Stock Report | April 29, 2022 | NasdaqGS Symbol: TSLA | TSLA is in the S&P 500

Tesla, Inc.
Recommendation Price 12-Mo. Target Price Report Currency Investment Style
STRONG BUY « « « « « USD 877.51 (as of market close Apr 28, 2022) USD 1,350.00 USD Large-Cap Growth
Equity Analyst Garrett Nelson

GICS Sector Consumer Discretionary Summary Tesla designs, develops, manufactures, and sells high-performance fully electric vehicles and
Sub-Industry Automobile Manufacturers components, as well as a full suite of renewable energy products.

Key Stock Statistics (Source: CFRA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI), Company Reports)
52-Wk Range USD 1243.49 - 546.98 Oper.EPS2022E USD 11.75 Market Capitalization[B] USD 909.11 Beta 2.08
Trailing 12-Month EPS USD 7.4 Oper.EPS2023E USD 14.00 Yield [%] N/A 3-yr Proj. EPS CAGR[%] 84
Trailing 12-Month P/E 118.58 P/E on Oper.EPS2022E 74.68 Dividend Rate/Share N/A SPGMI's Quality Ranking C
USD 10K Invested 5 Yrs Ago 142,162.0 Common Shares Outstg.[M] 1,036.00 Trailing 12-Month Dividend N/A Institutional Ownership [%] 45.0

Price Performance Analyst's Risk Assessment

LOW MEDIUM HIGH

Our risk assessment reflects the highly competitive nature
of the auto industry and potential execution risk for the
company, partly offset by potential dramatic volume
growth we expect for the company.

Revenue/Earnings Data

Revenue (Million USD)

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year
2024 E 29,611 E 33,578 E 36,789 E 39,459 E 139,437
2023 E 25,178 E 28,079 E 31,479 E 34,178 E 118,914
2022 18,756 E 18,771 E 22,575 E 27,298 E 87,400
2021 10,389 11,958 13,757 17,719 53,823
2020 5,985 6,036 8,771 10,744 31,536
2019 4,541 6,350 6,303 7,384 24,578

Earnings Per Share (USD)

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year
Source: CFRA, S&P Global Market Intelligence
2024 E 3.22 E 3.65 E 3.84 E 4.54 E 15.25
Past performance is not an indication of future performance and should not be relied upon as such.
2023 E 3.12 E 3.15 E 3.62 E 4.11 E 14.00
Analysis prepared by Garrett Nelson on Apr 29, 2022 04:14 PM, when the stock traded at USD 883.00.
2022 3.22 E 2.31 E 2.92 E 3.30 E 11.75
2021 0.93 1.45 1.86 2.54 6.78
Highlights Investment Rationale/Risk
2020 0.23 0.44 0.76 0.80 2.24
u We estimate TSLA’s revenue will rise by 62% in u Our Strong Buy opinion reflects a view that the 2019 -0.82 -0.46 0.16 0.12 -0.98
2022, 36% in 2023, and 17% in 2024, after an completion of new factories in Texas and Fiscal Year ended Dec 31. EPS Estimates based on CFRA's
increase of 71% in 2021. The primary driver of Germany sets the stage for further growth in Operating Earnings; historical GAAP earnings are as reported in
the anticipated revenue increase in 2022 and 2022 and beyond. We also believe Model S Plaid Company reports.
beyond is higher volumes from the startup of its sales will help provide an uplift to price
new factories in Texas and Germany. Much of realizations and that first deliveries of the Dividend Data
Tesla’s capacity has shifted from producing the Cybertruck and Semi could come sooner than No cash dividends have been paid in the last year.
Model 3 to producing the Model Y, which most expect, followed by the Roadster and
debuted in March 2020. Optimus robot. In our view, concerns that Musk
u We see TSLA’s vehicle sales rising 57% in 2022, might have to sell some of his stock in order to
36% in 2023, and 15% in 2024 after an 87% acquire Twitter are overblown, as we expected
jump in 2021. Following the completion of its shares to merely serve as collateral. At its
new factories in Germany and Texas, we think September 2020 Battery Day, TSLA outlined a
TSLA will build plants in India and elsewhere, as plan to reduce battery costs on a $/kWh basis
it executes on its goal to increase annual by 56% and boost vehicle range by 54%.
volumes to 20M units in 2030 (a 40x increase u Risks to our rating and target include weaker-
over 2020 levels). TSLA’s 2021 vehicle sales of than-expected sales growth, less-than-
936K units were up 87% from 500K units sold in expected cost efficiencies, and potential capital
2020. Deliveries are likely to ramp further when raises, as well as regulatory risks.
the Cybertruck and Semi become available u Our 12-month target of $1,350 is based on
starting in 2023. 88.5x our 2024 EPS estimate of $15.25. We
u We see adjusted EPS growth from $6.78 in 2021 expect TSLA to trade at a significant premium
to $11.75 in 2022, $14.00 in 2023, and $15.25 to other automakers, given its growth
in 2024. TSLA’s balance sheet has improved prospects. We expect an acceleration of profits
materially over the last few years, and it as TSLA ramps production and aims to deliver
possessed cash of $18.0 billion versus total on its goal of growing annual auto volumes by
debt (excluding product financing) of only $88 40x over the next decade (from ~500K units in
million at the end of March 2022. 2020 to 20M by 2030).

Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission. Copyright © 2022 CFRA. This document is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment
objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek independent financial advice regarding the suitability and/or appropriateness of making an investment
or implementing the investment strategies discussed in this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such investments, if any,
may fluctuate and that the value of such investments may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than they originally invested. Investors should seek advice concerning any impact this investment may have on
their personal tax position from their own tax advisor. Please note the publication date of this document. It may contain specific information that is no longer current and should not be used to make an investment decision. Unless
otherwise indicated, there is no intention to update this document.
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Stock Report | April 29, 2022 | NasdaqGS Symbol: TSLA | TSLA is in the S&P 500
Tesla, Inc.
Business Summary Apr 25, 2022 Corporate information

CORPORATE OVERVIEW. Headquartered in Austin, TX, Tesla manufactures and sells high-performance fully Investor contact
electric vehicles and components, as well as various renewable energy products, including solar, storage, M. Viecha ((512) 516-8177)
and grid services. TSLA was the first to commercially produce a federally compliant electric vehicle, which
achieved a market-leading range on a single charge. TSLA sells and services its vehicles through a Office
company-owned sales and service network in North America, Europe, and Asia. Its stores do not carry large 13101 Tesla Road, Austin, Texas, 78725
inventories, and many customers choose to customize their vehicles. Tesla has four reportable segments:
Automotive sales (84.7% of total 2021 revenues), Automotive Leasing (3.1%), Services & Other (7.1%), and Telephone
Energy Generation & Storage (5.2%). At the end of 2021, Tesla had 99,290 employees, up from 70,757 at (512) 516-8177
the end of 2020.
Fax
Tesla currently produces four models: the Model S, X, 3, and Y. The Model S is a four-door, five-adult N/A
passenger sedan with a driving range of up to 335 miles on a single electric charge. Deliveries of the Model
S commenced in June 2012. It is one of the quickest and safest automobiles on the market, having posted a Website
0-60 mph time of 2.5 seconds and given the highest safety rating of any car ever tested. In September www.tesla.com
2015, Tesla began deliveries of the Model X, an SUV that seats up to seven adults and is the longest range
all-electric SUV in the world. It offers high-performance features such as a fully electric, all-wheel drive dual Officers
motor system and an autopilot system. The Model X is sold in all the markets where Model S is available, Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Independent Chairwoman
including Asia and Europe. TSLA’s first delivery of the Model Y, a crossover SUV, took place on March 13, Director R. M. Denholm
2020. E. R. Musk
In March 2016, the company began accepting deposits on orders for its newest model, the Model 3, a mass- Corporate Controller &
market, midsized premium electric sedan. Model 3 customer shipments commenced in July 2017. Tesla has Master of Coin & CFO Chief Accounting Officer
experienced numerous challenges in successfully ramping production to meet customer demand. Tesla Z. P. Kirkhorn V. Taneja
plans to sell additional vehicles in the future, including trucks and a new sports car. Vice President of Legal
Tesla also sells and leases solar systems to residential and commercial customers and sells renewable A. Prescott
energy to residential and commercial customers at prices that are typically below utility rates. Since 2006, it
has installed solar energy systems for hundreds of thousands of customers. The segment grew significantly
Board Members
via the 2016 all-stock acquisition of SolarCity.
E. R. Musk K. Musk
MARKET PROFILE. Tesla’s global vehicle deliveries totaled 936,172 units in 2021, up from 499,647 units in
2020, 367,656 in 2019, and 245,506 in 2018. In 2020, sales benefited from the late 2019 China factory H. Mizuno K. Wilson-Thompson
startup and the March 2020 introduction of the Model Y. The Model 3 had grown its U.S. market share to I. M. Ehrenpreis L. J. Ellison
over 50% of the mid-sized premium sedan market, selling more vehicles than the BMW 3-series, Audi A4, J. R. Murdoch R. M. Denholm
Mercedes C-class, Lexus IS, and Jaguar XE combined. In 2021, the breakdown of Tesla’s total revenues by
country were U.S. (44.5%), China (25.7%), and Other (29.8%).
IMPACT OF MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS. In March 2020, TSLA made its first delivery of the Model Y, a crossover Domicile Auditor
SUV. A $39,000 base version will be available in the spring of 2021. On November 21, 2019, TSLA introduced Delaware PricewaterhouseCoopers
the Cybertruck pickup truck with introductory pricing of $39,900 for the standard version with 250 miles of LLP
Founded
range. Longer-term, TSLA also has plans to manufacture an electric Semi-truck and to reintroduce its 2003
Roadster, an electric sports car model that it last produced in 2012. TSLA broke ground on its new factory in
Germany in early 2020. On July 22, 2020, Tesla announced that its new U.S. factory would be built near Employees
Austin, Texas, with the plant expected to build the Cybertruck, Semi, Model 3, and Model Y vehicles for the 99,290
eastern half of North America. Tesla anticipates making first deliveries of the Cybertruck and Semi in 2023.
On March 22, 2022, Tesla held a ribbon-cutting ceremony at the Germany factory and the grand opening Stockholders
party for the Austin factory took place on April 7, 2022. 7,051
As of April 20, 2022, the company said its annual installed vehicle production capacity is approximately 1.05
million units, consisting of 600,000 units at its Fremont factory in California (500,000 Model 3 and Y plus
100,000 for the Model S and X) and 450,000 units of Model 3/Y capacity at its Shanghai, China factory.
On December 21, 2020, TSLA was the largest company ever added to the S&P 500 by a wide margin (the
second largest was Facebook, now Meta Platforms).
TSLA expects first deliveries of three new vehicle models in the coming quarters: the Cybertruck (2023), the
Semi (2023), and Roadster (2023). The Cybertruck reportedly had a reservation count of over 1.3 million as
of early 2022. TSLA’s long-term goal is to grow its annual vehicle sales volumes from roughly 500,000 units
in 2020 to 20 million units by 2030, which would represent an increase of 40x. In order to achieve this goal,
we think TSLA might have to grow through acquisition and we see opportunities arising as competition
intensifies across the auto industry. We estimate TSLA’s sales volumes will grow from 936K units in 2021 to
1.47M in 2022, 2.00M in 2023, and 2.30M in 2024, with output being restricted by global semiconductor
shortages and supply chain issues, which we see lasting at least through the end of 2022.
FINANCIAL TRENDS. Tesla’s revenues increased from $24.6 billion in 2019 to $31.5 billion in 2020 and $47.2
billion in 2021, driven primarily by increasing vehicle sales. TSLA’s adjusted EPS went from a loss of $0.02 in
2019 to a profit of $2.24 in 2020 and $6.78 in 2021. In 2021, TSLA posted a 203% increase in adjusted EPS
($6.78 vs. $2.24), as revenue rose 71% and gross margin (GAAP) expanded by 430 bps to 25.3%. In Q1
2022, TSLA posted a 246% increase in adjusted EPS ($3.22 vs. $0.93), as revenue rose 81% and gross
margin expanded 780 bps to 29.1%.
As of March 31, 2021, TSLA had $18.0 billion of cash and equivalents, up from $17.7 billion at the end of
2021. Total debt (excluding vehicle and energy product financing) stood at only $88 million, down from $1.4
billion at the end of 2021.

