INDIA RESEARCH

INITIATING COVERAGE
REAL ESTATE

21 July 2023

Nexus Select Trust

A proxy to India’s consumption story

Biplab Debbarma, CFA

+91 22 6911 3418
biplab.debbarma@antiquelimited.com
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 21 July 2023 | 1

Reco : BUY INITIATING COVERAGE

CMP
Target Price
: INR 117
: INR 131
Nexus Select Trust
Return : 13% A proxy to India’s consumption story
Yield : 6.9% Nexus Select Trust (NXST) is India's first retail focused REIT offering an
opportunity to capitalize on the consumption tailwinds of India's growing middle
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https://asiamoney.com/brokers class and rapid urbanization. With a robust portfolio of 17 prime urban
https://asiamoney.com/brokers consumption centers (UCCs) measuring 9.18 mn sq. ft. of leasable area spanning
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https://asiamoney.com/brokers benefits from the increasing penetration of organized retail. The NXST portfolio
demonstrates exceptional stability, boasting a remarkable committed
occupancy rate of 96.2% while also showcasing promising prospects for
embedded growth. NEXUS has strategically positioned itself to capitalize on
Biplab Debbarma, CFA robust organic growth by leveraging a range of key factors including contractual
+91 22 6911 3418
biplab.debbarma@antiquelimited.com
rent escalations, amplified tenant sales driving higher turnover rentals, re-
leasing opportunities at elevated market rent, and effective lease-up strategies
for vacant spaces. With these 17 marquee UCCs having a well-diversified tenant
base of 1,044 domestic and international brands spread across 2,893 stores,
Market data we expect NXST to be a proxy to India's urban consumption story and to
Sensex : 67,572 continue on its steady consumption and NOI growth of >8% CAGR.
Sector : Real Estate Consequently, the NXST portfolio is expected to generate healthy Net Operating
Market Cap (INR bn) : 176.8 Income (NOI) of INR 16.4 bn in FY24E and experience a steady organic growth
Market Cap (USD bn) : 2.156 of 8% CAGR in NOI between FY24E and FY26E; net distributable cash flow
O/S Shares (mn) : 1,515.0
(NDCF) of INR 12.1 bn in FY24E and 8% CAGR in NDCF between FY24E and
52-wk HI/LO (INR) : 119/102
FY26E. We initiate coverage on the stock with BUY rating and a target price of
Avg. Daily Vol ('000) : 581
INR 131, translating to a return of 13% and annual yield of 6.9% over the next
12 months.
Bloomberg : NXST IN
Source: Bloomberg A pure play proxy for urban consumption growth in India
Valuation India is one of the world's fastest growing consumption-led major economies (consumption
FY23 FY24e FY25e accounted for ~60% of India's GDP in FY22). Consumption-led growth is expected to play
EPS (INR) 303.0 5.6 6.5 out over the long term in India driven by (1) The growing middle class (estimated to represent
P/E (x) 0.4 20.9 17.9 ~79.0% of households by FY30); (2) Rising urbanization with an urban population mix from
P/BV (x) 0.1 1.2 1.2 35% in CY21 to 41% in CY30E; (3) Rising nuclearization, coupled with tend to result in strong
EV/EBITDA (x) 16.3 13.8 12.7 demand growth in cities; and (4) Favorable demographic growth with 74% of the population
EV/Sales (x) 11.65 9.88 9.24
below 45 years age (CY21) and. In our view, retail malls remain some of the best proxies to
play the consumption growth in urban areas in India, which is a structural mega trend.
Source: Bloomberg
Marquee assets in prime in-fill locations, creating high entry barriers
Returns (%)
1m 3m 6m 12m NXST's 17 high-end UCCs are situated in prime city-centric in-fill locations on huge land
Absolute 10 - - - parcels that are very difficult to emulate due to the lack of availability of large land parcels
Relative 4 - - - in dense city centers, intricate land acquisition processes, lengthy development timelines, and
Source: Bloomberg
capital-intensive business model. Additionally, specialized expertise is necessary to effectively
stabilize such assets with marquee tenants.
Shareholding pattern
Strong embedded growth with inflation-hedged cash flows
Sponsor : 45% Nexus is well-positioned for strong organic growth driven by a combination of contracted rent
Public : 55% escalations, higher turnover rentals (linked to consumption growth), re-leasing at higher market
Others : 0% rates (mark-to-market), and successfully filling vacant areas. Whereas the fixed component is
Source: Bloomberg
in the form of minimum guarantee and in-built rental escalation, providing stable cash flow,
the variable component is linked to tenant turnover/ consumption, providing an upside linked
Price performance vs Nifty to consumption growth in the mall.
125
Investment Summary
115
We are structurally positive on UCCs leading the organized urban consumption growth story.
105 With its strong business model and diverse portfolio of assets, NXST offers an attractive
opportunity to ride the consumption growth in India while also serving as a natural hedge
95
May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 against inflation. At the current market price, NXST offers a return of 13% and an annual
Nexus Select Trust NIFTY
yield of >7%. We value the company using DCF method (11.5% discounting factor) and 8%
Source: Bloomberg Indexed to 100
cap rate on NOI. Initiate with BUY.
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 21 July 2023 | 2

Key Business & Growth Drivers

Nexus Select Trust Portfolio: Presence across key consumption hubs
NXST owns and manages 17 high-quality international-standard urban consumption centers
(malls) in prime locations across 14 cities with a total leasable area of 9.85 mn sq. ft. (NXST's
share is 9.18 mn sq. ft.) with committed occupancy of 96.2% and average rental of INR
120.8/sq. ft./mth. In addition to the UCCs, the portfolio has three offices and two hotel assets.

