"Pakistan's Growing Water Crisis: The Impact of Drought, Climate
Change, and Flawed Water Planning"
Oblivious to Drought Editorial Published February 24, 2025
Summary
Pakistan is facing two types of drought: one caused by dry weather and reduced rainfall, and
the other by insufficient water in streams, reservoirs, and groundwater, worsened by months
of low rainfall. Climate change is expected to increase droughts, with a 2022 World Bank
study predicting more such events. This year, below-normal rainfall has led to drought
conditions in Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan, and glaciers in the north are shrinking due to
rising temperatures, further affecting water availability in the Indus River system. Despite
this, Pakistan's water regulators, like Irsa, have made planning decisions, such as approving
the Cholistan canal project, without considering the reduced water flow or worsening drought
conditions. The justification for using floodwaters from the Sutlej river is flawed, as floods
do not occur every year. Given the declining water availability, policymakers must reconsider
such projects to address the growing water scarcity.
Facts and Figures
1. Drought Conditions (Climate & Weather)
Below-Normal Rainfall: Since September 2024, rainfall has been below 40% of the
normal amount across Pakistan, particularly impacting Punjab, Sindh,
and Balochistan.
Drought in 2024: Due to this significant reduction in rainfall, Pakistan is facing
a drought in most parts of the country this year, especially in the aforementioned
provinces.
Projections: Without significant rainfall, the drought and dry conditions are expected
to worsen over the coming months.
2. Glaciers and Water Flow (Climate & Glaciology)
Glacier Shrinking: Glaciers in the northern parts of Pakistan have been shrinking
over the last several years due to below-normal snowfall and rising temperatures. This
is affecting water flow in the Indus River and its tributaries.
Forecast for Future Water Flow: The reduction in glacier melt is expected
to further reduce the future water flows in the Indus River system, which will
aggravate water scarcity.
3. Temperature Rise (Climate & Weather)
Above-Normal Winter Temperature: This year's winter temperature has been
recorded as above normal in most parts of Pakistan, contributing to a worsening water
crisis by accelerating glacier melt and reducing water availability.
4. Water Availability and Planning (Water Resources & Policy)
Approval of Cholistan Canal: A year ago, Irsa (Indus River System Authority),
Pakistan's water regulator, approved water availability for the Cholistan Canal project,
which was planned without considering the declining water flows in the river system.
Flawed Justification for Canal Project: The justification for the canal project was
based on the assumption that floodwaters from the Sutlej River, controlled by India,
would be available to feed the new canal. However, floods do not occur every year,
and this assumption is unreliable, especially considering the declining water
availability in the Indus system.
5. Impact of Climate Change (Environmental Impact)
Projected Increase in Droughts: A 2022 World Bank study projected that droughts,
especially those related to dry weather and lower-than-normal rainfall, will increase in
the coming years due to the impact of climate change.
6. Water Shortages (Agriculture & Water Resources)
Water Shortages for Farmers in Punjab: Farmers in Punjab, one of the most
agriculturally important regions of Pakistan, are experiencing water shortages,
particularly in drought years when the water availability from the Indus River
system is reduced.
These facts and figures highlight the increasing severity of water scarcity in
Pakistan, exacerbated by climate change, and the flawed decision-making in
water planning, which could worsen the situation if not reassessed.