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Stock Report | April 29, 2022 | NasdaqGS Symbol: TSLA | TSLA is in the S&P 500
Tesla, Inc.
Quantitative Evaluations Expanded Ratio Analysis

Fair Value Rank 1 2 3 4 5 2021 2020 2019 2018

Lowest Highest Price/Sales 22.17 24.23 3.02 2.65
Based on CFRA's proprietary quantitative model, Price/EBITDA 127.84 178.85 34.17 34.73
stocks are ranked from most overvalued (1) to most Price/Pretax Income 188.10 662.25 NM NM
undervalued (5). P/E Ratio NM NM NM NM
Avg. Diluted Shares Outstg. (M) 1,129.00 1,083.00 887.00 853.00
Fair Value USD Analysis of the stock’s current worth, based on CFRA’s
Calculation 691.54 proprietary quantitative model suggests that TSLA is Figures based on fiscal year-end price
overvalued by USD 185.97 or 21.19%

Volatility LOW AVERAGE HIGH

Key Growth Rates and Averages
Technical NEUTRAL Since December, 2021, the technical indicators for
Past Growth Rate (%) 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years
Evaluation TSLA have been NEUTRAL"
Net Income 665.46 78.16 52.24
Insider Activity UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL FAVORABLE Sales 70.67 35.86 50.37

Ratio Analysis (Annual Avg.)

Net Margin (%) 10.25 3.01 NM
% LT Debt to Capitalization 10.58 26.49 34.98
Return on Equity (%) 20.43 5.03 -8.31

Company Financials Fiscal year ending Dec 31

Per Share Data (USD) 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
Tangible Book Value 28.78 22.61 6.72 5.30 4.52 5.42 1.63 1.45 1.08 0.19
Free Cash Flow 3.53 2.89 1.09 -0.26 -4.99 -2.17 -3.37 -1.65 0.00 -0.94
Earnings 4.90 0.64 -0.98 -1.14 -2.37 -0.94 -1.39 -0.47 -0.12 -0.74
Earnings (Normalized) 3.40 0.51 -0.46 -0.54 -1.28 -0.57 -0.85 -0.29 -0.07 -0.46
Dividends N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Payout Ratio (%) NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
Prices: High 1,243 718.72 87.06 77.49 77.92 53.87 57.33 58.28 38.90 7.99
Prices: Low 539.49 70.10 35.40 48.92 42.19 28.21 36.28 27.33 6.42 4.53
P/E Ratio: High NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
P/E Ratio: Low NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM

Income Statement Analysis (Million USD)

Revenue 53,823 31,536 24,578 21,461 11,759 7,000 4,046 3,198 2,013 413.00
Operating Income 6,523 1,951 80.00 -253.00 -1,632 -646.00 -717.00 -187.00 -61.00 -394.00
Depreciation + Amortization 2,810 2,322 2,092 1,888 1,636 947.00 423.00 232.00 106.00 29.00
Interest Expense 358.00 784.00 725.00 653.00 477.00 192.00 119.00 101.00 33.00 0.00
Pretax Income 6,343 1,154 -665.00 -1,005 -2,209 -746.00 -876.00 -285.00 -71.00 -396.00
Effective Tax Rate 11.00 25.30 -16.50 -5.80 -1.40 -3.60 -1.50 -3.30 -3.60 0.00
Net Income 5,519 721.00 NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
Net Income (Normalized) 3,839 553.40 NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM

Balance Sheet and Other Financial Data (Million USD)

Cash 17,707 19,384 6,268 3,686 3,368 3,393 1,197 1,906 846.00 202.00
Current Assets 27,100 26,717 12,103 8,307 6,571 6,260 2,782 3,180 1,266 525.00
Total Assets 62,131 52,148 34,309 29,740 28,655 22,664 8,068 5,831 2,417 1,114
Current Liabilities 19,705 14,248 10,667 9,993 7,675 5,836 2,858 2,165 675.00 539.00
Long Term Debt 4,285 8,571 10,375 8,461 9,486 6,054 2,021 1,819 586.00 401.00
Total Capital 40,487 37,016 22,686 20,141 17,763 14,493 3,983 3,452 1,274 591.00
Capital Expenditures 8,014 3,232 1,432 2,319 4,081 1,440 1,635 970.00 264.00 239.00
Cash from Operations 11,497 5,943 2,405 2,098 -61.00 -124.00 -524.00 -57.00 265.00 -264.00
Current Ratio 1.38 1.88 1.13 0.83 0.86 1.07 0.97 1.47 1.88 0.97
% Long Term Debt of Capitalization 10.60 23.20 45.70 42.00 53.40 41.80 50.70 52.70 46.00 67.90
% Net Income of Revenue 10.30 2.30 -3.50 -4.50 -16.70 -9.60 -22.00 -9.20 -3.70 -95.90
% Return on Assets 7.13 2.82 0.16 -0.54 -3.98 -2.63 -6.45 -2.83 -2.17 -26.97
% Return on Equity 20.40 5.40 -10.70 -17.80 -38.80 -22.10 -89.10 -37.20 -18.70 NM

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data may be preliminary or restated; before results of discontinued operations/special items. Per share data adjusted for stock dividends; EPS diluted.
E-Estimated. NA-Not Available. NM-Not Meaningful. NR-Not Ranked. UR-Under Review.

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Stock Report | April 29, 2022 | NasdaqGS Symbol: TSLA | TSLA is in the S&P 500
Tesla, Inc.
Sub-Industry Outlook Industry Performance

