CLIMATE

OUTLOOK
SEPTEMBER 2025 – FEBRUARY 2026
Presented by:

ANA LIZA S. SOLIS

Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD)
ENSO Update

Climate Outlook
(September 2025 – February 2026)

Summary
ENSO Update
as of 27 August 2025 Conditions in the Tropical Pacific
Oceanic Indicator Atmospheric Indicator

⮚ above-average OLR (suppressed convection and precipitation) was

⮚ In the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average in observed in the western and central equatorial Pacific Ocean.
the western and far eastern Pacific Ocean, and were near-to-
below average across the rest of the Pacific.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
ENSO Update
as of 27 August 2025 Conditions in the Tropical Pacific

Most recent pentad analysis

• Over the last couple of months, below-average

temperatures strengthened in the east-central
and eastern Pacific.
• Above-average subsurface temperatures
persisted in the western and central Pacific.
What are the chances?

ENSO Strength Outlook

Target ≤ -2.0°C ≤ -1.5°C ≤ -1.0°C ≤ -0.5°C ≥ 0.5°C ≥ 1.0°C ≥ 1.5°C ≥ 2.0°C
JAS ~0 ~0 1 22 1 ~0 ~0 ~0
ASO ~0 ~0 8 42 2 ~0 ~0 ~0
SON ~0 2 15 53 2 ~0 ~0 ~0
OND ~0 4 22 58 3 ~0 ~0 ~0
NDJ ~0 4 20 53 5 ~0 ~0 ~0
DJF ~0 3 16 45 8 1 ~0 ~0
JFM ~0 1 9 34 11 2 ~0 ~0
FMA ~0 ~0 4 24 13 2 ~0 ~0
MAM ~0 ~0 2 16 16 2 ~0 ~0
This table shows the forecast probability (%) of Niño-3.4 index exceeding a certain threshold (in degrees Celsius).

⮚ ENSO-neutral conditions are favored to ⮚ A 1-in-3 chance of La Niña conditions during Sep-Oct-
persist until the Aug-Sep-Oct 2025 season. Nov 2025 to Nov-Dec-Jan 2026 season.
⮚ Increasing probability of short-lived La Niña
conditions as early as the Sept-Oct-Nov
2025 until the Oct-Nov-Dec 2025.

SOURCE: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/
Issued: August 26, 2025
POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF LOOMING LA NINA CONDITIONS:

• TCs may develop near /inside PAR;

• Historically during weak La Nina, more TC occurrences during the
last quarter of the year;
• Higher probability of above normal rainfall; there are areas
forecasted having above normal rainfall in highly vulnerable to
floods and landslides;
• May not develop into a full blown La Niña; but significant impacts
may be experienced and may vary in different areas.
ENSO Alert System Status:

⮚ Cool ENSO-neutral is present in the tropical Pacific;

⮚ Most models predict short-lived La Niña conditions as early as the September-
October-November season until the October-November-December season.
Updated: 27 August 2025
 DOST

PAGASA
The Weather and Climate Authority

Climate
Outlook
(Rainfall, Temperature, Tropical Cyclone)
Weather systems that may affect the country (SEPTEMBER 2025 – FEBRUARY 2026)

L
EASTERLIES INTERTROPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONES LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHWEST
LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE ZONE (TCs) (LPA) MONSOON
THUNDERSTORMS (ITCZ)

Transition
(Oct - Nov)

RIDGE OF HIGH FRONTAL NORTHEAST

SHEAR LINE
PRESSURE AREA SYSTEM MONSOON
(HPA)
 MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST SEPTEMBER 2025
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

Issued: 27
24 AUGUST
21 Feb 2025
April 2025
2025 way below normal below normal near normal above normal
0 0 68 16
 MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST OCTOBER 2025
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

Issued: 27
21 AUGUST
Jan 2025
April 2025
2025
0 4 36 44
 MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST NOVEMBER 2025
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

Issued: 27
24 AUGUST
21 Jan 2025
Feb
April
2025
2025
2025
0 3 77 4
 MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST DECEMBER 2025
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

Issued: 27
21 AUGUST
24 Jan 2025
Feb 20252025
0 1 40 43
 MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST JANUARY 2026
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

Issued: 27
24 AUGUST
21 Jan 2025
Feb
April
2025
2025
2025
0 14 57 13
 MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST FEBRUARY 2026
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

Issued: 27
24 AUGUST
21 Jan 2025
Feb
April
2025
2025
2025
9 27 44 4
 FORECAST RAINFALL in % Normal (September 2025 - February 2026) as of August 2025

