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“In Catastrophic Risk, author Richard Alfred provides us the 21st Century version of Silent
Spring, which foretold the risk to an earlier generation of complacency during a time of obvious,
pending catastrophe. Te world responded and now bald eagle populations are literally soaring.
Te risks we now face are on a much grander scale than we’ve ever seen. In this crisis, lies
an epic opportunity where people will thrive on what makes us the most human: Creativity,
Imagination, Invention and Innovation. Tese traits will unveil unprecedented opportunities for
those who embrace their power on the economic, governmental, social, business, technological
and entrepreneurial frontiers.”
Richard Sheridan
CEO, and Chief Storyteller of Menlo Innovations
Author, Joy, Inc. - How We Built a Workplace People Love
Chief Joy Ofcer - How Great Leaders Eliminate Fear and Elevate Human Energy

“Catastrophic Risk presents a critical examination of the fragile and perilous world in which we
live. Richard Alfred, a researcher, author and professor emeritus of efective leadership, ofers
us an unvarnished analysis of the COVID pandemic, climate change, growing income and
social inequity and other natural and man-made challenges that threaten to upend the social,
political, and economic world order. Trough his careful and thoughtful narrative, Alfred
makes a compelling case that we, as human beings, possess the natural abilities of intelligence,
creativity, and survival instinct to both understand, anticipate, and in many cases, prepare for and
mitigate risk. Fundamentally, it’s a question of leadership and the ability to build commitment
and momentum to efect real and long-lasting change. Tose of us in leadership positions with
opportunities to infuence must take heed of Alfred’s clarion call and mobilize our constituencies
and communities to bring about a more just, equitable and sustainable world.”
J. Noah Brown
President and CEO
Association of Community College Trustees
 Catastrophic Risk
Business Strategy for Managing
Turbulence in a World at Risk

Richard L. Alfred
First published 2022
by Routledge
600 Broken Sound Parkway #300, Boca Raton FL, 33487
and by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2022 Richard L. Alfred
Te right of Richard L. Alfred to be identifed as author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with
sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any
electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording,
or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for
identifcation and explanation without intent to infringe.
ISBN: 978-0-367-42532-6 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-0-367-42386-5 (pbk)
ISBN: 978-0-367-85330-3 (ebk)
Typeset in Garamond
by Apex CoVantage, LLC
Contents

Foreword by Kim Cameron������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ vii

Preface����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ix
Acknowledgments ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� xiii
About the Author ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� xv

PART I SETTING THE CONTEXT

1 A World at Risk ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������3
2 Deterrents to Action ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������17

PART II CHALLENGES AND DETERRENTS

3 Te Power and Peril of Pandemic�������������������������������������������������������������������������������37
4 Climate Change: Default, Mitigation, or Adaptation?�����������������������������������������������61
5 Social Inequality ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������91
6 Polarization: Factions, Filters, and Antipathy����������������������������������������������������������109
7 Changing Social Norms �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������127
8 Navigating and Falling Behind Change �������������������������������������������������������������������139

PART III SHAPING THE FUTURE

9 Rethinking Business Purpose and Strategy �������������������������������������������������������������159
10 Mobilizing ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������181
Index ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������197

v
Foreword

Dick Alfred and I got to know one another as we shared faculty appointments in the School of
Education at the University of Michigan. My appointment was joint with the Ross School of
Business, and Dick’s was an appointment in the Center for the Study of Higher and Postsecondary
Education. Dick’s scholarly work in the areas of strategy, organizational efectiveness and perfor-
mance, and leadership had a signifcant national impact on colleges and universities, particularly
on community colleges which form the backbone of higher education in America. His leadership
had an extraordinary infuence on the development of this unique sector of higher education and
the important role it plays in the lives of millions of students and their families.
In several forums and conferences, Dick and I shared the podium, sat on discussion panels
together, and listened to one another’s presentations regarding our individual areas of interest. It is
no surprise that Dick’s interest in the broader societal context of higher education and the impact
of organizations on society have led him toward developing this book.
Te book addresses several of the most critical and pressing issues of our time, namely, the
global pandemic, climate change, economic strain, social inequality, polarization, and changing
cultural norms. Dick’s insights highlight a number of important, memorable, and noteworthy
points regarding these issues and the potentially catastrophic risk they present individually and in
combination. You will, no doubt, make important discoveries as you read Dick’s analysis of these
sources of risk, and each chapter deserves careful attention. Some examples of insights that I found
to be especially worthy of consideration, contemplation, and action include:

