Currency war

Depression, they used currency devaluations to stimulate their economies. Since this eectively pushes unemployment overseas, trading partners quickly retaliated
with their own devaluations. The period is considered
to have been an adverse situation for all concerned, as
unpredictable changes in exchange rates reduced overall
international trade.
According to Guido Mantega, the Brazilian Minister for
Finance, a global currency war broke out in 2010. This
view was echoed by numerous other government ocials
and nancial journalists from around the world. Other
senior policy makers and journalists suggested the phrase
currency war overstated the extent of hostility. With a
few exceptions such as Mantega, even commentators who
agreed there had been a currency war in 2010, generally
concluded that it had zzled out by mid-2011.
States engaging in possible competitive devaluation since
2010 have used a mix of policy tools, including direct
government intervention, the imposition of capital controls, and, indirectly, quantitative easing. While many
countries experienced undesirable upward pressure on
their exchange rates and took part in the ongoing arguments, the most notable dimension of the 201011
episode was the rhetorical conict between the United
States and China over the valuation of the yuan. In January 2013, measures announced by Japan which were expected to devalue its currency sparked concern of a possible second 21st century currency war breaking out, this
time with the principal source of tension being not China
versus the US, but Japan versus the Eurozone. By late
February, concerns of a new outbreak of currency war
had been mostly allayed, after the G7 and G20 issued
statements committing to avoid competitive devaluation.
After the European Central Bank launched a fresh programm of quantitative easing in January 2015, there was
once again an intensication of discussion about currency
war.

Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega, who made headlines

when he raised the alarm about a Currency War in September
2010.

Currency war, also known as competitive devaluation,

is a condition in international aairs where countries
compete against each other to achieve a relatively low
exchange rate for their own currency. As the price to buy
a countrys currency falls so too does the price of exports.
Imports to the country become more expensive. So domestic industry, and thus employment, receives a boost in
demand from both domestic and foreign markets. However, the price increase for imports can harm citizens
purchasing power. The policy can also trigger retaliatory
action by other countries which in turn can lead to a general decline in international trade, harming all countries.

1 Background
1.1 Reasons for intentional devaluation

Competitive devaluation has been rare through most of

history as countries have generally preferred to maintain
a high value for their currency. Countries have generally
allowed market forces to work, or have participated in
systems of managed exchanges rates. An exception occurred when currency war broke out in the 1930s. As
countries abandoned the Gold Standard during the Great

Devaluation, with its adverse consequences, has historically rarely been a preferred strategy. According to
economist Richard N. Cooper, writing in 1971, a substantial devaluation is one of the most traumatic policies a
government can adopt it almost always resulted in cries
of outrage and calls for the government to be replaced.[1]
1

BACKGROUND

rates for an increasing number of countries. However, a

states central bank can still intervene in the markets to effect a devaluation if it sells its own currency to buy other
currencies[7] then this will cause the value of its own currency to fall a practice common with states that have a
managed exchange rate regime. Less directly, quantitative easing (common in 2009 and 2010), tends to lead to
a fall in the value of the currency even if the central bank
does not directly buy any foreign assets.
Cumulative current account balance 19802008 (US$ Billions)
based on International Monetary Fund data for an interactive
overview of global imbalances and other macro trends, over the
past 2 decades and also future proejections, visit the OECD Data
visualization

A third method is for authorities simply to talk down the

value of their currency by hinting at future action to discourage speculators from betting on a future rise, though
sometimes this has little discernible eect. Finally, a central bank can eect a devaluation by lowering its base
rate of interest, however this sometimes has limited efDevaluation can lead to a reduction in citizens standard fect, and, since the end of World War II, most central
of living as their purchasing power is reduced both when banks have set their base rate according to the needs of
they buy imports and when they travel abroad. It also can their domestic economy.[8][6]
add to inationary pressure. Devaluation can make interest payments on international debt more expensive if If a countrys authorities wish to devalue or prevent apthose debts are denominated in a foreign currency, and it preciation against market forces exerting upwards prescan discourage foreign investors. At least until the 21st sure on the currency, and retain control of interest rates,
century, a strong currency was commonly seen as a mark as is usually the case, they will need capital controls in
that arise from the impossible
of prestige, while devaluation was associated with weak placedue to conditions
[9]
trinity
trilemma.
[2]
governments.
However, when a country is suering from high unemployment or wishes to pursue a policy of export-led
growth, a lower exchange rate can be seen as advantageous. From the early 1980s the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) has proposed devaluation as a potential solution for developing nations that are consistently spending
more on imports than they earn on exports. A lower value
for the home currency will raise the price for imports
while making exports cheaper.[3] This tends to encourage more domestic production, which raises employment
and gross domestic product (GDP) though the eect
may not be immediate due to the MarshallLerner condition. Devaluation can be seen as an attractive solution to
unemployment when other options, like increased public
spending, are ruled out due to high public debt, or when a
country has a balance of payments decit which a devaluation would help correct. A reason for preferring devaluation common among emerging economies is that maintaining a relatively low exchange rate helps them build up
foreign exchange reserves, which can protect against future nancial crises.[4][5][6]

1.2

Mechanism for devaluation

A state wishing to devalue, or at least check the appreciation of its currency, must work within the constraints of
the prevailing International monetary system. During the
1930s, countries had relatively more direct control over
their exchange rates through the actions of their central
banks. Following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s, markets substantially increased in
inuence, with market forces largely setting the exchange

1.3 Quantitative easing

Quantitative easing (QE) is the practice in which a central
bank tries to mitigate a potential or actual recession by
increasing the money supply for its domestic economy.
This can be done by printing money and injecting it into
the domestic economy via open market operations. There
may be a promise to destroy any newly created money
once the economy improves in order to avoid ination.
Quantitative easing was widely used as a response to
the nancial crises that began in 2007, especially by the
United States and the United Kingdom, and, to a lesser
extent, the Eurozone.[10] The Bank of Japan was the rst
central bank to claim to have used such a policy.[11][12]
Although the U.S. administration has denied that devaluing their currency was part of their objectives for implementing quantitative easing, the practice can act to devalue a countrys currency in two indirect ways. Firstly, it
can encourage speculators to bet that the currency will decline in value. Secondly, the large increase in the domestic money supply will lower domestic interest rates, often
they will become much lower than interest rates in countries not practising quantitative easing. This creates the
conditions for a carry trade, where market participants
can engage in a form of arbitrage, borrowing in the currency of the country practising quantitative easing, and
lending in a country with a relatively high rate of interest.
Because they are eectively selling the currency being
used for quantitative easing on the international markets,
this can increase the supply of the currency and hence
push down its value. By October 2010 expectations in the

