Stime Od Bryan Guy Thesis
Stime Od Bryan Guy Thesis
                         A Thesis
                 Submitted to the Faculty
                             of
                     Purdue University
                             by
                       Bryan P. Guy
                     December 2005
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
       There are a few people I would like to thank who contributed to this project and
assisted me greatly throughout the course of its completion.
       First, I’d like to thank my fiancée, Steph, for respecting my wishes to pursue this
degree, for her strength and support during our geographical separation, and for her
never-ending patience and encouragement in listening to my thoughts and concerns. I
am excitedly looking forward to beginning a new chapter in our lives.
       I’d also like to express my thanks to Dr. Fricker for offering his knowledge and
expertise when I often had a lack of it. I appreciate the freedom he gave me in the
approach I took and pace at which I worked on this project. I greatly enjoyed working
with him and will leave here better prepared for whatever lies ahead.
       Thanks to Nagasayan for allowing me to borrow his equipment and his
assistance provided throughout the project. I hope I returned everything to you that is
yours, and I wish you luck in your future endeavors.
       Finally, thanks to everyone else, including Karen and DJ in the JTRP office, my
advisory committee, my family, and my fellow graduate students and friends who made
my experience here a very enjoyable one.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
                                                                                                                         Page
LIST OF TABLES........................................................................................................... VII
ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................... X
CHAPTER 1 – INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................1
   1.1    HOUSEHOLD TRAVEL SURVEYS (TRAVEL DIARIES) ............................................... 5
     1.1.1 Example: Building a Travel Demand Model ................................................. 6
     1.1.2 Example: Updating a Travel Demand Model................................................ 7
   1.2    ROADSIDE STATION SURVEYS ............................................................................. 7
     1.2.1 Example: Bypass Feasibility Study............................................................... 8
     1.2.2 Example: Traffic Signal Re-timing ................................................................ 8
     1.2.3 Example: Crash Analysis.............................................................................. 8
   1.3    EMPLOYER AND SPECIAL GENERATOR TRAVEL SURVEYS ..................................... 8
     1.3.1 Example: Central Business District Congestion ........................................... 9
     1.3.2 Example: Airport Access .............................................................................. 9
   1.4    COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL SURVEYS ............................................................ 9
     1.4.1 Example: Commercial Vehicle Travel Demand Modeling .......................... 10
   1.5    ON-BOARD TRANSIT SURVEYS ........................................................................... 10
     1.5.1 Example: Redesigning Transit Routes ....................................................... 10
   1.6    HOTEL & VISITOR SURVEYS............................................................................... 10
     1.6.1 Example: Tourism District........................................................................... 11
   1.7    PARKING SURVEYS ........................................................................................... 11
     1.7.1 Example: Parking Shortage........................................................................ 11
   1.8    RESEARCH MOTIVATION .................................................................................... 11
CHAPTER 2 – DESCRIPTION OF DATA COLLECTION TECHNIQUES & METHODS 13
   2.1    LICENSE PLATE MATCHING TECHNIQUE ............................................................. 13
     2.1.1 The Clipboard Method ................................................................................ 18
     2.1.2 The Audio Method ...................................................................................... 19
     2.1.3 The Laptop Method .................................................................................... 20
     2.1.4 The Video Method ...................................................................................... 21
     2.1.5 The Photography Method ........................................................................... 23
     2.1.6 Summary of Methods for License Plate Matching Technique .................... 23
   2.2    OTHER (NON-LICENSE PLATE) MATCHING TECHNIQUES ..................................... 24
     2.2.1 Lights-on Survey......................................................................................... 24
     2.2.2 Automatic Vehicle Identification at Toll Stations......................................... 26
     2.2.3 Video Imaging ............................................................................................ 27
     2.2.4 Loop Detectors ........................................................................................... 27
     2.2.5 Traffic Signal Preemption Devices ............................................................. 29
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      8.3.1 Accuracy................................................................................................... 123
      8.3.2 Cost Items ................................................................................................ 124
    8.4    CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH........................................................... 125
LIST OF REFERENCES ...............................................................................................126
APPENDIX ...........................................................ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED.
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LIST OF TABLES
Table                                                                                                        Page
Table 1: Summary of Characteristics for License Plate Data Collection Methods ..........24
Table 2: Summary of Characteristics for Vehicle Intercept Survey Methods ..................37
Table 3: Summary of Characteristics for Vehicle Tracing Methods ................................42
Table 4: Summary & Comparison of Roadside Station OD Study Techniques ..............43
Table 5: Summary of Camcorder Features .....................................................................59
Table 6: Predicted vs. Actual Angles-of-View .................................................................71
Table 7: Perpendicular Vehicle Speed (mph) .................................................................74
Table 8: Theoretical Time-Length of License Plate Legibility (2.75” Characters)............88
Table 9: Theoretical Time-Length of License Plate Legibility (1.25” Characters)............89
Table 10: Observed Time-Length of License Plate Legibility (1.25” Characters)............89
Table 11: Identification Time (s) by Vehicle Speed .........................................................90
Table 12: Vehicle Speed (mph) above which Video Method is Recommended..............93
Table 13: Recording Time (s) by Method........................................................................95
Table 14: Maximum Flow Rate (vphpl) using Manual Recording Methods .....................96
Table 15: Field & Transcription Errors by Method...........................................................98
Table 16: Transcription Time (sec) by Method..............................................................101
Table 17: Standard Deviation of Percent Error in Trip Estimations...............................112
Table 18: Actual OD Matrix (OD1) ................................................................................115
Table 19: Sample Probe Vehicle OD Matrix* ................................................................115
Table 20: Estimated OD Matrix (Expanded Probe Vehicle Matrix) ...............................116
Table 21: 4x4 1600-trip Matrix (OD2) without Uniformly-Distributed Cells....................117
Table 22: 4x4 1600-trip Matrix (OD3) without Uniformly-Distributed Cells or Zeros .....117
Table 23: 4x4 16,000-trip Matrix (OD4) with Uniformly-Distributed Cells......................117
Table 24: 8x8 1600-trip Matrix (OD5) with Uniformly-Distributed Cells.........................118
Table 25: General Cost Items by OD Study Technique ................................................124
                                                                                                                     viii
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure                                                                                                           Page
Figure 1: Traffic Analysis Zones and Types of Trips .........................................................2
Figure 2: Sample Origin-Destination Matrix ......................................................................3
Figure 3: Bypass Analysis for Small Cities & Towns.........................................................4
Figure 4: Corridor Origin-Destination Analysis ..................................................................4
Figure 5: Types of Trips obtained from a Household Travel Survey .................................6
Figure 6: Illustration of License Plate Matching ..............................................................14
Figure 7: Types of Trips obtained from the License Plate Matching Technique .............15
Figure 8: Proportion of spurious matches for various block sizes & permutations..........17
Figure 9: Lights-On Method ............................................................................................25
Figure 10: Typical Layout of Toll Station .........................................................................26
Figure 11: Vehicle Signatures for Various Vehicle Types ...............................................28
Figure 12: Types of Trips from License Plate Follow-Up Survey Technique ..................31
Figure 13: Typical Layout of a Vehicle Intercept Station .................................................33
Figure 14: Handset-Based Location Determination using GPS ......................................40
Figure 15: Network-Based Location Determination using TDOA ....................................40
Figure 16: Plan View of Typical Camcorder Roadside Setup .........................................60
Figure 17: Elevation View of Typical Camcorder Overhead Setup .................................61
Figure 18: Lighting Conditions Encountered on the Roadside ........................................63
Figure 19: Following-Vehicle Obstruction from the Roadside Perspective .....................66
Figure 20: Following-Vehicle Obstruction from the Overhead Perspective.....................66
Figure 21: Obstruction Angle from Roadside Perspective ..............................................67
Figure 22: Obstruction Angle from Overhead Perspective..............................................67
Figure 23: Setup on Curves in the Road.........................................................................68
Figure 24: Dimensions of Typical Camcorder Lens ........................................................69
Figure 25: Illustration of Angles-of-View .........................................................................70
Figure 26: Relationship between Focal Length & Angle-of-View by CCD Size...............71
                                                                                                                  ix
Page
ABSTRACT
CHAPTER 1 – INTRODUCTION
        An internal-internal (I-I) trip is a trip that has its origin and destination inside the
study area. Usually, these trips originate in one TAZ and are destined for another.
However, a special type of I-I trip, the intra-zonal trip, is one that has its origin and
destination within the same TAZ. An internal-external (I-E) trip is a trip that originates
inside the study area, travels through an exit node on the cordon line, and has a
destination outside the study area. On the other hand, an external-internal (E-I) trip is
one that originates outside the study area, travels through an entry node on the cordon
line, and is destined for some TAZ inside the study area. Finally, an external-external
(E-E) trip is a trip that has both its origin and destination outside the study area, but
passes through the study area via two entry and exit nodes.
        In order to obtain a complete OD matrix, the number of trips from each TAZ (and
entry/exit node) to all other TAZs (and entry/exit nodes) must be determined. Therefore,
the OD matrix for Figure 1 is a 16x16 matrix (12 TAZs plus 4 entry/exit nodes). In
reality, however, OD matrices are much larger, because metropolitan areas may contain
hundreds of TAZs.
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          Figure 2 illustrates the OD matrix for the area shown in Figure 1. To illustrate the
location of the types of trips described above, the cells are shaded and labeled. In
reality, each cell would contain a number that represents the number of trips from the
origin zone to the destination zone. The sum of each row represents the total number of
trips that originate in each zone, and the sum of the column represents the number of
trips that have destinations in each zone.
          While complex travel demand models are typically developed for large cities,
metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs), and state departments of transportation
(DOTs), smaller cities and towns without a complete travel demand model sometimes
also require OD studies in order to evaluate alternative solutions to transportation
problems. These travel demand models can be used to evaluate bypass alignment
alternatives, traffic signal coordination and timing scenarios, and corridor safety, among
others.
          Figure 3 illustrates a bypass analysis for a small city or town. The objective in
this situation is to determine the number of E-E trips. The principles are the same as
those for a larger study area; however, less attention is given to I-I trips because the
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entire study area is considered to be one or a few TAZs. E-I (and I-E) trips are
determined by subtracting the traffic volumes on the link at the entry/exit node from the
number of E-E trips determined at that location. This process is conducted at all
entry/exit nodes. In the figure, the thickness of the arrow represents the relative traffic
flow from only one entry node to all other exit nodes (E-E trips) and the city itself (E-I
trips).
        The arrows in Figure 5 represent the traffic flows from one TAZ to all other TAZs.
The dark-shaded arrows represent inter-zonal I-I trips, while the lighter-shaded arrows
represent I-E trips. E-E trips can not be obtained from a household travel survey.
        The following examples are some common applications where household travel
surveys are generally used.
upset that road construction is not keeping up with the increased demand on the
roadways, and are demanding better short-term and long-term planning strategies. The
new MPO in charge of the area’s comprehensive plan wants to develop a travel demand
model to represent the existing transportation network and forecast future growth so that
road construction can be adequately planned and designed in advance of the demand.
To do this, a household travel survey will be administered to a sample of all households,
and certain households will be recruited to complete a 24-hour travel diary.
large geographic area. If the survey is being conducted for one or a few establishments,
the survey can be conducted as an intercept survey as people enter and exit a building
or site similar to an roadside station survey. Otherwise, to gather information on a large
number of establishments, the survey may be distributed to a sample of the population
at each establishment, similar to a household travel survey. The following are some
examples where employer or special generator travel surveys may be used.
collection method should be used for a particular type of OD study because of cost
restraints, data quality, and the reliability and accuracy of the results after post-
processing.