CFRA's 12-month fundamental outlook for the chain disruptions, rising labor and raw GICS Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Automobile Manufacturers sub-industry is neutral, materials costs, higher gasoline prices, and Sub-Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
reflecting expectations that auto prices will expected interest rate increases are major Based on S&P 1500 Indexes
remain near record-high levels and demand will concerns. Five-Year market price performance through Apr 23, 2022
continue to recover in most major markets, but We expect investments in electric and
growth will be tempered by a combination of autonomous vehicles to remain a drag on
semiconductor shortages, supply chain bottom line results for most companies
disruptions, cost inflation, and rising interest despite growing sales. In 2021, EVs accounted
rates. for 8.3% of all new vehicle sales worldwide and
We estimate global light vehicle sales will increase 3.1% in the U.S. One other major secular trend
by 3.8% to 82.4 million units in 2022 and 6.2% to has been the growing popularity of light duty
87.5 million in 2023, up from an estimated 79.4 vehicles - a category which includes pickup
million in 2021 (+5.2% Y/Y). Still, we expect global trucks, SUVs, and crossovers - and the waning
light vehicle sales to come in well below the pre- popularity of passenger cars such as sedans
pandemic level of 90.4 million units in 2019. In and compact vehicles. Light duty vehicles
2021, sales grew 3.6% in China, the world’s largest accounted for 76.4% of new vehicles sold in
auto market (33% of global volumes) and by 0.8% the U.S. in 2020, a percentage that was up
and 3.8% respectively, in the second and third from only 51.2% in 2010, according to National
largest markets of Europe (21% global market Automobile Dealers Association data. The
share) and the United States. (19%). Importantly, average vehicle on the road in the U.S. was
global light vehicle sales started 2022 on a 12.1 years old in 2021, according to IHS Markit,
sluggish note, declining by 1.4% Y/Y in the first an industry record, which should help support
two months of the year, driven by declines in North retail and parts demand.
America (-11.0%) and Europe (-6.0%), partially Year-to-date as of April 1, 2022, the S&P
offset by a surge in China (+7.5%). Automobile Manufacturers Index was down
We estimate U.S. light vehicle sales will rebound by 1.7% versus a 4.6% decline for the S&P 1500
2.0% to 15.3 million units in 2022 and another Index. In 2021, the S&P Automobile
5.9% to 16.2 million units in 2023, up from an Manufacturers Index was up 53.1% versus a
estimated 15.0 million in 2021 (+3.8% Y/Y) and 26.7% gain for the S&P 1500 Index, and was
14.45 million in 2020. Sales would be stronger if up 7.8% versus a 15.8% gain for the S&P 1500
not for the record-low inventory levels and parts Index in 2020. The sub-industry's five-year
shortages (particularly semiconductors), which CAGR is 8.7%, well short of the 13.4% growth NOTE: A sector chart appears when the sub-industry does not have
have plagued the market in recent months and we for the S&P 1500 Index. sufficient historical index data.
expect to persist well into 2022 and possibly / Garrett Nelson All Sector & Sub-Industry information is based on the Global Industry
beyond. In 2020, U.S. light vehicle sales posted Classification Standard (GICS).
their weakest total since coming in at 14.44 Past performance is not an indication of future performance and should
million units in 2012. not be relied upon as such.
On the positive side, economic growth, low Source: CFRA, S&P Global Market Intelligence
unemployment rates, and relatively low (but rising)
interest rates should help support sales volumes.
We think margins will benefit from a combination
of record-high new vehicle price realizations (over
$46,000 in the U.S. as of February 2022) and cost
cuts implemented during the course of the Covid-
19 pandemic. However, chip shortages, supply

Sub-Industry: Automobile Manufacturers Peer Group*: Automobile Manufacturers

Recent 30-Day 1-Year Fair Return
Stock Stock Stk. Mkt. Price Price P/E Value Yield on Equity LTD to
Peer Group Symbol Exchange Currency Price Cap. (M) Chg. (%) Chg. (%) Ratio Calc. (%) (%) Cap (%)

Tesla, Inc. TSLA NasdaqGS USD 877.51 909,109.0 -20.2 26.4 119.0 691.54 N/A 28.3 N/A
Ferrari N.V. RACE NYSE USD 214.04 39,208.0 -4.0 -1.6 45.0 N/A 0.7 41.7 N/A
Ford Motor Company F NYSE USD 14.62 60,481.0 -17.6 17.6 3.0 65.00 2.7 45.1 N/A
General Motors Company GM NYSE USD 38.75 56,498.0 -16.2 -33.8 6.0 118.91 N/A 16.0 N/A
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. HMC NYSE USD 26.45 44,719.0 -9.0 -13.0 8.0 N/A 5.8 9.0 N/A
Li Auto Inc. LI NasdaqGS USD 22.12 22,478.0 -16.8 9.7 NM N/A N/A -0.9 N/A
Lucid Group, Inc. LCID NasdaqGS USD 18.89 31,230.0 -31.0 -18.0 NM N/A N/A -101.4 N/A
NIO Inc. NIO NYSE USD 16.93 27,968.0 -22.6 -58.9 NM N/A N/A -30.3 N/A
Rivian Automotive, Inc. RIVN NasdaqGS USD 32.18 28,982.0 -40.3 N/A NM N/A N/A -40.1 N/A
Stellantis N.V. STLA NYSE USD 13.65 42,107.0 -20.1 -21.8 3.0 N/A 8.2 33.0 N/A
Toyota Motor Corporation TM NYSE USD 172.97 235,373.0 -6.4 12.9 10.0 N/A 2.3 13.1 N/A

*For Peer Groups with more than 10 companies or stocks, selection of issues is based on market capitalization.
NA-Not Available; NM-Not Meaningful.
Note: Peers are selected based on Global Industry Classification Standards and market capitalization. The peer group list includes companies with similar characteristics, but may not include all the companies within the same
industry and/or that engage in the same line of business.