◾ A variety of sociological and psychological inhibitors have impeded awareness regarding the
gravity of the challenges currently being faced. Behavioral mechanisms to minimize and
ignore threats are widely used, and awareness helps us confront them.
◾ Inaction on the part of individuals, and especially leaders and business organizations, can
escalate current challenges and turn them into existential threats. Business strategy has a
critical role to play in mobilizing action.
◾ Viewing disruptive challenges as single problems rather than in systemic terms contributes
to escalating potential of existential risks.
◾ Tree kinds of risk exist—operational (daily issues), strategic (the competitive world), and
existential (survival of humankind). Business must broaden its purview to attend to risks
beyond mere operational risk.
◾ Te impact of the global pandemic extends well beyond the loss of life and disrupted life-
styles. It includes a serious impact on social institutions that will have long-term societal
consequences.
◾ Te role of organizations and leaders—aside from government action—will be crucial in
responding to and limiting the impact of climate change. Business has a central role to play.

vii
 viii ◾ Foreword

◾ Societal inequality—especially in the form of confict-induced displacement, economic dis-

placement, climate change displacement, disaster-induced displacement, and opportunity
displacement—can, and should be, addressed by enlightened organizations and leaders.
Inequality is the prerogative of business strategy.
◾ Political polarization can be characterized on two dimensions—form (liberal–conservative)
and intensity (strong–weak). Leaders and organizations have an important role in managing
and leading change, especially if no center exists in the political arena.
◾ Te widespread dissemination—mainly through media outlets—of mistruths, falsehoods,
accusations, ofensive language, canceling opponents’ speech, and escalating scandals are
examples of changing cultural norms. Understanding truth is crucial and movement from
reaction to refection is an imperative for organizations and leaders.
◾ A widening gap between early adopters of change and laggards or refugees from change
being left behind is a challenge for leaders and organizations, especially when difcult trade-
ofs must be made between advantaging one group by disadvantaging another.
◾ New forms of leadership, new strategic options, and a new focus on communities rather
than mere organizations are among the prescriptions ofered to address the potentially cata-
strophic risks that are a growing threat in our environment.
◾ Leaders in business organizations of the future will be faced with unprecedented challenges
that can escalate to existential risk if not addressed; consequently, intelligently addressing
major challenges that have not yet become existential is a critical imperative.

Dick ofers key insights and informed advice regarding the strategic directions that leaders and
organizations must consider. His guidance is timely and cogent. Tis book highlights and clarifes
not only the key challenges we face in our current environment, but also the practical and insight-
ful prescriptions for addressing potentially catastrophic risks are a special strength of the book.
You will fnd the wisdom of Dick to be astute, helpful, and prescient.

Kim Cameron
William Russell Kelly Professor of Management and Organizations
University of Michigan
Preface

