Name sadiq khan
Rig 1818
USA Strategic Interest in Afghanistan, India’s Strategic
Interests in Afghanistan after the US Withdrawal: Challenges
for Pakistan. Global Strategic & Security Studies Review,
VIII(II), 00–00. https://doi.org/10.31703/gsssr.2024(VIII-II).04
USA Strategic Interest in
Afghanistan, India’s Strategic
Interests in Afghanistan after the
US Withdrawal: Challenges for
Pakistan
Abstract
The United States invaded Afghanistan in 2001 in response to the 9/11
attacks. The invasion had both counterterrorism objectives and broader
geopolitical goals. Afghanistan's strategic location near Central Asia,
Iran, China, and Pakistan made it a critical focus of U.S. foreign policy.
However, after two decades of military presence, the U.S. withdrew,
leaving behind complex consequences. India, aiming to contain Pakistan
and expand its regional influence, has developed strong diplomatic and
economic ties with Afghanistan. India’s strategy has focused on soft
power tools such as development aid, infrastructure investment, and
regional connectivity. After the U.S. withdrawal, Pakistan faces serious
challenges, including terrorism, economic insecurity, and a two-front
security threat. This research investigates the strategic interests of the
U.S. and India in Afghanistan and the challenges Pakistan is now
confronting.
Key Words: Afghanistan, USA, India, Strategic Interests, Pakistan,
Terrorism, Border Security, Economic Crisis, Chabahar Port, TTP, Soft
Power.
Geostrategic Importance of Afghanistan
Afghanistan has always held immense geostrategic value due to its
location at the crossroads of Central and South Asia. After 9/11, it
became the focal point of the global war on terror. The U.S. invasion in
2001 had two main motivations: to punish Al-Qaeda and the Taliban for
the attacks on American soil, and to ensure Afghanistan would never
again become a safe haven for terrorism. However, strategic analysts
believe the U.S. also sought long-term control of a region rich in energy
resources and located near geopolitical rivals like Iran, Russia, China,
and Pakistan.
According to various studies (Joshua, 2022; Raj, 2022), the U.S. used
Afghanistan as a base to monitor nuclear programs in Pakistan and
movements of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The war continued for
twenty years, during which the U.S. suffered more than 2,400 military
fatalities and spent over $2.26 trillion. Despite building a central
government in Kabul, American efforts failed to establish lasting peace or
stability, leaving a legacy of destruction and power vacuum.
Scope and Organization of Research
This research focuses on examining the post-9/11 strategic involvement
of the U.S. in Afghanistan, India’s growing influence in the country after
the U.S. withdrawal, and the emerging security and economic challenges
faced by Pakistan. Special emphasis has been placed on:
● The reality and outcomes of U.S. military engagement in
Afghanistan
● India’s evolving strategic interests and tactics post-U.S. withdrawal
● Pakistan’s internal and external challenges due to Afghanistan’s
instability
The research is based on content analysis, historical evaluation, and
current data. It applies a descriptive and analytical methodology to
interpret power competition, soft power diplomacy, and Pakistan’s
security predicament using Social Identity Theory (Stets & Burke, 2000)
and Structural Realism.
India’s Role in Post-U.S. Afghanistan: Strategic
Penetration
Following the fall of the Taliban in 2001, India rapidly increased its
engagement with Afghanistan. Its strategy focused on economic and
humanitarian development to win public goodwill and counter Pakistani
influence. India pledged over $3 billion for schools, hospitals, roads, and
energy projects. This development-based soft power created trust among
Afghans and strengthened India’s presence.
India’s efforts were not limited to aid. It also developed regional
connectivity, especially through the Iranian port of Chabahar. By
bypassing Pakistan’s Gwadar and Karachi ports, India decreased Afghan
dependency on Pakistani routes and increased its strategic depth. India
also provided scholarships to Afghan students and became the
fifth-largest donor to Afghanistan.
Despite the Taliban takeover, Indian interests remain intact. However,
New Delhi fears its decades-long investment might be lost. Many experts
believe India must engage pragmatically with the Taliban to secure its
projects and regional standing.
External Power Play and Geopolitical Stakes
U.S. withdrawal in 2021 created a vacuum filled by regional players,
primarily India and Pakistan. The Doha Agreement between the U.S. and
the Taliban in 2020 outlined troop withdrawal and Taliban commitments to
prevent terrorism. However, Taliban continued their violence, indicating
ambitions for full control rather than shared governance.
India’s cautious approach toward the Taliban shifted gradually. It now
advocates inclusive government in Afghanistan through forums like SCO.