       While quite a lot of information has been published on how to best conduct
household travel surveys and travel diaries, especially in the Travel Survey Manual and
other documents published by the Travel Model Improvement Program (TMIP), less
information has been published on the best methods for conducting roadside station
surveys in regard to the data collection involved with each of those methods. The
purpose of this study is to evaluate both the conventional and experimental techniques
for conducting roadside station origin-destination studies through literature review,
surveys, field testing, and computer simulation, and subsequently develop guidelines for
conducting them. These guidelines, however, apply only to roadside station OD studies,
which are just one of the seven types of OD studies described in Chapter 1.
       The Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT), in conjunction with the
Purdue University Department of Civil Engineering, seeks to develop general guidelines
that will serve as a starting point for planning and conducting future INDOT roadside
station OD studies. These guidelines will be designed for transportation professionals,
DOTs, consultants, and others who desire to conduct a Roadside Station Origin-
Destination Study.
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       Data for origin-destination studies can be collected in many ways, particularly for
the roadside station survey. However, it is not always easy to determine which method
is the best for obtaining accurate data while minimizing cost with the resources available.
Each method has a unique set of characteristics with respect to planning, data
collection, and data analysis. The techniques and methods described in greater detail in
this chapter refer only to Roadside Station Origin-Destination Studies. To clarify, the
word “technique” refers to the procedure in which data is being collected, and “method”
refers to the means by which the procedure is carried out.
       Once each license plate has been evaluated for a match with all other stations,
the data is then expanded to determine the number of all vehicles at a particular station
that pass by any of the other stations, which are considered E-E or through trips. Figure
7 illustrates the types of trips that are obtained as a result of a cordon station license
plate match. The lighter-shaded arrows represent E-E trips from one entry node to all
other exit nodes on the cordon line. The single dark-shaded arrow represents all E-I
trips from the entry node to all TAZs. While the license plate matching technique can
determine the number of E-I trips, it is unknown how these E-I trips are distributed to
each TAZ. This technique is most appropriate when conducting OD studies on small
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cities and towns where internal trips (I-E or E-I) do not have to be assigned to a
particular TAZ (origin or destination) inside the cordon line.
Figure 7: Types of Trips obtained from the License Plate Matching Technique
       The license plate matching technique has several advantages. The only data
that is recorded is the license plate, time, and if necessary, vehicle classification.
Because there are no driver surveys and vehicles are only monitored from the roadside,
this technique is unobtrusive to the drivers and safer for the observers. The data
reduction process is simpler than that of a questionnaire, but may or may not be as time-
consuming. In addition, the amount of data that can be collected for a particular road is
only limited to the means by which it is being collected. In other words, a fairly large
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ratio of the vehicles on the roadway can be sampled relative to that of one observer with
other techniques. According to Turner (1996), this data can provide an estimate of travel
times (if there are enough matches and precise time stamps) over the course of the
study period. Also, the technique can be used on most types of roads (Turner et al.,
1998).
         However, some disadvantages exist. The weather can pose a problem
depending upon the method chosen to record license plates, and fatigue can be a
problem for observers if the data collection period is too long or too intense. Also, errors
can be introduced in several processes during the data collection and reduction periods
of identifying, recording, and transcribing each license plate. In addition, large amounts
of data can be lost due to equipment failure (such as loss of power in audio recorders,
laptops, or camcorders in the field during the study), which would require redoing parts
of the study, which is both costly and time-consuming. Locations for the roadside
stations are important, given that vehicles traveling in platoons (particularly near signals)
or low speeds may block the view of other vehicles’ license plates, especially if
camcorders or cameras are used to record them. Similarly, vehicles traveling freely at
high speeds may pass too quickly to be recorded. Furthermore, some vehicles may
have license plates that are missing, damaged, dirty, covered, or blocked. For large
surveys, adequately training and mobilizing the observers can be a challenge (Martin,
1993).
         There has also been some concern about spurious matches, which are produced
when two partial license plate entries that actually belong to two different vehicles are
matched (Slavik, 1986). However, Slavik determined that the effect of spurious matches
could be virtually eliminated by updating the time at least every 5 minutes and/or
increasing the number of characters (or permutations) recorded for each entry. The
number of permutations N depends on how many characters are recorded. For three
numbers, there are 1,000 permutations (10³). 10,000 permutations are achieved by
recording four numbers (104) or three letters (22³), assuming that 22 of the 26 letters of
the alphabet are used on license plates. Figure 8 illustrates this.
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        Figure 8: Proportion of spurious matches for various block sizes & permutations
        Source: Slavik (1986)
        In Figure 8, the size of the block refers to the precision with which the time
stamps are recorded for each license plate entry. Small blocks refer to precision of less
than 5 minutes; medium blocks are between 5 and 15 minutes; and large blocks are
greater than 15 minutes.
        The effect of spurious matches is only an issue when large blocks are used for
any number of permutations, or for medium blocks with 1,000 permutations. In most
situations, it is not difficult to obtain small blocks. It is important, however, that
timepieces be synchronized between stations.
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PDAs, it is likely unsuitable for recognizing quickly-written license plate strings due to the
fact that recognition accuracy is extremely important. Therefore, this was not evaluated
as part of this study.
sound similar. The phonetic alphabet (alpha, bravo…) works better but requires lots of
time and resources to train staff (Martin, 1993). Higher-pitched (women’s) voices are
typically easier to understand, and it is best for the observers to transcribe their own
audio recordings if possible.
         Like handwritten character recognition discussed in the previous section, speech
recognition software exists that will convert spoken words into digital characters, which
has the potential to eliminate the time-consuming process of transcribing the license
plate strings from the audio recordings to the software for matching with other stations
(Washburn et al., 1997).
         The main advantage in using speech recognition software is the time saved
transcribing the license plate records manually into software. As stated above, manual
audio transcription typically takes two to three hours for every hour of tape (Turner et al.,
1998).
         Speech recognition software, however, has generally been created for
recognizing spoken words, not for recognizing individual letters and numbers of a license
plate string on a noisy roadside station. Unfortunately, this may cause the automatic
transcription process to have very high error. Evaluation of this technology was not
conducted as part of this project.
second for each license plate, allowing precise travel times to be calculated for matched
vehicles. Furthermore, transcription is not necessary, resulting in no transcription errors
and time saved in post processing the data.
        However, as with the clipboard method, license plates will be recorded incorrectly
at varying degrees depending on the typing skills of the observer. In addition, it may not
be cost effective to provide a laptop for each data collector, especially if there are many
stations in the study. In addition, laptop computers cannot be utilized in the rain. Still
another problem is providing an adequate amount of power to each laptop for the entire
study period, which could be problematic for long study periods.
glare, traffic conditions such as flow rate, speed, and headways, and camera settings
such as zoom, shutter speed, exposure, and these settings may have to be changed
throughout the study period. Also, video camcorders do not necessarily eliminate
manpower, as a person may be required to be at the camcorder site to keep the camera
running (battery power and tape replacement) and to prevent theft. In addition, while a
lot of license plates can be recorded, this method still requires someone or something to
transcribe the license plate strings from the video to a computer. Like the audio method,
this process is a long, monotonous, and sometimes frustrating process.
       Like the clipboard and audio methods described earlier, technology exists to
convert the license plate strings from the video automatically to digital characters. There
are a few steps in this process. First, the video has to be filtered so that one frame
containing a license plate is from each passing vehicle is saved (the others can be
removed). Second, the actual license plate has to be found within the frame. Finally,
the digits on the license plate have to be read from the video frame (Gupta et al., 2002).
       The obvious and biggest advantage in using character recognition for
transcription is the time saving over manual transcription. Even if only the first step of
the process is completed (frame filtering), the time to manually transcribe the license
plate strings is greatly reduced.
       The biggest disadvantage in using automatic transcription is that there may still
be some transcription error (due to the capabilities of the license plate reader and poor
quality of video). Automatic transcription typically yields fewer license plates than
manual transcription, although it can be combined with manual transcription (Shuldiner,
1996), in which case, a human tries to identify license plate characters that the machine
cannot. This technology is also relatively new, so most software is proprietary and not
readily found on the market. For these reasons, character recognition of video images
was not evaluated as part of this project. If used, however, there may be additional
constraints during the video recording process on the roadside. License plate
transcription systems are not standardized, are sensitive to ambient conditions, and can
be costly for small studies (Turner et al., 1998).
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        This type of setup could be used for OD applications. In this technique, the
observer is replaced by the toll tag scanner. Toll tag identifiers, rather than license
plates, are recorded and matched between stations. Accurate time stamps could also
be obtained for travel times. Toll systems (which often use some sort of radio frequency
technology) is very efficient at identifying vehicles. Typically, the recognition rate is
close to 100%.
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        On the other hand, some people may consider the use of toll tag information to
be an invasion of privacy. Furthermore, only a fraction of road users have toll tags, and
those users may not be a representative sample of the population of users on the road.
For example, toll tag owners typically have a higher income and are more frequent users
of the toll system than the average population of vehicles and subsequently will have
different travel characteristics. Finally, toll tag reading technology is limited to the
roadways on which they are set up, and they cannot simply be moved to conduct a study
elsewhere.
       This method may have certain advantages in a signalized network with closely-
spaced intersections. In those situations, it is likely that loops already exist on the
intersection approaches.
       This method, however, faces many of the same problems as video imaging does.
For example, the electronic signature left by one Ford Taurus should almost be identical
to the next Ford Taurus, which limits the area over which such a method can be applied
(for example, beyond an intersection). In addition, inductive loops are expensive to
install and immobile once they are installed. Furthermore, most loops probably do not
have detector cards capable of measuring (most loops are either activated or
inactivated) and storing vehicle signature data.
                                                                                            29
was recorded and contact information obtained) be included in the information provided
to the vehicle owner. This survey is usually conducted via a telephone interview or
postcard mail-out with response via mail-in, telephone, and/or internet.
       License plate follow-up surveys have resulted in both successful and
unsuccessful OD studies. They are beneficial in that they are unobtrusive like the
license plate matching technique, but detailed information (trip purpose, true origin and
destination, etc.) can still be obtained from the actual driver of the vehicle using that
specific road. Figure 12 illustrates the types of trips that can be obtained from the
license plate follow-up survey technique. Like the license plate matching technique, the
lighter-shaded arrows represent the trips from one entry node to all other exit nodes (E-E
trips). However, instead of one dark-shaded arrow that aggregates all E-I trips from the
external station to the internal TAZs, information provided from the license plate follow-
up survey technique provides information on the distribution of the E-I trips to each of the
TAZs inside the cordon line.
                                                                                             31
Figure 12: Types of Trips from License Plate Follow-Up Survey Technique
       License plates must be recorded roadside using one of the methods described
above in the license plate matching section. With this method, however, it is important
to record the full license plate of the vehicle in order to contact the proper state motor
vehicle department (the Indiana Bureau of Motor Vehicles does not have information on
out-of-state license plates) and a partial license plate will not be useful. The advantage
over license plate matching is that obtaining each and every passing license plate is not
as critical because the plates are not being matched to another observation station,
although it is still important to record as many license plates as possible. The license
plates will likely have to be transcribed into an acceptable format and sent to each of the
respective departments of motor vehicles to obtain addresses.
                                                                                               32
        Various DMVs may take longer than others to respond, and it may take a long
time to get a response from all DMVs. It may be helpful to contact the DMVs in the
region ahead of the study. Addresses are usually obtained from the DMV on a cost-per-
plate basis, which may become quite expensive for large studies. In some states, the
DMV may refuse to provide addresses due to privacy issues. For legal information on
license plate follow-up surveys in Indiana, see Chapter 5.
        In addition, some of the license plates may have been recorded or transcribed
incorrectly which will not provide any information. If license plates strings are recorded
without using video or photography, the state of the license plate may be difficult to
obtain (because the state name is much smaller than the serial number), especially on
commercial vehicle license plates, which often have single-color (often white)
backgrounds with black or blue characters. Unfortunately, out-of-state vehicles will likely
have different travel patterns than in-state vehicles (generally, a higher proportion of out-
of-state vehicles will be through trips).