PROVINCE SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB PROVINCE SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB PROVINCE SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
ABRA 122.4 83.5 83.4 88.6 55.8 24.6 MARINDUQUE 112.2 135.7 115.2 126.7 114.2 90.4 ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 103.7 119.5 103.4 126.0 123.4 79.0
BENGUET 111.9 69.7 102.0 81.6 78.3 34.0 OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 126.2 131.1 112.2 124.3 105.9 53.6 ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 104.0 116.1 105.2 121.6 127.5 89.7
IFUGAO 122.7 95.7 103.3 113.7 84.5 60.8 ORIENTAL MINDORO 123.9 135.2 114.2 127.4 110.6 65.6 ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 105.2 116.6 104.1 122.4 130.2 90.7
KALINGA 127.8 94.5 99.7 114.0 80.6 50.8 ROMBLON 99.7 134.6 113.8 123.9 123.6 84.1 REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
APAYAO 124.4 88.9 96.1 100.2 81.3 41.7 PALAWAN 129.2 122.6 103.7 150.5 74.7 54.7 BUKIDNON 105.5 114.6 99.3 122.5 100.3 120.2
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 123.5 92.8 101.1 108.8 78.0 51.0 SPRATLY ISLANDS 130.2 125.2 101.4 135.9 64.3 48.5 CAMIGUIN 103.6 122.2 97.7 118.9 111.3 119.4
REGION I REGION V (BICOL) LANAO DEL NORTE 101.6 116.5 99.9 120.4 108.1 104.2
ILOCOS NORTE 114.7 70.4 68.3 81.2 54.2 17.7 ALBAY 102.4 125.5 99.1 116.4 120.0 77.2 MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 100.0 119.4 101.9 125.0 111.7 82.5
ILOCOS SUR 118.1 78.8 83.1 82.0 53.6 21.4 CAMARINES NORTE 118.6 137.9 119.9 132.0 109.0 101.6 MISAMIS ORIENTAL 104.5 117.9 97.3 119.6 100.7 125.1
LA UNION 110.2 71.3 114.4 78.2 68.0 27.7 CAMARINES SUR 97.3 141.8 101.6 117.1 109.2 79.3 REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
PANGASINAN 115.1 82.1 104.6 84.8 54.8 32.0 CATANDUANES 114.1 119.8 105.4 122.1 116.0 95.0 DAVAO DE ORO 104.3 113.1 108.7 117.0 107.6 118.2
REGION II MASBATE 109.8 141.5 96.9 131.2 116.5 86.9 DAVAO CITY 114.1 113.3 85.9 119.2 97.8 98.8
BATANES 112.0 100.7 107.7 104.9 103.4 83.4 SORSOGON 112.4 141.0 103.7 126.1 119.5 90.6 DAVAO DEL NORTE 109.5 107.1 88.7 117.9 100.2 111.1
CAGAYAN 129.5 95.3 102.5 116.2 103.9 63.2 REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS) DAVAO DEL SUR 109.7 123.8 101.6 116.7 101.6 104.7
ISABELA 129.5 104.8 107.0 137.2 97.8 79.7 AKLAN 106.1 127.4 99.6 125.7 106.8 70.2 DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 103.8 122.0 103.6 114.3 103.6 116.9
NUEVA VIZCAYA 119.3 95.3 100.1 104.0 87.1 55.8 ANTIQUE 106.1 126.3 102.5 132.5 90.7 64.0 DAVAO ORIENTAL 103.7 121.0 106.6 116.3 109.2 116.0
QUIRINO 123.1 115.8 112.4 127.9 97.0 80.6 CAPIZ 105.8 124.1 101.5 125.4 108.8 77.7 REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON) GUIMARAS 104.1 121.9 105.2 134.1 93.5 81.6 SOUTH COTABATO 102.0 120.5 105.1 112.8 108.7 117.8
BATAAN 117.6 127.4 80.9 96.4 81.7 34.4 ILOILO 103.8 123.5 100.1 130.4 99.1 77.4 COTABATO 106.7 118.3 98.6 115.2 108.3 105.3
BULACAN 120.5 115.1 90.9 126.2 86.9 64.9 NEGROS ISLAND REGION (NIR) SARANGANI 101.5 122.2 105.5 112.9 106.0 120.9
NUEVA ECIJA 120.7 96.3 98.7 96.7 68.8 39.7 NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 111.1 123.7 105.6 131.2 102.9 90.2 SULTAN KUDARAT 102.5 117.0 102.6 112.4 116.8 109.9
PAMPANGA 118.8 115.3 72.1 96.8 67.6 49.4 NEGROS ORIENTAL 108.3 118.2 103.1 133.2 111.2 87.9 REGION XIII- CARAGA
TARLAC 119.7 97.8 93.6 87.1 48.3 39.2 SIQUIJOR 101.7 115.9 101.1 132.2 120.4 91.6 AGUSAN DEL NORTE 105.8 122.1 97.1 108.0 115.6 120.5
ZAMBALES 121.3 108.4 99.4 90.6 43.3 44.6 REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS) AGUSAN DEL SUR 106.0 122.2 99.1 110.5 110.3 119.4
AURORA 121.2 123.7 97.5 127.0 98.6 83.1 BOHOL 98.1 124.6 101.3 124.9 125.2 114.7 DINAGAT ISLANDS 108.3 129.5 96.2 109.9 118.8 112.7
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION CEBU 102.1 120.0 106.1 126.4 117.5 103.9 SURIGAO DEL NORTE 109.0 129.4 95.1 106.4 119.0 115.5
METRO MANILA 119.8 128.7 135.4 130.7 109.6 52.8 REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS) SURIGAO DEL SUR 107.0 124.7 98.5 104.2 116.3 116.9
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) BILIRAN 105.4 128.9 102.3 121.8 116.4 90.4 BARMM
BATANGAS 118.6 133.8 112.3 130.9 120.4 60.5 EASTERN SAMAR 101.7 122.3 103.8 120.6 113.2 87.9 BASILAN 111.4 115.7 109.9 120.9 142.6 106.3
CAVITE 117.6 135.5 157.8 126.2 121.4 41.1 LEYTE 104.8 129.0 88.0 119.9 119.0 100.3 MAGUINDANAO 101.2 115.9 99.5 110.5 121.0 106.2
LAGUNA 118.2 136.7 145.5 132.5 117.3 80.7 NORTHERN SAMAR 105.0 143.7 99.4 124.5 112.0 99.9 LANAO DEL SUR 102.1 116.6 99.4 117.7 108.5 110.2
RIZAL 118.9 124.6 185.0 135.0 108.7 71.5 SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 103.9 127.0 102.3 120.4 114.2 87.4 SULU 115.7 115.9 100.9 129.6 123.1 96.1
QUEZON 116.2 133.0 115.6 130.4 110.2 96.3 SOUTHERN LEYTE 108.2 135.6 94.5 117.4 121.0 113.6 TAWI-TAWI 117.9 118.1 99.5 136.1 106.1 84.2

Issued: 27 AUG 2025 Next update: 24 SEP 2025

 PROVINCE SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY
Forecast CO RDILLERA ADMINIS TRATIV E REG IO N

ABRA
MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN
384.6 462.7 426.6 112.5 279.4 199.0 30.5 251.1 160.9 45.9 150.9 96.4 2.4 25.6 10.6 0.8 12.0 6.3

Rainfall in
BENGUET 472.8 580.3 522.9 218.3 292.1 257.2 51.6 207.4 134.7 50.1 145.5 94.0 10.2 36.1 19.6 5.5 21.8 11.7
IFUGAO 335.3 491.3 407.5 258.2 287.5 265.1 173.5 234.5 217.8 138.8 308.0 216.0 21.2 53.5 36.5 15.2 35.9 24.8
KALINGA 319.0 429.7 369.9 240.4 282.4 274.0 218.9 269.1 247.3 132.5 251.1 188.5 13.8 41.9 25.7 9.5 24.6 15.8

mm
APAYAO 334.1 402.8 367.7 180.1 283.9 254.3 151.6 332.3 252.4 102.0 212.6 160.9 20.8 87.7 49.6 9.6 39.4 21.9
MOUNTAIN PROVINC E 338.8 475.7 407.9 251.9 271.3 266.4 205.1 246.0 228.8 116.9 275.3 182.0 11.6 44.9 24.3 9.9 29.5 17.1
REGION I

(September ILOC OS NORTE

ILOC OS SUR
LA UNION
378.2
442.7
504.3
447.0
534.6
558.2
416.6
473.3
536.7
57.9
89.2
202.9
243.9
263.2
243.3
137.7
189.1
230.6
19.0
17.9
49.8
240.0
220.2
151.7
90.2
122.0
119.5
32.1
29.1
42.0
157.5
125.3
71.0
79.0
72.7
54.7
2.7
2.1
5.8
75.9
15.6
14.3
26.1
8.2
9.0
0.1
0.2
4.7
38.6
11.7
8.7
11.3
6.4
6.4

