All material in this course/e-book is

Copyright www.informracing.com © 2019

www.informracing.com

DISCLAIMER AND OR LEGAL NOTICES:

You may get better or worse results than advertised on the website or here in this course/e-book. All
results shown are accurate but results in the future may differ from those in the past, so you could
make more or less money over any particular period. We are not responsible for any losses you incur
using any of the ideas in this course/e-book.

The information presented herein represents the view of the author as of the date of publication.
Because of the rate with which conditions change, the author reserves the right to alter and update
his opinions based on the new conditions. The report is for informational purposes only, no
responsibility for any losses incurred using the information herein will be taken and you are advised
to only bet with money that you can afford to lose. While every attempt has been made to verify the
information provided in this report, neither the author nor his affiliates/partners assume any
responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions. Any slights of people or organizations are
unintentional. If advice concerning legal or related matters is needed, the services of a fully qualified
professional should be sought. This e-book is not intended for use as a source of legal or accounting
advice. You should be aware of any laws which govern sports betting or other business practices in
your country and state. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or
by any means electronic or mechanical without permission in writing from the publisher and copyright
holder. It is not to be shared, given away, copied or re sold at any time.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 1

Modules

No. Page
Introduction 3
1 System - Accumulator bets for big profits 5
2 System - How to win 75% of the time 10
3 System - Winning with doubles and trebles 12
4 System - Double your bank football system 15
5 Strategy - Use the experts view to find your winners 18
6 Strategy - How to rate a race using simple form reading skills 23
7 Tutorial - Are market movers worth following? 27
8 Tutorial - In running betting 31
9 Tutorial – A look at jump racing 40
10 System - Handicap betting system 44
11 System – Yankee your way 45
12 Tutorial - Favourites – to back or not to back 48
13 Tutorial - Compile your own betting forecasts 50
14 System - Winning big with top weights 54
15 Tutorial - Narrowing down your bets 57
16 Tutorial - How to give money away to a stranger 59
17 System - Value betting the favourites 63
18 Tutorial - Which trainers to back and which to avoid 66
19 Tutorial - The 6 secrets of money multiplication 71
20 Tutorial - 17 betting pearls of wisdom 75
21 Tutorial - 12 betting lessons from Joseph Buchdahl 79
22 System – Simple short priced laying system 83
23 System – Making each way bets pay 86
24 System – Backing system 90
25 System – Clever nap bets 91
26 Strategy – Identifying false favourites a different way 92
27 Tutorial – Specialise and become your own racing expert 94

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 2

Introduction

**FIRST THINGS FIRST**

**DON’T SKIP THROUGH THIS COURSE. DON’T SCAN DOWN THE

PAGES AND GET TO THE BOTTOM WITHOUT READING ALL OF
THE MODULES. GO THROUGH IT PAGE BY PAGE AND JUST READ
WHAT IS WRITTEN. PEOPLE WHO DON’T DO THIS WILL GET ZERO
OUT OF THIS COURSE THAT WILL BE VALUABLE TO YOU IN MANY
WAYS, I ASSURE YOU. THANK YOU.**

Hi and welcome to YOUR Betting Profits Course.

I have always been a great believer in the saying, ‘You get out of life what
you put in’ and that with effort you will be rewarded. With that in mind it
is understandable that I have made more effort than most when it comes
to finding winners and therefore made a lot of money from my betting.

I have never rested on my laurels, always looking and searching for more
ways to win, for more ways of collecting from winning bets.

There are plenty of people out there who believe betting is a mugs game
and that only the bookie wins. For me this is a good thing if it is true as
it means that the bookie has more money in his satchel to pay out to me
and the others who bet in a professional way, when a good opportunity
presents itself.

Anyone can walk into a bookies and bet on every race without any
strategy or technique but I assure you that those who do will never win.

I have been betting seriously for over thirty years now and I haven’t been
inside a bookies for about ten years or so now. It is not the professional
‘office’ environment that I want to be spending my time in and the
people who frequent these shops or the atmosphere inside would not
help me in any way whatsoever.

You see the people you socialise with regularly play an important part in
who you become so I want to surround myself with people who know
how to be successful, who know how to be winners.

Positive people who have a forward-looking attitude, a desire to win and

a confidence and strength that you can feel just by being in the same
room as them. And this is what I want for you now too.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 3

I want you to start believing in yourself and to see yourself as a winning
punter. Imagine you are a successful and professional punter who bets
with discipline and knows how to win.

Seeing yourself in your mind being positive and successful really does
work, in all areas of life and I want you to believe from today that you are
a successful, professional punter who is serious about betting and knows
how to place winning bets.

Just imagining your professional and attitude can make you feel better
right away, it can make you stand up straighter and get a feeling of
confidence about yourself that you didn’t have just five minutes ago.

Having the right mental attitude can be just as important as the betting
techniques and systems that you use to find your winning bets. So
believe, believe, believe!

You have as good a chance of winning as anyone else and from today you
have a better chance as you are starting your journey afresh with a new
winning attitude, learning new strategies and techniques.

So all the best for now and good luck!

James Dawson
help@informracing.com

Always remember my mantra:

‘With strategy, a structure to our betting and discipline we become

professional and profitable. Without these we are no more than mug
punters.’

James Dawson

P.S I will be adding new modules to this course in future and when I do,
you will be notified by email so that you can get the latest additions for
free. If you unsubscribe from the mailing list you will not be notified of
these updates, thanks.

Now let’s get started!

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 4

Module 1
Accumulator Bets For Big Profits
The standard way of betting is to place a single bet on a horse/football
team or whatever and if you win pick up your profit and move on to the
next bet. If this next bet loses your stake then comes out the winnings
from previous bets and so on.

There are other ways to bet of course such as doubles, trebles, forecasts
etc. but a way that I have always used to great success is an accumulator
bet where you pick a number of selections, put any profit you make from
the first bet on to the next bet and the next bet again to make a decent
total profit at the end.

If you look closely at how these accumulators can quickly accumulate it

does show how you can make a large profit very quickly.

For example, ten straight wins at just 1/2 (1.5 on the exchanges), placing
all winnings and returned stakes onto the next bet will turn a £20 note
into £1,153.30.

£20 win plus stake returned makes £30, £45, £67.50, £101.25, £151.88,
£227.81, £341.72, £512.58, £768.68, £1,153.30

Finding ten straight 1/2 ‘good things’ may not be that easy and certainly
not in one day but if you wait for the right bets then it is definitely
possible. I am happy to wait for the right bets over a week or more if
necessary and it can be an easy £1,500 betting this way and something
you definitely want to think about doing.

If you don’t want to have ten bets, then how about just five in a row?
That would still make you a quick £151.88.

You can place two very safe bets at 1/2 using £20 stakes and this will win
you £45 in total. You can now take your original stake out and play the
remaining £25 for a risk free betting strategy.

A further eight winning bets starting with this £25 all on 1/2 shots will
still pay out a handsome £640.72 and this is with no risk to your original
stake, just betting with your winnings.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 5

Start your first bet or bets on a Monday and then through the week on
what you consider solid betting opportunities and you should be able to
get your ten successful winning bets in a row at least one time out of four
or five.

This £600 or so risk free profit after my initial two bets have won, gives
me a solid base of profit most weeks and provides me with the funds to
use on my other betting strategies.

Where to find your accumulator bets.

A good place to start looking for these 1/2 shots would be in the horse
racing place market on the betting exchanges.

You can get some excellent opportunities here if you can find a solid
place chance and in races of only 8 or 9 runners too. Betting this way on
odds on horses to win is far more difficult and getting ten of these in a
row I find is almost impossible.

Look out for the information provided later in the course on Value
Backing Favourites and I will show how you can get much bigger prices
on a short priced favourite just to place and just one or two of these in
your accumulator will really rocket your profits.

There will often be two or three opportunities every racing day but you
must feel right about your selection or you should pass on the race.

I would suggest the following as a shortlist for your bets:

1. Stick to races on the flat or all weather as races on the flat have less
that can go wrong.

Jump races have fences and hurdles to negotiate and one bad jump can
put a horse back three or four lengths but not only that, horses can fall in
front of your selection and impede or bring it down. Races are also
longer and if the ground is not right for your horse it can empty out and
go backwards very quickly.

2. Ignore races of five and six furlongs as well as races over one and a
half miles.

Horses can start slowly or have trouble at the start and over sprint
distances they may not get a chance to get back into the race.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 6

Over longer distances than a mile and half the same can apply to that of
jump racing where a horse just tires too quickly and the jockey will not
beat the horse to death just so that you can win your place bet.

3. Don’t bet when the going is very soft or heavy.

Unless you are one hundred percent sure your selection enjoys racing on
such bad ground I wouldn’t waste a bet just for the sake of it. Tiring
ground will affect many horses and if they are not spot on for the race
will stop very quickly.

4. Make sure your selection is in form.

Check out the horses last run and see that it finished no further than two
lengths behind the winner. Don’t take form figures at face value as a
horse can finish sixth and still only be beaten a length. If it finished
second or third close behind the winner and the next horse was three or
four lengths further back even better.

5. Make sure your selection is race fit.

I suggest that a maximum of 21 days since a horse last ran is used for
your selections so that you know your horse is race fit and ready to ping
out of the gates.

6. Only bet if you have a top jockey on board.

There are plenty of good jockeys out there and many decent apprentices
too but for me I will only put the money down when a top jockey is riding
my selection. To be fair I say top jockey but I also mean top jockey in my
view and one that I consider a more than capable rider. If you follow
racing like I do you will know which jockeys are strong in a finish and
this is what you need sometimes to push your horse from a probable
fourth place to getting up for third.

7. Restrict your races to as few horses as possible.

Eight to ten runners should be a maximum wherever possible however

you will still get paid on third place if betting on the exchanges when
there are non-runners taking the field down to seven or less. Obviously
the less in the field, the less horses you have to beat.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 7

All in all you want to be as sure as you can be that the horse is not only
going to place but is also likely to win. Jockeys will not push a horse to
get placed if they are not going to win, whereas a jockey will go all out for
the win if it is possible. If it then gets pipped into second on the line you
will still get paid for the place.

Another place to find short priced good bets for an accumulator is a

home team in the football markets. Once you go past the first four or five
in the Premier league, much better teams at home to those down the
table can be found anywhere between 1.53 and 1.83 and with home
teams winning around fifty percent of the time, this would be the best
place to concentrate on for your selections.

Look for teams that have a good recent home record that are scoring lots
of goals playing against teams out of form and that are especially finding
it hard to find the back of the net. Just don’t take the odds at face value,
do some research into the form to make sure you have a proper
opportunity to win and to keep your accumulator going.

There are plenty of football bets that have 1/2 bets such as over/under
2.5 goals or over/under 3.5 goals and this may be an area you are able to
exploit if you have a good enough knowledge of football.

Remember at all times in betting but especially using this method, there
is always another day. Don’t force a bet that you will regret, it is just too
important to be sure that you ‘feel right’ about a selection. If your gut
says no then move on and wait for another opportunity.

I know from experience that getting your first tenfold accumulator up is

a real turning point as you have actually achieved your goal, you have
proven your patience to wait for the right opportunities and now you
know it can be done are prepared to wait for the right bets in order to do
it again.

Don’t get disheartened if you lose your first bet or even your tenth. Just
get better at selecting your bets and you will begin to win your
accumulators on a regular basis.

Other Accumulator Bets

I personally prefer the approach that I have just mentioned, trying for
ten correct bets at short prices, taking my stake out after two winners but
you could try for just four winners in a row at Evens (2.0) and starting
with your £20 you would win a total of £320.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 8

£20 win plus stake returned makes £40, £80, £160, £320.

This again could be just four horses to be placed in a row.

You could do this in a day perhaps or again spread the bets out over a
couple of days, even a week. You may even want to bet on five races
instead of four and after the first winner, keep the stake back again so
that you are not playing with any of you own money after the initial win.

Finding Even money shots to win on the run is not as simple as it sounds
but it can be done if you research your selections very carefully. Again
the horse racing place market is probably the best place to start but other
sports offer good opportunities too such as Football, Tennis or Snooker.

Try it for yourself today using just £2 stakes to start with and see how the
psychology of this bet affects you. You need mental toughness with an
accumulator bet more than any other for the strength to wait for the
right bets, to stake correctly, to be able to dismiss a really good bet if the
odds become too short and be able to wait for a week, maybe more to see
this bet through to the end.

Note: At the time of writing this Betfair are providing the opportunity to
bet four places in races of between eight and fifteen runners and three
places in races with 7 or less runners.

This allows us to bet if need be in more competitive races, get paid out
for an extra place and most importantly looking at quite a few recent
races, still get around the 1.5, 1.6 mark much of the time for the favourite
so this may be something you want to look at.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 9

Module 2
How to win 75% of the time.

To be a consistent winner you must learn to win on a regular basis so this

method is a must as it will allow you to make a profit 75% of the time.
That’s three winning bets from every four that you place.

I almost stumbled across this method a few years back but it has since
made up a large percentage of my overall profits since.

It is simple, almost too simple and the rules have to be strictly adhered
too but played correctly it will soon be one of your favourite profit
busting techniques.

First thing to do is look for a race that has eight or less runners and it can
be a handicap or a non-handicap race. It is best to wait until close to the
race so that you can get the 'live' prices but if this is not possible then you
can still bet on this race.

What you are looking for is a five to eight runner race where the
favourite can be backed at 9/4 or bigger and you may not be able to
know this beforehand, although the betting forecast in your newspaper
will be a good guide to this.

You can place your bets early on the betting exchanges or in some races
with a bookmaker if you prefer but I would advise you to wait as close to
the start of the race as possible because it is necessary to know who the
first three in the betting forecast are.

Your staking is as follows:

Stake 2 points to win on the favourite. (Minimum price of 9/4 or 3.25 on

the betting exchanges)

Stake 2 points to win on the second favourite. (Can be any price)

Stake 2 points to win on the third favourite. (Can also be any price)

It is ok for the race to have joint or co favourites as long as you can

definitely find three horses clear at the head of the market.

As long as your first horse is 9/4 and one of these three wins, which they
will do at least 75% of the time, then you make yourself a profit.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 10

In many cases the second or third favourite will win at around 5/1 or 6/1
and this is where your profits will increase rapidly, especially if you can
find two or three winning races in a row.

If the favourite wins at the minimum price of 9/4 then you will win 4.5
points on this horse and lose 4 points on the other two, making a profit
of half a point.

Just checking yesterday’s racing results, there were three races that
would have qualified for this method, having 8 or less runners and the
favourite at a minimum starting price of 9/4.

Race 1

8 runners, favourites S.P 11/4, second favourite WON 3/1

Race 2

8 runners, joint favourites S.P 11/4, joint favourite WON 11/4

Race 3

8 runners, favourites S.P 4/1, joint second favourite WON 9/2

Making a solid 4.25 points profit on the day

Stake a percentage of your bank on each bet and increase this stake as
your bank grows. So if you have £200 to start with, stake 3% on your
first race which is £6. Divide this by the three bets and you have a £2
stake on each horse.

You will have a few runs where you either lose or just win small amounts
but this method has always ultimately progressed in an upwardly
direction for and I have had winning bets on the third favourite up to
10/1.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 11

Module 3
Winning With Doubles And Trebles

I like to back horses using doubles and trebles simply because a winning
bet pays out more than just a single one. The downside is that you will
lose a winning bet if the other one or two bets fail.

However I feel this downside is well worth the risk as a winning treble at
prices of just 2/1, Evens and 2/1 will pay out a very decent 17/1 and an
each way treble on the same three horses would still pay around 3/1 even
if all three are just placed.

Some of my most memorable bets have been from successful doubles

and trebles and if you can squeeze a winner or two in at a decent price
then the pay out will certainly please you.

