawling i nquest will Mr Sunak has spent the past year trying to
elsewhere i n south-east E ngland prison try to dissect the functioning of almost banish memories of his chaotic p redeces­
staff are leavi ng for the police. Better pay every part of the state. Witnesses wil l be sors. I nstead, the circus is back. ■

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 The Economist N ove m ber 4th 2023 Britain 49

Bagehot I Scratching the veneer

A succession of Labour screw- ups reveals how the pa rty will govern
Party unity is a fragile thing. Sir Keir has tight control of the
party, but it has been achieved with sticks rather than carrots. Dis­
sent has not been tolerated; fringe elements within Labour have
been cowed. People within the party have put up with this due to
the prospect of power. Painful decisions have passed with little
protest as a result. This summer, Labour confirmed that it will not
remove a two-child limit on child benefit. Doing so would lift
250,000 children, which is the population of Stoke-on-Trent, out
of poverty at a cost of about flbn ($1. 2bn; 0.05% of G D P), but fiscal
credibility came first. Gaza has shown the limits to discipline.
Control was one part of the Labour leadership's pitch. The other
was competence. Ms Reeves's literary endeavours have damaged
that bit of the pitch. The shadow chancellor mentions her brief
stint as a Bank of England economist in her 20s with the swagger
of a former West Ham youth player turning up to play five-a-side
football on a Monday night. Being caught lifting an explanation of
rent-seeking from Wikipedia straight into a book is not career­
ending. But it is mortifying.
Labour's reputation for economic competence is relative: it re­
lies on Tory ineptitude. Labour has failed to explain how it would
differ in government from a Conservative one on fiscal matters.
Ms Reeves has ruled out any tax rises beyond tinkering with things
F feet. The Labour leader
OR A BARRISTER, Sir Keir Starmer is surprisingly slow on his
had an illustrious career at the Bar but
like VAT on private school fees, while also keeping roughly to Tory
spending plans. But Conservative polling is only four points above
can struggle under light interrogation. When Israel launched its where it was at the nadir of the Liz Truss era, when her chancellor
assault on Gaza in response to Hamas's attack on October 7th, Sir was appearing on television with a graphic of sterling plunging
Keir was asked a seemingly simple question during a radio inter­ next to his head. Voters would choose anyone else; Labour are any­
view: "A siege is appropriate? Cutting off power, cutting off water, one else.
SirKeir?" SirKeir replied: "I think Israel does have that right." Sheer luck is the most overlooked part of Labour's rise. Sir
The trap was sprung. Clips of the former human-rights lawyer Keir's tenure as leader could easily have ended in 2021 after a lm ­
appearing to endorse what many regard as war crimes went viral miliating by-election defeat in north-east England and a narrow
in Labourland, where Israel and Palestine is a poisonous issue. victory in another. The Conservatives rode to his rescue in 2022,
Panicky aides clarified that SirKeir had said that Israel had to stay switching prime ministers twice in two months and triggering a
within international law, but the damage was done. Dozens of financial crisis. Even the row about Gaza could be worse. Few
councillors resigned; M Ps were inundated with emails from pro­ voters are paying attention to it. Helpful distractions have
Palestinian members and voters. Threats of shadow-minister res­ emerged, such as an inquiry into Boris Johnson's inept handling
ignations unless SirKeir endorsed a ceasefire followed; the Labour of the pandemic (complete with foul-mouthed WhatsApp tran­
leader refused, largely to stop Britain becoming an outlier among scripts) . Luck, however, cannot be relied on. It was bad luck that a
its allies. He was stuck, kippered by a breakfast-show radio DJ . reviewer spotted borrowing in Ms Reeves's tome. I t was bad prac­
Sir Keir has triggered a month-long internal row. Slapdash be­ tice that put it there.
haviour from Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, caused a
more amusing episode. Ms Reeves had found time in her schedule Step by step
to bash out a book titled "The Women Who Made Economics". A re­ Labour have reached the edge of power by making few mistakes.
viewer at the Fina n cial Times noticed that phrases had been lifted This is fortunate, since error correction happens slowly. A quicker
from Wikipedia, the G u a rdian and even one of Ms Reeves's own leader would not have made his error on Gaza in the first place; a
colleagues. In one case, four paragraphs from Wikipedia on the more flexible one would have corrected it faster. The response to
concept of rent-seeking were copied in almost word-for-word. Ms Reeves's borrowed paragraphs was a delicious cocktail of deni­
Both of these errors tell a story. One is serious, one is silly. Nei­ al and confession, noted one wag. Labour's slow-and-steady ap­
ther will determine whether Labour ends up in power. But each proach can be an asset in opposition but will be a liability in office.
demonstrates how Labour will govern when it does. Now that a Labour government is seen as an inevitability,
A bitter row over Gaza is a reminder that with Labour in power, Westminster j ournalists have begun inflating the feats and skills
its neuroses will replace Conservatives ones. Britain has spent a of SirKeir and Ms Reeves to fit their poll lead. Boot-licking season
decade wrestling with its position in Europe not because voters has begun. Yet what is now considered masterful inactivity can as
demanded it, but because Conservative MPs were obsessed by it. easily be labelled timidity. Under Sir Keir, Labour has let others
With Labour in office, topics such as Israel and Palestine will be­ make major policies on his behalf. When it comes to foreign poli­
come matters of internal political psychodrama rather than cold cy, Labour has been happy to follow allies. When it comes to fiscal
debate about policy. Backbench Tory bores waving copies of the policy, the party has moved in lockstep with the Conservatives,
Treaty of Rome will be replaced by Labour counterparts quoting creating a new economic consensus. In government, however, La­
the Balfour Declaration. I t was, after all, a row over Israel that led bour will occasionally have to stride out alone. SirKeir will have to
Tony Blair to realise his time was almost up in 2006. learn to be quick on his feet. ■

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so
I nternationa I The Economist November 4th 2023

Ha mas a n d I srae l gone colonial struggles. Jewish groups and

others have wond ered why the casualties
The culture war over the Gaza war i n , say, Syria o r Afghan istan-where the
perpetrators as well as the victi ms are Mus­
l im-stir less bien -pensa n t concern.
After a period in which the issue reced ­
ed in prom inence in Western d iplomacy
and headl ines , Gaza's plight is now inspi r­
ing protests and disputes as never befo re. A
The conflict is raging on streets and screens in the West
glut of open letters by artists and other lu­

T H E I MAG E RY is entic i ng, the rhythm

and rhyme are propulsive. " From the
river to the sea," runs the popular slogan,
Greenblatt of the Anti-Defamation League,
an American anti- hate group which, l i ke
watchdogs i n B ritain and elsewhere, has
minaries have decried I s rael's bombard­
ment and Western leaders' acqu iescence to
it. (Counter-petitions mourn the atrocities
" Palestine will be free! " In recent days that documented a steep rise in antisemitic i n­ of October 7th and affirm Israel's right to
couplet has resounded i n squares from To­ cidents s ince Hamas's bloody rai d on Israel self-defence.) Pro-Palestinian rallies have
ronto to Berlin. Wearing chequered keffiyeh on October 7th. (I slamophobi c i ncidents been held i n many citi es, includ i ng some
scarves, Californian pu pils declaimed it as have mu ltiplied i n several cou ntries , too.) where they were notionally banned.
they swept down school corridors . Activ­ The ubi qu ity of th is deceptively hard l ine The recrimi nations flow both ways . I n
ists proj ected the words onto a wall of a mantra poi nts up an i mportant shift in Brita i n the B BC's reluctance to refer to Ha­
universi ty i n Washington, DC. Western attitudes to the Israel i-Palestin ian mas as "terrorists" led to an outcry and a
What do they mean? Superficially an conflict. Three related forces are d riving i t: partial climbdown. Dave Chappelle, a n
i deal i stic vow of l iberation, the decades­ technology, demography and ideology. American comed ian, reportedly h a d a spat
old expression also conta i ns a threat: the The Western left once sympathised with punters at a gig i n Boston after he la­
river is the River Jordan, the sea is the Med­ with Zionism. That changed marked ly mented the crisi s i n Gaza. Some American
iterranean and freedom, in this case, im­ after the s ix-day war of 1967 and the Israeli students have been hounded for their stri­
plies the destruction of the state of Israel . occupation of the West Bank and Gaza. Es­ dently an ti- Israel views ; tal ks by Palestin­
That i s certainly the sense i n which Hamas pecially s ince the end of apartheid in South ian authors have been cancelled. Palestine
uses the phrase. The children chanting it at Africa, the Pal estin ian cause has bee n a tal­ Legal, which supports pro-Palesti n i an ac­
the base of N elson's column i n London i s ma n ic issue for left-lean i ng Wes terners . tivists in America, says they are " facing a
on October 21st, during a big p ro-Palestin­ Why it acquired this status i s a matter of wave of McCarthyite backlash targeting
i an march, may not have grasped the men­ debate. I n some analyses, Israel serves as their l ivelihoods and careers".