2.1

Up to 1930

markets were high that the United States, UK, and Japan 2.1 Up to 1930
would soon embark on a second round of QE, with the
prospects for the Eurozone to join them less certain.[13]
For millennia, going back to at least the Classical period,
their currency by reIn early November 2010 the United States launched QE2, governments have often devalued
[21]
ducing
its
intrinsic
value.
Methods
have included rethe second round of quantitative easing, which had been
ducing
the
percentage
of
gold
in
coins,
or substituting
expected. The Federal Reserve made an additional $600
less
precious
metals
for
gold.
However,
until the 19th
billion available for the purchase of nancial assets. This
[22]
century,
the
proportion
of
the
worlds
trade that ocprompted widespread criticism from China, Germany,
curred
between
nations
was
very
low,
so
exchanges
rates
and Brazil that the United States was using QE2 to try
[23]
Rather
were
not
generally
a
matter
of
great
concern.
to devalue its currency without consideration to the effect the resulting capital inows might have on emerging than being seen as a means to help exporters, the debasement of currency was motivated by a desire to ineconomies.[14][15][16]
crease the domestic money supply and the ruling authorSome leading gures from the critical countries, such ities wealth through seigniorage, especially when they
as Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the Peoples Bank of needed to nance wars or pay debts. A notable examChina, have said the QE2 is understandable given the ple is the substantial devaluations which occurred during
challenges facing the United States. Wang Jun, the Chi- the Napoleonic wars. When nations wished to compete
nese Vice Finance Minister suggested QE2 could help economically they typically practiced mercantilism this
the revival of the global economy tremendously.[17] still involved attempts to boost exports while limiting imPresident Barack Obama has defended QE2, saying it ports, but rarely by means of devaluation.[24] A favoured
would help the U.S. economy to grow, which would be method was to protect home industries using current acgood for the world as a whole.[18] Japan also launched count controls such as taris. From the late 18th century,
a second round of quantitative easing though to a lesser and especially in Great Britain which for much of the
extent than the United States; Britain and the Eurozone 19th century was the worlds largest economy, mercantildid not launch an additional QE in 2010.
ism became increasingly discredited by the rival theory of
free trade, which held that the best way to encourage prosperity would be to allow trade to occur free of government
imposed controls. The intrinsic value of money became
1.4 International conditions required for formalised with a gold standard being widely adopted
from about 18701914, so while the global economy was
currency war
now becoming suciently integrated for competitive deFor a widespread currency war to occur a large propor- valuation to occur there was little opportunity. Following
tion of signicant economies must wish to devalue their the end of WWI, many countries other than the US excurrencies at once. This has so far only happened during perienced recession and few immediately returned to the
gold standard, so several of the conditions for a currency
a global economic downturn.
war were in place. However, currency war did not ocAn individual currency devaluation has to involve a cor- cur as Great Britain was trying to raise the value of its
responding rise in value for at least one other currency. currency back to its pre-war levels, eectively cooperatThe corresponding rise will generally be spread across all ing with the countries that wished to devalue against the
other currencies[19] and so unless the devaluing country market.[25] By the mid-1920s many former members of
has a huge economy and is substantially devaluing, the the gold standard had rejoined, and while the standard
osetting rise for any individual currency will tend to be did not work as successfully as it had pre war, there was
small or even negligible. In normal times other countries no widespread competitive devaluation.[26]
are often content to accept a small rise in the value of
their own currency or at worst be indierent to it. However, if much of the world is suering from a recession,
from low growth or are pursuing strategies which depend 2.2 Currency War in the Great Depression
on a favourable balance of payments, then nations can begin competing with each other to devalue. In such condi- During the Great Depression of the 1930s, most countions, once a small number of countries begin intervening tries abandoned the gold standard, resulting in currencies
this can trigger corresponding interventions from others that no longer had intrinsic value. With widespread high
as they strive to prevent further deterioration in their ex- unemployment, devaluations became common. Eectively, nations were competing to export unemployment,
port competitiveness.[20]
a policy that has frequently been described as "beggar thy
neighbour".[27] However, because the eects of a devaluation would soon be oset by a corresponding devaluation by trading partners, few nations would gain an endur2 Historical overview
ing advantage. On the other hand, resulting uctuations
in exchange rates were often harmful for international

2 HISTORICAL OVERVIEW

traders, causing global trade to decline sharply, hurting economies and increasingly transition and even emerging
all economies.
economies moved to the view that it was best to leave
The exact starting date of the 1930s currency war is the running of their economies to the markets and not
even to correct a substantial current account
open to debate.[20] The three principal parties were Great to intervene
[35][33]
decit.
Britain, France, and the United States. For most of the
1920s the three generally had coinciding interests; both
the US and France supported Britains eorts to raise
Sterlings value against market forces. Collaboration was
aided by strong personal friendships among the nations
central bankers, especially between Britains Montagu
Norman and Americas Benjamin Strong until the latters
early death in 1928. Soon after the Wall Street Crash of
1929, France lost faith in Sterling as a source of value and
begun selling it heavily on the markets. From Britains
perspective both France and the US were no longer playing by the rules of the gold standard. Instead of allowing gold inows to increase their money supplies (which
would have expanded those economies but reduced their
trade surpluses) France and the US began sterilising the
inows, building up hoards of gold. These factors contributed to the Sterling crises of 1931; in September of
that year Great Britain substantially devalued and took the
pound o the gold standard. For several years after this
global trade was disrupted by competitive devaluation
and by retaliatory taris. The currency war of the 1930s
is generally considered to have ended with the Tripartite
monetary agreement of 1936.[20][28][29][30][31][32]