2025 – PANGASINAN
REGION II
BATANES
432.0

365.7
625.3

380.4
511.9

372.4
165.6

286.2
260.9

318.0
212.3

307.8
46.9

244.7
144.1

315.5
92.1

284.6
0.3

172.6
124.4

213.8
51.4

194.3
0.0

138.8
40.2

172.5
6.7

157.6
0.0

58.6
21.4

88.5
6.3

75.5

February C AGAYAN
ISABELA
NUEVA VIZC AYA
304.3
304.6
383.4
384.0
321.4
319.5
222.6
257.7
294.9
516.3
279.8
307.4
212.3
216.9
348.6
652.4
289.7
297.2
142.1
242.5
309.6
654.8
240.3
389.6
33.3
39.3
183.4
227.8
87.7
107.5
16.7
22.1
106.5
159.3
40.9
69.6

2026)
373.3 509.6 433.7 239.6 418.2 309.8 89.9 298.2 226.1 90.8 378.5 234.9 25.8 177.8 73.0 14.0 118.0 47.1
QUIRINO 329.3 410.7 366.1 277.6 538.4 391.8 239.4 712.6 370.6 301.4 658.6 431.6 64.9 219.2 149.7 43.4 161.3 103.5
REGION III
BATAAN 533.3 734.2 636.8 0.1 329.5 284.9 0.0 158.9 50.3 45.9 134.5 76.6 4.2 16.0 8.4 1.4 5.8 2.5
BULAC AN 368.7 564.0 474.2 11.2 485.0 323.8 0.0 573.5 189.9 101.7 472.3 255.0 0.4 154.6 47.7 0.0 139.8 31.8
NUEVA EC IJA 373.2 462.5 410.1 25.6 454.4 259.3 56.0 433.3 158.1 49.3 401.5 170.1 1.9 161.7 56.0 0.0 125.6 35.9
PAMPANGA 403.0 596.4 481.7 4.5 277.8 246.2 0.0 194.9 36.3 41.6 188.5 93.5 0.0 27.9 9.9 0.0 16.6 5.0
TARLAC 409.4 639.2 480.6 166.1 261.7 213.3 60.3 98.5 81.6 32.6 99.4 45.9 0.0 13.7 3.5 0.0 6.9 2.9
ZAMBALES 544.6 752.5 655.1 212.2 284.6 259.5 24.8 121.5 77.4 29.1 59.2 38.0 0.0 6.4 2.5 1.4 8.2 4.4
AURORA 329.1 398.6 359.6 354.2 652.4 497.8 211.8 837.6 485.3 293.1 795.8 530.4 133.6 285.5 211.1 87.8 211.7 150.1
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA 412.4 534.5 495.6 273.4 350.8 314.6 0.0 347.1 184.7 149.6 269.1 199.9 14.5 62.2 37.0 1.4 29.7 15.0
REGION IV-A
BATANGAS 294.9 499.4 339.1 249.0 516.9 354.4 153.5 476.1 268.7 156.4 513.3 306.5 25.3 141.0 68.6 7.3 85.9 31.3
C AVITE 335.3 505.6 426.4 254.5 314.6 280.3 127.3 237.1 174.1 140.7 237.8 183.0 19.3 48.8 28.9 5.1 19.8 7.9
LAGUNA 301.1 466.6 346.1 260.1 614.7 423.5 154.3 706.5 416.8 206.4 659.9 424.0 38.0 249.3 124.3 10.3 168.5 74.0
RIZAL 341.8 505.0 422.3 322.7 533.2 397.5 172.2 738.6 518.2 237.6 580.8 394.6 49.1 228.5 123.5 19.0 150.4 73.9
QUEZON 245.3 394.6 319.6 335.1 680.9 544.6 270.2 765.0 548.3 381.1 836.0 660.0 89.2 507.0 242.1 45.0 331.7 167.4
REGION IV-B
MARINDUQUE 287.3 299.3 292.3 451.3 526.4 471.8 376.0 464.8 394.7 455.0 596.7 522.6 154.8 204.5 179.2 92.2 135.4 113.7
OC C IDENTAL MINDORO 355.0 553.6 442.2 299.1 437.5 373.3 102.1 337.2 237.4 142.9 321.0 232.4 21.5 96.2 55.3 4.9 48.2 25.5
ORIENTAL MINDORO 290.9 481.4 370.0 327.7 471.1 405.0 137.4 391.2 286.4 184.3 412.4 300.5 44.9 129.9 91.0 18.9 72.9 44.7
ROMBLON 232.5 326.9 268.2 361.7 450.5 408.9 219.8 371.9 306.0 273.0 417.3 350.4 116.3 165.2 145.2 56.3 93.3 76.6
PALAWAN 206.0 570.2 313.6 225.4 386.7 310.1 96.1 259.7 194.8 151.8 343.8 256.4 10.3 77.2 42.4 1.8 38.1 23.0
SPRATLY ISLANDS 403.5 420.5 409.7 296.5 306.7 298.2 142.2 153.7 144.1 175.1 185.1 177.1 30.5 32.7 31.3 13.1 14.3 13.3
REGION V

Issued: 27 AUG 2025 ALBAY

C AMARINES NORTE
287.0 325.6 306.0 268.9 470.1 361.9 136.4 565.1 310.2 424.0 655.8 517.8 160.1 402.9 257.1 61.9 218.4 123.8
318.2 334.1 326.5 522.7 694.1 601.0 484.8 646.9 574.1 631.7 844.5 796.5 230.4 329.9 302.8 145.7 233.5 215.6
C AMARINES SUR 311.0 341.2 329.5 327.4 630.4 478.3 136.2 606.1 352.6 379.7 779.1 547.3 134.1 298.7 211.1 40.6 205.7 113.1
C ATANDUANES 295.6 318.0 305.9 422.1 476.4 434.8 412.3 447.4 426.9 602.8 648.8 634.7 304.9 358.0 329.3 154.5 183.4 168.4
MASBATE 236.3 295.3 251.9 322.6 459.7 366.2 184.2 384.3 258.5 357.4 533.8 465.8 146.0 322.2 236.6 69.2 169.1 111.3
SORSOGON 251.7 301.1 278.8 351.0 467.6 437.1 292.9 565.0 445.8 491.2 661.8 610.5 234.0 419.0 369.8 109.4 233.6 200.0
 PROVINCE SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY

Forecast REGION VI
AKLAN
MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN
273.0 341.3 302.5 340.5 401.2 372.7 215.8 379.3 292.8 259.4 357.4 311.8 106.1 193.6 150.7 49.5 83.5 67.4

