Global Problems of Economics, Management and Business

BESLI Business, Economics, Sustainability,

Leadership and Innovations

Joint Scientific Journal

УДК 339.7 Maryna Lubkina

JEL Classification E52, F38 Nataly Amalyan

Currency Wars

The article presents an attempt to demonstrate possible outcomes of the

ongoing third currency war on the basis of the analysis of the consequences of
the previous two ones — the first one ending in the World War II and downfall
of gold standard and the second causing the fall of Bretton Woods system.
Keywords: currency war, regime of exchange rate, devaluation, dollar, gold

DOI 10.37659/2663-5070-2022-8-17-25

At the beginning of the 2000s, at a G20’s finance tion among other countries by devaluing their
ministers and heads of central banks summit in national currencies. Any war is based on the
Gyeongju, South Korea, an issue regarding a co- long-standing contradictions between the par-
ordinated monetary policy was addressed. The ties, which transform into an antagonistic con-
final communiqué stated that countries would flict. For each country, devaluation provides at
refrain from competitive devaluations of national least a temporary value advantage that increas-
currencies. This statement was made against the es the competitiveness of domestic firms. Any
background of rumors that are constantly being country can maintain an advantage of this kind
discussed about the resolution of currency wars only until the next competitor devalues its cur-
by developed countries against each other and rency. Globally, when several countries simulta-
developing countries. Officials from the United neously implement the use of undervalued na-
States, the European Union, and Japan are mak- tional currencies to stimulate exports of goods
ing a lot of effort convincing everyone that there and services, restrain imports, balance trade and
is no cause for concern and no evidence of such balance of payments, and stabilize the general
wars. However, many questions remain on the economic situation in their country, currency war
agenda: what are currency wars, what are the immediately gains momentum.
goals, methods and consequences of their con- The aim of the paper is to analyse the pe-
duct and most importantly — why is the problem culiarities of two previous currency wars, their
of currency wars became so relevant nowadays? causes and consequences in order to demon-
Currency wars are attempts of two or more strate possible outcomes of the ongoing third
countries to improve their competitive posi- currency war.

Currency Wars
Volume: 2022, Issue: 8 17
Global Problems of Economics, Management and Business

Literature Review aimed at the provision of the state with the

money needed to subsidize the budget deficit
The term “currency war” for the first time was and cover government spending. This has be-
voiced by Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Man- come one of the most destructive falsifications
tega in September 2010 in his speech in Sao in the history of the economy. There is a myth
Paulo [1]. Condemning the Federal Reserve’s un- that Germany deliberately destroyed its curren-
conventional monetary policy (quantitative eas- cy to avoid paying off the debts to Britain and
ing), Mr. Mantega labeled the aim of this policy France. However, these debts were pegged to
as “beggar-thy-neighbor” [2]. “gold marks”, characterized as a certain amount
This statement has immediately caused heat- of gold or its equivalent in non-German cur-
ed debate both among academics and business- rency, and the protocol of the agreement was
men. Some economists called the whole idea as based on the export ratio, expressed as a per-
misconception: Paul Krugman [3], for example, centage, regardless of the value of the paper
endeavored to prove that the policy of the cen- currency. These values, based on the amount of
tral banks of Japan, the US, and the UK entailed gold and exports, were not affected by inflation.
expansionary monetary policy, with currency However, the Reichsbank saw an opportunity
depreciation being simply a byproduct. At the to increase German exports by devaluing the
same time other economists consider activities currency to ensure the availability of its goods
directed at the depreciation of national curren- abroad and to promote tourism and foreign in-
cies as a tool of a currency war, having a global vestments. Such funds would provide Germany
range and take place in all important financial with the necessary foreign currency to pay off
centers in the world simultaneously, 24 hours a its debts.
day [4]. The outflow of capital is traditional in re-
Dozens of scientists are engaged in investiga- sponse to currency depreciation. Those who had
tion of different aspects of currency wars, such the opportunity to exchange German marks for
as: the notion of a currency war [5], determinants Swiss francs, gold or other currencies did so, thus
of disturbances in the contemporary FOREX moving their savings abroad. Even the German
markets [6, 7], the factors driving the emergence bourgeoisie did not immediately notice the im-
of currency wars [8], risk aspects of the war [9], pending collapse, as the devaluation of the cur-
causes and ways of forecasting the currency cri- rency was offset by the revenue from the stock
sis [10] etc. The most extreme approach in ex- exchange. After all, those who worked in state-
plaining the issue is treating currency wars as owned and trade-union enterprises were insured
the first stage of a series of events leading to a against the crisis from the beginning, as the state
military conflict: currency wars > overt protec- paid a salary proportional to inflation. Germany
tionism > trade wars > military conflict [11]. accelerated its development only when Presi-
dent Herbert Hoover announced a moratorium
Results on post-war debt payments.
While hyperinflation was in full swing in Ger-
The first “Currency War” (1921–1936). The First many, other major countries sent representa-
Currency War began spectacularly, in 1921, on tives to the Genoa Conference in the spring of
the background of the recently ended World 1922 to consider the idea of returning to the
War I. It reached its unfinished end in 1936. The gold standard. Until 1914, most states used
war was fought in several rounds on five conti- the gold standard, in which paper currency was
nents and had a great impact on the XXI century. linked to gold reserves, which ensured the free
Geographically the First Currency War was circulation of both currency and gold. However,
launched in 1921 in the city of Weimar, German with the start of the war, most states abandoned
when the Reichsbank, Germany’s central bank, such economic policies because there was a
prepared to destroy the value of German marks need to print money in large quantities. Then,
by printing huge amounts of money leading to in 1922, when the requirements of the Treaty of
hyperinflation. Inflation controlled by the head Versailles have been met and the debts paid off,
of the Reichsbank, Rudolf von Havenstein, was the world was once again looking to return to
a result of the purchase of government bills the gold standard.

