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Challenges To Afghanistan, Even After Three Years of US Withdrawal

The document discusses the ongoing challenges faced by Afghanistan three years after the U.S. withdrawal, focusing on the resurgence of the Taliban and the resulting humanitarian crisis, decline in human rights, and regional instability. It employs Social Institutional Theory to analyze the Taliban's governance and the complexities of Afghanistan's political, economic, and social landscape. The study aims to inform policymaking and humanitarian efforts while providing recommendations for the peace process in Afghanistan.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
17 views11 pages

Challenges To Afghanistan, Even After Three Years of US Withdrawal

The document discusses the ongoing challenges faced by Afghanistan three years after the U.S. withdrawal, focusing on the resurgence of the Taliban and the resulting humanitarian crisis, decline in human rights, and regional instability. It employs Social Institutional Theory to analyze the Taliban's governance and the complexities of Afghanistan's political, economic, and social landscape. The study aims to inform policymaking and humanitarian efforts while providing recommendations for the peace process in Afghanistan.

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Challenges to Afghanistan, Even After Three Years of US Withdrawal

Article in Social Science Review Archives · March 2025


DOI: 10.70670/sra.v3i1.543

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ISSN Online: 3006-4708
SOCIAL SCIENCE REVIEW ARCHIVES ISSN Print: 3006-4694
https://policyjournalofms.com

Challenges to Afghanistan, Even After Three Years of US Withdrawal

Asim Abbas1, Dr. Jamshed Baloch2, Dr. Humera Hakro3


1
PhD Scholar, Department of Political Science, University of Sindh, Jamshoro
asimabbasbangash6@gmail.com
2
Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Sindh, Jamshoro
3
Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, University of Sindh, Jamshoro

DOI: https://doi.org/10.70670/sra.v3i1.543
Abstract
Afghanistan has suffered war for almost 40 long years. The political dynamics once changed after
9/11 again changed on 15 August 2021 with the fall of Kabul and the establishment of the Islamic
Emirates of Afghanistan. The world saw a significant shift in U.S. Afghan policy, which also
changed South Asia's and Central Asia's regional dynamics. Almost three years have passed since
the fall of Kabul, and still, Afghanistan and Afghan people are suffering. This qualitative study,
grounded in Social Institutional Theory, investigates Afghanistan's intricate challenges three years
post-US withdrawal. The study employs analytical and critical methods to evaluate the enduring
impacts of the withdrawal on the country's political, economic, and social spheres. The primary
themes analysed include the resurgence of the Taliban, the humanitarian crisis, the decline of
human rights, and the consequences for regional stability. The study underscores the complex
interplay between local factors and global influences, emphasising the need for a comprehensive
and nuanced understanding of Afghanistan's evolving trajectory. This research aims to clarify
persistent challenges to improve informed policymaking and humanitarian efforts that reduce
suffering and foster sustainable peace in Afghanistan. Furthermore, based on this research, a few
recommendations for the peace process in Afghanistan have also been suggested.

Keywords: Afghanistan, Social Institutional Theory, Human Rights, Women Rights, Challenges,
Legitimacy, Humanitarian Crises

Introduction
Afghanistan remained the longest war theatre in the world's history. However, Afghanistan's
political dynamics along ground realities changed after 9/11. After Loya Jirga of Afghanistan
approved the Afghanistan constitution in 2004 and defined the word 'Afghan' for the first time,
which was previously used for the Pashtun ethnic majority of Afghanistan and tried to reduce the
ethnic tension across Afghanistan by including all the ethnic minorities of Afghanistan in under
the definition of the term 'Afghan' (Rubin, 2004). This gave hope to the people of Afghanistan to
see a new start in peace and prosperity. Afghans' dream for peace was traumatised by the
resurgence of Taliban guerrilla’s comeback, and soon, the Taliban were able to create a parallel
system of governance by collecting tax and delivering swift justice through their Qazi (Judge).
This helped the Taliban establish their legitimacy across Afghanistan slowly and steadily. Even