Rainfall in
ANTIQUE 299.0 447.8 328.8 286.1 396.9 322.4 163.9 288.1 208.6 192.7 307.5 245.5 53.0 140.7 95.9 23.4 64.6 45.4
C APIZ 227.9 321.1 289.8 322.0 408.2 375.5 201.4 394.3 318.8 267.4 374.3 331.2 120.6 215.1 163.0 54.0 91.9 72.8
GUIMARAS 325.3 402.8 357.1 271.5 347.1 303.0 139.8 185.7 156.3 206.7 222.9 211.1 50.6 69.9 55.4 31.1 45.9 38.2
ILOILO

mm
250.4 348.5 313.5 260.4 377.6 313.9 138.6 362.8 219.1 202.0 381.5 268.2 51.7 179.7 110.7 28.7 90.9 54.6
NIR
NEGROS OC C IDENTAL 259.5 492.2 363.7 299.3 428.9 347.3 189.7 235.0 214.8 209.9 306.2 235.6 62.1 170.4 95.0 48.7 100.4 66.2
NEGROS ORIENTAL 137.2 436.3 250.4 174.5 403.3 282.9 161.3 234.6 196.4 211.6 250.6 225.4 84.9 150.7 113.3 61.6 76.0 67.4

(September SIQUIJOR
REGION VII
BOHOL
135.6

130.6
140.4

236.9
137.4

173.4
211.0

221.1
252.8

328.2
232.7

264.0
173.5

159.4
201.1

236.6
186.4

195.8
228.7

225.2
246.8

352.3
238.5

272.9
149.5

152.1
162.9

323.0
156.6

227.6
75.2

94.3
91.5

209.3
84.0

146.3

2025 – C EBU
REGION VIII
BILIRAN
153.0

250.5
301.6

260.2
242.9

256.1
195.0

339.6
376.5

368.1
279.7

353.9
162.0

291.3
300.8

315.5
203.4

297.4
215.5

482.2
460.5

524.1
272.5

500.1
115.6

305.1
344.1

351.0
169.6

336.6
70.7

168.8
220.8

187.3
106.2

180.8

February EASTERN SAMAR

LEYTE
NORTHERN SAMAR
176.3
186.8
217.0
253.7
319.0
252.5
218.0
261.1
235.2
311.6
276.3
363.6
400.5
384.1
516.4
363.7
338.7
446.1
326.9
220.3
294.2
467.5
315.0
457.0
392.9
266.8
396.9
544.1
373.0
573.0
677.5
545.6
771.4
621.8
472.8
687.7
468.1
285.5
351.0
574.8
473.5
544.0
514.2
382.8
499.1
237.8
168.5
184.4
356.5
306.3
338.6
280.5
236.7
282.8

2026)
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 190.6 289.3 244.7 280.6 464.7 373.4 288.0 426.4 345.0 513.2 687.5 596.0 343.4 517.2 446.3 165.3 284.9 235.4
SOUTHERN LEYTE 215.4 282.5 252.4 313.4 368.8 339.0 220.4 362.7 250.1 369.1 492.0 440.6 351.5 616.7 465.9 220.1 429.7 303.2
REGION IX
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 157.3 205.3 189.8 241.7 374.5 296.2 140.2 351.8 221.0 132.9 309.9 224.9 105.2 182.2 141.7 61.9 81.1 72.6
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 182.7 209.3 194.8 225.5 318.4 259.2 124.5 256.3 176.6 114.7 261.7 195.6 101.7 157.9 131.4 58.2 86.6 76.5
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 189.7 199.0 193.8 241.4 272.5 264.1 165.1 184.9 172.2 156.9 216.3 186.1 114.7 139.9 128.9 65.7 81.3 72.1
REGION X
BUKIDNON 215.9 290.8 262.5 219.7 317.3 281.9 105.7 234.4 191.3 184.5 269.3 220.7 107.2 296.4 173.7 99.3 224.9 142.7
C AMIGUIN 170.9 189.2 186.1 284.4 298.7 288.3 234.5 248.6 238.5 280.7 301.9 289.3 252.4 292.8 272.2 186.8 213.8 200.3
LANAO DEL NORTE 208.0 247.4 222.8 221.5 267.2 245.6 114.3 214.0 168.8 182.7 226.5 204.2 106.1 136.7 123.5 85.0 101.1 91.6
MISAMIS OC C IDENTAL 168.6 209.0 190.8 256.7 340.9 298.8 183.2 312.8 234.8 220.2 282.1 250.2 135.7 169.1 151.2 79.3 91.5 84.2
MISAMIS ORIENTAL 174.6 243.2 213.0 209.3 283.2 251.3 104.8 231.4 177.9 187.0 311.8 241.4 107.1 384.1 212.5 96.2 271.1 162.9
REGION XI
DAVAO DE ORO 171.7 232.6 194.6 191.6 289.4 245.2 142.8 295.7 206.2 207.4 361.2 275.8 202.4 613.7 378.9 142.9 457.9 276.0
DAVAO C ITY 217.3 260.3 243.1 209.3 305.1 273.3 149.8 230.3 194.4 185.5 218.2 197.9 132.3 210.9 160.1 100.3 177.5 126.9
DAVAO DEL NORTE 191.4 262.8 231.7 194.1 297.7 245.9 142.7 236.7 211.9 195.2 298.3 233.2 162.0 431.1 254.9 115.3 326.2 203.2
DAVAO DEL SUR 143.2 228.5 188.2 201.0 305.1 270.1 147.5 206.6 185.1 153.2 192.9 173.9 114.3 151.7 129.0 85.4 101.3 94.8
DAVAO OC C IDENTAL 106.9 175.8 128.4 181.3 271.0 229.8 125.4 222.1 182.5 149.1 206.4 175.2 114.0 186.2 153.4 83.8 151.3 111.8
DAVAO ORIENTAL 144.7 203.3 174.8 234.4 294.2 270.4 155.7 315.4 223.5 220.7 379.2 281.0 228.5 677.1 398.5 154.8 494.8 272.5
REGION XII
SOUTH C OTABATO 94.6 185.5 138.8 118.0 252.8 205.4 83.1 199.3 154.4 118.0 162.5 144.2 104.1 117.9 107.4 69.5 105.9 88.2
C OTABATO 190.0 262.6 237.5 250.9 312.1 275.2 184.0 227.4 203.7 153.9 210.8 178.1 111.0 172.7 122.2 91.2 148.2 105.3
SARANGANI 98.3 153.9 115.8 131.6 252.8 199.1 85.6 207.9 148.2 129.0 189.8 155.5 106.9 163.3 127.6 75.0 133.7 98.5
SULTAN KUDARAT 150.4 209.1 179.0 218.2 274.2 253.1 164.9 208.4 196.1 148.9 170.6 159.5 106.3 119.6 110.1 85.9 109.6 99.7
REGION XIII
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 144.3 204.2 166.4 205.2 293.5 243.4 194.4 318.2 221.1 273.9 427.2 333.7 308.6 645.8 466.0 226.8 437.7 322.4
AGUSAN DEL SUR 154.1 259.5 205.5 225.7 336.1 279.4 201.1 464.2 255.9 252.8 466.6 333.3 267.3 846.9 504.4 208.5 653.3 372.7
DINAGAT ISLANDS 195.2 220.5 208.0 306.3 331.9 316.7 293.9 391.8 334.7 500.4 529.1 508.5 549.2 730.9 651.7 359.6 504.4 436.9
Issued: 27 AUG 2025 SURIGAO DEL NORTE 167.3 208.4 184.7 271.1 343.4 312.7 258.6 413.7 338.3 405.6 521.6 471.1 591.5 751.9 689.4 411.1 540.8 467.6
SURIGAO DEL SUR 161.9 203.2 180.3 254.1 343.4 293.2 230.8 470.2 307.1 361.4 484.6 414.8 601.0 888.6 708.8 403.7 691.7 498.1
BARMM
BASILAN 184.3 197.4 187.3 236.1 263.4 248.5 131.8 175.3 151.9 123.5 168.0 133.7 94.6 105.7 102.4 59.8 71.1 66.1
MAGUINDANAO 181.8 249.6 217.9 242.5 325.1 283.0 171.9 200.2 190.4 149.8 183.6 159.6 108.3 119.2 112.4 90.9 104.8 98.5
LANAO DEL SUR 219.6 264.3 243.0 238.5 296.0 258.0 152.4 206.2 185.9 160.6 212.4 189.8 106.1 128.8 115.5 88.9 113.1 99.0
SULU 180.0 216.7 192.9 244.6 270.0 254.8 166.4 178.3 173.4 145.5 196.6 184.2 77.7 104.0 94.1 52.9 75.6 66.2
TAWI-TAWI 182.4 268.5 208.6 244.6 305.5 261.0 166.4 190.4 166.9 189.5 240.3 194.4 69.0 97.8 86.1 38.9 73.2 59.0
 FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected Dams and Lakes
in (mm) and (%N) FOR SEPTEMBER 2025 – FEBRUARY 2026