Currency Wars
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Meanwhile, in financing the war many coun- the devaluation, as prices stopped falling, mon-
tries also suffered from raising inflations: in the ey supply increased, credits began to expand,
U.S. and the UK price levels doubled, in France — industrial production increased, and unemploy-
tripled and quadrupled in Italy. The French franc ment declined. The Great Depression was far
collapsed in 1925, although not as sharply as from over, and these successes were so small
the German mark collapsed. This collapse im- compared to the big picture that businesses and
mediately paved the way for the golden age of people still had a long way to go. This was the
Americans who permanently lived in France in first step, at least for those countries that have
the 1920s, such as Scott and Zelda Fitzgerald devalued against gold and other countries.
and Ernest Hemingway, who reported the con- France abandoned gold in 1936, and became
sequences of the collapse of the French curren- the last great power to emerge from the Great
cy to the “Toronto Star” newspapers. Americans Depression.
could afford to live a more comfortable life in It is still difficult to assess the extent to which
Paris by exchanging dollars for francs. this imbalance and the wrong economic course
As a result of franc devaluation, France has contributed to the Great Depression. But it is
gained temporarily an export advantage over clear that the failure of the gold standard has
countries such as the United States and Britain. led many economists of our time to underes-
In turn, these countries followed the same deval- timate the role of gold in the international fi-
uation policy, but in a particular way. nancial system. It would be appropriate to ask:
For example, gold was a big problem for the was gold the problem? Or has the system been
United States. In addition to official savings (in ruined by the price of it, which originated with
the Federal Reserve banks), gold was distributed nostalgia for the pre-war value combined with a
in the form of coins and used by individuals as low exchange rate currency and incorrect inter-
legal tender, and even stored as bars and coins est rates?
in bank branches. This gold could be considered In the next round (after rounds of devalua-
as money, but such as a tool that could only be tions and defaults), the world’s largest econo-
stored and put into circulation. mies entered the war when they were at the bot-
In 1934 Franklin Delano Roosevelt, then the tom, undermining trade, production and wealth.
president of the United States, banned the pri- The volatile nature of the international financial
vate ownership of gold. After that US president system of that period made the First Currency
startled the world by revaluing the bullion after War a prime example for present time, when the
seizing billions of dollars’ worth: a previously de- world is once again threatened by large unpaid
termined price of $20.67 per ounce of gold sud- debts.
denly increased to $35. In such a way Roosevelt The Second Currency War (1967–1987). Short-
reduced the value of the dollar by 69 percent ly before the end of World War II, the main eco-
over night. The Gold Reserve Act of 1934 also nomic powers of the anti-fascist coalition, led
approved the establishment of a Monetary Sta- by the United States and Great Britain, began
bilization Fund financed by proceeds from the to develop a draft of a new monetary order. Ev-
confiscation of gold, which could be used by the eryone felt a desire to avoid the mistakes of the
treasury for change of the market exchange rate Treaty of Versailles and the period between the
at its discretion, and other market operations. wars. These plans were implemented during the
The Monetary Stabilization Fund is sometimes Bretton Woods Conference in New Hampshire in
called the Treasury Bribe Fund because the mon- July 1944. As a result, a set of rules, norms and
ey did not have to be owned by Congress as part regulations, which shaped the world economy
of the budget process. for the next three decades were put in appear-
Britain returned to the gold standard in1925, ance (International Economics, 2003).
but the economic hardships of the Great depres- The Bretton Woods era, which lasted from
sion forced the country’s final departure in 1931. 1944 till 1973, although interrupted by several
Britain’s break up with gold in 1931 and the economic downturns, was generally a period of
American devaluation against gold in 1933 had financial stability, low inflation, low unemploy-
the expected effect. Both the British and Ameri- ment, and high real income growth. This period
can economies achieved immediate results from was almost the complete opposite of the First