A method I would like to suggest is for betting each way doubles that
virtually guarantees a return of some kind but also gives a high frequency
of winning, profitable bets too.

Below is an example of this each way double bet backing two horses in
two different races.

Race 1 Race 2

Horse ‘A’ Horse ‘C’

Horse ‘B’ Horse ‘D’

Your stake is as follows:

Horse 'A' and Horse 'C' each way double (2 bets)

Horse 'A' and Horse 'D' each way double (2 bets)

Horse 'B' and Horse 'C' each way double (2 bets)

Horse 'B' and Horse 'D' each way double (2 bets)

So this works out at four each way doubles, 8 bets in total.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 12

If one horse in each race is placed you will get a return and depending on
the odds of these horses it could cover the bet. If you have two winners or
even better, two winners and two placed horses you will be pleased that
you made this bet!

You are looking for a high strike rate of horses that will at least place so
make sure that your horse has a good strike rate for hitting the first
three.

As you have already read and will do more so over the rest of this betting
course, there are plenty of opportunities for good priced runners in small
fields and I would suggest that this is the place that you begin.

If you are able to bet on the exchanges then you will still get paid out for
third if there are a number of non-runners that take the field to below
eight, so begin to look at races of no more than nine runners.

To easily place these bets on the exchanges, for Race 1 place 2 stakes on
Horse ‘A’ to win and place as well as two stakes on Horse ‘B’ to win and
place. From the resulting winnings and returns, divide these by two and
place the stakes on Horses ‘C’ and ‘D’ respectively.

For this betting strategy I first look for something that stands out against
the field for one reason or another for my first selection.

For example;

• Races where I can find just one horse that has excellent form at the
course compared to the other runners.
• Horses that are being ridden by a top jockey at the course for a top
trainer at the course where the other runners have just average
jockeys.
• A horse that is drawn well on the inside and has a front running
style so will be able to take advantage of this by getting to the lead
early, against other runners who mostly prefer to run behind the
leaders or be held up.
• A horse that has dropped a class or two compared to the other
runners who are all running in the same or higher class than last
time.
• A horse whose overall win and place strike rate towers above the
other runners who maybe mostly have never won before.

Anything you can find that gives one horse an overall advantage over the
rest of the field that gives it an extra chance of being at least placed.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 13

I have always followed the same method for my second selection and
that is the horse that is closest to 3/1 at the off that was also one of the
first three in the betting forecast in the Racing Post. If this happens to be
my first pick, I will go for the next biggest horse in the market that was
also one of the first three in the betting forecast.

I am not a fan of big market movers as my research has shown that a

large percentage of these horses actually lose and are nothing more than
hearsay with people getting the wrong end of the stick regarding the
horse and it only halves in price as other punters panic to get the
shortening odds.

For this strategy I want a horse that the Racing Post experts think has
one of the best three chances in the race and the betting public also
believe this close to the off. In other words hopefully, a horse with a very
solid chance.

If you follow this strategy then you will get plenty of races where at least
one of the selections will win and place and many bigger pay outs where
you find two winners and placed horses from the two races.

If you wish to play this same technique but using trebles rather than
doubles then you will have three races with two selections in each and a
total of 16 each way bets.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 14

Module 4
Double Your Bank Football System

This football system is a long term strategy that really requires setting up
a betting bank at the start of each football season.

It is well worth planning this correctly and getting your separate bank
together as the rewards will certainly be worth the efforts.

I have at least doubled my bank during many football seasons since

using this method, on two occasions my bank has trebled its starting
amount and this is all using level stakes every week.

The bet as I place costs £35 each time, however I won’t start betting until
the beginning of November so that the teams can settle down and the
bookies can get the right feel about the teams and the prices etc.

(You can use this system on any league around the world I just prefer the
English leagues as a basis for my bets. Between the end of May and
November there are still leagues such as Brazil, Norway and Finland that
start in April, so you can be betting on these from the beginning of July.)

I will then work out how many weekends of betting there will be
excluding any major FA Cup weekends when there may not be a full
English programme and multiply this by £35 roughly to get the bank
amount required.

Clearly you will not actually need this bank amount as you will be
winning over the course of the year but it is advisable to set a quarter or
even half aside for this bet just in case of a bad start.

I will estimate about 35 weekends and full midweek fixtures of betting so

approximately a total of £1,200 would be needed over the season if you
never had a winning weekend. If you are starting this later on in the
season then less will be required.

The bet consists of ten trebles and five fourfolds from five teams
selected, all to win away from home. You will bet 5 X £5 for the fourfolds
and 10 X £1 for the trebles so the bet works out to a total of £35 each
time.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 15

Finding your selections.

The first step is to find all of the home teams – just from the main four
English leagues - that have odds between 4/5 and 6/4 on the fixed odds
coupons. These coupons can be found at your local Bookmakers from
about Wednesday onwards or online at all Bookmakers websites.

If using decimal prices these will be odds between 1.8 and 2.5.

You will find there are around 20 to 30 selections each weekend from the
four divisions and from these you want to select just five matches.

The next step is to eliminate any of these matches that contain a team
currently in the top six of the league.

Now you need to look at the league tables that show how a team has
performed at home and away throughout the season and from the initial
matches that you selected, (home teams odds between 4/5 and 6/4), pick
those where the away team has won more or the same amount of times
away from home, as the home team has won at home.

For example, you have a match between team A and Team B.

Team A has won 6 home games so far this season and team B has won 3
away games so far this season, therefore this match would be discarded.

If however team B had won 6 away games or more this season, you
would put this match on your shortlist.

When you have gone through your list of matches you are going to pick
the five away teams that have the biggest odds.

If you do not have five matches left, you need to go through all of the
matches where the home teams odds are below 4/5 or over 6/4, look at
the home and away records and select the away teams that qualify now
taking those with the biggest odds first.

If you still do not have five then you need to pick the away teams with the
biggest odds that have won one less match away from home than the
home team has won at home.

You are looking to cover these five away teams in ten trebles and five
fourfolds.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 16

So you write down the away teams on a betting slip and write ‘any four
from five, £5 a bet = £25’ and ‘any three from five, £1 a bet’ = £10.

Or you add the five teams to your online betting slip, select fourfolds and
£5, trebles and £1 and click submit. You need three winners at least for a
winning return.

You will find that the average away winning odds are 5/2 or so and just
three winners at odds of 5/2 will win over £40 and cover both stakes for
the fourfolds and trebles.

Four winners at these odds will pay out over £900 for a £35 stake. If you
get five winners at those odds you will win over £3,750.

My best weekend was with five winners at 23/10, 23/10, 11/4, 5/2 and
4/1 which paid out over £5,300.

If you can set aside your starting bank, accept a number of losing weeks
and be patient, you will be rewarded with five winners once a season plus
a couple of four winners from five.

Smaller stakes can of course be used to begin with.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 17

Module 5
Use The Experts View To Find Your Winners

I was looking through the Racing Post paper a while ago and in
particular the brief description about each horse for every race called
'Spotlight'.

This three or four line paragraph is all the expert who is doing the race
has to give us about the horses past form, overall profile and chance in
the race and I wondered if there was any way that this could be used to
help find a winner or two.

Incidentally, whoever writes the Spotlight section in the Racing Post,

also writes the Verdict at the end and compiles the Betting Forecast too.
Bearing in mind they are pricing up the race, it is worth looking out for
when the Verdict selects a horse at say 8/1 or bigger, as they have gone
through the race in fine detail and still pick something they have not put
in as one of the first two or three favourites, so there must be something
about this selection that has some value and is worth a small each way
bet.

Anyway I digress. Back to the Spotlight description and how you may
like to go through these each day to see if you can find something that
stands out compared to the rest of the field.

I would suggest you only want to do this in races for older horses and in
the main handicaps as these horses have a few years of form for the
Racing Post expert to go over and therefore a more accurate Spotlight
description hopefully.

What I decided to do was start each horse with a zero and go through the
description giving one point for a positive comment and taking off a
point for a negative comment, then add up the points to see if anything
stood out.

The first race I 'rated' was the 2.20 at Musselburgh and my scoring to the
spotlight description is shown below so you can see how I got the score
for each runner.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 18

Court Of Law +1
Changed hands after cosy Irish point win last May; +1 comfortably held
when third in two novice hurdles this season (2m4f/3m1f) -1 but has
scope to make some progress on today's handicap debut +1

Bobs Legend -3
Pulled up over C&D on last month's stable debut -1 and was soundly
beaten when dropped back to 2m at Catterick recently -1; others much
more appealing. -1

Urban Kode +2
Held on gamely to score over C&D (good) eight days ago +1, his third win
over hurdles +1; only due to go up 4lb +1 but takes his chance under 7lb
penalty today.-1

Pixie Cut +2
0-10 over hurdles -1 but edging down the weights +1 and ran fairly well
from the front when fourth at Uttoxeter (2m, soft) recently; +1 well
worth another crack at 2m4f and could have a say.+1

Sendiym +3
Won pair of good-ground 2m4f handicap hurdles at Sedgefield in
September +1 and went close off today's mark over fences this following
month; +1 never really threatened when returning from break on the Flat
last week -1 but is a player if that run did him good +1 and cheekpieces
refitted.+1

Ceilidh +1
Tailed off when making handicap debut at Newcastle (2m, soft) in
December; -1 not yet fully exposed+1 but needs today's longer trip to
unlock some improvement.-1

So the ratings for this race gave Sendiym the top figure with a +3 and he
went on to win at 11/4.

Other Races Rated

Looking at the other races that I rated this way, I found that a horse
needed a +3 in total at least to be considered with quite a few races
having a top rated of only +2, so I left these alone.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 19

There were a couple of other notable successes yesterday and they were:

3.30 Musselburgh
Silver Duke +4 Won 6/1
Improved form when third in C&D juvenile contest on New Year's
Day +1, his fourth start over hurdles, and subsequent handicap third
back here was also a good effort +1 (form been well advertised by
winner); +1 should make his presence felt again.+1

Silver Duke was joint top rated at +4 with Ginger Jack who came second.

6.10 Chelmsford
Third Strike +3 Won 9/4
Can start slowly -1 but took advantage of reduced mark when
breakthrough winner at Kempton (1m2f) early this month +1 and
followed up in good style in apprentice handicap at same track last
week; +1 escapes a penalty +1 and hard to beat if things go his way off 1lb
lower.+1

Of the other races I rated where the top rated was +3 or better, I had
2.30 Musselburgh Light The City Lost 7/2, 3.40 Sedgefield Stilo Blue
Native Lost 5/2, 4.05 Musselburgh Endeavour 3rd 7/2 and 4.15
Sedgefield Ballymoat Lost 7/4.

So a 7 point profit for the day.

Another example race.

I have gone through the 4.10 Warwick Handicap Chase today with the
plus and minus values for each runner.

Orange Nassau +2
Had a good time of things last season, winning three handicap
chases, +1 and returned from a summer break with good second off 1lb
higher mark at Carlisle in October; +1 not so good there next time and
well held (excuses first occasion) since; -1 has form over this C&D +1 and
not discounted +1 but will need to bounce back to very best.-1

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 20

Union Jack D'ycy +1
Course winner +1 who returned to winning ways at Towcester in
November +1, keeping on strongly +1 in uncompetitive event; -1 no
impact in either start since -1 and although this is less demanding +1, he
is still 5lb higher than for the Towcester success.-1

Carli King +5
Started out in handicaps off a lowly mark and steadily progressive in the
last year or so +1, winning three times +1, most recently in 3m5f
handicap at Market Rasen on Boxing Day (made all); +1 not in the same
form at Catterick last time -1 but smaller field will help +1 and conditions
ought to suit; +1 one to take seriously.+1

Ballypatrick =
Only rules win came in Fakenham novice chase two years ago; -1 ran
some good races in competitive staying handicaps last season +1 and
satisfactory return in November; +1 disappointed at Fontwell last time
though -1 and vulnerable -1, despite continuing to ease down the
weights.+1

Loughalder +1
Won a couple of times over C&D last year +1, including this race off a
15lb lower mark +1, and should be somewhere near peak fitness after a
couple of runs this time round; +1 on the downside, he hasn't done a
great deal in either -1 and comes with risks attached. -1

Safran De Cotte =
Been a while since his last win -1 and although he's a thorough
stayer +1 and on a handy mark +1, he was a shade disappointing here
last time; -1 extra yardage here won't inconvenience him +1 but might
prove vulnerable once more.-1

Qulinton +3
Made all to win over 3m3f at Stratford in May +1 (hurdles -1) and racing
off a 9lb lower mark now; +1 best run for a while when third over 3m6f
at Bangor a fortnight ago +1 and dangerous off the same mark if that
wasn't a flash in the pan +1.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 21

So that is how you can go through a race fairly quickly and get your own
ratings going by what the experts description of each horse is.

Please Note:

This race at Warwick was unfortunately abandoned due to waterlogging

but you can see how to go about using The Spotlight description in the
Racing.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 22

Module 6
How To Rate A Race Using Simple Form Reading Skills

I thought I would go through a race showing how it is easiest to see

which horses have a chance in a race and to be able to disregard those
that shouldn't be close to winning.

I find it easier to look at a better class race, so for me I wouldn't bother

'rating' a race that was class 5 or lower although I am not saying I
wouldn't bet in one, just that the form for the runners can be patchy and
a little unreliable.

Also I prefer races that have a good amount of form for all of the runners
and this will normally lead me to handicaps as you can also compare
handicap marks, which is easier than working out a pound here and a
pound there in non handicaps.

There is only one class 4 race today, the rest are 5's and 6's and this is the
3.35 Southwell. It is also a handicap and only has 9 runners so it is an
excellent opportunity for an each way bet if our selection is at a bit of a
price.

So the main categories we have that I look at are:

Class - has the horse won in the class or better before?

Going - has the horse won on the same or similar going?

Course and distance - has the horse previous form on the course and
distance?

Strike rate - how often has the horse won and placed before?

Days since it last won

Its current handicap mark - is it too high compared to the last win?

And to some extent the jockey and trainer and their form together.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 23

I am not one for hours and hours and form research, I don't believe you
need to spend more than half an hour on any particular race and for me
a race with more than 10 runners, 12 in some extreme cases, I do not
bother with. There is simply too much effort involved and of course the
more runners, the more horses that could beat my selection.

Where to find the information.

There are many places on the internet that can provide all of the
information you need to find out all of the above about each runner. I
personally use the race cards at Inform Racing as the information is
simple to find and you do not even need to move from the one page.

You can view a quick video overview of how simple it is to read the form
using Inform Racing on the link below.

Inform Racing – Overview >>

A points system

What you may like to do is give the horse points for all of the 9 main
criteria mentioned above. Class, going, course, distance. winning strike
rate, place strike rate, days since the horse won, handicap mark and
number of wins on the horse by the jockey.

Lets say a zero for no form, a 1 for ok or fair form, a 2 for good form and
a 3 for excellent form.

So now we can go through the first horse on the card for a Class 4
handicap at Southwell over 6 furlongs. This was a real race, I am just
calling the runners Horse 1, Horse 2, etc.

Horse 1.

Class - I would give this a 3 as the horse has also won in Class 2 and
Class 3 before.

Going - The horse has won on the all weather before (SD) but only once
form 6 tries so I would award a 1 for this.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 24

Course - No wins from two which is inconclusive so again a 1 I think.

Distance - No wins from 5 attempts and so I would give a zero as I

would like to see better than this, especially over a short distance like 6
furlongs.

Winning strike rate - 21%, anything over 20 is excellent for me so

a 3 here.

Place strike rate - Ideally at least 40% would be ideal, 50% would be
better so with only 37% I will award a 1 for this.