Exhibit 1: NEXUS portfolio value as on 31st Dec’22

Urban consumption centres TLA* NXST share Committed In-place rent
(mn sq.ft) (mn sqft) occupancy (%) (INR/sq.ft/mth) WALE (Yrs)
Select Citywalk, Delhi 0.51 0.51 98.8% 423 4.9
Nexus Elante, Chandigarh 1.25 1.25 99.4% 167 5.5
Nexus Seawoods, Navi Mumbai 0.97 0.97 99.0% 124 7.1
Nexus Ahmedabad One, Ahmedabad 0.89 0.88 96.4% 119 6.0
Nexus Hyderabad, Hyderabad 0.83 0.83 98.8% 108 4.2
Nexus Koramangala, Bengaluru 0.31 0.30 97.8% 159 3.3
Nexus Vijaya, Chennai 0.65 0.65 99.4% 94 4.2
Nexus Westend, Pune 0.44 0.44 95.9% 116 7.8
Nexus Esplanade, Bhubaneswar 0.42 0.42 97.0% 129 7.7
Nexus Amritsar, Amritsar 0.54 0.54 97.2% 71 6.7
Nexus Shantiniketan, Bengaluru 0.63 0.41 97.3% 85 6.9
Nexus Whitefield, Bengaluru 0.31 0.31 94.7% 77 4.7
Nexus Celebration, Udaipur 0.40 0.40 94.6% 60 5.0
Fiza by Nexus, Mangalore 0.71 0.49 71.7% 46 5.1
Nexus Centre City, Mysore 0.32 0.33 97.8% 55 6.7
Nexus Indore Central, Indore 0.24 0.24 90.4% 65 13.7
Portfolio Investment
Treasure Island, Indore 0.43 0.21 96.8% 65 5.1
Subtotal Urban Consumption Centres 9.85 9.18 96.2% 120.8 5.7
Offices TLA Office In-place rent WALE
(mn sqft) occupancy (INR/sq.ft/mth) (Yrs)
Westend Icon Offices 0.98 74.9% 80 3.5
Vijaya Office 0.19 100.0% 51 3.2
Elante Office 0.09 75.1% 99 4.6
Total offices 1.26 78.7% 75 3.6
Hotels Total Keys Hotel Occupancy ARR
Hyatt Regency Chandigarh 211.00 66.2% 9,450
Oakwood Residences, Benagluru 143.00 73.0% 6,300
Total offices 354 69.0%
Hotels Capacity (MW)
Karnataka Solar Power 15.00
Total Portfolio 100%
Source: Company, Antique; *TLA : total leasable area
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 21 July 2023 | 3

NXST REIT is a proxy for India's urban consumption growth

India is one of the fastest growing consumption-led major economies
India is among the fastest-growing major economies globally, and consumption is a key
driver of its economy. Consumption accounted for ~60% of India's GDP in FY22 and registered
a CAGR of 10% over CY14-21. The consumption mega trend in India is propelled by a
relatively young population (over 74% of India's population is under 45 years) and a growing
middle class (14.8% CAGR over FY10-20).
India has experienced a rapid increase in urbanization over the past 20 years, with people
moving from rural to urban areas in search of better economic opportunities and employment
outside of agriculture. The urban population has grown at a rate of 2.5% per year, reaching
493 mn in CY21. This trend is expected to continue, with urban areas predicted to house
50% of India's population by CY50, up from 35% in 2021.

Exhibit 2: Consumption as a % of GDP (CY21) Exhibit 3: Consumption growth (CAGR CY14-21)

70% 12%

60%
10%

50%
8%
40%
6%
30%
4%
20%

2%
59.6%

55.7%

38.9%

10.0%
10%

8.5%

4.1%
0% 0%
India World China India China USA
Source: Company, Antique Source: Company, Antique

Exhibit 4: Rising middle class Exhibit 5: Rising urbanization

100% 0.5% 1.3% 3.0% 900 60%

50%
90% 24% 800
50%
41%

80% 700
35%

70%
600 40%
60% 73%
28%

79% 500
50% 30%
400
40%
300 20%
30%
20% 200
10%
10% 100
76% 26% 18% 293 493 601 819
0% 0 0%
FY10 FY20 FY30e CY00 CY21 CY30e CY50e
<USD5k USD5k-50k USD50k+ Urban Population (mn) % urbanization
Source: Company, Antique Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 21 July 2023 | 4

Low penetration of organized retail in India

Urbanization, nuclearization, and high-income households are driving increasing discretionary
spending such as consumption of non-essential products and services, including fashion and
accessories, jewelry, electronics, beauty and luxury products, etc. Discretionary retail
consumption, which grew at 11.5% CAGR over FY15-20 is expected to grow faster at 15.0%
CAGR over FY22-25. This increase in discretionary spending is expected to disproportionately
benefit organized retail players such as Nexus Select Trust and Phoenix Mills.

Exhibit 6: India's consumption basket (USD billion)

India's Consumption Basket (US$ Billion)

1278

979
836

401
474 264
258
150
342 538 636 757

FY 15 FY 20 FY 22 FY 25E
Need Based Retail Discretionary Retail Services
Source: Company, Antique

The organized retail market in India accounts for a mere 13% of the total retail market as of
FY22, this is very low when compared to other countries such as USA - 86%, UK - 81%, and
China - 42%. The segment is expected to grow to 20% by FY25 which shows that there is a lot
of potential for growth in the market which NXST can tap in the future. Both the online as well
as brick and mortar model are showing promising results in terms of growth and are intended
to grow even further down the road. The online retail segment in India is at a nascent stage
and growth was at approximately 4.5% in FY20, but with the current trends and increasing
demand, it is expected to grow at 26.4% CAGR from FY22 to FY25 whereas the brick-and-
mortar retail segment had a share of 7.3% in FY22 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of
23.1% until FY25.

Exhibit 7: Organized retail penetration % (CY21)

Organized retail penetration % (CY21)
86%

81%

81%

46%

42%

13%

USA UK Australia Thailand China India

Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 21 July 2023 | 5

Exhibit 8: India has one of the lowest per capita stocks of retail malls
30 9000

7990
8000
25
7000

20 6000

5000
15
4000

10 3000

16.8 1001

981
840

0.04 60
2000

9.0 232
12.3 67
5

24.03

12.5

0.69
1000

0 0
US Italy U.K. Singapore Australia China India
per capita stock (sq.ft.) Stocks (mn sq.ft.)
Source: Company, Antique

Exhibit 9: Overall retail market split

Overall Retail Market Split %
1.20% 4.50% 5.90%
7.10% 9.20%
7.40% 7.30%
10.60%
91.70%

88.10%

86.80%

80.10%
FY 15 FY 20 FY 22E FY 25E
Unorganized Retail Brick and Mortar Online Retailer
Source: Company, Antique

As the owner of India's largest UCC platform with a leading market presence in 14 major
cities across the country, NXST is well-positioned to capitalize on the consumption growth
driven by these mega trends.
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 21 July 2023 | 6

Largest platform of marquee assets with presence across key

consumption hubs
NXST owns 17 high-quality UCCs of 9.85 mn sq. ft. (NXST's share is 9.18 mn sq. ft.), making
it India's largest retail platform. Its pan-India portfolio is well-diversified and strategically
located in prime in-fill areas of these 14 cities, which accounted for 30% of India's discretionary
retail spending in FY20. These cities also had an average population CAGR that was ~225
bps higher than the national average from FY11-21.
Some of the assets are the largest UCCs in their respective sub-markets, serving consumers
from multiple cities. For e.g., Select Citywalk, Delhi is among India's most successful UCC with
the highest tenant sale per sq. ft. Some of these UCCs serve as regional shopping centers; for
e.g., Nexus Elante in Chandigarh is the largest UCC in the Punjab region, and Nexus
Ahmedabad One serves consumers from Ahmedabad and its surrounding satellite towns.