Malinao Pantabangan San Roque

NAME Angat WS La Mesa WS Lake Buhi Lake Lanao Magat WS
WS WS Cascade WS
MIN 368.2 498.4 297.8 222.9 358.4 163.6 390.8 488.2
MAX 500.0 517.4 341.2 272.1 503.1 189.2 449.1 573.0
SEPTEMBER MEAN
413.6 508.7 323.3 245.1 436.0 176.9 416.1 521.0
%NORMAL 117.3 120.0 90.6 103.3 119.9 98.6 120.2 112.3
MIN 291.7 325.2 268.9 209.3 259.2 259.2 239.1 225.7
MAX 485.8 339.8 542.9 281.5 331.6 286.5 364.4 293.2
OCTOBER MEAN 401.4 332.1 386.0 248.8 283.9 275.9 300.9 262.8
%NORMAL 112.4 119.5 135.3 115.8 92.7 124.9 97.0 68.2
MIN 212.1 110.4 136.2 104.8 152.5 194.2 150.6 60.2
MAX 547.2 199.4 410.6 212.8 263.9 228.1 252.1 189.2
NOVEMBER MEAN
412.1 158.7 220.5 165.3 216.6 213.7 202.3 119.9
%NORMAL 105.6 120.8 93.5 98.1 100.1 101.5 109.2 91.0
MIN 292.5 224.1 379.7 183.0 132.4 270.5 140.9 60.5
MAX 460.4 272.0 569.0 216.6 322.6 297.5 303.7 149.8
DECEMBER MEAN
390.1 245.0 451.0 197.6 207.7 284.6 216.0 102.4
%NORMAL 135.0 133.8 111.6 120.6 105.5 123.8 98.3 81.3
MIN 41.2 37.6 134.1 106.1 21.9 225.1 54.1 15.7
MAX 153.3 52.4 292.5 142.6 95.3 265.1 141.4 36.1
JANUARY MEAN 102.9 45.3 176.8 115.5 47.6 246.5 90.1 24.5
%NORMAL 89.0 102.3 111.8 100.6 84.8 124.4 82.5 81.0
MIN 12.3 12.1 40.6 91.1 16.3 144.6 31.2 7.7
MAX 140.8 21.0 147.7 120.0 63.6 171.4 92.5 21.8
FEBRUARY MEAN
84.5 16.9 74.2 101.8 31.1 159.3 56.6 14.1
%NORMAL 89.1 53.2 70.1 118.0 55.1 115.6 47.5 35.4

Issued: 27 AUG 2025 Next update: 24 SEP 2025

 FORECAST RAINFALL OF RAIN STATIONS OVER SELECTED DAM AREAS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR SEPTEMBER 2025 – FEBRUARY 2026

SITES SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY

MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL
AMBUKLAO DAM 534.2 111.2 272.0 66.2 123.0 94.1 102.4 79.5 23.5 82.2 13.4 34.6
ANGAT DAM 500.3 125.6 289.5 113.0 219.3 111.2 294.6 139.9 42.2 93.4 12.5 58.0
APUNAN 510.5 113.5 268.5 75.5 157.4 104.4 123.5 87.3 26.7 81.7 16.6 39.5
BADAYAN 488.7 115.4 265.3 80.8 194.6 112.7 128.4 91.2 22.0 77.9 14.9 40.1
BINGA DAM 539.1 111.2 265.2 62.8 105.7 85.2 93.8 76.9 22.4 81.9 12.3 33.4
BOBOK 515.1 112.7 280.4 71.6 138.8 91.1 121.6 83.4 28.8 82.7 17.1 37.7
BUNGA 438.9 118.8 285.6 89.5 205.0 110.2 183.1 94.0 62.8 79.9 37.3 41.2
BUYOC 415.3 121.8 263.0 95.7 213.7 101.0 219.1 112.3 42.0 85.8 28.4 61.7
DANTOR 403.7 123.4 264.3 95.8 216.5 99.5 204.9 113.2 31.5 82.7 21.7 58.8
DUMAYUP 404.0 122.0 290.7 101.9 242.3 105.5 263.9 116.8 62.3 88.7 41.3 67.0
HALONG 435.6 120.5 265.1 91.4 213.3 100.7 177.4 104.7 28.9 80.6 20.0 51.8
IPO DAM 519.1 123.4 287.5 115.6 21.2 87.2 227.5 132.0 24.6 93.3 1.4 52.9
MAGAT DAM 359.2 126.3 261.1 106.2 226.3 109.8 281.8 130.0 47.4 89.4 31.9 77.4
MAPUTI 384.1 114.0 479.4 114.2 433.6 95.9 415.7 132.8 117.8 82.6 127.9 104.4
MARIKIT 401.8 120.1 347.7 105.5 225.1 99.9 290.1 101.4 133.2 87.4 86.0 56.1
MATULID 407.1 116.8 323.3 107.2 408.0 120.4 398.6 139.9 93.1 94.8 56.7 85.4
NORZAGARAY 517.2 123.6 283.2 114.7 20.5 88.1 223.7 130.8 21.7 90.6 0.0 54.1
PADALIS 412.2 120.8 315.5 100.3 219.2 111.1 242.8 100.7 98.6 84.2 62.2 50.0
PANTABANGAN DAM 410.8 121.1 257.9 93.6 158.6 113.9 173.4 95.4 74.7 76.8 45.5 39.6
SAN ROQUE DAM 493.0 113.2 225.2 66.8 73.8 82.3 73.1 79.9 19.2 72.3 9.5 29.0
STO DOMINGO 448.3 119.0 297.9 92.5 221.9 95.3 215.5 103.2 57.8 87.0 37.2 54.6
TALAGUIO 479.9 121.2 359.3 113.1 302.3 110.8 312.1 135.6 55.1 88.7 30.8 78.3
UMIRAY 373.8 116.1 450.6 114.8 597.0 115.3 491.6 136.7 168.7 97.4 125.0 94.6