Regional alliances including Indo-Iran and Indo-US partnerships focus on
limiting Chinese and Pakistani influence in the region. India’s soft power
is now complemented by diplomatic pressure to maintain regional
stability without boots on the ground.
Emerging Strategic Challenges for Pakistan
Pakistan shares over 2,600 km of border with Afghanistan, making it the
most vulnerable to instability in Kabul. Historically, Pakistan supported
the Taliban hoping for a friendly government. However, the return of
Taliban did not yield the expected strategic benefits. Instead, Pakistan is
now facing:
● An increase in cross-border terrorist attacks
● A stronger Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) emboldened by Taliban
support
● Strained diplomatic relations due to Taliban’s passive stance on
security cooperation
The porous border allows militants, smugglers, and unregulated
movement of arms into Pakistan. The Taliban have not fulfilled Pakistan’s
expectations of peace and cooperation.
Economic and Food Security Impacts
After Taliban’s rise, Afghanistan plunged into economic crisis. Food
shortages led to smuggling of flour, wheat, and sugar from Pakistan. This
triggered inflation in Pakistan, raising prices of basic commodities.
Pakistan’s economy, already hit by inflation and currency devaluation,
now bears the additional burden of resource scarcity.
With over 1.4 million Afghan refugees already in Pakistan, a
humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan could cause another refugee influx.
Hosting refugees requires funds, shelter, education, and jobs, which
Pakistan cannot afford under its current economic conditions.
Terrorism and Militancy Spillover
Groups like TTP and IS-K are re-emerging, using Afghan soil for
launching attacks into Pakistan. Taliban’s inaction and refusal to control
these groups worsens Pakistan’s security. Border areas such as
Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have witnessed increased
violence.
While Pakistan expected ideological and operational alignment with the
Taliban, it is instead facing an emboldened TTP and deteriorating law
and order along its western frontier.
Pakistan’s Two-Front Security Dilemma
Pakistan has long dealt with security threats from India on its eastern
border. Now, with Afghanistan unstable and militants operating freely
from across the western border, Pakistan faces a “two-front dilemma.”
Internal insurgency, cross-border terrorism, and hostile neighbors on both
sides create an unprecedented national security crisis.
Baluchistan, already under internal unrest, has become a hotspot for
externally supported militancy. Arms, ideology, and fighters are flowing
from Afghanistan, aggravating the situation.
Socio-Political Implications for Pakistan
The Taliban’s return and the associated instability have political and
social consequences in Pakistan. Ethnic Pashtun areas feel alienated,
and the growing radicalization fuels sectarian tensions. Militancy affects
daily life, education, tourism, and foreign investment.
The ideological divide between hardliners and progressives within
Pakistan grows deeper. Refugees from Afghanistan contribute to urban
stress in cities like Peshawar and Quetta, straining social cohesion and
governance.
A Suggested Way Forward
In light of the above analysis, the following measures are recommended:
a. Strategic Diplomacy with Taliban
Pakistan must engage the Taliban through firm diplomatic channels and
regional forums to push for action against the TTP and promote border
regulation.
b. Strengthening Border Security
Fencing must be completed, and surveillance improved. Advanced
border control technologies and paramilitary forces need to be
strengthened.
c. Economic Stabilization and Regulation
Pakistan must crack down on smuggling to prevent economic leakage.
Coordination with Afghanistan on controlled trade can help both
economies.
d. Regional Cooperation through SAARC & SCO
Pakistan should use multilateral forums to create consensus on
Afghanistan's future and share the refugee burden.
e. Counter-Terrorism Strategy
Revive the National Action Plan and build local community resilience
against extremism. Intelligence sharing with regional allies can help preempt
attacks.
References
● Al-Mukhtar, A. (2017). US-Afghanistan Military Engagement.
● Alterman, J. B., & Mohan, C. R. (2022). India’s Middle East
Strategy. CSIS.
● Bhatnagar, S. & John, L. (2013). Chabahar and India's Regional
Goals. ORF.
● Business Standard. (2018). India's Reconstruction in Afghanistan.
● Joshua, P. (2022). Afghanistan and US Exit Policy.
● Raj, S. (2022). Strategic Depth and Terrorism Post-9/11.
● Sangar, K. (2016). Afghanistan’s Geo-Strategic Importance.
● Stets, J. E., & Burke, P. J. (2000). Social Identity Theory. Social
Psychology Quarterly.
● Yousif, M. & Kakar, H. (2022). South Asia Security Landscape.
Research Scholar – Strategic Studies
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