Exhibit 10: NXST is India’s largest owner of operational retail malls

12 17 18

16
10 14
14

8 12
10
10
6 8
8
6 66
4 6
44
3 4
2
2
9.8 8.8 4 4 3.1
0 0
Nexus Select Trust Phoenix Mills DLF Virtuous mall Lulu group
Completed Area (mn sqft) # of UCCs # of cities
Source: Company, Antique

NXST owns 17 high-quality The quality and scale of NXST' portfolio, coupled with its industry-leading active asset
UCCs of 9.85 mn sq. ft., management, makes it a preferred option for domestic and multinational retailers and
making it India's largest consumers. The company owns two hotels managed by global operators and three office
retail platform assets leased by leading multinationals, which drive incremental footfalls and tenant sales. It
has maintained high levels of committed occupancy and witnessed robust tenant sales growth
(11% CAGR in FY18-20).
Strong brand partnership
n The company has strong relations with key retailers in India and as a result, 74.7% of its
leased space over FY20-9MFY23 was done so to existing tenants, which is why same-
store committed occupancy levels have remained high and stable.
n The top ten tenants contribute only 20.2% of gross rentals, and no single tenant contributed
more than 2.8% in the month ended December 31, 2022.
n Tenant expansion options: Having presence in 14 major cities across the country makes it
easier for the tenants to choose NXST as their business partner as not only does it help
them take advantage of the high-quality assets and brand name but also gives them the
option to expand their presence across the country. Many of the historically online-only
brands have been coming up with omni-channel strategies and have decided to open
up their physical stores in one of NXST's UCC.
n High occupancy, premium rents, and strong tenant sales growth: The premium and high-
quality assets along with consumer amenities and industry leading management makes
the company the preferred choice for many retailers. Owing to this, NXST has seen high
levels of same-store occupancy across its portfolio as high as 93.9% as of June 30, 2022.
This further leads to a premium rent that the retailers are willing to pay as it also boosts
tenant sales which grew at a CAGR of 11.0% between FY8 to FY20.
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 21 July 2023 | 7

Diversified tenant base

NXST's portfolio has a diverse mix of tenants (1,044 brands) across different categories
including hypermarket, apparel and accessories, entertainment, and F&B. The company
management actively evaluates its tenant mix and seeks to churn out the underperforming
brands and replace them which new ones. They are also focusing on adding omni-channel
retailers such as Nykaa, Mamaearth, and Lenskart to provide a better shopping experience
to their customers. NXST also becomes the first choice for many retailers entering India and
seeking to achieve a pan-India presence. Several international and domestic brands including
Zara, Massimo Dutti, and Burger King, amongst others, have opened their first few stores at
one of the company's UCCs.

Exhibit 11:Top Ten Tenants by gross rentals

No. of Stores Area (mn sq. ft.) Gross Rentals (%) Wale (years) Trade Categories

Lifestyle 8 0.44 2.8% 8.8 Departmental Store

Cinepolis 6 0.36 2.6% 17.8 Entertainment
PVR Cinemas 8 0.50 2.5% 7.0 Entertainment
Westside 9 0.29 2.1% 7.0 Apparel and Accessories
Zara 3 0.12 2.0% 7.5 Apparel and Accessories
Shoppers Stop 5 0.28 1.8% 15.1 Departmental Store
Max 14 0.23 1.7% 6.4 Apparel and Accessories
Smart Bazaar 6 0.31 1.6% 10.8 Hypermarket
Swedish Apparel Retailer 8 0.23 1.6% 21.9 Apparel and Accessories
Reliance Trends 12 0.22 1.5% 5.1 Apparel and Accessories
Total/Average of top ten tenants 79 2.98 20.2% 10.7
Source: Company, Antique

Exhibit 12: Gross rentals - Tenant wise split Exhibit 13: Gross rentals - Anchor vs. in-line tenant split
4 9 4
2 1 Apparel & accessories
3
F&B
5 31
Footwear & fitness
6 40 12
Entertainment
Departmental stores
7 Beauty & personal care
Electronics
Hypermarket
9
Homeware
Jewellery 45
10 13 Others Anchor In-line F&B Entertainment Kiosk & others
Source: Company, Antique Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 21 July 2023 | 8

Tenant improvement (TI) capital expenditure

In India, leases for grade A UCCs are typically on a "warm shell" basis, meaning landlords
only incur TI capex of 3.0% to 5.0% of NOI. In comparison, tenants incur significant costs,
often equivalent to four to five years of rent. This results in tenant "stickiness" and enhances
NOI to cash flow conversion for UCCs in India. This is a favorable comparison to other
markets where landlords are expected to incur a significant TI capex to attract and retain
tenants.

Exhibit 15: Brands opening their first few stores in India in a

Exhibit 14: TI capex as % of NOI Nexus UCC
15-20%

3-5%

India USA
Source: Company, Antique Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 21 July 2023 | 9

Assets in prime in-fill locations, leading to high entry barriers for competition
Prime in-fill locations; difficult to replicate
n NXST's 17 grade A UCCs are strategically located in prime in-fill locations across 14
cities including Delhi, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Chennai, Navi Mumbai (MMR), Pune,
Ahmedabad, and other top Tier II cities. These cities constituted approximately 30% of
India's total discretionary spending in FY20. The locations NXST chooses and operates in
are in close proximity to residential areas and are well connected to key transport and
residential areas, which makes them accessible to the public.
l Select Citywalk, one of the flagships from its portfolio, is located in an affluent residential
catchment area of Saket in South Delhi.
NXST's 17 grade A UCCs l Nexus Elante is located in the city center of Chandigarh, the largest consumption hub
are strategically located in across the neighboring North Indian states of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh,
prime in-fill locations and Punjab.
across 14 cities including l Nexus Hyderabad is located in the Cyberabad region, the technology hub of
Delhi, Bengaluru, Hyderabad which is India's third largest metropolitan city by area.
Hyderabad, Chennai, Navi
Mumbai (MMR), Pune, l Nexus Koramangala is located in Koramangala, a wealthy residential catchment
Ahmedabad, and other top and the epicenter of Bengaluru's technology industry and is the first grade A UCC to
Tier II cities open in Southern India.
n In India, developing large retail assets is challenging due to limited availability of land,
long gestation periods, large upfront capital investment and specialized capabilities
required to stabilize large UCCs projects. Even after development, these assets require
expertise in leasing, operations, retailer management, marketing, and promotion, which
only a few operators in India possess. Presence of any existing UCCs in the primary
catchment areas further deters new investment or competition in the sub-market.
Attractive demand—Supply fundamentals leading to a favorable rental structure
n Demand for high-quality retail space in India is strong, with both domestic and international
brands looking to establish and expand their presence in the country. These brands
when trying to expand their reach in the country often prefer UCCs because of the limited
supply of high-quality retail space in the country. As of December 31, 2021 India had
only 100 grade A UCCs which is very low when compared to other major economies.
This is bound to increase in order to fulfil demand, as alongside major brands expanding
their reach, many historically online-only brands have pivoted towards an omni-channel
strategy to provide an immersive shopping experience to customers.