2.3

Bretton Woods era

From the end of World War II until about 1971, the

Bretton Woods system of semi-xed exchange rates
meant that competitive devaluation was not an option,
which was one of the design objectives of the systems architects. Additionally, global growth was generally very
high in this period, so there was little incentive for currency war even if it had been possible.[33]

2.5 2000 to 2008

During the 1997 Asian crisis several Asian economies ran
critically low on foreign reserves, leaving them forced to
accept harsh terms from the IMF, and often to accept low
prices for the forced sale of their assets. This shattered
faith in free market thinking among emerging economies,
and from about 2000 they generally began intervening to
keep the value of their currencies low.[36] This enhanced
their ability to pursue export led growth strategies while at
the same time building up foreign reserves so they would
be better protected against further crises. No currency
war resulted because on the whole advanced economies
accepted this strategyin the short term it had some
benets for their citizens, who could buy cheap imports
and thus enjoy a higher material standard of living. The
current account decit of the US grew substantially, but
until about 2007, the consensus view among free market
economists and policy makers like Alan Greenspan, then
Chairman of the Federal Reserve, and Paul O'Neill, US
Treasury secretary, was that the decit was not a major
reason for worry.[37][38]
This is not say there was no popular concern; by 2005 for
example a chorus of US executives along with trade union
and mid-ranking government ocials had been speaking
out about what they perceived to be unfair trade practices
by China.[39] These concerns were soon partially allayed.
With the global economy doing well, China was able to
abandon its dollar peg in 2005, allowing a substantial appreciation of the Yuan up to 2007, while still increasing
its exports. The dollar peg was later re-established as the
nancial crises began to reduce Chinas export orders.

Economists such as Michael P. Dooley, Peter M. Garber,

and David Folkerts-Landau described the new economic
relationship between emerging economies and the US as
While some of the conditions to allow a currency war Bretton Woods II.[40][41]
were in place at various points throughout this period,
countries generally had contrasting priorities and at no
point were there enough states simultaneously wanting to 2.6 Competitive devaluation after 2009
devalue for a currency war to break out.[34] On several
occasions countries were desperately attempting not to Main article: Currency War of 20092011
cause a devaluation but to prevent one. So states were By 2009 some of the conditions required for a curstriving not against other countries but against market rency war had returned, with a severe economic downforces that were exerting undesirable downwards pressure turn seeing global trade in that year decline by about
on their currencies. Examples include Great Britain dur- 12%. There was a widespread concern among advanced
ing Black Wednesday and various tiger economies dur- economies about the size of their decits; they increasing the Asian crises of 1997. During the mid-1980s ingly joined emerging economies in viewing export led
the United States did desire to devalue signicantly, growth as their ideal strategy. In March 2009, even bebut were able to secure the cooperation of other major fore international co-operation reached its peak with the
economies with the Plaza Accord. As free market inu- 2009 G-20 London Summit , economist Ted Truman beences approached their zenith during the 1990s, advanced came one of the rst to warn of the dangers of compet-

2.4

1973 to 2000

2.6

Competitive devaluation after 2009

5
were winning the currency war, holding down their currencies while pushing up the value of the Euro, the Yen,
and the currencies of many emerging economies.[57]

As the worlds leading Reserve currency, the US dollar was central to the 20102011 outbreak of currency war.

Martin Wolf, an economics leader writer with the Financial Times, suggested there may be advantages in western economies taking a more confrontational approach
against China, which in recent years had been by far the
biggest practitioner of competitive devaluation. Though
he advised that rather than using protectionist measures
which may spark a trade war, a better tactic would be
to use targeted capital controls against China to prevent
them buying foreign assets in order to further devalue the
yuan, as previously suggested by Daniel Gros, Director
of the Centre for European Policy Studies.[58][59]

A contrasting view was published on 19 October, with a

paper from Chinese economist Yiping Huang arguing that
itive devaluation. He also coined the phrase competitive the US did not win the last currency war with Japan,[60]
and has even less of a chance against China; but should
non-appreciation.[42][43][44]
focus instead on broader structural adjustments at the
On 27 September 2010, Brazilian Finance Minister
November 2010 G-20 Seoul summit.[61]
Guido Mantega announced that the world is in the midst
of an international currency war.[45][46] Numerous nan- Discussion over currency war and imbalances dominated
cial journalists agreed with Mantegas view, such as the the 2010 G-20 Seoul summit, but little progress was made
Financial Times Alan Beattie and The Telegraphs Am- in resolving the issue.[62][63][64][65][66]
brose Evans-Pritchard. Journalists linked Mantegas an- In the rst half of 2011 analysts and the nancial press
nouncement to recent interventions by various countries widely reported that the currency war had ended or at least
seeking to devalue their exchange rate including China, entered a lull,[67][68][69][70] though speaking in July 2011
Japan, Colombia, Israel and Switzerland.[47][48][49][50][51] Guido Mantega told the Financial Times that the conict
Other analysts such as Goldman Sachs Jim O'Neill asserted that fears of a currency war were exaggerated.[52]
In September, senior policy makers such as Dominique
Strauss-Kahn, then managing director of the IMF, and
Tim Geithner, US Secretary of the Treasury, were reported as saying the chances of a genuine currency
war breaking out were low; however by early October,
Strauss-Kahn was warning that the risk of a currency war
was real. He also suggested the IMF could help resolve
the trade imbalances which could be the underlying casus
belli for conicts over currency valuations. Mr StraussKahn said that using currencies as weapons is not a solution [and] it can even lead to a very bad situation. Theres
no domestic solution to a global problem.[53]

was still ongoing.[71]

As investor condence in the global economic outlook fell
in early August, Bloomberg suggested the currency war
had entered a new phase. This followed renewed talk of
a possible third round of quantitative easing by the US
and interventions over the rst three days of August by
Switzerland and Japan to push down the value of their
currencies.[72][73]