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Stock Report | April 29, 2022 | NasdaqGS Symbol: TSLA | TSLA is in the S&P 500
Tesla, Inc.
Analyst Research Notes and other Company News

April 29, 2022 January 26, 2022

10:03 AM ET... CFRA Reiterates Strong Buy Recommendation on Tesla, Inc. Shares 04:51 PM ET... CFRA Reiterates Buy Opinion on Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA
(TSLA 914.65*****): 937.41****):
We maintain a 12-month price target of $1,350, based on a ’24 P/E of 88.5x, We lift our 12-month target by $50 to $1,300, based on a ’24 P/E of 90x, justified by
justified by TSLA’s long-term growth potential. Form 4 filings confirmed that CEO TSLA’s long-term earnings potential. We raise our EPS estimates by $1.35 to $10.40
Elon Musk sold 9.6M shares of TSLA for $8.4B this week to help fund his purchase of for ’22, by $1.20 to $12.45 for ’23, and by $1.35 to $14.45 for ‘24. TSLA posts Q4
Twitter. On Thursday night, Musk confirmed via tweet that no further stock sales are adjusted EPS of $2.54 vs. $0.80 (+218%), above the $2.38 consensus. The beat was
planned. If true, we think the lack of additional stock sales removes a near-term driven by a stronger-than-expected sales margins, as revenue rose 64.9% to
uncertainty on the story and should allow investors to focus on the company’s $17.72B ($1.08B above consensus) and gross margin expanded 810 bps to 27.4%
robust long-term fundamentals. We view this week’s weakness as presenting an (70 bps ahead of consensus). TSLA said it started Model Y production at the Austin
attractive entry point in one of the market’s most compelling growth stories, with factory and equipment testing at the Berlin in late 2021. Despite posting 87%
the ramp-up of the Austin and Berlin factories likely to drive near-term growth and growth in deliveries in 2021, TSLA said its factories have been running below
significant upside potential looking ahead to 2023 and beyond from the debut of the capacity for several quarters due to supply chain issues that it said are likely to
Cybertruck, Semi, and Roadster, in addition to high-margin software sales, Optimus, continue through 2022. While some may view this as a modest disappointment,
etc. Pressure from large stock sales by Musk have created opportunity for investors TSLA has become masterful at underpromising and overdelivering and has now beat
to buy shares at a discount in the past. / Garrett Nelson in 9 of the past 10 quarters. We reiterate a Buy opinion. / Garrett Nelson

April 25, 2022 January 03, 2022

10:55 AM ET... CFRA Raises Opinion on Shares of Tesla, Inc. to Strong Buy from Buy 12:13 AM ET... CFRA Raises Opinion on Shares of Tesla Inc. to Buy from Hold (TSLA
(TSLA 1005.00*****): 1056.78****):
We maintain our 12-month price target of $1,350, based on a ’24 P/E of 88.5x, We hike our 12-month target by $375 to $1,250, based on a ’24 P/E of 95.4x
justified by TSLA’s long-term earnings growth potential. Following a much better- justified by TSLA’s earnings growth potential and strong execution. We raise our
than-expected quarter and near-term weakness related to concerns that CEO Elon adjusted EPS estimates by $0.65 to $6.50 for ’21, by $1.45 to $9.05 for ’22, by $2.15
Musk could possibly have to sell some of his TSLA shares in order to fund the to $11.25 for ’23, and introduce ’24 at $13.10. TSLA posts Q4 vehicle sales of
acquisition of Twitter, we raise our recommendation to Strong Buy. In our view, these 308,600 units (+71% Y/Y), well ahead of the 265,700 consensus. After a year in
concerns are overblown as Musk is likely to only pledge a portion of his shares as which TSLA shares rose 50%, underperforming competitors such as Lucid (+280%)
collateral. With this issue as well as concerns over the Covid-19 lockdown in and Ford (+136%) but outperforming GM (+41%), we raise our opinion to Buy as the
Shanghai having eased, we think investor focus will return to the rock-solid completion of new factories in Texas and Germany sets the stage for further growth
fundamentals of the Tesla story, which boasts a plethora of catalysts with the debut in 2022 and beyond. We also believe Model S Plaid sales will help provide an uplift to
of three new, highly-anticipated vehicle models in 2023 (and possibly Optimus as average price realizations and that first deliveries of the Cybertruck and Semi could
well). With TSLA shares trading nearly 20% below the all-time high, we raise our come sooner than most expect. A near-term overhang in the form of tax-related
opinion to Strong Buy, advising investors to use weakness to add the stock to stock sales by Elon Musk has been lifted and a 13% pullback over the last two
portfolios as the long-term, secular growth story plays out. / Garrett Nelson months provides a compelling entry point, in our view. / Garrett Nelson