Exhibit 16: Tenant sales (consumption) trend Exhibit 17: Annual leasing trend
90 0.8 1.4
62%

80
0.6 1.2
70
23%

0.4 1.0
60
0.9
9%

50 0.2 0.8

40 0 0.6
30
-0.2 0.4
37 -53%

20
-0.4 0.2
10
0.5

1.0

1.2

0.5

1.2
59

73

79

60

- -0.6 -
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Consumption (INR bn) Growth % Annual leasing (mn sqft) Avg leasing (mn sqft)
Source: Company, Antique Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 21 July 2023 | 10

The UCC business model, intrinsically a natural hedge against inflation

NXST has an in-built robust framework for organic growth by capitalizing on a combination
of contractual rent escalations, increased tenant sales resulting in higher turnover rentals, and
the strategic re-leasing of properties at higher marked-to-market rent.
n Minimum guarantee rent with contracted rent escalations: NXST broadly has three
categories in terms of leases—three to nine-year leases for in-line tenants, nine to twenty-
five year leases for anchor tenants, and five to nine-year leases for office tenants. A
majority of the tenants provide minimum guaranteed (MG) rentals. As of 3QFY23, 95.5%
of the tenant leases provide for MG with typical contractual rent escalations of 12% to
15% over a period of three to five years.
n Tenant sales—linked to turnover rent provides an upside: In addition to the minimum
guaranteed rentals, NXST has a turnover share model that ties rent to the sales generated
by tenants, allowing it to benefit from increased tenant sales. This helps NXST capitalize
on consumption growth and enhance its revenue growth potential. As of Dec'22, ~88.3%
In addition to the minimum
of the leases included turnover rental agreements. In FY22, ~9% of the total revenue from
guaranteed rentals, NXST
operations came from the revenue sharing component.
has a turnover share
model that ties rent to the n Mark-to-market opportunity: The average monthly rent for NXST's UCCs is INR 122/sq.
sales generated by ft./mth, while the current market rent stands at INR 142/sq. ft./mth, indicating a mark-to-
tenants, allowing it to market potential of 16%, which can drive growth going ahead.
benefit from increased n Capitalizing on organic growth opportunities: The company expects 89.4% of the projected
tenant sales increase in NOI will result because of factors such as contractual rent escalations, increased
tenant sales leading to higher turnover rental, re-leasing at higher market rents, and
leasing up vacant areas. In addition, the company has been proactively doing asset
management to drive growth in value by identifying the underperforming brands and
stores that are on the verge of lease expiry and replacing them with new ones in order to
minimize downtime between successive leases. The company estimates that an additional
2.9 mn sq. ft. of the portfolio will be re-leased at a potential 20.8% mark-to-market value
for leases expiring between 4QFY23 until FY27. For the projected period, tenant sales
are expected to grow at an average rate of 6.0% to 10.0%, which would indirectly help
in increasing the revenue generated through rents.

Exhibit 18: Rental structure split (as of Dec'22) Exhibit 19: Head room for significant mark-to-market (as of Dec'22)
1.9% In-place Rent vs Market Rent as of December 31,2022
4.5%
(INR psf/Month)
11.7%

89.1% 122.5 142.2

MG + TR Pure MG Pure TR Others In-place Rent Market Rent

Source: Company, Antique; Note: MG is Minimum Guarantee, TR is Turnover Rentals Source: Company, Antique Note: In-place rent/market rent in INR/sq. ft./mth
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 21 July 2023 | 11

Renowned sponsor with global expertise and local knowledge

n NXST is sponsored by a portfolio company of Blackstone real estate funds (Blackstone).
Blackstone is one of the world's leading investment firms with USD 975 billion of assets
under management as on December 31, 2022, across multiple alternate asset classes
including real estate, private equity, infrastructure, lifesciences, growth equity, credit,
real assets, and secondary funds, all on a global basis.
n Blackstone is a global leader in real estate investing with USD 326 billion of assets under
management with its portfolio spread across 1,475 mn sq. ft. of leasable area as on
NXST is sponsored by December 31, 2022. Blackstone's real estate business operates as one globally integrated
Blackstone, a global leader business with over 800 real estate professionals globally as on December 31, 2022 and
in real estate investing has investments in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. The company has extensive experience
with USD 326 bn in AUM in building or rebuilding leading companies and taking them public, one such example
and a portfolio spread is the Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
across 1,475 mn sq. ft. of
leasable area n Blackstone's real estate funds globally own and operate over 210 mn sq. ft., 55 mn sq.
ft., and 1,125 mn sq. ft. of office, retail, and logistics space respectively as on December
31, 2022. It is one of India's largest retail and warehousing landlords. The company
has more than 15 years of operating experience in India and was also a
participant in India's first two REITs.

Nexus REIT vs. Phoenix Mills

n Nexus Select Trust REIT (NXST) is the owner of India's leading UCCs platform of
high-quality assets that serve as essential consumption infrastructure for India's growing
Nexus will be the 1st middle class. Nexus will be the 1st publicly listed retail REIT in India. REIT as an asset
publicly listed retail REIT in class is more of a quasi-debt product and is highly regulated with restrictions of capital
India and by nature is deployment into land/ under-construction assets. Thus, NXST by nature is more of a
more of a stable annuity- stable annuity-generating asset class invested in rent-generating assets. NXST being a
generating asset class retail-focused REIT is largely invested in pre-leased operating retail malls. At fair valuation,
invested in rent-generating return expectation on NXST will be equivalent to blended capitalization rate, which is
assets ~8% at current 10-year G-sec rates.
n Phoenix Mills (PHNX), a leading retail-led mixed-use mall developer and operator
in India. It operates 11 malls across eight cities in India and three new malls are currently
under construction, including one in Kolkata (making it the ninth city). PHNX is on an
expansion spree and its mall portfolio is expected to increase to 13 mn sq. ft. by FY27
from ~9 mn sq. ft. as of FY23. The development business comes with its own sets of risks
like (a) Execution risk, (b) Leasing risk and hence any investment in PHNX would require
higher return expectations (cap rate + return adjusted for development and execution
risk) provided everything else remains constant.
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 21 July 2023 | 12