In September, as part of its opening speech for the 66th

United Nations Debate, and also in an article for the Financial Times, Brazilian president Dilma Rousse called
for the currency war to be ended by increased use of
oating currencies and greater cooperation and solidarity
among major economies, with exchange rate policies set
Considerable attention had been focused on the US, for the good of all rather than having individual nations
due to its quantitative easing programmes, and on striving to gain an advantage for themselves.[74][75]
China.[54][55] For much of 2009 and 2010, China has
been under pressure from the US to allow the yuan to In March 2012, Rousse said Brazil was still experiencappreciate. Between June and October 2010, China al- ing undesirable upwards pressure on its currency, with its
lowed a 2% appreciation, but there are concerns from Finance Minister Guido Mantega saying his country will
Western observers that China only relaxes its interven- no longer play the fool and allow others to get away
tion when under heavy pressure. The xed peg was not with competitive devaluation, announcing new measures
[76]
abandoned until just before the June G20 meeting, af- aimed at limiting further appreciation for the Real. By
ter which the yuan appreciated by about 1%, only to de- June however, the Real had fallen substantially from its
value slowly again, until further US pressure in Septem- peak against the Dollar, and Mantega had been able to
[77]
ber when it again appreciated relatively steeply, just prior begin relaxing his anti-appreciation measures.
to the September US Congressional hearings to discuss
measures to force a revaluation.[56]
Reuters suggested that both China and the United States

2.7

2 HISTORICAL OVERVIEW

Currency war in 2013

In mid January 2013, Japans central bank signaled the intention to launch an open ended bond buying programme
which would likely devalue the yen. This resulted in short
lived but intense period of alarm about the risk of a possible fresh round of currency war.
Numerous senior central bankers and nance ministers
issued public warnings, the rst being Alexei Ulyukayev,
the rst deputy chairman at Russias central bank. He was
later joined by many others including Bahk Jae-wan, the
nance minister for South Korea, and by Jens Weidmann,
president of the Bundesbank. Weidmann held the view
that interventions during the 200911 period were not
intense enough to count as competitive devaluation, but
that a genuine currency war is now a real possibility.[78]
Japans economy minister Akira Amari has said that the
Bank of Japans bond buying programme is intended to
combat deation, and not to weaken the yen.[79]

shya Trivedi has suggested that rising stock markets imply that market players generally agree that central banks
actions are best understood as monetary easing and not
as competitive devaluation. Other analysts have however continued to assert that ongoing tensions over currency valuation remain, with currency war and even trade
war still a signicant risk. Central bank ocials ranging from New Zealand and Switzerland to China have
made fresh statements about possible further interventions against their currencies.[87][88][89][90]

Analyses has been published by currency strategists at

RBS, scoring countries on their potential to undertake intervention, measuring their relative intention to weaken
their currency and their capacity to do so. Ratings are
based on the openness of a countrys economy, export
growth and real eective exchange rate (REER) valuation, as well as the scope a country has to weaken its
currency without damaging its economy. As of January
2013, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Chile and Sweden
are the most willing and able to intervene, while the UK
In early February, ECB president Mario Draghi agreed and New Zealand are among the least.[91]
that expansionary monetary policy like QE have not been
undertaken to deliberately cause devaluation. Draghis From March 2013, concerns over further currency war
statement did however hint that the ECB may take action diminished, though in November several journalists and
if the Euro continues to appreciate, and this saw the value analysts warned of a possible fresh outbreak. The likely
of the European currency fall considerably.[80] A mid principal source of tension appeared to shift once again,
February statement from the G7 armed the advanced this time not being the U.S. versus China or the Euroeconomies commitment to avoid currency war. It was zone versus Japan, but the U.S. versus Germany. In late
initially read by the markets as an endorsement of Japans October U.S. treasury ocials had criticized Germany
surplus,
actions, though later clarication suggested the US would for running an excessively large current account
[92] [93]
thus
acting
as
a
drag
on
the
global
economy.
like Japan to tone down some of its language, specically by not linking policies like QE to an expressed desire to devalue the Yen.[81] Most commentators have asserted that if a new round of competitive devaluation oc- 2.8 Currency war in 2014
curs it would be harmful for the global economy. However some analysts have stated that Japans planned ac- Since September 2014, several journalists, commentations could be in the long term interests of the rest of the tors and nancial sector insiders have again raised the
world; just as he did for the 201011 incident, economist prospect of further currency war. This time, rather than
Barry Eichengreen has suggested that even if many other being intended as a means to boost competitiveness, some
countries start intervening against their currencies it could states, especially Japan and the Eurozone, may be motiboost growth world-wide, as the eects would be similar vated to devalue their currencies as a means to counter
to semi-coordinated global monetary expansion. Other the threat of deation. ECB President Mario Draghi
analysts have expressed skepticism about the risk of a war has however denied any intent to engage in competitive
breaking out, with Marc Chandler, chief currency strate- devaluation.[94][95][96]
gist at Brown Brothers Harriman, advising that: A real
currency war remains a remote possibility. [82] [83] [84]
[85]

On 15 February, a statement issued from the G20 meeting of nance ministers and central bank governors in
Moscow armed that Japan would not face high level international criticism for its planned monetary policy. In
a remark endorsed by US Fed chairman Ben Bernanke,
the IMFs managing director Christine Lagarde said that
recent concerns about a possible currency war had been
overblown.[86] Paul Krugman has echoed Eichengreens
view that central banks unconventional monetary policy
is best understood as a shared concern to boost growth,
not as currency war. Goldman Sachs strategist Kamak-

2.9 Currency war in 2015

A 60bn per month quantitative easing programme was
launched in January 2015 by the European Central Bank.
While lowering the value of the Euro was not part of the
programmes ocial objectives, there was much speculation that the new Q.E. represents an escalation of currency
war, especially from analysts working in the FX markets.
David Woo for example, a managing director at Bank
of America Merrill Lynch, stated there was a growing
consensus among market participants that states are indeed engaging in a stealthy currency war. A Financial