        Once the addresses are obtained, surveys are usually mailed out to the owners.
It is best if this can be done in three to five days, so the trip that is referred to in the
survey is still fresh in the mind of the driver. However, it may be that the owner of the
vehicle (especially commercial vehicles) was not the driver at the time the license plate
was recorded, or the owner may not want to respond to the survey for some reason.
Some people may be upset knowing that they were being watched and will not respond
due to privacy concerns.
        Once the surveys are mailed out, low response rates are usually expected
(generally, 15 – 30%). However, providing more than one line of communication (such
as internet) may help increase the response. Also, using an internet response may
seem easiest, but by doing so, the responding sample will likely be small and
unrepresentative of the population of drivers observed on the road. There are many
ways the survey responses can become biased. Unlike the license plate matching
technique, a lot of time has to be spent reducing returned survey forms. In addition,
more money is spent for printing and mailing the survey forms (Quiroga, 2000).
stations are selected where trip information is desired. All vehicles or a random sample
of vehicles are then stopped along the roadway where drivers will voluntarily undergo a
roadside interview or be provided with a survey (to be completed after their trip and
mailed back). Both methods may be used in the same study (generally when roadside
interviews cause backups along the roadway upstream from the interview station), but
both methods should not be used on the same driver. Drivers should always be made
aware of the upcoming study via warning signs and traffic control barriers, and may be
intercepted with the help of police if necessary. Furthermore, an announcement to the
general public via radio, television, or newspaper may be appropriate. In some states,
this technique may be illegal. For legal information regarding vehicle intercept surveys
in Indiana, see Chapter 5. Figure 13 illustrates the typical layout of a vehicle intercept
station.
           This technique is advantageous because it typically yields more trip data than a
license plate match. The questions are also adaptable, depending on the circumstances
of the study (Virkud, 1995). The response rates are much higher than a license plate
                                                                                               34
follow-up survey described in the previous section, and are much less likely to be
biased.
          This technique is more intrusive to the driver than the license plate matching
technique. In addition, vehicles are stopped on the roadway where they interact with
interviewers at a station. This can cause delays for the drivers and other traffic and pose
a safety hazard for the staff. This technique also requires a lot of manpower in planning
and conducting the OD study.
as personnel safety, staffing requirements, travel delays, and privacy issues are
sometimes cited as reasons for not conducting RSIs.
        This method is not suitable for all roadway sections. Traffic volumes on high-
level roadways such as freeways, expressways, and some arterials present a safety
hazard to both drivers and interviewers. If, however, rest areas or other easily
accessible roadside areas exist in which interviews can be conducted, this technique
may be used. The roadside interview is more appropriate in rural areas, particularly
along rural two-lane roads. Wherever the interview is conducted, adequate plans for
warning signs and traffic control barriers should be drawn up for proper field setup (see
Figure 13).
after the trip, and mailed back. A given number of personnel could hand out more
questionnaires than conduct roadside interviews.
        The problem with this method is the lower response rate than with a roadside
interview. In addition, more of the questions may be skipped or answered incorrectly.
Generally, response rates for this method are between 15% and 30%. Furthermore, a
lot of time has to be spent reducing returned survey forms, and more money is spent for
printing them (Quiroga, 2000). There may be a bias in this type of survey, if non-
respondents (such as certain vehicle types or income levels) have different travel
characteristics and demographics than respondents. For example, surveys may not be
completed for several reasons: refusal to accept survey, failure to read it, failure to
understand it, failure to complete it, and failure to send it back (Bonsall, 1993).
spotted later in the study. In addition, litter could become a problem if tags are not
secured or drivers do not dispose of them properly.
        This technique is similar to the travel diary technique, but instead of recruiting
participants, training them, and distributing sometimes expensive equipment, the data is
recorded via technology and infrastructure that is already owned and used by the
general public such as cellular phones and GPS systems (such as the On-Star system in
GM vehicles). This information could then be obtained from a large amount of people
over long periods of time.
        This technique is a relatively new technique in that it has only been used in a few
small applications, usually to monitor traffic speeds. The biggest disadvantage to this
technique is that the much of the public sees it as an invasion of privacy. As a
consequence, many of the private companies that provide this service are unwilling to
share this information.
        In October 2005, the Missouri Department of Transportation contracted with
Delcan Corporation and an unnamed wireless carrier to provide real-time, statewide,
anonymous cell phone data for monitoring traffic speeds on 5,500 miles of roads in the
state of Missouri. Similar, but smaller projects are also underway in Baltimore,
Maryland, Norfolk, Virginia, and Atlanta, Georgia (Yahoo! News, October 2005).
assisted travel diary without the need to distribute the GPS equipment. In addition, for
each trip, not only are the origins and destinations recorded, but the actual path used by
the driver is stored (unlike the clipboard and PDA-assisted travel diary methods).
        The disadvantage is that most customers would not approve of being tracked
without their knowledge, and it is not known how many would allow their data to be used
in an OD study. Furthermore, some information that is obtained via a formal travel diary
such as trip purpose and auto occupancy, is not recorded for each trip. Further
complicating this matter is the fact that only a small percentage of vehicles are equipped
with GPS, and those that do are likely to be owned by households with a higher-than-
average annual income. Therefore, the sample of vehicles being traced is not likely to
be representative sample of the total population.
Figures 14 & 15 illustrate the difference between the handset-based and network based
location determination technologies.
        The wireless phone tracing method has many of the same advantages and
disadvantages as the GPS method described in the previous section. The biggest
advantage to cellular tracing compared to GPS is that there is a much higher market
penetration. At the end of 2004, there were 182 million cell phone subscribers in the US,
up 23.4 million from 2003 (Cellular Telecommunications and Internet Association, 2005).
Cell phone ownership is likely to be more equally spread among the different cohorts of
age, income, and household size than GPS-equipped vehicles. Like GPS tracing, cell
phone tracing can also provide the actual routes of moving people rather than just the
origin and destination as in a clipboard travel diary or license plate match.
        There are some disadvantages with this method. Information such as trip
purpose, auto occupancy, and possibly travel mode may be unobtainable. In addition,
most cell phone owners, like GPS-equipped vehicle owners, would not want to be traced
without their knowledge. However, due to the deep market penetration of cell phones, it
may be likely that there are enough volunteers to complete a study like the travel diary
technique. In addition, while the FCC is trying to implement Phase II of the E-911
program, it has not been completed in every state and county. Furthermore, the
accuracy of the locator points is not as accurate as with GPS, and depending on the
technology used by the wireless carrier, location information may not be provided for
some phones located in vehicles (because they need a clear view of satellites). Finally,
by tracing cell phones, person-trips, not vehicle trips are being recorded. This may or
may not be advantageous. For vehicle trips, it is possible that there could be multiple
cell phones in the same vehicle (such as a bus). Likewise, phones not in vehicles (for
example, pedestrians on sidewalks) will have to be filtered from those that are. On the
other hand, all travel modes could be traced, which would aid in developing activity-
based travel demand models.
                                              GPS    Cell
          Equipment costs                     high   high
          Implementation Time                 high   high
          Subject to weather                  no      no
          Require separate traffic counts     yes    yes
          Travel Times                        yes    yes
          Vehicle Paths                       yes    yes
         To determine the extent of the use of the different types of OD techniques and
methods by other state DOTs, two surveys were prepared and sent to representatives
from each of the state DOTs. The surveys and the results are described below.
done via postcard during red phases on arterial streets. In New Mexico, RSIs can only
be conducted in rest areas.
         The Michigan DOT, however, has revived the use of RSIs in the state with the
approval of the Attorney General’s Office and the Traffic and Safety Division, and has
used them frequently in the past two years. In 2004, 19 RSIs were conducted,
interviewing 25,000 drivers and generating only two dozen complaints. Michigan has
used this method on both two-lane and multi-lane highways with ADTs less than 30,000
vehicles. They have stopped motorists near toll facilities, rest areas, and on the
mainline. Postcard surveys were also conducted in some locations with a 25% response
rate.
         Even though RSIs are legal in all of the states surveyed, most DOTs rarely or
never perform them.
3.2.1    Results
•     Does your state DOT have any written guidelines for conducting origin-destination
      studies (for cities and towns located outside the jurisdiction of an MPO)? If so, how
      could I obtain a copy of those guidelines?
         Four out of 17 states (24%) utilized some form of written guidelines, ranging from
         past experiences to TMIP documents.
                                                                                          46
•   Does your state DOT have a preferred data collection method for conducting origin-
    destination studies (whether completed in-house or by a consultant)? If so, what is
    that method?
       Four out of 17 states (24%) have preferred method (one state indicated two) for
       collecting OD data. Of the four states:
           •   Three indicated VIS
           •   One indicated LP matching with video
           •   One indicated LP follow-up surveys
•   If your state DOT or its consultants have conducted any origin-destination studies in
    the last five years, please complete sections A – F below. If not, skip to question 6.
       Twelve of the 19 states (63%) indicated they have conducted at least one OD
       study in the last 5 years. The following list indicates how many states utilized
       each technique and method.
           A. Roadside License Plate MatchingTechnique
               Six of the twelve states (50%) used this technique:
                   •   One state used the clipboard method
                   •   Two states used the audio method
                   •   One state used the laptop method
                   •   Three states used the video method
           B. Roadside License Plate Follow-Up Survey Technique
               Four of the twelve states (33%) used this technique:
                   •   All four states used the video method (three with manual
                       transcription, one with automatic transcription)
                   •   All four states contacted vehicle owners by mail
           C. Vehicle Intercept Survey
               Eleven of the twelve states (92%) used this technique:
                   •   Ten states used the roadside interview method
                   •   Seven states used the postcard handout/mail-in method
           D. Travel Diary
               Eight of the twelve states (67%) used this technique:
                   •   All eight states used paper travel diaries (two were part of the
                       2001 NHTS)
                                                                                         47
            E. Recall Interview
               Two of the twelve states (17%) used this technique:
                   •     Two states contacted households via telephone
                   •     One state contacted households via mail
            F. Vehicle Tracing
               One of the twelve states (8%) used this technique. The method was
               neither GPS nor cell phone tracing (a special study was created in which
               random vehicles were followed to their destination).
•   Is there any particular data collection method (not limited to those listed above) your
    state DOT has utilized that has met or exceeded your expectations in terms of time,
    cost, accuracy, etc? Please explain.
        Four of the 19 states (21%) indicated one method exceeded their expectations:
        •   Three states indicated vehicle intercept surveys
        •   One state indicated LP matching with video
•   Are there any methods that have failed to meet your expectations? Please explain.
        Four of the 19 states (21%) indicated one method failed their expectations:
        •   Two states indicated LP matching with video
        •   One state indicated LP follow-up surveys
        •   One state indicated roadside interviews.
3.2.2   Conclusions
        Several conclusions can be drawn from this survey. First, most states do not
have any sort of guidelines to refer to when conducting origin-destination studies.
Several of the responses indicated they were interested in obtaining any guidelines that
result from this study. Secondly, a wide variety of techniques have been used by the
responding states, with the most common to being vehicle intercept surveys, which
seems to indicate that, if conducted correctly, the VIS provides good OD information.
Finally, techniques that exceeded one state DOT’s expectations failed another’s (vehicle
intercept surveys and license plate matching with video were mentioned in each of these
questions). This may mean that certain techniques were conducted in situations that
provided poor results.
                                                                                         48
        Vehicle intercept surveys have not been conducted in the state of Indiana since
1991 due to an incident on an Indiana freeway that prompted a motorist complaint.
While the Indiana Attorney General intervened, it was unknown by INDOT officials if VIS
were officially made illegal or if the intervention applied to this single incident.