Exhibit 20: NXST and PHNX presence across India

Particulars Nexus REIT Phoenix
No of malls 17 14
Operational malls 17 11
No. of cities 14 8
City names Amritsar, Chandigarh, Delhi, Udaipur, Ahmedabad, Indore, Pune,
Ahmedabad, Indore, Pune, Mumbai, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai,
Hyderabad, Bhubaneswar, Mangaluru, Lucknow, Bareilly
Bengaluru, Mysuru, Chennai
Total Leasable area (mn sqft) 9.2 8.78
FY23 consumption (INRbn)* 104.2 92.5
Total Rental income 12.3 13.1
Rental income as % of consumption 11.80% 14%
% leased /occupied 96% 97%
Structure REIT Developer and Manager of Malls
No. Under construction malls - 3
GLA construction malls (mn sqft) - 4.21
Involvement in As a REIT, Nexus acquires properties Phoenix being a developer and
Project life cycle which are pre-leased and manager of malls take the green field
rent generating. opportunities and undertakes
Developmental risk.
Source: Company, Antique

Exhibit 21: Nexus vs. Phoenix's footprint in India

- Nexus
- Phoenix
- Nexus and Phoenix

Amritsar
Nexus (1 mall) - 0.54 mn sqft
Chandigarh
Nexus (1 mall) - 1.25 mn sqft
Bareilly
Delhi Phoenix - (1 mall) - 0.3 mn sqft
Nexus (1 mall) - 0.51 mn sqft
Lucknow
Phoenix - (2 malls) - 1.3 mn sqft

Udaipur Indore
Nexus (1 mall) - 0.4 mn sqft Nexus (2 malls)
Kolkata
0.46 mn sqft
Ahemdabad Nexus (1 mall) - 1mn sqft
Phoenix - (1 mall)
Nexus (1 mall) - 0.88 mn sqft
1 mn sqft
Phoenix - (1 mall) - 0.7 mn sqft
Bhubaneshwar
Pune Nexus (1 mall) - 0.42 mn sqft
Nexus (1 mall) - 0.44 mn sqft
MMR
Nexus (1 mall) - 0.97 mn sqft
’ l Phoenix (2 malls) - 2.4 mn sqft
Hyderabad
Phoenix - (2 malls) - 2.6 mn sqft Nexus (1 mall) - 0.83 mn sqft

Bengaluru
Nexus (3 mallw) - 1 mn sqft
Mangaluru
Phoenix - (2 malls) - 2.5 mn sqft
Nexus (1 mall) - 0.5 mn sqft
Mysore
Nexus (1 mall) - 0.33 mn sqft

Source: Company, Antique

ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 21 July 2023 | 13

Financial Projections
Exhibit 22: Asset assumptions
Assets Area Occupancy In-place rent Rental
(mn sq.ft.) (%) (INR/sq.ft./mth) M T M growth
Select City Walk, Delhi (SIPL) 0.51 98.80% 423 22.00% 8.50%
Nexus Elante, Chandigarh (CSJIPL) 1.25 99.40% 167 5.70% 8.00%
Nexus Seawoods, Navi Mumbai (WRPL) 0.97 99.00% 124 11.20% 8.00%
Nexus Ahmedabad One (EDPL) 0.89 96.40% 119 19.30% 8.00%
Nexus Hyderabad (NHRPL) 0.83 98.80% 108 7.50% 6.50%
Nexus Koramangala Bengaluru (NHRPL) 0.31 97.80% 159 18.30% 8.00%
Nexus Vijaya Chennai (VPPL) 0.65 99.40% 94 22.30% 6.50%
Nexus Westend Pune (CPPL) 0.44 95.90% 116 19.90% 6.50%
Nexus Esplanada Bhubaneswar (SRPL) 0.42 97.00% 129 17.10% 8.00%
Nexus Amritsar (EDPL) 0.54 97.20% 71 21.20% 5.50%
Nexus Shantiniketan Bengaluru (NSRPL) 0.41 97.30% 85 27.00% 6.50%
Nexus Whitefield Bengaluru (NWPL) 0.31 94.70% 77 4.60% 5.50%
Nexus Celebration Udaipur (NURPL) 0.4 94.60% 60 20.00% 5.50%
Fiza by Nexus Mangaluru (NMRPL) 0.48 71.70% 46 19.00% 5.00%
Nexus Centre City Mysuru (NMRPL) 0.32 97.80% 55 30.30% 5.50%
Nexus Indore Central (NMMCPL) 0.24 90.40% 65 29.70% 5.00%
Treasure Island (ITIPL) 0.22 96.80% 65 19.80% 5.00%
Total 9.18 95.70% 120.8 16.10%
Source: Company, Antique

Exhibit 23: Rental income derived from in-place rent, occupancy, rental escalation
Rental income (INR mn) FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33
Select City Walk, Delhi 2,775 3,011 3,267 3,545 3,846 4,173 4,527 4,912 5,330 5,783
Elante, Chandigarh 2,689 2,904 3,137 3,388 3,659 3,951 4,267 4,609 4,977 5,376
Seawoods, Navi Mumbai 1,543 1,667 1,800 1,944 2,100 2,268 2,449 2,645 2,856 3,085
Nexus Ahmedabad One 1,316 1,421 1,535 1,658 1,790 1,933 2,088 2,255 2,436 2,630
Nexus Hyderabad 1,132 1,205 1,284 1,367 1,456 1,551 1,652 1,759 1,873 1,995
Koramangala Bengaluru 625 675 729 787 850 918 991 1,071 1,156 1,249
Nexus Vijaya Chennai 776 827 880 938 999 1,063 1,133 1,206 1,285 1,368
Nexus Westend Pune 626 666 710 756 805 857 913 972 1,035 1,103
Esplanada Bhubaneswar 681 736 794 858 927 1,001 1,081 1,167 1,261 1,362
Nexus Amritsar 469 495 522 551 581 613 647 683 720 760
Shantiniketan Bengaluru 432 460 490 522 556 592 631 672 715 762
Nexus Whitefield Bengaluru 286 302 319 336 355 374 395 416 439 463
Nexus Celebration Udaipur 287 303 320 338 356 376 396 418 441 465
Fiza by Nexus Mangaluru 201 211 221 232 244 256 269 282 296 311
Nexus Centre City Mysuru 218 230 243 256 270 285 300 317 334 353
Nexus Indore Central 178 187 196 206 216 227 238 250 263 276
Treasure Island 170 179 188 197 207 218 228 240 252 264
Mall rental income (INR mn) 14,405 15,478 16,634 17,877 19,215 20,655 22,205 23,874 25,670 27,604
Office rental (INR mn) 946 994 1,043 1,095 1,150 1,208 1,268 1,332 1,398 1,468
Hospitality business (INR mn) 1,266 1,371 1,462 1,535 1,612 1,692 1,777 1,866 1,959 2,057
Cam and other charges (INR mn) 5,042 5,417 5,822 6,257 6,725 7,229 7,772 8,356 8,985 9,662
Source: Company, Antique