Days Since A Win – The horse has not won for 464 days and is a major
negative for me. A win inside the last twelve months is the minimum for
me so it will get a zero for this.

Handicap mark - Today the horse is running off 81 and it has won off 92
before so it is well handicapped however once a horse goes about 6 past
its last winning mark it can be on the downgrade. Positively however the
horse did come second off the same mark of 81 two runs ago, (See this in
the OR last 5 line above), so it could have a chance again off today's mark
so I will award the horse a 2 on this part.

Jockey wins on the horse - Very positive here with a 27% strike rate so
the jockey knows the horse well and I will award a 3 for this.

A couple of other things I will look at if need be when I have worked out
all of the runners, is the trainer form for the last 14 days, the horses form
going right and left handed depending on today's race and the age of the
horse. For this horse these are all positive with the horse only being 4
years old. Once a horse is 8 or 9 and running against much younger
rivals I would call this a negative.

Adding up the totals.

So if we add up the ratings we see we get a total of 14 from a possible 27.

After going through the rest of the field I came up with following ratings:

Horse 1: 3, 1, 1, 0, 3, 1, 0, 2, 3 = 14

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 25

Horse 2: 2, 3, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 1, 3 = 23

Horse 3: 3, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 3, 0 = 7

Horse 4: 0, 3, 3, 1, 2, 3, 0, 2, 0 = 14

Horse 5: 0, 3, 0, 3, 1, 3, 3, 3, 0 = 16

Horse 6: 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 3, 1, 2, 2 = 19

Horse 7: 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 - 2

Horse 8: 2, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 2, 0 = 7

Horse 9: 0, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 0, 0 = 18

So the top 3 are Horse 2 with 23, Horse 6 with 19 and Horse 9 with 18

Looking at the betting forecast Horse 2 is 2/1 favourite, Horse 6 is 5/1

second favourite and Horse 9 is the outsider at 16/1.

Horse 9 has only ever run twice and is a bit of an unknown however the
experts at the Racing Post don't think it has much of a chance putting it
in at 16/1 and Horse 2 has won its last two races so is put in at 2/1
despite going up six pounds today. The horses are 5 years old, 4 and 4 so
no problems there, all have won going left handed (at this course) and all
trainers are doing ok although the trainer of Horse 9 has nearly been two
weeks since a winner.

My Verdict:

If I could get 5/1 on Horse 6 this would be my bet. Any shorter and I
would look elsewhere, probably each way at Horse 9 as he does have an
excellent jockey on board. Horse 2 could well win but has won the last
two and up a further six pounds may struggle here.

You may want to give more points to criteria such as the course form or
the going and this may give you different results but hopefully you can
see how simple it can be to 'rate' a race in this fashion. and using the
Inform Racing cards really does make it easy, in fact I went through this
race in no more than five minutes.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 26

Module 7
Are Market Movers Worth Following?

You hear a lot of talk these days about the betting market being stronger
than ever down to the introduction of the exchanges, especially now they
are firmly a part of betting with Betfair having been online and available
for those in the know to back and lay since the year 2000.

It is thought that the Betfair SP is about as accurate a method for

finding the real chance of the horse in a race and with seemingly many
horses being backed in from big forecast odds on the day, (just yesterday
in the 5.45 Kempton Nuno Tristan won at 15/8 after being forecast in the
Racing Post at 16/1), I thought I would take a look and see if this was an
angle worth following.

I think when you go through the results each day as I do, those that win
at shorter from a much bigger early morning forecast price, seem to stick
out but of course it is not so easy to see all of those that lose.

I began a three week test starting on November 12th recording the

forecast price of all horses from the Racing Post, then added the starting
price the next day, then took all horses that had halved in price.

So a horse that was forecast at 10/1 would need to have an SP of 5/1 or

less to be counted, a horse that had a forecast price of 6/4 had to have an
SP of less than 8/11 to be counted.

Big Priced Outsiders

Well on the first week I thought I was on to something as the level stakes
profit just to SP was a very healthy 31.95 points and to Betfair starting
prices that shot up to a staggering 79.62 points!

Align that with a decent enough strike rate of 27% and I thought I may
have found a new holy grail :-)

However, when checking through my results I found that one horse,

Queen Of The Stage, had won at 25/1 63.93 BSP), after being forecast at
66/1 in the morning and clearly had made a huge difference to the profit

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 27

made that week and another winner at 14/1 (16.6 BSP), also made me
wonder about just looking at the bigger priced horses as overall there
were 2 winners at double figure prices and 16 losers but a profit to
Betfair Starting prices of a whopping 62.53 points.

The second week of recording between November 19th and 25th

however, showed that there were 11 double figure selections here and all
of them lost, and the third week of November 26th to December 2nd
showed 20 selections that all lost, whilst even a profit of 15.53 points still
over the three weeks, nothing very exciting I don't think and with a strike
rate of just 2 from 49 bets (4%) it would take a lot of determination to
wait and just follow these bets.

The Shorter Prices

So then I reviewed the results and looked at the shorter end of the
market and was quite surprised by what I saw, bearing in mind how
many of these horses backed in from the forecast prices I believed went
on to win.

I used a maximum SP of 3/1 as I considered these to be horses that were

more than fancied and would also probably be one of the first three in
the betting at the off. However results were surprising.

Week 1 showed a profit to SP of just 3.46

Week 2 showed a profit to SP of just 0.75

Week 3 showed a loss to SP of 5.79

An overall loss of 1.58 points to SP, on horses that we would assume

were fancied and had been backed down in price to win. Also, Waabel
won in the third week at 6/4 but had an BSP of 4.79 so making a big
difference to the final tally being so much bigger than the starting price.

The stats for just these three weeks are quite interesting when looking at
those backed in from a forecast price of twice or more to an SP of 3/1 or
lower.

Week 1 had 28 winners from 72 bets at a strike rate of 39%

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 28

Week 2 had 27 winners from 72 bets at a strike rate of 38%

Week 3 had 27 winners from 74 bets at a strike rate of 36%

For only a small three week sample these figures are incredibly similar
but do show a small loss of 1.58 points overall.

Looking at every horse that ran during this period that went off at 3/1 or
less and you would have shown a loss of 90.17 points and with a similar
but slightly lower strike rate of 33%. Just backing favourites at 3/1 or less
would have shown a small profit of 0.62 points with a 29.3% strike rate.

Summing Up.

Firstly this research has made me see that despite what I thought about
horses having a much smaller starting price than forecast price, there is
no real advantage in following these horses blindly, if at all.

Ok the average strike rate of 38% is a bit bigger than that for favourites
but the profit or loss shows no significant difference to backing
favourites and whilst I am disappointed my efforts have found no real
breakthrough as I was hoping this post would be when I started
recording results, it has shown that a horse that looks to be backed into
3/1 or less, has no a greater chance than if it hadn't been.

The only angle I thought I may be able to look at was to lay these horses
using some sort of recovery staking plan, however when looking at
results I immediately found a run of six of these selections winning on
the trot.

So you may want to remember this post next time you see a horse
supposedly being backed as if it cannot lose and decide to have the
mortgage on it!

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 29

Module 8
In Running Betting Tutorial

I must admit that whilst I have bet in running before and made money
on my selections, I much prefer to let my bets run in the hope the horse I
am betting on wins. This is the traditional way of betting but the risk is of
course is that the horse loses and the whole stake is lost.

Betting in running gives you the opportunity to make a guaranteed profit

on your selection at any time during the race as long as the odds in
running to lay go lower than the odds that you backed the horse at. Just
as importantly it also gives you the chance to cut your losses at any time
during the race and lose a small amount instead of your whole stake.

This type of bet is exactly the same as traditional trading, either on

sports or on the stock exchange. The only difference is that the odds are
now changing very quickly, and you need to be right on the ball to be in a
position to either take your profit or loss before the window of
opportunity is gone.

It should be noted that when you are betting in running you are working
between 2 and 6 seconds behind the actual live event. This is definitely
the case in horse racing, a little less so in other sports but in horse racing
anything can happen in a split second so by being behind the actual live
action you are already at a slight disadvantage.

The best advice I can give if you are betting in running to take a
guaranteed profit is to NOT watch the race you are betting in on
television and just go by the figures that you see changing on Betfair or
Betdaq. This way you can decide beforehand at what point you are going
to take your profit and at what point you will get out for a small loss and
not be influenced by what you see on the screen.

You may decide to get out if things are going well when the odds of your
runner have halved in price if your runner is leading by two or three
lengths at some stage, if you are not watching the race on television you
can be far more disciplined and professional and just hit the lay button at
the right point - job done.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 30

If you are watching the race on television however and the horse is clear
by two lengths halfway round, it is very easy to keep the bet going in the
hope that the horse will win or the odds drop even further. Unfortunately
what is likely to happen is that the horse suddenly starts to tire or even
falls at the next fence and all of your potential profit is gone. I admit I
have done this many times myself, guilty as charged!

Betting in running for a profit is a totally different way of betting than

the normal way and you have to have a totally different mindset and
attitude otherwise any gains that you make will be swallowed up quickly
with your losses. You will win smaller amounts of money in general
betting in running however done correctly, you will win more of the time
and your losses will be much less too.

If your horse halves in price during the race, you will win your back stake
back each time (less commission) and this is how I suggest you begin. So
in essence if you stick to this idea you are betting at Evens on each bet.
Not great odds but if you can select the right horses that are likely to
shorten in price then you will be handed plenty of opportunities to make
a guaranteed profit each time.

Interestingly you will get the same Evens bet when the odds half in
running for a short priced favourite as you will do with a 100/1 shot, so it
would make sense to perhaps concentrate on those runners that are
more fancied as they should have more chance of being still in with a
chance at the business end allowing the odds to half in price.

However, that being said, an outsiders odds will tumble very quickly if it
shows any sort of chance and big priced runners who may lead from the
start are worth looking for.

Two days ago I found Goadby at Wolverhampton as a selection that was

likely to lead and despite the horse going off at 66/1, its Betfair SP odds
still dropped from 169.82 down to 50.0 in running as it led until the last
two furlongs of the race giving an opportunity to make a profit on a rank
outsider that was hardly ever going to win.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 31

Cutting your losses.

So if the horse is going well then you can quite easily make a profit but
what about if the horse isn't leading as expected or not going so well and
you want to trade out for a loss?

This is where your discipline and mind set will really be needed and
tested to the full, however done correctly you can get the best out of a
bad situation on most occasions. I said before that if the odds of your
horse half during the race then you can make an Evens profit on the bet,
or put another way you can win the amount that you staked on the back
side of the bet. Bet £2 you will win £2, bet £20 and you will win £20 etc..
Well if the odds double during the race then getting out at that point you
will lose half the amount of your back stake.

So for example if you back the horse at 5.0 and it drifts to 10.0 in
running and you backed it with a £10 bet, you can get out of this bet for a
loss of approximately £5 depending on your commission rates with
either Betfair or Betdaq. This means you only need to win half as many
times than you lose just to break even all things being equal.

(In October, our first month providing runners that could be successfully
traded in running, we had 31 bets that halved in price and 42 that didn't.
To a £10 stake this would mean a profit of £310 and loss of £210 making
an overall gain of £100 and this was only for 11 days as we started on the
21st of the month.)

How to trade your bets in running.

So you now know that it is possible to make a success of in running

betting, how do you actually place your bets in running, to back and to
lay?

There are two main strategy's, one easier than the other in my opinion
but they will both allow you to trade in running.

The first is to use the Betfair or Betdaq websites and simply use the back
and lay buttons to place your bets. If you are using either of these sites
then it is important that you know the amount that you will need to lay
when the horse either halves or doubles in odds during the race. For this

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 32

you may need a hedging calculator and you can find one of these at
Oddschecker.com

In the example below you can see that your back odds are 10.0 and you
are using a £10 stake. If you then input half the odds of 10.0, 5.0 in the
lay price box and click re calculate you will see that the stake you need to
lay at 5.0 is £20.20 and this will guarantee a profit of £9.19 if you paying
5% commission. So when you have placed your £10 bet before the race,
go to this calculator and input whatever half the odds of your selection
are and see how much you need to stake as a lay bet.

When the race is off, be poised to click the lay side of the bet and input
the amount required. It would be beneficial to untick the box on Betfair
that says 'Confirm bets before placing'. This means you will get your lay
bet on quicker and be able to trade out successfully.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 33

You will also need to know beforehand the stake required to place if you
want to get out when the odds have doubled and to do this you input
your back odds and double lay odds into the Oddschecker calculator to
find the correct amount, as in the example below.

Here you can see that when your odds have doubled in running from
10.0 to 20.0 you need to stake £5.01 for guaranteed loss of £5.24.

Using Betting Software

By far the easiest way to successfully hedge your bets is to use bet
placement software and the one I use is Fairbot. A free trial is available
for this software and is what I use to place all of my bets, not just any in
running. It is simple to use and allows you to place bets much quicker
than using the normal Betfair or Betdaq interface.

The fairbot software can be used for all types of betting but what is does
best is allows you to hedge out for a profit during a race or 'green up' as it

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 34

is also called, without having to work out any stake amounts and just use
one click when it shows you the amount of profit or loss available at any
one time.

In the example below we have placed a bet of £10 at 12.5 on Look On By

who we are expecting to take an early lead. As you can see next to the
horse there is a box that shows -£0.39 in red and this is the amount I
could take now as a loss before the race which is the difference between
my 12.5 and the lay price of 13.0. If I did nothing at this point and leave
the bet I stand to win £115 and lose £10 but we are now going to trade in
running.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 35

In the next example the race is now in play by 19 seconds, Look On By
has taken an early lead as we had expected and its odds have already
dropped to 9.2. Now the box is showing £3.58 in green and if we click
this box now we could take a profit of £3.58 whichever horse in the race
wins. No calculations or calculators required, just wait for the Fairbot
software to work everything out and when you are happy with the
amount in green, click it and take the profit.

In this example I wanted to show a profit so that you can see how it
worked so I took the screen snapshot earlier than I would have liked too
but if you wanted to follow my suggestions above you could wait until the
horse’s price halved and then the amount in green would be £10.

(As it happened this horse started at 15.5 and went to a low of 6.4 so
more than halved allowing for our pre-determined profit to be made.)

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 36

If the horse didn't lead or did so briefly then went backwards, the odds
would get bigger and the box would keep showing bigger amounts in red.
This is when you need to be disciplined and accept your losses by
clicking when the amount is £5.00 (or half whatever your stake is).

It can be very hard to let this figure go in the hope that your horse will
find some more and get back into the race, admittedly many horses do go
out in price and some to quite an extent before staying on to win but this
is not the way to play in running in my opinion.

As I said before you need to set your mind to in running betting and only
bet this way in a disciplined manner.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 37

You can adjust your in running profit and loss amounts if you want to
but once you have yours set, then stick to it and see how you get on for a
week or a month.

Things to note.

Once a horse starts going out in price it can do so quickly. Therefore it is

essential that you focus on the odds and amounts you are winning or
losing and place your lay bet quickly.

Having discipline is the key. It is difficult at first to accept a loss but once
you do so a few times and win more than you lose it becomes a good
habit to have.

You can aim to win smaller amounts from each race if you like. Aiming
for just £2 profit from a £10 bet is easier than aiming for £10 as the odds
only have to drop slightly to get to this profit amount.

When you are happy with in running betting, you can increase your
stakes and your aims for each bet, just make sure you continue to set
realistic loss levels.

It can be easier to pick a horse that will go a shorter price in running

than to pick the winner of a race. A number of horses will shorten in
price during a race but only one horse will actually win. This makes in
running betting a very profitable angle ONLY IF you are prepared to
be focused, disciplined and quick on the click!

Update: Since this was written, trading in running has vastly increased in
popularity, however the idea remains the same.

