© Tv Sense & Commons

CLIMATE CHANGE AS A
SECURITY THREAT IN
NIGERIA AND THE SAHEL
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Nigeria Policy Brief, June 2022
ISBN - 978-978-795-343-3

Contributors
Oseloka H. Obaze | Dr Chris M.A. Kwaja | Dr Freedom C. Onuoha | Dr Sunday Adejoh
| Arigbabu Sulaimon | Chidiebere Ugwu (MCSD)

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© Paul Atsu

CLIMATE CHANGE AS A SECURITY THREAT IN NIGERIA

The phenomenon of climate change is an existential reality and a threat to the global system. It is in recognition
of the changes within the ecology, the variations in climatic conditions vis-à-vis the implications of this changes
that nations have come up with mitigating and adaptive strategies to cushion the negative impact of climate
change. There has been an increase in research amongst scholars on the nexus between climate change and
insecurity and climate change as threat multiplier. Climate change is a security threat as well as a threat multiplier.
The United Nations has organised series of climate change conferences to identify and examine the impact of
climate change on human security and also the proffer strategic recommendations and roadmaps for nation’s
states to adhere to. The threats posed by climate change have attracted global attention. Just as the impacts of
climate change differ from one continent to another the level of commitment by states and non-state actors in
addressing the threats posed by climate change also varies. There seems to be more commitment on the part of
the global north as the global north takes drastic measures to counter the effects but same could not be said of
the global south. Africa, with the fast-growing population, faces the severest reality that is driven by climate
change. There is a growing consensus that climate change is by far the biggest existential threat to life on Planet

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Earth. Although climate has always changed naturally and will

continue to do so even without human beings disrupting the
ecological equilibrium, it has become clear that the rate and intensity
of the change our planet is experiencing now is largely anthropogenic
and catastrophic. Climate change exacerbates and multiplies existing
challenges confronting our world, especially insecurity.

To appreciate climate change as a security threats and threat

multiplier, it is best to situate the discuss within the context of both
the traditional and modern conception of security. Though there are
existing security threats that are unconnected to climate change, but
climate change has further exacerbated such conflict thereby
increasing the rate of insecurity and political instability. Environmental
security, climate justice, human security, food insecurity amongst
several others is key issues that are climate change related. Agriculture
has become the singular worst hit by climate change as it implicates
a core need for human survival, the need to eat. Food has become a
major target of extreme weather conditions; small scale farmers are
among the worst-hit in terms of exposure and vulnerability.
© Getty Image
Disappearing arable land and water bodies has gradually increased conflicts between farmers and pastoralist with
respects to access to depleted or disappearing natural resource. This interplay is quite frequent in the north. The
south of Nigeria is faced with not disappearing resources but increased anthropogenic actions from industrial
scale pollution to criminal and illegal logging of woods for commercial purposes in the remaining forest areas.
Illegal mining and oil spills continue to pollute the land and underground water making them unfit for farming
and drinking, hence livelihood comes into questions again.

With Africa contributing about 4% of Green House Gas (GHG) and contributing the least in heating up the
atmosphere, the continent is most vulnerable to the effects of changing weather. The Sahel has the perfect
combination of population growth, rising urbanisation, environmental degradation, violent extremist
organisations, and weak state capacity all aggravated by climate change to create the perfect storm for insecurity.
The internal contractions amongst states in the Sahel and the inability of the states to properly integrate and
articulate the conflicting interests is a major reason for the escalation of climate change induced conflict. Source
conflicts in Nigeria such as the farmers-pastoralist conflict, the Niger Delta conflict, energy crisis, banditry and
cattle rustling are further worsened by climate change.

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Worthy of note in relationship between climate change, human security and threat multiplication is the impact of
climate change on People with Disabilities (PWD), children and women who are more vulnerable in the phase of
conflict. Whether or not conflict is induced by climate change or other factors, People with disability are usually
victims as they are cut helplessly in the middle. These categories of people can hardly help themselves in most
cases are they are either physically impaired or crippled. Another category of people with disability whose lives
are threatened by climate change are those suffering from albinism. The increase in sunlight and temperature has
led to increase is skin cancer and other life-threatening disease. This is not to talk about the stigmatization,
prejudices, and stereotype that they go through.