Currency Wars
Volume: 2022, Issue: 8 19
Global Problems of Economics, Management and Business

Currency War in 1921–1936. Due to the Bretton the dollar. This position gradually deteriorated,
Woods Conference, the international monetary and by 1965 only 26 % of the world’s reserves
system was pegged to gold through the fixation were in pounds. The British balance of payments
of the US dollar to gold at $35 per ounce. Other has been declining since the early 1960s, and in
monetary systems in the world have switched to late 1964 it reached a negative mark [13]. On
gold indirectly, fixing the exchange rate against November18, 1067 British pound was devalued
the US dollar. The short-term lending to certain by just under 15 per cent.
countries in conditions of foreign trade deficit The Bretton Woods system failed after twen-
was carried out with the help of the International ty years of successfully maintaining a fixed ex-
Monetary Fund created in the framework of the change rate and price stability. If even Britain
Bretton Woods Agreement. Countries could de- could devalue the currency, so could others. The
value their currencies only with the permission US government has tried to prevent the pound
of the IMF, and such a right would be granted from depreciating, fearing that dollar will be
only in cases of persistent trade deficits, accom- the next. Soon their fears were to be justified.
panied by high inflation. The United States experienced the same com-
Although the Bretton Woods Agreement was bination of trade deficits and inflation that the
signed by many countries, the system was in fact pound suffered from, with one significant differ-
governed almost exclusively by the United States: ence. Under the Bretton Woods agreement, the
compared to the rest of the world, US military and value of the dollar was not linked to any curren-
economic power was at its highest, unprecedent- cy other than gold. Therefore, the devaluation of
ed until the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. the dollar would mean an increase in the value
Despite the effectiveness of the Bretton of the dollar price of gold. Buying gold was a
Woods Agreement, the beginning of the Sec- logical step in the expected devaluation of the
ond Monetary War was already evident in the dollar, so the London gold market attracted the
second half and late 1960s. Conventionally, the attention of speculators.
year of the start of the Second Monetary War Despite the sharp criticism from France, the
can be called 1967, although its preconditions United States had one loyal ally in the Golden
occurred in 1964, after the victory (with an over- Pool, the Federal Republic of Germany. This was
whelming majority) of Lyndon Johnson and his vital as Germany had a trade surplus and accu-
political program at the election. The citizens of mulated gold, both with the IMF (during pound
the United States at that time made the same support operations) and as a buyer in the Gold
analytical mistake that their comrades in mis- Pool. If Germany suddenly demanded gold in
fortune made in 1921 in Weimar Germany. They exchange for its balance of dollar reserves, the
initially assumed that prices would rise, but in dollar crisis would be stronger than the pound
fact there was a currency crash. High prices are crisis. However, Germany has secretly assured
a symptom, not the cause, of the currency crash. the United States that it does not intend to
The Second Currency War was nothing more throw dollars in exchange for gold.
than the inflation of the US dollar and its ca- The London gold market was temporarily
tastrophe [12]. closed on March 15, 1968 to stop the outflow of
Bypassing US central policy and progressive gold, and remained closed for two weeks. A few
inflation in the United States during the Second days after closing, the US Congress declared the
Currency War, first shots of the currency war requirements for the provision of gold reserves
were fired not in the United States but in Great to support the US currency invalid; this allowed
Britain, where the pound crisis had been brewing a gold stock to cost $35 if needed. However, this
since 1964 and boiled over in 1967 from the first measure did not bring any results as well. By the
major currency devaluation since Bretton Woods end of March 1968, the London Golden Pool
Agreement. Although the pound sterling was a had collapsed. Later, it was planned to move to
less important currency in the Bretton Woods a two-tier gold market, with a market price de-
system, it was nevertheless an important reserve termined by London, and the international price
and trading currency. In 1945, the British pound (according to the Bretton Woods agreement —
constituted a larger share of world reserves — $35 per ounce). The resulting “golden window”
the combined stakes of all central banks — than concerned the ability of countries to exchange