ace. But several marchers who were yelling an avatar for American power, or for by- "Silence is violence", runs another pop­
the words, or beari ng them on p lacards, ular p rotest slogan, a position taken by
seemed aware of it, clamming up defen­ some on all sides . A range of i nstitutions,
s ively when asked to exp la i n them . ➔ Also in this section from u ni versities to u n i o ns, have been be­
''Anyone who's paying attenti o n knows rated for the word ing of their p ublic state­
52 Skewed views on social media
exactly what that means," says Jonathan ments , or for fai l i ng to issue one. Calls for ►►

Social Media Pakistan 0342-4938217

Other documents randomly have
different content
nawaub was several times defeated, until he became so exasperated
at the loss of the city of Monghyr, that he ordered the murder in cold
blood of 200 prisoners. On November 6, in the same year, Patna was
taken by the British; and in May, 1764, Meer Cossim’s troops were
totally defeated under the walls. Since that time the place has
remained undisturbed in the hands of the British.
Patomemeter. An instrument for measuring the force of
currents.
Patonce, Cross. In heraldry (Lat. patens, “expanding”), a cross
with its terminations expanding like early vegetation or an opening
blossom.
Patoo-patoo. A formidable weapon with sharp edges, used by
the Polynesian Islanders and New Zealanders as a sort of battle-axe
to cleave the skulls of their enemies.
Patræ (now Patras). One of the twelve cities of Achaia, was
situated west of Rhium, near the opening of the Corinthian Gulf. The
town was chiefly of importance as the place from which the
Peloponnesians directed their attacks against the opposite coast of
Ætolia. Patræ was one of the four towns which took the leading part
in founding the second Achæan League. Patræ assisted the Ætolians
against the Gauls in 279 B.C.
Patriarchal Cross. A cross which, like the patriarchal crosier, has
its upright part crossed by two horizontal bars, the upper shorter
than the lower. A cross patriarchal fimbriated or was a badge of the
Knights Templar.
Patrick, St., Order of. A national order of knighthood for
Ireland, established by George III. on February 5, 1783, and
enlarged in 1833. As originally constituted, it consisted of the
sovereign, the grand master (who was always the lord-lieutenant of
Ireland for the time being), and 15 knights. By the statutes of 1833
the number of knights was increased to 22. The collar of the order
(of gold) is composed of roses alternating with harps, tied together
with a knot of gold, the roses being enameled alternately white
within red, and red within white, and in the centre is an imperial
crown surmounting a harp of gold, from which the badge is
suspended. The badge or jewel is of gold, and oval; surrounding it is
a wreath of shamrock proper on a gold field; within this is a band of
sky-blue enamel charged with the motto of the order, Quis Separabit
MDCCLXXXIII. in gold letters; and within this hand a saltire gules
(the cross of St. Patrick) surmounted by a shamrock or trefoil slipped
vert, having on each of its leaves an imperial crown or. The field of
the cross is either argent or pierced, and left open. A sky-blue
ribbon, worn over the right shoulder, sustains the badge when the
collar is not worn. The star, worn on the left side, differs from the
badge only in being circular in place of oval, and in substituting for
the exterior wreath of shamrocks eight rays of silver, four rays of
which are larger than the other four. The mantle is of rich sky-blue
tabinet, lined with white silk, and fastened by a cordon of blue silk
and gold with tassels. On the right shoulder is the hood, of the same
materials as the mantle. The order is indicated by the initials K.P.
Patriot. A sincere and unbiased friend to his country; an advocate
for general civilization, uniting in his conduct through life, moral
rectitude with political integrity. Such a character is seldom found in
any country; but the specious appearance of it is to be seen
everywhere, most especially in Europe. It is difficult to say how far
the term can be used in a military sense, although it is not
uncommon to read of a citizen soldier, and a patriot soldier.
Individually considered the term may be just, but it is hardly to be
understood collectively.
Patrol. To go the rounds in a camp or garrison; to march about
and observe what passes as a guard. To pass round as a sentinel;
as, to patrol the city.
Patrolling. Performing the duties of a patrol.
Patrols. A patrol is a detachment which is employed to obtain
information respecting the enemy’s movements and position, and
relating to the nature of the country over which the army has to
move, and to keep open the communications between the different
portions of a command. Patrols are generally composed entirely of
cavalry, although they are sometimes composed of infantry and
cavalry; and in very much broken and obstructed ground, it might be
necessary that they contain only infantry.
Patte (Fr.). A term used in mining; when a well or excavation is
made in loose or crumbling earth, and it becomes necessary to
frame it in, the rafters must be laid horizontally to support the
boards in proportion as the workmen gain depth. The ends of the
rafters that are first laid run 10 or 12 inches beyond the border of
the well, for the purpose of sustaining the platform. These supports
are called oreilles; consequently, that every frame may be supported
the second is attached or made firm to the first by means of the
ends of boards which are nailed together. In this manner the third is
joined to the second, and the fourth to the third. These ends are
called pattes, or handles.
Pattée, Cross, or Cross Formeé (Lat. patulus, “spreading”). In
heraldry, a cross with its arms expanding towards the ends, and flat
at their outer edges.
Patte d’Oie (Fr.). A term used in mining to describe three small
branches which are run out at the extremity of a gallery. They are so
called from their resemblance to the foot of a goose.
Pattern Regiment. A phrase of distinction which is applied to a
corps of officers and soldiers who are remarkable for their
observance of good order and discipline.
Paulus Hook. A point on the Jersey shore which ran into the
Hudson River near where the Pavonia ferries now are. The first
settlement was made here in 1633. A British fort erected at this
point was taken on the morning of August 19, 1779, by the
Americans under Maj. Harry Lee, who made a descent on it by way
of the Point of Rocks, and captured 179 prisoners, a number of
guns, and a quantity of stores.
Pavade. Formerly a short dagger was so called in Scotland.
Pavecheur, or Pavesier. An ancient militia who carried the
(pavois) shield.
Pavia (anc. Ticinum). A city of Northern Italy, capital of the
province of the same name, on the left bank of the Ticino, 20 miles
south of Milan, and 3 miles above the confluence of the Ticino and
the Po. Pavia was founded by the Ligurii; it was sacked by Brennus
and by Hannibal; burned by the Huns; conquered by the Romans,
and became a place of considerable importance at the end of the
Roman empire. Then it came into the possession of the Goths and
Lombards, and the kings of the latter made it the capital of the
kingdom of Italy. It became independent in the 12th century, then,
weakened by civil wars, it was conquered by Matthew Visconti in
1345. Since that period, its history is merged in that of the
conquerors of Lombardy. Here, in 1525, the French were defeated
by the Imperialists, and their king taken prisoner; but in 1527, and
again in the following year it was taken and laid waste by the
French. It was stormed and pillaged by Napoleon in 1796, and came
into the possession of Austria by the peace of 1814. Since 1859 it
has been included within the reorganized kingdom of Italy.
Pavilion. A tent raised on posts; a flag, colors, ensign, or banner;
in heraldry, a covering in form of a tent, investing the armories of
kings.
Pavilion, To. To furnish or cover with tents; to shelter with a
tent.
Pavise (written also Pavais, Pavese, and Pavesse). A large shield
covering the whole body, having an inward curve, managed by a
pavisor, who with it screened an archer.
Pavisor. In military antiquity, a soldier who managed a pavise.
Pavon. An ancient military flag shaped like a right-angled triangle.
Pawnees. A warlike tribe of Indians who formerly resided in
Nebraska, but are now located in Indian Territory. Their numbers
have been greatly reduced, owing to their wars with the Sioux, with
whom they maintained a hereditary warfare. They now number
about 2000 souls, and are divided in four bands.
Pay. Is the stipend or salary allowed for each individual serving in
the army.
Pay Bills. In the British service, accounts regularly tendered by
captains of troops or companies of the money required by them for
the effectives of such troop or company.
Pay, Colonial. In the British service is a certain allowance which
is made to troops serving in the colonies.
