Report VI
Report VI
                                                                                               Vodafone Idea
   Estimate changes
   TP change
                                                   CMP: INR6.5                   TP: INR6.0 (-8%)                               Sell
   Rating change                                   In-line 1Q; debt raise crucial for long-term survival
                                                      Vodafone Idea’s (Vi) reported EBITDA declined 1% QoQ (vs.3%/5% QoQ for
                                                       Bharti India Wireless/RJio), ~1% above our estimates, as lower network
   Bloomberg                            IDEA IN
                                                       opex (+1% QoQ) was offset by higher SG&A costs (+8% QoQ).
   Equity Shares (m)                    108343
   M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)                 699.9 / 8      Operationally, subscriber losses moderated further to a modest 0.5m (vs. -
   52-Week Range (INR)                    17 / 6       1.6m in 4Q), while ARPU inched up 0.6% QoQ to INR165 (+13% YoY, in line).
   1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)            -16/-28/-61       Vi continued to lose market share as wireless revenue remained flat QoQ
   12M Avg Val (INR M)                     5068        (+6% YoY, in line), compared to ~3% QoQ growth for peers.
                                                      After a record high capex in 4QFY25, Vi’s capex moderated to INR24b (vs.
   Financials & Valuations (INR b)                     INR42b QoQ). Management indicated a capex of ~INR25-35b in 2QFY26,
   INR b               FY26E FY27E        FY28E        while future capex plans remain contingent on the successful closure of
   Net Sales              449      473       513
                                                       debt raise. Vi continues to engage with lenders; however, the fund raise has
   EBITDA                 190      200       222
   Adj. PAT              -266    -261       -221       remained elusive thus far.
   EBITDA Margin (%) 42.4        42.2       43.2      Despite equity infusion and acceleration in network capex, Vi has continued
   Adj. EPS (INR)       -35.9      -2.0    -15.4       to lose market share to peers. On our estimates, Vi lost further ~20bp QoQ
   BV/Sh. (INR)         -18.7 -26.8        -33.7       (110bp YoY) in subscriber market share (SMS) and ~30bp QoQ (~140bp YoY)
   Ratios
                                                       in revenue market share (RMS) among the three private telcos.
   Net D:E                -3.1     -2.5     -2.1
   RoE (%)                NM       NM       NM        Further, as we have argued earlier, tariff hikes do not benefit Vi as much as
   RoCE (%)               -1.9     -0.8      1.6       its peers. We note, Vi’s revenue grew a modest ~6% YoY, translating into an
   Payout (%)              0.0      0.0      0.0       annualized increase of ~INR22b vs. ~INR195b/INR140b for Bharti/RJio).
   Valuations                                         In the absence of relief on AGR dues (~INR164b annual repayments starting
   EV/EBITDA (x)         11.5    12.4       11.8
                                                       Mar’26) and the closure of debt raise, Vi’s planned capex of INR500-550b
   P/E (x)                -2.6     -2.7     -3.2
   P/B (x)                -0.3     -0.2     -0.2
                                                       remains in jeopardy, potentially resulting in higher subscriber churns.
   Div. Yield (%)          0.0      0.0      0.0      We cut our FY27-28 revenue and EBITDA estimates by ~4-5%, each driven
                                                       by higher subscriber declines. We reiterate our SELL rating on Vi with a
   Shareholding Pattern (%)                            revised TP of INR6, based on DCF implied ~12.5x Sep’27E EV/EBITDA.
   As On             Jun-25 Mar-25        Jun-24
   Promoter            25.6       38.8      38.2   Broadly in line 1Q; subscriber losses moderate further
   DII                 53.2       27.5      31.3      Vi’s overall subscriber base at 197.7m declined 0.5m QoQ (further
   FII                   6.0      10.1      12.7       moderation vs. 1.6m declines in 4QFY25 and our expectation of -1.2m.
   Others              15.3       23.6      17.9      Wireless ARPU rose 0.6% QoQ (in line) at INR165 (+13% YoY, vs. +1%/+2%
   FII includes depository receipts
                                                       QoQ for RJio/Bharti), driven largely by one extra day QoQ.