Te book you are holding was conceptualized in 2019 and written over two years leading up to
publication in 2021. It is not a product of advance planning nor is it part of a professional agenda.
Catastrophic Risk: Business Strategy for Managing Turbulence in a World at Risk is the capstone of
years of watching human inaction in response to risk. Risk beyond the boundaries of everyday life
fueled by three forces: truth compromised by fallacy, partisan antipathy, and outrageous conduct
at the highest levels of government. Te intersection of these forces became a personal call to
action. Media headlines played into the call as well as did scientifc fndings and critical analysis
by pundits.
Te spark that lit the fre came from author and journalist Mort Rosenblum, who, when asked
at the conclusion of a speech what it would take to move people from passivity to action in the
face of risk, responded “You have to scare the hell out of them.” Tat stuck with me. A tipping
point had been reached and I was of and running. A precis was developed, media resources were
plumbed for literature and research on causative factors in risk, and hours each day were spent
building the basis of business strategy in a world edging toward catastrophic risk. Te result was a
book integrating theory and research from business and the sciences, wide-ranging ideas from dis-
parate disciplines, and media accounts of the relationship between people and risk. My goal was
twofold: to bring catastrophic risk to the world of business and to further business engagement in
service to the common good.

To the Reader
Tis book is not a pop press, quick-fx business book, and it is not for the casual reader. It is a
carefully researched work that blends theory, literature and research, and practice to examine
the relationship between risk, human behavior, and business strategy. Readers accustomed to
receiving and processing information in sound bites will be challenged by ideas that are complex
and wide-ranging in terms of their application to business. Te chapters on behavioral dynamics
and climate change, in particular, will test the patience of readers because of the volume and
technical nature of the information presented. I contemplated reducing the narrative in these
chapters to create an easier read, but climate change and human behavior are preeminent factors
contributing to catastrophic risk and the time has arrived to act on them. Ultimately, this is a
book about risk, social forces, and human behavior—a relationship that is critically important
for business and best understood through the lens of the sciences. For the reader, this will mean
careful attention to concepts and ideas and re-reading as necessary to get the full beneft of
information.

ix
x ◾ Preface

Risk, Social Forces, and Behavior

Catastrophic risk is global in scope and calamitous in impact. When it becomes transgenera-
tional (afecting future generations) and terminal (capable of extinguishing civilized life), it is
classifed as “existential risk.” My interest in catastrophic risk had its genesis in our chang-
ing climate—climbing temperatures, more frequent and intense weather events, and warming
oceans. One could swim in the ocean in southeastern Maine in June rather than having to wait
until August. Te reality of a warming climate seemed obvious to me, but legions of naysay-
ers believe otherwise. Teir refusal to accept scientifc evidence thrust human behaviors such
as denial, normalization, and intuitive thinking which shape perception and response to risk
into a domain of risk. Behavior does not take shape in a vacuum—it is conditioned by social
forces that infuence what people think and do. Among the forces shaping behavior in American
society today are polarization, social inequality normative transition, and the experience of pan-
demic. When these forces are played out in the context of risk, a cause-and-efect relationship
is realized: social forces shaping human behavior determine response to risk and power its efect and
consequences.
Many forces are at work in our society and one could reasonably ask, “Why these forces
and not others?” Te answer lies in their power over people’s lives and their profound infuence
on thought and behavior. Polarization and social inequality are pervasive in American society.
Singly and in combination, they have the power to color perception, obscure consequences, and
impede response to risk. Social norms accentuate risk by sculpting perception and channeling
it into arenas of acceptable group conduct. And then there is the experience of pandemic—a
disaster that will forever infuence the outlook on risk of those who have lived through it. In the
domain of behavior, people meet risk in diferent ways depending on background, cognition, and
societal conditions. Awareness of diferent behavioral modes is important if we are to efectively
mobilize communities in response to risk. In the world of business, there are looming questions
about the scope and depth of business commitment to social responsibility. Knowing what it will
take to broaden business purpose in service to the common good is imperative in the evolving
world of risk.