        Likewise, license plate follow-up surveys have not been conducted in Indiana in
recent years. Critics of this technique often state that obtaining the vehicle owner’s
address from the motor vehicle bureau is an invasion of privacy. During this study, a call
to the Indiana BMV was made to inquire about obtaining information from a license plate
survey for OD purposes. The BMV responded that under no circumstances would
personal information (including owner addresses) be provided, even to other Indiana
government agencies.
        To answer these questions, the Indiana Attorney General is being contacted with
assistance from the INDOT legal department for a clear and final ruling on the current
and future status of vehicle intercept and license plate follow-up surveys in Indiana. This
information will be provided under separate cover.
                                                                                          49
       The purpose of this chapter is to evaluate the technology and equipment used in
various methods of recording license plate strings (either 4-character or full strings) from
a roadside station. These strings can then be matched with a list of license plate strings
obtained at other roadside stations (the license plate matching technique), or the strings
can be used to obtain addresses of vehicle owners to which a survey can be mailed
seeking specific trip information (the license plate follow-up survey technique).
           Like the cassette recorder, digital recorders typically have several recording
modes. Similarly, the higher the quality of the recording, the faster the storage is used.
           The recorder may also have a microphone sensitivity adjustment. Usually, there
is a setting for dictation and another for recording sounds in all directions. For recording
license plates along the roadside, the microphone sensitivity should likely be set on the
dictation setting to minimize the amount of background noise that is recorded, which can
reduce the quality of the license plate records during playback.
           Compared to the cassette recorder, the digital recorder is a little more
complicated than the cassette recorder to run at first, mainly to learn how the file storage
system works. Because there is no external storage medium like a cassette, the data
has to be deleted or downloaded when it becomes full. For a long OD study, the data
would have to be downloaded several times during the study period (which requires a
laptop and time away from continuously recording plates) or a multiple recorders at each
station.
           Like the cassette recorder, digital recorders may also have the VOR feature,
although it may have a different name. For either recorder, it is recommended that this
feature be turned off.
when noise levels are minimal. The VOR sensitivity feature can be set on high, low, or
off. The recorder also contains a tape counter and one-finger rewind, fast-forward, and
pause for easier review during playback. The recorder runs on 2 AA alkaline batteries or
an AC adaptor (not included). The microphone is built in on the end of the unit (separate
from the playback speaker). This particular model does not have a separate microphone
jack, but it can be found on other Sony models. An earphone jack and earphones are
also included. The dimensions of the unit are 2 ½” x 4 ¾” x 1”, and it weighs 4.0 oz. A
4-pack of standard micro-cassettes with 60 min of recording time per cassette costs less
than $5.
important features to look for when purchasing digital camcorders for the purpose of
recording license plates on the roadside.
5.6.1   Resolution
        Resolution is one of the primary benefits of digital video. While 8mm analog
(VHS) camcorders have up to 250 lines of resolution, digital cameras have up to 520
lines, although the actual resolution is likely to be lower and varies from model to model.
Hi8, a higher-quality 8mm, can achieve only 400 lines. Furthermore, digital video quality
is not reduced by making copies or in storage over time, and editing is much easier.
and burned to DVDs for storage. If no editing is desired, it can always be stored on the
MiniDV tape itself. These currently cost about $5-7 per (one-hour) tape.
        Some of the more technical details of a digital camcorder for recording vehicle
license plates for an OD study include color, magnification, focus, shutter speed, and
exposure. These are discussed in greater detail below.
5.6.6   Focus
        Focus is an important part of recording video, especially for license plates.
Camcorders usually have automatic focus and manual focus options. For manual focus,
the best type of manual focus is a focus ring, which is usually located around the lens.
Some camcorders have a jog dial (similar to a sliding switch) or a focus button. Sony
                                                                                            58
has a “spot focus” feature, where the user can use the touch-screen LCD viewfinder to
place the focus on a specific object.
5.6.8   Exposure/Aperture
        While the shutter controls the interval in which light is admitted, the exposure or
aperture controls the amount of light during any given interval. The bigger the aperture,
the more light is let in, which results in a brighter picture. Because most consumers (and
transportation professionals) are not photography experts, most camcorders produced
today have an automatic mode that controls the exposure. Many also have programmed
auto exposure (and shutter speed) modes such as “sports”, “candlelight”, “spotlight”,
“snow”, etc. (easycamcorders.com, 2005)
video playback was controlled. If multiple camcorders are used in a study, not all need
to have slow-motion capabilities. Instead, the one camcorder with these features can be
used to play back the video recorded on all other camcorders.
       Another feature that was only available on one of the camcorders was a time
stamp that was precise to the nearest second. While all models typically measure the
location of the tape in an hour, minute, second, and frame format, this information can
only be shown on the viewfinder, but not the television screen during playback. The
information that can be viewed on the television screen during playback is the actual
date and time. However, only one of the models measured the time to the nearest
second (the other two measured the nearest minute). While this precision is likely not
necessary for the average OD study, a time stamp to the nearest second may be useful,
for example, in conducting a travel time study on a corridor.
       Both the PV-GS19 and ZR-80 are low-end consumer camcorders, while the GL2
is a professional grade camcorder. It can be seen that, while the GL2 is much more
expensive than its low-end counterparts, the only feature that is significantly different is
                                                                                           60
the number and size of the CCDs. For license plate recording, this feature is not very
important, because the quality of the color on the video will not have much (if any) effect
on the clarity of the license plate digits.
       In the figures above, the subscript h refers to horizontal dimensions, and the
subscript v refers to vertical dimensions. The distance from the lane edge at which the
camcorder is set (on a tripod) is noted by n. This distance should be minimized, but the
safety of the observer (camcorder operator) is most important. Advanced warning
and/or traffic cones should be utilized to emphasize the observer’s presence, especially
on high speed and rural roads.
       The shooting angle is the angle between the center of the field of view and some
reference line. The shooting angle is denoted by θ in Figures 16 and 17. This angle is
measured from a line parallel to the centerline of the driving lane. Therefore, when θ = 0
degrees, the camcorder is aimed parallel to the road; and when θ = 90 degrees, the
camcorder is aimed perpendicular to the road.
       The angle-of-view is the angle between the edges of the picture and the
camcorder lens, and is denoted by Φ in Figures 16 and 17. For small zooms and focal
lengths, Φ is a wide angle. As the zoom and focal length increase, Φ decreases. The
relationship between zoom and angle-of-view will be discussed in greater detail later.
The shooting angle θ bisects the angle-of-view Φ.
       The left (bottom) edge of the picture on the viewfinder is the left (bottom) edge of
the field-of-view. This line can be denoted as θa (in Figures 16 and 17) which is equal to
θ + ½ Φ. Likewise, the right (top) edge of the field-of-view, denoted as θb, is equal to θ -
½ Φ. As Φ decreases, θa and θb approach θ.
       For a vehicle traveling on the roadway, its license plate will appear on the
viewfinder at point a, which is the point where the line along θa intersects with the
                                                                                            62
centerline of the driving lane. Likewise, the license plate will disappear from the
viewfinder at point b, which is the point at which the line along θb intersects with the
centerline of the lane. The distance L between points a and b can be found using simple
trigonometry. The time the license plate remains in the field-of-view tL for a given Φ is a
function of the speed of the vehicle v. Values for each of these variables assume the
license plate is mounted on the center of the vehicle on a vehicle traveling down the
center of the lane.
          Upon evaluation of each of the settings, it is evident that lighting is not a problem
the vast majority of the time. In most conditions, the automatic exposure setting
provided an adequate amount of light that was neither too bright nor too dark to see the
contrast between the license plate string and the background of the license plate. There
are a few circumstances worth noting that are discussed in greater detail below.
          Typically, the preset exposure settings had little visual effect on the quality of the
footage. The surf & ski mode (for high-glare situations) did not seem to have much
effect in sunny conditions. The automatic setting for exposure was relatively the same
as the preset modes under all lighting conditions.
          Under the ‘sun overhead’ condition, many license plates were recorded that were
partially shadowed due to being inset into the vehicle. In all cases, the contrast between
the sun and shadowed parts of the plate did not affect the legibility of the license plate
string.
          When the sun is behind the camcorder, glare (white-out of the license plate) is
very rarely a problem. Glare occurs when the angle at which the license plate is
mounted on the vehicle (uncontrollable) and the angle of the camcorder relative to the
sun (controllable) are equal. To avoid this, the camcorder angle should not be
positioned such that the sunlight hits the license plate and bounces directly towards the
camcorder. This, however, cannot be controlled for every passing vehicle. However, as
will be discussed later, the camcorder angle is also governed by traffic speed and
                                                                                               64
vehicle flow so, ultimately, it is impossible to prevent glare in all circumstances for all
vehicles.
        When the sun was in front of the camcorder, silhouetting of the vehicle
(appearing black in front of a bright background) was also generally not a problem,
however, in this test, the vehicle was not directly between the sun and the camcorder.
Obviously, the sun should not appear directly in the viewfinder, but this is also largely a
function of the alignment of the roadway relative to the location of the sunrise and
sunset, which varies by time of day and season.
        It was not determined how much daylight had to be present in order for lighting
not to be a problem because the amount of daylight at a certain time of day changes
with the calendar. Generally, OD studies should not be conducted before sunrise or
after sunset for the safety of the observers. If possible then, studies using video should
be conducted during the season in which the start and end times occur during daylight
hours, preferably when the sun is already above the horizon.
5.8.3   Focus
        Most digital camcorders have automatic focus. Some, however, include manual
focus as a feature. The camcorders used in this project all have automatic focus.         In
most cases, automatic focus was not a problem. There are, however, a few
circumstances to avoid.
        First, when choosing a location to set up the camcorder, select a location that
does not have any traffic signs, posts, poles, or other obstruction downstream. The
obstruction-free distance depends on the camcorder shooting angle and the distance at
which the camcorder is set up from lane edge. If a post or other object appears in the
viewfinder when shooting a vehicle beyond it, the camcorder may focus on the
obstruction in the foreground image and not the vehicle.
        In addition, avoid shooting in an area where pedestrians can walk into the field-
of-view, for example, shooting across a sidewalk parallel to the roadway. This is
especially true when the shooting angle is less than 15 degrees, because the
pedestrians will remain in the field-of-view for a significant amount of time. If it cannot be
avoided, direct pedestrians around the field-of-view so they do not shift the focus from
the vehicles.
                                                                                             65
       Figures 21 and 22 illustrate the obstruction angle for three different following
times. Following time is similar to headway, except following time is measured from the
rear of one vehicle to the front of the next, and headway is measured between the fronts
of subsequent vehicles. For high speeds, the difference between following time and
headway is small. Following times are assumed to be constant for all speeds, but the
corresponding following distance increases as speed increases. As the following
distance increases, the obstruction angle decreases. Therefore, the obstruction angle
decreases as speed increases.
                                                                                                              67
                                         70.0                                                    tf = 1.0 s
         Obstruction Angle (deg)
                                         60.0                                                    tf = 2.0 s
                                         50.0
                                         40.0
                                         30.0
                                         20.0
                                         10.0
                                              0.0
                                                    0    5   10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
                                                                          Vehicle Speed (mph)
70.0 tf = 1.0 s
60.0 tf = 2.0 s
                                              50.0
                                              40.0
                                              30.0
                                              20.0
                                              10.0
                                               0.0
                                                     0   5   10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
                                                                          Vehicle Speed (mph)
        Depending on the radius of the curve and the distance between vehicles
traveling on the road (which increases with speed), the shooting angle may or may not
be reduced to zero. However, depending on the circumstances, that reduction may or
may not be advantageous.
adjusting the distance (called the focal length) between the lens and the CCD. Again,
the CCD is the digital version of film. Figure 24 is a simple illustration of a lens.