Exhibit 24: Derivation of NDCF

FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33
Revenue from operations (INR mn) 21,659 23,260 24,961 26,765 28,702 30,785 33,022 35,427 38,012 40,791
NOI (INR mn) 16,388 17,814 19,175 20,073 21,527 23,089 24,767 26,571 28,509 30,593
NOI (% of revenue from operations) 76% 77% 77% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75%
EBITDA (INR mn) 15,392 16,730 18,068 18,735 20,092 21,549 23,116 24,799 26,609 28,554
EBITDA (% of revenue from operations) 71% 72% 72% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70%
NDCF (INR mn) 12,124 13,133 14,118 14,988 16,073 17,239 18,493 19,839 21,287 22,843
NDCF as % of EBITDA 79% 78% 78% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%
Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 21 July 2023 | 14

Valuation and Outlook

Most assets in NXST's portfolio are market leaders in their respective sub-markets, resulting in
high occupancy of 96.2% across its portfolio, 11.0% CAGR in tenant sales in FY18-20, and
7.5% CAGR in marginal rent across its portfolio in CY16-19 (1.22% above the market). We
expect the NOI and NDCF to be healthy at INR 16.4 bn and INR 12.1 bn respectively in
FY23 and expect it to grow at a CAGR ~8.0% in FY24-26. Consequently, the expected
distribution per unit (DPU) is INR 8 in FY23, resulting in a yield of ~7%.
To value the portfolio, we discount the cash flow (NDCF + interest - capex) at a rate of
11.55% over 10 years and assign a terminal value at 8% cap rate in FY33. The gross asset
value is reduced by the net debt to arrive at a NAV of INR 131/unit. We initiate with BUY
with an expected return of 13% at a target price of INR 131 and an annual yield of 7%.

Exhibit 25: Assumptions and valuations

Assumptions
No of units (mn) 1,515
Cost of equity 15%
Cost of debt 8.50%
Target D/(D+E) 40.00%
Tax 25.00%
Discounting factor 11.55%
Cap rate 8.00%
Source: Company, Antique

Exhibit 26: Valuation

FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33
Free cashflow (INR bn) 14.8 16.5 17.5 18.4 19.5 20.6 21.9 23.2 24.7 409
Gross asset value (INR bn) 239
Net asset value (INR bn) 199
NAV/unit 131
Upside 14.4%

DPU 8.00
CMP 116.8
Yield 6.9%
Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 21 July 2023 | 15

Risks and Concerns

Interest rate : 10-year bond yields in India are currently at around 7.15% and has moderated
from 7.4% in the last one year. With interest hikes likely to have peaked out, we expect
interest to stay at this level and further moderate with a new rate cut cycle starting from
4QFY24. However, any increase in rates would impact valuation and the attractiveness of
the REIT.

Exhibit 27: 10-year bond yields in India

8.0 India 10 year Yield 7.8 India 10 year Yield
7.0
7.6
6.0
7.4
5.0

4.0 7.2 7.2

3.0
7.0
2.0
6.8
1.0

- 6.6
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23

Jun-23
Jun-23
Jun-23
Jun-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Mar-23
Mar-23
Mar-23
Mar-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
Apr-23
Apr-23
Apr-23
May-23
May-23
May-23
May-23
Source: Company, Antique Source: Company, Antique

Significant value concentrated in top 5 assets: Of the 17 UCCs, five (Select Citywalk,
Delhi; Nexus Elante, Chandigarh; Nexus Seawoods, Navi Mumbai; Nexus Ahmedabad
One; Nexus Hyderabad) contribute ~66% of the total mall rentals; the top three malls contribute
~50% of the total mall rentals. Thus, any impact on the top 5 malls would significantly impact
the portfolio, increasing concentration risk.

Exhibit 28: NXST's portfolio: The top 3 malls contribute 50% of the total mall rental income
Rental income (INR mn) FY24 % contribution
Select City Walk, Delhi (SIPL) 2,775 19%
Nexus Elante, Chandigarh (CSJIPL) 2,689 19%
Nexus Seawoods, Navi Mumbai (WRPL) 1,543 11%
Nexus Ahmedabad One (EDPL) 1,316 9%
Nexus Hyderabad (NHRPL) 1,132 8%
Nexus Koramangala Bengaluru (NHRPL) 625 4%
Nexus Vijaya Chennai (VPPL) 776 5%
Nexus Westend Pune (CPPL) 626 4%
Nexus Esplanada Bhubaneswar (SRPL) 681 5%
Nexus Amritsar (EDPL) 469 3%
Nexus Shantiniketan Bengaluru (NSRPL) 432 3%
Nexus Whitefield Bengaluru (NWPL) 286 2%
Nexus Celebration Udaipur (NURPL) 287 2%
Fiza by Nexus Mangaluru (NMRPL) 201 1%
Nexus Centre City Mysuru (NMRPL) 218 2%
Nexus Indore Central (NMMCPL) 178 1%
Treasure Island 170 1%
Mall rental income (INR mn) 14,405 100%
Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 21 July 2023 | 16

Company Background
Nexus Select Trust REIT (NXST) is the owner of India's leading Urban Consumption
Centers (UCCs) platform of high-quality assets that serve as essential consumption infrastructure
for India's growing middle class. Nexus will be the 1st publicly listed retail REIT in India.