Pay Department. Is that department of a government which
takes charge of all matters relating to the pay of the army. In the
U. S. army the pay department consists of 1 paymaster-general, with
the rank, pay, and emoluments of a brigadier-general; 2 assistant
paymaster-generals, with the rank, pay, and emoluments of colonels
of cavalry; 2 deputy paymaster-generals, with the rank, pay, and
emoluments of lieutenant-colonels of cavalry; and 50 paymasters,
with the rank, pay, and emoluments of majors of cavalry.
Pay, Half-. Sec Half-pay.
Pay, Full. See Full Pay.
Pay, Staff. Is the pay and allowances which are made to officers
serving on the staff of an army, or in any particular division or
department.
Paymaster-General. In the U. S. army, is the chief officer of the
pay department, with the rank of brigadier-general. Under the
direction of the Secretary of War, the paymaster-general assigns
paymasters to districts; he receives from the treasurer all the
moneys which are intrusted to him for the purpose of paying the
pay, the arrears of pay, etc., appertaining to the army. He is also
charged with all necessary instructions to his subordinates in
reference to the supply and distribution of funds for the payment of
the army, and all other things appertaining to the financial duties of
his department and the accountability of its officers. In these and all
other matters having relation specially to the internal administration
of the pay department, the correspondence and orders is direct
between the paymaster-general and his subordinates, and between
the department and district chiefs and their subordinates.
Paymasters. Are officers appointed in the army for the purpose
of keeping its pay accounts, and the disbursing of moneys in
payment of troops. In the U. S. service it is the duty of paymasters
to pay all the regular and other troops; and to insure punctuality and
responsibility, correct reports shall be made to the paymaster-
general once in two months, showing the disposition of the funds
previously transmitted, with accurate estimates for the next payment
of such regiment, garrison, or department, as may be assigned to
each. In the British service a paymaster is attached to each
regiment.
Paymaster-Sergeant. In the English army, a non-commissioned
officer who assists the paymaster.
Pay-roll. A roll or list of persons entitled to payment, with the
sums which are to be paid on them. In the U. S. army, commanders
of companies are required to prepare at each regular muster, beside
one muster-roll, three copies of the “muster- and pay-roll,” two for
the paymaster, and one to be retained in the company files. When
the paymaster’s rolls have been computed and returned to the
company for examination and signature, the calculations thereon will
be transcribed on the triplicate muster- and pay-roll, under the
direction of or by the company commander, who is responsible for
the correct performance of this duty.
Pay-Sergeant. In the British service, a sergeant who, on the
responsibility of the captain of a troop, battery, or company, keeps
the men’s accounts. He is generally, but not invariably, the color-
sergeant in the infantry, or the troop or battery sergeant-major in
the cavalry or artillery.
Pea Ridge. A range of hills in Benton Co., Ark., which gives its
name to the battle fought here March 6-8, 1862, between the Union
forces under Gen. Curtis and the Confederates under Van Dorn, in
which the latter were defeated with loss of over 2500 killed,
wounded, and captured.
Peabody-Martini Rifle. A breech-loading rifle invented by an
American—Peabody—and improved by a Swiss. It is called Martini-
Henry in England, in which country it is the official arm. More than
half a million of these rifles were manufactured for the Turkish
government during the late Russo-Turkish war by the Providence
Tool Company of Rhode Island. The gun has a great reputation on
account of its long range.
Peace. Freedom from war, exemption from, or cessation of,
hostilities. This condition of affairs is effected and maintained by
treaties between independent powers.
Peace Establishment. The reduced number of effective men in
the army during a period of peace.
Peal. A long sound, or a succession of long sounds, as of cannon,
etc.
Pean (Old Fr. pannes, “furs”). One of the furs borne in heraldry,
differing from ermine only in the tinctures,—the ground being sable
and the spots of gold.
Pea-rifle. A rifle of small bore carrying a ball of the size of a pea.
Peasants’ War. In German history, the name given to that great
insurrection of the peasantry which broke out in the beginning of the
year 1525. The oppression of the peasants had gradually increased
in severity, as the nobility became more extravagant and the clergy
more sensual and degenerate. The example of Switzerland
encouraged the hope of success, and from 1476 to 1517 there were
risings here and there among the peasants of the south of Germany.
A peasant rebellion, called from its cognizance, the Bundschuh
(laced shoe), took place in the Rhine countries in 1502, and another
called the “League of Poor Conrad,” in Würtemberg, in 1514, both of
which were put down without any abatement of the grievances
which occasioned them. The Reformation, by the mental awakening
which it produced, and the diffusion of sentiments favorable to
freedom, must be reckoned among the causes of the great
insurrection itself. The Anabaptists, and in particular Münzer,
encouraged and excited them, and a peasant insurrection took place
in the Hegau in 1522. Another known as the “Latin War” arose in
1523 in Salzburg, against an unpopular archbishop, but these were
quickly suppressed. On January 1, 1525, the peasantry of the
abbacy of Kempten, along with the towns-people, suddenly assailed
and plundered the convent; this event proved the signal for a
general rising of the peasantry on all sides throughout the south of
Germany. They organized themselves into bands of from 9000 to
30,000, and destroyed convents and castles, murdered, pillaged, and
were guilty of the greatest excesses, which must indeed be regarded
as partly in revenge for the cruelties practiced against them. In May
and June, 1525, they sustained a number of severe defeats from the
regular forces under Truchsess von Waldburg, in which large bodies
of them were destroyed. The landgraf Philip of Hesse was also
successful against them in the north of Germany. The peasants after
they had been subjugated were everywhere treated with terrible
cruelty; a great body of them were massacred; multitudes were
hanged in the streets, and many were put to death with the greatest
tortures. It is supposed that more than 150,000 persons lost their
lives in this war. The lot of the defeated insurgents became harder
than ever.
Pebble Powder. See Gunpowder.
Pecq, Le. A village of France, on the right bank of the Seine,
about half a mile east from St. Germain en Laye. The allied forces
crossed the Seine at this spot in 1815.
Pectoral (Fr. pectorale). A breastplate. Among the Romans the
poorer soldiers, who were rated under 1000 drachmas, instead of
the lorica, or brigantine (a leathern coat of mail) wore a pectoral, or
breastplate of thin brass, about twelve fingers square. Some modern
troops, such as the cuirassiers, etc., wear pectorals for the direct
purposes of defense and bodily protection; but in general small
ornamental plates with clasps have been substituted.
Peculation. A term used in a military sense for embezzling public
moneys, stores, arms, or ammunition. See Appendix, Articles of War,
60.
Pedro. An early gun of large caliber for throwing stone balls.
Peel. To strip; to plunder; to pillage; as, to peel a province or
conquered people.
Peel. A small tower or fort.
Peel-house. A small fortified place.
 Peel-towers. The name given to the towers erected on the
Scottish borders for defense. They are square, with turrets at the
angles, and the door is sometimes at a height from the ground. The
lower story is usually vaulted, and forms a stable for horses, cattle,
etc.
Peep o’ Day Boys. Were insurgents in Ireland, who visited the
houses of their antagonists at break of day, in search of arms. They
first appeared July 4, 1784, and for a long period were the terror of
the country.
Pegu. A British province of Eastern India, is bounded on the north
by the Burmese empire, east by the Tenasserim provinces, south by
the Gulf of Martaban, and west by the Bay of Bengal and the
province of Arracan. It was discovered by the Portuguese in 1520.
The early history of Pegu consists of little more than a narrative of
barbarous and cruel contests between that country and the kingdom
of Ava, in which the latter was finally successful, and reduced Pegu
to a province of that kingdom, or, as it is generally called, the
Burman empire. Pegu, the capital, was taken by Maj. Cotton, with
300 men, in June, 1852, without loss; and afterwards abandoned. It
was again occupied by the Burmese and strongly fortified, with a
garrison of 4000 men. It was recaptured by Gen. Godwin with 1200
men and 2 guns, in two hours, with the loss of 6 killed and 32
wounded. The province was annexed to the British possessions, by
proclamation, December 20, 1852, and has since prospered. In
February, 1862, it was united with Arracan and Tenasserim as British
Burmah.
Pei-ho. A river of China, which rising on the confines of Tartary,
traverses the northern part of the province of Chih-le or Pe-chih-le,
and falls into the Gulf of Pe-chih-le, in about 38° 30′ N. lat. The
attack on the escort of the British and French ambassadors whilst
ascending the Pei-ho to Pekin (June, 1859), led to the war with
China of 1860, in which year the Taku forts on this river were taken
by the British.
Peishwa. The title of the military governor of the Mahrattas,
whose office became hereditary in the family of Balajee Biswanath,
its first possessor, who fixed his residence at Poonah.