You can get more information on this by using the following software
which helps find good in running trades.

http://www.in-running-trading-tool.co.uk/

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 38

Module 9
Jump Racing Tutorial

How do you avoid doing your money when betting on National Hunt
horse racing? By definition jumps racing brings with it an additional risk
every time your horse leaves the ground. So to help you swerve those
rushes of blood to the head you may wish to take a look at these ideas
below.

Sticking to these rules may mean you miss a few winners throughout the
season, and although you may not win a fortune by following them, they
will probably stop you from losing one.

Traditionally the National Hunt jumps racing season would start around
early November and carry on throughout the winter months. The climax
of the season is still the Cheltenham Festival in March, with the Grand
National in April at Aintree, however the Summer jumping season starts
almost as soon as the Winter one ends nowadays.

Here some ideas to use when betting on National Hunt horse racing.

1. If the rains do come in the deep mid-winter, and the going turns really
heavy then look out for horses who have already demonstrated form in
these kinds of conditions. In reality, not many horses actually enjoy
galloping through mud. If you can find a horse or two that relishes
testing ground – even if the price suggests they are something of an
outsider, you may well be sitting on a good value bet. Many punters will
still be concentrating on the favourites despite the fact that they may all
have only poor form on this boggy surface.

2. Previous course form is very important at some jump tracks and if a

horse has run well previously then it can be said to have a good chance.
Towcester is a specialist track in my view with such a stiff uphill finish it
brings stamina to the fore, with many horses out in front looking set to
take the prize, only for the legs to go in the last half a furlong or so.

Sandown and Cheltenham are similar in that they too have stiff uphill
finishes, whereas two other tracks to look out for previous winners are
Fakenham (a very tight little track suited to nippy types) and Fontwell.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 39

Other courses have their quirks and are worth checking out any runners
with good previous form at these.

3. Let’s imagine you have narrowed down your selections in a jumps race
to just two horses. One is piloted by a top-20 jumps jockey, and the other
is ridden by a less-able jockey who gets to claim a weight allowance over
his rivals. In this situation my advice would be to choose the professional
every time. In Flat races, a weight advantage of a few pounds can make
all the difference, and trainers will often make clever use of talented
apprentice riders to gain a competitive edge. Over the sticks however, it
will often pay to side with the proven skills of the experienced horseman,
even if it means sacrificing a little weight to your rivals. After all, they are
a winning jockey for a reason.

4. There is an old saying which says 'never bet odds-on in a novice chase'.
If such a short price is based solely upon a horse’s hurdling form, then in
the long-run you would be wise to steer clear. When a horse is tackling
fences for the first time, it is not the time to lump on with all your ‘hard-
earned’ without the prospect of at least doubling your money. However,
if the horse has already shown some decent ability over fences (boasting
a win or perhaps finishing close up in a previous novice chase) then its
chances of winning as an odds-on shot are probably no better or worse
than in any other kind of race.

Many horses come to Chase races with a high reputation from hurdling
and even despite losing their first one, two, or three Chases often still go
off at odds on or very short indeed, due to the past Hurdling form or
perhaps they are trained by a top Trainer who everyone expects to sort
the horse out and get jumping again quickly.

5. One of the biggest betting minefields in jump racing is when top-flight

horses are on the comeback trail after injury. This is precisely when to
treat horses with caution, but all too often punters will jump right in and
throw this caution, and their money, to the wind.

It is very difficult for a trainer to bring a top horse back into a high-grade
contest at the same level of form as before the horse suffered an injury.
Yet just because a horse is seen once again on a race-track, many punters
will expect to see this kind of form repeated first time out.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 40

Bookmakers will take advantage of this high-expectation and keep prices
short – based purely upon the animal’s reputation and historic form. But
the low prices are not a true reflection of the horse’s actual chance of
winning on the day. Of course you can take advantage of this by getting a
better price on your fancy which hopefully will be fit and proven to be in
form.

6. During the course of the jumps season there are several two mile
handicap hurdles with bountiful pots of prize money. Finding the winner
in these races is incredibly difficult as they tend to be over-subscribed
and doggedly competitive down to the money and the number of horses
who can run well at this short distance.

A more fruitful avenue to take would be to concentrate upon the longer

handicap hurdle or chase races run over three miles plus. These stamina-
sapping contests are more likely to be won by distance specialists who
have already proved they can stay the longer trip. Winning stayers have a
habit of cropping up in these distance handicaps time and again.

Another good reason for betting in these longer races is that the pace is
much slower in general, meaning less accidents by the not so clever
jumpers, allowing less chance of the better horses being brought down or
coming a cropper in some other way due to a bad jump by an outsider.

7. If you can spot the true jumping stars who bend their back and jump
seemingly for fun, tackling obstacles with relish, then you will unearth a
plentiful seam of winners over time. If you can watch the races on
television, look out for horses that jump quickly over a fence and get
back into the rhythm of the race just a fast. You see many horses jump
high or slowly at a fence then lose two lengths getting set again and these
are not animals you want to be backing.

It is worth noting down these quick jumpers and following just these
throughout the season, I am sure it will pay dividends for you.

8. If you are looking for a bit of value when betting on the jumps, it is
usually worth looking away from the very top trainers such as Paul
Nicholls and Nicky Henderson.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 41

I am not saying that they do not have decent priced winners, they do, but
very often their runners will be shorter in the betting than they possibly
should be simply because they are the trainers of these horses.

Look for horses with similar or better form, running in the same class in
general but for a smaller yard or trainer with a less of a reputation than
the horses trained by the big guns and you will be amazed at some of the
winning prices you will get.

Similarly, horses ridden by the real ‘in favour’ or top jockey are often
much shorter than they should really be simply because the champ is on
board.

Just try and think of these when you are going through your jumping
bets and hopefully your Winter season won't finish 'flat'.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 42

Module 10
Handicap Betting System

This betting system finds a horse that is not carrying too much weight
and is being ridden by one of the better jockeys. These two factors
combine for a powerful each way system at decent odds.

Races used: All handicap races for 3YO+, not just 3 year olds or 2 year
olds and 8 plus runners.

1 . Find the weight that both the top weight and bottom weight are
carrying. On the card above or alongside the jockeys name, are three
numbers. For example: 6 9-7. This means that the horse is six years old
and is set to carry nine stone and seven pounds.

Next work out these weights in pounds and there are 14 pounds in a
stone. So for example, if the top weight carried 9 stone 7 pounds (9 x 14
+ 7 = 133), and the bottom weight was to carry 8 stone 2 pounds (8 x 14
+ 2 = 114), then 133 - 114 = 19, divided by 2 and rounded up = 10.

So take 10 pounds off the top weight which is 123, divide by 14 and you
get 8 stone 8. Now note all horses in the race carrying 8-8 or less.

2. If any of these noted horses are being ridden by one of the top five
jockeys at the course, this table can be found near the race card page in
any newspaper, then move on to number three.

3. If the horse has won at the same distance of the race in question, then
move on to number four.

4. Finally the horse must be quoted in the betting forecast (or in the live
market at), 5/1 or bigger.

5. If a selection qualifies on all the above, then back the horse each way.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 43

Module 11
Yankee your way

The Yankee bet consists of four selections covering 11 bets which are six
doubles, four trebles and one fourfold and bookies absolutely love it
because whilst it promises to offer a really good pay out, and the bookies
like to promote it in this way, this doesn’t happen very often.

Picking one winner alone can be quite difficult but the chances of picking
two, three or four are very slim indeed and you need at least two winners
to get any sort of return.

Of course, if you can get just two or three winners up at once then you
will be guaranteed a decent pay out. Get all four in at odds of just 2/1 and
for an £11 stake, you will still pick up £243.

The main problem is, finding four good bets all on one day and this
limits the backer to choosing four selections on a day when there may
not be many value bets around.

So this is where the clever part of the Yankee comes in, because I am
going to show you how to spread your Yankee bet over a couple of days
or even weeks if you wish, allowing you to wait for when the right bets
come along.

How and where to place the bets.

You can place this bet at either an online bookmakers or on the betting
exchanges.

Your four selections are of course A, B, C and D and you are using a total
of eleven bets so at £1 a bet it will be a total of £11 and I do suggest that
as always you start off with small stakes and build up to larger ones over
time.

The selections – horses, greyhounds, football teams or whatever – can be

found at any time, so the first bet may be on a Monday, the second bet
may be on the following Saturday or even later.

Remember you are trying to be ‘clever’ with this bet so be patient and
wait for a strong chance before placing your first stakes on selection A.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 44

I will use £1 stakes here for these examples.

First you place 7 X £1 on horse A to cover:

3 doubles A+B, A+C, A+D

3 trebles A+B+C, A+B+D and A+C+D

1 fourfold A+B+C+D

Winning sequence.

If selection A wins, the return in total including your stake, PLUS 3 X £1

is placed on horse B.

This £3 covers:

2 doubles B+C and B+D

1 treble B+C+D

If selection B wins, the return MINUS the double winnings for A+B are
placed on horse C PLUS the final £1 to cover the double on C+D.

If selection C wins, the return MINUS the double winnings for A+C,
B+C and the treble A+B+C are placed on horse D.

Losing sequence.

If selection A loses, you continue to put the £3 on horse B to cover the

two doubles and one treble above.

If horse B then loses you place the last £1 on horse C to cover the double
C+D.

It is a good idea to write all of the bets down in the sequence so you can
follow each bet and carry winnings over etc.

Summarised the bet is as follows.

£7 on selection A to cover A+B, A+C, A+D, A+B+C, A+B+D, A+C+D and

A+B+C+D.

If A wins, all returns plus £3 on B to cover (B+C, B+D,B+C+D)

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 45

If B wins, returns plus £1, minus returns for double A+B are placed on C
to cover C+D.

If C wins, returns minus returns on A+C, B+C, A+B+C are placed on D.

You can now take your time over a number of days and place the bets
that you really want to place for a decent pay out.

Just one winning double both at odds of just 5/2 will cover the whole bet
so if you try and make this your minimum stake on two selections, you
will at least get your full stake back if just two selections win.

I don’t want to tell you to stick to favourites or shorter priced selections,

but these do win far more often than the outsiders do. If you want to bet
in the 8/1 to 10/1 area or bigger, whilst the pay outs will be superb on
even just a partially successful bet, you will be waiting a very long time to
get more than two winners most of the time.

I prefer to stick to selections between 5/2 and 5/1 and can still regularly
get returns of 30/1 or 40/1 to my overall stake.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 46

Module 12
Favourites – To Back Or Not To Back

A used to work with a bloke who bet on nothing but the favourite in a
race and guess what? He was never ever in profit over the long term.

Did this seem to concern him? Not at all. "It's the most fancied horse in
the race" he used to say. Well a fat lot of good that did him. However
there are a lot of people like him out there and in a way it is easy to
understand why they continue to bet on the favourite in every, all nearly
every race.

It can be true that the best horse in the race is the favourite but this does
not mean it will always in win. In fact 70% of the time when the favourite
doesn't win actually proves this point and bearing in mind an average
winning price for the favourite is about 2/1, mathematically at these
prices it is almost impossible to win.

Plus when the favourite is a bigger price at say 3/1, 4/1, 5/1 or more it
actually has a lesser chance of winning as the race is either more
competitive or there are a large number of runners giving the favourite
horse more runners to beat.

What I am not saying is never back favourites, all I am saying is make

your selection through solid form reading guidelines, feel confident that
your horse has as good a chance as any, actually a better chance than
most would be better, and then if your selection is favourite by all means
go ahead and back it if you are happy with the price.

I often like to go through a race without looking at the forecast betting

prices and then make my decision, or after evaluating a race, try and
guess the forecast prices myself. It is quite amazing how inaccurate you
can be sometimes! A horse that looks a dead cert to be odds on actually
starts at 5/1, drifts out to 8/1 and comes home last.

By trying this on a few races each day it will improve your form reading
no end and after a while you will start to get more attuned to how the
forecasters come to their decisions.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 47

I would always suggest that the Racing Post forecast is the most accurate
of them all, far better than any daily newspapers anyway.

Another important reason why betting on favourites is not a great idea is

the betting market fever itself. Ok I know many horses are backed in the
market every day and one coming in from say 12/1 into 6/1, then 5/1 and
from a known gambling yard, does make people want to jump on board
but when a horse is backed from third or fourth fav into favourite it
seems to make people lose all sense of reality and they can't help but
lump on.

The problem with this? Well the problem is that the horse, once backed
into favouritism, will now continue to shorten and shorten beyond any
value price as the ‘sheep’ panic more and more with larger amounts of
money on this good thing that supposedly simply cannot lose.

But believe me they do and I can speak from experience. Is it me or do all

short priced favourites lose when you have two or three times your
normal stake on them? Worse still if you have not taken a price then you
are in big trouble long term, even if this one does come in as you will be
getting a large percentage less of a price than you should have got. You
should really figure out what price you will be happy to take and if it is
below that then leave it until another day, favourite on not favourite.
Easier said than done though eh?

Finally, if you are a favourite backer you will know that around 30% of
all these will win, however, the second favourite wins about 21% of all
races and the third favourite wins about 12% of all races which means by
backing these two runners together, you can get about the same strike
rate but surely overall a better SP even taking into consideration you are
backing two horses in a race.

This should be something to give consideration to anyway, especially in

cases where you have a shortish priced favourite at 2/1 or less in a
handicap of say 12 runners or more. Here again this favourite will often
be over bet by the 'mugs' and could leave the other players lapping up
better prices on the second and third favourites in the race.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 48

Module 13
Compile Your Own Betting Forecasts and Find Value Bets

There are a lot of professional gamblers who bet in a way that would
seem alien to most and that is by looking for a value price on any runner
in a race rather than looking at the form and finding the horse with the
best chance of winning.

And they do this by compiling their own betting forecasts and comparing
the prices that they come up with against the actual betting close to the
race time. If they can accurately predict the prices that the runners
should be, they can then find horses that are out of sync with these at
bigger prices and gain value on their bets.

When I first heard about this idea I was confused as to how they actually
did it but I read Mark Coton's 1990's book 'Value Betting' and read about
his methods for forecasting the prices of a race and found his method to
be fairly easy to replicate even if you didn't use exactly the same criteria
as him. It also showed me a good way of actually giving each runner a
price, something I had found quite difficult to do before.

What you need to do is find the most important form criteria that you
would use to read the form of a horse. Mark suggests six categories
which are Trainers, Jockeys, Distance, Going, Overall Form and Recent
Form. He then suggests awarding 25 points to each category to make up
a total out of 150.

You also do not need to find six categories or you may want to find more,
it is up to you however the more you have that are not too relevant the
longer it will take to price up a race.

For me I think it should be more about the horse than anything else but I
personally feel that a good jockey is important so would keep this
category for sure. I think we all have our favourite and not so favourite
jockeys, ones that you automatically feel happy with once you see they
are riding your selection.

They may not be one of the top jockeys, they may even be a claiming
jockey but whatever they are they instil a certain amount of confidence

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 49

when riding your horses so you may want to give 25 points for a top
jockey that is also one of your favourites, 15 if he is one of the top jockeys
but not a particular favourite of yours and 5 or 10 if he is okay, a decent
three pound claimer or has won on the horse before, something like that.

Regarding form I would place more relevance on recent form but if a

horse is running in a handicap it is always worth looking at its last
winning handicap mark.

If it is below its last mark within say five or six I would award the horse
maybe 15 or 20 points and if it is running for the first time today below
its last winning mark after being hiked up in the weights after this win I
would award the horse 25. If it is up to six above its last winning mark
maybe 15 and anything else a zero.

For its recent form you could award 25 points if it has won twice within
its last 3 runs, 20 if it has won once, 10 if it has won within the last year
and 5 within two years.