7
Times editorial however claimed that rhetoric about cur- Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCrency war was once again misguided.[97] [98]
TAD) however warned in October 2010 that the uctuations in exchange rates were already causing corporations
to scale back their international investments.[101]

Comparison between 1932 and

21st century currency war

Comparing the situation in 2010 with the currency war of

the 1930s, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Daily Telegraph suggested a new currency war may be benecial for
countries suering from trade decits, noting that in the
1930s it was the big surplus countries that were severely
impacted once competitive devaluation began. He also
suggested that overly confrontational tactics may backre
on the US as they may damage the status of the dollar as
a global reserve currency.[102]
Ben Bernanke, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, also
drew a comparison with competitive devaluation in the
inter-war period, referring to the sterilisation of gold inows by France and America which helped them sustain large trade surpluses, but which also caused deationary pressure on their trading partners, contributing
to the Great Depression. Bernanke has stated the example of the 1930s implies that the pursuit of export-led
growth cannot ultimately succeed if the implications of
that strategy for global growth and stability are not taken
into account.[103]
In February 2013, Gavyn Davies for The Financial Times
emphasized that a key dierence between the 1930s and
the 21st century outbreaks is that in the thirties some
of the retaliations between countries were carried out
not by devaluations, but by increases in import taris,
which tend to be much more disruptive to international
trade.[32][104]

Migrant Mother by Dorothea Lange (1936). This portrait of a

32-year-old farm-worker with seven children became an iconic
photograph symbolising deance in the face of adversity. A currency war contributed to the world wide economic hardship of
the 1930s Great Depression.

4 Other uses

The term currency war is sometimes used with meanBoth the 1930s episode and the outbreak of competitive ings that are not related to competitive devaluation.
devaluation that began in 2009 occurred during global In the 2007 book, Currency Wars by Chinese economist
economic downturns. An important dierence with the Song Hongbing, the term is sometimes used in a some2010s period is that international traders are much bet- what contrary sense, to refer to an alleged practice where
ter able to hedge their exposures to exchange rate volatil- unscrupulous bankers lend to emerging market countries
ity due to more sophisticated nancial markets. A sec- and then speculate against the emerging states currency
ond dierence is that during the later period devaluations by trying to force it down in value against the wishes of
have invariably been eected by nations expanding their that states government.[105][106]
money supplieseither by creating money to buy foreign
currency, in the case of direct interventions, or by creat- In another book of the same name, John Cooley uses the
ing money to inject into their domestic economies, with term to refer to the eorts of a states monetary authoriquantitative easing. If all nations try to devalue at once, ties to protect its currency from forgers, whether they are
the net eect on exchange rates could cancel out leav- simple criminals or agents of foreign governments trying
excess ination against
ing them largely unchanged, but the expansionary eect to devalue a currency and cause
[107]
the
home
governments
wishes.
of the interventions would remain. So while there has
been no collaborative intent, some economists such as Jim Rickards, in his 2011 book Currency Wars: The
Berkeleys Barry Eichengreen and Goldman Sachss Do- Making of the Next Global Crisis, argues that the
minic Wilson have suggested the net eect will be similar consequences of the Feds attempts to prop up ecoto semi-coordinated monetary expansion which will help nomic growth could be devastating for American national
the global economy.[48][99][100] James Zhan of the United security.[108] Though Rickards book is largely concerned

with currency war as competitive devaluation, it uses a

broader denition of the term, classing policies that cause
ination as currency war. Such policies can be seen as
metaphorical warfare against those who have monetary
assets in favor of those who do not, but unless the effects of rising ination on international trade are oset by
a devaluation, inationary policies tend to make a countrys exports less competitive against foreign countries.[32]
In their review of the book, Publishers Weekly said:
Rickardss rst book is an outgrowth of his contributions and a later two-day war game simulation held at the
Applied Physics Laboratorys Warfare Analysis Laboratory. He argues that a nancial attack against the U.S.
could destroy condence in the dollar. In Rickardss view,
the Feds policy of quantitative easing by lessening condence in the dollar, may lead to chaos in global nancial
markets.[109] Kirkus Reviews said: In Rickards view,
the world is currently going through a third currency war
(CWIII) based on competitive devaluations. CWII occurred in the 1960s and 70s and culminated in Nixons
decision to take the dollar o the gold standard. CWI followed WWI and included the 1923 German hyperination and Roosevelts devaluation of the dollar against gold
in 1933. Rickards demonstrates that competitive devaluations are a race to the bottom, and thus instruments of
a sort of warfare. CWIII, he writes, is characterized by
the Federal Reserves policy of quantitative easing, which
he ascribes to what he calls extensive theoretical work
on depreciation, negative interest rates and stimulation
achieved at the expense of other countries. He oers
a view of how the continued depreciation and devaluation of the dollar will ultimately lead to a collapse, which
he asserts will come about through a widespread abandonment of a worthless inated instrument. Rickards
also provides possible scenarios for the future, including
collaboration among a variety of currencies, emergence
of a world central bank and a forceful U.S. return to a
gold standard through an emergency powersbased legal
regime. The author emphasizes that these questions are
matters of policy and choice, which can be dierent.[110]

NOTES AND CITATIONS

[2] Kirshner 2002, p.264

[3] Owen 2005, p.3
[4] Sloman 2004, pp. 9651034
[5] Wolf 2009, pp. 56, 57
[6] Owen 2005, pp. 15, 98100
[7] In practice this chiey means purchasing assets such as
government bonds that are denominated in other currencies
[8] Wilmott 2007, p. 10
[9] Burda 2005, pp. 248 , 515 , 516
[10] James Mackintosh (28 September 2010). Currency
War. The Financial Times. Retrieved 11 October 2010.
[11] To practice quantitative easing on a wide scale it helps to
have a reserve currency, as do the United States, Japan,
UK, and Eurozone, otherwise there is a risk of market
speculators triggering runaway devaluation to a far greater
extent than would be helpful to the country.
[12] Theoretically, money could be shared out among the entire
population, though, in practice, the new money is often
used to buy assets from nancial institutions. The idea is
that the extra money will help banks restore their balance
sheets, and will then ow from there to other areas of the
economy where it is needed, boosting spending and investment. As of November 2010 however, credit availability
has remained tight in countries that have undertaken QE,
suggesting that money is not owing freely from the banks
to the rest of the economy.
[13] Gavyn Davies (4 October 2010). The global implications of QE2. The Financial Times. Retrieved 4 October
2010.
[14] Alan Beattie in Washington, Kevin Brown in Singapore
and Jennifer Hughes in London (4 November 2010).
Backlash Against Feds $600bn Easing. The Financial
Times. Retrieved 8 November 2010.
[15] Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (1 November 2010). "QE2risks