       An optical zoom of 10x means that an object will be magnified ten times as much
as the same object at a zoom of 1x. The zoom is directly related to the range of focal
length of the lens. For example, if the focal length of the lens ranges from 2.1 mm to
50.4 mm, the lens has a maximum optical zoom of 24x (50.4/2.1). This means that an
object can be magnified up to 24 times. A focal length of 4.2 mm on that same lens
corresponds to a zoom of 2x, a focal length of 8.4 mm corresponds to 4x, etc.
       Unfortunately, a zoom of Ax on one camcorder will magnify an object more or
less than a zoom of Ax on another camcorder. This is because the range of focal
lengths of the lens on the second camcorder can, and often will, be different. For
example, the lens mentioned previously had a focal length range of 2.1mm – 50.4 mm
for a maximum zoom of 24x (50.4/2.1). Another camcorder might have a focal length of
2.8mm – 56.0mm for a maximum zoom of 20x (56.0/2.8). If both of these camcorders
are set up side by side and focus on the same object at 1x (or any other magnification),
the object will always appear smaller through the first camcorder. The reason for this is
the angle-of-view.
       The angle-of-view is directly related to the focal length. As the focal length
increases (and the zoom increases), the angle-of-view decreases. This enables the
magnified object to appear on the viewfinder or screen (which stays the same size, of
course). Theoretically then, at a zoom of 1x, the object shot by the first camcorder will
appear 75% (2.1/2.8) as large as the same object shot by the second camcorder. It
should be noted, that there is more than one angle-of-view, as illustrated in Figure 25.
                                                                                                70
However, the ratios between the angles-of-view remain constant as the focal length
changes.
        Further complicating matters is that, for any single focal length, the angle-of-view
depends on the size of the CCD. CCDs come in many sizes, between 1” for
professional-grade models down to 1/6” or 1/8” for consumer-grade models. Larger
CCDs are necessary if the video will be viewed on very large screens.
        The CCD is measured diagonally, much like television screens. Standard 35 mm
film, for example, actually measures 43.3 mm diagonally. It would be assumed then,
that a 1” CCD is 25.4 mm by simple unit conversion. Unfortunately, the lack of
standards complicates this even more, because 1” is just a nominal measurement. The
actual diagonal measurement of any size CCD is roughly (but not exactly) 2/3 of the
nominal measurement. A 1” CCD effectively measures 16.0 mm diagonally.
        Now that the effective diagonal length of the CCD is known approximately, an
actual angle-of-view can be calculated. Figure 26 illustrates the relationship between
focal length, CCD size, and angle-of-view. Table 6 shows the actual angle-of-view for
the PV-GS19 and ZR-80 camcorders. By looking at the predicted versus the actual
values of the angles-of-view, a significant error still exists in that the predicted value is
consistently higher than the actual value. This may be because CCDs of the same
                                                                                                                    71
nominal size may actually be significantly different (from model to model), or the actual
display of the zoom of the camcorder is not accurate in the viewfinder.
                               180
                                                                                                        35mm Film
                               160
                                                                                                        1" CCD
                               140                                                                      1/2" CCD
         Angle-of-View (deg)
                                                                                                        1/4" CCD
                               120
                                                                                                        1/6" CCD
                               100
80
60
40
20
                                0
                                     0.0      10.0          20.0        30.0        40.0         50.0       60.0
                                                                    Focal Length (mm)
Figure 26: Relationship between Focal Length & Angle-of-View by CCD Size
       All of this boils down to the fact that, for shooting license plates at an angle of θ
at a distance of nh feet from the lane edge, an optimal zoom cannot be specified to
ensure that the license plate characters will not be too small or too large for transcription
during playback. As a result, the magnification of the license plate will have to be
                                                                                                 72
roughly specified relative to the size of the viewfinder on the camcorder. This will be
discussed in the next section.
5.8.6   Magnification
        Because magnification differs among camcorder models, the amount of
magnification required for any setup location will be defined by the size of the license
plate in the center of the field-of-view relative to the field-of-view. The minimum and
maximum magnification will be discussed below in addition to the magnification
limitations on the minimum shooting angle.
        For any camcorder set up on the roadside or overhead, magnification will likely
be necessary in order for the license plate characters to be large enough to be legible
during playback. On many camcorders, the quality of the picture as seen on the
viewfinder is generally lower than as it appears during playback on a television.
Therefore, it may be difficult to know in the field if the magnification is enough for the
license plate characters to be legible. While there is some leeway, a good rule of thumb
is to magnify until the rear of the vehicle fills the width of the field-of-view. The ratio of
the width of the license plate w to the width of the viewfinder W is approximately 0.15.
For large shooting angles (above 30°), this ratio may be reduced slightly to adjust for the
skewness of the shooting angle relative to the rear of the vehicle. Figure 27 illustrates
this magnification ratio.
                                                                                           73
depends upon the speed of the vehicle perpendicular to the line-of-sight of the
camcorder. Figure 28 illustrates this.
         If the camcorder were set up in the center of the traffic lane at the height of the
license plate (shooting angle equals 0°), the vehicle would not move laterally across the
screen (although it would get smaller as it moved farther away). In this case, a very low
shutter speed would be acceptable. However, if the shooting angle of the camcorder
was 90°, the vehicle’s speed would appear laterally across the screen but not into the
screen. In this case, a high shutter speed is required to prevent streaking of the picture.
Because the shutter speed is sensitive to the lateral movement (or perpendicular
movement) of the vehicle, the perpendicular vehicle speed needs to be calculated in
order to find the optimal shutter speed. Table 7 illustrates the perpendicular vehicle
speed as a function of the actual vehicle speed and shooting angle.
                                10000
                                9000
                                8000
          Shutter Speed (1/y)
                                7000
                                6000
                                5000
                                4000
                                3000
                                                                                       Optimal Observed
                                2000
                                                                                       Optimal Assumed
                                1000
                                                                                       Minimum
                                   0
                                        0   10       20          30       40      50        60            70
                                                          Vehicle Speed (mph),
                                                 Perpendicular to Camcorder Line-of-Sight
                                 The percentage of the time that the left lane is obstructed increases as vehicle
speed decreases and camcorder shooting angle decreases. The graphs in Figure 31
illustrate these obstruction factors for four different vehicle speeds.
1.00 1.00
0.90 0.90
0.80 0.80
                      0.70                                                                                                       0.70
 Obstruction Factor
Obstruction Factor
                                                                                                   90 deg                                                                                                         90 deg
                      0.60                                                                                                       0.60
                                                                                                   45                                                                                                             45
                      0.50                                                                         30                            0.50                                                                             30
                                                                                                   15                                                                                                             15
                      0.40                                                                                                       0.40
                                                                                                   5                                                                                                              5
                      0.30                                                                                                       0.30
0.20 0.20
0.10 0.10
                      0.00                                                                                                       0.00
                             0   200   400   600    800    1,000   1,200   1,400   1,600   1,800                                        0   200   400   600    800    1,000    1,200   1,400    1,600    1,800
                                               Right Lane Hourly Flow                                                                                     Right Lane Hourly Flow
1.00 1.00
0.90 0.90
0.80 0.80
                      0.70                                                                                                       0.70
                                                                                                            Obstruction Factor
 Obstruction Factor
                                                                                                   90 deg                                                                                                          90 deg
                      0.60                                                                                                       0.60
                                                                                                   45                                                                                                              45
                      0.50                                                                         30                            0.50                                                                              30
                                                                                                   15                                                                                                              15
                      0.40                                                                                                       0.40
                                                                                                   5                                                                                                               5
                      0.30                                                                                                       0.30
0.20 0.20
0.10 0.10
                      0.00                                                                                                       0.00
                             0   200   400   600    800    1,000   1,200   1,400   1,600   1,800                                        0   200   400    600    800    1,000   1,200    1,400    1,600    1,800
                                               Right Lane Hourly Flow                                                                                      Right Lane Hourly Flow
and capabilities required for the purposes of conducting short-term license plate data
collection at temporary roadside locations. However, almost all of the issues related to
using video camcorders also apply to this method.
                                                                                            78
        In order to evaluate which data collection methods are suitable for a specific set
of roadway characteristics and traffic conditions, license plate data was collected in the
field for both the license plate matching technique (which requires that 4 characters of
the license plate be recorded) and the license plate follow-up survey technique (which
requires the full string and state-of-issuance so the address of the vehicle owner can be
obtained through the appropriate DMV).
        The process of recording a license plate string can be broken into two distinct
parts: 1) identifying the string, and 2) recording the string. Section 6.3 evaluates the first
step, while Section 6.4 discusses the second step of that process using the technology
and equipment discussed in Chapter 5.
        Before evaluating the various methods for license plate data collection, however,
Section 6.1 defines the rules for 4-character and full string license plate data collection,
and Section 6.2 illustrates and discusses the current license plate variations used in
Indiana and surrounding states that may be encountered when conducting a license
plate survey.
survey. Therefore, the only data that is required from each observation station is some
unique identifier for the vehicle. Recording four characters from the license plate will
virtually eliminate the possibility of a spurious match. This was discussed in Chapter 3.
The last four characters (not the first four) should be recorded. This is especially
necessary in Indiana, because the state uses county identifiers as the first two digits on
standard passenger vehicle license plates. Also, both letters and numbers should be
recorded. In the case that characters are stacked vertically, the top number should be
recorded first. Examples of various license plates will be shown in the Section 6.2 to
illustrate these rules.
          In addition to the standard license plates for passenger vehicles, there are many
special license plates that recognize other various groups. According to the Indiana
Bureau of Motor Vehicles website, there are currently special recognition plates for 23
colleges and universities, and 34 for other organizations ranging from military,
occupational, and other non-profit groups. Figure 33 illustrates a few of these license
plates.
        The general format of the special recognition plates issued by the Indiana BMV is
the same for all organizations. All contain a unique logo on the left, followed by two
stacked letters that are also unique to the organization (the stacked letters “HT” will not
appear on any other special recognition plate besides the environment plate), followed
by one, two, three, or four digits.
        Many other states also issue special recognition plates. They may or may not
have a similar format as Indiana. Therefore, if a license plate follow-up survey technique
is being conducted using the clipboard, audio, or laptop methods, it may be difficult to
obtain the state that issued that license plate, because it is less likely that the observer
will recognize the state issuing the license plate.
to be done: 1) locate the license plate on the back of the vehicle, 2) locate the first
character or fourth-to-last character on the license plate, and 3) identify (and memorize)
the license plate string (and state, if applicable). The reason the string has to be
memorized is that, depending on the speed of the vehicle and the recording method
being used, it is unlikely the license plate string will be visible at a second glance
(because the vehicle will have traveled beyond the limit of legibility).
        The value of this identification time is unknown, but important for a number of
reasons (as will be discussed later in this chapter). Therefore, it is important that it be
measured.
        The amount of time required to identify a license plate string is dependent upon a
number of things: the capabilities and condition of the person identifying the string (such
as age, familiarity, and fatigue), the location of the license plate on the vehicle, the type
of vehicle (passenger car, motorcycle, truck, trailer), the characteristics of the license
plate such as the contrast between background and digit colors, and characteristics of
the string such as font, color, syntax. In addition, the mix of vehicles on the roadway will
have some effect on the identification time, compared to an ideal (but unlikely) situation
in which all vehicles on the roadway have the same license plate style and syntax.
        The string identification time is important for several reasons. First, the length of
time that a license plate is legible to an observer on the roadside should be greater than
the string identification time. In other words, vehicles should be traveling slowly enough
or the observer should have visual acuity that is strong enough to enable him or her to
see the license plate string legibly for at least as long as it will take him or her to identify
it. Figure 37 illustrates this distance.
degrees from a line parallel to the road. The results of this data collection are presented
in sections 6.3.2 and 6.3.3.