There are many different ways to look at recent form and some astute
backers actually downgrade horses with very good recent form in
handicaps as they may be two high in the weights or even rather over the
top now after some very good recent runs.

By backing horses with very good recent form you are just more than
likely to come up with the favourites in a race and finding real value here
is very difficult so if looking at handicaps you may want to just award
points for its current handicap mark and then, as with the trainers, just
confirm to yourself that the horse is in decent enough form to run well.

A recent second or third should be enough here and a horses strike rate
should be taken into consideration for its overall form as some horses
really do not win very often and a higher mark should be given to those
that do, say anything with a 20% or better strike rate gets the full 25
points.

Two other important factors to be taken from Mark Coton's list are the
distance and the going.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 50

Some horses are run in races that they have no chance in to get their
handicap mark down for a future engagement and running a horse at the
wrong distance and on the wrong going is a great way of doing this.

It is always worth looking to see how many races a horse has won at a
distance or on the going and will be an important part of your
calculations to see which horses are likely to fair better.

Your newspaper betting forecast will probably have a horse that has won
its last three runs in as a short priced favourite however this horse may
be running over too long a distance and on too soft a going than it would
prefer and this gives you a chance to know more about each runner and
work out the price that the horse really should be.

Other factors that may not necessarily need points rewarded but should
be looked at are the draw and class of race. Just satisfy yourself that the
horse isn't drawn to poorly for the race and that it has run well or won in
the class of race it is now running in.

Once you have allocated your points for each horse and category you
need to work out what price you think each runner should really be.
Mark Coton suggests that a horse gaining the full allocation would be an
Even money shot or odds on and from here you can work out the rest of
the field. A list of the main prices written below is also necessary for this.

2/1, 5/2, 3/1, 7/2, 4/1, 9/2, 5/1, 11/2, 6/1, 7/1, 8/1, 9/1, 10/1

I have altered Marks opinion about the number of runners in a a race so

up to 14 runners you allow one point in the betting for every 10 points off
the maximum (150). So if a horse scores 120, this is 3 times ten points off
150 so three along on the list is 3/1, a horse that scores 100 would be put
in at 4/1.

A race of 15 runners and over you would allow two points for every ten
off the 150 so a horse scoring 120 here would be put in at 9/2.

Mark also suggests a horse that scores less than half in any of your form
categories should be dismissed but I am not sure about this. A horse with
a very low total will obviously be worth avoiding and a price won't need
to be allocated.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 51

When you have your betting forecast you can compare it with the prices
in the actual race and look for something that is a stand out at a price
much bigger than you have on yours.

For example you may have a horse that you have worked out should be
3/1 yet it is available at 12/1 just before the off. You may even have a
horse that scored maximum points and is available at 5/2 and while this
is not a massive price you have worked out it should be around Evens or
odds on perhaps and this is what getting value is all about.

It can be a very interesting exercise working out your own betting

forecast and seeing how you compare with the real one on the day and
when you do pick a winner at 12/1 that you thought should only have
been around 3/1 it will be very satisfying indeed.

What you don't have to do is back everything that is bigger than what
your forecast is otherwise you will have a lot of losers and a difference in
price of about a point or two is not a big enough gap to say that you
would be getting value.

So just look for one or two that really do stand out at a much better price
and hopefully you can find one or two good bets.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 52

Module 14
Winning Big With Top Weights

It is probably common for people to follow the top weighted horse in

handicaps, in fact when talking to anyone who is not into racing who is
going to the races for the day and wants a few pointers I usually tell them
if all else fails to back the top weight in any handicaps at the meeting.

The top weight in a handicap is officially the highest rated horse in the
field but is weighted accordingly with the lowest rated horse in the race
carrying the lowest weight.

For quite a while now I have been looking at horses that are clear top
weight, meaning they are carrying three pounds or more than the next
horse in the race and I have seen some very big winners taken from this
simple idea. I have seen a 25/1 winner and a 40/1 winner following these
rules in the recent past and is always something I look for when scanning
the cards.

Whilst looking at the results from yesterday I noticed something which

maybe a coincidence but did seem to find a lot of winners using the basis
of this 'top weight clear' idea which concerned looking at a maximum of
three horses in a race.

Here are two examples from yesterday.

4.35 Lingfield 2.00 Wincanton

Cosmic Sun 9-7 (Won 22/1) Merrydown 11-12

Broad Meaning 9-6 (3rd 40/1) Skippers Brig 11-11 (Won 12/1)
Beaubrav 9-4 (2nd 7/2) Palypso De Creek 11-9
Evident Pride 9-2 Khachaturian 11-9

Take the top weight in the first race at 9-7 and work down to the first
break of two or more pounds. Here it is between Broad Meaning and
Beaubrav (9-6 to 9-4) so you will be backing Cosmic Sun and Broad
Meaning for sure. Then you see if Beaubrav is carrying two pounds or
more than the next horse down. In this case it is (9-4 to 9-2) so you will

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 53

also be backing Beaubrav and this is far as you go with this race. If
Evident Pride was carrying 9-4 or 9-3 you would not be backing
Beaubrav as there would not be the required two pound or more break.

In the second example at Wincanton you have the top weight carrying 11-
12 and working down the card the first break of two or more is between
Skippers Brig and Palypso De Creek (11-11 to 11-9) so you will be backing
Merrydown and Skippers Brig for sure. Next you look to see if Palypso
De Creek is carrying two pounds or more than the next horse
Khachaturian. It isn't so you do not back Palypso De Creek.

Please note that If there are three horses all carrying say 11-11, the fourth
horse on the card is carrying 11-10 and the fifth 11-6, you do not bet on
all those above the 11-6 horse as you only go as far as the first four horses
to find this two pound break and this race would not count.

If the weights were 9-9, 9-7, 9-7, 9-6, 9-5 you would take the 9-9, 9-7 and
9-7 from this race, if the weights were 9-12, 9-10, 9-9, 9-9 you back the
top two only and if the weights were 11-12, 11-11, 11-10, 11-10, 11-9 you
would ignore this race.

You can then select from these two or three horses you are left with or
back them all. Small stakes advised or each way perhaps if over 10/1.

Other winners using this method yesterday were:

Double Dizzy Won 7/1. 11-12, 11-12, 11-8, 11-6, 11-6 (Back the top three)

Jetnova Won 4/1. 11-12, 11-8, 11-6, 11-4, 11-2 (Back the top three)

Silver By Nature Won 10/1. 11-12, 11-12, 11-11, 11-5 (Back the top three)

Five Star Junior Won 5/1. 9-7, 9-4, 9-4, 9-3 (Back just the top one)

Incidentally these races were all class 3 or above but as I say I have no
proof that it would not work in lower class races although I do get the
feeling it wouldn't be as good.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 54

To try and clarify the rules for you.

1. Handicap races Class 4 or above.

2. Take the first 4 horses from the top of the card.
3. Find the first break of two pounds or more difference in weight carried
starting at horse number 1.
4. If there is only one horse carrying the next weight down. Definitely
back the top two.
5. If there are only two horses carrying this next weight down and they
are also two pounds or more clear of the fourth horse then back all three
and stop there.
6. If there are only two horse carrying this next weight down but the
fourth horse is carrying only one pound less then back just the top one **
7. If there is only one horse carrying this next weight down (step 4) and
the third horse is carrying two pounds or more less than the second
horse, back the third horse as well as long it is the only horse carrying
this third weight down.

** If you have only one horse to back then this horse must be three or
more clear of the second horse. This horse will be top weight, carrying
three pounds more than the next horse with no more two pound or more
breaks in the top 3 horses.

A break of two pounds or more, a maximum of twice, finding a

maximum of three horses.

I have posted some examples below, those in red are the horses to bet on,
the breaks of two pounds or more that count are underlined.

9-7 9-7 9-7 11-12 11-12 9-7 11-12 9-7

9-4 9-6 9-5 11-11 11-10 9-6 11-12 9-5
9-4 9-4 9-4 11-10 11-6 9-5 11-9 9-4
9-3 9-2 9-2 11-9 11-4 9-2 11-9 9-3
9-2 9-2 9-2 11-7 11-2 9-2 11-6 9-3

Module 15
All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 55
Narrowing Down Your Bets

With the amount of betting there is these days, an average of three to five
meetings a day all year round, it can be difficult to decide exactly what to
bet on and how to make it easier to win.

What you need to do I think, is to ask yourself which races are you likely
to have a better chance of winning in. For you would it be Handicap
races, all Non Handicap races or perhaps just Maidens, Claimers, Novice
events or National Hunt Flat races perhaps? What about the race
distance? Do you have more success in sprints or races over three miles
for example?

You also want to consider the number of runners in a race. I mean, you
would say it would be easier to find the winner of a race in a field of three
than in a field of twenty three, agreed? Less form to evaluate, less traffic
problems in the main, less that can go wrong with the race, less chance of
a trainer trying to hide his horse out the back somewhere, hoping to
deceive the Handicapper for its next run etc., etc.

What I am not saying is just back in races of three, but why not bet only
in races of say, 8 or 9? Just by sticking a pin in the paper you will have an
11% or 12% chance of finding the winner and much better if you do a
little bit of form reading.

By betting in fields of just 8 or 9, and there are plenty of these races each
week, you immediately cut down on the number of bets that you place
and can then concentrate and look forward to those you are betting in.
Betting in fields of 8 and 9 means you get paid for second and third, so
you have a 33% chance or better of coming placed and at least getting
your stake back - NOT LOSING!

However bad you think you are at finding winners, betting in these small
fields should give you more winning bets, or more returns at least and
hopefully will inspire confidence for the future and you could even back
two horses as well to increase your chance of success. Split the stake or
put a little more on one than the other perhaps.

Look for well handicapped horses, horses running 5 days or less after a
recent run, a trainers second string in the race, top jockeys at the course

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 56

on an outsider, last time out winners being bet at bigger odds than you
think they should be.

These are all simple ways of finding your horses to bet on and you only
have to beat a small number of horses to get a return and there are often
two no hopers in a race anyway that can be ruled out for the going or too
high in the handicap etc.

You could bet these each way too and if you bet on the exchanges which I
suggest that you do, you will still get three places paid even if non
runners take the number in the field to 7 or less, although the odds will
be shorter when this happens and also watch out for non runners in
fields that had 10, 11, 12 or more declared that now have 8 or 9 as these
can be bet in now too.

You can bet in races that have 7 or less declared but you will only get
paid two places if you bet each way and for me this makes a massive
difference overall. Three places is key I believe but you may work out
what best suits you betting this way which will hopefully allow you to get
a return on your bets much more often.

Otherwise, one or two single win bets should see you having more
winners and enjoying your racing again.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 57

Module 16
How To Give Money Away To A Stranger

I was looking at my betting over the past few days and it struck me that
some of my betting activity was not only a waste of time, but in some
cases I was almost giving my money away, something I really didn't
think I liked to do!

This got me thinking about betting itself and how it not only takes hold
of us as something we like to do on a regular basis but just how
destructive it can be. I then looked at my last two bets and asked myself,
what the reasoning behind these bets actually was and why I had decided
to hand over £10 on each.

Obviously I hoped that the bets would be winners and with the odds
being 3/1 and 5/1, just one of these would have given me a profit overall
but when I really looked at my 'reading of the form' for these two bets I
wasn't really convinced about what chances each horse really did have. If
I told you both horses lost then this may not surprise you and it gave me
food for thought regarding my betting in general for the future.

I mean, if you just pick a horse without giving any real consideration to
what its chances really are, apart from the fact it's about 5/1 and it has a
good write up in the paper, you are almost offering a total stranger (the
bookie, or betting exchange player), the chance to take your money off
you for free and how many times would you do this normally in one day.
Not very many I imagine!

Yes there is a chance that the bet will be successful but how big a chance
and at what risk to reward is this for you? And what about the long term
consequences of betting this way?

Winning money at horse racing isn't easy and it is only the fact that we
sometimes get a return and the thrill of having a bet that really keeps us
going but ultimately only 2% of all punters make a profit and whilst we
enjoy betting and most of us bet only with money we can afford to lose or
would spend on other entertainment or luxury purchases, the fact is, we
do lose more often than we win.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 58

Turning the tables on losing.

There are three things that you could and should be doing in order to
arrest the situation if you do think you are losing too much, the third of
which is fairly extreme but the most sensible of them all, (and I don't
mean giving up betting totally).

1. If you think you are losing too much, take a break from betting for at
least two weeks. You may be surprised how much you actually don't miss
it and begin to enjoy the extra time you have to give to yourself and your
family and you may even make a decision to stop betting in full after this
time off or just to have the odd Yankee bet on a Saturday for a bit of fun.
Remember what I said, winning at betting isn't easy and if you have been
betting for several years and have always lost in the long term, I can
assure you that this is likely to continue into the future.

2. Get yourself a note pad and write down every bet that you place and
include the date, the time, the horse, the race type which is very
important (Maiden race, Novice Hurdle, Handicap Chase etc.), the stake
and the return if any as well as an honest running total of your betting
profit and loss and your profit on turn over too. I believe some
professional gamblers accept just 5% profit on their turn over so
anything less than this and you should ask yourself if it is worth it.

For example, if you lay out a total of £500 and make a profit of £25 you
have made a 5% profit on turnover.

You may be surprised when you look back and see just how much money
you have spent, but seeing it before your eyes will give you a reality check
and allow you to decide if this is really what you want to be doing with
your hard earned money and make you think what else you could have
done with all the money you have lost. A nice holiday, new furniture,
better presents and clothing for the kids?

Looking at your betting record will also allow you to see where your best
bets are placed. It may be that you just about broke even overall but had
you not bet in races over 12 runners or in handicaps on the all weather
you would have made a good profit and had a fair amount of winnings in
your bank.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 59

It may be that your correct score bets on the football are making you
great gains but whilst you enjoy betting on the horses and the chance of a
quick bet and a win every ten minutes or so, you can’t pick a winner
however hard you try!

Sometimes it is easy to just keep betting regardless, I do it myself all of

the time, and you need to stop and take a look at just what you are doing
once in a while, to take stock of the situation and to decide what route
you want to take in the future, so I would heavily advise keeping a record
of your bets for the next three or four weeks.

3. My final suggestion is one that not many will be able to do but is the
only real suggestion if you want to make a profit from your betting and
that is to imagine putting your life on the line for you bets rather than
just £5 or £10 or whatever.

Before you put any money down, imagine if someone said to you that if
this bet loses you will have to pay with your life. Even worse, imagine if
you had to pay with the life of someone you love - just because you
picked a horse that lost. I know this is extreme but what I am saying is
why bet at all if you sort of think the bet has a chance of winning when
the likely outcome is that you will lose.

Another way is to imagine that you are in a competition and if your bet
wins, regardless of the price or your stake, you will win one million
pounds! How long would you be studying the form, reading everything
you can about the horse or football team or whatever, to make sure you
KNEW that this bet was going in!

And it gets even easier, because you can bet for an odds on horse just to
be placed BUT you have to be sure this will happen, your life or a million
pounds in your pocket in exchange for this decision you make, is on the
line. Why not start just looking for that sure thing to be placed, even if it
is at odds of 1.2 or 1.4 on the exchanges?

If you are only betting when you know everything is in place for a
successful bet each time, you could roll these bets into one big
accumulator and turn your smaller profits into decent ones over time.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 60

It may seem over dramatic but if you ask yourself this question, 'Would I
put my life on this bet?', you will be surprised at just how many times
you say no!

Another way to do this is to make your bets a lot bigger than you
normally would. Be careful here and only do this if you have a sense of
discipline but if you normally throw away £5 on a casual bet, why not say
I am having one bet a day and I am placing £50 or £100 on that horse.