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2350
the regional players accepted them and started negotiations with them. The Taliban opened their
political office in Doha, Qatar, in 2013 and projected it as the embassy of their Government in
exile. (Telegraph, 2013). The Government of Afghanistan launched four separate reconciliation
processes with the help of the USA and allies of the Afghan Republic. Ashraf Ghani, as the newly
elected president of Afghanistan, terminated all reconciliatory processes in 2016, but in 2018, he
showed an inclination for direct peace talks between Taliban Clerics, the USA, and the Afghan
Government under pressure from the USA. By 2018, the Ghani administration was trying to start
reconciliatory efforts. However, Taliban clerics were not ready for it as, according to their point
of view, the Afghan democratic Government led by President Ghani was not legitimate. Pakistan,
along with all the regional powers, tried to bring peace to Afghanistan, but Pakistan, along with
all other regional and international powers, remained unsuccessful in this. The Taliban started
direct peace talks with the USA at Doha, Qatar, in 2018, which were piloted by the U.S. Special
Afghan representative Zalmye Khalilzad, Who assisted as a mediator of the Bonn Agreement and
Mullah Abdul Ghani Barader from Taliban (Abbas, 2023). On 29 February 2020, a peace deal
was signed between the USA and Taliban leadership in Doha, Qatar. The U.S. soldiers and allied
troops left Afghanistan and the Afghan Government on 1 September 2021 without any respite or
security measures for the Afghan democratic Government or Afghans. The Afghan democratic
government was unable to stand against the Taliban forces, and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani
escaped from Kabul on a private Helicopter on 15 August 2021. The Taliban forces were waiting
at the gates of Kabul. President Ghani's departure provided the Taliban with a pretext to enter the
capital under the pretence of establishing order to avoid the escalating level of panic among the
masses.(Jamal & Maley, 2023) On 15 August 2021, Afghanistan saw a significant setback in the
shape of the fall of the democratic Government and the formation of the Islamic Emirates of
Afghanistan. Taliban announced their victory by announcing the culmination of almost 43 years
of continuous war. Afghan people have encountered continuous war for almost four long decades,
with approximately 20,000 to 40,000 killings per annum according to Afghanistan's Security
Challenges under the Taliban, according to Crisis Group Asia Report No 326 (Report No 326,
2022). Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) casualty data for 2023 shows
Afghanistan was maintaining its position in the top 15 most lethal conflict zones of the world
(ACLED, 2023). Afghanistan was nominated the least peaceful place in the world by the Global
Peace Index Report (GPI) of 2023 (Peace Index, 2023). The reports of the UN and other
international agencies are very glaring and gloomy about the Taliban Islamic Emirates of
Afghanistan's Human rights, especially Women's rights, as women are banned from education
after the primary, beauty parlours for women are banned. The media is facing extreme restrictions.
Several forced abductions and forced marriages of underage girls have been reported by
international media and NGOs. Poverty is at its highest level. Political parties have been banned
from all political activities.

Theoretical Framework
In this research paper, context analysis/examination of the political, military, societal, and
historical dimensions is necessary to understand the challenges and opportunities faced by
Afghanistan even three years after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghan soil. Considering
Afghanistan's situation, “Social Institutional Theory” (SIT) has been adopted as a theoretical
framework. It is important to understand the organisational paradigm of the Taliban for achieving
peace in Afghanistan. Therefore, SIT has been used to understand and explain the organisational
skeleton, working, and outcomes. The theory was introduced by Talcott Parsons in 1956, who
explained a "cultural-institutional" in that he explained that, as parts of a bigger social system
(society), organisations need to validate "basic acceptance of the more generalised values of the
superordinate system.” (Parsons, 1956). According to a few researchers, the institutions and
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organisations received emotional energy from involving their actions in the logic of self and ethical
social standards, which are epitomised by the movement (Hiatt, Sine, and Tolbert, 2009).