Currency Wars and the End of Dollar Hegemony. LonHistorically, the term has been used to refer to the comdon: The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 1 November 2010.
petition between Japan and China for their currencies to
be used as the preferred tender in parts of Asia in the [16] Michael Forsythe (8 November 2010). China Says Fed
years leading up to Second Sino-Japanese War.[111]
Easing May Flood World With 'Hot Money'. Bloomberg
L.P. Retrieved 9 November 2010.

See also
Force multiplication
Trade war
Cryptocurrency

Notes and citations

[1] Cooper 1971, p.3

[17] Alan Beattie in Washington, Kathrin Hille in Beijing and

Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt (7 November 2010). Asia
Softens Criticism of U.S. Stance. Financial Times. Retrieved 8 November 2010.
[18] Ed Luce and James Lamont in New Delhi (8 November
2010). Obama Defends QE2 ahead of G20. Financial
Times. Retrieved 8 November 2010.
[19] Though not necessarily evenly: in the late 20th and early
21st century countries would often devalue specically
against the dollar, so while the devaluing currency would
lower its exchange rate against all currencies, a corresponding rise against the global average might be conned

largely just to the dollar and any currencies currently governed by a dollar peg. A further complication is that the
dollar is often aected by such huge daily ows on the
foreign exchange that the rise caused by a small devaluation may be oset by other transactions.
[20] Joshua E Keating (14 October 2010). Why do currency
wars start. Foreign Policy magazine. Retrieved 21 April
2011.
[21] Philip Coggan, ed. (2011). "passim, see esp Introduction. Paper Promises: Money, Debt and the New World
Order. Allen Lane. ISBN 1846145104.
[22] Despite global trade growing substantially in the 17th and
18th centuries
[23] Ravenhill 2005, p.7
[24] Devaluation could however be used as a last resort by mercantilist nations seeking to correct an adverse trade balance see for example chapter 23 of Keynes General
Theory
[25] This was against the interests of British workers and industrialists who preferred devaluation, but was in the interests
of the nancial sector, with government also inuenced
by a moral argument that they had the duty to restore the
value of the pound as many other countries had used it as
a reserve currency and trusted GB to maintain its value.
[26] Ravenhill 2005, pp. 722, 177204
[27] Rothermund 1996, pp. 67
[28] Ravenhill 2005, pp. 912, 177204

[38] Reinhart 2010, pp. 208212

[39] Neil C. Hughes (1 July 2005). A Trade War with China.
Foreign Aairs. Retrieved 27 December 2010.
[40] Michael P. Dooley, David Folkerts-Landau, Peter Garber (September 2003). An Essay on the Revived Bretton
Woods System. National Bureau of Economic Research.
[41] Michael P. Dooley, David Folkerts-Landau, Peter Garber
(February 2009). Bretton Woods II Still Denes the International Monetary System. National Bureau of Economic Research.
[42] Brown 2010, p. 229
[43] Tim Geithner (6 October 2010). Treasury Secretary
Geithner on IMF, World Bank Annual Meetings. United
States Department of the Treasury. Retrieved 27 December 2010.
[44] Ted Truman (6 March 2009). Message for the G20:
SDR Are Your Best Answer. Voxeu.org. Retrieved 27
December 2010.
[45] Martin Wolf (29 September 2010). Currencies clash in
new age of beggar-my-neighbour. The Financial Times.
Retrieved 29 September 2010.
[46] Tim Webb (28 September 2010). World gripped by 'international currency war'". London: The Guardian. Retrieved 27 December 2010.
[47] Jonathan Wheatley in So Paulo and Peter Garnham in
London (27 September 2010). Brazil in 'currency war'
alert. The Financial Times. Retrieved 29 September
2010.

[29] Mundell 2000, p. 284

[30] Ahamed 2009, esp chp1; pp. 240, 319321 ; chp 111
[31] Olivier Accominotti (23 April 2011). Chinas Syndrome:
The dollar trap in historical perspective. Voxeu.org.
Retrieved 27 April 2011.
[32] Gavyn Davies (3 February 2013). Who is afraid of currency wars?". The Financial Times. Retrieved 4 February
2013.
[33] Ravenhill 2005, pp. 1215, 177204
[34] Though a few commentators have asserted the Nixon
shock was in part an act of currency war, and also the pressure exerted by the United States in the months leading up
to the Plaza accords.
[35] Though developing economies were encouraged to pursue
export led growth see Washington Consensus.
[36] Some had been devaluing from as early as the 1980s, but
it was only after 1999 that it became common, with the
developing world as a whole running a CA surplus instead
of a decit from 1999. (e.g. see Wolf (2009) p31 39)
[37] There were exceptions to this: Kenneth Rogo and
Maurice Obstfeld began warning that the developing
record imbalances was a major issue from as early as
2001, joined by Nouriel Roubini in 2004.

[48] Alan Beattie (27 September 2010). Hostilities escalate

to hidden currency war. The Financial Times. Retrieved
29 September 2010.
[49] Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (29 September 2010). Capital
controls eyed as global currency wars escalate. London:
The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 29 September 2010.
[50] West inates EM 'super bubble'. The Financial Times. 29
September 2010. Retrieved 29 September 2010.
[51] Russell Hotten (7 October 2010). Currency wars
threaten global economic recovery. BBC. Retrieved 17
November 2010.
[52] Jim O'Neill (economist) (21 November 2010). Time to
end the myth of currency wars. The Financial Times.
Retrieved 14 January 2011.
[53] Currency Tensions May Be Curbed With IMF Help,
Strauss-Kahn Says. Bloomberg L.P. 9 October 2010.
Retrieved 27 December 2010.
[54] Possible currency war to hamper int'l economy recovery. xinhua. 17 October 2010. Retrieved 27 December
2010.
[55] Bagchi, Indrani (14 November 2010). US-China currency war a power struggle. The Times of India. Retrieved 27 December 2010.