April 20, 2022 October 20, 2021

05:13 PM ET... CFRA Reiterates Buy Opinion on Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA 05:03 PM ET... CFRA Maintains Hold Opinion on Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA
977.20****): 865.80***):
We raise our 12-month target by $50 to $1,350, based on a ’24 P/E of 88.5x. We We raise our 12-month target by $125 to $875 based on a ’23 P/E of 96.2x, justified
raise our adjusted EPS estimates by $1.30 to $11.75 for ’22, by $1.55 to $14.00 for by TSLA’s long-term earnings potential. Our adjusted EPS estimates increase by
’23, and by $0.80 to $15.25 for ‘24. TSLA posts Q1 adjusted EPS of $3.22 vs. $0.93 $0.55 to $5.85 for ’21 and by $0.30 to $7.60 for ’22. We introduce ’23 at $9.10. TSLA
(+246%), well above the $2.27 consensus. The beat was driven by a stronger-than- posts Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.86 vs. $0.76 (+145%), ahead of the $1.61 consensus.
expected top line and gross margins, as revenue rose 80.5% to $18.76B ($920M The beat was primarily driven by a stronger-than-expected margins, as revenue rose
above consensus) and gross margin expanded 780 bps to 29.1%. Record auto 56.8% to $13.76B ($55M above consensus) and auto gross margin expanded 280
regulatory credit revenue ($679M in Q1) and stronger-than-expected pricing drove bps to 30.5%. TSLA said it still expects first production at both the Berlin and Austin
the beat, with the former being a very high-margin revenue stream. While the recent factories by year-end. The reaction in the shares post-release was muted (the stock
shutdown of the Shanghai plant will hurt Q2 results, we view the impact as priced traded down slightly), as we believe expectations for a beat relative to consensus
into the stock at current levels and expect the Texas and Germany factories to help was priced in and the company’s statement that the magnitude of its growth “will be
offset. We continue to consider TSLA as one of the market’s most compelling determined largely by outside factors” gives investors pause. We remain at a Hold,
secular growth stories, and it has become masterful at underpromising and which reflects a valuation we consider fair as well as concerns over rising EV
overdelivering, having now beat in 10 of the past 11 quarters. / Garrett Nelson competition and semiconductor supply. / Garrett Nelson

April 04, 2022

12:17 AM ET... CFRA Reiterates Buy Opinion on Shares of Tesla Inc. (TSLA
1084.59****):
We maintain our 12-month target of $1,300, based on a ’24 P/E of 90x justified by
TSLA’s long-term growth potential and strong execution. We raise our ’22 adjusted
EPS estimate by $0.05 to $10.45, and maintain ’23 at $12.45 and ’24 at $14.45.
TSLA posts Q1 vehicle sales of 310,048 units (+68% Y/Y), slightly shy of the 312,540
consensus, but ahead of our 300,000 estimate. TSLA’s growth stands in stark
contrast to other automakers who posted steep decline in U.S. sales in Q1 (Toyota’s
sales were -15% and GM’s -20%). Furthermore, we think the startup of TSLA’s new
factories in Germany and Texas sets the stage for shipment growth to accelerate in
Q2 and beyond, and we believe that supply agreements signed with mining
companies position the company to navigate battery raw materials shortages more
successfully than competitors. Additionally, we believe TSLA’s first-mover and cost
of capital advantages, as well as future demand from the rental car and commercial
truck markets, remain underappreciated by investors. / Garrett Nelson

Note: Research notes reflect CFRA's published opinions and analysis on the stock at the time the note was published. The note reflects the views of the equity analyst as of
the date and time indicated in the note, and may not reflect CFRA's current view on the company.
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Stock Report | April 29, 2022 | NasdaqGS Symbol: TSLA | TSLA is in the S&P 500
Tesla, Inc.
Analysts Recommendations Wall Street Consensus Opinion

Buy/Hold

Wall Street Consensus vs. Performance

For fiscal year 2022, analysts estimate that TSLA will earn
USD 12.26. For fiscal year 2023, analysts estimate that
TSLA's earnings per share will grow by 27.13% to USD
15.59.

No. of
Recommendations % of Total 1 Mo.Prior 3 Mos.Prior
Buy 11 28 11 11
Buy/Hold 8 21 6 4
Hold 10 26 9 12
Weak hold 5 13 6 5
Sell 3 8 3 3
No Opinion 2 5 3 3
Total 39 100 38 38

Wall Street Consensus Estimates

Fiscal Year Avg Est. High Est. Low Est. # of Est. Est. P/E
2023 15.59 25.06 7.30 32 56.30
2022 12.26 17.06 9.60 33 71.58
2023 vs. 2022 p 27% p 47% q -24% q -3% q -21%

Q2'23 3.86 5.09 1.74 7 227.59

Q2'22 2.27 3.00 1.65 23 386.88
Q2'23 vs. Q2'22 p 70% p 70% p 5% q -70% q -41%
Forecasts are not reliable indicator of future performance.
Note: A company's earnings outlook plays a major part in any investment decision. S&P Global Market Intelligence organizes the earnings estimates of over 2,300 Wall Street analysts, and
provides their consensus of earnings over the next two years, as well as how those earnings estimates have changed over time. Note that the information provided in relation to consensus
estimates is not intended to predict actual results and should not be taken as a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note: For all tables, graphs and charts in this report that do not cite any reference or source, the source is S&P Global Market Intelligence.