Currency Wars
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dollars for gold at $35 an ounce and sell on the uation of the pound turned into a defeat for the
open market at $40 or more [14]. dollar as investors sought the relative security of
The two-tier system directed the pressure on the German mark and the Swiss franc [15].
the seller as a result of speculative agreements In June 1972, John Connally resigned as Min-
with other sellers on the open market, while the ister of Finance, so that the new Minister, George
price of $35 was available only to central banks. P. Schultz, entered the vortex of the dollar crisis
However, US allies have reached an informal almost as soon as he took the office. With the
agreement not to take advantage of the “golden help of Paul Walker (his deputy) and Fed chair-
window” and not to buy gold at a cheaper offi- man Arthur Burns, Mr. Schultz was able to imple-
cial price. The collapse of the Golden Pool, the ment agreements (essentially short-term foreign
creation of a two-tier system, and some short- currency loans) between the Federal Reserve and
term tough measures by the United States and European central banks and began to intervene
Britain helped stabilize the international mone- markets to quell the dollar panic.
tary system in late 1968–1969, but the forthcom- So far, all the “ranges”, “dirty course fluctuations”
ing collapse of the Bretton Woods system was and other techniques designed to maintain some
obvious. resemblance to Bretton Woods have failed. There
On November 29, 1968, shortly after the was nothing left but to move all the advanced cur-
collapse of the London Gold Pool, the newspa- rencies into a system of free fluctuations.
pers reported that one of the problems with the Finally, in 1973, the IMF announced the end
monetary system was that “the world trade was of the Bretton Woods system, put an end to the
growing much faster than world gold reserves.” role of gold in the international financial sys-
Such statements illustrate one of the greatest tem and left the value of currencies be uncon-
misunderstandings of the role of gold. It is wrong strained. The era of a single currency was over
to say that there is not enough gold in the world and another has begun, but currency wars were
to support world trade, because the problem is far from over.
not the quantity; the problem is rather the price. The age of fluctuating exchange rates began
There was a shortage of gold at $35 per ounce in 1973, at the same time as the dollar lost its
but the same amount of gold could easily sup- position, putting an end to the tragedies of de-
port the world trade at $100 per ounce or high- valuation, which have been at the heart of all af-
er. The problem that the newspapers were really fairs in the international monetary system since
referring to, and what it was right about, was the the 1920s. Markets have now allowed the cur-
artificially lowered price of $35 per ounce. When rencies to rise and fall on a daily basis as they
the price of gold was too low, the problem was see fit. Governments intervened in market rela-
not a shortage of gold but a surplus of paper tions from time to time to make up for what they
money over gold. This surplus was reflected in saw as surpluses or disorderly conditions, but
rising inflation in the United States, Britain and this usually had a limited and temporary effect.
France. The Plaza Agreement in September 1985 was
In 1969, the IMF tackled the problem of “gold the culmination of a multilateral attempt to bring
shortage” and created a new form of internation- down the dollar price. The finance ministers of
al reserve asset called the Special Drawing Rights West Germany, Japan, France and Britain met
(SDR). The idea of the SDR was rather vague, as with the US finance minister at the Plaza Hotel
SDR lacked any material support and distribut- in New York to work out a plan to devalue the
ed among the countries according to their IMF dollar, mostly against the yen and the German
quota. It was quickly called “paper gold” because mark. Central banks have allocated more than
it represented a fund that could compensate for $10 million to this case, which has been operat-
the balance of payments deficits in the same way ing as planned for several years. From 1985 till
as gold or reserve currencies did. 1988, the dollar price decreased by more than
On June 29, 1972, Germany established con- 40 % against the French franc, by 50 % against
trol over the movement of capital in an attempt the yen and by 20 % against the German mark.
to stop the panicky purchase of German marks. The Plaza deal was a success as a devalua-
By July 3, the Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar tion, but the economic results were disappoint-
had joined. The process which began as a deval- ing. The US unemployment remained high — at

