Net Zero Emissions and Global Carbon Budget

Dr. J. R. Bhatt, Adviser

Ministry of Environment , Forest and Climate Change

9th March 2022

 GLOBAL CLIMATE TREATIES
• UNFCCC (1992)
• Kyoto Protocol (1997)
• Paris Agreement (2015)

Gradual shift from emission reduction targets only for developed

countries , towards nationally determined , binding targets for all
countries .
IPCC : CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS
 WG-I Report to AR6 (IPCC)

Increase in global temperatures of 1.07 Deg. C since the pre-industrial

period, is proportional to the global cumulative emissions over this period

To limit increase in global temperature since the pre-industrial period, the

cumulative emissions must stay within a Global Carbon Budget

Global cumulative emissions determine the global temperature that will be

reached .
 Why Neutrality?
• Considering the huge climate change impacts as a result of cumulative
emissions, it is important to sequester as much carbon as emitted.
• Since climate change is global collective action problem, the response also
needs to be global but based on equity and CBDR-RC.
Carbon budget
• Cumulative amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions permitted over a
period of time to keep within a certain temperature.
• Amount left is 500 GtCO2 for limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees and
1350 GtCO2 for 2 degrees.
 50% Probability of 1.5 deg. C

Total Carbon Budget

2956
GtCO2
 50% Probability of 2 deg. C

3806
GtCO2
 But emissions are continually rising

Share of Global Cumulative Share of Global Cumulative

Population Share (% of Global
Emissions Emissions
Population
1850-1990 1991-2018
2018 % %
All Annex-I 18% 71% 46%
USA 4% 29% 18%
Canada 0.5% 2% 2%
Australia 0.3% 1% 1%
Japan 2% 3% 3%
Germany 1% 6% 3%
UK 1% 6% 2%
EU (28) 6% 25% 13%
Russian Fed 2% 7% 6%
All Non-Annex-I 82% 29% 54%
China 18% 6% 21%
Brazil 3% 1% 2%
South Africa 1% 1% 1%
India 18% 4% 5%
 OVERWHELMING DOMINATION OF DEVELOPED
COUNTRIES IN PAST EMISSIONS

Past Emissions: Cumulative Present Emissions: Cumulative Share of Global

Emissions 1850-1990 Emissions 1991-2018 Population

Share of Global Share of Global

[GtCO2eq] [GtCO2eq] (2018)
Emissions (%) Emissions (%)

All Annex-I 976 71% 500 46% 18%

All Non-
395 29% 584 54% 82%
Annex-I
Carbon
Debt/Credit for
Past Emissions
Based on Per Capita
Fair Share (2018
Basis)
The developed countries owe
India about 15 trillion USD
because of their excessive use of
the global carbon space.
 THE CONCEPT OF NET ZERO
• UNFCCC - Prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system.
• Paris Agreement – Balance between anthropogenic emissions by
sources and removals by sinks , in the second half of the century

IPCC SR 1.5 degrees report - Emissions to be reduced 45% below 2010

levels by 2030 and NET ZERO by 2050
 WHAT ACTIONS DOES NET ZERO ENTAIL?
• Mitigation of emissions – Energy , Transportation, Industry etc
• Absorption by Sinks – Forests ; Oceans
• Removals through Direct Air Capture ; CCUS

Objective : To prevent net addition to the stock of GHGs, beyond the

global carbon budget
 Current Year of reaching net zero for fair
Declared/Proposed year share of remaining carbon budget
Net-Zero of reaching net zero (linear reduction)

Targets Highly 1.5 deg. C 2 deg. C

InadequateNe
Net-Zero Trges Highly Inadequate
(50% Probability) (67% Probability)

USA 2050 2025 2032

t-ZeroNet-Zero Targets Canada 2050 2025 2033
Targets Highly Highly Australia None 2024 2031