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Stock Report | April 29, 2022 | NasdaqGS Symbol: TSLA | TSLA is in the S&P 500
Tesla, Inc.
Glossary

STARS Abbreviations Used in Equity Research Reports

Since January 1, 1987, CFRA Equity and Fund Research Services, and its CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate
predecessor S&P Capital IQ Equity Research has ranked a universe of U.S. CAPEX - Capital Expenditures
common stocks, ADRs (American Depositary Receipts), and ADSs (American CY - Calendar Year
Depositary Shares) based on a given equity's potential for future performance. DCF - Discounted Cash Flow
Similarly, we have ranked Asian and European equities since June 30, 2002. DDM - Dividend Discount Model
Under proprietary STARS (Stock Appreciation Ranking System), equity analysts EBIT - Earnings Before Interest and Taxes
rank equities according to their individual forecast of an equity's future total EBITDA - Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization
return potential versus the expected total return of a relevant benchmark (e.g., EPS - Earnings Per Share
a regional index (MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index, MSCI AC Europe Index or S&P 500® EV - Enterprise Value
Index)), based on a 12-month time horizon. STARS was designed to help FCF - Free Cash Flow
investors looking to put their investment decisions in perspective. Data used to FFO - Funds From Operations
assist in determining the STARS ranking may be the result of the analyst's own FY - Fiscal Year
models as well as internal proprietary models resulting from dynamic data P/E - Price/Earnings
inputs. P/NAV - Price to Net Asset Value
PEG Ratio - P/E-to-Growth Ratio
S&P Global Market Intelligence's Quality Ranking PV - Present Value
(also known as S&P Capital IQ Earnings & Dividend Rankings) - Growth and R&D - Research & Development
S&P Capital IQ Earnings & Dividend Rankings stability of earnings and dividends ROCE - Return on Capital Employed
are deemed key elements in establishing S&P Global Market Intelligence's ROE Return on Equity
earnings and dividend rankings for common stocks, which are designed to ROI - Return on Investment
capsulize the nature of this record in a single symbol. It should be noted, ROIC - Return on Invested Capital
however, that the process also takes into consideration certain adjustments ROA - Return on Assets
and modifications deemed desirable in establishing such rankings. The final SG&A - Selling, General & Administrative Expenses
score for each stock is measured against a scoring matrix determined by SOTP - Sum-of-The-Parts
analysis of the scores of a large and representative sample of stocks. The range WACC - Weighted Average Cost of Capital
of scores in the array of this sample has been aligned with the following ladder
of rankings: Dividends on American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and American Depository
Shares (ADSs) are net of taxes (paid in the country of origin).
A+ Highest B Below Average
Qualitative Risk Assessment
A High B- Lower
A Above C Lowest
Reflects an equity analyst's view of a given company's operational risk, or the
risk of a firm's ability to continue as an ongoing concern. The Qualitative Risk
B+ Average D In Reorganization
Assessment is a relative ranking to the U.S. STARS universe, and should be
NC Not Ranked reflective of risk factors related to a company's operations, as opposed to risk
and volatility measures associated with share prices. For an ETF this reflects on
EPS Estimates a capitalization-weighted basis, the average qualitative risk assessment
CFRA's earnings per share (EPS) estimates reflect analyst projections of future assigned to holdings of the fund.
EPS from continuing operations, and generally exclude various items that are
viewed as special, non-recurring, or extraordinary. Also, EPS estimates reflect STARS Ranking system and definition:
either forecasts of equity analysts; or, the consensus (average) EPS estimate, ««««« 5-STARS (Strong Buy):
which are independently compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence, a data Total return is expected to outperform the total return of a relevant benchmark,
provider to CFRA. Among the items typically excluded from EPS estimates are by a notable margin over the coming 12 months, with shares rising in price on
asset sale gains; impairment, restructuring or merger-related charges; legal an absolute basis.
and insurance settlements; in process research and development expenses; ««««« 4-STARS (Buy):
gains or losses on the extinguishment of debt; the cumulative effect of Total return is expected to outperform the total return of a relevant benchmark
accounting changes; and earnings related to operations that have been over the coming 12 months.
classified by the company as discontinued. The inclusion of some items, such
as stock option expense and recurring types of other charges, may vary, and ««««« 3-STARS (Hold):
depend on such factors as industry practice, analyst judgment, and the extent Total return is expected to closely approximate the total return of a relevant
to which some types of data is disclosed by companies. benchmark over the coming 12 months.
««««« 2-STARS (Sell):
12-Month Target Price Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a relevant
The equity analyst's projection of the market price a given security will benchmark over the coming 12 months.
command 12 months hence, based on a combination of intrinsic, relative, and
««««« 1-STAR (Strong Sell):
private market valuation metrics, including Fair Value.
Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a relevant
benchmark by a notable margin over the coming 12 months, with shares falling
in price on an absolute basis.
Relevant benchmarks:
In North America, the relevant benchmark is the S&P 500 Index, in Europe and
in Asia, the relevant benchmarks are the MSCI AC Europe Index and the MSCI AC
Asia Pacific Index, respectively.

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Stock Report | April 29, 2022 | NasdaqGS Symbol: TSLA | TSLA is in the S&P 500
Tesla, Inc.
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