Research Methodology
This research is a qualitative study. Therefore, both analytical and critical approaches have been
employed. As a result, secondary sources have been used to study and evaluate facts, concepts,
and historical references.

Research Questions
1. What are the reasons behind the resurgence of the Taliban?
2. What challenges is the Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan facing?

The resurgence of the Taliban:


The events of 9/11 were a pivotal moment in Afghanistan's history. The United States initiated
"Operation Enduring Freedom," resulting in the dissolution of the Taliban government, following
the overthrow of the Taliban regime after Operation Enduring Freedom, an international
conference convened under the auspices of the United Nations in Bonn, Germany, where the
global world formalised an agreement with the Afghan warlords from Northern Afghanistan and
different fictions across Afghanistan less Taliban. These warlords serve as ground forces in
reaction to the aerial assaults conducted by the USA and NATO (Rubin, 2013). Brig Rtd Bangash
asserts that the Bonn deal cornered the Taliban, leaving them with little alternative except to
retaliate and engage in combat (Abbas. A, 2021). Upon assuming the presidency, Karzai extended
a peace agreement to the Taliban, contingent upon their severance of relations with the Al Qaeda
network, cessation of all forms of violence, and acceptance of a political role in accordance with
the Afghan constitution. The Taliban leadership rejected it and thereafter escalated armed assaults
and violence (Najibullah, 2017). The Taliban established its political office in Doha, Qatar.
However, it was shut down within 24 hours in June 2013 owing to significant backlash from the
Afghan Government. This was the first Political move from Taliban leadership since their
Government was toppled after Operation Enduring Freedom. The Taliban never stopped fighting
and were able to establish their shadow rebel Government on the soil of Afghanistan. Throughout
the war, the Taliban capitalised on mistakes by the Western coalition and its Afghan partners to
recruit fighters. They harnessed widespread anger at human rights abuses, civilian deaths and
corruption to turn Afghans against the central Government and its foreign backers. As the
insurgents extended their territorial dominion, they established clandestine administrations in the
provinces that resolved local conflicts, imposed taxes, delivered public services, and created a
foundation for recruiting. By the onset of the Taliban's final onslaught, the morale of security
officers and local officials had eroded to such an extent that the rebels were able to subdue them
individually and seize the country's largest cities, frequently without any resistance (Wall Street
Journal, 2021). According to an Afghan Journalist, X, who spoke to the researcher during his
interview for the researcher's PhD thesis.
"The Doha agreement was a turning point for the Afghan Government, Afghan people and Afghan
forces. This agreement degraded the Afghan Government in the eyes of afghans as the
Government was not part of the negotiations nor the treaty. Not only this but brought the Taliban
status equal to the Government which demoralised the Afghan forces to an extent that they were
not able to give a single fight to the Taliban commanders on road to Kabul".

Afghan Taliban, Through The Practice of Social Institutional Theory (Sit)


The SIT offers a framework to comprehend the Taliban's rise, doggedness, and operation as a
political and religious ideological faction rooted in Afghan society. According to Berger &
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Volume: 3, No: 1 January-March, 2025
2352
Luckmann's SIT, hostilities, methodical needs, and social gaps have given rise to institutions
(Berger & Luckmann, 1966). The civil war, governance vacuum, absence of a central Government
along with social cohesion, and competing warlords gave birth to the Taliban Movement in the
early 90s. The Taliban institutionalised a harsh version of Sharia law as a uniting social norm,
presenting themselves as a steadying force in a war-torn society (Rashid, 2010). They used
Deobandi Islamic teachings as their ideological foundation as a legitimising skeleton to shape a
shared identity and moral order. This reverberates with the notion of institutional isomorphism,
wherein social movements embrace and solidify organisations that resound with the communal
beliefs of their environment (DiMaggio & Powell, 1983). Taliban's hierarchical organisation and
operational framework is based on the traditional Afghan tribal and Islamic norms. The Taliban
leadership head is called Amir al-Mu’minin (Commander of the Faithful), followed by a council
(Shura) comprising military, judicial, and political experts from the leadership. This resonates with
the Pashtun tribal system, where authority and consensus are mediated through tribal elders
(mashran) and religious scholars (ulama), further implanting the faction within native institutional
logic (Barfield, 2010). SIT highlights the significance of customs and ethics in nourishing
institutions over time. The Taliban institutionalised themselves by conveying justice, deciding
disputes, and providing rudimentary services in neglected areas by the Afghan Government or
international forces (Giustozzi, 2009). The group’s institutional framework functions locally and
globally. At local levels, it assimilates into Afghan socio-political customs, counting on tribal
loyalties and Islamic Sharia Law. Globally, it appeals to international Islamic movements and
dogmas, aligning itself with broader narratives of Muslim confrontation with alleged Western
domination (Dorronsoro, 2012). Taliban faces different challenges in institutionalising governance
after its return to Government in 2021. The evolution from an insurrection to a governing
institution does require shifts in its ideological and functioning skeleton. The SIT proposes that
such alterations are vital for institutional existence but may also lead to inner conflicts as traditional
customs are modified to meet new challenges (North, 1990).