Inadequate Japan 2050 2031 2046

Germany 2045 2030 2045
UK 2050 2035 2057
EU (28) 2050 2031 2047
Russian Fed None 2026 2036
China 2060 2031 2047
World Second half of century 2037 2062
 COP 26 – WHAT DID THE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DO?
• Refuse to acknowledge their historical responsibility for the current
climate crisis!! (by 2020 would reduce annual emissions only by ~ 10
percent below 1990 levels)
• Insufficient NDCs and net-zero commitments – continued cumulative
emissions far more than their fair share.
• US + EU = 94 + 54 GtCO2 – Out of 500 GtCO2 available for limiting to 1.5
degrees C warming. (China – 400 GtCO2 till net zero in 2060).
• Lot of promises – Yet to see little action in policy corresponding to their
responsibility (UNFCCC Synthesis Report on NDCs).
• Net-zero diverted attention from real and immediate action (echoed by
civil society and a significant section of scientists)
• But intensified efforts to push the burden on to developing countries.
 INDIA : FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE ACTIONS
• Achievement of SDGs
• Availability of reliable and affordable energy
• Responsive to the call of Science
• In light of national circumstances , equity and CBDR-RC

Government is implementing the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) through
National Missions that address climate change mitigation and adaptation across a range of
sectors. NAPCC is the overarching policy framework and comprises of national missions in
specific areas of solar energy, enhanced energy efficiency, water, agriculture, Himalayan
ecosystem, sustainable habitat, green India and strategic knowledge on climate
change. Three Missions on Transport, Health and Coastal are on the anvil.
 INDIA - Being a part of the solution..
There is no sector of our economy, where some initiative or the other is not happening for climate action. So, we
are fully committed to addressing Climate Change
• Decoupling growth from emissions. Reduction of emissions intensity of GDP by 24% below 2005 levels.
• Non-fossil installed capacity is more than 40% today. At COP 21, as part of its NDCs, India had committed to achieving
40% of its installed electricity capacity from non-fossil energy sources by 2030. We have achieved this target in
November 2021 itself nine years ahead of our promise to do so.
• The likely annual CO2 emission reductions on achieving 450 GW RE capacity (excluding large hydro) in 2030 would be
around 877 million tonnes of CO2.
• Clean coal technology initiative: Shutting down inefficient thermal units, 241 Units retired, new capacity addition
through supercritical units only.
• Shift from BSIV to BSVI for cleaner transportation; push for electric vehicles.
• Ministry of Railways has envisioned to be a 'Net Zero Carbon Emitter' by 2030. With this, total CO2 emissions reduction
by 2030 is estimated to be 60 million tons.
• UJALA: Largest LED programme of the world for energy savings. Total CO2 emissions reduction 40 Million tonnes per
year.
• Perform, Achieve and Trade scheme saved 60 million tonnes in Phase-II.
 INDIA - Being a part of the solution..
• Apart from resolutely addressing climate change domestically, for the world, India
has created and continue to nurture International Solar Alliance (ISA) and
Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI). We are also taking the lead
with Sweden in innovation for hard to abate sectors with a view to promoting
voluntary action for low carbon transition. So, when India speaks on climate
change, it does so from a position of strength and responsibility.
• India has been proactive in helping nations impacted by Climate Change. This is
evident from the recent launch of ‘Infrastructure for Resilient Island States (IRIS)’
by India, UK, Australia, Fiji, Jamaica and Mauritius at The World Leaders Summit
at COP26.
• The Prime Minister, at COP-26, launched the Green Grids Initiative—One Sun One
World One Grid (GGI-OSOWOG), the first international network of global
interconnected solar power grids, jointly with his UK counterpart Boris Johnson.
 India Further Intensified her Climate Actions
• At COP-26, the Hon’ble Prime Minister of India announced India's climate
action agenda, naming it as ‘panchamrit’ or five nectar elements that would
be India’s contribution to tackling the challenge of global warming. This
“Panchamrit” announced were the following:
• First– India will increase its non-fossil energy capacity to 500 GW by 2030.
• Second– India will meet 50 percent of its energy requirements from renewable energy
(non-fossil) by 2030.
• Third– India will reduce the total projected carbon emissions by one billion tonnes from
now onwards till 2030.
• Fourth– By 2030, India will reduce the carbon intensity of its economy by less than 45
percent.
• Fifth- By the year 2070, India will achieve the target of Net Zero.
• Inspired by our traditional ethos of living in harmony with the environment,
India has adopted low-carbon and climate-resilient development practices.
 CLOSURE OF COP26 – ASSERTING EQUITY
• Before the final session of the COP India called for phase out of all fossil
fuels. (See https://twitter.com/i/status/1460628604799397894 and
https://youtu.be/ru5FhNOINCs
• India had repeatedly asserted its need for coal as its fossil fuel resource
essential for development.
• Sun does not shine at night nor does the wind blow all the time!!
• Fossil fuels are essential for more renewables – development cannot
wait for batteries to become cheaper.
• Developed countries reaching net zero early – means phase out for all
fossil fuels.
• At closing plenary, India provided a studied and articulate response,
leveraging the China-US agreement language, emphasizing development,
especially poverty eradication and just transition (though could not
entirely correct the biased language)
• Post-COP26: Strong global support and understanding of India’s dilemma!!
 India’s Use of Fossil Fuels
Per Capita Total Coal
Fossil Fuel Consumption Natural Gas Oil
Consumption (tonnes per Consumption Consumption
(2018) capita) (CM per capita) (Mt per capita)
USA 1.91 2.59 2.37
Germany 2.62 1.12 1.14
Australia 4.52 1.84 1.96
UK 0.20 1.20 0.89
China 2.70 0.20 0.42
India 0.73 0.04 0.16
LOW CARBON TRANSITIONS : ECONOMY WIDE
• Energy
• Transportation
• Industry
• Agriculture, Forests and Land Use
• Waste management
The net zero transition requires all hands, on board .
 ROLE OF GOVERNMENT
• Enabling Policy and Regulatory Environment
• Facilitate R&D in clean technologies
• Encourage innovation