Exhibit 29: Relationship between the Nexus Select Trust, the Trustee, the Manager and the
Unitholders

Source: Company, Antique

Exhibit 30: Holding structure of the portfolio

Source: Company, Antique

Key regulations of REIT

n Manager to distribute not less than 90% of the net distributable income after tax of the
REIT to the unit holders
n 80% of the value of REIT assets to be invested in completed and rent generating properties.
Completed properties are properties which have received occupancy certificates and
rent generating properties are properties of which 75% or more area has been rented/
leased out.
n Only 20% of the value of REIT assets to be invested in developmental properties, listed or
unlisted debt of companies, mortgage-backed securities, government securities etc.
n For projects implemented in stages, the portion of the project (including any land which is
contiguous and an extension) that is not completed and rent or income generating is
required to be counted as an “under construction” property
n Not less than 51% of the consolidated revenues of the Nexus Select Trust, and the Asset
SPVs, other than gains arising from disposal of properties, must at all times arise from
rental, leasing real estate assets or other income incidental to the leasing of such assets.
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 21 July 2023 | 17

As of December 31, 2022, the company's portfolio included 17 top-quality grade A UCCs
covering a total leasable area of 9.2 mn sq. ft., along with two complementary hotel assets
featuring 354 keys and three office assets with 1.3 mn sq. ft. These assets are strategically
situated across 14 of India's prominent cities, which accounts for 30% of India's overall
discretionary retail spending in FY20.
NXST's portfolio features a tenant base of 1,044 domestic and international brands, occupying
2,893 stores. The portfolio is well diversified across various cities, with no single asset or
tenant contributing more than 18.3% and 2.8% respectively to the total gross rentals for a
month.

Exhibit 31: Geographic split of assets (by market value) Exhibit 32: Market value by asset
4 3 1
6

25

41

30 90
North West South East UCC Office Hotels Reneables
Source: Company, Antique Source: Company, Antique

n NXST is sponsored by a company owned by Blackstone, a global investment firm with

~USD 975 bn of assets under management. Blackstone’s real estate business, founded
in 1991, manages ~USD 326 bn of assets across the Americas, Europe, and Asia. The
business has experience in building and taking companies public, including Hilton
Worldwide Holdings Inc. and Invitation Homes Inc., and has participated in India’s first
two REITs.
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 21 July 2023 | 18

Exhibit 33: NXST’s portfolio value as on December 31, 2022

Urban Consumption Centres TLA Committed M.Value % of Gross WALE
(mn sqft) occupancy (%) (INR mn) PF value (Yrs)
Select Citywalk 0.51 98.8% 45,519 19% 4.9
Nexus Elante 1.25 99.4% 38,672 16% 5.5
Nexus Seawoods 0.97 99.0% 22,169 9% 7.1
Nexus Ahmedabad One 0.88 96.4% 19,561 8% 6.0
Nexus Hyderabad 0.83 98.8% 16,896 7% 4.2
Nexus Koramangala 0.30 97.8% 8,352 4% 3.3
Nexus Vijaya 0.65 99.4% 12,565 5% 4.2
Nexus Westend 0.44 95.9% 8,444 4% 7.8
Nexus Esplanade 0.42 97.0% 8,617 4% 7.7
Nexus Amritsar 0.54 97.2% 6,326 3% 6.7
Nexus Shantiniketan 0.41 97.3% 5,953 3% 6.9
Nexus Whitefield 0.31 94.7% 3,681 2% 4.7
Nexus Celebration 0.40 94.6% 4,557 2% 5.0
Fiza by Nexus 0.49 71.7% 2,881 1% 5.1
Nexus Centre City 0.33 97.8% 2,714 1% 6.7
Nexus Indore Central 0.24 90.4% 2,007 1% 13.7
Portfolio Investment
Treasure Island 0.21 96.8% 2,552 1% 5.1
Subtotal Urban Consumption Centres 9.18 96.2% 2,11,466 90% 5.7
Offices TLA Office M.Value % of Gross WALE
(mn sqft) occupancy (INR mn) PF value (Yrs)
Westend Icon Offices 0.98 74.9% 11,442 5% 3.5
Vijaya Office 0.19 100.0% 1,823 1% 3.2
Elante Office 0.09 75.1% 1,059 0% 4.6
Total offices 1.26 78.7% 14,324 6% 3.6
Hotels Total Hotel M.Value % of Gross WALE
Keys Occupancy (INR mn) PF value (Yrs)
Hyatt Regency Chandigarh 211.00 66.2% 4,908 2% -
Oakwood Residences, Benagluru 143.00 73.0% 1,882 1% -
Total offices 354 69.0% 6790 3% -
Hotels Capacity Hotel M.Value % of Gross WALE
(MW) Occupancy (INR mn) PF value (Yrs)
Karnataka Solar Power 15.00 - 2,413 1% -

Total Portfolio 2,34,993 100%

Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 21 July 2023 | 19

Management personnel
Nexus Select Mall Management Pvt. Ltd. is the manager of the Nexus Select Trust (NXST).
The manager is led by Mr. Dalip Sehgal, the Executive Director and CEO. NXST has a fully
integrated platform managed by an external manager with strong capabilities across key
functions including property management, operations, tenant engagement, marketing, leasing
and occupier services, asset management, ESG, and technology.

Exhibit 34: Breakdown of Management Team

Department CXO/HODs Team Headcount In-House Specialists/Capabilities
Corporate CEO: Mr. Dalip Shegal 1 member
Operations COO: Mr. Jayen Naik 11 members Development, ESG, Engineering and
ESG: Mr. Nilesh Singh MEP, Store Design, Hospitality

Leasing and Occupier Services Leasing: Mr. Nirzar Jain 21 members Leasing, Events and Promotions,
Marketing: Mr. Nishank Joshi Space-On Hire/Media

Finance and Legal CFO: Mr. Rajesh Deo 21 members Finance and Accounting, Legal and
GC: Ruchika Nayyar Secretarial, Treasury, Procurement
Source: Company, Antique

n Dalip Sehgal (Non-Independent Director and Chief Executive Officer): Mr.

Segal holds a bachelor's degree in arts and a master's degree in business administration
from the University of Delhi. He has more than 40 years of work experience and has held
several high-level positions in various companies, including WRPL (Westerly Retail Pvt.
Ltd.), Hindustan Lever Ltd., Godrej Consumer Products Ltd., Godrej Hershey Foods &
Beverage Ltd., and Graviss Holdings Pvt. Ltd. He was the CEO of WRPL from 2018 to
2022.
n Jayen Naik (Chief Operations Officer): Mr. Naik has managed the portfolio
assets owned by the sponsor group since their acquisition. Naik holds a bachelor's
degree in science and an MBA from B.K. School of Business Management, Gujarat. He
has over 20 years of work experience and has previously worked with Adani Retail Ltd.
as head-operations, Aditya Birla Group as general manager-operations, and Vadilal
Industries Ltd. as assistant manager-export division.
n Nirzar Jain (Chief Leasing Officer): Mr. Jain holds a diploma in hotel management
& catering technology from the National Council for Hotel Management and Catering
Technology, New Delhi, and has completed a senior management program from the
Indian Institute of Management Calcutta. He has over 24 years of work experience and
has managed over 22 urban consumption centers. Jain has previously worked with Inorbit
Malls (India) Pvt. Ltd. as senior manager-operations, Kalpataru Retail Ventures Pvt. Ltd.
as assistant general manager-Malls, Oberoi Realty (Kingston Property Services Ltd.) as
vice president-mall, and Lake Shore India Management Pvt. Ltd. as head-leasing, digital
initiatives & research.
n Rajesh Deo (Chief Financial Officer): Mr. Deo holds a bachelor's degree in
commerce from Utkal University and has completed a general management program for
Asia from Indian School of Business and National University of Singapore's Business
School. He is an associate member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India and
has over 20 years of work experience. He has previously worked with WRPL as its CFO,
Microsoft Corporation (India) Pvt. Ltd. as a controller, and Nokia India Pvt. Ltd. as business
controller.
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 21 July 2023 | 20