Issued: 27 AUG 2025 Next update: 24 SEP 2025

 FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR SEPTEMBER – NOVEMBER 2025

SEPTEMBER 2025 OCTOBER 2025 NOVEMBER 2025

LUZON
CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
Abra RB 386.8 503.2 436.8 121.4 99.5 270.4 208.8 83.8 20.8 244.6 167.6 87.2
Abulug RB 327.8 399.2 365.3 124.4 185.0 283.9 251.5 88.4 156.1 344.1 258.3 96.8
Agno RB 433.5 626.9 497.8 116.6 174.1 292.9 225.0 84.0 60.7 206.6 100.6 101.1
Bicol RB 298.9 341.2 325.3 93.3 268.9 643.5 426.8 137.8 136.2 614.2 277.5 97.3
Bued RB 464.6 578.6 499.6 111.5 167.3 254.0 207.8 65.5 46.9 85.4 57.5 89.8
Cagayan RB 304.4 503.1 359.3 126.8 239.0 577.5 303.3 101.4 150.8 775.6 281.1 105.2
Laoag RB 386.0 438.2 416.8 117.4 57.9 211.4 140.3 73.8 19.0 200.1 97.4 74.3
Pampanga RB 368.2 696.6 439.7 120.0 159.7 485.6 268.0 104.5 0.0 545.2 139.6 91.1
Pasig-Laguna RB 302.1 547.7 408.9 118.7 255.6 580.4 360.9 130.5 0.0 704.8 314.5 140.0
Sinocalan RB 457.3 485.1 467.6 113.6 165.6 207.1 186.4 75.5 56.1 85.7 70.7 108.6
MINDANAO
CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
Agus RB 210.1 256.5 230.2 104.1 209.3 259.0 232.0 116.4 104.8 188.8 137.3 95.9
Agusan RB 144.3 260.7 201.9 105.7 205.2 316.7 269.2 120.6 164.0 413.8 238.3 99.9
Buayan-Malungon 94.6 163.8 130.8 103.8 118.0 249.9 192.5 124.0 83.1 189.9 139.3 105.9
Cagayan de Oro 228.4 278.0 256.0 104.5 215.8 291.3 255.2 113.9 105.0 195.5 149.2 98.1
Cotabato RB 120.2 290.8 226.5 104.6 178.8 325.1 270.7 116.8 124.7 229.0 197.6 100.2
Davao RB 223.9 264.3 251.3 112.0 247.9 285.4 267.1 111.9 151.6 233.9 212.5 85.2
Tagoloan River 224.3 281.5 253.8 104.2 243.4 315.2 285.3 113.3 139.8 204.9 172.2 100.5
Tagum-Libuganon 199.5 253.8 225.5 107.6 196.3 292.9 247.7 109.4 164.9 258.6 223.0 92.3

Issued: 27 AUG 2025 Next update: 24 SEP 2025

 FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR DECEMBER 2025 – FEBRUARY 2026

DECEMBER 2025 JANUARY 2026 FEBRUARY 2026

LUZON
CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
Abra RB 34.7 144.3 99.1 88.7 2.1 24.7 11.1 58.1 0.4 14.4 7.1 26.3
Abulug RB 108.1 225.8 163.5 99.4 22.6 103.1 55.8 83.3 10.5 43.4 23.9 42.4
Agno RB 32.6 152.3 64.3 85.2 0.0 41.3 11.6 59.6 0.0 24.6 7.2 35.2
Bicol RB 379.7 784.6 492.6 114.1 134.1 288.2 188.1 110.8 40.6 208.0 90.3 73.8
Bued RB 34.4 69.7 52.3 78.5 2.9 17.8 10.6 67.6 2.9 9.1 5.6 28.3
Cagayan RB 128.7 702.3 292.2 122.5 13.3 241.4 76.3 92.0 9.3 178.8 48.4 66.5
Laoag RB 39.4 128.4 76.4 82.3 4.1 41.9 18.0 53.8 0.1 18.3 6.8 17.1
Pampanga RB 41.3 460.3 164.3 101.0 0.0 183.4 43.3 70.2 0.0 140.7 28.4 47.3
Pasig-Laguna RB 119.2 590.7 325.2 131.5 0.9 230.7 84.0 112.0 0.0 151.9 45.5 68.0
Sinocalan RB 33.8 66.3 41.8 82.9 0.6 15.5 4.8 57.0 0.3 6.8 2.5 28.2
MINDANAO
CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
Agus RB 187.0 219.6 201.8 121.9 106.1 149.3 117.6 95.2 95.4 118.6 101.0 122.5
Agusan RB 242.4 421.8 317.6 111.7 262.8 755.2 464.5 109.8 200.8 574.2 341.5 119.5
Buayan-Malungon 125.8 174.8 154.3 113.9 105.5 153.8 126.0 102.4 69.5 108.9 89.3 118.4
Cagayan de Oro 192.2 213.1 203.1 123.1 108.3 144.0 123.7 95.9 99.0 121.3 109.2 125.1
Cotabato RB 135.7 264.6 181.0 115.8 104.8 288.2 132.5 109.4 80.6 223.9 113.1 110.8
Davao RB 193.1 245.4 208.8 119.1 143.0 259.8 179.7 98.4 111.0 208.7 148.4 104.5
Tagoloan River 211.7 254.1 233.8 124.0 139.3 245.7 191.8 99.2 118.2 186.5 150.6 127.1
Tagum-Libuganon 195.6 326.5 257.4 116.8 184.9 504.7 318.5 102.6 155.6 379.7 248.4 114.9

Issued: 27 AUG 2025 Next update: 24 SEP 2025

DRY DAY* FORECAST

(SEPTEMBER 2025 –
FEBRUARY 2026)

DRY DAY FORECAST

ANOMALY

Brown/Red shade –
increased number of dry
days

Green/Blue shade – less

than the usual number of dry
days, i.e., more days with
rain

* Dry day - defined as a

day with less than 1 mm
of rainfall is observed.