Challenges to Afghanistan
The Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan has faced many challenges since its return to power in
2021, as it has already been discussed that shifts in ideological and operational frameworks for
any organization are necessary to meet the new challenges posed.
1. Legitimacy and Recognition:
The biggest challenge faced by Taliban leadership is the challenge of legitimacy and
recognition by the world. Although the Taliban came into power after the peace deal with
the U.S. but still after three years of U.S. withdrawal and the collapse of the Afghan
Democratic Government, the U.S. and the world are reluctant to recognise the Taliban
Government. This isolation hinders its ability to engage in international cooperation, secure
economic aid, and access global financial systems (Giustozzi, 2023). Although many
countries have accepted their diplomats and diplomatic missions, still International and
regional communities are not ready to recognise the Taliban due to the following reasons;
a) It is not a legitimate Government to be in power through force without the support of
the people, as in democracy.
b) Taliban are also not considered legitimate due to rigid attitudes towards other sects
and religions.
c) One more hurdle is the backing of Al Qaeda Leadership. Al Qaeda leader AL
Zawahiri's presence (killed in a U.S. drone attack) in Kabul is a question mark on the
US-Taliban peace deal.

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Volume: 3, No: 1 January-March, 2025
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d) IEA is also not following the International Women's Rights Code, which denies
women the right to education, jobs, special laws, and even the right to speak in public
and travel.
e) Not following the international code of conduct as per UN-passed rules and
regulations.

2. Woman Rights:
Since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, human rights violations against women and girls
have mounted despite initial promises that women would be allowed to exercise their rights within
Sharia law—including the right to work and to study. The Taliban has systematically excluded
women and girls from public life. Women hold no cabinet positions in the de facto administration.
The Ministry of Women's Affairs had also been abolished, effectively eliminating women’s right
to political participation. Girls are banned from attending school past the sixth grade. This affects
over 1.1 million girls in Afghanistan. Women are completely barred from working outside the
home even to park if they cannot travel without male guardians (Amnesty International-2023).
According to UN Women Executive Director Sima Bahous, decades of progress on gender
equality and women’s rights have been wiped out in mere months (Asiapacefic-2023). Taliban
Courts had stopped taking cases that relate to divorce, separation or domestic violence. The UN
Special Rapporteur on the human rights condition in Afghanistan has considered the state as an
"unprecedented deterioration of women's rights," with many observers labeling it "gender
apartheid" (Barr, 2024).