What’s Inside
Tis book is divided into three parts that describe the relationship between risk, societal forces, and
human behavior and their implications for business strategy: (1) Setting the Context, (2) Challenges
and Deterrents, and (3) Shaping the Future.
Part I, Setting the Context, takes the reader into the world of risk and human behavior. Te
opening chapter (“A World at Risk”) describes diferent forms of risk and diferentiates cata-
strophic risk from conventional risk. Habitats of catastrophic risk are presented as part of a
“new abnormal” with climate change and rogue technology singled out as imminent threats to
humanity. A perfect storm is presented at the close of the chapter to illustrate the compounding
efect of thought and behavior on risk. Te focus in Chapter 2 (“Deterrents to Action”) shifts
to the human side of risk—thinking and behavior people employ in response to risk. Behavior
is described as societally induced, change-induced, and stasis-induced with behaviors in each
category having the potential to compound the efects of risk. Societally induced behavior is
a function of societal conditions—polarization, anomie, and information overload—which
deter response to risk by coloring perception. Change-induced behavior refers to the impact of
 Preface ◾ xi

cognition on risk—the inability of people to put risk in perspective due to fawed cogni-
tion. Stasis-induced behavior describes actions that deter response to risk by normalizing it
and making it part of everyday life. Alternative interpretations of risk are sought until an
acceptability threshold is reached, thereby avoiding the need to change personal outlook and
behavior.
Part II, Challenges and Deterrents, examines societal forces that condition human behavior
in response to risk. Six forces are presented: the experience of pandemic, climate change, social
inequality, polarization, changing norms, and social disparity. Chapter 3 (“Te Power and Peril
of Pandemic”) describes the pandemic’s impact on people and organizations and implications
for business in a post-COVID world. Chapter 4 (“Climate Change: Default, Mitigation, or
Adaptation?”) turns the focus to climate change and its impact as a graduated march toward
catastrophe. Te changing condition of atmosphere, oceans, and land is examined in detail to
reveal the signifcance of global warming as a threat to civilized life. Response strategies rang-
ing from adaptation to mitigation are discussed and new roles for organizations and leaders are
stipulated. In Chapter 5 (“Social Inequality”), inequity and its efect on the capacity of people
and communities to respond to risk are described. Te extent of inequality is revealed through
data, its harmful efects are described using economic and social arguments, and its impor-
tance for business is profled through the human rights commitment in companies of principle.
Chapter 6 (“Polarization: Factions, Filters, and Antipathy”) and Chapter 7 (“Changing Social
Norms”) consider the impact of partisan antipathy and normative transition on perception of
risk. Te diminishing ideological “center” of American society and the phenomenon of nor-
malization are examined in terms of their efect on perception and response to risk. Business is
challenged to fnd the “center” in relationship to risk and embrace and invest in social respon-
sibility or be left behind. In Chapter 8 (“Navigating and Falling Behind Change”), disruption
caused by asymmetry among organizations and workers impacted diferentially by change
is profled using industry data and reports. Business is called on to broaden the conception
of work to include investment in societal well-being—specifcally, service to communities in
times of crisis.
Part III, Shaping the Future, moves to the domain of business strategy and what compa-
nies must do to bring value to communities. Chapter 9 (“Rethinking Business Purpose and
Strategy”) introduces relational strategy as a means of delivering value to communities dur-
ing crisis. Relational strategy avoids the trap of “frontloading”—building strategy on the
basis of anticipated conditions—by backloading strategy to human needs in crisis. It is the
basis for delivery of optimal value to communities by moving from competition to collabora-
tion to alliance and, ultimately, to the goal of business as social purpose. Te closing chapter
(“Mobilizing”) takes the reader to tactics that business will need to employ to mobilize commu-
nities in response to risk. Leaders will need a greater understanding of behavioral dynamics and
enhanced capacity to relate to people on an emotive basis to meaningfully help communities
in times of crisis. Tis will require contextual understanding and an enduring commitment to
societal well-being.
At the close of a 40-year career as an executive and university professor in academe, I thought
my writing days were over. Te fre still burns, however, and it burns brightly. Risk took on new
meaning and urgency when coupled with growing evidence of climate change and the immediate
impact of pandemic. Add to this, the behavior, of people—heroic and otherwise—and it became
impossible to sit on the sidelines and watch words, behavior, and events turn our nation and
world upside down. Much of what was happening was stunning in impact and consequence—
a state of afairs that confrmed once again how easy it is to tear down institutions and
xii ◾ Preface

how difcult it is to rebuild them. Te ideas in this book will have a short or long life depending
on what readers do with them. If there is one idea, however, that readers take from this book,
hopefully, it will be that the business of business is not business; ultimately, it is service to the
common good.