                                                      Monthly churn was stable QoQ at 4.1% (vs. a 40bp QoQ uptick for Bharti at
                                                       2.7%) and remains a key monitorable.
                                                      Wireless revenue at INR98b (+6% YoY, in line) was flat QoQ (vs. ~3% QoQ
                                                       increase for Bharti/RJio), as slightly higher ARPU was offset by modest
                                                       subscriber declines.
                                                      Reported EBITDA at INR46.1b (-1% QoQ, +10% YoY vs. ~3%/5% QoQ for
                                                       Bharti-India Wireless and RJio) was ~1% above our estimate, as lower
                                                       network opex (+1% QoQ, 4% below) was offset by higher SG&A (+8% QoQ,
                                                       8% above).
                                                      EBITDA margin contracted ~50bp QoQ (35bp above) to 41.8% (up 185bp
                                                       YoY, +20bp/+125bp QoQ for Bharti-India Wireless and RJio).
                                                      Pre-Ind-AS 116 EBITDA at INR21.8b (in line) declined ~6% QoQ (+4% YoY), as
                                                       margin contracted ~130bp QoQ to 19.8% (-20bp YoY, in line).
                    Losses narrowed to INR66b (vs. INR72b QoQ and our estimate of INR75b), due
                     to lower interest costs (-8% QoQ, interest savings from recent GoI equity
                     conversions).
                    Net debt (excl. leases but including interest accrued) increased INR69b QoQ to
                     INR1.94t. Vi still owes ~INR1.99t to GoI for the deferred spectrum and AGR
                     dues. External/banking debt declined to ~INR19.3b (vs. INR23b QoQ).
                    Capex moderated to INR24.4b (vs. a record high of INR42b in 4QFY25).
                 Key highlights from the management commentary
                    CEO change: Following the completion of a three-year tenure, Mr. Akshaya
                     Moondra has stepped down as CEO of Vi. The current COO, Mr. Abhijit Kishore,
                     will assume the role of CEO from 19th Aug’25.
                    Capex: 4Q capex stood at INR24.4b, with 4,600+ new broadband towers,
                     bringing 4G coverage to 84% of the population. Management reiterated its
                     commitment to INR50-60b capex in 1HFY26, but noted that major capex beyond
                     1HFY26 remains contingent on the closure of the debt raise and will be funded
                     by internal accruals in the interim.
                    Debt raise: Vi continues to engage with lenders other than banks as well for
                     closing the long-awaited debt raise. Discussions with banks have progressed
                     following the GoI equity conversion and credit rating upgrades, but banks
                     continue to seek additional assurance on the AGR dues. Management remains
                     confident that the GoI is committed to maintaining a three-private-telcos
                     construct and is hopeful of relief on AGR dues.
                    5G: Vi has rolled out 5G in 22 cities across 13 circles, marking steady progress
                     since the Mar’25 launch in Mumbai. Adoption has been encouraging, with 60-
                     70% of customers owning 5G devices already using the services where available.
                     The company’s focus remains on expanding 5G to key cities across 17 priority
                     circles by Sep’25.
                    Subscriber trends: Subscriber churn, particularly to BSNL, has stabilized since
                     Jan’25, with the company confident that the worst is behind. Efforts to enhance
                     network quality and customer engagement have begun yielding results.
                     Seasonality and labor migration impacted VLR subs in 1Q, but management sees
                     an improving subscriber trend as population coverage expands.
                 Valuation and view
                    Despite equity infusion and acceleration in the network capex, Vi continues to
                     lose market share to peers due to lower ARPU translation from tariff hikes, given
                     its inferior subscriber mix and elevated subscriber churn.
                    While Vi’s subscriber losses have moderated further in 1QFY26, we believe that
                     without the closure of its debt raise, Vi’s plans for a significant capex cycle
                     (INR500-550b over the next 2-3 years) remain in jeopardy, potentially resulting
                     in elevated churn going ahead.
                    Further, as we have argued earlier, tariff hikes do not benefit Vi as much as its
                     peers. We note, Vi’s revenue grew at a modest ~6% YoY, or an annualized
                     increase of ~INR22b, vs. ~INR195/140b for Bharti/RJio).