Issued: 27 AUGUST 2025

DRY DAY* FORECAST
NORMAL (1991 - 2020) FORECAST ANOMALY
PROVINCE SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)

(SEPTEMBER 2025 – ABRA

BENGUET
17
11
20
18
23
22
24
22
25
24
23
22
17
12
21
18
23
22
24
23
26
24
24
22
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
0

FEBRUARY 2026) IFUGAO

KALINGA
14
17
17
19
20
21
20
22
23
25
21
22
14
17
17
19
19
20
20
21
23
25
21
23
0
0
0
0
-1
-1
0
-1
0
0
0
1
APAYAO 18 21 21 22 24 22 18 20 21 22 25 23 0 -1 0 0 1 1
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 15 18 20 21 24 22 15 18 20 21 24 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
REGION I
DRY DAY FORECAST ILOCOS NORTE 19 23 24 25 26 23 19 23 25 26 27 25 0 0 1 1 1 2

ANOMALY ILOCOS SUR

LA UNION
14
12
19
19
23
23
24
24
25
25
23
23
15
12
20
20
24
23
24
24
25
25
23
23
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
PANGASINAN 15 22 25 26 26 24 14 23 24 26 27 24 -1 1 -1 0 1 0
REGION II
Brown/Red shade – BATANES
CAGAYAN
14
18
17
18
15
18
16
18
15
21
18
21
14
17
18
17
16
17
17
17
17
22
20
21
0
-1
1
-1
1
-1
1
-1
2
1
2
0
increased number of dry ISABELA 17 17 17 17 20 18 16 15 15 16 20 19 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 1
NUEVA VIZCAYA 13 17 19 20 22 20 13 17 19 20 22 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
days QUIRINO 14 16 16 17 18 17 15 16 16 16 19 17 1 0 0 -1 1 0
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
BATAAN 15 21 25 26 25 24 14 18 24 26 28 25 -1 -3 -1 0 3 1
BULACAN 13 18 19 21 23 21 13 15 18 19 23 21 0 -3 -1 -2 0 0

Green/Blue shade – less

NUEVA ECIJA 14 19 21 22 24 21 14 19 21 22 24 22 0 0 0 0 0 1
PAMPANGA 15 21 22 24 25 22 14 19 22 24 25 23 -1 -2 0 0 0 1

than the usual number of dry TARLAC

ZAMBALES
15
15
22
21
23
24
25
25
25
25
22
23
14
13
22
21
24
24
26
26
26
26
24
24
-1
-2
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
2
1

days, i.e., more days with AURORA 14

NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION (NCR)
15 15 15 16 16 15 15 14 14 16 16 1 0 -1 -1 0 0

rain METRO MANILA

REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
13 18 19 21 24 22 13 17 18 20 24 22 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0

BATANGAS 17 19 19 20 22 21 17 17 19 19 22 21 0 -2 0 -1 0 0
CAVITE 16 21 23 24 25 24 17 19 22 23 26 24 1 -2 -1 -1 1 0
LAGUNA 13 16 15 16 20 19 14 16 15 16 20 19 1 0 0 0 0 0
RIZAL 11 17 15 17 21 19 12 14 15 16 22 20 1 -3 0 -1 1 1

* Dry day - defined as a QUEZON

REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
14 12 11 11 14 15 14 11 10 9 13 14 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1

day with less than 1 mm

MARINDUQUE 15 13 12 11 15 16 15 12 10 9 14 15 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 16 19 20 21 22 21 15 17 20 20 22 22 -1 -2 0 -1 0 1
ORIENTAL MINDORO 16 17 17 18 20 18 16 15 17 15 19 19 0 -2 0 -3 -1 1
of rainfall is observed. ROMBLON
PALAWAN
15
16
15
17
16
20
16
22
19
24
18
23
15
15
13
16
14
20
13
19
18
24
18
23
0
-1
-2
-1
-2
0
-3
-3
-1
0
0
0
REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY 13 14 11 11 14 14 12 11 11 9 12 13 -1 -3 0 -2 -2 -1

Issued: 27 AUGUST 2025

CAMARINES NORTE 14 11 10 10 13 14 14 11 9 9 12 13 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1
CAMARINES SUR 13 13 11 11 14 15 13 11 11 9 12 14 0 -2 0 -2 -2 -1
CATANDUANES 15 13 11 12 16 16 16 12 11 11 14 15 1 -1 0 -1 -2 -1
MASBATE 16 17 16 15 18 18 16 16 16 14 17 17 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -1
SORSOGON 14 15 12 12 14 15 14 13 12 11 12 14 0 -2 0 -1 -2 -1
 NORMAL (1991 - 2020) FORECAST ANOMALY
DRY DAY* FORECAST PROVINCE SEP
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB
AKLAN 16 16 18 19 21 20 15 14 18 17 21 19 -1 -2 0 -2 0 -1
ANTIQUE 15 17 20 21 23 21 15 16 20 21 24 21 0 -1 0 0 1 0
CAPIZ 16 16 17 18 20 20 16 13 18 17 21 19 0 -3 1 -1 1 -1
GUIMARAS 16 17 20 21 23 21 16 17 21 21 24 21 0 0 1 0 1 0
(SEPTEMBER 2025 – ILOILO
NEGROS ISLAND REGION (NIR)
16 16 19 20 22 20 16 15 20 19 23 20 0 -1 1 -1 1 0

FEBRUARY 2026) NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 17 18 20 20 22 20 18 17 20 20 22 20 1 -1 0 0 0 0

NEGROS ORIENTAL 18 18 20 20 21 20 19 17 19 19 21 20 1 -1 -1 -1 0 0
SIQUIJOR 19 17 18 18 19 19 19 16 17 17 19 19 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
DRY DAY FORECAST BOHOL
CEBU
17
17
16
17
17
18
17
18
18
20
18
19
17
17
17
16
17
18
17
18
18
20
18
19
0
0
1
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ANOMALY REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
BILIRAN 15 15 15 14 17 16 16 15 15 13 16 16 1 0 0 -1 -1 0
EASTERN SAMAR 15 12 9 8 10 10 15 12 9 7 10 10 0 0 0 -1 0 0

Brown/Red shade – LEYTE

NORTHERN SAMAR
16
15
16
13
14
10
13
10
15
11
15
13
16
16
14
13
14
8
12
9
15
11
14
12
0
1
-2
0
0
-2
-1
-1
0
0
-1
-1

increased number of dry SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR)