3. Ethno-linguistic and Sectarian issues:


Afghanistan is home to a diverse population that includes Pashun, Tajik, Hazara, Uzbek, Turkmen,
Nuristani, Aymaq, Kyrgyz, Qizilbash, Gujar, and many more ethnic groups (Rubin-2004). In near
past the violence has been fanned by the frustrations of non-Pashtun residents of northern
Afghanistan (Shahrani, 2018). While the Afghan Government points the finger at outside forces,
the fact remains that the country's ethno-linguistic divide is a major contributor to the violence
(Sadar, 2019). Thousands of Hazaras were massacred by the Taliban in the city of Mazzr e Sharif
in August 1998 during the first regime of the Emirates of Afghanistan (Human Rights Watch -
1998). According to the Hazara, during the Taliban conquest of central and northern Afghanistan,
the Taliban beheaded fifteen thousand Hazara people (Caroll-2002). On the other side, mass graves
of Taliban were recovered, which can hold 1000 bodies at Dasht e Leili desert killed by General
Rasheed Dostam Militia after the U.S. attack (Jalalzai-2003). From 2016 till date, hundreds of
Hzaras have been targeted at different times and places, and ISIS-K has claimed responsibility.
After the fall of Kabul in 2021, the Taliban has confronted substantial challenges in dealing with
these dissections, as their religious ideology and governance model predominantly replicate the
Pashtun-dominated Sunni perception. After recapturing the power, the Taliban claimed that they
would form an all-encompassing government. However, their interim government ranks remain
dominated by Pashtun leaders, sidelining another ethnic group, especially the Hazara ethnic
faction. This rise in ethnic grievances against the Taliban government and resistance movements
such as the National Resistance Front (NRF) have appeared, challenging Taliban power
(Giustozzi, 2022).

4. Security Challenge to the Taliban


The Taliban government in Afghanistan faces a multitude of security challenges that threaten its
stability and ability to govern effectively. These challenges can be categorised as both internal and
external.

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Volume: 3, No: 1 January-March, 2025
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a. Internal Challenges:
Internal divisions and power struggles within the Taliban threaten its cohesion and long-term
control (UNICRI, 2023). The Taliban is not a monolithic entity. Factions and internal power
struggles can undermine stability and hinder effective governance (Giustozzi, 2023). This
fragmentation could lead to instability and hinder the Government's ability to address other
security threats and governance. Various armed opposition groups, including the National
Resistance Front (NRF), continue to challenge the Taliban's authority (Crisis Group, 2022). These
groups conduct attacks and aim to undermine the Taliban's control, particularly in certain regions.

b. External Challenges:

Afghanistan remains a haven for regional and global terrorist organisations, including al-Qaeda
and the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) (UNICRI, 2023). These groups pose a threat not
only to Afghanistan but also to regional stability and international security. The ISKP poses a
significant security threat, launching attacks against both the Taliban and civilians (Jones & Jalali,
2023). The Taliban's historical links to and current tolerance of international terrorist groups raise
concerns among neighbouring countries and the international community (UNICRI, 2023). This
undermines the Taliban's efforts to gain international recognition and support.

5. Continued Violence, Extrajudicial Killings and Human Rights:

Despite a reduction in large-scale fighting, Afghanistan continues to experience violence and


attacks, particularly in urban areas(Cfr, 2024). These attacks, often perpetrated by ISKP, target
civilians, government officials, and foreign interests, highlighting the ongoing security threats.
Reports indicate that Taliban elements have carried out extrajudicial killings and human rights
abuses, further complicating the security situation and raising concerns about the Taliban's
commitment to upholding human rights(USIP) and further complicating international
engagement. The Taliban have imposed strict controls on media and freedom of expression,
limiting access to information and silencing critical voices. Since 15 August 2021, at least 141
journalists have been arrested or detained (Reporters Without Borders, 2024.

6. Humanitarian and Economic Crises:


Afghanistan's economy is in a state of crisis. Sanctions, the freezing of foreign assets, and the
withdrawal of international aid have led to a severe economic downturn, widespread poverty, and
food insecurity (World Bank, 2023). Millions of Afghans face acute humanitarian needs, including
food shortages, displacement, and lack of access to essential services. (United Nations Office for
the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 2023). Afghanistan is vulnerable to natural disasters,
including droughts and earthquakes, which exacerbate existing challenges and further strain
resources.