        Even if all vehicles were traveling at a speed slow enough and the observer has
a visual acuity that is strong enough, some vehicles will be unidentifiable because of
missing, damaged, dirty, covered, or blocked license plates. These vehicles are not
considered in the distribution of identification times. For any given roadway, a small
percentage of vehicles will be unidentifiable which, if unknown, introduces error when
expanding the data. In this case, if a vehicle is unidentifiable at one observation station
it is also unidentifiable at the next observation station. This is unlike another type of
error, recording error, which will be discussed in Section 6.6. With recording error, an
incorrectly recorded vehicle at one observation station is independent of it being
incorrectly recorded at another observation station.
        The percentage of vehicles that are unidentifiable due to missing, damaged,
dirty, covered, or blocked license plates may vary from roadway to roadway; however, it
is not expected to be large. The estimate made as a result of this study from several
roadway observations is approximately 5% of all vehicles.
          Therefore, by solving for d in Figure 38, a person with 20/20 visual acuity will
theoretically be able to identify the characters on a license plate (approximately 2.75” in
height) at a distance of 158 feet. A person with 20/10 vision will be able to see the
characters at twice that distance (316 feet), and a person with 20/40 vision will be able to
see the characters at half that distance (79 feet).
          Depending upon the speed of the vehicle and the visual acuity of the observer, a
license plate will remain legible for a short period of time after it passes the observer.
Table 8 summarizes these times.
          It can be seen, then, that a license plate string is legible to an observer with
20/10 vision on a vehicle traveling at 5 mph for 43.1 s after the vehicle passes.
However, that same license plate string is only legible to an observer with 20/40 vision
for 10.8 s. Likewise, a license plate string is legible to an observer with 20/20 vision on a
                                                                                             89
vehicle traveling at 5 mph for 21.5 s. However, a license plate is only legible to the
same observer (with 20/20 vision) for 1.4 s if the vehicle is traveling 75 mph. This table
illustrates that time of legibility decreases as vehicle speed increases and visual acuity
decreases.
          Many of the Indiana license plates also use characters that are half the size as
the normal characters. In many cases, these characters also have to be identified and
recorded in accordance with the rules described in Section 6.1. Therefore, Table 9
illustrates the legibility distance for these half-sized characters and the length of time
they are legible from the roadside.
          After calculating the table above and performing some field data collection, it was
realized that the characters on license plates that were the most difficult to read (the
standard license plate shown in Figure 32) were, in fact, not legible at these distances.
Therefore, knowing that the visual acuity of the researcher is 20/15, the legibility
distance of standard Indiana license plates were measured on stationary vehicles. The
legibility distance of the small characters on the standard Indiana passenger vehicle
license plate was 72 feet (instead of 95 feet calculated in the table above). Therefore,
the legibility distances for other visual acuities were determined and the time lengths of
license plate legibility were recalculated using these values.
        There are several reasons the characters are not legible at the theoretical
distances calculated in Table 9. First, some characters are easier to see than others.
Also, the characters do not appear on a single solid background color. More importantly,
the characters are thinner (skinnier) than characters used to measure visual acuity.
Finally, the visual acuity of the observer may not be exactly 20/15.
        It can be seen from the table that, in general, the mean identification time
increases as vehicle speed increases. The primary exception to this was the mean
identification value of a full string at 15 mph (1.36 s), although the 4-character
identification time for the same parameters also seemed slightly high at 0.77 s. These
higher values may be explained by the fact that these values were the first to be
measured in the field, and the researcher became slightly better at identifying vehicles
over time. Another possibility is that, at lower vehicle speeds, the time length of legibility
is longer, so identifying vehicles quickly is not as critical as it is at higher vehicle speeds
because the observer has enough time to take a second look at the license plate.
distributions using the means and standard deviations in Table 11 and obtaining the
percentiles. These percentiles are the probability that a license plate will be recorded at
a given speed.
         However, because it is known that the mean identification time varies with
vehicle speed, different distributions must be drawn for different vehicle speeds. The
mean identification time for each vehicle speed was determined by conducting a linear
regression on the mean identification times collected in the field. (The full string mean
value at 15 mph was not included in the regression because it was considered unusually
high.)
         Figures 39 through 40 below illustrate the probability of identifying a standard
issue Indiana passenger vehicle license plate (with 1.25” characters) on a vehicle at any
speed for five different visual acuities ranging from 20/10 to 20/40. Figure 39 is for 4-
character string identification and Figure 40 is for full string identification.
                         1.0
                         0.9
                         0.8
                         0.7
                                                                                         20/10
           Probability
                         0.6                                                             20/15
                         0.5                                                             20/20
                         0.4                                                             20/30
                                                                                         20/40
                         0.3
                         0.2
                         0.1
                         0.0
                               0   10   20       30       40         50      60     70
                                               Vehicle Speed (mph)
1.0
0.9
                                          0.8
          Probability of Identification
                                          0.7
                                                                                                                  20/10
                                          0.6
                                                                                                                  20/15
                                          0.5                                                                     20/20
                                          0.4                                                                     20/30
                                                                                                                  20/40
                                          0.3
0.2
0.1
                                          0.0
                                                0   10      20       30        40         50       60        70
                                                                    Vehicle Speed (mph)
6.3.4   Maximum Vehicle Speed for Manual License Plate Data Collection
        In the previous section, the identification time, which is the time required to locate
and memorize a license plate string, was determined. This identification time should not
exceed the time-length of legibility for any given roadway speed and visual acuity. If so,
the license plate string on a vehicle traveling away from the observer will become
illegible before the observer has enough time to identify the string. Therefore, we can
calculate the maximum vehicle speed at which an observer with a specific visual acuity
should attempt to record license plate strings using manual methods.
        Table 12 recommends the vehicle speed above which manual methods
(clipboard, audio, and laptop) should not be used. Instead, the video method should be
                                                                                           93
used. These speeds in Table 12 are the points at which the probability curve for each
visual acuity begins to drop from 1.0.
       Table 12: Vehicle Speed (mph) above which Video Method is Recommended
                             1.25" Characters                2.75" Characters
        Visual Acuity   4-Character      Full String   4-Character     Full String
           20/10            45              35              100            70
           20/15            30              20               65            45
           20/20            20              10               45            30
           20/30             5              n/a              25            20
           20/40            n/a             n/a              15            10
       It can be seen in Table 12 that, even with 20/10 visual acuity, recording 4-
character license plates with a manual method is not recommended for vehicle speeds
greater than 45 mph. For an observer with 20/20 visual acuity, the maximum speed is
20 mph. For full string recording, manual methods may be used for vehicle speeds less
than 10 mph and visual acuity of 20/20, or less than 30 mph for visual acuity of 20/10.
Again, this is only recommended for recording the near lane.
       For vehicle speeds that exceed the maximum speed for identification with a
manual method, video recording is likely the best method. Video recording was
discussed in greater detail in Chapter 6.
       If conducting an OD study on a subset of vehicles, such as trucks, the video
method is recommended. This is because trucks may have multiple license plates
mounted in different locations, and are often dirty and harder to see than passenger
vehicle license plates. These factors generally make the identification time of a license
plate on a truck higher than that of a passenger vehicle.
       If video recording is not possible, other alternatives exist. For example, two
personnel could be used at each station – one for observing vehicles with binoculars,
and the second for recording the license plate strings. By doing this, the length of time a
license plate is legible increases significantly, but twice as many people are needed in
the field. This was not evaluated as part of this project. In addition, it may be possible to
reduce the vehicle speed on the road through reduced speed limits (using work zone
traffic control methods), but this would require permission and assistance from the DOT.
                                                                                              94
In addition, police enforcement may be needed to ensure that motorists actually reduce
speed enough to make the manual method successful.
        The average time to identify and record a 4-character license plate to a clipboard
was 2.99 s. Therefore, if the license plate of vehicle 1 is being identified and recorded,
and vehicle 2 is following vehicle 1 with headway of less than the recording time, the
license plate of vehicle 2 will not be recorded because the observer has not completed
recording of vehicle 1.
1.00
                        0.90
                        0.80
0.70 Clip-4
                        0.60                                                                                Clip-Full
          Probability
                                                                                                            Aud-4
                        0.50
                                                                                                            Aud-Full
                        0.40
                                                                                                            Lap-4
                        0.30                                                                                Lap-Full
                        0.20
                        0.10
                        0.00
                               0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
                                                                                               2000
                                                     Flow Rate (veh/h)
       Using Figure 41, the percent of vehicles captured can be determined for any flow
rate. If the capture rate is sufficient for the purpose of the study, that method can be
used. If not, however, the video method is recommended. Table 14 summarizes the
maximum flow rates for the 95%, 85%, and 75% capture rates (rounded to the nearest
25 vehicles).
       Table 14: Maximum Flow Rate (vphpl) using Manual Recording Methods
                                      95% Capture                     85% Capture                        75% Capture
        Method                     4-Char      Full                4-Char      Full                   4-Char      Full
        Clipboard                    50        25                   200        125                     350        225
        Audio                       100        50                   350        225                     650        375
        Laptop                       75        25                   250        100                     450        200
        This table only specifies flow rates for uninterrupted flow. If license plate data is
being collected from a roadway with interrupted flow (e.g., downstream from a traffic
signal), vehicles are more likely to be spaced closely together. This depends on the
amount of queueing at the signal. If there is a lot of queueing and vehicles are traveling
past the observation station in platoons, the video method is recommended for data
collection. In addition, this table does not account for observer fatigue.
        Chapter 8 evaluates how the capture rates affect the overall accuracy of the
estimated OD pairs.
vehicle onto the clipboard, audio tape, laptop, or videotape. Transcription errors, on the
other hand, are errors that are made after the data collection period while transferring
the data in its raw form on the recording medium into some database.
       For each of the clipboard, audio, and laptop methods, 100 4-character and full
license plate strings were recorded. During each of these sessions, a camcorder was
also set up and taped the same set of vehicles on the roadway. At the end of each
session, the data recorded on the clipboard, audio tape, and laptop were transcribed into
separate spreadsheets. Likewise, the video was reviewed, and all license plates strings
were transcribed into the appropriate spreadsheets. This transcription process was
repeated for each session. In the end, the spreadsheet for each session contained each
license plate four times: two columns of the license plate records from the clipboard or
audio tape, and two columns from the analysis of the corresponding video. In the case
of the laptop, there are only three columns because the license plates are entered
directly into the computer in the field and do not require transcription.
       By transcribing all of the data twice, the field and transcription errors, as well as
transcription time can be determined for each of the methods. These errors can occur
when the license plate is misread. An example of this type of error is mistaking an “O”
for a “Q”, “6” for an “8”, and “M” for an “N”. These errors can also occur when the
characters are identified correctly, but then incorrectly recorded. Examples of this type
of error include transposing letters (“68” instead of “86), speaking too quickly in the audio
recorder, and incorrect key entry on the laptop. Table 15 summarizes the errors for
each of the methods.
       From the table above, the total amount of error for any particular method after
field recording and transcribing the data is the sum of the two values shown. For
example, if full strings of the license plates are field recorded using the audio method
                                                                                              99
and subsequently transcribed, the total amount of error will be 4.5% (4.0% from the field
and 0.5% from the transcription). These errors, in effect, reduce the capture rates even
further, and must be considered when expanding the sample data to the entire
population. This is discussed in Chapter 8.
       The 4-character recording error for all methods is generally less than the full
string recording error. It seems logical that an observer is more likely to make a mistake
when recording more characters. To illustrate, it is generally easier to remember the last
four digits of a phone number than it is the entire phone number.
       The clipboard method had the least amount of field error among the three
methods. Generally, fewer errors are made with the clipboard than when keying entries
into a laptop. However, unlike the clipboard and audio methods, the laptop does not
have an extra transcription step, which adds another element of error to the first two
methods.