                    In the absence of a relief on AGR dues (~INR164b annual repayments starting
                     Mar’26) and closure of debt raise, Vi’s planned capex of INR500-550b remains in
                     jeopardy, potentially resulting in higher subscriber churns.
                    We cut our FY27-28E revenue and EBITDA estimates by ~4-5% each, driven by
                     higher subscriber declines. We reiterate our SELL rating on Vi with a revised TP
                     of INR6, based on DCF implied ~12.5x Sep’27E EV/EBITDA.
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                                                                                                                            Vodafone Idea
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                                                                                         Vodafone Idea
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                                                                                       Vodafone Idea
                    Reported net debt (excluding leases but including interest accrued and not due)
                     increased INR69b QoQ to INR1.94t. Vi still owes ~INR1.99t to GoI for the
                     deferred spectrum and AGR dues. External/banking debt declined to ~INR19.3b
                     (vs. INR23b QoQ).
                    Capex moderated to INR24.4b (vs. a record high of INR42b in 4QFY25).
                 Other highlights: Data usage improves, driven by IPL and unlimited data
                 offerings, but remains well below peers
                    Enterprise revenue at INR12.1b (+5% QoQ, -2% YoY) was ~2% above our
                     estimate.
                    Vi's data volume grew ~9% QoQ (+5% QoQ in 4QFY25), driven by an IPL boost,
                     and trended largely in line with 8%/12% QoQ growth for Bharti/RJio, including
                     FTTH, albeit on a much lower base.
                    Data usage per data subscriber increased to 16.3GB/month (from 15.3GB QoQ)
                     but remained significantly below RJio (37GB including FTTH contribution) and
                     Bharti (26.9GB).
                    Voice usage on Vi network declined ~2% QoQ (vs. -1% QoQ in 4QFY25, weaker
                     vs. flat to -1% QoQ for Bharti and RJio).
                    Implied minute of usage per subscriber declined to 590min/month (vs. 598min
                     QoQ) but remained significantly below 1,143mins/1,007mins for Bharti/RJio.
                    Vi's trade payables were stable QoQ at INR107b, primarily comprising dues to
                     tower and network vendors such as Indus Towers.
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                                                                                                               Vodafone Idea
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 Exhibit 5: Vi’s net debt inched up slightly ~INR69b QoQ; while capex increased to a record high
                                           Mar-21 Sep-21 Mar-22 Sep-22 Mar-23 Sep-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 Jun-26
 Debt and capex trends (INR b)
 Gross debt                                 1,803    1,948     1,979    2,203
                                                                        2,093 2,128 2,156                     2,210    2,257    2,297    1,973     2,011
 External debt                               231      228       181      151
                                                                         114    79    40                        46       33       23       23        19
 OCD issuance to ATC                                                      16    16     2                        2         -        -        -         -
 GoI debt                                   1,572    1,720 1,798 2,052 1,963 2,033 2,114                      2,162    2,225    2,273    1,949     1,991
   Deferred spectrum liabilities              963     1,086 1,139 1,367 1,307 1,351 1,411                      1,458    1,522    1,570    1,190     1,217
   AGR dues                                   610      634   660   686    656   682   703                       703      703      703      759       775
 Cash and equivalents                        3.5      2.5   14.6  1.9    2.3   1.2   1.7                      181.5    136.2    120.9    99.3      68.3
 Net debt                                   1,800    1,945 1,964 2,201 2,090 2,127 2,155                      2,028    2,121    2,176    1,873     1,943
 Net debt (ex-leases) to annualized pre
                                               26       34       25         26      25        26        25       24       23      22        20       22
 Ind-AS EBITDA
 Capex                                        15.4     13.0      12.1      12.1     5.6       5.2       5.5      7.6     13.6     32.1      42.3    24.4
   as % of revenue                            16.1     13.8      11.8      11.4     5.3       4.9       5.2      7.2     12.4     28.9      38.4    22.1
                                          Exhibit 7: Despite equity conversions, Vi still has large GoI debt repayments from FY26 and
                                          beyond
                                          Vi debt repayments (INR b)                                     FY26E         FY27E        FY28E          FY29E
                                          External loans                                                  18.7            4.6          —              —
                                          NCDs / OCDs                                                       —              —           —              —
                                          Government dues                                                  190           234          320            435
                                          Total debt repayment                                             208           238          320            435
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                                                                                                                                     Vodafone Idea
 Exhibit 8: Despite equity conversions, Vi likely to face ~INR300b+ annual cash shortfall over FY26-28E on average
 (INR b)                                              FY23          FY24           FY25               FY26E          FY27E       FY28E      FY26-28E
 Wireless subs (m)                                     226           213            198                 193            190         191
 Wireless ARPU (INR/month)                             132           143            157                 170            183         201
 Cash inflows                                           83            95            308                 405             96         115           615
 Cash EBITDA                                            83            84             92                  91             96         115           301
 Other non-operational cashflows                        —             11                                 64                                       64
 Equity fund raise                                                                    216                                                          0
 Likely debt fund raise                                                                                 250                                      250
 Cash outflows                                         117           121              196               334            397          435        1,166