I am sure this will make you want to be certain you have looked into
every angle of the form and if you just concentrate on one race a day, say
with 8 or 9 runners, you will be able to go over the whole race in a
reasonable time, thorough in your research and happy you are confident
the horse has a lot going for it and is running to win!.

There is so much betting now every day, we all get in a habit of betting
on half a dozen or more races just because we can but it just takes a
change in attitude to start betting differently and waiting for maybe just
your one, dead cert, sure thing bet of the day.

If you go about things in the right way, then you may be surprised at just
how quickly your betting bank increases for a change and how much
more time you have to do other stuff in the afternoon.

Having just one bet on a day will give you that one race to look forward
too and give you back the excitement that you used to have with your
betting again.

Its easy to say you are only betting £2, £5 or whatever, but losing lots of
these amounts soon adds up to bigger amounts that we can't all afford to
keep losing and simply becomes a habit, so stop literally giving your
money away to a stranger and start to think in a totally different way
which is to only bet when you really, really, REALLY think that your bet
will win.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 61

Module 17
Value Backing The Favourites

I have to confess when I began writing this module it was going to be

about laying favourites to be placed as I have recently seen one or two
hotpots come well down the field, especially in certain races where they
are over bet.

For example a big name trainer at a smaller course where everybody just
thinks the horse has to turn up to win without really looking into the
form at all. Or a recent wide margin winner running in low grade
handicaps, where the horses at that level are just not consistent enough,
but the short fav has not got over its recent runs and flattens out down
the field next time out.

Find horses such as these and you will be risking minimum liability to
lay these, even for a place but as I say, once I started looking back at
some recent races, I have decided to write this piece on where and when
to back favourites for the place and how in some races on both the flat
and the jumps you can get some amazing value for a very low risk bet
indeed.

You will also find that in the races I am about to discuss, it is not just the
favourite that is of great value just to be placed.

Backing a horse just to be placed is different from traditional each way

betting as you are not betting the ‘win’ part of the bet, but the fraction of
the odds should remain the same or very similar depending on the
number of runners in the race. Traditional bookmakers odds for each
way betting can be seen below.

2-4 runners: no place betting in these races

5-7 runners: 1st and 2nd place = 1/4 the odds.
8+ runners Non Handicaps, 1st, 2nd and 3rd place = 1/5 the odds
8-11 runners Handicaps, 1st, 2nd and 3rd place = 1/5 the odds
12-15 runners Handicaps: 1st, 2nd, 3rd place = 1/4 the odds
16+ runners Handicaps: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th place = 1/4 the odds

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 62

The races I have been focussing on are the races that have between 5 and
7 runners and you will find an average of 4 or 5 of these a day over a year
so plenty of chances to get involved and any race on the flat or over
jumps can be looked at.

What I found when looking back at these small field races was that you
can get some excellent value on not only the favourites but other horses
in the race to be placed, compared to the traditional odds you would be
getting at the bookmakers.

It is not uncommon to find fancied horses at two or even three times the
price that they should be and if the horse only has to beat at most five
other runners to come only second, it should not be too hard to find one
or two of these gems and take advantage of when the prices are out of
kilter with the norm.

Take a look at this race at Wetherby.

1st Palypso De Creek 7/2 (3.8 for the place)

2nd Chester Lad 7/2 (2.26 for the place)
3rd Double Expresso 7/4 (2.0 for the place)
4th Always Bold 5/1 (3.45 for the place)
5th Rivati 5/1 (2.62 for the place)

If you were backing the winner each way at the bookies you would only
get 0.875 for the place part of your bet whereas here you were getting 2.8
or around 11/4!

That is 3.2 times more than you should really be getting despite the fact
that you are hoping to get a bit more by betting on the exchanges and
you have to pay a small commission to on the wins, but for a horse to
only have to come first or second in a race of just five, where it was joint
second favourite not a wild outsider, that has to be seen as getting
excellent value I’m sure you will agree.

In fact in this race with the favourite being 7/4 and the two ‘outsiders’
only being 5/1, it was a tight little affair of course so you could expect a
slighter better price overall but these sort of races are being run all the
time and as you are betting against other people’s opinions on the
exchanges so you can capitalise on these sometimes extraordinary odds.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 63

It is interesting to see also in this race how the place price differs on both
the horses at 7/2 and the horses at 5/1. By shopping around you can be
the value punter on the day.

Other placed horses at short odds in these 5 to 7 runner races have been:

Won 9/4, place price 2.2 = 2.14 times the real place price
2nd 13/8, place price 1.84 = 2.1 times the real place price
2nd 4/11, place price 1.21 = 2.33 times the real place price

You are probably better looking for races that are quite competitive, say
the favourite no shorter than Evens and four or five runners at least no
more than 6/1 or 7/1 so that the prices are in your favour.

Races with two very short favourites will probably work the other way
and you would get a worse price than you should and in these cases it
may be worth looking to lay one or both of these runners to be unplaced.

But looking at one of the examples above where the horse was 4/11 to
win in a five runner race you were still getting 2.33 times the amount you
would in a traditional Bookies, just to come second.

Admittedly these are very short prices sometimes but with a sensible
strategy and disciplined betting, backing these runners in small field
races should prove an effective way of making a profit throughout the
year.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 64

Module 18
Which Trainers To Back And Which To Avoid

I decided to take a look at Trainers and their form last weekend hoping
to find an angle that could help narrow down the field when selecting a
horse or two in a race.

My initial thoughts, without any statistical research, was that a case

could be made for laying many of the big named trainers runners for a
profit as they often had plenty of winners but also had plenty of losers
too.

I am talking here about trainers such as Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls

and Alan King in the jumping game and Sir Michael Stoute, John
Gosden and Mark Johnston on the flat.

Since I am writing this during the jump season in February I will

concentrate on the jumping game and ignore the all weather racing for
this piece.

These jump trainers have large numbers of horses in training and run a
large number of runners every week making their stats stand out from
the others. When looking at the form from the past 14 days, they rarely
go below a strike rate of 20%. So I took a look at all the runners they had
running on a Saturday to see how the big three in jumping fared.

Out of the 29 runners these three had in total together, nine of the horses
won showing a 30% strike rate which is similar to that of backing
favourites, a win and place strike rate of 43% with a further 17 runners
unplaced.

The price of the winners were 6/5, 11/10, 3/10, 6/4, 4/1, 15/8, 1/4, 3/1
and 10/3. The price of the unplaced runners were 5/2, 6/5, 7/2, 10/3,
13/8, 7/4, 11/2, 15/2, 8/1, 66/1, 14/1, 50/1, 50/1, 25/1, 40/1 and 16/1

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 65

With the first six unplaced runners shown here you can see that there is
not a lot of difference between the prices of these and the winners
showing about a fifty-fifty split of winners and losers and this would
show no appreciable edge to either backing or laying these trainers
fancied runners. Certainly not the ones that are within the range of
laying which is up to about 4/1 or so and would work in nicely with the
average 20% strike rate these trainers have.

Checking back a number of weeks, a similar pattern emerged with a large

number of the top trainers runners winning but also losing too and it is
definitely the case when you study the horses that they have that these
runners are more often than not shorter in price than they would be if
they were trained by a smaller yard. If you can find one of these runners
that is priced too low then a lay bet may be a good option for you.

For example take a horse called Souter Point which ran recently at
Market Rasen for trainer Nicky Henderson. This horse had won once in
nineteen previous starts on the flat and over hurdles and this win was
nearly two years ago on the flat at Lingfield and was now having its
eighth run for this top named trainer.

Now despite the fact that the horse had a very poor wins to runs ratio the
horse went off in the Market Rasen race the 7/2 second favourite and
was promptly beaten about 25 lengths into fifth.

Bearing in mind Nicky Henderson had had four winners at Ascot the
previous day, this was surely a case of the bookmakers shortening up the
price of this horse on the basis of who the trainer was and not on the
form of the horse.

Incidentally, in its first five starts for Henderson this horse went off at
5/1, 11/10, 4/1, 4/1 and 10/11 losing each time, again more because of the
trainer than the horse given its poor record in the past.

Trained by someone else, it would be unlikely that Souter Point would go

off anywhere near 7/2 at Market Rasen, I am sure you’ll agree.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 66

So whilst these trainers do have a terrific all year round consistent strike
rate of winners it is wholly possible that their horses are over bet or
shortened up by the bookmakers beforehand so no value can be had on
their short priced runners anyway. So I would find your selection first by
reading the form of the horse, be happy with the price that is available
and then if it is trained by one of the bigger named trainers, gain more
confidence in your bet because of this fact rather than looking for their
runners to back because of who they are and then hoping for a decent
price before the off.

Win and place percentage

Whilst looking at the results from the Saturday mentioned above, I noted
down all the winners prices and their trainer stats for the past 14 days
and came up with the following.

From the 28 races run on the day, 24 winning trainers had a 25% or
better win and place strike rate for the past 14 days (83%). (Add up the
total number of wins and places and divide by total number of runners in
that period then multiply by 100).

I checked these again on Sunday and Monday and found both days
showing a 67% strike rate of winners having a 25% or better win and
place strike rate from the past 14 days.

Whilst this isn’t an incredible percentage it could help narrow down the
field somewhat excluding runners at shorter prices with trainers who do
not have this strike rate, or again it could just give you confidence once
you have selected your bets to know this fact about the trainer.

Some of the winners with trainers having this win and place strike rate
over this three day period came in at 25/1 (42% win and place), 22/1
(33%), 7/1 (40%), 16/1 (28%), 10/1 (33%), 7/1 (67%), 8/1 (33%), 10/1
(40%), 14/1 (39%), 14/1 (29%), 8/1 (31%), so decent winners can be
found using this idea.

You may want to increase these percentages and concentrate only on

trainers that have had a 50% or better win and place strike rate from the
last 14 days. You would be backing trainers in form that is for sure.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 67

One more stat I came up with over these three days is that an average of
75% of all winners had trainers with a 10% or better strike rate at the
course and that is three out of every four winners.

Every day you hear a racing pundit say about a trainer from a small yard
who has just had a winner, ‘oh yes given the ammunition he is a very
capable trainer’ and when they say this about nearly all of them it makes
it hard to separate the wheat from the chaff.

I would imagine that most trainers would improve if they were given
better horses to train rather like if a third division football manager was
put in charge of Manchester United or Arsenal and given better, more
expensive players to work with.

You do of course get trainers on the cold list but a number of these are
people that you have never heard of and probably only have half a dozen
horses in training at most. Where the cold trainers list may be used to
your advantage is when there is a bigger named trainer shown to be out
of form.

From the Saturdays cold trainers list there were four trainers I would
personally recognise as good trainers who have regular winners that had
had 30 runners or more since a win and from their total runners of
seven, none of them won including losers at 4/1, 9/2 and 13/2 so again
this may be useful when looking at a race in detail to find horse to lay or
lay for a place, or just a way of passing over some of the shorter priced
runners.

In conclusion, I wouldn't go overboard about the trainer of a horse, just

make sure that he or she is not on a long losing run and has in your mind
the ability to train a winner in the class of race you are looking at as it
really is the form of the horse that makes it worth a bet in the end not the
trainer.

Hopefully you can take something from this to help narrow down the
field or give confidence to a bet you want to have.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 68

Module 19
The 6 Secrets To Money Multiplication

Making money is not too difficult even in the competitive world of horse
racing. All it takes is a winning bet and I'm sure that you have had at
least one of these in your lifetime. But what happened after that winning
bet and how 'clever' were you with your winnings?

You see anyone can make money from racing, all you need is a workable
method and some discipline to generate long term profits. So the
question is, why aren't you rich?

Like I say, making money can be easy but making the money work for
you is certainly not, which is why I now offer you these six secrets to
money multiplication.

#1 - Set aside a betting bank for automatic profit.

Before you even begin betting , set aside a certain amount of money that
will be used just for your betting and putting it in an account that will
earn you interest while it is there.

Instead of taking your money from a cash machine and using it at the
bookmakers, why not keep it in an interest account and bet online so that
all winnings can then be paid back into it and continue to make money
even when you're not betting.

Even though the interest rates are low, you can still have a savings
account which can be opened with just £100 and access can be made
immediately and at any time. Even this account will make you a little
interest for every £100 you put in. Small beans but it's certainly better
than nothing.

#2 - Don't spend your profits

I know it is tempting to have a nice win, or to see your account increase

by a few hundred pounds and to then think it would be nice to spoil
yourself by getting the latest games console or a new TV or whatever but
acting this way will not make you rich.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 69

It can take a determined person to not spend their money so easily but if
you can hold off and see your profits grow, it will not take long before
you have a 'substantial' amount in your dedicated betting bank account.

Take the example of starting with a betting bank of £500 that makes you
3.5% interest per annum and betting with an aim to win £20 each day for
only 250 days betting throughout the year.

Year 1 End balance of £5,500 Earns £192.50 interest Total =

£5,692.50

Year 2 End balance of £10,692.50 Earns £374.24 interest Total =

£11,066.74

Year 3 End balance of 16,066.74 Earns £562.36 interest Total =

£16,629.10

So you have turned £500 into over sixteen and a half thousand in just
three years and of that over eleven hundred was made from the interest.
Imagine if you had doubled your £20 a day aim every year how much
you would be making, or where this bank account would be if you bet
this way for five years instead of three!

It isn't easy to be as patient as this or that simple to make yourself £20

per day but with discipline and sensible betting anything can be possible.
All you need to do is aim to win a certain amount each day and set those
profits aside. Your life can change in just a matter of years betting this
way.

#3 - Don't throw your money away on cheap bets.

What would you do if you were down to your last £15 and had to place a
last bet just to survive? Would you thumb through the racing pages and
pick a horse with a funny name, or ask your mate who thinks he knows
about racing to give you a solid gold tip? Of course not, or at least I hope
you wouldn't.

If I was down to my final £15 to bet with I would want to make sure that
the horse I was betting on had the most unbelievable chance of winning.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 70

I wouldn't care if I couldn't find a bet for two or three days, I would just
want to make sure that my money was not being thrown away on a fancy
wing and a prayer chance.

So why now would you only bet this way when you are down to your final
ever £15? Why not bet this way when placing every bet you make? If you
want to achieve real success then you will never bet on anything you are
not totally confident about, enough so that you would place your last £15
on the horse. If you have any slight doubts at all then keep your money in
your pocket.

You don't have to bet every day as I mentioned before. Just aiming to
win £20 a day for only 250 days of the year will make you an impressive
sum very quickly and a bet of £15 on a 6/4 shot will win you £22.50
profit. That is how easy it can be if you just have the patience and the will
to succeed.

#4 - Test everything first.

If you are using a tipster or a betting system then test it fully before using
any real money. All systems should be paper traded for at least three
months if not more so that you can see how a system works through both
flat and jump racing as well as through different seasons.

If you have to place early bets then do so with minimal stakes, say £2 on
the exchanges, so that you can see how things work out with no problems
of a real financial loss.

All tipsters and systems have their ups and downs so until you have
proved to yourself that there is something that could be positive in the
long term, I advise you either use minimal stakes or best of all, no stakes.

#5 - Diversify

Once you have begun to discipline yourself and are making regular
profits you should diversify. In other words, don't put all your eggs in
one basket.

One way to do this is to use several different systems or tipping services

that you know are profitable in the long run all simultaneously.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 71

By following three systems for example at once, you decrease the chance
of losing. This is because if one system has a down turn in success, then
the other two can keep good profits coming in. It is far less likely for all
systems to be failing at one time.

Another way to diversify is to bet in different sporting events. You should

always be on the lookout for winning strategies in all events that you can
make your profits from. Don't be put off by backing shorter prices in
football, tennis or golf for example, decent stakes on anything that really
has a chance will prove profitable for you in the long run.