10

NOTES AND CITATIONS

[56] James Mackintosh (27 September 2010). Deep pockets

support Chinas forex politics. The Financial Times. Retrieved 11 October 2010.

[73] Lindsay Whipp (4 August 2011). Japan intervenes to

force down yen. The Financial Times. Retrieved 4 August 2011.

[57] Whos winning the currency wars?". Reuters. 11 October 2010. Retrieved 9 January 2011.

[74] Dilma Rousse (21 September 2011). 2011 opening

Satement by Dilma Rousse to the UN General Assembly. United Nations. Retrieved 27 September 2011.

[58] Martin Wolf (5 October 2010). How to ght the currency wars with stubborn China. The Financial Times.
Retrieved 6 October 2010.
[59] Daniel Gros (23 September 2010). How to Level the
Capital Playing Field in the Game with China. CEPS.
Retrieved 6 October 2010.
[60] Huang classes the conicting opinions over the relative
valuations of the US dollar and Japanese yen in the 1980s
as a currency war, though the label was not widely used
for that period.
[61] Yiping Huang (19 October 2010). A currency war the
US cannot win. Voxeu.org. Retrieved 27 December
2010.
[62] Chris Giles, Alan Beattie and Christian Oliver in Seoul
(12 November 2010). G20 shuns US on trade and currencies. The Financial Times. Retrieved 12 November
2010.
[63] EVAN RAMSTAD (19 November 2010). U.S. Gets Rebued at Divided Summit. The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 13 November 2010.
[64] Mohamed A. El-Erian (17 November 2010). Three Reasons Global Talks Hit Dead End: Mohamed A. El-Erian.
Bloomberg L.P. Retrieved 19 November 2010.
[65] Michael Forsythe and Julianna Goldman (12 November
2010). Obama Sharpens Yuan Criticism After G-20 Nations Let China O the Hook. Bloomberg L.P. Retrieved
19 November 2010.
[66] Andrew Walker and other BBC sta (12 November
2010). G20 to tackle US-China currency concerns.
BBC. Retrieved 17 November 2010.
[67] Currency Wars Retreat as Fighting Ination Makes
Emerging Markets Winners. Bloomberg L.P. 28 February 2011. Retrieved 12 April 2010.
[68] Steve Johnson (6 March 2011). Currency war deemned
over. The Financial Times. Retrieved 13 May 2011.
[69] Stefan Wagstyl (13 April 2011). Currency wars fade as
ination hits emerging world. The Financial Times. Retrieved 16 April 2011.

[75] Dilma Rousse (21 September 2011). Time to end the

Currency War / Brazil will ght back against the currency manipulators. The Financial Times. Retrieved 27
September 2011.
[76] Samantha Pearson (15 March 2012). Brazil launches
fresh 'currency war' oensive. Financial Times. Retrieved 23 March 2012.
[77] Alan Beattie and Richard McGregor (17 June 2012).
Temperature drops in currency wars for G20. The Financial Times. Retrieved 18 June 2012.
[78] Jens Weidmann warns of currency war risk. Reuters
(The Daily Telegraph). 21 January 2013. Retrieved 28
January 2013.
[79] Je Black & Zoe Schneeweiss (28 January 2013). Yi
Warns on Currency Wars as Yuan Close to 'Equilibrium".
Bloomberg L.P. Retrieved 29 January 2013.
[80] Michael Steen and Alice Ross (7 February 2013). Draghi
move fuels currency war fears. The Financial Times. Retrieved 9 February 2013.
[81] Robin Harding (13 February 2013). Currency farce reveals US-Japan dispute. The Financial Times. Retrieved
14 February 2013.
[82] Kelley Holland (24 January 2013). Currency War? Not
Just Yet, Expert Says. CNBC. Retrieved 28 January
2013.
[83] Mohamed A. El-Erian (24 January 2013). Currency
war could cause lasting damage to world economy. The
Guardian. Retrieved 28 January 2013.
[84] Peter Koy (24 January 2013). The Surprising Upside to
Japans 'Currency War'". Bloomberg L.P. Retrieved 28
January 2013.
[85] Niall Ferguson (25 January 2013). Currency wars are
best fought quietly. The Financial Times. Retrieved 28
January 2013.

[70] Alan Beattie (13 May 2011). TBig guns mued as currency wars enter a lull. The Financial Times. Retrieved
13 May 2011.

[86] Alice Ross in London, Charles Clover in Moscow and

Robin Harding in Washington (15 February 2013). G20
nance chiefs take heat o Japan. The Financial Times.
Retrieved 17 February 2013.

[71] Chris Giles and John Paul Rathbone (7 July 2011).

Currecny wars not over, says Brazil. The Financial
Times. Retrieved 7 May 2011.

[87] Kristine Aquino & Candice Zachariahs (20 February

2013). Currency Rhetoric Heats Up as Wheeler Warns
on Kiwi. Bloomberg L.P. Retrieved 24 February 2013.

[72] Shamim Adam (4 August 2011). Currency Intervention

Revived as Odds of Federal Reserve Easing Escalate.
Bloomberg L.P. Retrieved 4 August 2011.

[88] Peter Koy (4 March 2013). Currency War Turns Stimulus War as Brazil Surrenders. Bloomberg L.P. Retrieved
7 March 2013.