7. Governance and Institutional Challenges:

The Taliban government is dominated by Pashtuns, with limited representation from other ethnic
groups. This lack of inclusivity may fuel resentment and instability. On the other hand, because of
this issue, Afghanistan's institutions remain fragile and lack capacity. Corruption and a lack of
accountability further undermine effective governance. (Transparency International, 2023). Due
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Volume: 3, No: 1 January-March, 2025
2355
to this, many Afghans lack access to essential services, including healthcare, education, and clean
water. This poses significant challenges to human development and well-being.

Recommendations
a) Regional and international players must cease their proxy involvement since a destabilised
Afghanistan is detrimental to all players.
b) International and regional powers should endeavour to persuade the Taliban leadership to
initiate peace negotiations with other Afghan factions within their sphere of influence to
enhance the efficacy of peace efforts.
c) Afghan civil society, at all levels, must collaborate to reconcile the divide between the
Taliban and Afghans, therefore fortifying the national fabric and fostering enduring peace.
d) The challenges faced by contemporary Afghan society encompass the unequal allocation
of national resources influenced by sectarian, ethnic, and linguistic prejudices, alongside
issues of corruption and nepotism. The Taliban government must develop strategies to
address and eliminate these societal issues.
e) The Taliban regime must devise methods to ensure Afghan women receive their
fundamental right to education and access to legal resources.
f) International and regional community to should help Taliban government to overcome the
economic and humanitarian crises.
g) Keeping in view Afghanistan's multi-ethnic, multi-linguistic, and multi-sectarian society a
power-sharing formula that is acceptable to all must be workout to give representation in
governance to all ethnic factions.
h) Keeping in view Afghanistan's multi-ethnic, multi-linguistic, and multi-sectarian society,
there is a need to review the form of Government that can support democracy under Islamic
law as working in many Islamic countries.
i) Mullahs, without any formal law education, may be replaced or educated about formal law
along with sharia Law specialists to provide speedy and less expansive justice as Afghan
people have lost their confidence owing to both sectors.
j) The IEA government should work to enhance bilateral connections with neighbouring
countries and international powers. Afghanistan must retain an impartial stance towards
any superpower or developing superpower among its regional neighbours.
k) UNO and the International Community must help Afghan people encounter poverty,
natural climate, recent floods and this winter season.

Conclusion
The 2021 withdrawal of U.S. soldiers from Afghanistan signified a pivotal moment in the Nation's
history, heralding a new epoch of uncertainty and difficulties. This qualitative study, based on
Social Institutional Theory, has explored the many ramifications of this departure, assessing its
effects on the political, economic, and social structure of Afghanistan. The rise of the Taliban has
resulted in significant repercussions, causing a profound deterioration of human rights, especially
for women and girls. The humanitarian situation has intensified, with millions confronting food
insecurity and relocation. The nation's economy is precarious and impeded by corruption,
insufficient investment, and persistent conflict. Furthermore, the withdrawal has destabilised the
region, affecting neighbouring countries and beyond. To tackle these difficulties, a thorough and
varied approach is necessary. International involvement is essential, although it must be adjusted
to prevent intensifying violence or worsening the humanitarian disaster. An emphasis on human
rights, especially women's rights, is vital. Economic development programs must focus on
employment generation and poverty alleviation. Moreover, regional collaboration is essential for
promoting stability and security. Despite the uncertainty surrounding Afghanistan's future, it is
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Volume: 3, No: 1 January-March, 2025
2356
essential to acknowledge the tenacity of the Afghan populace and their persistent aspiration for
peace and prosperity. By comprehending the intricacies of the present circumstances, governments
and humanitarian organisations can strive to establish a more stable and equitable Afghanistan.

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news/card/BFhE0BwSxGmXoRdPyaUL retrieved on 22 June 2024.

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World Bank. (April, 2023). Afghanistan Economic Monitor.
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0310012023/original/Afghanistan-Economic-Monitor-25-April-2023.pdf

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Volume: 3, No: 1 January-March, 2025
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