Finally, keep an eye out for any bank account that is paying more interest
than you are currently receiving. Any extra free money must not be
overlooked as whether it is betting profits or interest payments from
your bank, all money is profit and the more that you can get into your
account, the better.

#6 - Shop around for the better prices

Bookmakers differ greatly in the odds that they offer in many events,
while one may be offering 6/4 about a horse, another may be offering
7/4 or 2/1. Even on a £15 bet at 7/4 you are making £4.50 on top of what
you would be paid out if you took 6/4 - a full 20% increase in profits.

You should therefore make a habit of shopping around and you can start
by opening a number of online bookmakers accounts, many of which will
pay you a bonus on your first bet or deposit. Also make sure that you
check out the betting exchanges especially Betfair. Here you can nearly
always get a much better price than with the bookmakers, even on the
shorter prices sometimes too.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 72

Module 20
16 Betting Pearls Of Wisdom

This module concentrates on professional betting advice and strategy

and will give you many ways to help with your betting. These pearls of
wisdom will give you a refresher course on your betting and show how
you can turn losses into profit simply by being wiser and more strategic.

1. The main difference between a professional punter and an amateur is

that the professional spends less time and effort looking for winners and
more time looking for prices. That is the aspect of betting on which you
must concentrate if you are ever to become professional.

2. The best bet in a race is not necessarily the most likely winner. Given
two options on the roll of a dice, ‘any number over two’ and ‘any number
below three’, the first option is the likeliest winner, but, at odds of 2/5
and 5/2 respectively, it would be the worst bet of the two.

3. Sequences, both good and bad, are an unavoidable part of betting. Yet,
whatever your current sequence may be, it does not in any way affect the
chance of your next bet. The fact that you have either won or lost your
last seven bets does not give your eighth any more or less chance than it
already has.

4. The next time that you are tempted to bet a big priced runner each-
way remember that a 20/1 runner-up, when supported each-way at fifth
odds, pays only the same as a 6/4 winner.

Under such circumstances a stake of one point each-way would return

you just five points for your total outlay of two points, equating to odds
of only 6/4.

1pt e/w bet @ 20/1 (2pts staked).

20 / 5 = 4. 1pt x 4 = 4, + 1pt stake back = 5pts

2pt win @ 6/4 (2pts staked).

6/4 (1.5) x 2 = 3, + 2pts staked back = 5pts

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 73

Clearly anything less than 20/1 each way makes an even worse bet and
6/4 winners are easier to find than outsiders even just to be placed.

5. The effect of additional weight is greatly negated on tight horse racing

tracks. The horses are continually running around bends and never get
into the prolonged straight gallop where extra weight would tell. On such
tracks we would therefore expect those at the top of the handicap to do
well.

6. "He will price up the race himself before the markets open…..if he
can’t get the price he wants he won’t even have a penny on, no matter
how much of a good thing he thinks the horse is." Terry Ramsden
describing the key to the success of legendary punter J. P. McManus.

7. Don’t worry about losing sequences, expect them. Provided your bets
are made at a bigger price than they really should be you will come out
on top.

A couple of 7/1 winners at either end of a losing sequence of 28 will

return just as much as another series of 32 bets, all made at even money,
with an alternate win-lose pattern, and comprising losing sequences of
no more than one.

8. As a professional you need to understand that you are betting against

other punters and not against a bookmaker. Terms such as ‘beat the
bookie’ and players who refer to bookmakers as ‘the enemy’ don’t reflect
the mechanics of betting. Your ‘enemies’ are your fellow punters, and the
bookmaker provides a service through which you compete with them.

9. ‘In-form’ and ‘out-of-form’ can be misleading terms in racing. A

trainer can hit a 50% strike rate but if his winners are odds-on it doesn’t
mean he is ‘in-form’. A jockey can ride a dozen no-hopers but it doesn’t
mean he is ‘out-of-form’. To get a true idea of whether someone is ‘in-
form’ we need to compare strike rate against price (actual success against
expectation of success).

10. For some reason punters tend to stake more than normal on the big
meetings. The truth is that high value bets are more difficult to find in
races where there are more serious contenders.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 74

The seasoned professional maintains an ingrained discipline at these
times. If you are operating with a fixed staking method from a pre-
prepared betting bank this is a potential pitfall which will be avoided.

11. Take regular breaks from betting. It helps you keep everything in
perspective and gives you time to analyse your performance. Taking time
out is especially important when you are deep into a significant sequence
of results, and that applies equally whether it be a positive sequence or a
negative one.

12. When properly controlled, professional betting is a very attractive

form of investment. It is vital that you have a betting bank set up
specifically for the purpose.

The size of your bank should be, at the very least, equivalent to the
longest losing run you can mathematically expect multiplied by your
maximum stake, and ideally you should also have a reserve bank of the
same amount. That way you will remain in control throughout the period
of your investment.

13. To have any idea whether you are obtaining value for your bet, you
must be able to price up an event yourself. You have to be able to express
your opinions in numeric terms in order to compare them with the
opinions of the layers.

Merely attempting to select winners is not enough and will get you
nowhere in the long term.

14. Would you do your shopping without taking notice of the prices on
the shelves? When shopping you normally decide, before you set out,
how much money to take and what you expect to get for that money. If
you can’t get it you don’t part with your cash. Similar rules apply to
betting.

15. Spending too long studying a race is often worse than not spending
long enough. If you continue to study once you feel comfortable about a
selection you can become immobilised to the extent that, even if you do
change your mind, you cannot possibly feel happy about doing so.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 75

16. Any method which relies purely on picking winners is both fraught
with danger and incomplete. Staking to optimise returns and the
awareness of mathematically determined sequences are both equally
vital.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 76

Module 21
12 Lessons Of Statistical Forecasting And Risk Management

By author Joseph Buchdahl the acclaimed Author of ‘Fixed Odds Sports

Betting – ‘Statistical Forecasting and Risk Management’.

1. Set aside a betting bank.

Without a proven record of long-term success, any punter should avoid

betting more than he can afford to lose. The most sensible approach to
safeguard against this is to set aside a bankroll for the purposes of
betting, the size of which should not encroach on the need to pay the
bills. If this is lost, the punter should consider the possibility that betting
will not, for him at least, offer a suitable investment opportunity.

2. Research your sport and be selective

There are literally thousands of betting opportunities to be found every

week, and for every one the bookmaker has hoped to stack the odds
against you. To improve your chances of overcoming this disadvantage,
it is prudent to concentrate on one or perhaps two key sporting markets.
Research these thoroughly.

For the smaller, less popular markets, like darts, volleyball, cycling, ski
jumping or swimming, the bookmakers will often know less about the
events than a regular follower of such sports, and may only have one or
two odds compilers studying them.

Be selective and don’t bet because you have to, but only when you feel
you have identified an edge. After all, the worst you can do by not betting
at all is break even.

3. Keep accurate records

For all your betting, keep accurate records of the selections backed and
their prices, the amounts wagered, and the profits or losses incurred.
Keeping a truthful betting history will help you to analyse your strengths
and weaknesses, to assess your profitability and, most fundamentally of
all, to reveal whether you have the talent to gain an edge.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 77

4. Value-bet or don’t bet at all

Winning bets are the only ones that make money. True, but you can’t win
all the time. Without winning more often than the bookmaker has priced
you to do so, the losers will ensure that your betting bank will remain in
the red. Seek to identify and measure value in the odds, through a
comparison of bookmakers’ prices, quantitative and qualitative
forecasting techniques and a professional’s “feel” for its availability. Find
the value and the winners will take care of themselves.

5. Test your forecasting systems

Punters adopt different approaches to forecasting and prediction. Some

prefer to study subjectively, reading up on the news about each event,
and making betting judgements on the basis of information about
injuries, morale, motivation and so on.

Others prefer to quantify information about form, and develop rating

systems to predict the outcome of the next contest. For either approach,
but more specifically for numerical forecasting, test and retest your
systems, and identify significance.

Be wary of spurious relationships, which may misrepresent the

meaningfulness of any significant association between hypothesised
predictors and the actual outcome of events. Remember that if one looks
long and hard enough at a set of data, a relationship of one form or
another, whether meaningful or not, can usually be found. Very few will
ultimately turn out to be profitable in the long run.

6. Identify favourable betting markets

There are all sorts of wagers, from match bets to ante post, scorecast to
handicaps. Every punter will have his favourite type of betting market,
but it is shrewd to focus on those where the bookmaker has limited his
overround.

These include bets where the number of possible outcomes is a

minimum – 2 – and include Asian handicap betting in football,
American sports wagers and 2-way betting in many other fields.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 78

The imposed disadvantage the punter will face is lower, both because the
bookmakers can afford it to be so, and because there is little room for
them to manoeuvre behind less generous prices.

7. Bet singles

For decades, bookmakers imposed preposterous restrictions on the

availability of single bets, where the punter needs only to back the
outcome of one event. Since the explosion of the offshore and Internet
fixed odds betting industry, these restrictions have thankfully all but
disappeared.

Unfortunately, punters fed on the lure of the bigger payouts from

multiples and perms still place these unfavourable bets en masse. For
highly successful bettors, it is true that profits can be enhanced, but the
risks in seeking them, through the larger overrounds and lower strike
rates, will always be greater.

Singles on their own can offer quite reasonable rewards without the
undue worry of losing the betting bankroll early. A punter’s greed is so
often his downfall. Why try to run before you can walk?

8. Back favourites or short prices

Contentious but undeniably apparent, at least in football betting, is the

presence of a favourite-longshot bias. Demonstrated empirically beyond
question in the European football fixed odds market, it potentially owes
its existence to the risk-averse tendencies of most bookmakers, who
would sooner overprice an odds-on selection than expose themselves to
excessive liability by offering value in the longshot.

Backing only short prices will not be enough on its own to secure a
betting edge, but for those who choose to do so, the imposed average
disadvantage is significantly smaller to start with. Backing shorter prices
also means you will win more often and expose your bankroll to less risk
if betting level stakes.

Don’t, however, back a favourite just because it is a favourite. Back it

because you believe it contains real value, and that the bookmaker has
made a mistake.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 79

9. Compare bookmakers’ prices

Really this goes without saying. If one bookmaker offers Evens whilst
another offers 6/5, it would make little sense to take the less generous
price.

Perhaps a new betting account may need to be opened to take advantage

of the opportunity, but provided the bookmaker’s reputation is sound
and the transaction costs, if any, are small, this should not create an
unnecessary distraction.

Also consider the betting exchanges, where you can bet against other
punters rather than against a traditional bookmaker. Despite
commission payable on winnings – usually 5% – the odds available with
exchanges are frequently more favourable since there is technically no
over round to overcome.

Remember, however: do not simply bet because your bookmaker offers

the highest price. Make sure the odds contain value.

10. Identify your risk preferences

Are you a risk seeker or a risk avoider? The answer to this question will
shape your entire staking strategy and money management. Risk seekers
are happy to back high odds and large multiples, preferring the thrill of
big-win gambling to the mundane grind of “win some, lose some”
betting.

Furthermore, some gamblers are prepared to chase lost capital through

ratcheting up the stakes after each losing bet. Be warned: this policy will
NOT guarantee profits, whilst the risks of failure are considerable. If you
prefer to play it safe, a simple level staking plan will suffice, or perhaps a
policy of staking to win a fixed profit each time you bet.

Betting a percentage of your bankroll through simple percentage bank

staking or more advanced Kelly staking can yield significant rewards for
the proven bettor, but he must be prepared to wait out potentially longer
periods of loss making in order to secure a greater payday at the end of
the line.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 80

11. Always analyse your betting record

Money in the bank from winning bets is a wonderful feeling, particularly

if you believe your skill and judgement has earned you that money. Avoid
becoming complacent, however, and investigate whether your profits
could simply have arisen by chance.

If this is the case, they may not come so easily in the future. Even where
you have established significance in a betting history, beware of
unexplained factors that may be accounting for your level of success.

12. Learn how to lose

Perhaps the most important lesson a fixed odds sports bettor should
learn is how to lose. Strange as this may sound, it is actually
understanding how to manage losses and cope with losing runs that is so
often the key to this business.

Having the patience to outlast such deleterious sequences, and the

willpower to resist chasing the losses, is the hardest part of gambling.
Succeed here, and your chances of avoiding outright failure are greatly
enhanced. Simply staying in the game is half the battle. If you aren’t in it,
you can’t win it, regardless of any ability you have at beating the
bookmaker.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 81

Module 22
Simple Short Priced Laying System

This system requires the Racing Post betting forecast which can be found
on the free to use website at www.racingpost.co.uk or in the paper
version obtained from your local newsagent. You can use another betting
forecast if you trust the source also.

Races to look for:

All races apart from any Selling races, (races that have the word ‘seller’
or ‘selling’ anywhere in the race title), no Maiden races, (races that have
the word Maiden anywhere in the race title) and no Hunter Chase races
which will have the phrase ‘Hunter Chase’ in the race title.

Number of runners:

There must be at least 8 runners declared to run. It does not matter how
many horses start in the race as long as at least 8 are declared. Please
note: It is often the case that in the Racing Post paper version a runner is
on a race card but has ‘Non Runner’ in place of the Jockey name and will
not run. You must check this in all races as it may seem that you have 8
runners declared but there may in fact only be 7 or less.

Runners to note:

All horses that are quoted at 4/1 or less in the Racing Post betting
forecast. This will include 4/1, 7/2, 10/3 as well as all other quoted odds
at 3/1 or less including all other odds on shots less than 1/2 not quoted.

From all the runners that are quoted at 4/1 or less, take a look at their
last three runs which are the three figures shown on the card to the left
of the horse’s name. An example is given below.

3-14 Horse A
3114357 Horse B
837-05 Horse C

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 82

The last 3 runs for Horse A are 4th last time out, 1st the time before that
and 3rd the time before that. (The – between the 3 and 1 means a break
between the seasons and should be ignored at all times as well as / which
means a break of two seasons).

Horse B’s last three runs were 7th, 5th, 3rd and Horse C’s were 5th,
somewhere down the field worse than ninth, shown by a ‘0’ and 7th.

What you need to do is add up these last three figures for all horses that
are quoted at 4/1 or less in the Racing Post betting forecast, with all form
figures showing as ‘0’ or any letters such as P, F, B, R, U counting as 10.
The two letters that you must ignore are ‘V’ and ‘D’. These mean Void or
Disqualified and must be ignored. You must also ignore any horse that
has not had three runs.

So for all horses quoted at 9/2 or less and we will suppose that the three
horses above all are, you must add up their last three form figures which
for our example will be:

Horse A 4+1+3 =8

Horse B 7+5+3 = 15

Horse C 5+10+7 = 22

The horses we are laying for System 2 are all those quoted at 4/1 or less
that have last three form figures that add up 16 or more.

In our example we would be laying Horse C as its last three form figures
add up to 22. Horse B is okay as it adds up to 15 and of course Horse A is
fine too.

Important Note: You will never select a horse to lay that won last time
out even if its last three runs add up to 16 or more. For example, a horse
with last three form figures of 601 adds up to 17 (6 + 10 +1 =17) but as it
won last time out it is not selected as a lay bet for this system.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 83

It may be the case that you lay more than one horse in any race and this
is fine and the horses that are selected to be laid do not have to start the
race at 9/2 or less, they can be any price.

System 2 Quick Rules:

1. No Selling races, Maiden races or Hunter Chase races

2. Must be 8 or more runners declared to run
3. Note all horses that are quoted at 4/1 or less in the Racing Post
betting forecast, or your own if you prefer.
4. Add up the last three form figures from these selected runners
5. Lay any whose last three form figures add up to 16 or more unless
it won last time out.