Union Budget 2022-23 – Clear focus on green transition towards

carbon neutral economy
 ROLE OF INDUSTRY
• Sectoral low carbon transition plans
• Enhanced ESG commitments
• Shift to clean technologies
• Investment in innovations
 INDIA : LONG TERM LOW GHG EMISSIONS
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
• Under Preparation
• To be submitted by COP27 , November 2022.
• Inputs from all stakeholders will be sought
 India and the Way Forward
• COP26 shows India the merits of a two-track approach – active engagement with climate
action at home, while insisting on international equity at the global level. Worked
effectively at COP26 and put forward a positive viewpoint.
• Equitable, inclusive growth at the national level is essential but not the subject of
international negotiations and cannot dictate our stand vis-à-vis international equity.
• Rational assessment of costs of mitigation without overplaying benefits of going “green”,
while striving to maximise the value of available carbon space.
• Greater attention to and investment in adaptation – keeping the positive aspect of the
”development as adaptation” approach that has been pursued.
• India’s share of the remaining carbon budget (at the minimum) is a strategic national
resource and care needs to be exercised in the domestic regulation that will be part of
Article 6 mechanisms. Our focus should be on benefits accruing to the agricultural sector
and the MSME in industry.
• Early formation of institutions, especially in laws, rules and procedures, and their
implementing bodies are in danger of clashing with the open-ended requirements of
development and rigidifying the forms of climate action, and must be avoided.
 ॐ द्यौः शान्तिरतिररक्षं शान्तिौः
पृन्िवी शान्तिरापौः शान्तिरोषधयौः शान्तिौः ।
- यजुवेद, ३६.१७ “वसध
ु ैव िुटुम्बिम ्”
- महर उऩननषद ६.७२
Unto Heaven be Peace, Unto the Sky and the Earth be Peace,
Peace be unto the Water, Unto the Herbs and Trees be Peace
- Yajur Veda 36.17

Thank You!
ईशरवरस्यममदं सवं यत्किञ्च जगकयरं जगत ् ।
तेन कयक्तेन भञ्
ु जीथर मर गधृ ाः िस्यत्स्वद्धनम ् ।।
-ईशरवरस्योऩननषद
आ नो भद्राः क्रतवो यन्तु ववश्वताः।
- ऋग्वेद, १.८९.१
‘Let noble thoughts come to us from all directions’
-RigVeda,1.89.1