Currency Wars
Volume: 2022, Issue: 8 21
Global Problems of Economics, Management and Business

7 % in 1986, while economic recovery slowed to the yuan, issued by the world’s three most pow-
3.2 % in 1987. Once again, a quick solution to erful economies (the United States, the Europe-
the problem proved impossible and, once again, an Union and the People’s Republic of China),
United States had to pay a high fee in the form are the three superpowers in the new currency
of inflation, which began to lag after the Plaza war. The Third Monetary War began in 2010 as
Agreement, reaching 6.1 % in 1990. Devaluation a result of the 2007 economic downturn and a
and currency wars have never contributed to the desperate attempt by the major central banks to
rise or emergence of promised jobs, but they pull the world economy out of a structural de-
have steadily contributed to inflation. pression with a help of ‘helicopter money’ [4].
The Plaza Agreement was considered by its No one denies the importance of other lead-
participants to be too successful and became ing currencies in the global financial system, such
the basis for correcting the rapid fall of the dollar as the Japanese yen, the British pound sterling,
from a high 1985 mark. The G7 (which included the Swiss franc, and Chinese renminbi. These cur-
the Plaza Agreement members, as well as Cana- rencies derive their importance from the scale of
da and Italy) met in the Louvre, Paris, in the be- the economies of the countries that issue them
ginning of 1987 to sign the Louvre Agreement, and from the volume of trade and financial trans-
designed to stabilize the dollar at a new, lower actions that these countries deal with. According
level. Together with the Louvre Agreement, the to these parameters, local dollars issued by Aus-
Second Currency War ended — as soon as the tralia, New Zealand, Canada, Singapore, Hong
G7 finance ministers decided that after 20 years Kong and Taiwan, as well as the Norwegian kro-
of turmoil, it was time to say “stop”. ne, the South Korean won and the UAE dirham
By 1987, gold was out of the international fi- occupy a high position. But the combined GDP of
nancial system, the dollar was devalued, the yen the United States, the EU and China which is 60 %
and the mark were rising, the pound fluctuated, of world GDP creates a center of gravity, and all
the euro was only being planned, and China has other currencies (and economies) become some-
not yet taken its place on the world stage. So what peripheral.
far, relative calm has flourished in international Each country has its main fronts and roman-
financial affairs, but this calm has been strong tic, sometimes bloody, distracting maneuvers.
only due to the belief in the dollar as a means World War II was the largest and most wide-
of saving in a growing US economy and a stable spread military conflict in history. The perspec-
monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. These tive of the United States on this war is clearly
conditions largely dominated in 1990s and ear- divided into Europe and the Pacific. And from
ly 21st century, despite two small recessions the point of view of Japan, the war covered the
during this period. The currency crises that re- majestic empire from Burma to Pearl Harbor.
ally arose were crises other than the dollar, such The British, in spite of everything, fought every-
as the pound sterling crisis in 1992, the Mexican where at once.
peso crisis in 1994, and the Asia-Russia crisis of The same is true of currency wars. The main
1997–1998. Of great importance was a creation front lines that have formed are the dollar-yuan
of the European Economic and Monetary Union arena, which stretches across the Pacific Ocean,
with a single currency — the euro — that put the arena of the dollar and the euro — across
an end to the competition between 19 European the Atlantic Ocean, and the arena of the euro
countries in the monetary sphere. and yuan in Eurasian territory. These battles are
But none of these crises posed a real threat real, but the geographical indications are condi-
to the dollar. In fact, the dollar was a safe haven tional. The fact is that currency wars are waged
when they arose. It seemed that either a failure everywhere in all financial centers, 24 hours a
to grow or a rise in competitive economic power day, by bankers, traders, politicians and auto-
would be needed to threaten the dominance of mated systems.
the dollar. When these factors finally converged Ten years after its start the third “Currency
at one point, in 2010, the result was the interna- War” has acquired very specific features, which
tional currency equivalent of a tsunami. enable the researchers to label it as a ‘Reverse
The third “Currency War” (2010 — …). The currency war’. This new definition is used to de-
three supercurrencies: the dollar, the euro and scribe a situation in which central banks work