Nigeria is not isolated in this equation as Nigeria unfortunately is a major climate theatre in the Sahel due to its
geographical location; the country is straddled from the north by the expanding Sahara Desserts and from the
south by the threatening sea level rise of the Atlantic Ocean. Situating her between this axis of evil burdened with
exploding population, overcrowded urban centres, a weak economy, poor governance, corruption, poverty,
unemployment, and conflicts Nigeria is sure in one big precarious climate and security crisis.

Notwithstanding the prevailing existential threat posed by climate change, not much has been done with respect
to mitigating the underlying environmental problems. Nigeria seems not to be doing enough in addressing the
underlying threats. These threats, unattended to have led to hydra headed security challenges bedevilling the
country. This policy brief therefore is an attempt to examine and showcase the nexus between climate change and
insecurity in Nigeria with a view to looking at regional actions and events that influence national conversations
and responses to climate change.

Climate Justice and Climate Change

Climate change is an existential threat and a threat

multiplier that must be framed primarily from the human
rights, justice, and economic perspective and properly
situated within the contexts of healthy international
relations and global peace. Impacts of climate change
cost lives and livelihoods, it pushes people into poverty
and hinders them from lifting themselves out of it. It aids
the spreading of diseases; it deepens inequality between
and among countries, gender, and social class. It
threatens the attainment of SDGs and reverses the gains
made in improving the quality of life in both developed
© TV Sense & Commons

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and less developed countries of the world. It is
imperative therefore to address Environmental Environmental Justice would mean paying
Justice, Social and Political Justice and most reparation by way of clean-up of the lands that
importantly Climate Justice. These would not be have been exploited and explored in the Niger
possible without environmental security. United Delta with devastating effects on the environment,
Nations Environment Programme describes Livelihood and health of communities
environmental security as a “conceptual
envelope” including a variety of issues involving the role that the environment and natural resources can play
across the peace and security continuum, including environmental causes and drivers of conflict, environmental
impacts of conflict, environmental recovery and post-conflict peacebuilding.

Environmental justice would address the issue of the over 38 million people caught between the Sahel and Lake
Chad area, these are stranded communities that need water for irrigation and drinking, communities that are
victims of government inability to recharge the Lake Chad. Water in the lake would have meant more fisherfolks
less bandits, more arable land and less farmers dying in the farms, more youth engaged in agriculture and less
youth doing drugs. The continuous proliferation of violent non-state actors would have been curtailed as their
major source of recruitment would have been plugged and the current insecurity nipped in the bud. Environmental
Justice for them means recharging the Lake that has dried up more than 95% since 1975.

Environmental Justice would mean paying reparation by way of clean-up of the lands that
have been exploited and explored in the Niger Delta with devastating effects on the environment, Livelihood and
health of communities. The current ecocide happening in the Niger Delta region has led to youth restiveness.
Young men and women who could be fishing or farming could not because of the industrial scale pollution that
has been happening in the land. With life expectancy drastically reduced, stranded communities are slowly
disappearing as children become elders in polluted lands and waters where they can neither farm nor fish, these
young ones resorts to the barrel of the gun to press home their demand for environmental justice and call the
attention of the government to their stranded state.

Social and Political Justice remains the base or conduit to achieving environmental justice. This includes making
changes to policies and laws surrounding resource control, power, inclusion and penalties. These are the vehicles
that made the escalating environmental crimes possible in the first place. The way our environmental laws are
crafted and operated have only led to youth restiveness, gender inequality, trust deficit in government,
restructuring all of which have snowballed into political apathy and/or secessionist agitations birthing another
level of arms bearing non-state actors in the arena of an already fragile country.

Social and Political Justice means matching policies with actions, writing and rewriting policies and laws to cater
for the livelihood of the of citizens affected by the worsening climate conditions, diversify the economy, meet our

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NDC obligations recharge the Lake Chad, Clean Up Ogoni Land, sustainable town planning, best practices, and
all.
Climate justice in the Nigeria context means a shared burned of the all the effects of climate change bedevilling
the country. While Climate Justice in our context seems tricky due to our gender, class, and occupational
peculiarities, we need to make those peculiarities work to our advantage by crafting response measures that will
take into consideration our socio-political construct and deliver to us the best climate just solutions.

© Source: UNEP (2011, p.14)

Security Threats Heightened by Climate Change in Nigeria and the Sahel

West Africa and the Sahel region are grappling with several security challenges in the post-colonial era. The
geopolitical architecture vis-à-vis the ecological characteristics of these regions has in no small way contributed
to precipitating insecurity. Environmental variability in West African and the Sahel has given rise to the
manifestation of conflicts and insecurities. The farmers-herders conflict, banditry, Niger Delta conflict, trans-
border crimes, insecurity in the Lake Chad Basin, etc are instances of environmentally induced crises.