SOUTHERN LEYTE
15
16
13
15
11
14
11
13
13
14
13
14
15
17
13
14
11
14
9
11
12
13
12
12
0
1
0
-1
0
0
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-2

days REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)

ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 17 15 16 17 19 18 18 14 16 15 19 18 1 -1 0 -2 0 0
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 16 15 16 17 19 18 17 14 16 16 19 18 1 -1 0 -1 0 0
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 17 16 17 18 19 18 18 14 16 16 19 18 1 -2 -1 -2 0 0
REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)

Green/Blue shade – less BUKIDNON

CAMIGUIN
13
18
14
17
16
18
17
18
17
18
17
18
13
18
14
18
15
18
17
19
17
18
17
18
0
0
0
1
-1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
than the usual number of dry LANAO DEL NORTE
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
16
16
15
14
17
16
18
16
19
18
18
17
16
16
15
13
17
16
18
16
19
18
19
18
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
days, i.e., more days with MISAMIS ORIENTAL
REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
17 17 18 19 18 18 17 17 18 19 19 18 0 0 0 0 1 0

rain DAVAO DE ORO 18 18 15 16 16 16 20 17 14 17 15 15 2 -1 -1 1 -1 -1

DAVAO CITY 16 17 17 19 19 19 18 17 16 19 18 18 2 0 -1 0 -1 -1
DAVAO DEL NORTE 16 17 16 17 17 17 17 16 15 18 16 16 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1
DAVAO DEL SUR 18 19 19 21 21 20 20 18 19 21 20 19 2 -1 0 0 -1 -1
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 21 22 21 22 22 21 22 20 22 22 21 20 1 -2 1 0 -1 -1
DAVAO ORIENTAL 20 19 15 17 16 16 22 18 15 17 16 15 2 -1 0 0 0 -1

* Dry day - defined as a REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)

SOUTH COTABATO 18 20 20 21 22 20 19 18 21 21 20 20 1 -2 1 0 -2 0

day with less than 1 mm COTABATO

SARANGANI
14
20
16
21
17
21
19
22
20
22
18
21
16
21
15
19
16
22
18
22
18
21
18
20
2
1
-1
-2
-1
1
-1
0
-2
-1
0
-1

of rainfall is observed.
SULTAN KUDARAT 16 18 18 20 21 19 18 16 19 19 19 19 2 -2 1 -1 -2 0
REGION XIII (CARAGA)
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 18 17 14 14 14 14 19 16 15 13 13 14 1 -1 1 -1 -1 0
AGUSAN DEL SUR 16 16 13 14 14 13 16 14 13 13 12 13 0 -2 0 -1 -2 0
DINAGAT ISLANDS 17 14 10 8 10 10 18 12 11 7 8 9 1 -2 1 -1 -2 -1

Issued: 27 AUGUST 2025 SURIGAO DEL NORTE

SURIGAO DEL SUR
18
17
14
15
11
11
9
10
10
10
10
9
19
18
13
13
12
11
8
9
8
9
10
9
1
1
-1
-2
1
0
-1
-1
-2
-1
0
0
BARMM
BASILAN 19 19 20 23 24 21 20 20 20 22 23 20 1 1 0 -1 -1 -1
MAGUINDANAO 15 16 17 19 20 18 16 15 17 18 18 18 1 -1 0 -1 -2 0
LANAO DEL SUR 14 15 17 19 19 17 15 15 17 18 19 18 1 0 0 -1 0 1
SULU 20 20 22 25 25 23 21 22 22 24 25 22 1 2 0 -1 0 -1
TAWI-TAWI 21 21 22 25 26 24 22 22 22 23 25 22 1 1 0 -2 -1 -2
 DOST

PAGASA
FORECAST VALUES
FOR SEPTEMBER 2025 – FEBRUARY 2026
The Weather and Climate Authority

Source: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/climate

• Tabular format
1. Rainfall (in mm and percent of normal)
• Province and Region
• Selected rain stations over dams and lakes
• Selected watershed areas
• Selected river basins
2. Rainfall (in terms of probability)
• Station (Synoptic and Agromet)
3. Number of dry days
• Province

Issued: 27 AUG 2025 Next update: 24 SEP 2025

 average

Issued: 27 AUG 2025 Next update: 24 SEP 2025

 DOST

FORECAST RANGES OF EXTREME TEMPERATURE PAGASA

The Weather and Climate Authority

Issued: 27 AUG 2025 Next update: 24 SEP 2025

 Tropical Cyclone Tracks Climatology with actual tracks from 1948-2015

SEPTEMBER DECEMBER
2 to 4 1 or 2
2025 2025
OCTOBER JANUARY
2 to 4 0 or 1
2025 2026
NOVEMBER FEBRUARY
2 or 3 0 or 1
2025 2026

7 - 15 TCs expected

Issued: 27 AUG 2025 Next update: 24 SEP 2025

SUMMARY
⮚ Cool ENSO-neutral is present in the tropical Pacific;
⮚ Most models predict short-lived La Niña conditions as early as the
ENSO Status September-October-November season until the October-November-
December 2025 season.
⮚ September 2025 – Above normal rainfall conditions in the northeastern
and southwestern parts of Luzon. Near normal rainfall in the rest of the
country.
⮚ October – December 2025 – Near to above normal rainfall conditions
Rainfall most parts of the country.
Outlook ⮚ January 2026 – below normal rainfall conditions in the western parts of
Luzon. Near to above normal rainfall in the rest of the country.
⮚ February 2026 – below to way below normal rainfall conditions in the
northwestern parts of Luzon and western Visayas. Near to above normal
rainfall in the rest of the country.
SUMMARY
• September to December 2025 - generally average to warmer
than average mean temperatures, with slightly cooler to cooler
temperatures in Coron, Palawan, San Jose (Occ. Mindoro), and
Temperature Romblon.
Outlook • January to February 2026 – generally average to slightly warmer
than average, with warmer than average in western Luzon and
central Mindanao. However, cold surges may still occur during the
forecast period.
Tropical • 7 – 15 TCs will likely develop/enter the PAR during the
Cyclone forecast period (September 2025 – February 2026).
Frequency
 PAGASA will continue to monitor ENSO
conditions and updates/advisories shall be
issued as appropriate.

Tentative schedule of
188th CF:
September 24, 2025
 DOST

https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph PAGASA
The Weather and Climate Authority

@Dost_pagasa

@dost_pagasa

@DOST_PAGASA

Thank you
TRUNKLINE: (02) 8284- 0800
EXTENSIONS

TYPHOON/WEATHER: 4801
FLOOD: 4855
CLIMATE: 4920 or 4921
for
listening!
MEDIA: 4865

climps@pagasa.dost.gov.ph