You may want to use a minimum lay price to bet at this is up to you but a
suggestion would be 5.0 so you are laying at around 4/1 or less as well as
using the forecast price of 4/1 or less.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 84

Module 23
Making Each Way Bets Pay

The method in question here is the each way bet. Now before you say you
know all about this bet, that it is quite standard and nothing new, I
would just like to show the best way of using this bet to maximise your
profits and as importantly lessen any losses and show you a way of using
the bet that most would not think of due to the supposedly restrictive
odds on offer.

For those of you who do not know what each way betting is, it is a bet
that places two bets on one horse with one part of the stake being placed
on the win and the second part of the stake on the horse finishing placed,
(second or third for this use of the bet). If a horse gets placed you get a
percentage of the price (one fifth or one quarter), which if the odds of the
horse are 5/1 or bigger will cover the win part of the bet if the horse
doesn’t win.

(Of course you are hoping for the horse to win so as to win a decent
amount, the place stake is a kind of insurance bet in case the horse
finishes second or third).

So, a £5 each way bet at 5/1 (£10 total outlay): The horse finishes second,
you win 1/5th of your stake for the place, in this case £5, which is 1 x £5 =
£5 plus your £5 place stake back, a return of £10.

As the horse didn’t win you lost on the win part of the bet so you have
laid out £10 and got £10 back. Of course, if the horse had won you would
have also won £5 x 5 =£25, but at least you have lost nothing.

From this you can see that an each way bet on a horse at less than 5/1
would leave you out of pocket even if the horse was placed but the way I
play this bet is to bet on horses that are much shorter than 5/1 meaning I
will lose money if the horse is just placed.

However, the way I make this bet pay is to back two horses in an each
way double and by selecting the right races and the right horses you will
at least get your money back most of the time but more importantly get
some very good winnings when both of your selections win.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 85

Let’s look at the place part of the bet first to show you how small the
odds can at least get your money back on the bet.

So, a £5 each way double with both horses at 5/1 (£10 total outlay):

The first horse finishes second, you win 1/5th of £5 for the place which is
1 x £5 = £5 plus your £5 place stake back, a return of £10. This £10 is
now placed on the second horse which also finishes second at 5/1 so you
now get 1 x £10 plus the £10 placed on the second horse making a total
return of £20. As the horses didn’t win, (they both have to win or place
for the double to pay out), you lost on the win part of the bet, but you
have still made a profit of £10.

So why not stick to horses that are 5/1 or bigger for your each way
double? Well even finding two horses to be placed at 5/1 is not as easy as
it sounds – although not impossible, but I am trying to make sure that I
have two horses that will both get placed most of the time and the bigger
the odds get the less chance of this happening.

So I like to look for horses that are favourites whose place price together
with another similar horse will at least get me my money back if both are
placed. The minimum price double that will pay out the same as you laid
out for the place double in simple terms is where the place odds plus 1
and multiplied together give you 2.1 or better.

So a horse starting at 2/1 will pay 0.4 for a place at 1/5th the odds and
another at 5/2 will pay out 0.5 for a place at 1/5th the odds. This 0.4 x 0.5
with the stake added on to the returns will pay you 2.1 for your stake:
0.4 + stake = 1.4, x 0.5 + stake = 1.5 = 2.1. If the stake is £5 you will be
returned £5 x 2.1 = £10.50. You laid out £10 in total so have made a
small profit of 50p.

If both horses had won at 2/1 and 5/2, bearing in mind they were both
short priced favourites and would have a good chance of doing so, you
would have had £52.50 returned, less your £10 stake, making a nice
profit of £42.50.

So now to maximise the chances of this bet being successful even further,
you need to pick the races and there is no magical formula here, I simply
pick the races with between 8 and 10 runners on the day and look at the
forecast favourite in all of these races.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 86

If you can find two races with 8 runners and the favourites are both
acceptable then this is fine but on occasions this may not be the case.
Personally, I prefer to stick to races of 8 runners, 9 at a stretch to give me
the best chance of winning but 10 runners is okay if this cannot be done.
It is possible to not place both bets on the same day if you really want to
wait for the perfect opportunity and I will talk about this a bit later.

So you have your races picked and note the prices for the forecast
favourites. Unfortunately, when betting with traditional bookmakers you
may not be able to get a fixed price for each horse but the betting forecast
is often very accurate and on many occasions the price of the favourite
will be bigger than you expected giving you a really good pay day for a
very small initial layout.

In fact it is not uncommon for a horse forecast at odds of 5/2 or 3/1 to

start the race and win at 6/1, 7/1 or 8/1. Get two of these together in a
double and you’ll be flying very high indeed.

All you can do if you cannot take a price is work out what the place odds
will pay out for the two horses if they do not win. Divide the prices by 5
and add on the stake to make sure that it will pay out 2.1 or greater if
both horses are placed.

For example, if the two placed odds work out at 0.3 and 0.4 you multiply
1.3 x 1.4 to get 1.82. As this is less than 2.1 it would not be worth betting
these horses for an each way double as even if they are both placed you
will not even get your stake back.

If on the other hand you have two horses whose place odds are 0.6 and
0.5 this works out at 2.4 (1.6 x 1.5 = 2.4). Of course, you will have times
when you have larger priced horses maybe 4/1 and 7/2 which gives the
place double pay out of 0.8 and 0.7 totalling 3.06.

So basically, you could choose two races with either 8 or 9 runners that
have the two shortest priced forecast favourites where the placed odds
will at least return my stake and really it is as simple as that. This bet will
get you a return around three quarters of the time when both horses are
placed and decent payout when your two selections both win.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 87

Remember, a £5 each way double on two 3/1 shots will pay out a
handsome £80. Not bad for two favourites who both only had 7 other
runners to beat.

As I said before there may be occasions when you cannot find two decent
bets for your each way double on one day, well if you are betting on the
exchanges, you can carry your winnings over from one day to another
then place the bets again on the horse you choose the next day or
whenever you are happy with the selection.

You can do this because on the betting exchanges you can place different
stakes on the win and place for each race, so your winning bets can be
carried over and split accordingly. You may even wish to wait two or
three days for two decent horses that you fancy, this way you can be
really confident about your selections that should have rock solid
winning chances.

One more way you can use this bet and without any extra cost is to
increase the number of selections to three, four or even more. If three
horses all at 9/4 paying out 0.45 for a place all come second or third you
will profit to the tune of £5.24 for a £5 each way treble and if all three
win you make a fantastic total of £176.88. Pick four horses at 9/4 that all
finish second or third and this will return a profit of £12.10 and a superb
£569.93 if all finish first.

Admittedly this is not going to easy as the more selections you have the
more difficult the bet becomes but, you are betting in races of just 8 or 9
runners and on horses that have a favourites chance so an each way
double or treble should be successful at least once a week or so with a bit
of luck and just a slight increase in price.

Let’s say two of the three horses start at 5/2 and 3/1 along with one 9/4
shot and this each way treble will give you a profit of £234.90 if all three
are successful, an extra return of £58.02 on your three horses at 9/4, just
for a couple of slightly bigger prices.

You can use the each way calculator on the link below which works out
returns for each way doubles.

https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/double.html

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 88

Module 24
Backing System

I just had to share this system with you as it is one of the first I ever
created myself many years ago now.

It is simple to use and based on common sense, so take a look at the

rules and see what you think.

Handicap races only both flat and jumps.

Races with between 8 and 12 runners only.

Go to the free Racing Post website; www.racingpost.com

Open a qualifying race and mark down the five horses with the highest
rating in the RPR column. (Racing Post Ratings).

Then mark down the horses that are the first 5 in the betting forecast
shown below the race card. (Currently free to view after 9am). This could
mean more than 5 if there are some horses on the same price.

Concentrate now on just those that have been marked twice.

From these note the three that ran the most recently. The number of
days since the horse ran is shown by the small number below the horse
name.

If none of these three ran 21 days ago or less, ignore the race.

From those that did, take the horse with the worst finishing position last
time out starting at 6th, then 5th, then 4th, then 3rd, then 2nd. Ignore
horses that came first last time out.

This horse can be backed each way.

Very simple and very effective.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 89

Module 25
Clever Naps System

This system follows the Nap selections of the daily newspaper racing
correspondents and at times these have winning runs and losing runs.
We want to follow them AFTER they have a losing run.

Each day note the nap selection of your selected newspaper tipster. Many
papers have two experts giving tips on the races. You can also choose any
from the Naps table of tipsters in the Racing Post.

It is suggested that you select a list of between 2 and 6 to follow and you
could use the nap and next best selections (NB) from the two in your
daily paper which will give you 4 to follow.

Each tipster is allowed a run of 6 consecutive losers. When this happens

the nap selection is backed using rising stakes of 1-2-4-8 and Stop At A
Winner. Then wait until the tipster has another run of 6 losers on the
run.

If the tipster fails to find a winner from the next 4 bets after 6 losers
(meaning 10 losing naps on the trot which we are expecting not to
happen), then this run has failed, and you lose 15 points in total.

If this does occur, you then wait for the next winner and then a further 6
losers on the trot. At this point you could increase the staking to 2-4-8-16
but this is up to you.

Whilst they are certainly not amazing at picking big priced winners all
the time, the newspaper columnists must be able to select a decent
number of winners to keep their readership happy, so they don’t often go
too long without a winner.

Following them after 6 losers, (you can change this to 3, 4,5 7 or

whatever), you are hopeful that they will soon be selecting a winning nap
and by using a gradual increase in stakes you can cover some losing bets
when you do back their winner.

It is worth taking your time to find the tipsters that suit your odds range
as many just nap odds on favourites and guess what? They don’t always
win!

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 90

Module 26
Identifying False Favourites A Different Way

What I am about to tell you here will help you identify false favourites to
take on as well as bigger priced runners to back, that you probably never
would normally and that is because you will learn how to read the pace of
a race and how each runner is likely to start and more importantly finish.

I am sure you have seen a hundred times before when a short-priced

favourite runs an absolute stinker after being at the front of the race
early on, fading quickly and ending up falling out the back of your TV in
last.

Other times you will have seen a rank outsider with no recent form or
supposed chance in a race, move steadily into the race in the last two
furlongs, breeze up on the outside and win comfortably going away.

On both occasions you probably scratch your head and wonder how on
earth that happened!

Well what did happen is that the pace of the race either didn't suit or did
suit perfectly these horses.

There are two types of horses that are worth noting and the first of these
are the front runners. Horses who prefer to lead and are fast away to the
front. Many horses do like to lead but if there are two or three dedicated
front runners, then they can take each other on, try too hard to get to the
front and use up too much early energy.

And this is when you see horses who have been up the front, fading badly
like the short-priced favourite I mentioned above. On the other hand,
you have those that like to be held up and it is these horses that take
advantage of when two or more front runners are taking each other on.
This allows our big outsider who just sat back and let the others use up
all their energy, to come through and take the race.

The Lone Front Runner.

These are not all bad especially if you have just one likely front runner
because he may get what they call 'an easy lead' and be allowed to dictate
the pace of the race from the front. He could then kick on at just the right
time a furlong or two from the finish, not allowing the horses behind to
get in a real blow.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 91

So what you want to look for when reading a race, is to see how many
horses are likely to be front runners and how many are usually held up
for a late run because it is the pace of any race that will determine who
wins and who loses.

No matter what price the horses are!

So, just the one or two at most front runners means they could get an
easy lead and are worth looking at. More than two or quite a few in the
race, means that you want to look out for those hold up horses who can
take advantage of the likely fast pace.

The best way to find out the pace is to read the previous race form details
and look for words such as Led and Prominent or Slowly Away, Held Up,
Restrained etc.

You can also use www.informracing.com who provide Run Style Figures
for every horse in every race and they grade them as follows.

1. Front runner
2. Likes to be up with the pace, tracking the front runner
3. Midfield runner
4. Slowly away or held up

So if you have a race with just one front runner (1), it may be worth
looking to back this horse to get an early lead. If there are numerous
horses with run styles figures of 1 and 2 and just a couple of horses with a
4, you may be worth backing the two who will be held up to come and
take the race from those who have run ahead early and tire late on.

It will only take a few minutes per race once you get to know what you
are looking for but it may just stop you backing that short priced
favourite who you can now see is unfavoured by the likely pace of the
race.

It may also help spot that 25/1 outsider who you know will be the only
one wanting to lead who will be on his way to winning before the others
have a chance to peg him back! And lone front runners on the flat who
are also well drawn are worth a special look too.

So start to understand the pace of every race and get to know which
horses like to lead or be held up and you will soon be able to unearth one
or two very nice priced winners!

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 92

Module 27
Specialise and Become Your Own Racing Expert

Take one look through the racing pages of your daily newspaper or the
Racing Post and you will see on any given day, anywhere from 5 to 15 or
more very different races being run.

Handicaps
Non Handicaps
5f or 6f sprints
3m or longer chase races
Low grade Selling and Claiming races
Maidens
Amateur jockey races and a whole load more

My question is this. When you start looking for a bet or two each day,
just where do YOU begin?

If you just start looking at the first race and keep browsing until
something or anything catches your eye, it may be time to cut down on
the number of races that you initially go over and begin to SPECIALISE
on one or two certain race types.

If you can find one or two certain types of race that you do particularly
well in, you should start concentrating on just those races.

Even better, if you also actually enjoy looking through the form of those
races and very importantly UNDERSTAND the type of horse that runs in
those races then you are very likely to profit more.

When I first began to specialise myself many years ago, I concentrated

on just 7f and 1 mile handicap races.

These were distances that I liked as whilst they weren’t races for
sprinters, it still requires a decent enough pace, so normally these are
run at a good, honest gallop and unlike a sprint where a horse can start
slowly and lose all chance, this doesn’t tend to happen over 7f or 1 mile.

It gave me enough races to look at each week and allowed me to get to

know the horses that run well at the distance and follow them through
the season.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 93

Once you start to specialise it cuts down the amount of effort that you
must put in and you can become an expert in your field.

Get to know those that like to front run or prefer softer ground for
example and you will be able to see how a race may pan out just by
looking through the race, even before you narrow the field down to a
shortlist and go a little deeper on the day.

If you did start to concentrate on just 7f or 1 mile races, you can then
look into different race courses and see if the draw or going affects what
priced horses normally win.

You could look back at past results for these distances and get to know
the Trainers who seem to win a large amount of these races, or Jockeys
who seem to be able to judge the pace better than others.

Find out if certain Trainers like to bring a horse back in trip or go up in

trip before running their horses over 7f or 1 mile, or whether it is a
distance that doesn’t need too much recovery time with a lot of horses
winning after just a short break from the track

You could look back and see whether winning a previous race at 5f or 6f
as a 2 or 3 year old makes any difference to older horses going up in trip
or you could look back over past Sire and Dam data to see if any stand
out as very good for producing 7f or 1 mile runners.

There is so much knowledge you can learn about just one or two areas of
racing that can set you apart from the others, so why not find your little
niche and look forward to when the next race type you decide to
concentrate on comes around, rather than, ‘It’s just another day of
racing, duh!’

So what races get you buzzing!

I would suggest it would be worth looking at the following to get started.

1. 7f and 1 mile handicaps.

2. 3m plus chases.
3. Good class Maidens and get to know the trainers that win these
and with what type of horse. You can also look at and follow the
breeding in these races.
4. 1m 4f plus races on the All Weather and/or just certain races at
Southwell where the going is different to the other All Weather
tracks.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 94

Hopefully you are keeping a detailed record of your bets and can start to
look over your past results to see just where you do well and where you
don't.

There is far too much racing every week now and by concentrating on a
small percentage of the races each day, those you enjoy and know you do
better at, will certainly be reflected in your profits.

All material in this course is copyright www.informracing.com 2019 Page 95