       The audio method had the most field error of the three methods. This could be
because, unlike the clipboard or laptop methods, the audio method does not require the
observer to take his or her eyes off the traffic, thus enabling him or her to continuously
record license plates. In some cases, the license plates appear faster than the observer
should attempt to record, which may cause the observer to make more of the mistakes
described above, or make transcription difficult because the characters are recorded too
quickly to understand during playback.
       For the laptop method, during field recording, license plate entries were keyed
into the laptop using the standard laptop keyboard with the numbers along the top.
During the transcription process, license plate entries were keyed in using a keyboard
with a number pad. This partially explains why the errors for field recording with a laptop
are greater than the transcription errors for all other methods. Generally, it is easier to
type numbers on a number pad rather than along the top of the keyboard, and
transcription is done indoors in a more comfortable environment.
       These field recording errors were measured under low speed conditions, and do
not reflect errors that may be encountered if manual recording is conducted on a speed
higher than those recommended by Table 12. In such cases, the error will likely be
significantly higher, which reduces the overall accuracy when expanding the data.
       Transcription errors for each of the methods are generally lower than field errors.
These errors are generally caused by poor handwriting (for the clipboard method), poor
                                                                                        100
audio such as background noise (for the audio method), and poor video quality (for the
video method). Again, license plates recorded by a laptop in the field do not require
transcription.
        When these errors occur, there is the possibility (for the license plate matching
technique) that some license plates that should be matched to another location will not
be matched. Therefore, the number of matches need to be increased to reflect these
errors. Likewise, for the follow-up survey technique, the license plate will not provide the
correct vehicle owner address (or an address at all) by searching the BMV database.
Therefore, the number of surveys sent out will be less than the number of license plates
recorded in the field, which will reduce the overall accuracy of the survey results.
        While the true error is not known in an actual OD study, the values summarized
in Table 15 may be used as a guideline when expanding the data only if, for manual
methods, the data was not collected from vehicle speeds that exceeded those
recommended in Table 12.
       For the clipboard method, the transcription rate is simply the total time required to
transcribe n license plates divided by the number of license plates. Therefore, if 10,000
4-character license plates are recorded during an OD study, it will take approximately
6.7 hours (2.4*10,000/3600) to manually transcribe them.
       For the audio and video methods, the transcription time required consists of L,
which is the total time length (in seconds) of audio or video tape recorded in the field
plus the average time paused per license plate times the number of license plates
recorded. For example, if 10,000 4-character license plates were recorded on 8 hours of
videotape, the approximate manual transcription time is 17.7 hours
([8*3600+3.5*10,000]/3600).
       Generally, the video method has the highest transcription time. However, it must
be noted that video also has higher capture rates and lower errors than the other
methods.
                                                                                          102
       While the previous chapter discusses traffic conditions as they relate to a license
plate survey, it is often unknown how accurate the results are once the data is analyzed.
This chapter describes methods to determine sample size for vehicle intercept and
license plate follow-up surveys. In addition, the license plate matching technique was
simulated at varying capture rates and the vehicle tracing technique was simulated at
varying probe samples to determine the effect on the overall accuracy of the estimation.
The simulation was conducted using Microsoft Excel. The details of the simulation for
each technique will be discussed in greater detail below.
        For example, consider the situation in which the actual traffic volume at Station 1
and Station 2 is 10,000 vehicles, and the true proportion p equals 0.25, which means the
total number of vehicles that pass both Stations 1 and 2 is 2,500 (0.25*10,000). By
capturing 384 vehicles at each station (3.8% capture rate), a number of matches will be
obtained. This situation was simulated 30 times, in which the number of matches
obtained in the sample ranged from 0 to 9. These samples were then expanded to
estimate the actual proportion p and number of vehicle passing both stations. While the
average p of these estimates was 25%, the standard deviation was 14.5% (1,454
vehicles). The estimates ranged from 0% (0 vehicles) to 61% (6,104 vehicles), which is
a range of -2,500 to 3,604 vehicles.
        This example illustrates the variability that can be encountered in the license
plate matching technique and the importance of collecting as many license plates as
possible.
        Even under the best circumstances, however, it is unlikely that all license plates
on a particular road can or will be recorded during an OD study. In the matching
technique, the license plate must be recorded correctly two separate times at two
separate locations for that OD pair to be recognized. Because of this, missing license
plates has the potential to introduce a significant amount of error. Therefore, it was
desired to simulate various scenarios to determine how the quantity of the data recorded
influences the accuracy of the projected results.
7.1.1   Simulation
        As a starting point for this analysis, assume there are two recording stations
(Station 1 and Station 2). A total of 1000 vehicles, each with a unique identifier (license
plate), pass by each station. Assume that 25% of all vehicles (250 vehicles) that pass
Station 1 also pass Station 2. The true proportion p between stations is 25%. This
percentage and number of vehicles are the values sought during an OD study. If 100%
of vehicles passing by both stations are captured, and all of the license plates at both
stations are recorded correctly, 250 matches would be found between the stations and
there would be zero error. However, this is an ideal situation and highly unlikely.
        Knowing that the capture rates are never 100%, the capture rates were varied at
each station. Vehicles were randomly selected from each station to simulate the capture
rate. The two stations were then compared and the number of matches between the
                                                                                          104
stations was noted. Because it is assumed that there were no recording errors, the
number of matches was divided by the capture rates at both stations to estimate the total
number of trips between the two stations during the study period.
        For example, assume again that a total of 1,000 vehicles pass both Station 1 and
Station 2, and that 25% of vehicles passing Station 1 also pass Station 2. Now assume
that 75% of vehicles passing Station 1 and 50% of vehicles passing Station 2 have their
license plates captured in the field. By comparing the capture lists from each station
(which were randomly selected from the full lists of all vehicles passing each station), the
number of matches is found, then divided by 0.375 (75%*50%) to estimate the
proportion and total number of trips between the two stations. The estimated number of
trips is compared to the actual number of trips (in this case, 25% of 1000 vehicles, or
250 vehicles), and the percent error between the estimated and actual trips is calculated.
The process of randomly selecting the percent of vehicles captured from each station,
estimating the total number of trips, and calculating the percent error was conducted 50
times for each true proportion and capture rates at both stations. The standard deviation
of the percent error was then calculated for each set. For this particular combination, the
standard deviation after 50 simulations was 7.2%. This means that, with 95%
confidence, the estimated number of trips for a true proportion of 25% is within ±14.1%
of the true number of trips.
        After these simulations, the true proportion p between the stations was changed
to 5%. Then, 50 simulations of the 3 combinations of capture rates were repeated. This
was also repeated for a true proportion of 25% and 50%.
        Finally, the traffic volumes at both stations were changed, during which 50
simulations were run on all combinations of true proportions and capture rates. The
traffic volumes at the stations were changed to 5,000 and 10,000 vehicles.
7.1.3   Results
        Figures 42 – 45 below illustrate the change in error as the true proportion of
traffic between stations changes. Figure 42 illustrates the error for a proportion of 1%,
and Figures 43 – 45 illustrate the error for proportions of 5%, 25%, and 50%,
respectively. On each figure, the product of capture rates is shown on the x-axis, and
each line represents a different traffic volume at the observation stations (assuming the
traffic volume is the same at both stations for simplicity).
                                                100%
                                                                                                                      25.0%
                                                90%
                                                                                                                      56.3%
          Standard Deviation of Percent Error
                                                80%                                                                   90.3%
                 (after 50 simulations)
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
                                                 0%
                                                       0%   5%   10%   15%     20%      25%       30%   35%   40%   45%   50%
                                                                                     Proportion
                                        60%
                                                                                                                  25.0%
  Standard Deviation of Percent Error                                                                             56.3%
                                        50%
                                                                                                                  90.3%
         (after 50 simulations)
40%
30%
20%
10%
                                        0%
                                              0%     5%    10%    15%    20%      25%        30%   35%    40%   45%   50%
                                                                                Proportion
                                        30.0%
                                                                                                                  25.0%
                                                                                                                  56.3%
  Standard Deviation of Percent Error
                                        25.0%
                                                                                                                  90.3%
         (after 50 simulations)
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
                                        0.0%
                                                0%    5%    10%   15%     20%      25%       30%   35%    40%   45%   50%
                                                                                Proportion
                                                14%                                                                     25.0%
          Standard Deviation of Percent Error                                                                           56.3%
                 (after 50 simulations)         12%                                                                     90.3%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
                                                0%
                                                      0%   5%   10%    15%    20%      25%       30%   35%      40%   45%   50%
                                                                                    Proportion
100%
                                               90%
         Standard Deviation of Percent Error
                                               80%
                (after 50 simulations)
70%
                                               60%
                                                                                                                         25.0%
                                               50%                                                                       56.3%
                                                                                                                         90.3%
                                               40%
30%
20%
10%
                                                0%
                                                      0   2000             4000          6000             8000   10000
                                                                 Traffic Volume at Observation Stations
70%
                                               60%
         Standard Deviation of Percent Error
                                               50%
                (after 50 simulations)
                                               40%                                                                       25.0%
                                                                                                                         56.3%
                                               30%                                                                       90.3%
20%
10%
                                               0%
                                                      0   2000            4000           6000             8000   10000
                                                                 Traffic Volume at Observation Stations
35%
                                               30%
         Standard Deviation of Percent Error
                                               25%
                (after 50 simulations)
                                               20%                                                                                    25.0%
                                                                                                                                      56.3%
                                               15%                                                                                    90.3%
10%
5%
                                               0%
                                                     0   1000   2000    3000    4000   5000    6000    7000     8000   9000   10000
                                                                       Traffic Volume at Observation Stations
20%
                                               18%
         Standard Deviation of Percent Error
16%
                                               14%
                (after 50 simulations)
                                               12%
                                                                                                                                      25.0%
                                               10%                                                                                    56.3%
                                                                                                                                      90.3%
                                               8%
6%
4%
2%
                                               0%
                                                     0   1000   2000    3000    4000   5000    6000    7000     8000   9000   10000
                                                                       Traffic Volume at Observation Stations
       Figure 46 – 49 show that, for any given product of capture rates, the error
decreases (at a decreasing rate) as traffic volumes increase. For example, Figure 49
shows that a 90.3% capture rate product has approximately the same accuracy when
                                                                                                                                    110
sampled on a roadway with 5,000 vehicles and 10,000 vehicles. The absolute number
of vehicles sampled, however, is much higher for the higher volume road.
       Figures 50 – 53 illustrate the percent error in the estimated trips for station traffic
volumes of 100, 1,000, 5,000, and 10,000 vehicles, respectively.
100%
                                               90%                                                           1% Proportion
                                                                                                             5% Proportion
         Standard Deviation of Percent Error
                                               80%
                                                                                                             25% Proportion
                                               70%                                                           50% Proportion
                (after 50 simulations)
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
                                                0%
                                                  20%   30%      40%       50%      60%        70%     80%      90%          100%
                                                                           Product of Capture Rates
Figure 50: Error by Capture Rate Product for Traffic Volume of 100 Vehicles
                                               60%
                                                                                                             1% Proportion
                                                                                                             5% Proportion
         Standard Deviation of Percent Error
                                               50%
                                                                                                             25% Proportion
                                                                                                             50% Proportion
                (after 50 simulations)
40%
30%
20%
10%
                                               0%
                                                 20%    30%     40%       50%       60%       70%     80%       90%          100%
                                                                          Product of Capture Rates
       Figure 51: Error by Capture Rate Product for Traffic Volume of 1,000 Vehicles
                                                                                                                                            111
                                                      30%
                                                                                                                     1% Proportion
20%
15%
10%
5%
                                                       0%
                                                         20%   30%       40%      50%       60%       70%     80%      90%       100%
                                                                                 Product of Capture Rates
Figure 52: Error by Capture Rate Product for Traffic Volume of 5,000 Vehicles
                                                      14%                                                            1% Proportion
           Standard Deviation of Percent Error
                                                                                                                     5% Proportion
                                                      12%                                                            25% Proportion
                  (after 50 simulations)
                                                                                                                     50% Proportion
                                                      10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
                                                      0%
                                                        20%    30%      40%      50%       60%        70%     80%      90%           100%
                                                                                  Product of Capture Rates
Figure 53: Error by Capture Rate Product for Traffic Volume of 10,000 Vehicles
       It can be seen in Figure 50 that, for any given proportion, the percent error
decreases as the product of capture rates increase. This is because, on average, the
sample will contain less variability in the number of matches obtained, and the number of
matches is not expanded as much. Table 17 summarizes the data used to build Figures
42 – 53.