Currency Wars
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to make their currency stronger. Rather than More optimistic are numerous supporters of
boosting growth, the goal of such policy is to cryptocurrency, who view it as the possible glob-
help tame inflation, since a stronger currency al currency of the future world monetary system
means that imports are become cheaper. The (such as Chi Lo [19], G. Claeys, M. Demertzis, K.
Fed’s actions have already boosted the US dol- Efstathiou [20], and many others. It is estimated
lar, driving up Bloomberg’s gauge of greenback that with the existence of more than 12 000 cryp-
strength by close to 7 % this year [16]. tocurrencies the global cryptocurrency market is
Another central bank, previously known for worth $1.41 trillion. It seems quite possible that
using direct foreign-exchange intervention to in the nearest future we are going to witness the
weaken its currency, and now doing the oppo- ‘cryptocurrency’ wars: different cryptocurrencies
site is The Swiss National Bank. Its management fighting for their share of financial market.
allowed its currency to strengthen in 2022 and The last argument: at present more than 100
as SNB President Thomas Jordan has declared, countries, including 19 G20 nations, are ex-
“We let the Swiss franc appreciate… This is one ploring central bank digital currencies (CBDC).
of the reasons why in Switzerland inflation is Ten countries have already launched their own
lower than compared to the euro zone or the digital currency, including Nigeria in Africa and
United States” [17]. Jamaica in the Caribbean. The Bahamas in the
Today, participation in currency wars is not lim- West Indies was the first country in the world to
ited to national currency issuers and their central roll out a national central bank digital currency,
banks. The war involves multilateral and global called the Sand Dollar, in October 2020. China is
institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank, the due to launch a CBDC in 2023.
Bank for International Settlements and the United
Nations, as well as private legal entities such as Conclusion
hedge funds, global corporations and the private
family offices of the richest people. As specula- Examining the historiography of the first, second
tors, hedgers and manipulators, these private or- and third currency wars, it was found that cur-
ganizations have the same impact on the fate of rency warfare involves governments and central
currencies as the nations that issue them. To see banks deliberately influencing the national ex-
that the front lines are global and not limited to change rate, usually to achieve a relatively low
nation-states, it is worth mentioning the old story exchange rate to expand exports or, as of recent,
about a hedge fund managed by George Soros, to fix high exchange rate to expand imports. In
who “destroyed the Bank of England” in 1992 in spite of temporary gains in the long run currency
a large-scale currency betting. Today, there are wars are ineffective. The necessity of the reform
much more leverage hedge funds (loan-to-equity of the international monetary system seems ob-
ratios) of more than $1 trillion that Soros could vious.
not have even imagined 20 years ago.
Whichever the form currency war is tak-
ing, events happening before our very eyes are References:
fraught with certain risks. According to well-
1. Pearson, Samantha, Alvesm Aluisio. Brazil says
known American investment banker James
world in a “currency war”. REUTERS. September
Rickards, the risk of the currency war doesn’t lie 28, 2010. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-bra-
simply in devaluation of currencies or the rise zil-currency-idUKLNE68R00720100928
of gold price, but in the threat of a collapse of 2. Eichengreen, B. (2013). Currency War or Interna-
the whole monetary system. This could lead to tional Policy Coordination? University of California,
the failure of trust in paper currencies and peo- Berkeley.
ple can completely lose their faith in the mone- 3. Krugman, Paul. “Currency War Confusions.”
tary system. Rickards further states that this war Paul Krugman Blog (New York Times), Febru-
could be the last one and its deadly effects could ary 15, 2013. http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.
mean an end to all national currency wars [4]. com/2013/02/15/currency-war-confusions/?_
php=true&_type=blogs&_r=2
Even more pessimistic is Robert Morley [18],
4. Rickards, J. (2012). Currency wars: the making of
who entitled his article “Currency War: Dragging the next global crisis. Penguin.
the World Toward World War III”.