11

[89] Humayun Shahryar (19 February 2013). Guest post: [106] McGregor, Richard (25 September 2007). Chinese buy
Forget currency wars, we are in the middle of a trade war.
into conspiracy theory. Retrieved 29 March 2009.
The Financial Times. Retrieved 2013-03-97. Check date
[107] John Cooley (2008). Currency Wars. Constable. ISBN
values in: |accessdate= (help)
978-1-84529-369-7.
[90] Louisa Peacock (2 March 2013). Jens China 'fully prepared' for currency war. The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved [108] Jim Rickards (2011). Currency Wars: The Making of the
Next Global Crisis. suman Portfolio/Penguin. ISBN 9782013-03-97. Check date values in: |accessdate= (help)
1-59184-449-5.
[91] Peter Garnham (16 January 2013). Currency wars: a
[109] http://www.publishersweekly.com/9781591844495 Rehandy guide. Euromoney.
view of Currency Wars, Publishers Weekly. 24 October
[92] James Mackintosh (1 November 2013). Germany feels
2011
US ire over war on currencies. The Financial Times. Retrieved 11 November 2013.
[110] http://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/
james-rickards/currency-wars-next-global-crisis/
[93] Emma Charlton & John Detrixhe (11 November 2013).
Kirkus Reviews: Currency Wars: The Making of the
Race to Bottom Resumes as Central Bankers Ease Anew:
Next Global Crisis, 15 October 2011.
Currencies. Bloomberg L.P. Retrieved 11 November
2013.
[111] Shigru Akita and Nicholas J. White (2009). The International Order of Asia in the 1930s and 1950s. Ashgate. p.
[94] John Plender (October 12, 2014).
Expect more
284. ISBN 0-7546-5341-2.
currency-war rhetoric ahead. The Financial Times. Retrieved October 25, 2014. (registration required (help)).
[95] David Goodman, Lucy Meakin and Ye Xie (2014-10-22).
Currency Wars Evolve With Goal of Avoiding Deation. Bloomberg News. Retrieved 2014-10-25.
[96] David Wessel (2014-09-15). The Return of the Currency
Wars. Brookings Institution. Retrieved 2014-10-25.

7 References
Liaquat Ahamed (2009). Lords of Finance. WindMill Books. ISBN 978-0-09-949308-2.

[97] Editorial (23 Jan 2015). No need for hostilities in the

phoney currency war ((registration required) ). Financial
Times. Retrieved 12 Feb 2015.

Gordon Brown (2010). Beyond the Crash. Simon &

Schuster. ISBN 978-0-85720-285-7.

[98] David Keohane (5 Feb 2015). All currency war, all the
time ((registration required) ). Financial Times. Retrieved 12 Feb 2015.

Michael C. Burda and Charles Wyplosz (2005).

Macroeconomics: A European Text, 4th edition.
Oxford University Press. ISBN 0-19-926496-1.

[99] Alan Beattie (11 October 2010). G20 currency st ght

rolls into town. The Financial Times. Retrieved 13 October 2010.

Richard N. Cooper (1971). Currency devaluation in

developing countries. Princeton University Press.

[100] Not all economists agree that further expansionary policy

would help even if it is co-ordinated, some fear it would
cause excess ination.
[101] Jonathan Lynn (14 October 2010). UPDATE 2Currency war risk threatens investment recovery-UN.
Reuters. Retrieved 21 April 2011.
[102] Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (10 October 2010). Currency
wars are necessary if all else fails. London: The Daily
Telegraph. Retrieved 13 October 2010.
[103] Scott Lanman (19 November 2010). Bernanke Takes
Defense of Monetary Stimulus Abroad, Turns Tables on
China. Bloomberg L.P. Retrieved 29 November 2010.

Jonathan Kirshner, ed. (2002). Monetary Orders:

Ambiguous Economics, Ubiquitous Politics. Cornell
University Press. ISBN 0-8014-8840-0.
Robert A. Mundell and Armand Clesse (2000). The
Euro as a stabilizer in the international economic.
Springer. ISBN 0-7923-7755-9.
James R Owen (2005). Currency devaluation and
emerging economy export demand. Ashgate Publishing. ISBN 0-7546-3963-0.

[104] Barry Eichengreen and Douglas Irwin (3 July 2009). The

Slide to Protectionism in the Great Depression: Who Succumbed and Why?". NBER. Dartmouth College. Retrieved 4 February 2013.

John Ravenhill (editor) , Eirc Helleiner, Louis W

Pauly, et al (2005). Global Political Economy.
Oxford University Press. ISBN 0-19-926584-4.

[105] Neither the book nor its sequel Currency War 2 are available yet in English, but are best sellers in China and South
East Asia.

Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogo (2010). This

Time Is Dierent: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.
Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-19-926584-4.

12

Dietmar Rothermund (1996). The Global impact of

the Great Depression 19291939. Routledge. ISBN
0-415-11819-0.
John Sloman (2004). Economics. Prentice Hall.
ISBN 0-7450-1333-3.
Paul Wilmott (2007). Paul Wilmott Introduces
Quantitative Finance. Wiley. ISBN 0-470-319585.
Martin Wolf (2009). Fixing Global Finance. Yale
University Press. ISBN 0-300-14277-3.

External links
Global economy: Going head to head article showing various international perspectives (Financial
Times, October 2010)
Data visualization from OECD, to see how imbalances have developed since 1990, select 'Current account imbalances on the stories tab, then move the
date slider. ( OECD 2010 )
Why Chinas exchange rate is a red herring alternative view by the chairman of Intelligence Capital, Eswar Prasad, suggesting those advocating for
China to appreciate are misguided (VoxEU, April
2010).
Q. What is a 'currency war'? view from a journalist in Korea, the hosts of the November 2010 G20
summit. (Korea Joongang, October 2010)
Brazils Currency wars a 'real' problem introductory article from a South American magazine
(SoundsandColours.com, October 2010)
Whats the currency war about? introductory article
from the BBC (October 2010)

EXTERNAL LINKS

13

Text and image sources, contributors, and licenses

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Currency war Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency%20war?oldid=648184912 Contributors: Edward, Gracefool, Robert Brockway, R. S. Shaw, SpeedyGonsales, Duplode, Tabletop, Mandarax, Rjwilmsi, Ground Zero, Atif.hussain, Benlisquare, Gaius Cornelius,
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