                                                                                       112
         The capture rates become a bigger issue when the OD volumes of a subset of
vehicles, such as trucks, are being determined, because the traffic volume (number of
trucks observed) during the study period may be low, which increases the error in the
estimation. In this case, it is important that high capture rates are achieved. Because of
the factors cited in Chapter 7 and the lower accuracy mentioned above, the video
method is recommended for recording license plates in truck OD studies.
captured in the field and matched with an address at the BMV, which increases the
number of license plates that must be recorded.
       While the Travel Survey Manual (TMIP, 1996) provides sample size equations for
household travel surveys, it does not explicitly provide any details for determining
sample sizes for vehicle intercept surveys. In searching the literature for sample size
equations, two sources were found, as discussed below.
       The first equation was found in a document entitled “Traffic Surveys by Roadside
Interview” (The Highways Agency, 1992) published by several agencies in the United
Kingdom. The equation is:
                     pqN 3
        n=
             ⎡⎛ E ⎞ 2             ⎤
             ⎢⎜ ⎟ ( N − 1) + pqN ⎥
                                2
⎢⎣⎝ Z ⎠ ⎥⎦
                  Z 2 pq
        r=
             [           (
           (N − 1)W 2 + Z 2 pq   )]
       r = sample rate
       p = estimated proportion of total traffic at the station with a particular destination
       q=1–p
       W = desired accuracy (percent error * p)
       N = traffic volume at the survey station
       Z = normal variate for specified level of confidence
                                                                                         114
       The total number of required completed surveys n is simply the sample rate r
times the traffic volume N.
       While most reports on vehicle intercept and license plate follow-up surveys do
not explicitly state how the sample size was determined, many specify the sample rate at
which surveys were administered. For a specific confidence interval and error, the
sample rate increases as the true proportion p decreases. In addition, the sample rate
decreases as the traffic volume increases (the absolute number of samples increases,
however). This follows the results obtained from simulating the license plate matching
technique in the previous section in that, as the true proportion between two stations
decreases, the required capture rate increases (to estimate at the same level of
confidence and error). Therefore, the Hajeck’s equation is recommended for
determining sample sizes for vehicle intercept and license plate follow-up surveys.
       The sample size n obtained from the Hajek is actually the required number of
completed surveys. Therefore, depending upon the method used, this number will have
to be increased to account for non-response of surveys and errors in the data collection
process.
       For roadside interviews, a small percentage of drivers (generally <10%) will
refuse to participate in the survey. Therefore, the total number of vehicles stopped for
an interview should be n/0.9.
       For the postcard questionnaire handout method, generally 15% - 30% response
can be expected. Prior to the actual study, tests should be conducted to more
accurately determine the response rate. Therefore, the number of postcards handed out
should be approximately n/0.15 (Virkud, 1995).
       Finally, for the license plate follow-up survey technique, the number of license
plates recorded should again account for a 15% - 30% response rate, but also for errors
in recording license plates in the field (those that will not match with the BMV database)
which is assumed to be no greater than 10% based on the error analysis conducted in
Chapter 7. Therefore, the total number of license plates recorded should be
n/[0.15*0.90].
matrix changes with varying degrees of sampling cell phones or GPS systems (probe
vehicles).
7.3.1    Simulation
         This analysis assumes that the data obtained on probe vehicles was perfect,
meaning that the origin and destination zones in which a trip began and ended are
known.
         To start, a simple 4x4 zone OD matrix was constructed, with each OD pair
containing 100 trips. Therefore, the total number of trips in the matrix was 1600. In
reality, these zones could represent actual traffic analysis zones or entry/exit nodes on
the cordon line of a study area. A vehicle identifier was created for each vehicle that
contained the origin and destination. From the 1600 vehicles, a sample of vehicles was
chosen randomly, from which the probe vehicle OD matrix was created. The probe
vehicle OD matrix was expanded globally to determine an estimated OD matrix. This
estimated OD matrix was compared to the true OD matrix by calculating the root mean
square error (RMSE) and percent root mean square error (PRMSE). Tables 18 – 20
illustrate this process.
       The RMSE and PRMSE for the estimated OD matrix for Table 18 is 7.1 trips and
7.1%, respectively. The reason the PRMSE is calculated is to compare other OD
matrices that have a different total number of trips in the matrix. In addition, this matrix
was also sampled at different rates. Table 19 shows the probe vehicle OD matrix based
on a 50% sample (800 vehicles). The same matrix was estimated from probe vehicles
based on 1%, 5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%, and 99% sample rates as well.
       The process of obtaining the probe vehicle OD matrix was repeated 50 times for
each sampling rate. The mean of the RMSE and PRMSE were then calculated from the
50 simulations. Figure 54 illustrates the results of this analysis.
                                                100%
          Mean PRMSE of Estimated OD Matrices
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
                                                 0%
                                                       0%           20%          40%            60%           80%   100%
                                                                      Percent of Vehicles Sampled (Probe Sample)
        Figure 54 illustrates that as the number of probe vehicles increase, the PRMSE
decreases, which is expected. At 50% sampling, the mean PRMSE drops to
approximately 10%.
        Because this figure was developed only for a 16-cell matrix with an equal number
of trips per OD pair, it was desired to see how the error changed as the number of zones
of the true OD matrix changed or as the number of trips in a 16-cell matrix shifted so that
they were not uniformly distributed to each OD pair. This is discussed in the next
section.
7.3.2   Results
        The same procedure was conducted on other types of OD matrices to determine
the relative change in the accuracy of the estimated OD matrix. Tables 21 – 24 illustrate
the other types of OD matrices that were randomly sampled.
        Table 22: 4x4 1600-trip Matrix (OD3) without Uniformly-Distributed Cells or Zeros
         OD3        1       2         3         4       Total
          1         7       7         7         7         28
          2         7       7         7         7         28
          3         42      42        42        42       168
          4        344     344       344       344      1376
        Total      400     400       400       400      1600
       After the probe vehicle matrix was created based on the varying degrees of
sampling and then expanded to estimate the original OD matrix for each of the true OD
matrices listed above, the mean PRMSE was calculated from 50 simulations and
compared to mean of each of the other OD matrices to see how the accuracy differed.
Figure 54 illustrates these results.
100%
90%
80%
                  70%
                                                                                            OD1
                  60%
                                                                                            OD2
          PRMSE
50% OD3
                  40%                                                                       OD4
                                                                                            OD5
                  30%
20%
10%
                   0%
                         0%         20%         40%      60%         80%         100%
                                                Probe Sample
       It can be seen in Figure 54 that OD5 (Table 24) has the highest error, and OD4
(Table 23) has the lowest error for any given probe sample. In addition, OD1 (Table 18)
                                                                                           119
and OD3 (Table 22) have equal error. How can this be explained? It seems that, given
a particular probe sample rate, the overall error for the OD matrix depends upon the
average number of trips per non-zero OD pair. For example, OD1 and OD3 both have
100 trips per non-zero pair. OD2 (Table 21), which has slightly more (133 trips per non-
zero pair), has slightly better overall accuracy at the same sampling rate. The same is
true regardless of the number of zones in the matrix. OD5, which has 25 trips per non-
zero pair, has far less accuracy. The opposite is true for OD4, which has 1,000 trips per
non-zero OD pair.
       The problem in practice is that, if given a set of data from probe vehicles, the size
of the sample relative to the number of vehicles sought to be estimated in the OD matrix
(the sampling rate) is unknown. Without the sampling rate, it is difficult to expand the
probe vehicle matrix to the estimated OD matrix to obtain the number of trips per OD
pair. The probe sampling rate can be approximated by determining the average ratio of
traffic volumes from the sample to those of actual counts (such as tube counters) for a
number of links in the study area. This analysis, however, serves as a general starting
point for determining accuracy when estimating OD matrices from probe vehicle data
such as cell phones and in-vehicle GPS systems.
                                                                                          120
         The purpose of this chapter is to combine elements of the previous chapters, the
Travel Survey Manual, and other sources to assist a planner in determining the
technique and method by which an OD study should be conducted based on the
objectives of the study, cost constraints, desired accuracy of the results, and traffic
conditions in the study area.
           The vehicle intercept survey technique yields the same information as the license
plate follow-up survey technique. However, this technique requires direct interaction
with the driver, but also has much higher response rates. Therefore, this technique is
generally better suited for low - medium speeds and low flow situations.
           The vehicle tracing technique is similar to the license plate matching technique in
that it collects strictly information on the number of vehicle trips between OD pairs. In
addition, exact origins and destinations are obtained. This technique, however, does not
yield socioeconomic data on the persons sampled. This technique is currently being
used by only a few agencies on a large scale, and the results are not yet known.
8.3.1      Accuracy
           For the license plate matching technique, there are four basic methods for
collecting license plate data: clipboard, audio, laptop, and video. In Chapter 7, capture
rates for each of the manual methods (clipboard, audio, and laptop) were determined
based on vehicle speed and flow. In addition, the relative amount of field recording and
transcription error for each method was discussed. Chapter 6 evaluated the various
types of equipment and the issues associated with each when collecting license plate
data. Essentially, the video method should be used to achieve the most accurate results
at higher speeds and flows. However, if less accuracy is sufficient or video is cost-
prohibitive, manual methods can be used. The accuracy of the results using the license
plate matching technique was discussed in Chapter 8. Generally, as the study area
increases (in terms of geography, population, and number of external stations) the
proportions between stations decrease, which requires higher capture rates at each
station.
           If the license plate follow-up survey technique is used, license plate data has to
be collected. As was done with the license plate matching technique, Chapter 7
evaluates the vehicle speeds and flows at which the video method should be chosen
                                                                                             124
over manual methods for data collection. In addition, a survey has to be designed to
obtain the trip information, and a method for distributing and conducting the survey has
to be determined. While this was not evaluated as part of this project, the Travel Survey
Manual discusses these issues in greater length.
        If the vehicle intercept survey technique is used, there are generally two practical
methods available: roadside interviews or postcard questionnaires. Because postcard
questionnaires require less time with the driver, this method should be used in low -
medium flow situations. However, because the interview method achieves a higher
response rate and better accuracy, the two methods may be used in combination to
avoid traffic delays. The number of interviews completed, however, is dependent on the
number of interviewers on site and the flow of traffic into and out of the interview site.
The safety of the interviewers and drivers and the flow of traffic should not be
compromised in an attempt to conduct more interviews.
       In the table above, “study design” refers to planning of the study (selecting the
technique and method and determining the sites and the amount of personnel required
at each site). “Equipment” refers to that required for field data collection (including
safety equipment, recording equipment, communications equipment, etc.). “Observers”
refer to the cost associated with the number of observers and the length of the study
period. “Training” refers to any instruction given to the study staff prior to the actual data
collection period. “Data reduction” refers to the amount of time required to transfer raw
data into a form that can be analyzed. There are other costs, such as travel and per
diem, that should be the same for all of the studies (except vehicle tracing).
LIST OF REFERENCES