Peking, or Pekin. The capital of the Chinese empire, situated
between the Pei-ho and Hoen-ho, 100 miles northwest from the
mouth of the Pei-ho River. About 5 miles north from the city the
famous Yuen-ming-yuen palaces are situated, which were sacked
and destroyed by the allies in October, 1860; these were 30 in
number. Here had been heaped up for centuries all the movable
riches and presents of the emperors of China. At the approach of the
allies Hien-fung fled in haste; and when Lord Elgin learned that it
was in those grounds that the British and French prisoners, captured
by treachery, had been tortured, he gave the order to sack and
destroy this favorite residence of the emperor’s, as it could not fail to
be a blow to his pride as well as his feelings; and it became a
solemn act of retribution. Peking has thus been rendered memorable
by this march of the British and French forces (1860) to the walls of
the city, on which the British and French flags were raised. The
provisions of the treaty of Tien-tsin (1858) were subsequently
ratified and supplemented by the convention of Peking, which was
signed in the English and French languages at Peking, October 24,
1860.
Pelican. An ancient name for a 6-pounder culverin, 9 feet long
and weighing 2400 pounds.
Pelican. In heraldry, the pelican is drawn with her wings
endorsed, and wounding her breast with her beak. When
represented in her nest feeding her young with her blood, she is
called a pelican in her piety.
Peligni. A brave and warlike people of Sabine origin, in Central
Italy, bounded southeast by the Marsi, north by the Marrucini, south
by Samium and the Frentani, and east by the Frentani likewise. They
offered a brave resistance to the Romans, but concluded a peace
with the republic along with their neighbors the Marsi, Marrucini, and
Frentani, in 304 B.C. They took an active part in the Social war (90,
89). They were subdued by Pompeius Strabo, after which time they
are rarely mentioned.
 Pelinna, or more commonly Pelinnæum (now Gardhiki). A town
of Thessaly, in Hestiæotis, on the left bank of the Peneus, was taken
by the Romans in their war with Antiochus.
Pellene. A city in Achaia, bordering on Sicyonia, the most easterly
of the twelve Achæan cities, was situated on a hill 60 stadia from
the sea, and was strongly fortified. Its port-town was Aristonautæ.
In the Peloponnesian war Pellene sided with Sparta. In the later
wars of Greece between the Achæan and Ætolian leagues, the town
was several times taken by the contending parties.
Pellet. An old word for shot or bullet.
Pellet, or Ogress. In English heraldry, a roundle sable.
Pell-mell. In utter confusion; with disorderly mixture; with
confused violence; as, the battle was a confused heap, the ground
unequal, men, horses, chariots, crowded pell-mell.
Peloponnesian War. One of the most celebrated and important
of the wars carried on between the different states of Greece; the
particulars of which are related in the writings of Xenophon and
Thucydides. It existed for twenty-seven years, during which time the
Athenians and the inhabitants of the Peloponnesus, the most
southern peninsula of Greece, were the principal belligerents. After
the Athenians had sustained immense losses, it was at best agreed
that to establish the peace the fortifications of the Athenian harbors
should be demolished, and all their ships, except twelve, be
surrendered to the enemy. They were to resign every pretension to
their dominions abroad; to follow the Spartans in war, and in time of
peace to frame their constitutions according to the will and
prescription of their Peloponnesian conquerors. Their walls and
fortifications were instantly leveled to the ground; and the
conquerors observed that in the demolition of Athens, succeeding
ages would fix the era of Grecian freedom. This memorable event
happened about 404 years before the Christian era; and thirty
“tyrants” were appointed by Lysander over the government of the
city.
 Pelta. A small light shield, sometimes attributed to the Amazons,
but used by numerous nations of antiquity, such as the inhabitants
of Thrace, Spain, and Mauritania, before its general introduction
among the Greeks. It consisted mainly of a frame of wood or wicker-
work covered with skin or leather, without the metallic rim, and of a
great variety of shapes. It was sometimes round, as in the special
case of the cetra, sometimes elliptical, sometimes variously situated
round the rim, sometimes even quadrangular, but most commonly
crescent-shaped or lunated, as alluded to in the “Amazonidum
lunatis agmina peltis” of Virgil. Soldiers bearing the pelta were called
peltastæ.
Pelusium. The Greek name of an ancient Egyptian city situated
on the northeastern angle of the Delta, and important as the key of
Egypt on the Asiatic side. Pelusium is called Sin in the Old
Testament. It first figures in semi-authentic history as the scene of
Sennacherib’s defeat, when (according to the Egyptian tradition, as
reported by Herodotus) the camp of the Assyrians was invaded at
night by a host of field-mice, who gnawed their bow-strings and
shield-straps, so that in the morning, when the Egyptians fell upon
them, they were defenseless. In 525 B.C., Cambyses overthrew, near
Pelusium, the forces of Pharaoh-Psammetichus. It surrendered to
Alexander in 333 B.C. The city was also taken by the Persians in 309
B.C.; and in 173 B.C., it was the scene of the defeat of Ptolemy
Philometor by Antiochus Epiphanes. Mark Antony captured it 55 B.C.,
and it opened its gates to Octavian after his victory at Actium, 31 B.C.
It was taken after a protracted resistance by Amrou, the Saracen, in
618.
Pembroke. A seaport town of South Wales, on a navigable creek
of Milford Haven, 210 miles west of London. In 1648 its castle was
beleaguered by Cromwell, and taken after a siege of six weeks.
Penalba, or Penalva. A village of Spain, province of Huesca, 18
miles northwest of Mequinenza. During the War of the Succession
the troops of Philip V. were here defeated in a bloody battle by the
army of the Archduke Charles, August 15, 1710.
 Penalty. In a military sense, signifies forfeiture for non-
performance, likewise punishment for embezzlement, etc.
Pencel. A small flag or streamer which was formerly carried at
the top of a lance;—called also pennoncel.
Pend d’Oreilles, or Kalispels (Calispels). A tribe of partially
civilized Indians, divided into several bands aggregating about 2000,
who reside in Washington, Idaho, and Montana Territories. A few of
this tribe are also to be found in British Columbia.
Pendant. In heraldry, a part hanging from the label, resembling
the drops in the Doric frieze.
Pendulum, Ballistic. See Ballistic Pendulum.
Pendulum Hausse. See Hausse, Pendulum.
Penetrating. Having the power of entering or piercing another
body.
Penetration of Spherical Projectiles. Their penetration when
of the same size, with different velocities or charges, is nearly as the
squares of the velocities; when of different sizes the penetration will
be proportionate to their diameters multiplied by the density, and
inversely as the tenacity of the medium. The depth of penetration of
a projectile fired from field-pieces at the distance of 500 or 600
yards, is from 41⁄2 to 6 feet in parapets recently constructed, and will
traverse walls of ordinary construction; but a 12-pounder is
necessary to make a breach in walls of good masonry and of 4 feet
in thickness, and in this case the position of the battery must be
favorable, and the operation a slow one. The depth of penetration of
projectiles fired from the 41⁄2-inch siege-gun, is about the same as
that of projectiles fired from the 30-pounder Parrott gun, namely, 12
feet. Sand, sandy earth mixed with gravel, small stones, chalk, and
tufa, resist shot better than the productive earths. Shells may be
considered as round shot of a lower specific gravity, and their
penetrations are therefore proportionally less. A bank of earth, to
afford a secure cover from heavy guns, will require a thickness from
18 to 24 feet. In guns below 18-pounders, if the number of the feet
in thickness of the bank be made equal to the number of pounds in
the weight of the shot by which it is to be assailed, the requisite
protection will be obtained. Earth possesses advantages over every
other material. It is easily obtained, regains its position after
displacement, and the injury done to an earthen battery by day can
be readily repaired at night. Where masonry is liable to be breached,
it should be covered with earth. Wrought-iron plates 41⁄2 inches in
thickness will withstand the effects of 32-pound shots, and of all
inferior calibers at short ranges, as 400 yards. Plates of this
thickness, however, are soon destroyed by 68-pound shots, and
afford little protection from the elongated shots of the new rifled
ordnance. To resist successfully the fall of heavy shells, buildings
must be covered with arches of good masonry, not less than 3 feet
thick, having bearings not greater than 25 feet, and these must be
again protected by a covering of several feet of earth. Iron plates
half an inch thick, oak planks 4 inches thick, or a 9-inch brick wall,
are proof against musketry or canister at a range of 100 yards. Iron
plates 1 inch thick, oak from 8 to 10 inches thick, a good wall a foot
thick or a firm bank of earth 4 feet thick, will afford secure cover
from grape-shot, from any but the largest guns at short ranges. The
common musket will drive its bullet about a foot and a half into well-
rammed earth, or it will penetrate from 6 to 10 half-inch elm boards
placed at intervals of an inch. The penetration of the rifled musket is
about twice that of the common musket. A rope matting or mantlet
31⁄2 inches thick is found to resist small-arm projectiles at all
distances; it may therefore be employed as a screen against
riflemen.