Richard L� Alfred
Ocean Park, Maine
Acknowledgments

Te catalyst for this book was author and journalist, Mort Rosenblum. Years of watching mount-
ing evidence of risk met by human inaction reached a point in 2019 where enough had become
enough. Te time was January 2019, the place was Tucson, Arizona, and the occasion was a
seminar sponsored by Te University of Arizona under Mort’s direction, “Keeping Tabs on a Mad
World: A Correspondent’s Guide to Global News Tat Matters.” Mort’s approach was direct and
his message was clear—we have more speed-of-light access to information than ever before, and
yet we’ve never been so badly misinformed. His goal was to equip people who care with an idea
of how to follow and act on news that matters. In that, he succeeded and I am grateful to him for
the spark that mobilized me to action.
Good fortune comes in many forms, and for me it is my partner in life, Patricia Carter. Pat is
a vital part of the thought process that went into this book—its early development, chapter nar-
rative, and fnished editing before submission to the publisher. She is a brilliant content editor
and was in the right place at the right time with an idea, a sentence, a word—whatever it took
to get the message across. Te last set of eyes on the book before it was delivered to the publisher
belonged to Pat. I owe a similar debt of gratitude to Kristine Mednansky, Senior Editor, Business
Improvement-Health Care Management at Taylor & Francis Group. Kris is the consummate pro-
fessional one would hope to work with in creating and bringing a book to completion. She was
involved throughout the process—answering questions about protocol and procedure, providing
advice about form and content, and helping me through a section of the book that stretched the
limits of reality. I am also indebted to Noah Brown, President and CEO of the Association of
Community College Trustees. Noah reviewed the idea for this book at an early stage and rec-
ognized its potential for contribution to the world of business. His experience with professionals
across a wide variety of organizations and disciplines was especially important in framing ideas in
key sections of the book.
I have beneftted greatly from the wisdom and creative scholarship of Kim Cameron, William
Russell Kelly Professor of Management and Organizations at the University of Michigan. I have
listened to presentations by Kim for two decades—in particular, frame-breaking research on orga-
nizational abundance and positive organizational scholarship which has dramatically expanded
our understanding of organizations. Kim’s creative ideas about emerging directions in organiza-
tional scholarship informed my work and opened up new felds of inquiry. My research and writ-
ing over the past two decades have been informed to a considerable extent by Kim’s work. He was
an obvious choice to craft the Foreword and I am honored that he agreed to do so.
Countless hours went into this book—hours that tested family and personal responsibilities. I
recognize this and express my heartfelt thanks to Pat for her encouragement, for her support, and
for being there. Te privilege of sharing life with her is beyond words.

xiii
About the Author

Richard L� Alfred is an Emeritus Professor of Higher Education at the

University of Michigan. Prior to joining the graduate faculty at Michigan
in 1980, he served as an executive ofcer in the City University of New York
and the Metropolitan Community Colleges in Kansas City, Missouri.
He is the author of numerous books among them Developing Tomorrow’s
Leaders: Context, Challenges and Capabilities (2015), Performance: Te
Dynamic of Results in Postsecondary Organizations (2012), and an award-
winning book on organizational strategy, Managing the Big Picture in
Colleges and Universities: From Tactics to Strategy (2006). Over the course
of a 50-year career in academe, he has consulted with hundreds of orga-
nizations in the areas of strategy, organizational efectiveness and perfor-
mance, and management and leadership. Foresight into the future—a
hallmark of his books and written works—has shaped management and leadership practice in
colleges and universities throughout North America.
Dick holds a bachelor of arts degree from Allegheny College and master’s and doctoral degrees
from Penn State University. He and his wife Pat reside in Ocean Park, Maine.

xv
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