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The ecosystems reflect a complex

interdependent web of living organisms and The securitization of climate change
natural resources, play a critical role in
supporting human wellbeing and driving
and resource induced conflict is in
economic growth through the valuable tandem with contemporary
services they provide such as food, water for
perspectives of security which differs
drinking and irrigation, pollination, and
climate regulation. Yet human society has from the state-centric and militaristic
systematically undermined these natural
orientation
allies, treating forests, arable land, and rivers
as though they are inexhaustible.

There is a causal relationship between climate exacerbation of vulnerability and conflict in Northern
variability and human security as evidenced in Nigeria is both a product of the impact of climate
several parts of the international system. This change and drought leading to competition
variability has in different instances contributed to between farmers and pastoralists. The spill-over
conflicts. Hence the need for environmental security. effect of this lies in the multi-dimensional
Environmental security has been described as a manifestations of these conflicts as it has led to
bundle of issues that involves the role that the increase in the proliferation of Small Arms and Light
environment and natural resources can play in peace Weapons, loss of lives and properties, loss of
and security, including environmental causes and livelihood, internally displays persons, food
drivers of conflict, environmental impacts of conflict, insecurity, economic stagnation amongst several
environmental recovery, and post-conflict security crisis. bearing in mind the pluralistic nature
peacebuilding. Ecological and environmental of Nigeria and the fact that most herders are muslins
variations have accounted for different forms of and most farmers in north central Nigeria are
insecurities either by serving as springboards for Christians, the conflict between herders and farmers
insecurity or as security threats in themselves. has also assumed an ethno-religious dimension
Pastoralist-farmers conflict is a form of rural violence further widening the cleavage and already fracture
that is manifested in different parts of Africa and fragile unity in Nigeria.
particularly in the Sahel region and sub- Saharan
State Fragility means weak state capacity to carry out
Africa.
basic governance functions. Sahel region is
There are existing and emerging security threats in incredibly diverse in terms of culture, politics,
Nigeria precipitated and further worsened by climate ethnicity, economics and climates. Amidst its rich
change. Resource induced conflicts such as the diversity, several factors – including population
pastoralist-farmers and the Niger Delta conflicts growth, poverty, and poor governance – have made
have been further fuelled by climate change. The several states in the region very fragile. Climate

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change is compounding this trend, by exacerbating tensions and potentially triggering new conflicts in the context
of pre-existing conflict drivers. The resultant security outcomes have included heightened proliferation of Small
Arms and Light Weapons (SALWs), population displacement, strengthening of violent extremism, growth in
organized crimes, and overall political instability which ultimately climaxes in livelihood collapse.

Under the combined effect of state fragility, conflict, drought and floods, land and water bodies are deteriorating
and losing its fertility and fish supplies. Insufficient rain-fed irrigation means that crops fail or are destroyed, while
livestock struggle to find water for drinking and sufficient pasture. Loss of millions of hectares of easily accessible
farming land to the desert, thus creating or exacerbating food insecurity and loss of livelihoods for thousands.
Rivers are polluted at industrial scale killing fish and other aquatic life culminating in a total collapse of livelihood.

The securitization of climate change and

resource induced conflict is in tandem with
Under the combined effect of state
contemporary perspectives of security which
differs from the state-centric and militaristic fragility, conflict, drought and floods,
orientation. The rate of political instability and land and water bodies are
socio-economic development in the Sahel
region is not unconnected to climate change
deteriorating and losing its fertility and
and it impact on resource availability. The fish supplies
political economy of resource
allocation/ownership vis-à-vis the dwindling
availability of resource has always been a stimulant for conflict. Conflict over Land Resources - Land degradation
is a prominent feature of the Sahel, hence conflict over arable land resource remains a key area of climate change
induced security challenge. These conflicts are usually incremental then degenerate into violent armed conflict as
an adaptive strategic particularly from violent non-state actors. Over the years, the inability of states within the
Sahel to manage climate change and resource induced conflicts has led to the emergence and increase in the rate
of violent non-state actors who have become serious security threats.

Places affected the most in West Africa include Mopti and Gao in
Mali, the Tillabéri and Tahoua regions in Niger, the Eastern region
of Burkina Faso, the Northwest and Northcentral regions of
Nigeria, and Sila and Ouaddai provinces of Chad. Though there
exist different climatic and environmental conditions in Nigeria,
climate change has further recalibrated the variations of climate
in Nigeria particularly between the southern and northern parts
of the country thereby giving room for conflict.