Peninsular War. A war which had for its theatre the kingdoms of
Spain and Portugal, and in which England, Spain, and Portugal
fought against France. It lasted from March, 1808, until May, 1814,
when the former powers were completely victorious.
Pennetière, or Panetière (Fr.). A pocket or small bag in which
slingers carried stones and leaden balls.
Pennon (Fr.). Formerly a copper wing of a long, light arrow
(vireton), substituted for a feather.
 Pennon. In former times was something like a banner, but with
the addition of a triangular point, charged with arms, and borne
before knights-bachelors.
Pennsylvania. One of the Middle States of the Atlantic slope, the
second in population in the Union, and one of the thirteen of the
original confederacy. The earliest settlements were made in 1627 by
a colony of Swedes and Finns, who established themselves on the
Delaware River, going as far northward as the locality of
Philadelphia. In 1665 a Dutch expedition from New Amsterdam took
formal possession of the country. The Dutch in their turn were
superseded by the English after the capture of New York in 1664;
and in 1681 the territory was granted by Charles II. to William Penn,
who with his co-religionists of the Society of Friends established a
Christian government “founded on peace, reason, and right.” Having
purchased the lands of the Indians, and conciliated them by
kindness and good will, he secured their friendship during seventy
years. Previous to the French and Indian war in 1755, the contests
waged between the French and English colonists had not reached
Pennsylvania; but in that year occurred the disastrous defeat of
Braddock, near Pittsburgh, in which Washington, then a young man,
distinguished himself. Pennsylvania took an active part in the
Revolutionary contest, and on her soil occurred the battles of
Brandywine and Germantown, September and October, 1777, the
massacres of Wyoming and Paoli, and the suffering winter
encampment at Valley Forge in 1777-78. The most prosperous of the
colonies, and in a central position, it became the seat of the
congress held by the colonies both before and after the decision of
the struggle. Independence was proclaimed here, and it remained
the seat of the general government until 1800. No State in the
confederacy has been more loyal to the Constitution. During the war
of 1812 she promptly furnished her quota of troops, and during the
civil war she sent nearly 400,000 men into the field. During this
trying period her territory was three times invaded: in 1862, when
Chambersburg (which see) was captured, and in 1864, when it was
burned; and in 1863, when it was invaded by Lee, and the battle of
Gettysburg fought on its soil.
Penobscots. A tribe of Indians, of Algonkin stock (numbering
about 500), who reside on an island in the Penobscot River, about 8
miles north of Bangor, Me. They were allies of the colonists in the
war of the Revolution, and received for their services a large tract of
land, the greater part of which has been from time to time disposed
of.
Penon de Velez. A fortified town, built on a high and steep rock,
lying off the north coast of Morocco, 75 miles southeast from Ceuta.
It belongs to Spain, and was founded by Pedro of Navarre in 1508.
It was taken by the Moors in 1522; but recovered by the Spaniards
in 1664.
Penrith. A town of England, county of Cumberland, 282 miles
north-northwest of London. On a knoll to the west of the town stand
the ruins of a castle, which was built by the Nevilles during the wars
of the Roses, and dismantled in the civil war by the Parliamentary
party. The town is a place of considerable antiquity, and it formerly
played a conspicuous part in the border warfare. It was taken by the
Scots several times in the 14th century, and in 1715 and 1745 was
occupied by the insurgents.
Pensacola. City and capital of Escambia Co., Fla., situated on the
west shore of Pensacola Bay, about 10 miles from the Gulf of
Mexico, has an excellent harbor, and is one of the safest in the Gulf.
Pensacola was settled by the Spaniards, occupied by the British in
1814, and acquired by the United States in 1821. It contains a navy-
yard, and is defended by Forts Pickens and McRae. During the civil
war, 1861-65, it was the scene of several military and naval
operations. The navy-yard was surrendered to the Confederates in
1861, but was recovered by the Union forces in the following year.
Pension. Specifically, a stated allowance to a person in
consideration of past services; payment made to one retired from
service, for age, disability, or other cause; especially a yearly stipend
paid by government to retired officers, disabled soldiers, the families
of soldiers killed, etc.
Pensioner. In the British army, is a soldier maintained in Chelsea
Hospital.
Pensioner, Out-. In the British army, is a soldier receiving a
pension, but not maintained in Chelsea Hospital. Those who are
capable of bearing arms are available for military service when
required.
Pensioners, Gentlemen. See Gentlemen-at-arms.
Penstock. A machine composed of timber, which, by means of a
movable board, enables the defenders of a fortress to allow such a
rush of water from the batardeaux as to inundate and destroy the
works which the enemy may have constructed in the ditch.
Pentagon. In fortification, a figure bounded by five sides, which
form so many angles, capable of being fortified with an equal
number of bastions. It also denotes a fort with five bastions.
Pentathlon. The five exercises performed in the Grecian games,
namely, leaping, running, quoiting, darting, and wrestling.
Penthouse. A shed hanging forward in a sloping direction from
the main wall of a place.
Pentland Hills. A range of hills in Scotland, commencing about 4
miles west from Edinburgh. Here the Scotch Presbyterians, since
called Cameronians, who had risen against the government, on
account of the establishment of Episcopacy, were defeated by the
royal troops, November 28, 1666.
Pentri. One of the most important of the tribes in Samnium; were
conquered by the Romans along with the other Samnites, and were
the only one of the Samnite tribes who remained faithful to the
Romans when the rest of the nation revolted to Hannibal in the
second Punic war.
Peons. East Indian municipal foot-soldiers. These men are chiefly
employed to assist in collecting the revenues, and carry a pike or
staff. Most persons in India keep servants, who wear a belt with
their master’s name on it. These are called peadahs.
Peoria Indians. A tribe of aborigines who formerly resided in
Illinois, but are now settled on the Quapaw agency, in Indian
Territory, in confederation with the Kaskaskias and other tribes. They
are but few in number, the northern tribes having nearly
exterminated them in 1769, in revenge for the murder of Pontiac.
Pequots, or Pequods. A tribe of Indians of Algonkin stock,
closely allied to the Mohegans, who resided in Eastern Connecticut.
The tribe was nearly exterminated by the colonists in the Pequot war
(1637).
Perclose, or Demi-Garter. In heraldry, the lower half of a garter
with the buckle.
Percussion. Is the impression which a body makes in falling or
striking against another, or the shock of two moving bodies. It is
either direct or oblique.
Percussion, Centre of. That point wherein the shock of the
percutient bodies is the greatest.
Percussion, Direct. Is where the impulse is given in the
direction of a right line perpendicular to the point of contact.
Percussion, Oblique. Is where the impulse is given in the
direction of a line oblique to the point of contact.
Percussion-bullet. A bullet made by placing a small quantity of
percussion powder in a copper envelope in the point of an ordinary
rifled-musket bullet.
Percussion-caps. See Caps, Percussion-.
Percussion-fuze. See Fuze.
Percussion-lock. A lock of a gun in which gunpowder is
exploded by fire obtained from the percussion of fulminating powder.
Percussion-match. A match which ignites by percussion.
Percussion-powder. Powder composed of such materials as to
ignite by slight percussion; fulminating powder.
Percutient. That which strikes or has power to strike.
 Perdu. A word adopted from the French, signifying to lie flat and
closely in wait. It likewise means employed on desperate purposes;
accustomed to desperate enterprises.
Pered (Hungary). Here the Hungarians under Görgey were
defeated by Wohlgemuth and the Russians, June 21, 1849.
Perekop. An isthmus 5 miles broad, connecting the Crimea with
the mainland. It was called by the Tartars Orkapou, “gate of the
Isthmus,” which the Russians changed to its present name, which
signifies a barren ditch. The Tartar fortress of the same name, which
was situated on this isthmus, was taken and destroyed by the
Russian marshal Münich in 1736, by assault, although it was
defended by 1000 Janissaries and 100,000 Tartars. It was again
strongly fortified by the khan, but was again taken by the Russians
in 1771, who have since retained it.
Peremptory. Whatever is absolute and final, not to be altered,
renewed, or restrained. Peremptory execution, what takes place
immediately.