Currency Wars
Volume: 2022, Issue: 8 23
Global Problems of Economics, Management and Business

5. Wolf, W. (2010). Currencies clash in new age of Journal. Vol. 47, No. 4 (Dec., 2004). https://www.
beggar-my-neighbour. Financial Times. http:// jstor.org/stable/4091665
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(Working Paper, No. 11/165). Washington, DC: IMF. en/2008-en/258-world-money-history-and-pros-
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targets, forex interventions and exchange rate 15. Wilson C. (14 march 2017) Everything You Need to
volatility in emerging countries. Journal of Interna- Know About Currency Wars. The Daily Reckoning.
tional Money and Finance, 31 (2). URL: https://dailyreckoning.com/everything-to-
8. Brahmbhatt, M., Canuto, O., & Ghosh, S. (2010). Cur- know-about-currency-wars/
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World Bank, 43 a Reverse Currency War and Who’s Fighting One?:
9. Pera, J. (2018). The third currency war as an effect QuickTake. Bloomberg, June 23. https://www.
of post-crisis changes in the international currency bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022–06–23/what-
system. The risk aspect–the case analyses of Brazil. s-a-reverse-currency-war-and-who-s-fighting-one-
Journal of Economics & Management, 31. http:// quicktake?leadSource=uverify%20wall
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 Загальносвітові проблеми економіки, менеджменту та бізнесу

Лубкіна М., Амалян Н. Д.

Валютні війни
У статті зроблено спробу продемонструвати можливі наслідки
третьої валютної війни, що триває, на основі аналізу наслідків двох
попередніх, що вже завершені. Валютні війни — це спроби двох або
більше країн поліпшити свої конкурентні позиції стосовно інших кра-
їн шляхом девальвації своїх національних валют (т.з. політика “розо-
ри свого сусіда”). Для кожної країни девальвація забезпечує принаймні
тимчасову ціннісну перевагу, що підвищує конкурентоспроможність
вітчизняних фірм. Будь-яка країна може зберігати таку перевагу лише
до тих пір, поки наступний конкурент не девальвує власну валюту.
У глобальному масштабі, коли кілька країн одночасно використову-
ють занижені національні валюти для стимулювання експорту то-
варів і послуг, стримування імпорту, збалансування торговельного
та платіжного балансу та стабілізації загальної економічної ситуа-
ції в своїй країні, валютна війна негайно набирає обертів. Перша ва-
лютна війна (1921–1937 роки) завершилася відмовою на глобальному
рівні від золотого стандарту та другою Світовою війною; друга ва-
лютна війна (1967–1987) призвела до відмови від золото-доларового
стандарту та системи фіксованих валютних курсів, і загалом до па-
діння Бреттон-Вудської системи. На початку 2000-х років на самиті
міністрів фінансів і керівників центробанків країн у Південній Кореї
розглядалося питання щодо скоординованої монетарної політики.
У підсумковому комюніке було зазначено, що країни утримаються від
конкурентної девальвації національних валют. Втім вже з 2010 року
з легкої руки міністра фінансів Бразилії Гвідо Монтега вираз “валютна
війна” став загальновживаним для характеристики стану міжнарод-
них валютних відносин. Останнім часом особливістю нової валютної
війни став її реверсний характер (цілеспрямоване підвищення курсу
власної національної валюти з метою стимулювання імпорту та
приборкання інфляції) та зростання ролі криптовалют.
Ключові слова: валютна війна, режим валютного курсу, девальвація,
долар, золото

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