 External dues repayments                               67            74               19                19              5            -           23
 GoI spectrum repayments                                17            19               22               131            270          270          670
 Recent GoI equity conversion                                                                         (106)          (200)        (114)        (420)
 AGR dues                                                                                               164            164          164          493
 Vendor past dues repayments                           (20)          (2)               55
 Capex                                                   34           19               96              129             118           87          334
 Likely interest on external dues                        20           11                4               17              30           30           77
 Gross cash surplus / (shortfall)                      (34)         (25)              112               50           (291)        (321)        (562)
 Change in cash and equivalents                        (12)          (1)               98
 Net cash surplus / (shortfall)                        (22)         (25)               41               50           (291)        (321)        (562)
 Cash surplus/(shortfall) excl. AGR dues               (22)         (25)               41              214           (127)        (157)         (70)
                                       Exhibit 10: For every INR10 ARPU change, Vi’s reported EBITDA changes by ~INR13b (~6%)
                                                                                                 FY27E Wireless ARPU (INR)
                                                                             163               173          183         193                 203
                                                              180            169               182         194          206                 218
                                                              185            172               184         197          209                 222
                                       FY27E Paying subs
                                                              190            175               187          200         213                 225
                                              (m)
                                                              195            177               190         203          216                 229
                                                              200            180               193         206          219                 232
                                       Exhibit 11: For every INR10 ARPU change, Vi’s pre IND-AS EBITDA changes by ~INR13b
                                       (~13%)
                                                                                                 FY27E Wireless ARPU (INR)
                                                                             163               173          183          193                203
                                                              180            65                77           90          102                 114
                                                              185            68                80           93          105                 118
                                       FY27E Paying subs
                                                              190            70                83            96         108                 121
                                              (m)
                                                              195            73                86           99          112                 124
                                                              200            76                89          102          115                 128
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                                          1QFY21   579         -6.0                                                                                                          1QFY21   280     114                                                                                                                             1QFY21   106.6   38.4
                                          2QFY21   555         -4.1                                                                                                          2QFY21   272     119
                                          3QFY21   547          -1.4                                                                                                         3QFY21   270      121
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2QFY21   107.9   38.5
                                          4QFY21   529         -3.3                                                                                                          4QFY21   268    107
                                          1QFY22   503         -4.9                                                                                                          1QFY22   255    104                                                                                                                              3QFY21   108.9   39.3
                                          2QFY22   480         -4.5                                                                                                          2QFY22   253    109
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Story in charts
                                          4QFY24   6,049    1
                                          1QFY25   6,111    1                                                                                                                1QFY25                  4.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              4QFY25   110.1    42.3
                                          2QFY25   5,992   -2                                                                                                                2QFY25                     4.5
                                          3QFY25   5,859   -2                                                                                                                3QFY25                     4.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              1QFY26   110.2    41.8
                                          4QFY25   6,166    5                                                                                                                4QFY25                  4.1
                                                                                                                                                                             1QFY26                  4.1
9
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Source: MOFSL, Company
                                          1QFY26   6,748     9
                                                                                                                                                     Source Company, MOFSL
                                                                                                 Vodafone Idea
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                                                                                                                   Vodafone Idea
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
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                         Vodafone Idea
NOTES
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