Perfidious. Treacherous; false to trust; guilty of violated faith;
hence a perfidious foe. War, however melancholy in its effects, and
frequently unjustifiable in its cause and progress, is nevertheless,
among civilized nations, so far governed by certain principles of
honor as to render the observance of established laws and customs
an object of general acquiescence. When two or more countries are
engaged in a hostile contest, whatever belligerent party grossly
deviates from those rules is deservedly stamped with infamy, and
justly called a perfidious foe.
Perfidy. Want of faith; treachery.
Perforated Cake Powder. See Gunpowder.
Périgueux. A town of France, capital of the department of
Dordogne, 296 miles south-southwest from Paris. Périgueux
occupies the site of the ancient Vesunna, which was at the time of
the Roman invasion the capital of the Petrocorii. Under the empire, it
was a place of no small importance, as it stood at the junction of
five roads, and was strongly fortified. It was ceded, along with
Aquitaine, to the English by Louis IX. After having been recovered by
the French, the town was again lost; but it was finally taken from
the English by Charles V. During the civil wars of the Reformation, it
was a stronghold of the Protestants till the year 1581; and it was not
till 1653 that it came into the power of the crown.
Peril. Instant or impending danger; risk; hazard; jeopardy;
exposure to injury, loss, or destruction.
Peril. To expose to danger; to hazard; to risk, etc.
Perim. A small island belonging to Great Britain, situated in the
strait of Bab-el-Mandeb, at the entrance to the Red Sea, about 1
mile distant from the Arabian, and about 13 miles from the African
coast. On its southwest side is an excellent harbor, capable of
accommodating 40 men-of-war. Fortifications have been erected on
the island, and the guns command the strait on both sides. It was
first occupied by the English in 1799, and held by them as a check
upon the designs of the French, who were then in Egypt. It was
abandoned in 1801, but was reoccupied by Great Britain in February,
1857, with a view to the protection of her Indian possessions, which
were thought to be exposed to some chance of danger from the
opening of the Suez Canal.
Perjury. False swearing; the act or crime of willfully making a
false oath, when lawfully administered; or the crime committed
when a lawful oath is administered, in some judicial proceeding, to a
person who swears willfully, absolutely, and falsely in a matter
material to the issue. For punishment of persons convicted of
perjury, see Appendix, Articles of War, 60 and 62.
Perkernucka. Petty officers are so called in India.
Perm. A government of Russia, situated partly in Russia in Europe
and partly in Russia in Asia. It was invaded and ruined by the
Mongols in the 13th century.
Permanent Fortification. See Fortification.
Permanent Rank. A rank in the military service which does not
cease with any particular service, or locality of circumstances; in
opposition to local or temporary rank.
 Péronne. A town of France, in the department of Somme, 30
miles east of Amiens. Louis XI. of France, having placed himself in
the power of the Duke of Burgundy, was forced to sign the treaty of
Péronne, confirming those of Arras and Conflans, with several
humiliating stipulations, October 14, 1468. Louis XI. had promised
Champagne and Brié as appanages to his brother Charles, duke of
Berry, not intending to keep his word, apprehending that those
provinces, being so near Burgundy, would prove a fresh source of
broils and disputes. Péronne was a place of much importance in the
Middle Ages, and bore the name of La Pucelle (“The Maiden City”),
as it was never captured till Wellington took it eight days after the
battle of Waterloo.
Perpendicular Direction. In the march of a line, is the direction
at right angles to the line which each man should take in a direct
movement to the front. Without the strictest attention is paid to this
essential principle in all movements, the greatest irregularity, and
ultimately the greatest confusion, must ensue. Perpendicular and
parallel movements constitute, indeed, the whole system of good
marching. When several columns, divisions, or companies advance,
the lines and directions of marching must be strictly perpendicular
and parallel to each other, otherwise the distance will be lost, and
the ultimate object of forming a correct line must be defeated.
Perpendicular Fortification. Owes its origin to the Marquis de
Montalembert, a distinguished French general, who published his
works upon the subject in 1776. Vauban had, it was admitted,
rendered the art of attack superior to that of defense. Montalembert
strove to reverse this relation, and in his endeavors, rejected entirely
the bastion system of the older engineers. Instead of the occasional
bastions, with intervening curtains, with which they surrounded their
enceinte, he broke the whole polygon into salient and re-entering
angles, the latter being generally at right angles. Before the
connected redans thus formed were counterguards of low elevation
and ravelins, to which the approaches were through casemated
caponnieres. In the salient angle of each redan he built a brick
tower, 40 feet in diameter, twelve-sided, and four stories high. The
second and third tiers were built for heavy guns, and the upper loop-
holed for musketry. In the centre of the tower was a circular reduit,
intended as a last refuge for the garrison. Montalembert maintained
that from these towers every possible approach could be
commanded, which to a great extent is true; but it must be also
remembered that the greater space a gun commands, by so much
the more is it raised above the plain, and rendered visible. These
towers would have little chance against the rifled ordnance of the
present day. Montalembert’s system was violently attacked by the
French engineers, but Carnot subsequently adopted it, with some
modifications, and it enters largely into the modern German
defensive works. The system has never, however, found favor with
British engineers.
Perpendicular, Gunner’s. See Gunner’s Level.
Perpignan. A town of France, in the department of the Eastern
Pyrenees, situated on the Tet, 35 miles from Narbonne. It
commands the passage by the Eastern Pyrenees from Spain into
France, and is defended on the south by a citadel and by ramparts
flanked with bastions, and protected by raised works. Perpignan now
ranks as one of the first strongholds in France. In 1474 the town
was taken by Louis XI. of France, but having been restored to Spain,
it was again taken by Louis XIII. in 1642, and, along with the
province of Roussillon, finally ceded to France by the treaty of the
Pyrenees in 1659. In 1793 a battle was fought in its neighborhood
between the Spaniards and the French, in which the former were
defeated.
Perrhæbi. A powerful and warlike Pelasgis people, who,
according to Strabo, migrated from Eubœa to the mainland, and
settled in the districts of Hestiætos and Pelasgiotis in Thessaly. The
Perrhæbi were members of the Amphictyonic League. At an early
period they were subdued by the Lapithæ; at the time of the
Peloponnesian war they were subject to the Thessalians, and
subsequently to Philip of Macedon; but at the time of the Roman
wars in Greece they appear independent of Macedonia.
 Perrières. A kind of short mortars formerly much used for
throwing stone shot.
Persepolis. An ancient city, the capital of Persia at the time of
the invasion of Alexander the Great, and the seat of the chief
palaces of the Persian kings. The city is said to have been burned by
Alexander, and is not subsequently mentioned in history except in
the second book of the Maccabees, where it is stated that Antiochus
Epiphanes made a fruitless effort to plunder its temples. In the later
times of the Mohammedan rule, the fortress of Istakhr seems to
have occupied the place of Persepolis.
Persia (Per. Iran). A country of Asia, which may be considered as
the most opulent and powerful of any that lie to the west of India; it
is bounded on the west by Turkey in Asia, north by Caucasus, the
Caspian Sea, and Asiatic Russia, east by Afghanistan and
Beloochistan, and south by the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea. The
Persians, as a nation, first rose into notice on the ruins of the great
empires founded on the Euphrates. Babylon was taken by Cyrus in
638 B.C., and soon after he extended it more widely than any that
had been previously established in the world. It comprised, on one
side, the west of India, and on the other, Asia Minor, Syria, and
Egypt; and the valor, indeed, with which the Greeks defended their
small territory, alone prevented him from annexing a considerable
part of Europe to his domains. After a feeble struggle, it succumbed
to the brave and disciplined armies of Alexander, who won the entire
empire of Darius Codomanus for his own by force of arms, in 331.
After his death, his immense possessions were divided among his
generals; but Greeks and Greek sovereigns continued during several
centuries to reign over Western Asia. About 2 B.C. Artaxerxes
founded the monarchy of the Parthians; and in 3 A.D. the dynasty of
the Sassanidæ arose, who restored the name, with the religion and
laws, of ancient Persia. They were overthrown by the Mohammedan
invaders, who suffered in their turn from the successive invasions of
the country by the descendants of Genghis Khan, Tamerlane, and
the Turks, who entirely changed the aspect of Western Asia. At
length, in 1501, a native dynasty again arose, under Ismael Shah,
who placed himself on the throne. After the reign of Abbas the
Great, who died in 1628, the princes of the Safi dynasty became
enervated by luxury and dissipation, and Persia, in the beginning of
the last century, was overrun by the Afghans, who carried fire and
sword throughout the whole country, and reduced its proudest
capitals to ashes. The atrocities of the Afghans were avenged, and
the independence of Persia vindicated, by Nadir Shah; but though
the victories of this daring chief threw a lustre on his country, it was
almost torn to pieces after his death by civil war, till the fortune of
arms gave a decided superiority to Kerim Khan. His death gave rise
to another disputed succession, with civil wars as furious as before.