Financials
Profit and loss account (INR mn) Cash flow statement (INR mn)
Year ended 31 Mar FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e Year ended 31 Mar FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e
Net Revenue 9,070 13,182 19,222 21,488 23,081 PBT (2,102) 723 7,474 10,441 11,886
Op. Expenses 4,349 5,405 5,459 6,096 6,351 Depreciation & amortization 2,513 2,429 2,429 2,453 2,391
EBITDA 4,720 7,777 13,763 15,392 16,730 Interest expense 5,535 4,819 4,730 3,400 3,400
Depreciation 2,513 2,429 2,429 2,453 2,391 (Inc)/Dec in working capital (1,066) 724 1,488 1,610 1,703
EBIT 2,207 5,348 11,334 12,939 14,339 Tax paid 351 (1,001) (1,239) (1,967) (2,008)
Other income 1,410 803 843 885 930 Other operating Cash Flow (1,098) (220) 1,217 (2,453) (2,391)
Interest Exp. 5,535 5,240 4,730 3,400 3,400 CF from operating activities 4,133 7,475 16,100 13,484 14,982
Extra Ordinary Items -gain/(loss) (163) (215) - - - Capital expenditure (1,716) (1,259) 792 (1,35,751) 650
Reported PBT (2,081) 696 7,447 10,424 11,868 (Inc)/Dec in investments 1,996 (1,116) 87 0 0
Tax (111) 833 1,239 1,967 2,008 Others 469 (331) 863 - -
Reported PAT (1,970) (137) 6,208 8,457 9,861 CF from investing activities 749 (2,707) 1,742 (1,35,751) 650
Profit (loss) From Asso. (22) 27 50 27 17 Inc/(Dec) in share capital 29 - -1,183 1,49,435 -
Net Profit (1,991) (110) 6,258 8,485 9,877 Inc/(Dec) in borrowing 1,101 -210 -4,419 -18,665 -
Adjusted PAT (1,828) 105 6,258 8,485 9,877 Interest paid (4,073) (4,145) (4,730) (3,400) (3,400)
Adjusted EPS (INR) (56.3) 3.2 303.0 5.6 6.5 Dividend Paid (131) - - (12,124) (13,133)
Others (955) (27) - - -
Balance sheet (INR mn) CF from financing activities (4,028) (4,382) (10,333) 1,15,246 (16,533)
Year ended 31 Mar FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e Net cash flow 853 386 7,509 (7,021) (901)
Share Capital 2,480 3,249 2,065 1,51,500 1,51,500 Opening balance 1,656 2,509 2,896 10,405 3,384
Reserves & Surplus 14,141 13,990 20,225 16,575 13,321 Closing balance 2,509 2,896 10,405 3,384 2,483
Networth 16,622 17,238 22,290 1,68,075 1,64,821
Debt 62,804 63,084 58,665 40,000 40,000 Growth indicators (%)
Net deferred Tax liabilities 2,292 2,398 1,828 1,828 1,828 Year ended 31 Mar FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e
Others 1,198 1,200 1,857 1,857 1,857 Revenue -44.1 45.3 45.8 11.8 7.4
Capital Employed 82,916 83,921 84,640 2,11,760 2,08,506 EBITDA -52.4 64.8 77.0 11.8 8.7
Property, Plant and Equipment 68,774 68,486 69,210 2,04,961 2,04,310 Adj PAT -188.4 -105.8 5832.9 35.6 16.4
Capital work in progress 2,408 1,606 91 91 91 Adj EPS -3157.4 -105.8 9232.8 -98.2 16.4
Other Non-Current Assets 2,998 3,089 2,690 2,690 2,690
Net Fixed Assets 74,180 73,181 71,990 2,07,741 2,07,091 Valuation (x)
Goodwill 2,251 2,251 2,251 2,251 2,251 Year ended 31 Mar FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e
Investments 2,059 1,948 1,742 1,742 1,742 P/E (x) -2.1 36.0 0.4 20.9 17.9
Non Current Investments 422 293 206 206 206 P/BV (x) 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.2 1.2
Current Investments 1,637 1,655 1,536 1,536 1,536 EV/EBITDA (x) 49.6 29.9 16.3 13.8 12.7
Current Assets, Loans & Adv. 10,753 13,019 16,631 10,170 9,635 EV/Sales (x) 25.81 17.61 11.65 9.88 9.24
Inventory 1,487 1,247 1,247 860 923
Debtors 1,490 1,161 1,104 1,719 1,846
Financial ratios
Cash & Bank balance 4,329 6,541 10,405 3,384 2,483
Year ended 31 Mar FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e
RoE (%) -9.2 0.6 31.7 8.9 5.9
Loans & advances and others 3,447 4,070 3,875 4,207 4,382
RoCE (%) 4.2 7.4 14.4 9.3 7.3
Current Liabilities & Provisions 6,327 6,478 7,974 10,144 12,214
Asset/T.O (x) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Liabilities 6,205 6,335 7,841 10,011 12,081
Net Debt/Equity (x) 3.4 3.2 2.1 0.2 0.2
Provisions 122 143 133 133 133
EBIT/Interest (x) 0.4 1.0 2.4 3.8 4.2
Net Current Assets 4,426 6,540 8,657 26 (2,579)
Application of Funds 82,916 83,921 84,640 2,11,760 2,08,506
Margins (%)
Per share data Year ended 31 Mar FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e
EBITDA Margin (%) 52.0 59.0 71.6 71.6 72.5
Year ended 31 Mar FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e
EBIT Margin (%) 24.3 40.6 59.0 60.2 62.1
No. of shares (mn) 32 32 21 1,515 1,515
PAT Margin (%) -17.4 0.8 31.2 37.9 41.1
Diluted no. of shares (mn) 32 32 21 1,515 1,515
BVPS (INR) 512 531 1079 111 109 Source: Company Antique

CEPS (INR) 70 188 625 11 12

DPU (INR) 8.0 8.7

Source: Company, Antique

ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 21 July 2023 | 21

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