© Climatecentral.org

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© Getty Image

Land is a major resource and the size of Nigeria notwithstanding; the use and availability of arable land has been
a source of conflict. Conflicts over scarce arable land resources in the region continues to put pressure on Nigeria
as it propels forced or conflict induced migration in all directions. Despite the abundance of arable land, food
insecurity in most part of the rural areas of Nigeria has been exacerbated by violent conflicts between farmers and
pastoralists, thereby disrupting the livelihood of millions of families particularly in Adamawa, Borno, Benue,
Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Nasarawa, Niger, Plateau, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe and Zamfara states among others. The
obvious reality in Nigerian in relation to food insecurity can be better appreciated from the fact that farms and
farming communities have increasingly become unsafe hence the phobia for going to farms. There are several
incidences in Benue state, Kaduna state, Zamfara state and others states in Nigeria where farmers are killed in the
farms and farming communities raided. This explains the rate of food inflation in Nigeria.

The importance of water for both human and agricultural activities cannot be overemphasised for obvious reasons
bearing in mind that water is not just a basic necessity for man but also a sine-qua non both crop and livestock
production. In addition to this is the issue of energy crisis in Nigeria. The direct physical impacts of climate change,
such as increased frequency and severity of storms, heat waves, and droughts are likely to impact energy security
in a number of ways. Water scarcity will diminish hydro-electrical generation capacity. Electricity generation in

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Nigeria has always been dependent on water. What this portends in that climate change in and its impact on
water will continue to affect the level of electricity generation in Nigeria since Nigeria is yet to fully key into
alternative sources of energy. The epileptic nature of power supply in Nigeria has affected a lot of businesses and
has further created unemployment among youths thereby promoting idleness and insecurity.

The impact of climate change in the Sahel has led to the incremental shrinking and drying up of the Lake Chad
thereby given room for further contestations over the little available water. Induced water scarcity in some states
of the Sahel is increasing conflicts over water as the drying-up of Lake Chad is a direct attack on the livelihood of
over 17million people depending on it for survival. Clash between Shuwa Arabs in Chadian vs Fulani pastoralists
in Nigeria is a case in point. Water scarcity has triggered regular clashes between ranchers and fishers in Logone
and Chari, Cameroon. Conflicts over drying watering holes in the patchy landscape that defines a large percentage
of the northern region has increased significantly, thereby increasing the percentage of those already affected
negatively by human insecurity. Declining fish populations partly attributed to climate change, rising demand for
seafood, pollution and heavy illegal fishing are increasing the risk that conflict over fisheries resources will
undermine stability and peace.

The drying-up of lake Chad vis-à-vis the threats posed by the Sahara Desert, heavy dependence on rainfall for
agricultural production, Unsustainable agricultural practices, ineffective state policies on agriculture, sand mining,
loss of biodiversity, destruction of wetlands, energy poverty, livelihood disruptions due to conflicts, banditry and
insurgency all serve to propel rural-urban migration that is induced by population and state neglect. The youth
constitute a major component of Nigeria’s population and the failure of the state to ensure that they are gainfully
engage has led to increase in migration. The country and the region are experiencing a huge demographic shift
of migration from the state-neglected rural areas to the unplanned urban areas, in search for greater opportunities
for livelihoods. Migrations like this depletes the rural workforce; reduce agricultural produce while burgeoning the
population in towns and cities that already suffer lack or inadequate infrastructure and public services, leaving
women and children (including the elderly and persons with disability) more vulnerable to climate change impact.

© MrGeogWagg

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Conclusion

© Nicole Prokoph

There abound series of studies and contending perspectives on the impact of and nexus between climate change
and security and whether or not climate change is a driver of and multiplier of conflict. It is therefore important
to note that there seems to be a high degree of consensus amongst security policy experts and many non-
governmental organizations that climate change as a threat multiplier in conflict situations.