At length Aga-Mohammed, a eunuch, raised himself in 1795 by
crimes and daring to the sovereignty, and not only held it during his
lifetime, but transmitted it to his nephew, who assumed the title of
Feth Ali Shah, and subdued the rebellious tribes in Khorassan, but
was dragged into a war with Russia, in which he lost the power of
Derbend and several districts on the Kur. In 1848, Nasr-ed-Din, the
great-grandson of Feth Ali, succeeded to the throne, and in
consequence of the capture of Herat by the Persians in 1856, war
was declared against them by Great Britain. Bushire was occupied,
and the Persian troops were twice defeated by Gen. Outram at
Kooshab and Mohammerah in the following year. These victories
were followed by the conclusion of a treaty of peace, April, 1857,
and the evacuation of Herat by the Persians in the month of July.
Personnel (Fr.). All the officers and men, military and civil,
composing an army, or any part of one, as opposed to matériel.
Personnel of a Battery. All officers and men necessary for the
manœuvre, management, and care of a battery.
Perspective. Is the art of drawing the resemblance of objects on
a plane surface, as the objects themselves appear to the eye, etc.
Perth. The principal town of Perthshire, and formerly the
metropolis of Scotland, situated on the Tay, which is crossed here by
a fine stone bridge, 33 miles from Edinburgh. It is one of the most
ancient towns of Scotland. It is a generally received opinion that
Perth was built and fortified by Agricola, who erected a citadel to
maintain his conquests, and check the wild spirit of the savage
natives. In 1298, after the battle of Falkirk, Edward I. fortified Perth
and rebuilt the walls in the strongest manner. The worthy burgesses
of this town seem to have been men of mettle in those days, and on
various occasions sallying forth from behind their walls, set fire to
the castles of their haughty neighbors, when the latter had forbidden
their vassals to carry provisions to the city. In the year 1311, Robert
Bruce laid siege to the town, but was obliged to withdraw his troops,
after various unsuccessful attempts to take it; but subsequently,
choosing a dark night, he led a selected band of determined men
against it, scaled the walls, and carried the town sword in hand, the
king himself being the second man who entered the place. About the
beginning of the 14th century, the famous combat between the Clan
Chattan and the Clan Quhele, or Clan Kay, took place on the North
Inch, and was decided in favor of the former, partly by the bravery
of a citizen or burgess called Harry Wind, whom the chief of the Clan
Chattan had engaged on the spot to supply the place of one of his
men who had failed to appear. In 1544, the regent, at the instigation
of Cardinal Bethune, turned Lord Ruthven, provost of the town, out
of his office, and conferred it upon Chartres of Kinfauns. The
citizens, however, resisted the attempt, and repulsed, in a smart
skirmish, the cardinal’s nominee, who came to enter upon his duties
at the head of an armed force. In 1559, after a riotous insurrection,
during which the Catholic churches were demolished, the queen
determined to inflict the severest vengeance on the Reformers. Both
parties took the field; negotiations ensued; Perth was thrown open
to the queen, and occupied by a French garrison. Relief from the
insolence and exactions of the garrison was only obtained after a
regular siege by the Reformers. On June 26, Lord Ruthven attacked
the town on the west, and Provost Halyburton of Dundee fired into it
from the bridge, and speedily obliged the garrison to capitulate.
Subsequently, Argyle, and Stewart, prior of St. Andrews, marched
out of Perth with 300 citizens, resolved to prosecute the
Reformation, or perish in the attempt. The people joined them
everywhere as they proceeded, and before they reached Stirling
their numbers had increased to 5000. The gates of Stirling and every
other town in their way were thrown open to receive them. They,
without violence, took possession of Edinburgh, cast the images out
of its churches, and placed in them ministers of the Reformation.
Peru. A republic of South America, formed out of the former
Spanish viceroyalty of the same name. The first information received
of the country by the Spaniards was obtained from a young cacique
in the neighborhood of the Isthmus of Darien about the year 1511.
In 1513, Vasco Nuñez de Balboa crossed the mountains which
separated the two oceans, and took possession of the Pacific in the
name of the king of Castile. He extended his discoveries many
leagues southward, but appears not to have reached the territory of
Peru. In 1525, Francisco Pizarro, a soldier of mean birth but of
daring spirit, who had accompanied Balboa in the previous
expedition, embarking at Panama with about 100 men, landed in
Peru, and spent three years in exploring the country. Having
returned to Spain with presents of gold and jewels for the king, he
was sent out with orders to effect the conquest of the newly-
discovered country. Recrossing the ocean with 180 men and 27
horses, he again set sail from Panama, and receiving some further
reinforcements at Puerto Viejo and Puna, now considered himself in
a fit position to enter upon the proper scene of his labors. He
accordingly crossed over to Tumbez, and there learned that the
country had for some time been distracted by a civil war between
Huascar and Atahuallpa, two sons of the late inca. Pizarro saw at
once the importance to him and his cause of this state of the
country. After some time spent in reconnoitring, he fixed upon a
fertile spot in the rich valley of Tangarala as a site for a settlement.
Here he established a town which he called San Miguel. On
September 24, 1532, leaving 50 men as a guard for this new
settlement, he started out with 167 men, 67 of whom were cavalry,
to meet the inca Atahuallpa, who now victorious over his brother
was encamped with his army about ten or twelve days’ journey off.
His force was everywhere received with kindness; an envoy from the
inca was sent with presents to meet and invite him to an interview
at Caxamarca. The Spaniards arrived here November 15, 1532, and
treacherously prepared to use the unsuspecting kindness of the
Peruvians as the means of their destruction. When at the appointed
time the inca accompanied by his nobles and retinue was proceeding
to the place of interview, he and his followers were assailed by the
Spaniards who were concealed in the neighboring buildings,
thousands of the unsuspecting and unarmed natives were slain, and
Atahuallpa himself taken prisoner. An immense ransom was offered
for him; it was accepted by Pizarro, who, however, basely refused to
give up his prisoner, but after a mockery of a trial put him to death.
For many years the country was in a state of war and anarchy,
resulting finally in Pizarro becoming master of Peru in 1546, and it
became a viceroyalty of Spain. In its subsequent history there is
matter of little interest till the war of independence, which was
proclaimed in 1821 by Gen. San Martin, and successfully terminated
by Bolivar, who, after a succession of engagements, the most
notable of which was that of Ayacucho (which see), finally drove the
Spaniards from Callao, their last stronghold, July 29, 1826. The
country has since on several occasions been the scene of those
insurrections to which the states of Spanish America have been
subject. In 1879 war was proclaimed between Peru and Chili, which
has recently terminated in a complete victory for the latter.
Perugia (anc. Perusia). A city of Central Italy, 10 miles east of the
lake of the same name, and 85 north of Rome. It formed in ancient
times one of the twelve Etrurian republics. In conjunction with other
cities of Etruria, it long resisted the power of the Romans, but was
finally ruined by the latter, having been defeated in two
engagements, 309 and 295 B.C., and becoming subject to Rome in
294. It is memorable in the civil wars as the refuge of L. Antonius,
the brother of the triumvir, when unable to oppose the progress of
Octavianus. It was held by the latter for some months and was
compelled to surrender through famine, and burned to the ground in
40 B.C. It was afterwards rebuilt by Augustus, and was captured by
the Goths under Totila at the fall of the Western empire. It was
afterwards united to the Papal States, and in 1860 became part of
the kingdom of Italy.
 Perugia, Lake of. See Trasimenus Lacus.
Perusia. See Perugia.
Pescara. A town of Italy, province of Chieti. It was formerly
strongly fortified, and has stood many sieges.
Peschiera. A frontier town and fortress of Italy, in Lombardy, at
the south extremity of the Lake of Garda, 20 miles north-northwest
from Mantua. Peschiera commands the right bank of the river
Mincio. During the French republican war, it was a simple pentagon.
Its fortifications, however, have been greatly strengthened by the
Austrians. It is defended by walls and by forts, lunettes, fosses, and
a covered way; and the purpose which it is mainly intended to serve,
besides that of forming an intrenched camp capable of
accommodating a considerable number of troops, is to harass an
army attempting to cross the Mincio by Goito or Valeggio. It has
been taken frequently by siege, by the French in 1796; by the
Austrians and Russians, 1799; by the French again, 1801; given up
by them, 1814; taken by the Sardinian troops under Charles Albert,
May 30, 1848; retaken by Radetzky, 1849. It was invested by the
Sardinians in June, 1859, after the battle of Solferino. The conclusion
of the treaty of Villafranca, however (July 11, 1859), relieved
Peschiera from a siege, and it was included in the kingdom of Italy
by treaty of Vienna, 1866.
Peshawur. A city of British India, capital of the province of
Peshawur (or Peshawer), about 18 miles east of the eastern
extremity of the Khyber Pass. It was founded by the Mogul emperor
Akbar. Runjeet Singh took it after his victory over the Afghans at
Noushera, and destroyed many of its finest buildings.
Pesth. A city of Hungary, situated on the Danube, opposite to
Buda, with which it is connected by a bridge of boats three-quarters
of a mile in length. It was repeatedly taken and besieged in the wars
of Hungary, particularly in the long contests with the Turks. The
great insurrection broke out here September 28, 1848. Buda-Pesth
was taken by the Imperialists, January 5, 1849. The Hungarians
afterwards defeated the Austrians, who were obliged to evacuate it
April 18, 1849; but the latter, under Gen. Hentzi, occupied Buda, and
a severe contest began between the two parties. On May 4, Görgei,
with an army of 40,000 Hungarians, occupied the heights above
Buda, and began to bombard that town; while the Austrians in their
turn directed their artillery against the lower city of Pesth. On May
16, the Hungarians made an unsuccessful attack on Buda, but on
the 20th the place was taken by assault, after an obstinate and
bloody struggle.
Pestle. An instrument used in the fabrication of gunpowder.
Petards. Are instruments used for blowing open gates,
demolishing palisades, etc. They consist of a half-cone of thick iron,
filled with powder and ball; they are usually fastened to a plank, and
the latter is provided with hooks to allow of its being attached
securely to a gate, etc. The petard has been almost universally
superseded by the use of powder-bags.
Petardeer, or Petardier. One who manages petards.
Petelia, or Petilia (now Strongoli). An ancient Greek town on the
eastern coast of Bruttium; founded, according to tradition, by
Philoctetes. It was situated north of Croton, to whose territory it
originally belonged, but it was afterward conquered by the
Lucanians. It remained faithful to the Romans when the other cities
of Bruttium revolted to Hannibal, and it was not till after a long and
desperate resistance that it was taken by one of Hannibal’s generals.
Peterero, or Pedrero. A short piece of chambered ordnance was
formerly so called.
Petersburg. A city of Dinwiddie Co., Va., on the south bank of the
Appomattox River, about 25 miles from Richmond. The city is one of
historic interest. It was twice occupied by the British forces as
headquarters during the Revolutionary war; but it is principally noted
as the scene of several sanguinary encounters during the civil war,
and for the obstinate and bloody defense which it made. On June
15-16, 1864, two formidable assaults were made on it by the Army
of the Potomac under Gen. Grant, but they were repulsed with
heavy loss. It was then determined to invest the city, which was
done a few days later. On July 30, another attempt was made to
take it by storm, but without success. The siege was prolonged with
many indecisive operations until April 3, 1865, after a week’s
bombardment it was evacuated by Gen. Lee, who surrendered six
days later.
Petersburg, St. The capital and most populous city of the
Russian empire, at the mouth of the Neva in the Gulf of Finland, 16
miles east of Cronstadt, and 400 miles northwest of Moscow. It was
founded by Peter the Great, May 27, 1703. The peace of St.
Petersburg, between Russia and Prussia, the former restoring all her
conquests to the latter, was signed May 5, 1762. Treaty of St.
Petersburg for the partition of Poland, August 5, 1772. Treaty of St.
Petersburg, led to a coalition against France, September 8, 1805.
Treaty of Alliance, signed at St. Petersburg, between Bernadotte,
prince royal of Sweden, and the emperor Alexander; the former
agreeing to join in the campaign against France, in return for which
Sweden was to receive Norway, March 24, 1812.
Peterwalden (Germany), Convention of. Between Great Britain
and Russia, by which a firm and decisive alliance between these
powers was made against France and the course of action against
Napoleon Bonaparte was planned, signed July 8, 1813. This alliance
led to the overthrow of Bonaparte in the next year.
Peterwardein, or Varadin. The capital town of Slavonia, Austria,
and the strongest fortress on the Danube, is situated on a scarped
rock, on the right bank of the Danube, opposite Neusatz, with which
town it is connected by a bridge of boats, defended by a strong tête-
de-pont, 44 miles northwest of Belgrade. It is the residence of the
general commandant of the Slavonian military frontier, and of several
subordinate military authorities. It derives its present name from
Peter the Hermit, who here marshaled the soldiers of the first
Crusade. Peterwardein was taken by the Turks, July, 1526. In 1688,
the fortifications were blown up by the Imperialists, and the town
was soon after burned to the ground by the Turks; but at the peace
of Passarowitz, on July 21, 1718, it remained in the possession of
the emperor. It was here that, on August 5, 1716, the Austrians,
under Prince Eugène, obtained a great victory over the Turks under
Grand Vizer Ali; the latter then lost their last footing in Central
Europe.
Petra. The Sela of the Old Testament, the chief town of Arabia
Petræa, once the capital of the Idumeans, and subsequently of the
Nabatæi. It was subdued by A. Cornelius Palma, a lieutenant of
Trajan’s, and remained under the dominion of the Romans a
considerable time, and its destruction is supposed at length to have
been wrought by the Mohammedans.
Petra. An ancient town of Colchis, in the land of the Lazi, founded
by Joannes Tzibus, a general of Justinian, to keep these people in
subjection. It was situated on a rock near the coast, and was very
strongly fortified. It was taken by Chosroes in 541 A.D., and its
subsequent siege by the Romans is described by Gibbon as one of
the most remarkable actions of the age. The first siege was relieved;
but it was again attacked by the Romans, and was at length taken
by assault, after a long protracted resistance, in 551 A.D. It was then
destroyed by the Romans, and from that time disappears from
history.
Petra. An ancient and strong fortress in Sogdiana, held by
Arimazes when Alexander attacked it.
Petronel (Fr. petrinal, or poitronal). A piece between a carbine
and a pistol (with a wheel-lock), which was used by the French
during the reign of Francis I.; it was held against the breast when
fired. To prevent any injury from its recoil, the soldier who used it
was provided with a pad.
Petropaulovski. A fortified town on the east coast of
Kamtschatka, was attacked by an English and French squadron
August 30, 1854. They destroyed the batteries, and a party of 700
sailors and marines landed to assault the place, but fell into an
ambuscade, and many were killed. After this the Russians greatly
strengthened their defenses, but on May 30, 1855, the allied
squadron in the Pacific arriving here found the place deserted. The
fortifications were destroyed, but the town was spared.
 Pettah. In Southern India, a term applied to the enceinte of a
town, as distinguished from the fortress by which it is protected.
Pettman Fuze. See Fuze.
Pfaffendorf and Liegnitz. See Liegnitz.
Pfedersheim. A town of Germany, in Hesse-Darmstadt, 4 miles
northwest from Worms. A battle was fought here, in 1555, which
brought the “Peasants’ war” to a termination.
Phalanx. The ancient Greek formation for heavy infantry, which
won for itself a reputation of invincibility. It may be described as a
line of parallel columns, rendered by its depth and solidity capable of
penetrating any line of troops. The oldest phalanx was the
Lacedæmonian, or Spartan, in which the soldiers stood 8 deep, but
this was reduced to 4 men by Miltiades, in order to increase his front
at the battle of Marathon, 480 B.C. The Macedonian phalanx, as the
latest form that organization assumed, and as the shape in which
the phalanx encountered the military skill of the West, is deserving
of description. The line was 16 deep: a grand-phalanx comprising
16,384 men, composed of four phalanxes or divisions, each under a
general officer, called a phalangarch; his command was divided into
two brigades, or merarchies, each of these comprising two
regiments, or chiliarches, of four battalions, or syntagmata, each,
and each syntagma of 16 men each way, making a perfect square.
The Roman legion was far superior to the phalanx.
Phalsbourg. A strong town of Alsace, department of La Meurthe,
Northeast France. It was ceded to France in 1661, and its fortress
erected by Vauban, 1679. It checked the progress of the victorious
allies both in 1814 and 1815, and withstood the Germans from
August 16 to December 12, 1870, when it capitulated
unconditionally.
Pharax. One of the council of ten appointed by the Spartans in
418 B.C. to control Agis. At the battle of Mantinea in that year, he
restrained the Lacedæmonians from pressing too much on the
defeated enemy, and so running the risk of driving them to despair.
In 396 B.C. he laid siege with 120 ships to Caunus, where Conon was
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