There is no doubt that climate change is an obvious existential phenomenon/reality that the global system is
grappling with. The impact of climate change and its implications as threat multiplier is manifested in both in the
northern and southern hemisphere in various ways and dimensions. However, the degree of impact varies based
on the peculiarities of each continent and the degree of adaptive and mitigating strategies and mechanisms that
have been put in place. Effects of climate change and its potential drivers have brought about devastating impacts
with very dire consequences on human security and national development. Disappearing fish stock, loss of
biodiversity and ecosystem services, deepening poverty, dwindling fresh water supply, increasing burden of
diseases, unemployment, infrastructure destruction, and resource constraints, crop failure and low agricultural
yield lead to food insecurity just as means of livelihood are lost and unemployment rises. Climate change further
deepens the inequality gap between men and women as more women are left to fend for the family even as
fending becomes even more difficult.

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Furthermore, by depleting forests reserves and destroying the wetlands, we lose access to vital ecosystem services
that nature renders, food, medicines, and carbon sinking. From a perspective that sought to deal with the threats
posed by climate change, the Nigerian National Security Strategy (NSS), which was launched in 2019 recognized
forests as critical national assets, as well as forest conservation as a strategic necessity. Investing human resources
to the Great Green Wall initiative would be great way to push back the expanding desert currently affecting Burkina
Faso, Chad, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, and Sudan.

The response of state actors and non-state actors is a necessary requirement for climate change adaptation. There
is no doubt that state actors alone cannot address effectively the challenge posed by climate change. The Nigerian
state has established several institutional frameworks and designed series of policies to mitigate climate change
and its impact on human security. Addressing climate is addressing security threats. It is therefore germane for
states to address the precipitating factors of climate change. Recharging of the Lake Chad remains a key
component to halting the gains of climate induced security threats “…with inter basin water transfer, farming,
fishing, animal husbandry would resume and curtail irregular migration of youths…” said President Muhammadu
Buhari. This should be beefed up with a robust National and Regional Drought Plan, this will go a long way to
complement the land restoration push currently being carried out by the agencies involved.

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Recommendations

Haven interrogated the nexus between climate change as both a security threat and threat multiplier;
this policy brief puts forward the following strategic recommendations for both Nigeria, regional bodies
and states within the Sahel region:

1. Address the remote and immediate stakeholders in various sectors of the

precipitating factors of insecurity across economy.
the country including terrorism and
5. Climate proof the economy through
banditry, Boko Haram; kidnapping, and
massive investment in climate-resilient
violent crimes veiled as political
infrastructure in roads, energy, health,
agitations.
and manufacturing.
2. There is need for interfaith, inter-ethnic
6. Ensure that climate policies are
and community dialogue as a way of
effectively and efficiently implemented
addressing resource induced conflict
especially the farmer-herders conflict in 7. There is need to invest in capacity

Nigeria building, research and development

(R&D) that are climate change related
3. Promote youth employment by diversify
the Nigerian economy and investing in 8. There is an urgent need for climate

climate-smart agriculture change education, mitigating and

adaptive strategies while also taking
4. Government should strengthen
into cognizance the role of gender
institutions that are saddled with the
responsibility of weather forecasting, 9. Nigeria and Africa should up the tempo

climate modelling, early warning in promoting environmental security

systems and ensure access to accurate, while also demanding climate justice at

timely, and effective climate information the global level

services delivery to farmers and other

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Regional Bodies
10. Economic Community of West Africa States 12. Partner with Universities, Research
(ECOWAS) and Economic Community of Institutions and Think Tanks to generated
Central African States (ECCAS) should knowledge and ideas as well as innovate
prioritise commitment to preserving and ways or mechanisms for mitigating the
restoring their forests. These forests play an impact of climate change in the regions
important role in biodiversity conservation
13. ECOWAS and ECCAS should deepen
and millions depend on the free services
partnership to strengthen the capacity of
these forests provide
regional institutions and frameworks, Lake
11. ECOWAS and ECCAS should support local Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) and
initiatives aimed at mitigating climate Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJT) to
change through coordination of policies, respond to transboundary water resources
building partnerships, resource challenges (shrinkage of Lake Chad) and
mobilization, and promotion of national transborder criminality such as terrorism
ownership for projects implemented and organised crimes.

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Sahelian States
14. Develop and properly resource national climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies,
prioritising a national “re-greening” initiative

15. Strengthen the capacity of traditional structures and authorities on early warning, mediation
and alternative dispute resolutions, conflict management, and peace messaging

16. Promote best practices in agriculture and pastoralism such as improved irrigation efficiency,
use of adaptive crops and ranching

17. National efforts and strategies on peacebuilding must be redefined to prioritise mainstreaming
climate change impact

18. Targeted investments on youth in the area of education, vocational training, and social
protection system to offer them alternatives to livelihood systems that are negatively impacted
by climate change

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